1 Climate Change and the Pacific Northwest What Impacts Can We Expect and How Should We Prepare?...
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1 Climate Change and the Pacific Northwest What Impacts Can We Expect and How Should We Prepare? PNWS AWWA Annual Conference May 2, 2008 Vancouver, WA Roger Hamilton, Climate Leadership Initiative University of Oregon [email protected]541-686-4839
1 Climate Change and the Pacific Northwest What Impacts Can We Expect and How Should We Prepare? PNWS AWWA Annual Conference May 2, 2008 Vancouver, WA
1 Climate Change and the Pacific Northwest What Impacts Can We
Expect and How Should We Prepare? PNWS AWWA Annual Conference May
2, 2008 Vancouver, WA Roger Hamilton, Climate Leadership Initiative
University of Oregon [email protected] 541-686-4839
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3 Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time 100
0.074 0.018 50 0.128 0.026 Warmest 12 years:
1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period
Rate Years /decade
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5 CSIRO MIROC HAD B1 Change in Mean Monthly Temperature
(Degrees C) 2070-2099 vs 1961-1990 A2
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6 B1 CSIRO HAD MIROC Percent Change in Precipitation 2070-2099
vs 1961-1990
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11 Observed Temperatures Last Century Compared to Natural and
Man- Made Simulations Vertical scale is.5 degrees Fahrenheit
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12 Agriculture emerges 4.5 o C 1.5 o C Is this an
Anthropomorphic Sweet Spot? The Last 20,000 Years seems to have
been Ideal for the Development of Human Societies. Is this a
Historic Sweet Spot that Enabled Humans to Flourish?
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13 Volatility of Temperatures in Central Greenland over Last
100,000 Years Data s hows remarkable stability in last 10,000 years
during human settlement. ( From 1995 Ice Cores)
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14 Reduction CO 2 missions sooner, moves these delayed
consequences downward and reduces the time required to stabilize
the responses. There is a fundamental asymmetry between the time
scales that the climate system reacts to increases in greenhouse
gases and the time scales to recover from such increases. Carbon
Dioxide Stabilizes in several Hundred years Temperatures Stabilizes
in about 500 Hundred years Sea Level Rise will Stabilizes in over
1000 years Today 100 Years 1000 Years
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15 CO 2 and SO 2 in the 21 st Century Source: IPCC TAR 2001 A2
A1B B1 Future Scenarios are Based on Socio-Economic Storylines
Stable at 550 ppm Stable at 750 ppm Approaching 3,000 to 4,000
ppm
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16 What Do We See Happening Now? Arctic sea ice has shrunk by
over 20 percent since 1978 (Most recent: 7.8 % per decade since
1953 according to National Snow and Ice Center in Boulder) Larsen B
ice shelf in Antarctica lost over 3000 square miles in 2002
Glaciers are receding in North America, South America, Africa,
Europe, and Asia Methane, most powerful GHG, rapidly releasing from
thawing tundra at 5X expected rate Sea levels are rising and
expected to increase up to 23 inches without melting of polar ice
sheets Increasingly strong storms and hurricanes
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17 PNW Temperature and Precipitation Trends Over Past Century
Average warming since the beginning of the 20th century Average 10%
precipitation increase since the beginning of the 20 th century 30
to 40% increase in eastern Washington April 1 Cascades snow pack
declined 35% from 1950- 1995 Timing of peak snow pack moved to
earlier in year March stream flows have increased and June stream
flows reduced Most affected at low and mid elevations
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26 Substantial Warming Seems Inevitable 4 o F or so temperature
increase is likely to cause significant harm. + 4 o F increase may
generate catastrophic impacts: All communities and persons will be
affected. Some scientists expect global temperatures to rise by 10
o F or more by centurys end. Temperature increases may not be
gradual: rapid change may dominate. New international report (over
2000 scientists) predicts temperature will increase 3.1 to 7.2
degrees F this century If 6 degrees F, sea level could rise 80 feet
with melting of ice sheets
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27 PNW Projections for Next 10 to 50 years Temperature: average
warming 2.7 degrees F by 2030 and 5.4 degrees F by 2050 Results:
Higher elevation treeline Longer growing seasons Earlier animal and
plant breeding Longer and more intense allergy season Changes in
vegetative zones
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28 PNW Impacts (cont.) Precipitation: May increase on average
Historical increase by 10% since 1900 but 30% in some locations
Most precipitation will continue to occur in winter and in
mountains Low summer precipitation and earlier peak streamflow:
decreased summer water availability Increased flood damage Shifts
in hydro production from summer to winter Decreased water quality
Increased salinity and pollutant concentration Increased storm
intensity, beach erosion, and stream scouring
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29 Rain, Mixed Rain/Snow, and Snow Dominant Areas in the PNW
(HUC4 resolution) Green = Rain Dominant Red = Mixed Rain/Snow Blue=
Snow Dominant
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30 Hydro Power Production A ten percent decrease in flows can
reduce hydro production by 36% Conservative Prediction: 20% hydro
power reduction in Columbia Basin by 2060. Increased pressure to
reduce power to help stressed fish. Increased summer temperatures
will cause increased summer power demand for air conditioning
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31 Hydropower Climate drivers Increased levels of CO 2.
Temperatures up 2F by 2020s and 3F by 2040s. Earlier snowmelt. No
significant change in amount of precipitation. Sea level rise by
2100 of 4 to 35 inches.
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32 Winter and Spring: increased generation Summer: decreased
generation Annual: total production will depend on annual
precipitation Plus: impacts on electricity demand in winter in
summer (+3.6F, +6%) (+4.1F, +5%) (+5.2F, -4%) NWPCC (2005)
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34 Municipal water supply Climate drivers Increased levels of
CO 2. Temperatures up 2F by 2020s and 3F by 2040s. Earlier
snowmelt. No significant change in amount of precipitation. Sea
level rise by 2100 of 4 to 35 inches. Economic Impacts Varies
greatly by municipality depending on water source, water quantity
relative to population, adaptive management, etc. Both supply and
demand solutions have costs; e.g. Lake Tapps system in Pierce
County estimated at $450 million. One study found water
conservation costs to offset the decline in firm yield of Seattles
water supply could exceed $8 million per year by the 2020s and $16
million per year by 2040s.
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35 TYPES OF PREPARATION MEASURES CATEGORY Status Quo Prevent
the Loss Spread or Share the Loss Change the Activity Change the
Location Prepare EXAMPLE Rebuild, or abandon affected structures
Build for big winds, floods, drought Purchase flood insurance Dont
build in low lying coastal areas, rebuild wetlands Relocate
buildings out of flood zones Protect and restore wetlands and
forests in streams From Adapting to Climate Change, Canadian
Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network
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36 For Energy and Water Systems: Reliability of transmission
systems threatened given higher summer peaking with increased air
conditioning loads and higher ambient temperatures for electrical
wires: need for distributed generation Energy efficiency consistent
with increased greenhouse gas reduction regulation Buffering of
transmission and distribution lines anticipating increased wildfire
frequency and intensity Protection of electricity sub-stations
against flood damage in flood- prone areas
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37 Adjusting electricity production and transmission long-range
planning to anticipate reduced hydroelectric water storage with
decreased snow pack and earlier spring run off Considering changes
in wind plant production profiles due to changing climate regimes
Considering expanding municipal water storage facilities in drought
prone areas with anticipated reduced precipitation and summer
runoff Buffering of municipal water and waste water treatment
facilities against severe storm events
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38 For Water Treatment Facilities Water Quality May Be Impacted
by the following: Increased mobility of chemical compounds
Increased temperature Increased eutrophication Reduced dissolved
oxygen Increased hazardous substances Flush of sediment or
pollutants from flash flood events Leaching of waste disposals or
water treatment facilities from flash flood events
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39 Flash Flood Events May Cause: Flush of sediments or
pollutants Leaching of waste disposals or water treatment
facilities Spread of pathogens
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40 Interdecadal Climate Regime Shifts 1976 - 771988 - 89 El Nio
19831998 Drought and Fire in the West (Simulated Fire, no Fire
Suppression) 1940s
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41 MIROC3_MEDRES A2B1 HADCM3 CSIRO_MK3 percent Percent Change
Biomass consumed by Fire 2051-2100 vs. 1951-2000.
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44 UO CLIMATE LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE Greenhouse Gas
Quantification and Impact Assessments Low-Carbon Sustainable
Economic Development Climate Policy and Program Development Private
Access Local Government Web-based Discussion Board Pacific
Northwest Local Government Climate Change Working Group Climate
Change Literacy and Information E-mail alerts on climate change
issues Neighborhood Climate Change Program Website:
http://climlead.uoregon.eduhttp://climlead.uoregon.edu E-mail:
[email protected]