11

22

Challenges in Urban Meteorology: Challenges in Urban Meteorology: A Forum for Users and ProvidersA Forum for Users and Providers

Regional Ecosystem Approaches to Urban Regional Ecosystem Approaches to Urban Environmental Hazard Management Environmental Hazard Management

Challenges in Urban Meteorology: Challenges in Urban Meteorology: A Forum for Users and ProvidersA Forum for Users and Providers

Regional Ecosystem Approaches to Urban Regional Ecosystem Approaches to Urban Environmental Hazard Management Environmental Hazard Management

September 21, 2004

LeRoy Spayd

Chief, Meteorological Services Division

Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services

NOAA’s National Weather Service

September 21, 2004

LeRoy Spayd

Chief, Meteorological Services Division

Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services

NOAA’s National Weather Service

33

44

Communicating Communicating Environmental ServicesEnvironmental Services

Communicating Communicating Environmental ServicesEnvironmental Services

• NOAA NWS Overview

• Teamwork

• NWS Products and Service

• Accurate Communication

• NOAA NWS Overview

• Teamwork

• NWS Products and Service

• Accurate Communication

55

NWS MissionNWS MissionNWS MissionNWS Mission

• Provide climate, water, weather forecasts and warnings to protect life and property and enhance the economy.

• Data and products are used by other government agencies, the private sector, the public, and the global community.

• Provide climate, water, weather forecasts and warnings to protect life and property and enhance the economy.

• Data and products are used by other government agencies, the private sector, the public, and the global community.

66

NOAA VisionNOAA VisionNOAA VisionNOAA Vision

• To move NOAA into the 21st Century scientifically and operationally, in the same interrelated manner as the environment that we observe and forecast, while recognizing the link between our global economy and our planet’s ecology.

• To move NOAA into the 21st Century scientifically and operationally, in the same interrelated manner as the environment that we observe and forecast, while recognizing the link between our global economy and our planet’s ecology.

77

TeamworkTeamworkTeamworkTeamworkPartnerships are critical to ensure

the right message is sent and received!Partnerships are critical to ensure

the right message is sent and received!

88

99

TeamworkTeamworkTeamworkTeamwork

• 751 Communities

• 47 States

• 751 Communities

• 47 States

1010

StormReady Success Story StormReady Success Story Van Wert, Ohio F4 Tornado - 11/10/02Van Wert, Ohio F4 Tornado - 11/10/02

StormReady Success Story StormReady Success Story Van Wert, Ohio F4 Tornado - 11/10/02Van Wert, Ohio F4 Tornado - 11/10/02

Forecast & Detection

Forecast & Detection

WarningWarning

Dissemination

Dissemination

ResponseResponse

1111

TeamworkTeamworkNational Research Council’s ReportNational Research Council’s Report

TeamworkTeamworkNational Research Council’s ReportNational Research Council’s Report

• Today’s partnerships are sound and functioning well

• Recommendations include:– Congressional Mandate –

protect life and property– Public/Private Partnership

Process– Data and Products in

standardized format– New/Discontinue Products– Communicate Uncertainty

• Today’s partnerships are sound and functioning well

• Recommendations include:– Congressional Mandate –

protect life and property– Public/Private Partnership

Process– Data and Products in

standardized format– New/Discontinue Products– Communicate Uncertainty

1212

Seamless Suite of ProductsSeamless Suite of Products

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

6 – 10 Days6 – 10 Days

8 – 14 Days8 – 14 Days

MonthsMonthsSeasonsSeasons YearsYears

Forecast UncertaintyForecast

Uncertainty

Protection ofProtection ofLife & PropertyLife & PropertyProtection ofProtection of

Life & PropertyLife & Property

HydropowerHydropowerHydropowerHydropower RecreationRecreationRecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystemEcosystemEcosystem

State/LocalState/LocalPlanningPlanning

State/LocalState/LocalPlanningPlanning

EnvironmentEnvironmentEnvironmentEnvironment

Flood MitigationFlood Mitigation& Navigation& Navigation

Flood MitigationFlood Mitigation& Navigation& Navigation

AgricultureAgricultureAgricultureAgriculture ReservoirReservoirControlControl

ReservoirReservoirControlControl

HealthHealthHealthHealth

SpaceSpaceOperationsOperations

SpaceSpaceOperationsOperations

TransportationTransportationTransportationTransportation

Fire WeatherFire WeatherFire WeatherFire Weather EnergyEnergyEnergyEnergy

OutlooksOutlooks

GuidanceGuidance

Threats Threats AssessmentsAssessments

ForecastsForecasts

WatchesWatches

Warnings & Warnings & Alert Alert

CoordinationCoordination

OutlooksOutlooks

GuidanceGuidance

Threats Threats AssessmentsAssessments

ForecastsForecasts

WatchesWatches

Warnings & Warnings & Alert Alert

CoordinationCoordination

Fo

reca

st L

ead

Tim

eF

ore

cast

Lea

d T

ime

1313

Seamless Suite of ProductsSeamless Suite of ProductsNational Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

• Focuses NWS Meteorologist on Focuses NWS Meteorologist on MeteorologyMeteorology

• Allows Private/Public Sector to Access Allows Private/Public Sector to Access Data Base for Their Own ApplicationData Base for Their Own Application

• Timeframe: FY 2003 - 2005Timeframe: FY 2003 - 2005

Beyond 2005, Working Toward a Beyond 2005, Working Toward a Complete Seamless 4-D DigitalComplete Seamless 4-D Digital• ObservationsObservations

• AnalysesAnalyses

• ForecastsForecasts

• Uncertainty InformationUncertainty Information

• Outlooks, Watches, WarningsOutlooks, Watches, Warnings

Gridded Gridded Forecast Forecast DatabaseDatabase

Gridded Gridded Forecast Forecast DatabaseDatabase

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

1414

Accurate CommunicationAccurate CommunicationAccurate CommunicationAccurate Communication

NOAA NWSNOAA NWS END USERSEND USERSPARTNERSPARTNERS

Need accurate, timely, easily communicated, Need accurate, timely, easily communicated, and understandable products!and understandable products!

Need accurate, timely, easily communicated, Need accurate, timely, easily communicated, and understandable products!and understandable products!

1515

New Products New Products The average person only sees the tip of the icebergThe average person only sees the tip of the iceberg

National Centers for Environmental PredictionModel SimulationsClimate & Seasonal Outlooks Aviation & Marine Forecasts Storm & Tornado Prediction Hurricane Tracks

National Centers for Environmental PredictionModel SimulationsClimate & Seasonal Outlooks Aviation & Marine Forecasts Storm & Tornado Prediction Hurricane Tracks

Private Weather Companies

122 Weather Forecast Offices Issue Local Forecasts & Warnings

122 Weather Forecast Offices Issue Local Forecasts & Warnings

ObservationsRadar Network, Satellites, Weather Balloons, Ground-level

observations at airports, Aircraft, Lightning Network, Data Buoys, Stream Gauge Network, 11,000 Volunteer daily-data collectors,

Thousands of Volunteer storm spotters

ObservationsRadar Network, Satellites, Weather Balloons, Ground-level

observations at airports, Aircraft, Lightning Network, Data Buoys, Stream Gauge Network, 11,000 Volunteer daily-data collectors,

Thousands of Volunteer storm spotters

Internet

Radio

TV

River ForecastsHydropower, Flood warningsIrrigation, River Navigation

River ForecastsHydropower, Flood warningsIrrigation, River Navigation

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

1616

Communicating Threats Communicating Threats Severe WeatherSevere Weather

Communicating Threats Communicating Threats Severe WeatherSevere Weather

Polygon Polygon EliminatesEliminatesFalse Alarm Area False Alarm Area

1717

1818

Communicating Threats Communicating Threats HurricanesHurricanes

Communicating Threats Communicating Threats HurricanesHurricanes

1919

2020

Communicating Threats Communicating Threats Advanced Hydrologic Prediction ServiceAdvanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

Communicating Threats Communicating Threats Advanced Hydrologic Prediction ServiceAdvanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

2121

Communicating Threats Communicating Threats Urban Flooding - GastonUrban Flooding - Gaston

Communicating Threats Communicating Threats Urban Flooding - GastonUrban Flooding - Gaston

August 30, 2004August 30, 2004

2222

Communicating ThreatsCommunicating ThreatsIndicesIndices

Communicating ThreatsCommunicating ThreatsIndicesIndices

• Today

– Wind Chill Index

– Heat Health Index

• Tomorrow

– Tornado F-scale Revision

– Winter Storm Index?

• Today

– Wind Chill Index

– Heat Health Index

• Tomorrow

– Tornado F-scale Revision

– Winter Storm Index?

2323

Awareness CampaignsAwareness CampaignsAwareness CampaignsAwareness Campaigns

2424

SummarySummarySummarySummary

• Partnerships are critical to ensure the right message is sent and received!

• Users need accurate, timely, easily communicated, and understandable information!

• Partnerships are critical to ensure the right message is sent and received!

• Users need accurate, timely, easily communicated, and understandable information!

www.weather.govwww.weather.gov