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Feeding the 10 BillionFeeding the 10 Billion

The future of Land, Yields and InputsThe future of Land, Yields and Inputs

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How can we consume more grain than we produce in a year?Why does grain production fluctuate each year?What trends do you see?

We are alreadyusing:40% of the land70% of the water

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How does agriculture harm the How does agriculture harm the environment?environment?

Uses and pollutes waterUses and pollutes water Destroys natural ecosystemsDestroys natural ecosystems Chemical fertilizers/pesticides/herbicidesChemical fertilizers/pesticides/herbicides

harm ecosystemsharm ecosystems harm humansharm humans pollute waterpollute water

Responsible for 33% of Greenhouse GasesResponsible for 33% of Greenhouse Gases fossil fuels for production, transportationfossil fuels for production, transportation methane produced by manuremethane produced by manure deforestation takes releases carbon stored in trees (12%!!)deforestation takes releases carbon stored in trees (12%!!)

Soil erosion/degradation/salinizationSoil erosion/degradation/salinization

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How have we gotten where we are How have we gotten where we are today?today?

Until 1960 increase in production = expansion Until 1960 increase in production = expansion (more land area under cultivation) (more land area under cultivation)

Green Revolution 1940s-70sGreen Revolution 1940s-70s New varieties of high yielding cropsNew varieties of high yielding crops Increased irrigationIncreased irrigation Increased use of fertilizers and pesticides.Increased use of fertilizers and pesticides.

Since 1960 increase in production = intensification Since 1960 increase in production = intensification (higher yield) (higher yield)

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Our future: Expansion or Our future: Expansion or Intensification?Intensification?

Most (if not all) arable land is under cultivation. (40% of total Most (if not all) arable land is under cultivation. (40% of total land area!)land area!)

Some remaining arable land is undisturbed natural Some remaining arable land is undisturbed natural ecosystems (forest, prairie, wetland) ecosystems (forest, prairie, wetland)

Think about PB ConservancyThink about PB Conservancy

Some is developed for urban/human useSome is developed for urban/human use Think about our football practice fieldsThink about our football practice fields

Is increasing the number of acres we farm the Is increasing the number of acres we farm the answer? Probably not, or at least not muchanswer? Probably not, or at least not much

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Hey, what about organics?Hey, what about organics?

Many students thought that eating organic is a Many students thought that eating organic is a way to reduce your environmental impact. way to reduce your environmental impact.

Is that true?Is that true?

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What is Conventional Ag?What is Conventional Ag? ““modern” farms that you see driving around the modern” farms that you see driving around the

midwest.midwest. Usually large “mono-crop” farms. (large areas with Usually large “mono-crop” farms. (large areas with

one crop/animal)one crop/animal) Use chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides as Use chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides as

needed to improve yieldsneeded to improve yields Use irrigation as neededUse irrigation as needed Very little human labor, mostly large machinery to Very little human labor, mostly large machinery to

plant and harvest.plant and harvest. Often use Genetically Modified (GMO) varietiesOften use Genetically Modified (GMO) varieties

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Why choose Conventional?Why choose Conventional?

High yield per acre (a lot of food produced in High yield per acre (a lot of food produced in a small area)a small area)

Less expensive for the consumerLess expensive for the consumer Uses existing technologies Uses existing technologies

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What is Organic Agriculture?What is Organic Agriculture? Uses natural fertilizers (manure and compost) instead of Uses natural fertilizers (manure and compost) instead of

chemicalschemicals Uses natural techniques to control pests instead of pesticides.Uses natural techniques to control pests instead of pesticides.

beneficial insects, birdsbeneficial insects, birds Intercropping (planting different plants close together)Intercropping (planting different plants close together)

Uses natural techniques to control weeds instead of herbicidesUses natural techniques to control weeds instead of herbicides Crop rotationCrop rotation Weeding Weeding MulchingMulching

Feed animals organic feed, no hormones or antibioticsFeed animals organic feed, no hormones or antibiotics No rules for irrigationNo rules for irrigation Uses a lot of human labor Uses a lot of human labor No Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs)No Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs)

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Why choose Organic?Why choose Organic? Some evidence of health benefits (increased Some evidence of health benefits (increased

nutrients)nutrients) Avoids chemical pollution (pesticides, Avoids chemical pollution (pesticides,

herbicides, fertilizers) herbicides, fertilizers) May provide better habitats for animals, birds May provide better habitats for animals, birds

and insectsand insects Often, but not always, less fossil fuel useOften, but not always, less fossil fuel use

But will it provide a solution to our problem But will it provide a solution to our problem of feeding 10 billion without ruining our of feeding 10 billion without ruining our natural world?natural world?

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Is organic the answer?Is organic the answer?

Benefits of organic:Benefits of organic: Less pollution, CO2Less pollution, CO2 Healthy soilHealthy soil Healthy peopleHealthy people

Costs of organic:Costs of organic: Less yield per acre in some casesLess yield per acre in some cases No GMO crops allowedNo GMO crops allowed Higher pricesHigher prices

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The future of yields…The future of yields… Using organic techniques, many calculate that we could only Using organic techniques, many calculate that we could only

feed 4 billion. (currently 6.7 billion)feed 4 billion. (currently 6.7 billion) Remember, increased yield since the 1960s came about Remember, increased yield since the 1960s came about

through fertilizers, irrigation, new varieties, and pest/weed through fertilizers, irrigation, new varieties, and pest/weed control.control.

However, some crops (corn/soy) have the same yield using However, some crops (corn/soy) have the same yield using organic techniques (and better env. outcomes).organic techniques (and better env. outcomes).

If we can’t increase global yields, we simply can’t feed If we can’t increase global yields, we simply can’t feed everyone.everyone.

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The future of GMOs…The future of GMOs…

Currently not considered organic.Currently not considered organic. Higher Yields: Higher Yields: more grains per plantmore grains per plant New varieties are disease/pest resistant.New varieties are disease/pest resistant.

reduced need for chemical pesticidesreduced need for chemical pesticides Withstand drought, heat, windWithstand drought, heat, wind

Shorter plants, quick to ripen, need less water.Shorter plants, quick to ripen, need less water. Environmental BenefitsEnvironmental Benefits

May reduce or eliminate the need for pesticides May reduce or eliminate the need for pesticides May reduce the need for irrigation (good for soil)May reduce the need for irrigation (good for soil) Higher yields reduce pressure to deforest landHigher yields reduce pressure to deforest land

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How is a crop genetically How is a crop genetically modifiedmodified

Popular portrayal: Frankenfood!Popular portrayal: Frankenfood! insert a pig gene into a tomato.insert a pig gene into a tomato. make corn that can withstand herbicides or that emits pesticidesmake corn that can withstand herbicides or that emits pesticides

Many people are worried about the unknown effects off these kinds of Many people are worried about the unknown effects off these kinds of techniques techniques

create “super weeds” or kill butterfliescreate “super weeds” or kill butterflies Human health?Human health? Disturbing (disrupting natural processes)Disturbing (disrupting natural processes)

Another, less “Frankenfood: technique, marker assisted breeding Another, less “Frankenfood: technique, marker assisted breeding Speeds up natural selection (similar to old school plant breeding)Speeds up natural selection (similar to old school plant breeding) Does not introduce outside genes from other speciesDoes not introduce outside genes from other species More naturalMore natural

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Towards a sustainable Towards a sustainable future…future… Combine Organic, conventional, and GMOsCombine Organic, conventional, and GMOs

Need to find a way to incorporate beneficial organic Need to find a way to incorporate beneficial organic techniques that techniques that reduce pollution/chemicalsreduce pollution/chemicals Maintain soil healthMaintain soil health Have high yieldsHave high yields

Also use new and proved technologies to close the Also use new and proved technologies to close the yield gap: yield gap: GMO cropsGMO crops limited application of fertilizerslimited application of fertilizers Improved efficientlyImproved efficiently Local and urban production systemsLocal and urban production systems