1 Are you ready for the Influenza Pandemic?. 2 Alain Normand Manager, Emergency Measures and Corporate Security, City of Brampton, Ontario President,

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Are you ready for Are you ready for the Influenza the Influenza Pandemic?Pandemic?

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Alain NormandManager,

Emergency Measures and Corporate Security,

City of Brampton, Ontario

President,

Ontario Association of Emergency Managers

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Avian FluAvian Flu

The lion, the bear and the chicken

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Emergency Management Emergency Management 1011015 basic parameters for intervention Prevention: reducing probability Mitigation: reducing impact Preparedness: readiness to respond

or cope during emergencies Response: direct intervention Recovery: return to normal or near

normal

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Facing the PandemicFacing the Pandemic

Prevention: Almost impossible, very unlikely Quarantine uncertain Closing borders unrealistic

Not “if” but “when” Three main Pandemic Influenza crisis in last

century: 1918 Spanish Flu, 1957 Asian Flu, 1968 Hong-Kong Flu.We are overdue for the next one.

Travel time and globalization

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AbsenteeismAbsenteeism

Factor 1 - Absenteeism foreseen for up to 50% of staff. Multiple contingency plans may be

required to address the various possible scenarios

10% absenteeism 30% absenteeism 50% absenteeism

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Length of illnessLength of illness

Factor 2 – Most individuals affected will be ill for six to twelve days, many will develop complication requiring prolonged care, some will die Note: not everyone may fall sick at

once (domino effect)

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DurationDuration

Factor 3 - Duration of first wave estimated from 6 weeks to 4 months. Always some percentage of staff

absent throughout this period

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Second WaveSecond Wave

Factor 4 - Second wave expected six to ten months after end of first wave, could have worse impact than first wave.

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ImpactImpact

Everyone will be affected Prevention is limited

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3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

First Wave Second Wave

Vaccine distribution

GAP

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ImpactImpact

People who won’t come to work: Deceased (.03 to .1%) Hospitalised (.1 to .3%) Clinically ill (30 to 50%) Staying home with sick relatives (?) People afraid to go out of home (?) People affected by other diseases (?)

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Economic ImpactEconomic Impact

Up to 50% of workforce absent for a period of time

All sectors will be affected by the workforce shortage

Some sectors will also be affected by reduced consumerism, shortage of supplies, travel restrictions and border closures (I.e. Tourism & entertainment)

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Mitigation: Vaccine: delayed availability, gap Antiviral: limited efficiency, limited

access Social distancing policies Public Education

Overall: limited mitigation possibilities

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Response: Health system already taxed Public expectation high Resources low Health workers also affected by

influenza

Limited capacity for response

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RealityReality

Failure of the medical profession to address the real issues

Limited evaluation of the impact mostly restricted to health aspect

Very little Emergency Planning, no Continuity Planning, no Economic Recovery Planning

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Pandemic – “Stay home”

Municipal Pandemic Municipal Pandemic PlanningPlanning

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What will government really do: 2002 Snowstorm – “Stay home” 2003 Blackout – “Stay home” 2004 Snowstorm – “Stay home” Pandemic –

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Municipal Pandemic Municipal Pandemic PlanningPlanningWhat will happen: School closures for 6 weeks Transit closures Border restrictions in Canada Travel restrictions in other countries Close all public assembly locations Restrict meetings Encourage stay at home strategies

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Municipal Pandemic Municipal Pandemic PlanningPlanningPandemics are not all about health So far government Pandemic Plans

are one-sided Real emergency is a workforce and

economic emergency Illness related absenteeism = low Fear related absenteeism = high There lies the real problem

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RealityReality

In short:

WhenWhen the next influenza the next influenza pandemic arrives, we will pandemic arrives, we will

all be on our own.all be on our own.

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Municipal Pandemic Municipal Pandemic PlanningPlanningWhat can be done? Be aware Think critically, question everything Everything this session has taught

you Plan for the long-term not just Avian

Flu Resist complacency

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Municipal Pandemic Municipal Pandemic PlanningPlanningTwo strategies: Prevention &

Preparednessand two levels: Personal & Corporate Personal prevention: healthy living,

hand washing Personal preparedness: stockpiling,

reducing contacts Corporate prevention & preparedness:

listen to the next presentation for this part

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Recovery: Health recovery – rapid once vaccine available Psycho-social recovery – could have lingering

impact, grief counselling, impact on education Economic recovery – long-term impact

perceived (post-pandemic recession?)

Long-term process

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PreparednessPreparedness

3 steps1. Assessment2. Planning3. Implementation

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Preparedness step 1: Preparedness step 1: AssessmentAssessmentTaking stock of the situation:

Government Impact Identified Public Expectation Identified Available Resources In progress

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Preparedness step 2: Preparedness step 2: PlanningPlanningFour categories of plans

1. Health Plans2. Emergency Response Plans3. Economic Resiliency Plans4. Continuity of Government

Plans

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Preparedness step 2: Preparedness step 2: PlanningPlanning1. Health Plans

A. Vaccine & antiviral distribution Who: enumeration process, priorities How: establishing distribution system

B. Policies School & daycare closures Limiting social & business gatherings Cancelling transit

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C. Communications Handwashing Social distancing, one-metre rule Environmental cleaning “If in doubt, stay home” rule Use of Personal Protective

Equipment

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E. Surge Capacity Retired workers Auxiliary workers upgraded Alternative health facilities

F. Mass Fatality Plan Funeral homes Arenas

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Preparedness step 2: Preparedness step 2: PlanningPlanning2. Emergency Response Plans

Inter-municipal Planning Committee Monitoring & assessment of impact Essential services (other emergencies) Crisis Intervention (EOC) Communications Social support, volunteers Mutual assistance Rationing

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Preparedness step 2: Preparedness step 2: PlanningPlanning3. Economic Resiliency Plans

Economic Emergency Planning Committee

Economic Development Office Emergency Measures Office Board of Trade Other Business Associations

Tools Business Emergency Network Communication channels Support tools, economic recovery

plans

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Preparedness step 2: Preparedness step 2: PlanningPlanning4. Continuity of Municipal Services

Plans

Continuity Planning Committee Essential services, 9-1-1 Call Centre, City Hall Reception Traffic Signals, Road Operations &

Maint. Animal Services Clerk’s office, Building Dept. Transit ??

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Preparedness step 2: Preparedness step 2: PlanningPlanning4. Continuity of Municipal Services

Plans

Continuity Planning Committee Support services:

» IT» HR» Payroll» Security» Fleet maintenance» Finance

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Preparedness step 3: Preparedness step 3: ImplementationImplementation

Communications: internal, external Equipping, stockpiling Training Testing??

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StrategiesStrategies

Prevention: a. Hand-washing techniques

communications, antibacterial soap distribution

b. Protective equipment i.e. gloves, masksc. Social distancing measures: 1 metre rule,

limit handshakesd. Health messages: “if in doubt stay home”e. Link to Municipal Health Dept.

communications

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Monitoring and decision making:a. Reporting system for

absenteeismb. Central coordinationc. Policy change approval processd. Internal communications

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Contingency planninga. Virtual operations i. Work at home tools ii. Online meetings, conference calls iii. Increased communications toolsb. Reduced interaction i. Shift work ii. Remote locations

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StrategiesStrategiesContingency planning (cont)c. Reduced services i. Online services

ii. Postpone programs and/or close facilities:1. Impact on clients, stakeholders2. Lost wages, HR policies3. Communications: internal & external

d. Cross-training i. According to BIA (critical services)

ii. Key staff identification iii. Skills inventory v. Detailed procedures, 3 steps (write, edit,

test)Union involvement

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Questions?Questions?

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Thank you.

[email protected]

www.brampton.ca/emergency_measures/index.tml

Alsowww.oaem.ca

[email protected]

Documents

1 Are you ready for the Influenza Pandemic?. 2 Alain Normand Manager, Emergency Measures and Corporate Security, City of Brampton, Ontario President,