1 Demographic and travel patterns The use of data and modelling in transport and land use planning Transport and Population Data Centre

1

Demographic and travel patterns

The use of data and modelling in transport and land use planning

Transport and Population Data Centre

2Transport and Population Data Centre

Demography and geography

Travel behaviour

Transport infrastructure, services and policies

Strategic transport and land use planning


Strategic land use and transport planning

• Objectives (healthy, happy, productive, sustainable etc)

• Managing growth– Where and how to house growth– Employment opportunities– Maximise accessibility to jobs and other

desired/required activities• Infrastructure, services, policies

– Which corridors require capacity?– How best to serve demand for travel

• Infrastructure and services• Demand management• Pattern of land use development



Travel behaviour




Demography and Geography

• Composition of population– Census

• Sources of change– Births, Deaths, Migration

• Location of change


Age and gender, Sydney

50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100+

Age

(yea

rs)

Male Female2001 2031

Source: TPDC (2004) NSW State and Regional Population Projections


Age and gender, coastal NSW

12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100+

Age

(yea

rs)

Male Female

2001 2031Source: TPDC (2004) NSW State and Regional Population Projections


Sources of population change, NSW

-40,000

-20,000

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

1985 1988 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

Year to 30 June

Per

sons

Overseas migration Interstate migration Births

Deaths Natural Increase Net migration

Source: ABS (various years) Demographic Statistics (Cat No 3101.0)


Location of population change, NSW, 2001-2031

Source: TPDC (2004) NSW Statistical Local Area Population Projections


Location of change, Sydney, 2001-2031

Source: TPDC (2004) NSW Statistical Local Area Population Projections


Employment change, Sydney, 2001-2031

Source: TPDC (2004) GMR Travel Zone Employment Projections


Containment

• Approx one quarter of employed Sydney residents live and work in the same LGA

• This percentage has declined over time from 27% 10 years ago to approximately 25% now

Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work


Commercial Centre Employment

Centre 1996 2001 % change

Sydney CBD 192,665 221,396 14.9

N Sydney/Milsons Point 33,056 36,576 10.6

Parramatta 29,542 35,658 20.7

St Leonards/Crs Nest 24,950 26,083 4.5

Pyrmont/Ultimo 17,307 21,594 24.8

Macquarie/North Ryde 18,008 20,361 13.1

Chatswood 17,737 19,317 8.9Source: TDC Journey to Work Data, 1996 and 2001


Casualisation of workforce

• Casual employees are at least 20% of the workforce

• Contrary to popular belief, almost half are men

• The growth in casual employees is three times that of growth in employment generally

Source: Department of Employment and Workplace Relations (2002) Casual Work in NSW



Travel behaviour




Travel behaviour

• Current pattern of behaviour– Journey to work– Household travel survey– Commercial transport study

• Trends in behaviour over time


Current travel: JTW to Centres

SYDNEY

CAMDEN

PENRITH

HORNSBY

RICHMOND

LIVERPOOL

MONA VALE

BLACKTOWN

BANKSTOWN

SUTHERLAND

CAMPBELLTOWN

PARRAMATTA

HURSTVILLE

CHATSWOOD

Main roadsHighwaysFreewaysMain Road

Cityrail Network

Employees500+401 - 500301 - 400151 - 30050 - 150

N

EW

S0 3 6 9 12 Kilometers

(c) Map Produced by the Transport and Population Data CentreDepartment of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources

Data Ource 2001 Journey to W ork.

Origin of work trips to selected centres



Current travel: JTW to Centres

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Rest of Sydney SD

Campbelltown

Sutherland

Macquarie Park/Uni

Penrith

Fairfield

Bankstown

Liverpool

Blacktown

Hurstville

Hornsby

Burwood

St Leonards/Crows Nest

Parramatta CBD

Chatswood

Nth Sydney/Milsons Pt

Sydney CBD

Mode Share

Train Bus Car driver Car passenger Other



PT mode share to work 2001

Mode Share 0 - 10 %11 - 20 %21 - 30 %31 - 40 %41 - 50 %Greater than 50 %

Public transport mode sharefor travel to work

2001N

0 5 10 15 Kilometers



CBD Employment and Rail Patronage

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

19

78

/79

19

79

/80

19

80

/81

19

81

/82

19

82

/83

19

83

/84

19

84

/85

19

85

/86

19

86

/87

19

87

/88

19

88

/89

19

89

/90

19

90

/91

19

91

/92

19

92

/93

19

93

/94

19

94

/95

19

95

/96

19

96

/97

19

97

/98

19

98

/99

19

99

/00

20

00

/01

20

01

/02

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

CBD Employment

CityRail Patronage

Sydney Buses Patronage

Sydney SD Population

Millions (patronage)‘000s (employment)

Sources: State Transit Authority (Sydney Buses Patronage)State Rail Authority (CityRail Patronage)Australian Bureau of Statistics (Estimated Resident Population)CB Richard Ellis (CBD Employment)

Millions(population)


JTW within 500m of rail, Sydney

Mode Live <500m Work <500m All JTW from station from station trips

Train 34% 43% 16%

Bus 6% 15% 6%

Car 41% 32% 69%

Other 19% 10% 9%

Total 100% 100% 100%



JTW over 2km from rail


Mode Live >2km Work >2km All from station from station trips

Train 9% 3% 16%

Bus 7% 4% 6%

Car 74% 83% 69%

Other 9% 10% 9%

Total 100% 100% 100%


HTS: Reasons for travel(Sydney, Weekday)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Social/recreation

Servepassenger

Shopping Commuting Work relatedbusiness

Personalbusiness

Education/childcare

Other

1999 2000 2001 2002

trips to return home recoded to previous priority purpose

Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys


HTS: Duration of different types of trips

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Commute Other workrelated travel

Social/recreation

Education/childcare

Personalbusiness

Shopping Servepassenger

All trips

Min

ute

s1999 2000 2001 2002



Methods of travel(Sydney, Weekday)

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

Vehicle driver Vehiclepassenger

Train Bus Walk only Other

1999 2000 2001 2002

Unlinked trip legs other includes tax i, bicycle and ferry



Methods of travel for different purposes (Sydney, Weekday)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Private Vehicle Public Transport Other

1999

2000

2001

2002

1999

2000

2001

2002

1999

2000

2001

2002

1999

2000

2001

2002

1999

2000

2001

2002

1999

2000

2001

2002

1999

2000

2001

2002

Serve passenger

Work-related

business

Commuting Personal business

Social/Recreation

Shopping Education/Child care



Growth in travel, 1999-2002: who and how?(Sydney, Weekday)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

OtherPublic Transport

Private Vehicle

'99 '00 '01 '02

'99 '00 '01 '02'99 '00 '01 '02

'99 '00 '01 '02'99 '00 '01 '02

'99 '00 '01 '02

'99 '00 '01 '02

'99 '00 '01 '02

<11 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 Over 70

Age group

Trip

s, a

vera

ge w

eekd

ay, S

ydne

y



Growth in car use per capita: Why?

• Licence holding

• Fringe growth

• Job dispersal

• Women in workforce

• Economic prosperity

• Car ownership


Growth in car use, 1991-2001(Sydney, Weekday)

1.4%

2.3%2.2%2.1%

1.8%

1.3%

1.8%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Persons Households Car driver Carpassenger

Licenceholding

Vehicles VKT


Annu

al %

gro

wth


Growth in car use, 1991-2001(Sydney, Weekday)

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

15-24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+

Age (years)

Population Car trips VKT

Annu

al %

gro

wth



59%

41%

66%

56%64%

36%34%

44%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Male Female Male FemaleTrips VKT

1991 2001

Change in car use by gender, 1991-2001



Growth in car use, 1991-2001

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

Population Car trips VKT

Full timeworker

Part time/Casual

Student Retired/Agedpensioner

Keepinghouse

Unemployed

Annu

al %

gro

wth



Road freight movements

SCREENLINES NETWORK PRIOR MATRIX

TRIP TABLE

MATRIX ESTIMATIONPROCEDURE

TRIP ENDS


TRIPS - Citilabs

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TRIPS - Citilabs

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2002 Heavy Vehicle Movements (GMR)TPDC Commercial Transport Study (CTS)

Sydney



Travel behaviour





• Road network– Lanes– Speed/flow relationships– Tolls– Parking costs

• Public transport network– Routes– Stops– Timetables– Fares


Road and public transport network


Accessibility



Travel behaviour



StrategicTravelModel


Travel behaviour model: Strategic Travel Model (STM)

• Household type model

• Car ownership model

• Licence holding model

• Trip generation

• Joint destination and mode choice

• Route assignment


STM Outputs


STM Outputs• Traffic volumes• Road speeds• Volume/capacity ratios• Slow roads, slow travel• Rail patronage by line• Rail patronage by section• Station ins/outs• Trains per section• (similarly for bus)• Origins/destinations of

demand using any selected link (highway or transit) or combinations

• Trip length distributions• VKT, PKT• Mode splits• Demand - commuter & non-

commuter • Spider diagrams• Time/space diagrams for

transit• Car travel time contours

from any chosen spot• Shortest paths• Interchange volumes• and more ...


STM Outputs• Strategic planning

– Scenario modelling – test relationships/sensitivities– Long Term Strategic Plan for Rail

• Project evaluation– Parramatta Rail Link, Transitways– Western Sydney Orbital, Lane Cove Tunnel, M2-F3– Private sector proposals

• Policy development– Integrated fares– Air quality management


DEC airshed modelling of urban development in Sydney

240 260 280 300 320 340 3606200

6220

6240

6260

6280

6300

Lidcombe Bringelly

Richmond

St. Marys

Sydney CBD

Vineyard

W oolooware

Randwick

Campbelltown

Liverpool Earlwood

W estmead

Rozelle

Bargo

Oakdale

Blacktown Lindfield

Camden

Kurrajong Heights

M aximum 1-hour ozone c onc entration20th Dec ember 2000 base c ase

Maximum 109.9 ppb

6 0

8 0

1 0 0

1 2 0

O z o n e p p b

N

240 260 280 300 320 340 3606200

6220

6240

6260

6280

6300

Lidcombe Bringelly

Richmond

St. Marys

Sydney CBD

Vineyard

W oolooware

Randwick

Campbelltown

Liverpool Earlwood

W estmead

Rozelle

Bargo

Oakdale

Blacktown Lindfield

Camden

Kurrajong Heights

M aximum 1-hour ozone c onc entration20th Dec ember 2000 "2026 (70/30)"

Maximum 95.5 ppb

6 0

8 0

1 0 0

1 2 0

O z o n e p p b

N

(a) (b)

240 260 280 300 320 340 3606200

6220

6240

6260

6280

6300

Lidcombe Bringelly

Richmond

St. Marys

Sydney CBD

Vineyard

W oolooware

Randwick

Campbelltown

Liverpool Earlwood

W estmead

Rozelle

Bargo

Oakdale

Blacktown Lindfield

Camden

Kurrajong Heights


Maximum 96.8 ppb

6 0

8 0

1 0 0

1 2 0

O z o n e p p b

N

240 260 280 300 320 340 3606200

6220

6240

6260

6280

6300

Lidcombe Bringelly

Richmond

St. Marys

Sydney CBD

Vineyard

W oolooware

Randwick

Campbelltown

Liverpool Earlwood

W estmead

Rozelle

Bargo

Oakdale

Blacktown Lindfield

Camden

Kurrajong Heights


Maximum 95.4 ppb

6 0

8 0

1 0 0

1 2 0

O z o n e p p b

N

(c) (d)

Max 1-hr Ozone2026 scenarios 20th December 2000


STM - uses

Public Transport Mode Share 2021 (am peak)

Assumptions tested

No PTinvestment

Trend PTinvestment

North West Sector 18.1% 24.3%South West Sector 19.2% 24.7%

Sydney Average 22.2% 25.5%


STM - uses

• Recent scenario modelling suggests:– Significant inertia in existing system– Price signals rather than infrastructure

more powerful tool– People are very adaptable



Travel behaviour



StrategicTravelModel


More information:• www.planning.nsw.gov.au/tpdc

Australasian Transport Research Forum 2005• 28-30 September 2005• Sofitel Wentworth Hotel, Sydney

ATRF05ATRF05

Documents

1 Demographic and travel patterns The use of data and modelling in transport and land use planning Transport and Population Data Centre