060626 Symposium an EBT PLN

1

PLN’s Planning Perspectives on Renewable Energy Development

and CDM Implementation

Dr. Herman Darnel IbrahimDirector Transmission and Distribution PT PLN [Persero]

Presented in the ECONIT Symposium on Renewable EnergyJakarta, 26 June 2006

ElectricityFor A BetterLife

www.pln.co.id

2

Part 1.PLN’s Current Capacity and Fuel Mix


3

Power Plant Outside Java Java-Bali Total % Hydro 624 2,391 3,015 11.96 Combine Cycle - Gas Fired 876 3,268 4,144 16.43 - Oil Fired - 2,717 2,717 10.77 Steam - Gas Fired - 1,000 1,000 3.97 - Oil Fired 310 800 1,110 4.40 - Coal 590 4,200 4,790 18.99 Geothermal 20 360 380 1.51 Gas Turbine 646 1416 2,062 8.18 Diesel 2441 109 2,550 10.11 Sub-Total 5,507 16,261 21,768 86.32 IPP 195 3,255 3,450 13.68

Total 5,702 19,516 25,218 100

Installed Capacity by Type of Plants [2005]ElectricityFor A BetterLife

4

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Batubara Gas Alam Panasbumi Hidro BBM

PLN’s Fuel Mix 1993-2000

Dari tahun 1993 sampai 1996 PLN berhasil menurunkan pemakaian energi primer BBM dari 54% menjadi 21,7%. Namun setelah itu naik kembali karena pembangkit PLTGU Tambak Lorok dan Muara Tawar tidak mendapatkan pasokan gas sesuai rencana semula.


5

11% 12% 10% 8% 8% 6%3% 3% 4% 4% 6% 5%

35% 34% 33% 38%41%

40%

30% 29%26%

26% 18%19%

21% 22%28% 24% 27% 30%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Hydro Geothermal Coal Gas Oil Fuel

PLN’s Fuel Mix in the Past 5 YearsElectricityFor A BetterLife

6

1980 1993 2005 2010

Inisiatif Diversivikasi 1980-an:• Membangun PLTU Batubara • Membangun PLTA besar• Membangun PLTP Kamojang

Inisiatif Diversivikasi 1990-an:• Membangun PLTU Batubara • Membangun PLTGU gas• Membangun beberapa PLTP• Listrik swasta non BBM

Inisiatif Diversivikasi 2000-an:• Membangun PLTU Batubara • Membangun PLTGU Gas Alam• Membangun PLTGU LNG• Listrik swasta non BBM• Konversi pembangkit BBM ke gas

1998

Krisis:• Penjualan tetap tumbuh• Pembangkit relatif tak bertambah

• Pertumbuhan dicover BBM

Pada 1997 porsi listrik

BBM 21%


BBM naik lagi: 30%


BBM 5%saja

PLN’s Diversification Program and ProgressElectricityFor A BetterLife

Sebelum 1980 porsi listrik

BBM 77%

Sebelum 1980: • Sebagian besar listrik

dari BBM• PLTA sebagian kecil• Belum ada PLTU

Batubara


BBM 54%

7

Part 2.PLN’s Generation Expansion Plan and

Fuel Mix 2006-2015


8

• Minimize the use of oil fuel in order to make a competitive electricity price with neighbouring countries [Least Cost principle].

• Maximize the use of natural gas for improving the conversion efficiency [combined cycle] and to obtain lower production cost [Least Cost principle].

• Promote the use of renewable [alternatives] energy mainly in providing electricity at rural [remote] area [ to support the Energy Policy set by the GOI]

• Apply Demand Side Management [through tariff mechanism etc.] which lead to a better load factor [Least Cost principle].

• Balance supply and demand in one region within the interconnected system [mainly Java-Bali and Sumatera]

General Policy of PLN in Power Development PlanningElectricity

For A BetterLife

9

Description Unit 2006 2007 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015Energy Sales GWh 113,760 122,939 133,610 158,603 186,921 220,404 239,494

- Growth % 7.5 8.1 8.7 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.7 Peak Load MW 21,316 22,970 24,873 29,348 34,385 40,304 43,694 Generation Capacity MW 29,263 31,822 34,964 41,396 48,547 55,369 59,045 Customers 10 3̂

- New connection 1,703 1,770 2,007 2,177 2,427 2,692 2,875 - Total Customer 36,123 37,893 39,900 44,334 49,059 54,311 57,186

Population 10 3̂ 221,628 224,387 227,170 232,760 238,343 243,993 246,804 Electrification ratio % 60.1 61.6 63.3 67.2 71.0 75.1 77.3 Consumption/Capita kWh 513 548 588 681 784 903 970

PLN’s Electrification Development Program 2006-2015Electricity

For A BetterLife

Within next 10 years PLN plan tohave some 20 millions new connection, so that Within next 10 years PLN plan tohave some 20 millions new connection, so that electrification ratio will increase from 55% in 2005 to 77% in 2015, and consumption electrification ratio will increase from 55% in 2005 to 77% in 2015, and consumption per capita will increase from 500 kWh in 2005 to 970 kWh in 2015per capita will increase from 500 kWh in 2005 to 970 kWh in 2015

10

Generation Expansion Plan 2006-2010

MWJenis 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 TotalNon RenwableImport 0 0 50 50 0 100PLTU 2209 418 849 1020 2259 6755PLTD 212 70 28.5 33.5 16 360PLTG 310 411 143 510 755 2129PLTGU 240 1345 1980 1049 161 4775PLTMG 0 2 0 0 0 2Subtotal 2971 2246 3050.5 2662.5 3191 14121RenewablePLTP 120 326 80 235 255 1016PLTM 22 26 11.5 1.5 6 67PLTA 312 0 49 0 180 541Subtotal 454 352 140.5 236.5 441 1624Total 3425 2598 3191 2899 3632 15745


11

MWJenis 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 TotalNon RenewableImport 0 0 0 0 0 0PLTU 3400 1133 1295 2871 2411 11110PLTD 50 27 10 25 11 123PLTG 11 350 346 480 746 1933PLTGU 500 750 1500 0 0 2750PLTMG 0 0 0 0 0 0Subtotal 3961 2260 3151 3376 3168 15916RenewablePLTP 0 120 0 0 0 120PLTM 2 6 1 3 8 20PLTA 284 818 906 285 150 2443Subtotal 286 944 907 288 158 2583Total 4247 3204 4058 3664 3326 18499


Generation Expansion Plan 2011-2015

12

40% 45% 45% 44% 44% 48% 51% 54% 57% 60% 64%

19%19%

32% 36% 40% 36% 32% 30% 27% 25% 22%

5%5%

6%6%

6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4%

6%10%

9%8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 7% 6%

30%22%

8% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Coal Gas Geothermal Hydro Oil Fuel

PLN’s Projected Fuel Mix 2006-2015ElectricityFor A BetterLife

13

Deskripsi Satuan 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Penjualan Energi TWh 114 123 134 146 159 Pertumbuhan % 7.5 8.1 8.7 9.4 8.5 Faktor Beban % 70 70 71 71 71 Beban Puncak Wilayah GW 21.3 23.0 24.9 27.1 29.3 Beban Puncak Sistem GW 20.2 21.8 23.6 25.8 27.9 Susut Jaringan % 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.1 Kap.Terpasang Pemb. GW 29.3 31.9 35.1 38.2 41.6 Cadangan % 38 39 41 41 42 Porsi BBM terhadap Total % 22.0 12.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Porsi Energi Terbarukan % 14.7 15.2 14.7 13.5 13.3 Tara Kalor kcal/kWh 1926 1926 1912 1926 1880SAIDI menit/plg/thn 250 217 177 164 140 SAIFI kali/plg/thn 8.8 7.5 6.3 5.4 4.5

Planning Indicators 2006-2010ElectricityFor A BetterLife

14

Part 3.PLN’s Renewable Energy

Development Program 2006-2015


15

Type of Energy Unit Total Existing Percentage

• Geothermal MW 27140 807 3.0• Hydro MW 75000 4125 5.5• Solar GW 1200 0.008

0.007• Wind MW 9290 0.6

0.0065• Biomass MW 49810 445 0.9• Biogas MW 680 0 0.0• Peat Mill BOE 16880 0 0.0• Tidal MW 240000 0 0.0

The Potential and the Utilized Renewable Energy SourcesElectricity

For A BetterLife

16

Planning for Renewable Energy Development

No Region Grid Scattered Total

1 Jawa-Bali 1660 0 1660

2 Sumatera 1275 9.2 1284.2

3 Kalimantan 130 2.9 132.9

4 Sulawesi 642 97.3 739.3

5 Nusa Tenggara

0 53.8 53.8

6 Maluku Papua

71 32.2 103.2

7 Total 3778 191.4 3973.4


17


Java and Bali Capacity Year Status

• PLTA P. S. Upper Cisokan 500 MW 2012 Plan• PLTA P. S. Upper Cisokan 500 MW 2013 Plan• PLTP Kamojang 5 60 MW 2010 Plan• PLTP Cibuni 10 MW 2007 Plan• PLTP Kamojang 4 60 MW 2006 Committed• PLTP Wayang Windu 110 MW 2007 Committed• PLTP Dieng 60 MW 2007 Committed• PLTP Dieng 60 MW 2008 Committed• PLTP Drajat 3 110 MW 2007 Committed• PLTP Patuha 60 MW 2006 Committed• PLTP Patuha 120 MW 2009 Committed• PLTP Bedugul 10 MW 2007 CommittedSubtotal 1660 MW


18

Sumatera Capacity Year Status

• PLTA Renun 20 MW 2005 On going• PLTA Musi 3 x 70 MW 2006 On going• PLTA Asahan III 154 MW 2011 Committed• PLTA Peusangan1,2 2 x 43 MW 2012 Plan• PLTA Asahan I 180 MW 2010 Committed• PLTA Merangin 350 MW 2013 Plan• PLTP Lumut Balai 110 MW 2012 Plan• PLTP Sarulla 110 MW 2009 Plan• PLTP Sarulla 55 MW 2010 PlanSubtotal 1275 MW

Sumatera Scattered• PLTM Mangani 1.2 MW 2007 Plan• PLTM Telun Berasap 8.0 MW 2007 PlanSubtotal 9.2 MW



19

Kalimantan Capacity Year Status

• PLTA Kusan 2 x 65 MW 2011 Plan

Subtotal 130 MW

Kalimantan Scattered

• PLTM Merasap [Kalbar] 1.5 MW 2007 Committed

• PLTM Muara Kendihin[Kalselteng] 0.6 MW 2010 Plan

• PLTM Puruk Cahu [Kalselteng] 0.4 MW 2012 Plan

• PLTM Gendang Timburu[Kalselteng] 0.4 MW 2013 Plan

Subtotal 2.9 MW



20

Sulawesi Capacity Year Status

Minahasa• PLTP Lahendong [Sulut] 20 MW 2007 Committed

• PLTP Lahendong [Sulut] 20 MW 2008 Committed• PLTA Poigar-2 [Sulut] 30 MW 2008 Committed• PLTA Sawangan[Sulut] 19 MW 2013 Plan• PLTA Bone [Sulut] 17 MW 2013 PlanSubtotal 106 MW

Makasar• PLTA Bili-Bili [Sulsel] 20 MW 2006 On Going• PLTA Malea [Sulsel] 182 MW 2012 Plan• PLTA Poko [Sulsel] 234 MW 2014 Plan• PLTA Bonto Batu[Sulsel] 100 MW 2015 PlanSubtotal 536 MW



21

Capacity YearStatus

Sulawesi Scattered [1]• PLTM Lobong [Sulut] 1.6 MW 2006 Committed• PLTM Mongango[Sulut] 1.2 MW 2007 On Going• PLTM Sawidago [Sulut] 0.8 MW 2007 Committed• PLTM Malewa[Sulut] 1.6 MW 2008 Committed• PLTM Milangodoa [Sulut] 2 x 0.7 MW 2011 Plan• PLTA Konaweha [Sulut] 50 MW 2012 Plan• PLTM Kolibagu[Sulut] 0.8 MW 2012 Plan• PLTM Hanga-Hanga [Sulut] 2 MW 2005 On Going• PLTM Kalumpang[Sulut] 1 MW 2005 On Going• PLTM Usu Malili[Sulsel] 4.9 MW 2006 PlanSubtotal 65.3 MW

Planning for Renewable Energy DevelopmentElectricity

For A BetterLife

22

Capacity Year Status

Sulawesi Scattered [2]

• Subtotal [previous] 65.3 MW

• PLTM Rantebala[Sulsel] 2.3 MW 2006 Plan

• PLTM Mikuasi [Sulsel] 2.4 MW 2006 Plan

• PLTM Kadundung[Sulsel] 1.6 MW 2006 Plan

• PLTM Batu Sitanduk[Sulsel] 2.6 MW 2006 Plan

• PLTM Mobuya[Sulsel] 3.0 MW 2006 Committed

• PLTM Sabilambo [Sulsel] 4.7 MW 2007 Plan

• PLTM Tangka[[Sulsel] 8.8 MW 2008 Plan

• PLTM Lapai [Sulsel] 2.4 MW 2010 Plan

• PLTM Rongi[Sulsel] 0.8 MW 2011 Plan

• PLTM Anoa [Sulsel] 3.4 MW 2012 Plan

Subtotal 97.3 MW


For A BetterLife

23

Nusa Tenggara Scattered Capacity Year Status

• PLTM Ndungga [NTT] 2 x 0.95 MW 2007 Committed• PLTM Santong [NTB] 0.85 MW 2008 Committed• PLTP Ulumbu [NTT] 2 x 3 MW 2007 Committed• PLTP Mataloko [NTT] 2 x 2.5 MW 2009 Plan• PLTP Sembalun [NTB] 10 MW 2010 Plan• PLTA Brangbeh [NTB] 30 MW 2015 PlanSubtotal 53.75 MW



Maluku and Papua Capacity Year Status

• PLTA Isal[Maluku] 20 MW 2013 Plan• PLTA Isal[Maluku] 20 MW 2015 Plan• PLTA Warsamson[Papua] 31 MW 2014 PlanSubtotal 71 MW

24

Maluku and Papua Scattered Capacity Year Status

• PLTM Amai[ Papua] 1.1 MW 2007 Plan• PLTM Kalibumi[Papua] 0.9 MW 2007 Committed• PLTM Prafi [Papua] 1.6 MW 2007 Committed• PLTM Sanoba[Papua] 0.3 MW 2007 Plan• PLTM Tatui [Papua] 1.2 MW 2007 Committed• PLTM Walesi[Papua] 0.3 MW 2007 On Going• PLTM Walesi[Papua] 0.3 MW 2008 On Going• PLTM Wamena[Papua] 2 x 0.5 MW 2007 Plan• PLTM Kombemur[Papua] 2.0 MW 2009 Plan• PLTM Serui[Papua] 0.8 MW 2010 Committed• PLTM Wamena[Papua] 2.6 MW 2010 Plan• PLTM Wamena[Papua] 2.6 MW 2014 Plan• PLTM Wanggar[Papua] 7.5 MW 2015 Plan• PLTP Tulehu[Maluku] 2 x 5 MW 2010 PlanSubtotal 32.2 MWGrand Total 3973.4 MW


For A BetterLife

25

54

2239

30

15 15 13

42 43

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2006 2009 2015

Coal Gas Oil Renewable


Projection of Renewable Energy in PLN’s Energy Mix 2006-2015*

* Revised [to be approved] PLN Plan [RUPTL]* Revised [to be approved] PLN Plan [RUPTL]

26

Part 4.PLN’s Policy on CDM


27

• PLN will take the opportunity to make use of CDM benefit in its project activities.

• The emission credits created through CDM project activities is expected to improve project attractiveness and attract the investment in power generation.

• For any project established under CDM, PLN should share the benefit either through reduced cost or reduced rate [compared to project established without CDM].

• CDM will be addressed in the planning stage [when preparing project Feasibility Studies] if information on CDM benefit for such project is available.

PLN’s Policies on CDMElectricityFor A BetterLife

28

• PLN planning has identified the need of 34244 Megawatt new power generation between 2006-2015. Around 4000 Megawatt of which will be renewable energy projects.

• PLN will do its best to identify projects which can be considered as CDM projects, so that implementetion of CDM can be addresed earlier during the planning stage.

• In order to incorporate CDM, PLN and the renewable energy player need the capacity building. Alternatively this can be done by the third party who specialised in CDM [Emission Trading].

ConclusionsElectricityFor A BetterLife

29


Terima Kasih Atas Perhatiannya

Thank Youwww.pln.co.id

Documents

060626 Symposium an EBT PLN