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Advantages of Carbon Neutrality

Sept 15th, 2009

Presented by Bert Loosmore

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What is carbon neutrality?

Being carbon neutral means having no aggregate GHG emissions

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Reduction of atmospheric CO2 concentrations

• Atmospheric CO2 concentrations:– Pre-industrial: ~ 275 ppm– Current: ~ 389 ppm(outside range of natural variability of last 400,000 years)

• Motivation behind goal of carbon neutrality:– reduce and stabilize atmospheric CO2 to a level below

where it is currently in order to minimize the impact of climate change

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Isn’t the federal government taking action on this?

• Proposed federal legislation (i.e. Waxman-Markey) – will have a questionable impact – is based on outdated and incomplete scientific

knowledge

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Impact of 2C temp increaseFrom Schmidt et al at www.realclimate.org:

“Even a “moderate” warming of 2°C stands a strong chance of provoking drought and storm responses that could challenge civilized society, leading potentially to the conflict and suffering that go with failed states and mass migrations. Global warming of 2°C would leave the Earth warmer than it has been in millions of years, a disruption of climate conditions that have been stable for longer than the history of human agriculture. Given the drought that already afflicts Australia, the crumbling of the sea ice in the Arctic, and the increasing storm damage after only 0.8°C of warming so far, calling 2°C a danger limit seems to us pretty cavalier.”

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/04/hit-the-brakes-hard/

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≤ 350 ppm as a safe goal

From James Hansen:

“If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. ”

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TargetCO2_20080407.pdf

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The role of personal actions

• Since legislation alone will be inadequate, personal action is necessary

• In fact, J. Holdren (Obama’s science advisor) suggested:

“nothing in the policies actually requires sacrifices”

• Personal emissions account for ~1/3 of total U.S. emissions, so as individuals we have a powerful lever we can use

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20327191.200-interview-america-turns-red-white-and-green.html

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The bathtub analogy

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/28/the-greenhouse-effect-and-the-bathtub-effect/

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration (ppm)

GHG Emissions

Natural Sequestration(forests, soils, oceans)

faucet

tub

drain

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• The level in the tub is rising– Anthropogenic sources are still increasing!

– Drains may be clogging a bit

• Stabilizing emissions is only part of the problem• Stabilizing climate requires

– Sources equal sinks

– Effects of long feedback loops (30+ yrs) to have taken place

Our goal is to reduce the level in the tub!

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Achieving ≤ 350 ppm

• Reducing atmospheric CO2 can be achieved with:– no additional emissions, – letting earth’s natural systems (forests, soils,

oceans, possibly with some improvement) work to reduce the atmospheric concentration

• Hence, reduction to ≤ 350 ppm means turning off the faucet, or being carbon neutral as fast as possible

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My 2009 CO2 footprint

Initial 2010 ideas:• Install higher efficiency

boiler, and/or solar water pre-heat

• Perform house blower test• Lower the thermostat• Switch to increased mpg

vehicles• Reduce air travel• Join a CRAGOffset the rest

Electricity 3.29 12.1%

Natural Gas 10.87 40.0%

My car (16 mpg) 4.81 17.7%

Wife’s car (23 mpg) 3.79 14.0%

Air travel 4.40 16.2%

Total 27.16

Estimated emissions (mton C02):

• Knowing where I am helps inform decisions about where to make improvements

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The role of voluntary carbon offsets

• Allow individuals to mitigate GHG emissions

• Represents the reduction of a set amount of CO2e (e.g. 1 mton)

• Projects include renewable energy, methane collection, reforestation, etc.

• Current prices between $10 - $30/mton• Offsets alone aren’t the solution!

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Reduce, Offset, Iterate

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 … Year n

Per

sona

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2 em

issi

ons

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The IslandVision Commitment:

Supporting Mercer Island residents on their journey toward carbon neutrality