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From “Walled Gardens” into the “Telecom Chaos”
Key trends in Contemporary Communication Systems
Jens ZanderDirector, Wireless@KTH
Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm
Outline – Technology track
• Key trends and challenges (JZ)• Key area: Infrastructure (Jan Markendahl)
– Mobile Broadband and the ”Revenue Gap” (”teaser” today)
• Key area: Services & user behavior (Zary Segall)– What would Google do ?
• Meeting 2: Networks & Services (Gerald Maguire)• Meeting 3: Personal logistics & Terminals (Mark
Smith)• Meeting 4: Infrastructure deployment (Jan
Markendahl)
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Part I:Key challenges & trends
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Trend 1:
Much more for (even) less
The Long term Vision: Wireless - A “Disappearing”
TechnologyPenetration
Time
Exclusive
”Everyone” has it
Vanishing (”Hidden”) technology
”Things that communicate”Personal & homenetworks
Mobile access anytime – anywhere
1 device/person 10 devices/person 100-1000 devices/person
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Trend 1: (Much) More for lessFirst fixed IP access – then mobile
access
Vision 2000• Mobile Web-browsing – the
multimedia service platform• Interactive information services• Streaming audio/video• Rich exponentially growing content
• Adapted to small terminals
+ Location & context aware services+ Same price as mobile telephony TODAYs reality:• Same price as home-ADSL • Mobile telephony prices
dropping• Take-off was delayed – but
happening now
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Traffic volumes rapidly increasing
• Flat rate tariffs create data traffic boom
• Typical users:– EDGE 50 MB/month– HSPA 800 MB/month
• Revenues are not following. Example:Data traffic + 300%Revenues +11%
Traffic
Revenue
TimeVoice dominated Data dominated
Revenue gap
Volume
(”major operator data”)
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Why is it so expensive ?
• High bandwidth• Wide Area• High speed mobility &
lossless handover• Real time/low delay
1 Mbit/s at GSM service quality 50-100 times more expensive
)(QfABN
Cserviceuser
user
system
The 4 cost drivers
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The street light analogy
Why are parts of Sweden dark at night ?– Technical limitations ?– User demand ?– Economical limitations ?
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Trend 2:
Bits are just bits and can be produced anywhere –
now also in the mobile domain!
Services provided by anyone- except the network operator ?
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Open IP access- ”Intelligence Outside”
”Dumb”IP-
connectivity
”Dumb”IP-
connectivity
”Intelligent Network” IMS
”Intelligent Network” IMS
Service 1
Service 2Service 3 Service n
Content provider
UserTerminal
Service 1
Service 2
Service 3
Service n
Content provider
User Terminal
• High QoS• Simple Terminals• Low flexibility• High cost• Required for new demanding applications
• End-end principle• Best effort• High flexibility• Low cost• Mature application platforms
The Walled Garden The Outback
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Computing in the cloud
Arbitrary distribution and physical location of resources:
– Computation– Storage– Sensors – ….
”Infinite” bandwidth
Services not tied to neither networks nor access
The changing value chainAffecting industry players
Telcooperatorvendors
consumers
’90s and before
today and the future
Telcooperatorvendors
evolved users
Mobile services .. ”over the top”
• Sufficient mobile bandwidth:
• Services ”over the top” (IP)
• No need for networked services
• New Actors:– Apple (Appstore)– Google (Android Market)
• New Service paradigm– Try & Buy
• Death of SMS, Voice ..?(Google Talk ?)
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Some consequences: Mobile TV
• Mobile TV –– Operator provided service– Streaming– Real-time– Existing TV-content
is dead !
• Personal Multi Media– Individual personalized content– Non-real time – on demand– Time-shifting
is ”out there” and lives - but without access operator intervention!
Mobile
TVISDN WAP
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Questions for discussions
• Where is TS going in mobile ?
– High quality bit-pipe provider?
– Content aggregator – (e.g. Mobile entertainment) ?
– Generic IP based Services
– Business solutions ….
Part II:Challenges and potential Showstoppers ahead ….
The Challenges & potential ”Showstoppers”
• Spectrum• ”Shannon”• Energy• Cost• Complexity – Reliability• Legal issues• Health Hazards ?• New business models ?
Do we need more spectrum forwireless access services ?
• Basically no: Higher data rate – short range communication
• But: More spectrum – cheaper systems – less energy
Low power
Low InfrastructureCost
SpectrumEfficiency
Opportunistic (Overlay) Access (”Cognitive Radio”)
Dynamic Access Modes for White Space Access ?
Underlay Access (”UWB”)
Temporarly unused spectrum, ”holes”
Primary users
Business implications ?
• From ”exclusive ownership” – to commodity
• Lower price of spectrum due to– Increased supply of spectrum– Increased interference from
secondary users
• Easier access to spectrum - more competition
• More difficult to guarantee service ?• New spectrum business models ?
Energy
• Global scale: – Energy consumption of
IT-technology not neglectable (2% of CO2-emission)
– 3G technology example• Base station RF output (at antenna): 60 W• Power input: 6 kW (Efficiency 1%)• Reason Spectrum efficient – not power efficient
• Application scale:– More processing, more power- battery life
does not keep up– Low cost low maintenance (disposable)
devices _ extremely low power consumption
Storage
• Mobile Storage rapidly increasing– 100KB 1TB .. and more
• Cost down– HD < 10c / GB– Flash < 1$/GB
• Always connected and everything stored centrally OR Everything in the devices ?
• New storage based internet paradigm ?
0.1-1.0 billion of usersComplex networks Complex expensive devices
• Complex to use• Does not scale
10-100 billion of users and devicesEven more complex networks Complex but in-expensive devices
• Simple to use and deploy • Extremely reliable• Affordable for everyone
Yesterday Tomorrow
The Vision
Complexity & Reliability
Some conclusions
• Key Opportunities:– Moore’s law keeps going: more memory, more
processing in less space– Plug-and-play / Zero configuration systems
• Key challenges:– Energy – both global and battery life– Spectrum – plenty availblable but difficult to access– Complexity – Reliability
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www.wireless.kth.se
