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Extreme Weather Impacts on InfrastructureExtreme Weather Impacts on Infrastructure

G. L. Geernaert, S. J. FernandezG. L. Geernaert, S. J. Fernandez

Los Alamos National LaboratoryLos Alamos National Laboratory

Los Alamos, NMLos Alamos, NM

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OutlineOutline

Infrastructure interdependenceInfrastructure interdependence The social dimension and issuesThe social dimension and issues LANL programmatic capabilitiesLANL programmatic capabilities Needs and opportunitiesNeeds and opportunities

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Infrastructure interdependenceInfrastructure interdependence

Safety: managing a crisis-populationSafety: managing a crisis-population Scenarios of evacuation decision-makingScenarios of evacuation decision-making Communicating to diverse population groupsCommunicating to diverse population groups Law enforcement and state/federal aidLaw enforcement and state/federal aid

Transport networks: scenariosTransport networks: scenarios Energy securityEnergy security

Predicting grid break-down and recoveryPredicting grid break-down and recovery Water security: clean waterWater security: clean water Food securityFood security Financial institutions, security, schools, etc.Financial institutions, security, schools, etc. Human capital: localHuman capital: local Coastal: Cultural and ecological heritageCoastal: Cultural and ecological heritage

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Social dimension and issuesSocial dimension and issues

Communicating to the publicCommunicating to the public Macroscale: federal/stateMacroscale: federal/state Executing decisions: localExecuting decisions: local

Community networks well understoodCommunity networks well understood Religious affinity groupsReligious affinity groups Ethnic affinity groupsEthnic affinity groups Other affinity groupsOther affinity groups

Reverse migrationReverse migration Local cultural “ownership” by communityLocal cultural “ownership” by community

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The Interaction of Extreme Weather Events and the The Interaction of Extreme Weather Events and the Nation’s InfrastructuresNation’s Infrastructures

Coupled Coupled Application Application Models for Models for Infrastructure Infrastructure with Weather with Weather & Climate& Climate

Maintenance of Daily Functioning of U.S. Society in the Face of Threats to our Infrastructure

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Requirements Developed from:Requirements Developed from:

Interagency Hurricane Conference – Joint Interagency Hurricane Conference – Joint NOAA(DOC) – NSF Research requirements under NOAA(DOC) – NSF Research requirements under umbrella of Federal Coordinator for Meteorologyumbrella of Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

Joint Planning Conference of the Army Corps of Joint Planning Conference of the Army Corps of Engineers and FEMAEngineers and FEMA

National Laboratory – CIP – FSSC Conferences of National Laboratory – CIP – FSSC Conferences of the DOE Visualization and Modeling Working Groupthe DOE Visualization and Modeling Working Group

White House Office of Science and Technology White House Office of Science and Technology Policy – Katrina Lessons LearnedPolicy – Katrina Lessons Learned

US Chamber of Commerce – American US Chamber of Commerce – American Meteorological Society Policy ForumMeteorological Society Policy Forum

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A National Integrated Modeling CapabilityA National Integrated Modeling Capability

A capability to transform numerical weather A capability to transform numerical weather predictions to the final impact on engineered predictions to the final impact on engineered infrastructuresinfrastructures

A capability to transform numerical weather A capability to transform numerical weather predictions to the final impact on non-engineered predictions to the final impact on non-engineered infrastructuresinfrastructures

A series of model relationships can begin to be A series of model relationships can begin to be woven into a roadmap of inputs/outputs for:woven into a roadmap of inputs/outputs for: extreme weather modeling, extreme weather modeling, the infrastructure impact and cascading modelingthe infrastructure impact and cascading modeling the debris, waterways and flooding modeling the debris, waterways and flooding modeling the transportation and response models the transportation and response models Demographic, social, and economic implications.Demographic, social, and economic implications.

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LANL Critical Infrastructure Projects & LANL Critical Infrastructure Projects & TechnologiesTechnologies

Dept. of Energy Dept. of Homeland Security

Office of Energy Assurance

(various)

National Infrastructure Simulation &

Analysis Center(NISAC)

Dept. of Defense& Other Agencies

Science & Technology Directorate

Protective Security Division

Visualization& Modeling

Working Group(VMWG)

Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision

Support System(CIP/DSS)

SP

ON

SO

RS

PR

OJE

CT

ST

EC

HN

OLO

GIE

S

Scenario Library Visualizer

(SLV) IEIS

S

Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision

Support System(CIP/DSS)U

PM

oST

AdH

opN

et

Epi

Sim

S

WIS

E

. . .

CO

LLA

BO

RA

TO

RS ANL

LANLNETLORNLSNLUSACE

ANLLANLSNL

LANLSNL

(various)

(various)

TR

AN

SIM

S

Typical Applications Situational awareness Contingency planning Independent

assessment & verification

Event reconstruction Consequence

assessment Recovery & restoration

operations Security & reliability

improvement Deployment of

protective forces

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CIP/DSS ArchitectureCIP/DSS Architecture

Regional / National Scale Model(SNL Lead)

Metropolitan Scale Model(LANL Lead)

DecisionAnalysis

Framework(ANL Lead)

Disruption Cases&

Mitigation Strategies

Consequence Metrics Database

Trade-off Preferences and Risk Attitude Profiles

Human Health & Safety Economics Environmental Socio-Political National SecurityDecision Metrics

Human Health & Safety Economics Environmental Socio-Political National SecurityDecision Metrics

Interdependencies

Evaluation and Comparison of Alternatives

Example Analysis 1: Telecommunications

Example Analysis 1: Telecommunications

Example Analysis 2:Agricultural Disease

Example Analysis 2:Agricultural Disease

Future AnalysesDHS Basis Scenarios, …

Future AnalysesDHS Basis Scenarios, …

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Unifying IdeaUnifying Idea

Develop standard protocols in a service-Develop standard protocols in a service-oriented architecture (SOA) for supplying oriented architecture (SOA) for supplying weather and climate data to infrastructure weather and climate data to infrastructure models.models.

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Quick-Response ProcessQuick-Response ProcessTypical LANL Products

experimental

experimental

expe

rimen

tal

time

0 hours 1 hour 4 hours2 hours

Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Center

Official NHC Products (Track, Intensity)

NCAR 12km and 4km WRF Hurricane Outputs

& RTFDDA Outputs

Damage Intensity Contours

Electric Power GridDamage & Restoration

Telecommunications Damage

Business & Economic Impacts

Publicly Posted NWP Model Outputs[GFDL, GFS,

NAM/ETA, SREF]

US Army Corps of Engineers

(Storm Surge, Flooding)

Population Effects

Natural Gas & PetroleumDamage & Restoration

Transportation Damage

Public Health Effects

Environmental Effects

Other Flood Impacts

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How might a roadmap provide the basis of a credible proposal?How might a roadmap provide the basis of a credible proposal?

One possible roadmap that integrates the extreme One possible roadmap that integrates the extreme weather models, infrastructure failure and weather models, infrastructure failure and restoration models, the USACE emergency restoration models, the USACE emergency response models, and economic models is response models, and economic models is described as an example. described as an example.

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Landfall and wind calculationsLandfall and wind calculations

Electric Transmission Lines& Power Plants

Natural Gas Pipelines, ProcessingPlants & Compressors

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Hurricane Dennis Outage Restoration

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Time History – Actual vs. Predicted Time History – Actual vs. Predicted

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Hurricane Katrina Ice ModelLandfall Plus About 24 Hours

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SummarySummary

The time may be right to propose a series of model The time may be right to propose a series of model relationships can begin to be woven into a roadmap relationships can begin to be woven into a roadmap of inputs/outputs for:of inputs/outputs for: extreme weather modeling, extreme weather modeling, the infrastructure impact and cascading modelingthe infrastructure impact and cascading modeling the debris, waterways and flooding modeling the debris, waterways and flooding modeling the transportation and response models the transportation and response models Demographic, social, and economic implications.Demographic, social, and economic implications.

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Uncertainties, needs and opportunitiesUncertainties, needs and opportunities

UncertaintiesUncertainties Hurricane intensification, then trackHurricane intensification, then track Structural collapse – flying debris induced damageStructural collapse – flying debris induced damage

NeedsNeeds Better wind field predictionsBetter wind field predictions Preparedness much further in advancePreparedness much further in advance Strategies for public warning, communicationsStrategies for public warning, communications

OpportunitiesOpportunities HiFiHiFi Lessons learned translated into new strategiesLessons learned translated into new strategies