1 Elective 9 - PPGIS and not Resource Management and Conflict Planning J.J. Verplanke Conflict Management and Resource Planning

1 Elective 9 - PPGIS

and not

Resource Management

and

Conflict PlanningJ.J. Verplanke

Conflict Management

and

Resource Planning


Framework: issues

Context of PSP Planning of Resources Management of Resources Use of Resources

GI as record of Changes and Dynamics

Specific actors


Framework: actors

Planners Experts Managers Decision-makers Users Stakeholders

SCI to show Changes and Dynamics

Specific knowledge


Framework: knowledge

Expertise Science & Technology Policy Governance & Institutions Indigenous Experience/operational

Combining/sharing information = knowledge

Specific environment


Social Social cultural cultural systemsystem

Ethics

Institutions

Values

Planning environment

Policy & GovernanceInstitutional systemInstitutional system

PlanningPlanning

Impact

Ecological systemEcological system

Cost & Benefit

Economic systemEconomic system


Decision-making environment

Policy & Governance

Physical or Physical or Ecological Ecological ModelModel

Financial or Financial or Economic ModelEconomic Model

Institutional ModelInstitutional Model

Social Social CuCultural ltural ModelModel

Ethics

Decision-making ModelDecision-making ModelInstitutions

Values


The Gears of Planning

SocialSocial CuCultural ltural ModelModelFinancial Financial

or or Economic Economic

ModelModel

Institutional Institutional ModelModel

Physical Physical or or

Ecological Ecological ModelModel

Decision-Decision-making making ModelModel


Decision-Making Process

Stakeholder analysis participation relationship

Problem&

Conflict

Information&

Knowledge

Decisio

n to

ols &

tech

niq

ues

Co

mm

un

ication

, E

du

cation

& P

articipatio

n

Neg

otiatio

n, M

ediatio

n,

Arb

itration

Decision&

Consensus &

Resolution


Planner

Planner as a coordinator, Planner as a facilitator, Planner as a negotiator,

Planner as a meddler?


Planning in Theory

1. Find a problem

2. Make people aware

3. Let people participate

4. Make people understand

5. Construct a solution

6. Involve people in decision


Planning in Practice

1. Find a problem

2. Make people aware

3. Propose a solution

4.4. Make people angryMake people angry

5.5. Try to explainTry to explain

6.6. Control damageControl damage


Planning as a means to:

Make choices Allocate resources Achieve goals Schedule future activities

Create conflicts (inherent)

Mitigate conflicts (consequence)


Achieving Objectives


Achieving Objectives

Impossible to satisfy everybody

NIMBY LULU BANANA

Not In My Back Yard Locally Unwanted Land Use Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone


Stakeholders

Reading

“Stakeholder methodologies in natural resource management: a review of principles, contexts, experiences and opportunities”

Grimble, R. and Wellard, K. 1997;

Natural Resource Institute, the University of Greenwich, Kent, UK; Agricultural Systems, vol. 55, No. 2, p. 173-193.


Stakeholders

Reading

“Stakeholder Analysis”

Groenendijk 2002, ITC

19 Elective 9 - PPGISNatural ResourcesNatural ResourcesStakeholdersStakeholders

?

Stakeholders with different interestsStakeholders with different interests

Sell fuelMake Profit

Buy fuelGet Discount

Who looks

after my interests

?

Matching InterestsMatching Interests

Conflicting InterestsConflicting Interests


Stakeholders

Who are stakeholders?


Stakeholders

Who are stakeholders? Government Directly affected (groups) Indirectly affected (groups)

those who are affected, but also

those who can affect (the outcome)


Stakeholders

active and passive stakeholders:those who affect (determine) a decision or action,

and those affected by this decision or action

primary stakeholders are the heart of interest

or the intended beneficiaries of a project and

secondary stakeholders

key stakeholders: significant influence


Stakeholder Analysis

an instrument for understanding a system, and changes in it, by identifying stakeholders and assessing their relationships and their respective interests in that system.

an instrument for understanding a system, and changes in it, by identifying stakeholders and assessing their relationships and their respective interests in that system.


Stakeholder Analysis

Analysis means?

combining information


Stakeholder Attributes

The 4 most relevant attributes are:

interests influence importance interaction


Interests

Positions and interests

No, the tree is on my

land!

The tree is on my land!

I want the shade of the tree

I want the fruit of the tree


Influence = Power

the power to control decisions.

the ability to persuade others into a course of action.

facilitate implementation of a project or affect it negatively.

power, mandate, legitimacy


Importance

: is the priority given to satisfying a stakeholders’ needs and interests

is most obvious when stakeholder interests in a project converge closely with the project's objectives. (purpose).

is therefore distinct from influence. (Stakeholders, who have weak capacity to participate and limited power to influence key decisions can have high importance).


Influence & Importance

High

Importance

Low

Low Influence High

A B

D C

interests are to be protected

ensure coalition of

support

source of significant

risk

unlikely to be subject of project


Grouping stakeholders


Stakeholder interaction

Policy & Governance

Cost & BenefitImpact

Ecological Ecological interestinterest Economic interestEconomic interest

Institutional focusInstitutional focus

Social Social cultural cultural

behaviorbehavior

Ethics

PlanningPlanning Institutions

Values


Conflicts

Reading

“A framework for Conflict Resolution”

Video

“Water wars”


Conflict sources

Interdependence Scarcity Communication barriers

Structural

&

Physical

Different interests Factual disagreement Relational aspects

Personal


Level of confrontation

The level at which the conflict occurs (international, national, local).

The relative position or status of the stakeholders (conflicts at the same level or between levels).

The relative power of the stakeholders (who has responsibilities and who represents significant economical interests)


Level of confrontation

Conflict scale

Intra-household Intra-community Inter-community Local-national

National International

Macro & micro


The Dynamic Environment

Stakeholder analysis participation relationship

Problem&

Conflict

Information&

Knowledge

Decisio

n to

ols &

tech

niq

ues

Co

mm

un

ication

, E

du

cation

& P

articipatio

n

Neg

otiatio

n, M

ediatio

n,

Arb

itration

Decision&

Consensus &

Resolution


Conflicts

Conflict indicators

Land Cover Land suitability Present land use Land/labour market Urban fringe Water demand Erosion features


Conflicts in space

For stakeholders and conflicts

Area of influenceArea of influence

DirectionDirection

DensityDensity

LocationLocation


The space in the conflict

Area of influenceArea of influence DirectionDirection DensityDensityLocationLocation



PointsPoints LinesLines PolygonsPolygons





Planning for conflict

Examples:

Web based GIS as a tool for participation in LUP

What If? PSS for scenario development


Looking into the future


What if?TM

Is a policy-oriented, scenario-based planning support system

Does not attempt to predict future exactly

Instead it shows What would happen if Development policies are enacted Growth assumptions prove to be true


Factors Considered by What if?

Supply of land Quantity and location of suitable land

Demand for land Residential, industrial, commercial,

preservation, and local land uses Public policies

Infrastructure availability Master plans, zoning controls, and

open space preservation programs


What if? Used to:

Determine if these projections were reasonable

Assess different policies for protecting farmland while accommodating growth


Examples of required Data

Existing land uses Suitability scenarios

Slopes, floodplains, agricultural soils, wetlands, and river buffers

Growth scenarios Population and employment projections Assumed future densities and in-fill rates

Allocation scenarios Public policies


Suitability Scenarios Considered

Preservation Scenario What if County X preserves prime farmland,

wetlands, and hazardous areas?

Development Scenario What if County X does nothing to restrict the

supply of land?


Growth Scenarios Considered

High Growth What if the 23% decennial rate for 1990-2000

continued until 2045?

Low Growth What if the 18% decennial rate for 1980-2000

continued until 2045?


Public Policies Considered

Controls What if County X enacted a policy of requiring

infrastructure and staged infrastructure expansion

No Controls What if the County does nothing to control

the location and timing of development?


Growth Control Policy


Existing Land Uses


Development - No Controls


Development - With Controls


Questions?


Planning for conflict

Examples:

Creating policy boundaries in a environmentally sensitive and economically important area.

Visualising Conflicts

Lake Naivasha, Kenya



Land Use 1967

Shrubland

Papyrus swamp

Woodland

Artificial surf aces

Agriculture

Open water

Grassland


Land Use 2000

Shrubland

Papyrus swamp

Woodland

Artificial surf aces

Agriculture

Open water

Grassland


Different Policies lead to

different Boundaries


I nfluenced areasInfluenced areasInfluenced areas

Policy Consequences


Management scenarios Description

1. To do nothing

2. Restrict use

3. Wise use

This scenario reflectsthe current situationand status around the

social, economic, spatialand legal issue in Lake

Naivasha.

This scenario implies astrict ecological

management of the area,considers the proposedboundary as the major

permit limit expansion forpotential activities.

This scenario allowscommercial managementbut only of sustainable

current (2001) land useswithin the proposed

boundary.

proposedscenario limit

currentlimit

.otherland uses

Different scenarios to achieve Policies


Different scenarios for different locations


Conceptual framework

Lake Naivasha Management Plan

Conflict and stakeholder analysis

Visualization of conflicts

Definition of spatial dimensions of conflicts

Representation in a map

Identification and classification of SH’s

Identification of conflicts

Analysis SH’svalues

Conflict typology and sources

Conflict intensity

Conflict mapping

Conflict analysis and visualization


Longonot-Kijabe area water scarcity

Farmers in upper catchment vs.

farmers in lower catchment

Farmers around lake versus fishers

Fisheries Department vs poachers

Domestic drinking water demand

vs. Regional drinking water supply


Questions to be answered

Is possible to represent the conflicts in a map?

If so, which are the variables to be represented?

How they can be represented?




More Questions?

Documents

1 Elective 9 - PPGIS and not Resource Management and Conflict Planning J.J. Verplanke Conflict Management and Resource Planning