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1
Air Quality and Its Effects:
The California ExperienceJohn A. Romley, Ph.D.
Research Assistant ProfessorPrice School of Public Policy
May 1, 2014
3
Los Angeles has been the lead character
One coping strategy for a 1955 event
City Hall on a good day in 2013
City Hall during LA’s first “smog attack” in 1943
Sources: LA Times; LA Weekly
4
Effects of air quality from the perspective of the dismal science
Quasi-experimental
evidence
Avoidance behavior
Beyond short-term health effects
• Like pollution levels, the health status of individuals varies by location, and is hard to measure– Health effects of pollution are overstated, if sicker people
live in areas with more pollution– Neidell (2004) analyzed changes in asthma hospitalizations in
LA zip codes as pollution varied randomly month by month…– …and found that reductions in carbon monoxide from 1992
through 1998 reduced admissions among children by 5-14%
5
Effects of air quality from the perspective of the dismal science
Quasi-experimental
evidence
Avoidance behavior
Beyond short-term health effects
• Individuals may take actions to minimize effects– Measured health effects reflect actual exposure– Unavoidable exposure results from unpredictable arrivals at
the LA port, and from runway idling at LAX due to system delays (Neidell & Moretti, 2006; Schlenker & Walker, 2011)
– Such exposure leads to much more severe health effects… …which suggests that avoidance behavior can be quite costly
6
Effects of air quality from the perspective of the dismal science
Quasi-experimental
evidence
Avoidance behavior
Beyond short-term health effects
• Childhood asthma is associated with obesity in young adults (Fletcher et al., 2010)
• 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 outdoors leads to 6% decrease in productivity of indoor fruit packers in northern California (Chang et al., 2014)
7
1940s 1980s 1990s1950s
California has led the United States in clearing the air
1943:1st smog
attack
1971:National air standards
1940s 1960s 1970s1950s
Federal
State and local
2000:Fresno
Asthmatic Children’s
Environment Study1947:
LA countypollution
district
1998:Diesel emissionsfoundtoxic
1969:Air standardsset
1966:Auto emission
standards1967:CA Air Resources Board1952:
Science of smog
known
1960:Motor Vehicle Pollution Control Board
1975:2 way catalytic converter
1990:Clean
fuel, cars
1984:Vehicle
inspections
1988:Clean
Air Act
1970:Clean Air Act Amendments
1977:Review of standards required
1990:Clean Air Act Amendments
8
The progress is striking
Ozone
Sources: SCAQMD; CARB
CO reductions through 1990s saved the lives of 1,000 infants (Currie & Neidell, 2004)
PM
9
Despite this progress, air pollution remains
a significant problem for the state
Ozone non-attainment areas
13
My work indicates that disparities in exposure interact with other factors
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Black Hispanic Asian /Pacif icIslander
Disparities in Excess-Pollution-Related Hospital Events: All Hospital Events
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Black Hispanic Asian /Pacif icIslander
Dif
fere
nce
(C
om
par
ed t
o W
hit
es)
in A
nn
ual
E
ven
ts p
er 1
00,0
00 P
op
ula
tio
n
Total AttributableRisk
Contribution ofDisparities inPollution Exposure
Contribution ofDisparities in Non-Pollution EventRates
A
Source: Hackbarth, Romley and Goldman (2011)
14
• Diesel fuel
• Goods movement
• Ports of Long Beach / LA
• Low emissions vehicles
• Greenhouse gas emissions
• Solar power subsidies
• Diesel fuel• Goods movement• Ports of Long Beach / LA
• Low emissions vehicles
• Greenhouse gas emissions
• Solar power subsidies
In response, California continues to advance the story on U.S. environmental policy
15
Heavy transport is a driver of air quality in the state
• SCAQMD (2007): In LA basin, trucks, rail and ships generate– 10% of PM– 24% of NOx– 73% of SOx
• Perez et al. (2009): Proximity to road traffic causes 9% of child asthma cases in Long Beach and 6% in Riverside– Ship emissions
account for 21% of bronchitis cases
Source: CARB
16
• CARB adopted low-sulfur diesel standard in 2003– Many large diesel vehicles have been mandated to
install filters, upgrade engines
• State developed a Goods Movement Action Plan over 2005 - 2007– One key goal is to reduce diesel PM emissions by
85% by 2020– $1 billion in funding from Proposition 1B– Benefit-cost ratio put at anywhere from 3:1 to 8:1
• Ports of Long Beach / LA created clean air plan in 2006– Diesel PM decreased 75% from 2005 – 2011– Port modernization is doubling cargo capacity,
with a controversial new railyard
Ongoing developments in heavy transport
17
Looking back, and ahead
• California has made substantial progress in improving air quality
• Evidence of health effects at pollution levels below current standards continues to accumulate
• Good physical and social science are needed to identify policy options & understand their costs and benefits…
• …and good policy decisions are needed to advance the public interest