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Page 1: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.30

Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20

YOJ ASX 300 (relative)

Page 2: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market
Page 3: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market
Page 4: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market
Page 5: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market
Page 6: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market

US $Billion 2018 GDP Logistics

(GDP%)

2018

Logistics

Cost

3PL

Revenue

(%)

2018 3PL

Revenue

OVERALL TAM:

Digital

Transformation via

Saas platform

Saves 3PLs Est.

10% of Overall on

3PL Revenue Base

(US$billion)

Monetising the

Opportunity:

Platform Company

charges 10% of the

Savings Generated

(AU$million)

YOJEE

SERVICEABLE

OPPORTUNITY

being approx. 50%

of Savings

Opportunity

excludes inelligible

movements

(AU$million)

YOJEE TARGET

MARKET SHARE of

50% of the YOJEE

SERVICEABLE

Opportunity

(AU$million)

A B = A * 10% C = B*10%*0.72 D = C * 50% E = D * 50%

Asia Pacific - Others 84.2 17.1% 14.4 7.6% 1.1 0.1 15.3 7.6 3.8

Australia 1,418.3 8.6% 122.0 10.4% 12.7 1.3 176.4 88.2 44.1

Indonesia 1,022.5 22.0% 224.9 7.5% 16.9 1.7 234.7 117.4 58.7

Japan 4,971.9 8.5% 422.6 10.7% 45.2 4.5 627.8 313.9 156.9

Malaysia 354.3 13.0% 46.1 7.4% 3.4 0.3 47.2 23.6 11.8

New Zealand 203.4 11.2% 22.8 9.6% 2.2 0.2 30.6 15.3 7.6

Philippines 330.8 13.0% 43.0 7.2% 3.1 0.3 43.1 21.5 10.8

Singapore 361.1 8.5% 30.7 11.7% 3.6 0.4 50.0 25.0 12.5

South Korea 1,619.4 9.0% 145.6 11.3% 16.5 1.7 229.2 114.6 57.3

Taiwan 589.4 9.0% 53.2 11.1% 5.9 0.6 81.9 41.0 20.5

Thailand 487.2 15.0% 73.1 7.5% 5.5 0.6 76.4 38.2 19.1

Vietnam 241.3 20.0% 48.3 7.7% 3.7 0.4 51.4 25.7 12.8

Cambodia 24.5 16.3% 4.0 7.5% 0.3 0.0 4.2 2.1 1.0

Lao P.D.R. 18.4 17.9% 3.3 6.1% 0.2 0.0 2.8 1.4 0.7

Myanmar (Burma) 68.6 17.2% 11.8 7.6% 0.9 0.1 12.5 6.3 3.1

Brunei Darussalam 14.1 14.9% 2.1 9.5% 0.2 0.0 2.8 1.4 0.7

SE ASIA Ex-China 11,809.4 10.7% 1,267.9 9.6% 121.4 12.1 1,686.1 843.1 421.5Share of World 14% 14% 13%

ARMSTRONG AND ASSOCIATES DATA BLUE OCEAN EQUITIES CALCULATIONS

Page 7: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market
Page 8: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market
Page 9: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market

Revenue Model - GEODIS Ml'sia/S'pore/Th'lnd Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22

Geodis Revenue Base (Annualised, US$bn) 2.0 2.00 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05

Annual Growth in Revenue Base (%) 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

Seasonality Factor 0.27 0.24 0.22 0.27 0.27 0.24 0.22 0.27

AUDUSD Rate 0.7200 0.7200 0.7200 0.7200 0.7200 0.7200 0.7200 0.7200

Addressable Revenue Base (A$million) 750.0 666.7 611.1 753.8 757.5 676.7 623.4 768.9

Platform Savings Potential 10%

YOJ Share of Savings 10%

YOJ Share of Addressable Revenue Base 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

YOJ Potential Revenue Base 7.5 6.7 6.1 7.5 7.6 6.8 6.2 7.7

Contract Implementation Factor (0% to 100%) Assumes 2% 12% 22% 32% 42% 52% 62%

Account Penetration Factor (0% to 100%) 1st Nov 25% 45% 50% 55% 58% 75% 80%

Rate / Volume trade Off (100% to 75%) Go-Live 100% 100% 98% 96% 94% 92% 90%

EST. Yojee Revenue -GEODIS 3 countries (A$m) - 0.033 0.330 0.813 1.280 1.538 2.243 3.447

Page 10: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market

Maersk SSS TSM Contract Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22

Thailand container port traffic (mteupa) 21.9 21.9 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.3 22.4 22.5

Singapore container port traffic (mteupa) 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.4 32.5 32.7 32.9 33.0

Malaysia container port traffic (mteupa) 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.1

TOTAL Container Port Traffic (mteupa) 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.3 64.6 65.0 65.3 65.6

Annual Growth in container traffic 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

Est. Maersk Market Share (inc Damco) 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%

Proportion transshipment 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60%

Avg Actions per container (drop-off/pick-up) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Seasonality Factor 0.27 0.24 0.22 0.27 0.27 0.24 0.22 0.27

Billable Container Actions (million) 3.5 3.1 2.8 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.9 3.5

Unit Pricing (A$ per container action) 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40

Addressable Revenue Base (A$m) 4.838 4.301 3.942 4.863 4.887 4.366 4.022 4.961

Contract Implementation Thailand (0% to 100%) Assumes 2% 12% 22% 32% 42% 52% 62%

Contract Implementation Singapore (0% to 100%) 1st Nov 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55%

Contract Implementation Malaysia (0% to 100%) Go-Live 5% 15% 25% 35% 45%

EST. Yojee Revenue - Maersk Contract TSM (A$m) - 0.029 0.261 0.771 1.264 1.565 1.844 2.771

Page 11: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market

Revenue by Contract SOWs ($m) H1FY21 H2FY21 H1FY22 H2FY22 H1FY23 H2FY23

Existing SME Client Base 0.28 0.29 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34

Kuehne + Nagel (Philippines) 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27

GEODIS (Thailand/Singapore/Malaysia) 0.03 1.14 2.82 5.69 8.61 11.27

Maersk (Thailand/Singapore/Malaysia) 0.03 1.03 2.83 4.62 6.66 8.34

TOTAL (HALF YEAR) 0.62 2.73 6.22 10.89 15.88 20.22

TOTAL (FULL YEAR) 3.4 17.1 36.1

($m) 30-June 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Revenue 110.957 3.4 17.1 36.1 43.5 43.2

Revenue Growth 412.3% 410.7% 110.9% 20.6% -0.7%

EBITDA 140.176 -3.6 6.9 18.1 20.2 20.0

Growth Rate -28.0% -291.7% 161.5% 11.3% -0.5%

EBITDA Margin -107.8% 40.4% 50.1% 46.3% 46.4%

Tax Paid 1.2 (2.0) (5.3) (6.0) (6.0)

P&L Tax Rate 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%

Working Capital (0.2) (0.6) (0.8) (0.3) 0.0

W/C as a Pct Sales 1.7% 2.5% 3.0% 3.8% 4.1%

Capital Expenditure (0.2) (0.2) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4)

Capex as a Pct Sales 5.7% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

Free CashFlow (2.8) 4.2 11.6 13.4 13.6

Date: 10-Sep-20 30-Jun-21 30-Jun-22 30-Jun-23 30-Jun-24 30-Jun-25

Discount Factor: 0.98 0.90 0.84 0.78 0.72

Present Value of Free CashFlow (2.2) 3.8 9.7 10.4 9.7

Terminal Year CashFlow 14.0

Terminal Value 174.6

Present Value of Terminal Value 125.4

Present Value of Free Cash Flow 31.4

Present Value Of Terminal Cash Flow 125.4

Less: Net Debt (Cash) (2.2)

Total Net Present Value Equity 159.0

Number of Shares (Mill ion) 987.7

Equity DCF Value per Share $0.16

Equity DCF Per Share $0.16

Page 12: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market

Revenue

Opportunity

(A$M)

Assumed

Multiple

(times)

Valuation

(A$m)

Cumulative

Valuation

(A$m)

Cumulative

Valuation

($/share)

DCF Based Valuation of Current Contracts 159.0 $0.16

PLUS: Potential Strategic Rollout Scenarios:

Philippines SOW Expansion

Add: 8 hubs @ 50k items per day, transaction fee at

US$0.12 per item. 20.5 3.0 61.5 220.5 $0.22

Maersk 2PL Extension

Assuming 20% of the addressable Container Actions in

the SSS contract require deconsolidation into pallets with

20 pallets per container at US$0.40 per pallet. 30.7 3.0 92.2 312.7 $0.32

Indonesia Market Expansion

Based on 1% of the addressable Indonesion 3PL market

of US$16.9bn. Assuming half of this revenue base can be

serviced by Yojee's platform and that Yojee in turn secure

a 50% share of this amount. 58.7 2.5 146.7 459.4 $0.47

Vietnam Market Extension

Based on 1% of addressable Vietnam 3PL market of

US$3.7bn. Assuming half of this revenue base can be

serviced by Yojee's platform and that Yojee in turn secure

a 50% share of this amount. 12.8 2.5 32.1 491.5 $0.50

NB: USDAUD@ 0.72

SHARE PRICE TARGET

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Page 13: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market
Page 14: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market
Page 15: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market
Page 16: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market
Page 17: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market
Page 18: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market

Stock Details

Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m

Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market Cap $217m

Share price $0.245 Avg Mthly Value $3.8m Enterprise Value $213m

Upside/downside 103% Financial Year End 30-June Free Float 95%

Profit & Loss ($m) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Ratio Analysis FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

Operating Revenue 0.5 0.7 3.4 17.1 36.1 Revenue Growth 47% 24% 412% 411% 111%Other Revenue 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 EBITDA Growth 34% -34% 28% 292% 162%

Total Revenue 0.6 0.8 3.5 17.2 36.2 EBIT Growth 34% -39% 26% 271% 166%

Operating Costs -4.4 -5.8 -7.1 -10.3 -18.1 NPAT Growth 35% -48% 51% 273% 168%EBITDA (Inc.Assoc) -3.8 -5.0 -3.6 6.9 18.1

D&A 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 EBITDA Margin -738% -767% -108% 40% 50%

EBIT -3.8 -5.3 -3.9 6.6 17.7 EBIT Margin -744% -803% -116% 39% 49%

Net Interest Expense 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Tax Rate 0% -5% 30% 30% 30%

Pre-Tax Profit -3.7 -5.2 -3.8 6.6 17.8 NPAT Margin -731% -842% -80% 27% 34%

Tax Expense 0.0 -0.3 1.2 -2.0 -5.3

Minority Interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt (Cash) -3.4 -4.1 -0.5 -2.3 -11.5

NPAT Normalised -3.7 -5.5 -2.7 4.7 12.4 Total Debt 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Pref Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Current Debt / Total Debt 0.0% 87.4% 87.4% 87.4% 87.4%

One-Offs after tax 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

NPAT Reported -3.7 -6.2 -2.7 4.7 12.4 Net Debt / Equity 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt / Net Debt + Equity 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Balance Sheet ($m) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E EBIT Interest Cover Large Large Large Large Large

Cash 3.4 4.3 0.7 2.5 11.7 Total Debt / EBITDA (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Inventory 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Receivables 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.1 4.4 EBITDA Cash Conversion 119% 84% 125% 60% 82%

Other 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 NPAT Cash Conversion 119% 77% 137% 44% 75%

Current Assets 3.6 4.5 1.3 4.7 16.2 Free Cashflow (FCF) -4.4 -4.1 -3.5 2.0 9.3

PPE 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 FCF / Operating Cashflow 100% 100% 106% 91% 96%

Intangible Assets 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0

Other 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.2 5.8 Working Capital / Sales -19.5% -4.3% 1.7% 2.5% 3.0%

Non-Current Assets 5.1 5.5 6.2 8.5 11.0 Capex / Sales 1% 1% 6% 1% 1%

Total Assets 8.7 10.0 7.5 13.2 27.2 Depreciation / Sales 6.2% 29.5% 5.7% 1.2% 1.0%

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capex / Depreciation 8% 4% 100% 100% 100%

Payables 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 3.0 DUPONT ANALYSIS

Interest Bearing Liabs 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 EBIT Margin -743.7% -802.7% -115.9% 38.8% 48.9%

Other 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 x Interest Burden 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Current Liabilities 0.7 0.7 1.0 2.0 3.5 x Tax Burden 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7

Interest Bearing Liabs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x Asset Turnover 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.7 1.8

Other 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 = ROA -52.4% -59.0% -30.7% 44.9% 61.7%

Non-Current Liabilities 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 x Leverage 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2

Total Liabilities 0.7 0.9 1.1 2.1 3.6 = ROE -57.7% -64.3% -34.5% 53.0% 71.8%

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Contributed Equity 25.1 31.7 31.7 31.7 31.7 ROIC -71.2% -76.5% -49.4% 63.0% 118.6%

Reserves + Retained -17.1 -22.5 -25.2 -20.6 -8.1

Minorities & Convertibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Shares On Issue (million) 847.4 985.3 983.0 983.0 983.0

Total Equity 8.0 9.2 6.5 11.1 23.6 EFPOWA (million) 842.6 906.4 983.6 983.0 983.0

Cashflow Statement ($m) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Share Price: $0.25 FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

Gross Operating Cash Flow -4.5 -4.2 -4.5 4.2 14.9 Normalised EPS (¢) -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 0.5 1.3

Net Interest 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 EPS Growth 49.9% -37.8% 54.9% 272.7% 167.6%

Tax Paid 0.0 0.0 1.2 -2.0 -5.3 PE NA NA NA 51.8 19.4

Other 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 FCFPS (¢) -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.2 0.9

Net Operating Cash Flows -4.4 -4.1 -3.3 2.2 9.7 P/FCF NA NA NA 122.1 25.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Payments for PPE 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 DPS (¢) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Payments for Acquisitions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Other -1.9 -1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Net Investing Cash Flows -1.9 -1.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 Franking 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net Share Issues 8.0 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 BVPS ($) $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.02

Net Borrowings 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/BV 26.0 26.4 37.3 21.7 10.2

Dividends Paid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NTAPS ($) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.02

Other -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/NTA 71.0 62.1 188.8 40.1 13.0

Net Financing Cash Flows 7.6 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/EBITDA NA NA NA 30.8 11.8

Change in Cash Held 1.3 0.9 -3.5 2.0 9.3 EV/EBIT NA NA NA 32.1 12.1

Cash at Beginning of Period 2.0 3.4 4.3 0.7 2.5

Adjustments 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 EV/EBITDA (at Target $0.50) NA NA NA 70.4 26.9

Cash at End of Period 3.4 4.3 0.7 2.5 11.7 EV/EBIT (at Target $0.50) NA NA NA 73.4 27.6

Page 19: $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 · 2020. 8. 25. · Stock Details Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market