06 Dec 2006WMO CIMO TECO-2006 Australia’s Composite Observing System: Identifying Future Directions Roger Atkinson and Susan Barrell Australian Bureau

06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006

Australia’s Composite Observing System:

Identifying Future Directions

Roger Atkinson and Susan Barrell

Australian Bureau of Meteorology


Presentation Overview

Orientation: Australia and its Obs System

Drivers for Change

Aims and Key Requirements

Study Tasking

Key Findings and Recommendations

Study Conclusions

Observing System Migration:

A Four Stage Strategy


Australia and Its Territories


The Observing System ~ 600 AWS ~ 500 Cooperative Observing Sites ~ 6000 Volunteer Rainfall ~ 50 Upper Air Sites:

o 38 Radiosondeo 10 Upper Wind Onlyo 3 B/L Profilers

~ 60 Weather Radars ~ 100 Volunteer Ships ~ 30 Drifting Buoys + Tidal Network (New) + Tsunami Warning Network (New) 0 Satellites (but 7 receiving sites + 2 TARS)


Drivers for Change

Increasing Pressure on Resources (especially Staff Numbers)

Need for Continually Increasing Efficiency and Accountability

Increasing Demand for Data

Increasing Demand for Service Level Agreements for Data Provision

Increasing OH&S Requirements

Improvements in Automated Technology


Basic Observing System Study 2005

Aims:

• Identify the observing system necessary for the Bureau of Meteorology to deliver effectively and efficiently on its agreed outputs to Government over the next 5 to 10 years.

• Develop end-to-end strategies for delivering that system, including strategies for migrating from existing to specified systems.

Key requirements:

Strategic

Pragmatic but thorough

Draw on the work of previous similar studies

Broad, organisation-wide participation


2015: Observing System Components

Delivery Of A Composite Observing System in 2015

Management Processes Composite Observing System

Key principles:

•Multiple needs & obligations

•Interoperability

•Strategic integration

•Cost effectiveness

•Meeting needs & priorities

•Science, systems & people

•Operations & networks

•Supporting systems & structures

World’s Best Practice Data Management

•Documented & managed processes

•Targets & monitoring

•Performance & feedback

•Information systems


Study Tasking

1. Survey of Previous Similar Studies

2. Concept: Bureau Composite Observing System

3. International Requirements for Data

4. National (Service) Requirements for Data

5. Existing Observing System

i. Obs. Networks and Programs

ii. Quality Management System

iii. Equipt. Maintenance and Replacement Strategy

iv. Reporting, Communications and Data Management

v. Radio Frequency Spectrum Management


Study Tasking (continued)

6. Adequacy Assessment

i. cf International Requirements

ii. cf National Requirements

iii. cf Other NMHSs

7. Value Assessment

i. Value of Services Provided

ii. Data Impact Studies

iii. Impact on Service Provision of Previous Changes to the Observing System



8. Future Requirements, Capabilities and Issues

i. Trends in Service Requirements

ii. New and Emerging Observing Technology

iii. Quality Management System

iv. Equipment Maintenance and Replacement

v. Data Communications

vi. Data Management

vii. RF Spectrum Management

viii. Use of Shared and/or 3rd Party Data and Systems



9. Findings and Recommendations

10. Forward Strategy


Key Findings and Recommendations

• Need to make more effective and extensive use of satellite information:• Harness the intrinsic information;

• Explore if they can supplement/partially replace more traditional surface-based systems.

• Need increased effort in visualisation of data• Integration of satellite and in situ data.

• Culture change issues:• Increase forecasters’ confidence in a more composite network

approach

• Reduce reliance on more traditional data sources (manual ‘visual element’ observations and radiosondes).


Key Findings and Recommendations (continued)

• Need a more structured long-term approach to the evaluation and implementation of new technologies:• Full lifecycle cost must be taken into account, including operation,

maintenance and end-of-life replacement.

• Next Generation AWS and Metadatabase have identified clear savings and operational efficiencies:• Should proceed on their development and evaluation tracks as

soon as possible.

• AMDAR program is also in this category:• Needs high-level support for evaluation of humidity sensors and

expansion of the national program.



• Wind profilers require further evaluation:• Promising partial replacement for Radar Windfinding.

• Scope for more automation in the field, but:• Ongoing critical need for annual recruitment and training of

Meteorological Observers;

• Engineering Services resources must be consistent with the increasing reliance on automated systems.

• Need for greater network coverage (surface observations and radar).

• Need increased frequency of observations (surface and upper air observations).



Ongoing role for radiosondes:o Strong desire amongst users for restoration of a more extensive

12Z network;

o Future rationalisation may be possible once other sources (satellite soundings, AMDAR profiles, wind profilers, GPS water vapour) are operational.

Need for greater accountability in BCOS operation: o More systematic performance reporting;

o Introduction of a formal quality systems.

Need data impact studies for:o Improved network design;

o Quantification of impacts from changes in obs coverage.



Need closer adherence to climate monitoring principles: o Especially overlaps with existing systems.

Must overcome key deficiencies in data archival and retrieval.


Conclusions

BCOS cannot be adequately maintained and developed over the coming decade within the currently-projected program resource envelope.

Require a significant short to medium term boost in investment to consolidate BCOS performance and enable development and implementation of alternative automated technologies.

A more automated, sustainable BCOS could then be implemented operationally and deliver, in the longer term, significant and ongoing efficiency gains, in particular with regard to the human resource levels.


Conclusions (continued)

This new BCOS would be characterised by larger data volumes but reduced ‘raw’ data quality.

Upgraded BCOS quality management system and larger ‘raw’ data volumes:

o more optimal utilisation of data;

o increased output data quality.

Overall, maintain current BCOS effectiveness despite expected increases in service demand.

Increase in short to medium term resource allocations to be largely repaid through reductions in staffing and infrastructure.

Modest ongoing savings follow once the BCOS stabilises.


Migration: A Four Stage Strategy

4 Overlapping Stages:

• Stage 1: Consolidate the Existing BCOS;

• Stage 2: Implement Overarching and Underpinning Initiatives;

• Stage 3: Develop and Test new Technology;

• Stage 4: Migrate to a New and Sustainable BCOS Configuration.


Stage 1: Consolidation

Address significant shortcomings in key areas without making significant changes to the techniques and technology employed within the BCOS.

Includes:• Upgrades to satellite data reception, ingestion and applications

software;

• Immediate restoration of the 12Z radiosonde program;

• Modest changes to surface observations networks;

• Restoration of the Atmosphere Watch Program.


Stage 2: Underpinning and Overarching Initiatives

Indirectly improve BCOS effectiveness and data utilisation, and upgrade the Bureau’s capacity to plan and provide for the BCOS.

Includes:• Upgrade the Bureau’s performance, impact and value measurement

capabilities;

• Improve BCOS quality management and spectrum management;

• Upgrade NWP, data display and data storage and retrieval systems;

• Develop means of utilising satellite data for climate analysis.


Stage 3: Develop and Test New Technology

• Further develop satellite applications software;

• Develop and trial Next Generation AWS and Data Processing and Dissemination System;

• Trial radar wind profilers, lightning sensors, automated evaporimeter, new agrometeorological sensors and other advanced and automated sensors for providing visual element observations;

• Test unattended operation of the Autosonde;

• Experiment with a redundant sensor model for basic surface quantities;

• Investigate needs for further expansion and upgrade of the weather watch radar network;

• Investigate scope for multi-tiered networks, and use of third party and/or shared data and systems.


Stage 4: BCOS Migration

Implement various new technologies (subject to successful development and trialing) as a partial replacement for current manually-intensive technology.

Includes: Expand AMDAR program (including WVSS2 deployment);

Deploy BL and ST profilers at wind-only upper air sites and some existing radiosonde sites;

Deploy local lightning sensors on all AWS;

Implement various other new technologies in the surface network;

Establish GPS water vapour network, and

Expand and upgrade the weather radar network.


Thank You

[email protected]

Documents

06 Dec 2006WMO CIMO TECO-2006 Australia’s Composite Observing System: Identifying Future Directions Roger Atkinson and Susan Barrell Australian Bureau