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Workshop:Mindmaps, Communication, Scenarios

Urban Transportation PlanningMIT Course 1.252j/11.380j

Fall 2002

Mikel Murga, MIT Research Associate

October 2 , 2002

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Urban Transportation Planning Fall 2002

Day 4.5

Table of Contents

! Working with Mindmaps

!

Communication tools! Forecasting and Scenarios

! Models: GIS, 4-step demand estimates,

traffic, noise pollution

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Day 4.5

Mindmapping

! Brainstorming: MindMapping (by Tony Buzan)

! From sequential thinking and note takingto tree structures

! Rearrange ideas

! Establish connections

! Let associations emerge

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Day 4.5

Mindmapping

!A whole-brainalternative tolinear thinking

! Retain both theoverall picture

and the details! Promote

associations

!You see what youknow and where thegaps are

! Clears your mind ofmental clutter

! It works well forgroup brainstorming

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Day 4.5

Mindmapping

! Let us do a joint MindMap

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Day 4.5

Communication Tools

MostLeast (9%)4thWriting

Next mostNext least(16%)

3rdReading

Next leastNext most(30%)

2ndSpeaking

LeastMost(45%)

1stListening

taughtusedlearned

Toastmasters? Speed reading?

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Day 4.5

Communication Tools

How Do you Visualize Change???

Remember that simulations could be critical

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Day 4.5

Other tools of the trade

! Creativity: Lateral thinking, tothink-out-of-the-box, thinkertoys

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Out-of-the-box thinkers

! Edward de Bono:

! Thinking Tools

! Six thinking hats

! Lateral Thinking

! Michael Michalko:

! Cracking Creativity

! ThinkerToys! Many others

! The intelligence trap

!

The Everest effect! Plus.Minus.Interesting.

! C.A.F. consider all factors

!

O.P.V. Other people view! To look for Alternatives

beyond the obvious

! Analyze Consequences

! Problem Solving and LateralThinking

! Provocations

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Models and Forecasting

! Forecasting:

! Short termextrapolation:The future onthe basis of the past

! Applicable to slowincremental change

! The problem is that people

believe that this situationwill continue for ever

! ButTime into the future

Forecasting

Scenarios

uncertainty

predictability

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And Scenarios

! A conceptual description of the future based on

cause and effect! Invent and analyze several stories of equally

plausible futures to bring forward surprises and

unexpected leaps of understanding

! Goal is not to create a future, nor to choose the

most probable one, but to make strategicdecisions that will be sound (or robust)under all plausible futures

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Scenarios: Why?

! History is a continuum ofpattern breaks

! We react to uncertainty thru denial(that is why a quantitative model is so reassuring!)

! But we cant predict the future with certainty

! By providing alternative images of the future:! We go from facts into perceptions, and,

! Open multiple perspectives

! Mental models, and myths, control what you doand keep you from raising the rightquestions

! Goal: Suspend disbelief in a story long enough to

appreciate its potential impact

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Day 4.5

Scenarios: How?

! Examine the environment in which your

actions will take place and see howthose actions will fit in the prevailing

forces, trends, attitudes and influences! Identify driving forces and critical

uncertainties

! Challenge prevailing mental modes

! Rehearse the implications

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Scenarios: Stages

1. Identify focal issue or decision

2. Identify driving forces in the local environment3. Identify driving forces in the macro environment

4. Rank the importance and uncertainty of each5. Select scenario logics (so as to tell a story)

6. Flesh-out the scenario in terms of driving forces

7. Analyze implications

8. Define leading indicators for monitoring

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Day 4.5

Reading on Scenarios

!The Art of the Long View by Peter

Schwartz!Scenarios: The Art of Strategic

Conversation by Kees van der Heijden

Both authors work for the Global BusinessNetwork (www.gbn.org) and come from theShell Planning Group

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Day 4.5

Scenarios and Demographics

! Fertility rate:

! Avg no. of childrenborn to women overtheir lifetime

!

Birth rate:! Total no of births

divided by the sizeof the population

! Canada claims alow fertility rate(1.7) but a high

birth rate. Howcome?

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Day 4.5

Scenarios and Demographics

! Is age a good predictor for:! Real estate?! Transit use?

! Use of hard drugs?

! If age is a good predictor,then:! Establish number of people in

each age group! Define probability for each age

group, of participation in agiven behavior or activity

A 19 yr old has little moneyand plenty of time to waitin the bus stop

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Day 4.5

Models

! How many types??! 4-step demand models

! Land-Use Transportation models

! G.I.S.?

! Traffic models

! Operation models

! Air pollution levels

! Noise impact models

! .

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Day 4.5

Geographic Information Systems (G.I.S.)

! GIS.

! Digital mapping: links with attributes! Data management: how many park-meters?

! Data analysis: aggregate or disaggregate

! Data presentation: graphical pie charts

! Some commercial packages:! ArcInfo! ArcView

! MapInfo

! TransCad GIS-T!

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Day 4.5


! Integration of 3 technologies:

! A graphical user interface (GUI)! A database management system (DBMS)

! Spatial modeling tools

! Example: From road maps to Points ofInterest (POI):! Up to 100 attributes per street! New smart roadmaps

! www.teleatlas.com www.navtech.com

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Day 4.5


How many residents, how many jobs, how manyshops within the catchment area of a station?

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07 Week5b