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International Finance

Chapter 7 The Balance of Payment II: Output, Exchange

Rates, and Macroeconomic Policies in the Short Run

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Notes to the Chapter

• In previous chapters, output is assumed to be exogenous. Now, we are to analyze how output and exchange rates are determined in the short run.

• In macroeconomics, monetary and fiscal policies only work in the short run. In an open economy, total spending is equal to C+I+G+NX. Therefore, in the short run, we can relate exchange rates to output, current account balance and analyze how policies could restore full-employment in an open economy.

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Chapter Outline

• Determinants of aggregate demand in the short run

• A short run model of output markets

• A short run model of asset markets

• A short run model for both output markets and asset markets

• Effects of monetary and fiscal policies in the short run

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Determinants of Aggregate Demand

Aggregate demand is the aggregate amount of goods and services that individuals and institutions are willing to buy:

AD = C + I + G + NX

– Assume investment expenditure and government purchases are fixed;

– What factors determine consumption spending and net exports (current account) in the short run?

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Determinants of Consumption Expenditure

• Disposable income: total income (Y) minus net taxes (T).

– More disposable income means more consumption expenditure, but consumption typically increases less than the amount that disposable income increases.

• Real interest rates may influence the amount of saving and spending on consumption goods, but we assume that they are relatively unimportant here.

• Wealth may also influence consumption expenditure, but we assume that it is relatively unimportant here.

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Determinants of Current Account

• Determinants of the current account include:– Disposable income: more disposable income

means more expenditure on foreign products (imports)

– Real exchange rate: EP*/P As real exchange rate increases, domestic goods

become cheaper. Therefore, exports to foreign countries increase and imports from foreign countries decrease.

The volume and the value of exports increase since exports are already measured in home currency. Would the volume and the value of imports measured in home currency both decrease?

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How Real Exchange Rate Changes Affect the Imports from Foreign Countries

• CA ≈ EX – IM.

IM (measured in home products) = (EP*/P)·Q*

1. The volume of imports that are bought by domestic residents falls.

2. The value of imports in terms of domestic products rises since the EP*/P increases.

3. So, what is the net effect of real exchange rate on imports? – Assuming volume effect is larger than the value effect, imports decrease when real exchange rate increases.

4. Therefore, current account increases as real exchange rate increases.

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Determinants of Aggregate Demand (cont.)

• Aggregate demand is therefore expressed as:AD = C(Y – T) + I + G + CA(EP*/P, Y – T, Y* – T*)

• Or more simply: AD = AD(EP*/P, Y – T, I, G, Y*-T*)

– T, I, G, Y*, and T* are assumed fixed;

– As Y increases, consumption rises but current account falls. Usually, consumption expenditure is greater than imports;

– An increase in the real exchange rate increases the current account, and therefore increases aggregate demand of domestic products.

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Short Run Equilibrium for Aggregate Demand and Output

• Equilibrium is achieved when the value of income from production (output) Y equals the value of aggregate demand D (expenditure approach on the national account of output).

Y = D(EP*/P, Y – T, I, G, Y*-T*)

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Figure: The Determination of Output in the Short Run

Aggregatedemand isgreater thanproduction: firms increaseoutput

Production is greaterthan aggregate demand: firmsdecrease output

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Short Run Equilibrium and the Exchange Rate: DD Schedule

How does the exchange rate affect the short run equilibrium of aggregate demand and output?

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Figure 2: Deriving the DD Schedule

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Short Run Equilibrium in Asset Markets

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Short Run Equilibrium in Asset Markets (cont.)

• When income and production increase, – demand of real monetary assets increases, – leading to an increase in domestic interest rates,– leading to an appreciation of the domestic

currency.

• The inverse relationship between output and exchange rates needed to keep the foreign exchange markets and the money market in equilibrium is summarized as the AA curve.

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Figure 3: The AA Schedule

Equilibrium exchange rate in foreign exchange market;Equilibrium output in money market.

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Figure 4: Short-Run Equilibrium: The Intersection of DD and AA

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Figure 5: How the Economy Reaches Its Short-Run Equilibrium

Exchange rates adjust immediately so that asset markets are in equilibrium.

The domestic currency appreciates and output increases until output markets are in equilibrium.

Temporary Changes in Monetary Policy

• An increase in the quantity of monetary assets supplied lowers interest rates in the short run, causing the domestic currency to depreciate (a rise in E).– The AA shifts up (right).

– Domestic products relative to foreign products are cheaper so that aggregate demand and output increase until a new short run equilibrium is achieved.

Figure 6: Effects of a Temporary Increase in the Money Supply

Temporary Changes in Fiscal Policy

• An increase in government purchases or a decrease in taxes increases aggregate demand and output in the short run.– The DD curve shifts right.

– Higher output increases demand of real monetary assets,

– thereby increasing interest rates,

– causing the domestic currency to appreciate (a fall in E).

Figure 7: Effects of a Temporary Fiscal Expansion

Figure 8: Maintaining Full Employment After a Temporary Fall in World Demand for Domestic Products

Temporary fall in world demand for domestic products reduces output below its normal level

Temporary monetaryexpansion could depreciate the domestic currency

Temporary fiscal policy could reverse the fall in aggregate demand and output

Policies to Maintain Full Employment After a Money Demand Increase

• Can you draw a diagram to demonstrate how a monetary / a fiscal policy restore the economy back to full employment level?

Permanent Changes in Monetary and Fiscal Policy

• “Permanent” policy changes are those that are assumed to modify people’s expectations about exchange rates in the long run.

Figure 9: Short-Run Effects of a Permanent Increase in the Money Supply

A permanent increase in the money supply decreases interest rates and causes people to expect a future depreciation, leading to a large actual depreciation

Figure 10: Effects of Permanent Changes in Monetary Policy in the Long Run

In the long run, output returns to its normal level, and we also see overshooting: E1 < E3 < E2

Higher prices make domestic products more expensive relative to foreign goods: reduction in aggregate demand

Higher prices reducereal money supply,Increasing interest rates, leading to adomestic currency appreciation

Figure 11: Effects of Permanent Changes in Fiscal Policy

An increase ingovernment purchases raisesaggregate demand

Temporary fiscalexpansion outcome

When the increase of government purchases is permanent, the domestic currency is expected to appreciate, and does appreciate.

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Monetary Policy and Fixed Exchange Rates

• When the central bank buys and sells foreign assets to keep the exchange rate fixed and to maintain domestic interest rates equal to foreign interest rates, it is not able to adjust domestic interest rates to attain other goals.– In particular, monetary policy is ineffective in

influencing output and employment.

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Figure 12: Monetary Expansion is Ineffective Under a Fixed Exchange Rate

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Fiscal Policy and Fixed Exchange Rates in the Short Run

• Temporary changes in fiscal policy are more effective in influencing output and employment in the short run:– The rise in aggregate demand and output due to

expansionary fiscal policy raises demand of real monetary assets, putting upward pressure on interest rates and on the value of the domestic currency.

– To prevent an appreciation of the domestic currency, the central bank must buy foreign assets, thereby increasing the money supply and decreasing interest rates.

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Figure 13: Fiscal Expansion Under a Fixed Exchange Rate

A fiscal expansion increases aggregate demand

To prevent the domestic currency from appreciating, the central bank buys foreign assets, increasing the money supply and decreasing interest rates.

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Fiscal Policy and Fixed Exchange Rates in the Long Run

• What happens to DD and AA curves in the long run as a result of an expansionary fiscal policy?

• What happens to nominal and real exchange rates in the long run?

Value Effect, Volume Effect and the J-curve

• If the volume of imports and exports is fixed in the short run, a depreciation of the domestic currency – will not affect the volume of imports or exports,

– but will increase the value/price of imports in domestic currency and decrease the current account: CA ≈ EX – IM.

– The value of exports in domestic currency does not change.

• The current account could immediately decrease after a currency depreciation, then increase gradually as the volume effect begins to dominate the value effect.

Figure 14: The J-Curve

J-curve: valueeffect dominatesvolume effect

volume effect dominatesvalue effect

Immediateeffect of real depreciationon the CA