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Gisborne 2002 ( Michael Crozier))
Landslide triggering rainfall thresholds
- regional approaches
PD Dr. Thomas [email protected]
Regional
distributions
Earth flows / Debris flows
Hawke Bay 1988 ( Noel Trustrum)
Wairarapa1976 ( Noel Trustrum)
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Development of regional threshold models withdifferent
complexity (Ng & Pang 2000; NZ: Crozier & Eyles 1980;USA:
Keefer et al. 1987; HK:Dai et al. 2000)
Regional scenarios of future activityfrom GCM(Dehn 1999;Dehn et
al. 2000)
Aims
Establishing a landslide inventory
Organisation of daily climate-data
Analysis: Occurrence climatic conditions Coupling with
down-scaled GCM-Scenarios
Methods
Ng CWW &Pang YW (2000): Experimentalinvestigationsof the
soil-water characteristics of avolcanic soil.-Canadian Geotechnical
Journal 37(6), 1252-1264.
CrozierMJ & EylesRJ (1980): Assessing the probability of
rapidmass movement.-In: The New ZealandInstitution of Engineers -
Proceedings of Technical Groups(ed.): Proc.Third Australia-New
Zealand Conference on Geomechanics, Wellington, 6(Iss. 1 (G) Part
2), 2.47-2.51
KeeferDK, Wilson RC, Mark RK, BrabbEE, Brown III WM, Ellen SD,
Harp EL, Wieczorek GF, Alger CS & ZatkinRS (1987):
Real-timelandslide warning during heavy rainfall.-Science238(13
November 1987), 921-925.
Dai FC, Lee CF & Wang SJ (2000): Analysis of
rainfall-induced slide-debris flows on natural terrain of
LantauIsland, Hong Kong.-Engineering Geology 51(4), 279-290.
Dehn M (1999):Application of an analog downscaling techniqueto
the assessmentof future landslide activity- a case study in the
Italian Alps.- Climate Research 13, 103-113.
Dehn M, Brger G, BumaJ & Gasparetto P (2000): Impact
ofclimate change on slope stability using expanded
downscaling.-Engineering Geology 55, 193-204.
Bilder
9Soil characteristics
(Depth, soil moisture,
porosity, textur)
99
9
99
9
Climate
- PercipitationP-Antecedent rainfall Pa
- Pot. EvapotranspirationPE
Index soil-
water status
Antecedent
daily rain
Daily
rainParameter
Modell requirements
GladeT (2000):Modelling landslide triggering rainfall thresholds
at a range of complexities.- Landslides in Reserach, Theoryand
Practice,Proceedingsof the8 th International Symposium on
Landslides, 26-30 June 2000, Cardiff, UK, Thomas Telford, 2,
633-640.
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Daily Rainfall Model
Glade T (1998) Establishing the frequency and magnitude of
landslide-triggering rainstorm events in New Zealand.-Environmental
Geology35(2-3): 160-174.
1862-1995
Antecedent Daily Rainfall Model 1862-1995
Pa0 = P1 + 2kP2 + ...+ n
kPn
Glade T, Crozier MJ & Smith P (2000) Applying probability
determination to refine landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds
usinganempirical "Antecedent Daily Rainfall Model".- Pure and
Applied Geophysics 157(6-8): 1059-1079.
Pa
P
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Soil Water Status Index model
Glade T (2000): Modelling landslide-triggering rainfalls in
differentregions in NewZealand - the soil water status
model.-Zeitschrift frGeomorphologie 122: 63-84.
DS0 = DS1 (P0 PE0) EP0 = (P0 PE0) DS1
EPa0 = EP1 + 2kEP2 + ... + n
kEPn
DS EPa
Soil Water Status Index model 1931-1995
Glade T (2000): Modelling landslide-triggering rainfalls in
differentregions in NewZealand - the soil water status
model.-Zeitschrift fr
Geomorphologie 122: 63-84.
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Potential activity
in JJA 2070-2099in Wellington
Schmidt M & GladeT (2003) Linkingglobal circulation model
outputsto
regionalgeomorphic models: a case studyof landslide activity in
New Zealand.
Climate Research 25(2): 135-150.
Observations 1950-1979
Control-Run 1950-1979
Scenarios 2070-2099
Schmidt M & GladeT (2003) Linkingglobal circulation model
outputstoregionalgeomorphic models: a case studyof landslide
activity in NewZealand. Climate Research 25(2): 135-150.
P90
P30
P10
P1
Observations 1950-1979
P90
P30
P10
P1
Control-Run 1950-1979
P90
P30
P10
P1
Scenarios 2070-2099
Critical
Water
Content
TriggerAntecedent
Rain
IndexSoil-Water-
statusEvent
Crozier MJ (1997) The climate-landslide couple: a southern
hemisphereperspective. In: Matthews JA, Brunsden D, Frenzel B,
Glser B, Wei MM
(eds) Rapid mass movement asa source of climatic evidence for
theholocene, Vol 19. Gustav Fischer, Stuttgart, 333-354
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First application of threshold approach
Crozier MJ (1999) Prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides: A
test of the antecedent water status model.Earth Surface Processes
and
Landforms 24:825-833
Regional
distribution:
Landslides /
Rainfall
Black R.D. (1983): Wairoa
County Land Resource
Study.- Hawke's Bay
Catchment Board, 80/2.
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Data inputs:
Landslide data
Climate data (rainfall / temp.)
Complexity depends on model type
Daily rainfall model
Antecedent daily rainfall model
Soil water status model
Application potential: Coupling with GCMs
Determination of FUTURE landslides
Summary
Images: ESA Mars Express High Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC)
14.01.2004 (65km width, 12 Meter Pixel-Resolution)
Piemonte Rheinhessen
