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2012 – The Year in Review
The Fleets - 2012
Type Western Built Eastern Built Total
Turbojets 21,479 1,065 22,544
Turboprops 4,817 1,195 6,012
Business Jets 17,642 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Major Accidents Commercial Jets
1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012
CFITLOCExcursion
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal
20 April Bhoja Airlines B-737 Islamabad, Pakistan
Approach 127
9 May Sukhoi SU-100 Mount Salak,Indonesia Enroute 45
2 June Allied Air B-727 Accra, Ghana Landing 0
3 June Dana Air MD-83 Lagos, Nigeria Approach 153
30 Nov Aero Service IL-76 Brazzaville, Congo Go Around 7
25 Dec Air Bagan F-100 Heho, Myanmar Landing 1
29 Dec Red Wings Airlines TU-204 Moscow, Russia Landing 5
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Commercial Jet Major Accidents 2000 through 2012
20
15
10
5
2001 02 03 04 05
06
07 08
09
10
11
13
19
13
13
16
11
17
19
17
19
14
12
Eastern Built
7
Source: Ascend
Major Accident RateWestern-Built Commercial Jets
1999 – 2012
0.00
0.40
0.80
1.20
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
5 year running average
Major Accident Rate
Acc
iden
t ra
te p
er m
illio
n d
epar
ture
s
Source: Ascend
Major Accidents Commercial Jets
1 January 2013 to 10 April 2013
CFITLOCExcursion
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal
29 January
SCAT Air CRJ-200 Almaty, Kazakhstan
Approach 21
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Major Accidents Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats)
1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012
CFIT
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal30 January
TRACEP AN-28 Namoya, DRC Enroute 3
2 April Utair ATR-72 Tyuman, Russia Takeoff 31
9 April Air Tanzania DHC-8 Kigoma, Tanzania Takeoff 0
28 April Jubba Airways AN-24 Galkayo, Somalia Landing 0
14 May Agni Air DO-228 Jomsom, NepalApproac
h15
6 June Air Class Lineas Aereas
SW Metro III
Montevideo, Uruguay Climb 2
10 June Ukrainska Shkola Pilotov LET - 410 Borodyanka, Ukraine Enroute 5
20 June ITABGulfstream I
Pweto, DRC Landing 0
19 August ALFA Airlines AN-24 Talodi, SudanApproac
h32
22 AugustMombassa Air Safari
LET-410 Ngeredi, Kenya Takeoff 4
12 SeptPetropavlovsk-Kamchatsky Air Enterprise
AN-28 Palana, RussiaApproac
h10
28 Sept Sita Air DO-228 Katmandú, Nepal Climb 19
7 October Azza Transport AN-12 Khartoum, Sudan Enroute 13
19 October
Air Mark Aviation AN-12Shindand, Afghanistan
Landing 0
27 Nov Inter Iles Air EMB-120 Moroni, Comoros Climb 0
17 Dec Amazon Sky AN-26 Tomas, Peru Enroute 4
22 Dec Perimeter Aviation Metro III Sanikiluaq, CanadaApproac
h1
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Commercial Turboprop Major Accidents 2000 through 2012
2001 02
03
04 05
06
07
08
09
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
22
31
33 3
1
39
24
24
29
21
10
20
11
25.9 (12 years)
21.4 (5 years)
23
12
21
20
17
Eastern Built
Major Accidents Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats) 1 January 2013 to 10 April 2013
CFIT
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal23 Januray
Kenn Borek Air DHC-6 Terra Nova Bay, Antarctia Enroute 3
13 February South Airlines AN-24 Donetsk, Ukraine
Approach
5
4 March CAA Fokker 50 Goma, DRCApproac
h7
8 March ACE Air Cargo Beech 1900 Anchorage, Alaska, USA
Approach
2
Major Accidents Business Jets
1 January 2011 to 31 December 2011
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal
6 January Priester Aviation Lear -35 Springfield, IL,
USA Landing 0
4 February Sky Lounge Hawker 900 Sulaymaniyah, Iraq Climb 7
18 February
Escuela de Aviacion Lear 24 Villasana, Mexico Landing 2
28 March Hong Fei General Citation II Missing - China Enroute 3
5 May Jorda LLC HS-125 Loreto Bay, Mexico
Approach 0
25 May Jet Suite Air EMB Phenom Sedona, AZ, USA Landing 0
29 November
Wings over Africa
Gulfstream II Huambo, Angola Takeoff 0
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Major Accidents Business Jets
1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal
2 February Extrapoint, LLC Lear 35 Pueblo, CO, USA Takeoff 0
12 February
Trident Aviation Svcs
Gulfstream IV
Bakavu-Kavumu, DRC Landing 3
1 March Asia Today, Ltd Citation 750 Egelsbach, Germany
Approach 5
15 March Private Citation 501 Franklin-Macon, NC, USA Landing 5
18 June Triple C Devlopment Beech 400 Atlanta,Gegoria,
USA Landing 0
13 July Universal Jet Aviation
Gulfstream IV
Le Castellet, France Landing 3
2 August Airnor Citation 500 Santiago de Compostela, Spain
Approach 2
15 Sept Private Lear 24 Bornholm, Denmark
Approach 0
18 Sept Dewberry Air LLC Beech 400 Macon, GA, USA Landing 0
11 Nov Tropic Air Taxi Aero Citation 525 Sao Paulo, Brazil Landing 0
17 Nov US Customs Citation 550 Greenwood SC, USA Landing 0
9 December
Starwood Management Lear 25 Iturbie, Mexico Enroute 7
21 December US Customs Citation 550 Oklahoma City,
USA Landing 0
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Business Jet Major Accidents 2000 through 2012
20
15
10
5
2001 02 03 04 05
06
07 08
09
10
11
14
8
14
8
15
912
11
7
8
10.5
7
12
13
Business Jet Major Accident Rate 2000 through 2012
(Accidents per 1,000 Aircraft)
1.0
.75
.50
.25
2005 06 07 08 09
10
11 12
4 Year Average: .52
8 Year Average: .67
Major Accidents Business Jets
1 January 2013 to 10 April 2013
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal
20 February The Vein Guys Premier I Thomson, GA,
USA Landing 5
4 March Global Jet Luxembourg Premier I Annemasse,
France Takeoff 2
17 March 7700 Enterprises Premier I South Bend, IA,
USAApproac
h 2
Approach and Landing Major Accidents
Commercial Jets 1 January 2012 through 31 December 2012
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal
20 April Bhoja Airlines B-737 Islamabad, Pakistan
Approach 127
2 June Allied Air B-727 Accra, Ghana Landing 0
3 June Dana Air MD-83 Lagos, Nigeria Approach 153
30 Nov Aero Service IL-76 Brazzaville, Congo Landing 7
25 Dec Air Bagan F-100 Heho, Myanmar Landing 1
29 Dec Red Wings Airlines TU-204 Moscow, Russia Landing 3
Business Jet Major Accidents 2000 through 2012
2000 01
02 03
04 05
06
07
08
5
10
15
20
8
14
8
14
8
15
912
11
7
09
63% of Business Jet Major Accidents were Approach and Landing Accidents
6
ALA Accidents
8
5
9
5
8 7 7
4 5
8
6
10
7
4
11
10.5
6.5
12
13
11
Controlled Flight into Terrain Major Accidents
Commercial Jets1 January 2012 though 31 December 2012
Date OperatorAircra
ft Location PhaseFata
l20 April Bhoja Airlines B-737 Islamabad, Pakistan Approach 127
9 May Sukhoi SU-100 Mount Salak,Indonesia Enroute 45
25 Dec Air Bagan F-100 Heho, Myanmar Landing 1
Sources: Honeywell (Don Bateman), Ascend
Over the last 6 years, 23 of 82 turboprop major accidents has been a CFIT– that’s 28%, or more than 1 of every 4 !
Upset AircraftLoss of Control
Unusual Attitudes
Lack of ControlUpset AircraftStall
Extended EnvelopeAdvanced Maneuvering
Upset Aircraft Accident
An upset accident is an accident in which an aircraft is upset and unintentionally flown into a position from which the crew is unable to recover due to either aircrew, aircraft, environmental, or a combination of these factors.
• Over 25 degrees nose up• Over 10 degrees nose down• Greater than 45 degrees bank• Airspeed inappropriate for conditions
Aircraft Upset Major Accidents Commercial Jets
1 January 2012 through 31 December 2012
Date OperatorAircraf
tLocation Phase
Fatal
None in 2012
Aircraft Upset Major AccidentsCommercial Jets
1999 through 2012
Nu
mb
er
of
Ac
cid
en
ts
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0123456789
10
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
4
6
Upset Aircraft
- No good visual references * IMC * Night * Over Water or lightless/featureless land - Distraction involved
- Initial movement imperceptible (2 degrees/sec)- Initial correction often in wrong direction- One of crew has good or better SA – but wait too long to correct the situation- The pilot who got into the upset situation is the least likely one to be able to recover from it
Stalls1. #1 Factor: Angle of Attack
2. Low Speed warning systems ?
3. For airspeed issues --Pitch and Power 4. Modern aircraft know their AOA
Why doesn’t the crew ?
Runway Excursion Data Update
Added 2007 - 2010
Data Base now covers 16 Years
1995-2010
Runway Safety Accident Data
1995 – 2010
Number Average
Incursions: 11 (.7/year) Confusion: 6 (.3/year) Excursions: 650
40.6/Year
1.0/year
Other Challenges
- Functional Check Flights - Unreliable Airspeed
Functional Check Flights
- Symposium February 2011 - Vancouver- EASA Rulemaking on FCF (NPA published)- FCF Steering Team * Boeing * Airbus * Bombardier * Embraer * Gulfstream
- FCF Compendium
Flight Safety Foundation
Functional Check Flight Compendium
• Introduction• “Be Prepared”
paper • FCF Guidelines
Document
• FCF Symposium Material
- Preparation
- Ground Phase
- Flight Phase (25 Modules: e.g. Auto Pilot, Air Conditioning, APU)
Unreliable Airspeed
Industry Steering Group Formed
The IssueHistorical and recent accidents and incidents have highlighted the increased risk associated with unreliable airspeed (URA) events
Created URA Philosophy and Guidelines
URA Philosophy - The keys to successfully dealing with a URA event are recognition, procedures, and training- The aircrew’s recognition of and initial reaction to a URA event are critical - Manufacturers should attempt to ensure unreliable airspeed events are clearly identifiable to aircrews - The most important function of the aircrew during an in- flight URA event is to maintain control over the aircraft’s flight trajectory and energy situation by selection of attitude and power settings so that the aircrafts flight parameters remain within normal limits
URA Philosophy
- Crews should be aware of the instruments and critical systems that are not affected by a URA event (e.g. attitude displays, engines)
- Procedures and training for URA events should include the effect of a URA event on other aircraft systems, and potential alerts/warnings and indication system inaccuracies that could be expected - Crew coordination and communication are important elements in successfully addressing a URA event
URA Guidelines - URA procedures should provide information on attitude and power settings that enable crews to maintain the aircrafts flight parameters within normal limits during in-flight unreliable airspeed events for all phases of flight- URA procedures should address the availability and use of independent alternate sources of airspeed information (e.g. GPS, inertial, angle of attack, etc.)- URA procedures should include memory items for critical immediate action steps- Training programs addressing URA should exist at beginning (ab initio/MPL), initial, and recurrent levels
- URA training should include both simulator and academic phases
2012 Summary
Aviation Safety 2012 i Record year for commercial jets
i Record year for commercial turboprops
iCFIT continues to be a challenge – and it is making a strong comeback as the leading killer
i There are many challenges out there, and FSF is addressing many of them: * Runway Excursions * Upset Aircraft * Functional Check Flights * Unreliable Airspeed
i Average year for business jets
Some Things to Think About
i Upset Aircraft not a major issue in business aviation i CFIT not a major issue in business aviation
i ALA is a major issue in business aviation - Over 75 % of accidents over last 4 years - Majority of those were runway excursions
Data and Risk Management
