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1
Geology 1001/1101
Sec 003 Chris PaolaClass 14: the Anthropocene
2
Chapter 14
HUMAN IMPACT ON
EARTH’S ENVIRONMENT
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
5
What is burning?
CH4 + 2O2 CO2 + 2H2O + energy
methane oxygen carbon dioxide water
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Relative carbon emissions
Fuel Kg CO2 / KWhr
Coal 0.37
Gasoline 0.27
Diesel 0.24
Natural gas 0.23
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1. Incoming solar radiation
What is the “greenhouse effect”?KEY IDEAS:
1. Energy must balance: output = input
2. Higher surface temp higher rate of energy radiation
2. Surface temp increases until energy balances
GHG
3. GHG return some of the outgoing energy back to earth as infrared radiation
4. Higher surface temp required to balance extra input energy
NO
AT
MO
SP
HE
RE
, e.
g.
Mo
on
WIT
H A
TM
OS
PH
ER
E,
e.g
. E
arth
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
Observed changes in GHG levels, 10 kyr
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
1995-2000 observed temperature w.r.t. 1940-1980 mean
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
2070-2100 numerical model prediction
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
25
GW: Points that (I think) both sides agree on
• CO2 is a greenhouse gas
• The observed increase in CO2 levels is anthropogenic
• The Earth’s climate has warmed over the past couple of decades
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but…
• CO2 is a greenhouse gas
• The observed increase in CO2 levels are anthropogenic
• The Earth’s climate has warmed over the past couple of decades
• CO2 is not the most effective greenhouse gas
• Other anthropogenic changes work against GW
• The Earth’s climate undergoes important natural cycles that are not well understood
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Both sides now…
• By not acting, we will create an environmental catastrophe
• A new “green” economy could be beneficial
• There is strong scientific consensus about GW
• By acting in haste, we will create an economic catastrophe
• A warmer climate could be beneficial
• Science is not a democracy; dissenting voices are being suppressed
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There is no way around the fact that this and other important decisions about the environment will have to be made with imperfect scientific understanding.
What is the best way to do this?
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What is the “Anthropocene”?
• Holocene: geologic epoch since last glacial advance
• Anthropocene: proposed current geologic epoch of strong human influence
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the Anthropocene
• Energy, Climate change, and CO2
• Land use
• Geo-engineering
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Geo-engineering
UM Institute on the Environment Momentum
2010 Spring
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Geo-engineering
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Geo-engineering
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Geo-engineering
Could stimulating plankton with Fe speed up the biological pump?
“Give me half a tanker of iron, and I’ll give you an ice age” – John Martin, former Director, Moss Landing Marine Lab
JMAJMA
Potential for Reducing CO2 Emissionsfrom Fossil Fuel Power Generation
COCO22 Capture and Storage Capture and Storage
MobilMobilSource: IEA Greenhouse Gas Source: IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D ProgramR&D Program
COCO22ConsumptionConsumption
COCO22
Storage
Storage
Gas, O
il,
Coal
Injection into Depleted Oil/Gas ReservoirsInjection into Depleted Oil/Gas Reservoirs
Increased ReforestationIncreased Reforestation
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The human footprint
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
Current: 6,818,119,630
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The human footprint
Land loss in coastal Louisiana associated with river diking & flood control
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Natural vs agricultural erosion
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Natural vs agricultural erosion
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The total earth moved in the past 5000 yr would be sufficient to build a 4000-m-high mountain range, 40 km wide and 100 km long.
If current rates of increase persist, we could double the length of our mountain range in the next 100 yr.
The human footprint
R. L. Hooke (2000) Geology 28:843
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The human footprint
Sanderson, E. W. et al. (2002) Bioscience, 52, 891
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The human footprint
Sanderson, E. W. et al. (2002) Bioscience, 52, 891-904.
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The human footprint
Sanderson, E. W. et al. (2002) Bioscience, 52, 891
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How far to the nearest road?
Fraction of US land area that is:
• Less than 127 m (417 ft) = 20%
• Less than 382 m (1253 ft) = 50%
• More than 1000 m (0.6 mi) = 18%
• More than 5000 m (3.1 mi) = 3%
Coterminous US, from Riitters, K. H., and J. D. Wickham (2003), Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 1, 125-129.
Jordan, The Essential Earth 1e © 2008 by W. H. Freeman and Company
47