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1. Assess role of facilitating events as “structural” factors.
2. Sum up overall importance of structural factors.
3. Become familiar with actors in transition and typical relations among them.
4. Understand model of cycle of mobilization.
1. Economic crisis2. Losing a major military
conflict
Performance as source of legitimacy for recent authoritarian regimes.
Legitimacy to particular government rather than procedures of regime.
Democratic regimes: legitimacy of regime rules and procedures as well as current government.
Economic Crisis› E.g. oil crises 1973-4 and 1979
Oil-importing countries suffered. Argentina, Greece.
Loss of Major Military Conflict› Argentina (Falklands-Malvinas)› Greece (Cyprus)› Portugal (colonial wars)› USSR (Afghanistan)
aka “Transitology”
??
Actions much less determined by structural factors during transition.
Sense of freedom, loss of fear.
Democratization may work better if liberalization precedes democratization (Huntington).› E.g. South Africa.
Government
Opposition
Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy
Reformers Standpatters
Radical Extremists Moderates
Government
Opposition
Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy
Soft-liners Hard-liners
Radicals Moderates
Hard-liners (standpatters) in government:› Hard-line apartheid supporters in white
minority government. Soft-liners (reformers) in government:
› E.g. F.W. de Klerk – if no reform, regime unsustainable.
Moderates in opposition:› Mandela in ANC – limit demands to political
procedural democracy, not economic. Radicals in opposition:
› Demand socioeconomic equality or African-run regime.
› Willing to use violence.
Government
Opposition
Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy
Soft-liners Hard-liners
Radicals Moderates
Government
Opposition
Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy
Soft-liners Hard-liners
Radicals Moderates
Government
Opposition
Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy
Soft-liners Hard-liners
Radicals Moderates
Government
Opposition
Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy
Soft-liners Hard-liners
Radicals Moderates
If hardliners very strong, democratization can’t occur.
If soft-liners and opposition moderates both strong, democratization likely.
If radicals very strong, either radical outcome or hard-liner backlash occurs.
Initial Liberalization
“Resurrection of Civil Society”- protests, disorder, demands
Demobilization of Civil Society
Soft-liners believe they can keep control of transition
Hard-liners’ fears of disorder seem confirmed; their allies increase – fear of coup
As fear of coup increases, opposition becomes more vocal
People become tired and run out of resources; Soft-liners and moderates have become majority; negotiating over details rather than regime type