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Global Environmental ChangeA Challenge for North America

Presentation to North America 2030An Environmental Outlook

Joint Public Advisory CommitteeCommission for Environmental Cooperation

 

G. A. McBean, Ph.D., FRSCInstitute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction

Departments of Geography and Political ScienceThe University of Western Ontario

London, Ontario

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Climate change - IPCC

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850).

We are seeing climate change and we are most of the cause.

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Assessments of Change in North America

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50 80 160 210 360

$80B US Hurricanes

PER YEAR

Earthquake

Tsunami

Floods, storms, droughts, …>75%

Global Impacts of Climate-relatedHazards

Earthquakes, tsunamis -7% - horrific

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Future climate changewarming °C per decade

0.13

0.2

ScienceUncertainty

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And the warmingwill continue for

centuries to follow

Emissions GtCO2 eq/yr

1.8C

2.8C

3.6C

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Responding to climate changewarming °C per decade

0.13

0.2

Reduce ScientificUncertainty

0.18Adaptation

ReduceEmissions

National and international

strategies

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Changing Precipitation

Hotter summers;Reduced rain

Much warmer winters;Increased precipitation

Water-sewage, agricultureForestry, floods, droughts

No one lives at the global average Medium (A1B) scenario (2090-2099): Global mean warming 2.8oC

Annual DJF JJA

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IPCC Polar Regions – Executive Summary• Arctic is one of most vulnerable regions.• … ongoing impacts of climate change on

terrestrial and freshwater species, communities and ecosystems

• … continue, with implications for biological resources

• … terrestrial cryosphere and hydrology are increasingly being affected by climate change. These changes will have cascading effects on key regional bio-physical systems and cause global climatic feedbacks, and in the north will affect socio-economic systems

• Continued changes … further impact the biomass and community composition of marine biota as well as Arctic human activities

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1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

2007

Extent (million sq km)

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When will the seaice disappear?-a decade?-decades?-by 2100?

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•Sea level is rising at the very upper limit of the IPCC 2001 TAR projections (i.e. 88 cm rise by 2100)

Sea Level Rise

Rahmstorf et al.

TAR lower limit

TAR and AR4 best estimate

TAR upper limit

Risks to coastal communitiesAdd in more severe storms-Storm surges-Additional Challenges-Some villages may need to be moved- Shishmaref, Alaska

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IPCC North America -Executive summary

• North America has experienced locally severe economic damage, plus substantial ecosystem, social and cultural disruption from recent weather-related extremes, including hurricanes, other severe storms, floods, droughts, heat waves and wildfires.

• The vulnerability of North America depends on the effectiveness and timing of adaptation and the distribution of coping capacity, which vary spatially and among sectors.

Number of hot days* per year

0 20 40 60 80

Victoria

Calgary

Winnipeg

London

Toronto

Quebec

Fredericton

2080-2100

2041-2069

2020-2040

1961-1990

Projected

Observed

*A hot day is defined as a day with a maximum

temperature above 30C

8 22 37 68

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and AnalysisCentre canadien de la modélisation et de l’analyse climatique

More frequent hot days – virtually certainWarm spells – very likely

“Without increased investments in countermeasures, hot temperatures and extreme weather are likely to cause increased adverse health impacts from heat-related mortality, pollution, storm-related fatalities and injuries, and infectious diseases.” (IPCC)

Today

mid-late this century

Natural ecosystems depend on temperature and Precipitation.

Increased risk of drought

Is Likely

Boreal forest under stressClimate moves north fasterthan the trees

“Climate change will constrain North America’s over-allocated water resources, increasing competition among agricultural, municipal, industrial and ecological uses.“Disturbances such as wildfire and insect outbreaks are increasing and are likely to intensify in a warmer future with drier soils and longer growing seasons.”(IPCC)

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$500M for the August 19, 2005 wind, rain

event

More heavy precipitation events – very likelyNeed for re-design of water systems for

means and extremes

“Climate change impacts on infrastructure and human health and safety in urban centres will be compounded by ageing infrastructure, maladapted urban form and building stock, urban heat islands, air pollution, population growth and an ageing population.” (IPCC)

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UNF Convention on Climate Change

prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference

Present

“People are actually questioning if the 2 oC benchmark that has been set is safe enough.” “Rising temperatures this century could bring risks for the extinction of up to 30% of the world's species. A creeping rise in sea levels could threaten Pacific islands and many coastlines.” Pachauri (IPCC).

EU Target

What is the position of North America’s Governments?

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IPCC - 2007 50% emissions cut by 2050

Impacts in 2050

Impacts in 2100

Parry et al 2008

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• Limiting impacts to acceptable levels by mid-century and beyond would require an 80% cut in global emissions by 2050. – Stabilization – 400-470 ppm

• “Residual damages will be great unless we invest in adaptation now.” – Parry et al., 2008

• “If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm.”– Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity

Aim? By J. Hansen, et al (2008)

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An Open Letter on Climate Change Science to all Canadian Elected Government Leaders - June 2008

• Twenty years ago, Canada, as a leader in international environmental issues, hosted a conference in Toronto entitled "Our Changing Atmosphere: Implications for Global Security" The participants concluded that: “Humanity is conducting an unintended, uncontrolled, globally pervasive experiment, whose ultimate consequences are second only to global nuclear war.“

• Addressing greenhouse gas emissions will require a polluter-pay approach and absolute emission caps. … we need a national adaptation strategy … concerned …pace … action … does not reflect …urgency of the threat.

• … sound policy continues to require good scientific input. • In less than 18 months, the global community will convene in

Copenhagen … We sincerely hope … our political leaders display the urgency and determination that we believe is required.

– Signed by 90 Canadian climate science leaders from the academic, public and private sectors across the country

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Some thoughts • What will be North America’s position on targets?

What is dangerous and how does that relate to emission?

• The vulnerability of North America depends on the effectiveness and timing of adaptation and the distribution of coping capacity.

• Need increased investments in countermeasures, rethinking infrastructure, economic policies.

• National and North American strategies– Mitigation – emission reduction – Adaptation – reducing vulnerability– Scientific research to reduce uncertainty and lay the

basis for governmental, corporate and individual decision making – informed choices

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The End

Thank you for your attention