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Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20
YOJ ASX 300 (relative)
US $Billion 2018 GDP Logistics
(GDP%)
2018
Logistics
Cost
3PL
Revenue
(%)
2018 3PL
Revenue
OVERALL TAM:
Digital
Transformation via
Saas platform
Saves 3PLs Est.
10% of Overall on
3PL Revenue Base
(US$billion)
Monetising the
Opportunity:
Platform Company
charges 10% of the
Savings Generated
(AU$million)
YOJEE
SERVICEABLE
OPPORTUNITY
being approx. 50%
of Savings
Opportunity
excludes inelligible
movements
(AU$million)
YOJEE TARGET
MARKET SHARE of
50% of the YOJEE
SERVICEABLE
Opportunity
(AU$million)
A B = A * 10% C = B*10%*0.72 D = C * 50% E = D * 50%
Asia Pacific - Others 84.2 17.1% 14.4 7.6% 1.1 0.1 15.3 7.6 3.8
Australia 1,418.3 8.6% 122.0 10.4% 12.7 1.3 176.4 88.2 44.1
Indonesia 1,022.5 22.0% 224.9 7.5% 16.9 1.7 234.7 117.4 58.7
Japan 4,971.9 8.5% 422.6 10.7% 45.2 4.5 627.8 313.9 156.9
Malaysia 354.3 13.0% 46.1 7.4% 3.4 0.3 47.2 23.6 11.8
New Zealand 203.4 11.2% 22.8 9.6% 2.2 0.2 30.6 15.3 7.6
Philippines 330.8 13.0% 43.0 7.2% 3.1 0.3 43.1 21.5 10.8
Singapore 361.1 8.5% 30.7 11.7% 3.6 0.4 50.0 25.0 12.5
South Korea 1,619.4 9.0% 145.6 11.3% 16.5 1.7 229.2 114.6 57.3
Taiwan 589.4 9.0% 53.2 11.1% 5.9 0.6 81.9 41.0 20.5
Thailand 487.2 15.0% 73.1 7.5% 5.5 0.6 76.4 38.2 19.1
Vietnam 241.3 20.0% 48.3 7.7% 3.7 0.4 51.4 25.7 12.8
Cambodia 24.5 16.3% 4.0 7.5% 0.3 0.0 4.2 2.1 1.0
Lao P.D.R. 18.4 17.9% 3.3 6.1% 0.2 0.0 2.8 1.4 0.7
Myanmar (Burma) 68.6 17.2% 11.8 7.6% 0.9 0.1 12.5 6.3 3.1
Brunei Darussalam 14.1 14.9% 2.1 9.5% 0.2 0.0 2.8 1.4 0.7
SE ASIA Ex-China 11,809.4 10.7% 1,267.9 9.6% 121.4 12.1 1,686.1 843.1 421.5Share of World 14% 14% 13%
ARMSTRONG AND ASSOCIATES DATA BLUE OCEAN EQUITIES CALCULATIONS
Revenue Model - GEODIS Ml'sia/S'pore/Th'lnd Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22
Geodis Revenue Base (Annualised, US$bn) 2.0 2.00 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05
Annual Growth in Revenue Base (%) 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Seasonality Factor 0.27 0.24 0.22 0.27 0.27 0.24 0.22 0.27
AUDUSD Rate 0.7200 0.7200 0.7200 0.7200 0.7200 0.7200 0.7200 0.7200
Addressable Revenue Base (A$million) 750.0 666.7 611.1 753.8 757.5 676.7 623.4 768.9
Platform Savings Potential 10%
YOJ Share of Savings 10%
YOJ Share of Addressable Revenue Base 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
YOJ Potential Revenue Base 7.5 6.7 6.1 7.5 7.6 6.8 6.2 7.7
Contract Implementation Factor (0% to 100%) Assumes 2% 12% 22% 32% 42% 52% 62%
Account Penetration Factor (0% to 100%) 1st Nov 25% 45% 50% 55% 58% 75% 80%
Rate / Volume trade Off (100% to 75%) Go-Live 100% 100% 98% 96% 94% 92% 90%
EST. Yojee Revenue -GEODIS 3 countries (A$m) - 0.033 0.330 0.813 1.280 1.538 2.243 3.447
Maersk SSS TSM Contract Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22
Thailand container port traffic (mteupa) 21.9 21.9 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.3 22.4 22.5
Singapore container port traffic (mteupa) 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.4 32.5 32.7 32.9 33.0
Malaysia container port traffic (mteupa) 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.1
TOTAL Container Port Traffic (mteupa) 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.3 64.6 65.0 65.3 65.6
Annual Growth in container traffic 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Est. Maersk Market Share (inc Damco) 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Proportion transshipment 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60%
Avg Actions per container (drop-off/pick-up) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Seasonality Factor 0.27 0.24 0.22 0.27 0.27 0.24 0.22 0.27
Billable Container Actions (million) 3.5 3.1 2.8 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.9 3.5
Unit Pricing (A$ per container action) 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40
Addressable Revenue Base (A$m) 4.838 4.301 3.942 4.863 4.887 4.366 4.022 4.961
Contract Implementation Thailand (0% to 100%) Assumes 2% 12% 22% 32% 42% 52% 62%
Contract Implementation Singapore (0% to 100%) 1st Nov 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55%
Contract Implementation Malaysia (0% to 100%) Go-Live 5% 15% 25% 35% 45%
EST. Yojee Revenue - Maersk Contract TSM (A$m) - 0.029 0.261 0.771 1.264 1.565 1.844 2.771
Revenue by Contract SOWs ($m) H1FY21 H2FY21 H1FY22 H2FY22 H1FY23 H2FY23
Existing SME Client Base 0.28 0.29 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34
Kuehne + Nagel (Philippines) 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27
GEODIS (Thailand/Singapore/Malaysia) 0.03 1.14 2.82 5.69 8.61 11.27
Maersk (Thailand/Singapore/Malaysia) 0.03 1.03 2.83 4.62 6.66 8.34
TOTAL (HALF YEAR) 0.62 2.73 6.22 10.89 15.88 20.22
TOTAL (FULL YEAR) 3.4 17.1 36.1
($m) 30-June 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue 110.957 3.4 17.1 36.1 43.5 43.2
Revenue Growth 412.3% 410.7% 110.9% 20.6% -0.7%
EBITDA 140.176 -3.6 6.9 18.1 20.2 20.0
Growth Rate -28.0% -291.7% 161.5% 11.3% -0.5%
EBITDA Margin -107.8% 40.4% 50.1% 46.3% 46.4%
Tax Paid 1.2 (2.0) (5.3) (6.0) (6.0)
P&L Tax Rate 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Working Capital (0.2) (0.6) (0.8) (0.3) 0.0
W/C as a Pct Sales 1.7% 2.5% 3.0% 3.8% 4.1%
Capital Expenditure (0.2) (0.2) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4)
Capex as a Pct Sales 5.7% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Free CashFlow (2.8) 4.2 11.6 13.4 13.6
Date: 10-Sep-20 30-Jun-21 30-Jun-22 30-Jun-23 30-Jun-24 30-Jun-25
Discount Factor: 0.98 0.90 0.84 0.78 0.72
Present Value of Free CashFlow (2.2) 3.8 9.7 10.4 9.7
Terminal Year CashFlow 14.0
Terminal Value 174.6
Present Value of Terminal Value 125.4
Present Value of Free Cash Flow 31.4
Present Value Of Terminal Cash Flow 125.4
Less: Net Debt (Cash) (2.2)
Total Net Present Value Equity 159.0
Number of Shares (Mill ion) 987.7
Equity DCF Value per Share $0.16
Equity DCF Per Share $0.16
❖
❖
❖
Revenue
Opportunity
(A$M)
Assumed
Multiple
(times)
Valuation
(A$m)
Cumulative
Valuation
(A$m)
Cumulative
Valuation
($/share)
DCF Based Valuation of Current Contracts 159.0 $0.16
PLUS: Potential Strategic Rollout Scenarios:
Philippines SOW Expansion
Add: 8 hubs @ 50k items per day, transaction fee at
US$0.12 per item. 20.5 3.0 61.5 220.5 $0.22
Maersk 2PL Extension
Assuming 20% of the addressable Container Actions in
the SSS contract require deconsolidation into pallets with
20 pallets per container at US$0.40 per pallet. 30.7 3.0 92.2 312.7 $0.32
Indonesia Market Expansion
Based on 1% of the addressable Indonesion 3PL market
of US$16.9bn. Assuming half of this revenue base can be
serviced by Yojee's platform and that Yojee in turn secure
a 50% share of this amount. 58.7 2.5 146.7 459.4 $0.47
Vietnam Market Extension
Based on 1% of addressable Vietnam 3PL market of
US$3.7bn. Assuming half of this revenue base can be
serviced by Yojee's platform and that Yojee in turn secure
a 50% share of this amount. 12.8 2.5 32.1 491.5 $0.50
NB: USDAUD@ 0.72
SHARE PRICE TARGET
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Stock Details
Recommendation BUY 52 Week High $0.24 Shares on Issue 987.7m
Valuation $0.50 52 Week Low $0.01 Market Cap $217m
Share price $0.245 Avg Mthly Value $3.8m Enterprise Value $213m
Upside/downside 103% Financial Year End 30-June Free Float 95%
Profit & Loss ($m) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Ratio Analysis FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
Operating Revenue 0.5 0.7 3.4 17.1 36.1 Revenue Growth 47% 24% 412% 411% 111%Other Revenue 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 EBITDA Growth 34% -34% 28% 292% 162%
Total Revenue 0.6 0.8 3.5 17.2 36.2 EBIT Growth 34% -39% 26% 271% 166%
Operating Costs -4.4 -5.8 -7.1 -10.3 -18.1 NPAT Growth 35% -48% 51% 273% 168%EBITDA (Inc.Assoc) -3.8 -5.0 -3.6 6.9 18.1
D&A 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 EBITDA Margin -738% -767% -108% 40% 50%
EBIT -3.8 -5.3 -3.9 6.6 17.7 EBIT Margin -744% -803% -116% 39% 49%
Net Interest Expense 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Tax Rate 0% -5% 30% 30% 30%
Pre-Tax Profit -3.7 -5.2 -3.8 6.6 17.8 NPAT Margin -731% -842% -80% 27% 34%
Tax Expense 0.0 -0.3 1.2 -2.0 -5.3
Minority Interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt (Cash) -3.4 -4.1 -0.5 -2.3 -11.5
NPAT Normalised -3.7 -5.5 -2.7 4.7 12.4 Total Debt 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Pref Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Current Debt / Total Debt 0.0% 87.4% 87.4% 87.4% 87.4%
One-Offs after tax 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
NPAT Reported -3.7 -6.2 -2.7 4.7 12.4 Net Debt / Equity 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt / Net Debt + Equity 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Balance Sheet ($m) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E EBIT Interest Cover Large Large Large Large Large
Cash 3.4 4.3 0.7 2.5 11.7 Total Debt / EBITDA (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Inventory 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Receivables 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.1 4.4 EBITDA Cash Conversion 119% 84% 125% 60% 82%
Other 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 NPAT Cash Conversion 119% 77% 137% 44% 75%
Current Assets 3.6 4.5 1.3 4.7 16.2 Free Cashflow (FCF) -4.4 -4.1 -3.5 2.0 9.3
PPE 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 FCF / Operating Cashflow 100% 100% 106% 91% 96%
Intangible Assets 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.2 5.8 Working Capital / Sales -19.5% -4.3% 1.7% 2.5% 3.0%
Non-Current Assets 5.1 5.5 6.2 8.5 11.0 Capex / Sales 1% 1% 6% 1% 1%
Total Assets 8.7 10.0 7.5 13.2 27.2 Depreciation / Sales 6.2% 29.5% 5.7% 1.2% 1.0%
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capex / Depreciation 8% 4% 100% 100% 100%
Payables 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 3.0 DUPONT ANALYSIS
Interest Bearing Liabs 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 EBIT Margin -743.7% -802.7% -115.9% 38.8% 48.9%
Other 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 x Interest Burden 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Current Liabilities 0.7 0.7 1.0 2.0 3.5 x Tax Burden 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7
Interest Bearing Liabs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x Asset Turnover 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.7 1.8
Other 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 = ROA -52.4% -59.0% -30.7% 44.9% 61.7%
Non-Current Liabilities 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 x Leverage 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2
Total Liabilities 0.7 0.9 1.1 2.1 3.6 = ROE -57.7% -64.3% -34.5% 53.0% 71.8%
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Contributed Equity 25.1 31.7 31.7 31.7 31.7 ROIC -71.2% -76.5% -49.4% 63.0% 118.6%
Reserves + Retained -17.1 -22.5 -25.2 -20.6 -8.1
Minorities & Convertibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Shares On Issue (million) 847.4 985.3 983.0 983.0 983.0
Total Equity 8.0 9.2 6.5 11.1 23.6 EFPOWA (million) 842.6 906.4 983.6 983.0 983.0
Cashflow Statement ($m) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Share Price: $0.25 FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
Gross Operating Cash Flow -4.5 -4.2 -4.5 4.2 14.9 Normalised EPS (¢) -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 0.5 1.3
Net Interest 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 EPS Growth 49.9% -37.8% 54.9% 272.7% 167.6%
Tax Paid 0.0 0.0 1.2 -2.0 -5.3 PE NA NA NA 51.8 19.4
Other 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 FCFPS (¢) -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.2 0.9
Net Operating Cash Flows -4.4 -4.1 -3.3 2.2 9.7 P/FCF NA NA NA 122.1 25.9
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Payments for PPE 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 DPS (¢) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Payments for Acquisitions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other -1.9 -1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Net Investing Cash Flows -1.9 -1.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 Franking 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Share Issues 8.0 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 BVPS ($) $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.02
Net Borrowings 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/BV 26.0 26.4 37.3 21.7 10.2
Dividends Paid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NTAPS ($) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.02
Other -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/NTA 71.0 62.1 188.8 40.1 13.0
Net Financing Cash Flows 7.6 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/EBITDA NA NA NA 30.8 11.8
Change in Cash Held 1.3 0.9 -3.5 2.0 9.3 EV/EBIT NA NA NA 32.1 12.1
Cash at Beginning of Period 2.0 3.4 4.3 0.7 2.5
Adjustments 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 EV/EBITDA (at Target $0.50) NA NA NA 70.4 26.9
Cash at End of Period 3.4 4.3 0.7 2.5 11.7 EV/EBIT (at Target $0.50) NA NA NA 73.4 27.6