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Deep uncertainty in energy policy: Deep uncertainty in energy policy: introduction to basic conceptsintroduction to basic concepts
• Resilience and Risk management
• Energy System Structure• Adaptive scenario backcasting
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Addressing riskAddressing risk2 basic ways to respond to risk:2 basic ways to respond to risk:• GambleGamble – bet nothing negative happens – bet nothing negative happens• AmeliorateAmeliorate – become resilient to risk – become resilient to risk
2 basic kinds of resilience:2 basic kinds of resilience:• Suppressive Suppressive - prevent/ remove risk effects- prevent/ remove risk effects {-: cost, {-: cost,
brittleness, disabling}brittleness, disabling}• AdaptiveAdaptive – adapt to preserve functionality {-: cost, – adapt to preserve functionality {-: cost,
+: suppleness, enabling}+: suppleness, enabling}– Both include, and require, appropriate Both include, and require, appropriate
organisationorganisation
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4 key propositions4 key propositions
• In a dynamic world primary sustainability = preservation of adaptive resilience
• So sustainable energy infrastructure supports synergistic ecological + societal adaptive resilience
• Resilience requires integrated adaptability across plant, sector, network and ecological levels
• Technological development has shown an important trend toward universal adaptability
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Scenario backcasting:Scenario backcasting:
CCS Coal
Large Thermal
FC
Natural Gas
GE
TransportStationary Energy
CA
Electricity
EM
Hydrogen
Fossil Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
TransportStationaryEnergy
Electricity
ICE
Today Tomorrow
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FUTUREPRESENT
FUTUREPRESENT
Forecasting/Forecasting/backcasting: backcasting: schematic methodschematic method
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Greater power of backcasting Greater power of backcasting optionsoptions
Backcasting is a more powerful tool than forecasting for Backcasting is a more powerful tool than forecasting for capturing policy options because capturing policy options because its off-trend, longer term, its off-trend, longer term, time-reversed perspectivetime-reversed perspective::
• allows consideration of intermediary actions that break trends, allows consideration of intermediary actions that break trends, • opens to decision many variables that are effectively fixed in opens to decision many variables that are effectively fixed in
the short term, and the short term, and • allows for self-reinforcement along pathways (e.g. allows for self-reinforcement along pathways (e.g.
technological learning) and for inter-pathway synergies (e.g. technological learning) and for inter-pathway synergies (e.g. solar boosting of coal-fired generation).solar boosting of coal-fired generation).
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Human Energy System Human Energy System FlowFlow
Resources
Primary Energy
Tertiary Energy
Human Energy System Flow
Extraction
SupplyDemand
Conversion from Fuel
Conversion to Fuel
Fuel interconversion,Transmission and Storage
Secondary Energy
Consumption of Energy Services
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Energy Media DiamondEnergy Media Diamond
50-80%
50-90%
80-95%
70-80%
99-100%
25-40%
99-100%
99-100%
80-90%
50-60%
Energy Media Transformation Pathway Efficiencies
50-90%
80-90%
70-90%
Electrical
Chemical
Thermal
Mechanical
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Options in transport designOptions in transport designHydrogenHydrocarbonsCompressed Air(Liquid, Gas)
(Electro-mechanicalDrive)(Gas expansion Motor)
Kinetic Energy
Electricity
TransportFigure 3: Transport Technology Design Structure
On Board Storage
Hydrocarbons (Solid)
Continuous Delivery
(Tank)Single Storage
On Board Storage
(Tank)Split Storage
(Battery)Single Storage
(Tender)Split Storage
Fixed Grid orOn-boardcapture (PVcell)
(Aerofoil)On-board Capture
Electricity Air MotionHydrogenHydrocarbonsCompressed Air(Liquid, Gas)
[No Storage] [No Storage]
Continuous Delivery
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Options for transport Options for transport fuelsfuels
Biomass
[Bio-engineeredPhotosynthesis]
Thermal
Hydrogen
Mechanical (Wind, Tide, Hydro)
[Photolysis] Photovoltaic
Secondary
[Emerging]
Primary
TransformationTertiary
Legend
Electro-mechanicalDrive
Gas expansion Motor
Kinetic Energy
Electricity
[Compressed Air]
Transport
Non-Carbon Thermal([Geothermal], Nuclear,[Solar Thermal])
Figure 4: Transport Services EnergyPathways
Hydrocarbons / Non- carbon Hydrogen Compound
[Electrolysis]
[Fuel Cell]
[BatteryStorage]
[Micro-Turbine]
[BiofuelSynthesis] Fossil Hydrocarbons
[Carbon Sequestration]
Mobility/Access
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Options for stationary Options for stationary energyenergy
Biomass
[Bio-engineeredPhotosynthesis]
Fossil Hydrocarbons[Carbon Sequestration]
Thermal
Hydrocarbons
Hydrogen
Mechanical [Non-Carbon Thermal]
Solar Photolysis Photovoltaic
Heat
Electro-mechanicalGas expansion
Motive Power
Electricity
Mechanical
Chemical EnergyEssential Electricity(Lighting, InformationProcessing, etc.)
Stationary Energy Services Pathways
[Electrolysis]
[Fuel Cell]
[BatteryStorage]
[BiofuelSynthesis]
Secondary
[Emerging]
Primary
Transformation
Tertiary
Legend
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Scenario ExerciseScenario Exercise
Land & Water
BM fuel BiomassFossil Oil
Hydrogen
Natural Gas Coal
Wind
GE Transport Stationary Energy
Electricity
ICE
Thermal
Local Thermal
Current Energy Pathway Current Energy Pathway StructureStructure
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Scenario exerciseScenario exercise
BM sugar
Battery Storage
Biosequestration
Land & WaterAgricultural Photosynthesis
CCS
BM oilBM wood
Industrial Photosynthesis
Fossil Oil
Diesel Alcohol Hydrogen
Natural Gas Coal
Photolysis
Wind & PV etc.
Solar Thermal
Electro-Magnetic
Gas Expansion
TransportStationaryEnergy
Compressed Air
Electricity
Fuel CellICE
Local Thermal
Legend: Fossil (Carbon Neutral with CSS), Carbon Neutral, Carbon Free.
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Scenario exerciseScenario exercise
Desalination
Land & Water
CCSBiomass
Fossil Oil
Hydrogen
Natural Gas Coal
Photolysis
Wind & PV
Thermal
EM GE Transport
StationaryEnergy
CA
Electricity
FCICE BEV
Local Thermal
Solar Thermal
Geothermal
Nuclear
Biosequestration
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Energy: Decision Energy: Decision StructureStructure
Energy Services
Resources
Stationary Fuel
Supply
Adaptability v Efficiency, Impost/ Subsidy
Demand Management
Role ofElectricity
TransportTechnology
TransportFuel
Mobility
Land and Water,Centralisation vDecentralisation
Energy Provision: Principle Decision Structure
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Adaptive strategy constructionAdaptive strategy construction
Adaptive strategies are constructed by • developing a portfolio of actual technologies (+ supporting
financial, skill, regulatory etc. arrangements), that • keeps open the real options of pursuing each scenario
within the suite of scenarios, that • represent the widest feasible class of the most satisfactory
scenarios for achieving all of a selected range of physically plausible and societally desirable end-states.
Given finite resources, the parameters ‘class width’, ‘scenario satisfaction level’ and ‘end-state range’ will need to be judiciously traded-off against one another.