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1
Analysis of the use of Multipliers as a substitute for Set-Asides
December 6, 2007Presentation at FPSC Staff Workshop on RPS
Bob McGee, Marketing Services Manager
Gulf Power Company
2
Overview
Caveats Terminology Assumptions Analysis Conclusions
3
Caveats
Proposing only the use of multipliers as a substitute for set-asides, carve-outs and tiers
Analysis requires the use of certain assumptions to make calculations
Those assumptions are for illustrative purposes only
4
Terminology
Set-asides Carve-outs Tiers
Market-driven Multipliers
Mandates within a mandate
5
Assumptions
RPS exists in Florida RPS compliers are required to purchase
renewables at costs above avoided cost Some form of renewable, such as PV, is
favored or is to be encouraged more than other renewables
6
Assumptions
RPS structure 20% of Retail Sales
Retail Sales projections from FRCC Exponential phase-in of 20% RPS mandate in 13yrs
The Multiplier in effect at the “commercial operation date” of a PV generator is applicable for the life of that generator
7
Assumptions
Cost curve for Photovoltaics (PV) from FSEC presentation to FPSC 1/19/07
Cost of non-PV alternatives 5¢/kWh growing to 8¢/kWh
Average PV generating capacity in Florida 4kWh/day/installed kW of PV from FSEC and verified
8
Analysis
On Spreadsheet
9
Effective FloridaProjected Simulated cost of PV Simulated Florida Simulated
cost of PV Multiplier after applying RPS Retail Sales RPSYear cents/kWh for PV Multiplier percent GWH GWH
1 25.6 5.12 5.0 1.8% 241,986 4,390
2 23.2 4.42 5.3 2.2% 249,138 5,521
3 20.0 3.64 5.5 2.7% 255,710 6,922
4 17.6 3.06 5.8 3.3% 263,158 8,700
5 15.2 2.53 6.0 4.0% 270,581 10,926
6 13.6 2.18 6.3 4.9% 277,174 13,670
7 12.0 1.85 6.5 6.0% 284,503 17,138
8 10.4 1.54 6.8 7.4% 292,015 21,486
9 9.6 1.37 7.0 9.0% 299,960 26,957
10 9.6 1.32 7.3 11.0% 308,119 33,819
11 8.8 1.17 7.5 13.4% 316,500 42,430
12 8.0 1.03 7.8 16.4% 325,109 53,237
13 8.0 1.00 8.0 20.0% 333,951 66,790
10
Effective FloridaProjected Simulated cost of PV Simulated Florida Simulated
cost of PV Multiplier after applying RPS Retail Sales RPSYear cents/kWh for PV Multiplier percent GWH GWH
1 25.6 5.12 5.0 1.8% 241,986 4,390
2 23.2 4.42 5.3 2.2% 249,138 5,521
3 20.0 3.64 5.5 2.7% 255,710 6,922
4 17.6 3.06 5.8 3.3% 263,158 8,700
5 15.2 2.53 6.0 4.0% 270,581 10,926
6 13.6 2.18 6.3 4.9% 277,174 13,670
7 12.0 1.85 6.5 6.0% 284,503 17,138
8 10.4 1.54 6.8 7.4% 292,015 21,486
9 9.6 1.37 7.0 9.0% 299,960 26,957
10 9.6 1.32 7.3 11.0% 308,119 33,819
11 8.8 1.17 7.5 13.4% 316,500 42,430
12 8.0 1.03 7.8 16.4% 325,109 53,237
13 8.0 1.00 8.0 20.0% 333,951 66,790
11
Effective FloridaProjected Simulated cost of PV Simulated Florida Simulated
cost of PV Multiplier after applying RPS Retail Sales RPSYear cents/kWh for PV Multiplier percent GWH GWH
1 25.6 5.12 5.0 1.8% 241,986 4,390
2 23.2 4.42 5.3 2.2% 249,138 5,521
3 20.0 3.64 5.5 2.7% 255,710 6,922
4 17.6 3.06 5.8 3.3% 263,158 8,700
5 15.2 2.53 6.0 4.0% 270,581 10,926
6 13.6 2.18 6.3 4.9% 277,174 13,670
7 12.0 1.85 6.5 6.0% 284,503 17,138
8 10.4 1.54 6.8 7.4% 292,015 21,486
9 9.6 1.37 7.0 9.0% 299,960 26,957
10 9.6 1.32 7.3 11.0% 308,119 33,819
11 8.8 1.17 7.5 13.4% 316,500 42,430
12 8.0 1.03 7.8 16.4% 325,109 53,237
13 8.0 1.00 8.0 20.0% 333,951 66,790
A B CA/C
12
Effective FloridaProjected Simulated cost of PV Simulated Florida Simulated
cost of PV Multiplier after applying RPS Retail Sales RPSYear cents/kWh for PV Multiplier percent GWH GWH
1 25.6 5.12 5.0 1.8% 241,986 4,390
2 23.2 4.42 5.3 2.2% 249,138 5,521
3 20.0 3.64 5.5 2.7% 255,710 6,922
4 17.6 3.06 5.8 3.3% 263,158 8,700
5 15.2 2.53 6.0 4.0% 270,581 10,926
6 13.6 2.18 6.3 4.9% 277,174 13,670
7 12.0 1.85 6.5 6.0% 284,503 17,138
8 10.4 1.54 6.8 7.4% 292,015 21,486
9 9.6 1.37 7.0 9.0% 299,960 26,957
10 9.6 1.32 7.3 11.0% 308,119 33,819
11 8.8 1.17 7.5 13.4% 316,500 42,430
12 8.0 1.03 7.8 16.4% 325,109 53,237
13 8.0 1.00 8.0 20.0% 333,951 66,790
13
Effective FloridaProjected Simulated cost of PV Simulated Florida Simulated
cost of PV Multiplier after applying RPS Retail Sales RPSYear cents/kWh for PV Multiplier percent GWH GWH
1 25.6 5.12 5.0 1.8% 241,986 4,390
2 23.2 4.42 5.3 2.2% 249,138 5,521
3 20.0 3.64 5.5 2.7% 255,710 6,922
4 17.6 3.06 5.8 3.3% 263,158 8,700
5 15.2 2.53 6.0 4.0% 270,581 10,926
6 13.6 2.18 6.3 4.9% 277,174 13,670
7 12.0 1.85 6.5 6.0% 284,503 17,138
8 10.4 1.54 6.8 7.4% 292,015 21,486
9 9.6 1.37 7.0 9.0% 299,960 26,957
10 9.6 1.32 7.3 11.0% 308,119 33,819
11 8.8 1.17 7.5 13.4% 316,500 42,430
12 8.0 1.03 7.8 16.4% 325,109 53,237
13 8.0 1.00 8.0 20.0% 333,951 66,790
14
Effective FloridaProjected Simulated cost of PV Simulated Florida Simulated
cost of PV Multiplier after applying RPS Retail Sales RPSYear cents/kWh for PV Multiplier percent GWH GWH
1 25.6 5.12 5.0 1.8% 241,986 4,390
2 23.2 4.42 5.3 2.2% 249,138 5,521
3 20.0 3.64 5.5 2.7% 255,710 6,922
4 17.6 3.06 5.8 3.3% 263,158 8,700
5 15.2 2.53 6.0 4.0% 270,581 10,926
6 13.6 2.18 6.3 4.9% 277,174 13,670
7 12.0 1.85 6.5 6.0% 284,503 17,138
8 10.4 1.54 6.8 7.4% 292,015 21,486
9 9.6 1.37 7.0 9.0% 299,960 26,957
10 9.6 1.32 7.3 11.0% 308,119 33,819
11 8.8 1.17 7.5 13.4% 316,500 42,430
12 8.0 1.03 7.8 16.4% 325,109 53,237
13 8.0 1.00 8.0 20.0% 333,951 66,790
ED FD x E
15
Effective FloridaProjected Simulated cost of PV Simulated Florida Simulated
cost of PV Multiplier after applying RPS Retail Sales RPSYear cents/kWh for PV Multiplier percent GWH GWH
1 25.6 5.12 5.0 1.8% 241,986 4,390
2 23.2 4.42 5.3 2.2% 249,138 5,521
3 20.0 3.64 5.5 2.7% 255,710 6,922
4 17.6 3.06 5.8 3.3% 263,158 8,700
5 15.2 2.53 6.0 4.0% 270,581 10,926
6 13.6 2.18 6.3 4.9% 277,174 13,670
7 12.0 1.85 6.5 6.0% 284,503 17,138
8 10.4 1.54 6.8 7.4% 292,015 21,486
9 9.6 1.37 7.0 9.0% 299,960 26,957
10 9.6 1.32 7.3 11.0% 308,119 33,819
11 8.8 1.17 7.5 13.4% 316,500 42,430
12 8.0 1.03 7.8 16.4% 325,109 53,237
13 8.0 1.00 8.0 20.0% 333,951 66,790
ED FD x E
A B CA/C
16
FloridaSimulated Florida SimulatedMultiplier Retail Sales RPS actual actual PV capacity
Year for PV GWH GWH RPS GWh percentage required (MW)
1 5.12 241,986 4,390 857 0.4% 587
2 4.42 249,138 5,521 1,113 0.4% 763
3 3.64 255,710 6,922 1,499 0.6% 1,026
4 3.06 263,158 8,700 2,080 0.8% 1,424
5 2.53 270,581 10,926 2,958 1.1% 2,026
6 2.18 277,174 13,670 4,219 1.5% 2,890
7 1.85 284,503 17,138 6,098 2.1% 4,177
8 1.54 292,015 21,486 8,920 3.1% 6,110
9 1.37 299,960 26,957 12,909 4.3% 8,842
10 1.32 308,119 33,819 18,091 5.9% 12,391
11 1.17 316,500 42,430 25,430 8.0% 17,418
12 1.03 325,109 53,237 35,899 11.0% 24,588
13 1.00 333,951 66,790 49,453 14.8% 33,872
Scenario 1all RPS requirements met
with PV only
B E F
17
FloridaSimulated Florida SimulatedMultiplier Retail Sales RPS actual actual PV capacity
Year for PV GWH GWH RPS GWh percentage required (MW)
1 5.12 241,986 4,390 857 0.4% 587
2 4.42 249,138 5,521 1,113 0.4% 763
3 3.64 255,710 6,922 1,499 0.6% 1,026
4 3.06 263,158 8,700 2,080 0.8% 1,424
5 2.53 270,581 10,926 2,958 1.1% 2,026
6 2.18 277,174 13,670 4,219 1.5% 2,890
7 1.85 284,503 17,138 6,098 2.1% 4,177
8 1.54 292,015 21,486 8,920 3.1% 6,110
9 1.37 299,960 26,957 12,909 4.3% 8,842
10 1.32 308,119 33,819 18,091 5.9% 12,391
11 1.17 316,500 42,430 25,430 8.0% 17,418
12 1.03 325,109 53,237 35,899 11.0% 24,588
13 1.00 333,951 66,790 49,453 14.8% 33,872
Scenario 1all RPS requirements met
with PV only
B E F
18
FloridaSimulated Florida SimulatedMultiplier Retail Sales RPS actual actual PV capacity
Year for PV GWH GWH RPS GWh percentage required (MW)
1 5.12 241,986 4,390 857 0.4% 587
2 4.42 249,138 5,521 1,113 0.4% 763
3 3.64 255,710 6,922 1,499 0.6% 1,026
4 3.06 263,158 8,700 2,080 0.8% 1,424
5 2.53 270,581 10,926 2,958 1.1% 2,026
6 2.18 277,174 13,670 4,219 1.5% 2,890
7 1.85 284,503 17,138 6,098 2.1% 4,177
8 1.54 292,015 21,486 8,920 3.1% 6,110
9 1.37 299,960 26,957 12,909 4.3% 8,842
10 1.32 308,119 33,819 18,091 5.9% 12,391
11 1.17 316,500 42,430 25,430 8.0% 17,418
12 1.03 325,109 53,237 35,899 11.0% 24,588
13 1.00 333,951 66,790 49,453 14.8% 33,872
Scenario 1all RPS requirements met
with PV only
B E F▲ F/B+G -1
G
19
FloridaSimulated Florida SimulatedMultiplier Retail Sales RPS actual actual PV capacity
Year for PV GWH GWH RPS GWh percentage required (MW)
1 5.12 241,986 4,390 857 0.4% 587
2 4.42 249,138 5,521 1,113 0.4% 763
3 3.64 255,710 6,922 1,499 0.6% 1,026
4 3.06 263,158 8,700 2,080 0.8% 1,424
5 2.53 270,581 10,926 2,958 1.1% 2,026
6 2.18 277,174 13,670 4,219 1.5% 2,890
7 1.85 284,503 17,138 6,098 2.1% 4,177
8 1.54 292,015 21,486 8,920 3.1% 6,110
9 1.37 299,960 26,957 12,909 4.3% 8,842
10 1.32 308,119 33,819 18,091 5.9% 12,391
11 1.17 316,500 42,430 25,430 8.0% 17,418
12 1.03 325,109 53,237 35,899 11.0% 24,588
13 1.00 333,951 66,790 49,453 14.8% 33,872
Scenario 1all RPS requirements met
with PV only
B E F G G/E▲ F/B+G -1
20
FloridaSimulated Florida SimulatedMultiplier Retail Sales RPS actual actual PV capacity
Year for PV GWH GWH RPS GWh percentage required (MW)
1 5.12 241,986 4,390 857 0.4% 587
2 4.42 249,138 5,521 1,113 0.4% 763
3 3.64 255,710 6,922 1,499 0.6% 1,026
4 3.06 263,158 8,700 2,080 0.8% 1,424
5 2.53 270,581 10,926 2,958 1.1% 2,026
6 2.18 277,174 13,670 4,219 1.5% 2,890
7 1.85 284,503 17,138 6,098 2.1% 4,177
8 1.54 292,015 21,486 8,920 3.1% 6,110
9 1.37 299,960 26,957 12,909 4.3% 8,842
10 1.32 308,119 33,819 18,091 5.9% 12,391
11 1.17 316,500 42,430 25,430 8.0% 17,418
12 1.03 325,109 53,237 35,899 11.0% 24,588
13 1.00 333,951 66,790 49,453 14.8% 33,872
Scenario 1all RPS requirements met
with PV only
B E F G G/E G/1.46
▲ F/B+G -1
21
B EJ/BK
K+nonPVK/1.46H J
E x HL L/E
FloridaSimulated Simulated
Simulated Florida RPS PV RPS PVMultiplier Retail Sales with PV cap of with PV cap actual actual actual PV capacity
Year for PV GWH 10% GWH PV GWh RPS GWh percentage required (MW)
1 5.12 241,986 0.18% 439 86 4,036 1.7% 59
2 4.42 249,138 0.22% 552 111 5,080 2.0% 76
3 3.64 255,710 0.27% 692 150 6,380 2.5% 103
4 3.06 263,158 0.33% 870 208 8,038 3.1% 142
5 2.53 270,581 0.40% 1,093 296 10,129 3.7% 203
6 2.18 277,174 0.49% 1,367 422 12,725 4.6% 289
7 1.85 284,503 0.60% 1,714 610 16,034 5.6% 418
8 1.54 292,015 0.74% 2,149 892 20,230 6.9% 611
9 1.37 299,960 0.90% 2,696 1,291 25,553 8.5% 884
10 1.32 308,119 1.10% 3,382 1,809 32,246 10.5% 1,239
11 1.17 316,500 1.34% 4,243 2,543 40,730 12.9% 1,742
12 1.03 325,109 1.64% 5,324 3,590 51,503 15.8% 2,459
13 1.00 333,951 2.00% 6,679 4,945 65,057 19.5% 3,387
Scenario 2all RPS requirements met
but PV is limited by PV cap
22
B EJ/BK
K+nonPVK/1.46H J
E x HL L/E
D x 0.1Florida
Simulated SimulatedSimulated Florida RPS PV RPS PVMultiplier Retail Sales with PV cap of with PV cap actual actual actual PV capacity
Year for PV GWH 10% GWH PV GWh RPS GWh percentage required (MW)
1 5.12 241,986 0.18% 439 86 4,036 1.7% 59
2 4.42 249,138 0.22% 552 111 5,080 2.0% 76
3 3.64 255,710 0.27% 692 150 6,380 2.5% 103
4 3.06 263,158 0.33% 870 208 8,038 3.1% 142
5 2.53 270,581 0.40% 1,093 296 10,129 3.7% 203
6 2.18 277,174 0.49% 1,367 422 12,725 4.6% 289
7 1.85 284,503 0.60% 1,714 610 16,034 5.6% 418
8 1.54 292,015 0.74% 2,149 892 20,230 6.9% 611
9 1.37 299,960 0.90% 2,696 1,291 25,553 8.5% 884
10 1.32 308,119 1.10% 3,382 1,809 32,246 10.5% 1,239
11 1.17 316,500 1.34% 4,243 2,543 40,730 12.9% 1,742
12 1.03 325,109 1.64% 5,324 3,590 51,503 15.8% 2,459
13 1.00 333,951 2.00% 6,679 4,945 65,057 19.5% 3,387
Scenario 2all RPS requirements met
but PV is limited by PV cap
23
B EJ/BK
K+nonPVK/1.46H J
D x 0.1L L/E
E x HFlorida
Simulated SimulatedSimulated Florida RPS PV RPS PVMultiplier Retail Sales with PV cap of with PV cap actual actual actual PV capacity
Year for PV GWH 10% GWH PV GWh RPS GWh percentage required (MW)
1 5.12 241,986 0.18% 439 86 4,036 1.7% 59
2 4.42 249,138 0.22% 552 111 5,080 2.0% 76
3 3.64 255,710 0.27% 692 150 6,380 2.5% 103
4 3.06 263,158 0.33% 870 208 8,038 3.1% 142
5 2.53 270,581 0.40% 1,093 296 10,129 3.7% 203
6 2.18 277,174 0.49% 1,367 422 12,725 4.6% 289
7 1.85 284,503 0.60% 1,714 610 16,034 5.6% 418
8 1.54 292,015 0.74% 2,149 892 20,230 6.9% 611
9 1.37 299,960 0.90% 2,696 1,291 25,553 8.5% 884
10 1.32 308,119 1.10% 3,382 1,809 32,246 10.5% 1,239
11 1.17 316,500 1.34% 4,243 2,543 40,730 12.9% 1,742
12 1.03 325,109 1.64% 5,324 3,590 51,503 15.8% 2,459
13 1.00 333,951 2.00% 6,679 4,945 65,057 19.5% 3,387
Scenario 2all RPS requirements met
but PV is limited by PV cap
24
B E H JE x HD x 0.1Florida
Simulated SimulatedSimulated Florida RPS PV RPS PVMultiplier Retail Sales with PV cap of with PV cap actual actual actual PV capacity
Year for PV GWH 10% GWH PV GWh RPS GWh percentage required (MW)
1 5.12 241,986 0.18% 439 86 4,036 1.7% 59
2 4.42 249,138 0.22% 552 111 5,080 2.0% 76
3 3.64 255,710 0.27% 692 150 6,380 2.5% 103
4 3.06 263,158 0.33% 870 208 8,038 3.1% 142
5 2.53 270,581 0.40% 1,093 296 10,129 3.7% 203
6 2.18 277,174 0.49% 1,367 422 12,725 4.6% 289
7 1.85 284,503 0.60% 1,714 610 16,034 5.6% 418
8 1.54 292,015 0.74% 2,149 892 20,230 6.9% 611
9 1.37 299,960 0.90% 2,696 1,291 25,553 8.5% 884
10 1.32 308,119 1.10% 3,382 1,809 32,246 10.5% 1,239
11 1.17 316,500 1.34% 4,243 2,543 40,730 12.9% 1,742
12 1.03 325,109 1.64% 5,324 3,590 51,503 15.8% 2,459
13 1.00 333,951 2.00% 6,679 4,945 65,057 19.5% 3,387
Scenario 2all RPS requirements met
but PV is limited by PV cap
25
B E KH JE x HD x 0.1 ▲ J/B+K -1
FloridaSimulated Simulated
Simulated Florida RPS PV RPS PVMultiplier Retail Sales with PV cap of with PV cap actual actual actual PV capacity
Year for PV GWH 10% GWH PV GWh RPS GWh percentage required (MW)
1 5.12 241,986 0.18% 439 86 4,036 1.7% 59
2 4.42 249,138 0.22% 552 111 5,080 2.0% 76
3 3.64 255,710 0.27% 692 150 6,380 2.5% 103
4 3.06 263,158 0.33% 870 208 8,038 3.1% 142
5 2.53 270,581 0.40% 1,093 296 10,129 3.7% 203
6 2.18 277,174 0.49% 1,367 422 12,725 4.6% 289
7 1.85 284,503 0.60% 1,714 610 16,034 5.6% 418
8 1.54 292,015 0.74% 2,149 892 20,230 6.9% 611
9 1.37 299,960 0.90% 2,696 1,291 25,553 8.5% 884
10 1.32 308,119 1.10% 3,382 1,809 32,246 10.5% 1,239
11 1.17 316,500 1.34% 4,243 2,543 40,730 12.9% 1,742
12 1.03 325,109 1.64% 5,324 3,590 51,503 15.8% 2,459
13 1.00 333,951 2.00% 6,679 4,945 65,057 19.5% 3,387
Scenario 2all RPS requirements met
but PV is limited by PV cap
26
B E KK+ non-PV
H JE x H
LD x 0.1 ▲ J/B+K -1
FloridaSimulated Simulated
Simulated Florida RPS PV RPS PVMultiplier Retail Sales with PV cap of with PV cap actual actual actual PV capacity
Year for PV GWH 10% GWH PV GWh RPS GWh percentage required (MW)
1 5.12 241,986 0.18% 439 86 4,036 1.7% 59
2 4.42 249,138 0.22% 552 111 5,080 2.0% 76
3 3.64 255,710 0.27% 692 150 6,380 2.5% 103
4 3.06 263,158 0.33% 870 208 8,038 3.1% 142
5 2.53 270,581 0.40% 1,093 296 10,129 3.7% 203
6 2.18 277,174 0.49% 1,367 422 12,725 4.6% 289
7 1.85 284,503 0.60% 1,714 610 16,034 5.6% 418
8 1.54 292,015 0.74% 2,149 892 20,230 6.9% 611
9 1.37 299,960 0.90% 2,696 1,291 25,553 8.5% 884
10 1.32 308,119 1.10% 3,382 1,809 32,246 10.5% 1,239
11 1.17 316,500 1.34% 4,243 2,543 40,730 12.9% 1,742
12 1.03 325,109 1.64% 5,324 3,590 51,503 15.8% 2,459
13 1.00 333,951 2.00% 6,679 4,945 65,057 19.5% 3,387
Scenario 2all RPS requirements met
but PV is limited by PV cap
27
B E KH JE x H
L L/ED x 0.1 K+ non-PV▲ J/B+K -1
FloridaSimulated Simulated
Simulated Florida RPS PV RPS PVMultiplier Retail Sales with PV cap of with PV cap actual actual actual PV capacity
Year for PV GWH 10% GWH PV GWh RPS GWh percentage required (MW)
1 5.12 241,986 0.18% 439 86 4,036 1.7% 59
2 4.42 249,138 0.22% 552 111 5,080 2.0% 76
3 3.64 255,710 0.27% 692 150 6,380 2.5% 103
4 3.06 263,158 0.33% 870 208 8,038 3.1% 142
5 2.53 270,581 0.40% 1,093 296 10,129 3.7% 203
6 2.18 277,174 0.49% 1,367 422 12,725 4.6% 289
7 1.85 284,503 0.60% 1,714 610 16,034 5.6% 418
8 1.54 292,015 0.74% 2,149 892 20,230 6.9% 611
9 1.37 299,960 0.90% 2,696 1,291 25,553 8.5% 884
10 1.32 308,119 1.10% 3,382 1,809 32,246 10.5% 1,239
11 1.17 316,500 1.34% 4,243 2,543 40,730 12.9% 1,742
12 1.03 325,109 1.64% 5,324 3,590 51,503 15.8% 2,459
13 1.00 333,951 2.00% 6,679 4,945 65,057 19.5% 3,387
Scenario 2all RPS requirements met
but PV is limited by PV cap
28
B E K K/1.46H JE x H
L L/ED x 0.1 K+ non-PV▲ J/B+K -1
FloridaSimulated Simulated
Simulated Florida RPS PV RPS PVMultiplier Retail Sales with PV cap of with PV cap actual actual actual PV capacity
Year for PV GWH 10% GWH PV GWh RPS GWh percentage required (MW)
1 5.12 241,986 0.18% 439 86 4,036 1.7% 59
2 4.42 249,138 0.22% 552 111 5,080 2.0% 76
3 3.64 255,710 0.27% 692 150 6,380 2.5% 103
4 3.06 263,158 0.33% 870 208 8,038 3.1% 142
5 2.53 270,581 0.40% 1,093 296 10,129 3.7% 203
6 2.18 277,174 0.49% 1,367 422 12,725 4.6% 289
7 1.85 284,503 0.60% 1,714 610 16,034 5.6% 418
8 1.54 292,015 0.74% 2,149 892 20,230 6.9% 611
9 1.37 299,960 0.90% 2,696 1,291 25,553 8.5% 884
10 1.32 308,119 1.10% 3,382 1,809 32,246 10.5% 1,239
11 1.17 316,500 1.34% 4,243 2,543 40,730 12.9% 1,742
12 1.03 325,109 1.64% 5,324 3,590 51,503 15.8% 2,459
13 1.00 333,951 2.00% 6,679 4,945 65,057 19.5% 3,387
Scenario 2all RPS requirements met
but PV is limited by PV cap
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Year 1 Year 1
Multiplier Effective cost Scenario 1 Scenario 23.20 8.0 16.2% 19.6%3.66 7.0 15.7% 19.6%4.27 6.0 15.3% 19.5%5.12 5.0 14.8% 19.5%6.40 4.0 14.4% 19.4%
Year 13 Actual percentSummary Table
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Conclusions
Multipliers and Set-asides both place emphasis on a particular type of renewable generation
Multipliers make no guarantee that kWh of a particular type will be generated
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Conclusions Multiplier method offers highest incentive in
early years. Set-aside method sets highest mandate in last years.
Multiplier offers an incentive to choose PV without removing market pressure to keep PV costs low
Multiplier phases out logically and automatically in accordance with cost projections
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Conclusions
Multipliers can make RPS complier indifferent to higher actual cost of PV
Multipliers can bring cost of RPS compliance using PV down to the cost of RPS compliance using other renewable sources
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Conclusions
But Multipliers must be set high enough to be effective
Experience in other states indicates that multipliers of 2x or 3x are inadequate Failure of Multipliers in other states is not due to the
mechanism itself, but due to the inadequate level at which the mechanism is set
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Conclusions
Even if all RPS requirements are met with PV using multipliers, a substantial portion of the original RPS target will be met
Within the context of the overall mandate of an RPS, Multipliers allow market forces to work for the benefit of customers
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Questions?