02/04/12 Update - Stock Market Trends & Observations

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Stock Market Update – 02/04/12Pos ted February 5 , 2012 by Bob

Categories: DA ILY UPDA TE

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CYCLES

Prev iously I said: “It’s alway s possible that we could see nothing more

Stock Market Trends & Observations

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than 1-3 day corrections with a resumption of the rally . That’s really

great market action if it continues.” And that’s exactly what’s been

happening. The next possibility for a cy cle bottom is late February or

early March per the 1950 dataset.

The best possible outcome for the late January cy cle bottom is that it is

inv isible because the larger 18 month cy cle is exerting strong upward

influence and overriding the shorter term cy cles. Hopefully this is true

but we won’t know for sure until later.

The 1950 dataset shows:.

01 /2 9 /1 2 1 9 5 0 to pr esen t da ta set cy cles

WHAT ’S HAPPENING?

Although we have not made new recovery highs in most of the indexes

Categories

DAILY UPDATE (79)

EDSON GOULD (21)

GLOSSARY (1)

SELL/BUY ACTION UPDATE(15)

WEEKLY UPDATE (19)

WORDS OF WISDOM (9)

Recent Posts

Stock Market Update– 02/04/12

Elder Impulse System– 01/30/12




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(Industrials and Nasdaq Composite have a new closing high on Friday ),

we are in large step 3 dating from the March 2009 bottom. The first

chart shows the favored wave count. If we are in large step 3 up, we will

have new recovery highs before too long.

It’s a bit early to begin speaking about all-time highs but it does reside in

the back of my mind. Again this is favored because of my v iewpoint on

the long term megaphone formation (blue lines top chart). A massive

head and shoulders and megaphone formation have been forming since

2000. The head and shoulders is not believed to be v iable.

July 2011 (17)

June 2011 (10)

February 2012

M T W T F S S

« Jan

1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

13 14 15 16 17 18 19

20 21 22 23 24 25 26

27 28 29

Wall Street Quotes

“The essence of investmentmanagement is themanagement of risks, not themanagement of returns. Well-managed portfolios start withthis precept.”Benjamin Graham

The time of maximumpessimism is the best time tobuy and the time of maximumoptimism is the best time tosell.John Templeton

Buy on the cannons,sell on the trumpets.Old French Proverb

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The last large megaphone formation was 1965 to 197 4. I believe we are

doing the same as 1965-197 4 only the timeline is doubled. The

expectation is that we will finish the megaphone in 2018.

1 9 6 5 -1 9 7 4 MEGA PHONE

Since December 19th we have been in a single step upward. At worst, the

very short term count is step 3. At best, the count is the beginning of

step 2.

Rule #1: Never lose money.Rule #2: Never forget rule #1Warren Buffett

The four most dangerouswords in investing are"This time it's different".John Templeton

"This time it's different" wasprevalent during the bubbleof 2000. In 1929 it was called"New Economics".Bob

History always repeats, onlythe details change.Edson Gould

If you have trouble imagininga 20% loss in the stockmarket, you shouldn't be instocks.John (Jack) Bogle

Stock are bought onexpectations, not facts.Gerald Loeb

Emotions are your worstenemy in the stock market.Don Hays

P/E ratio - The percentage ofinvestors wetting their pantsas the market keepscrashing.

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It will be interesting to see what ty pe of resistance the prior highs of May

2011 will prov ide. Very little resistance could prompt a continuing run.

Stiff resistance would likely indicate the end of 2nd step since the late

November bottom. The Industrials and Nasdaq Composite had no

resistance and punched through easily on Friday ’s closing high. The

market continues to remain overbought but this is ty pical of a strong

bull run, overbought with a refusal to correct.

I remain in an “overall” uptrend theme as per prev ious updates.

2 01 2 -02 -04 IND DA ILY LONG TERM

Weekly candlestick charts since 2008 with Fibonacci speed lines.

crashing.Anonymous

Herd MentalityMen, it has been well said,think in herds; it will be seenthat they go mad in herds,while they only recover theirsenses slowly, and one byone.Extraordinary PopularDelusions and the Madness ofCrowds

Herd MentalityCases such as Tulipomania in1624--when Tulip bulbstraded at a higher price thangold--suggest the existenceof what I would dub"Mackay's Law of MassAction:" when it comes to theeffect of social behavior onthe intelligence of individuals,1+1 is often less than 2, andsometimes considerably lessthan 0.Extraordinary PopularDelusions and the Madness ofCrowds

I made money by selling toosoon.Bernard Baruch

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2 01 2 -02 -04 TSX WEEKLY

Bernard Baruch

If all you have is a hammer,everything looks like a nail.Bernard Baruch

The main purpose of thestock market is to make foolsof as many people aspossible.Bernard Baruch

The hardest part of a bullmarket is staying on.

A bubble is a bull market inwhich you don't have aposition.

A buy and hold strategy is ashort term trade that wentwrong.

October, this is one of thepeculiarly dangerous monthsto speculate in stocks. Theothers are July, January,September, April, November,May, June, December, Augustand February.Mark Twain

Economists have predicted 14of the last 3 recessions.

Market Correction - The dayafter you buy stocks.

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2 01 2 -02 -04 IND WEEKLY

after you buy stocks.

In 2008 stocks were a goodbuy . . . . . GoodbyeMercedes, goodbye yacht,goodbye vacation home,goodbye . . .

Markets can remain irrationallonger than you can remainsolvent.John Maynard Keynes

Money talks, but all mine eversays is "goodbye"

Don't gamble. Take all of yoursavings and buy some goodstock and hold it until it goesup, then sell it. If it don't goup, don't buy it.Will Rogers

Return of principal is moreimportant than the return onprincipal.

Hope is your worst enemy inthe market.

Don't catch a falling knife.

Spend at least as much timeresearching a stock as youwould choosing a refrigerator.Peter Lynch

When you realize that you

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When you realize that youare riding a dead horse thebest strategy is to dismount.Sioux Indian Proverb

Don’t ever make the mistakeof telling the market it iswrong.James Dines

Wall Street never changes,the pockets change, thesuckers change, the stockschange, but Wall Street neverchanges, because humannature never changes.Jesse Livermore

Let Wall Street have anightmare and the wholecountry has to help get themback in bed againWill Rogers

Bulls makes money, bearsmakes money, pigs getslaughtered.My Grandfather

Never buy a stock that won'tgo up in a bull market. Neversell a stock that won't godown in a bear market.

Wall Street is a street with ariver at one end and agraveyard at the other.





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2 01 2 -02 -04 COMP & V LE WEEKLY

Never check stock prices on aFriday, it could spoil yourweekend.

Nobody is more bearish thana sold-out bull.

The public is right during thetrends but wrong at both





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2 01 2 -02 -04 SPX WEEKLY

Daily candlestick charts since May 2009

trends but wrong at bothends.Humphrey Neill

Those who can, do.Those who can’t, teach.Those who can’t teach, workfor the government.

Never sell a dull market short.

“I sell euphoria and buypanic.”The way he determines thatis to wait until prices startgapping in the charts.Gapping on the upside iseuphoria, while gapping onthe downside is panic.Jimmy Rogers courtesy of JeffSaut

"Cut your losses and let yourprofits run."

Don't marry a stock. Everystock must be sold.

Often times WHEN you take aposition can be moreimportant than WHAT youtake a position in.

"If Santa fails to call thebears will roam on Broad andWall!"

About This Blog

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2 01 2 -02 -04 IND DA ILY

Observations of Stock MarketTrends uses severalproprietary technicalindicators discovered by theauthor. The object of this blogis to notify you (preferably inadvance) of the importanttops and bottoms in the stockmarket. We know that'simpossible, but nevertheless,it's attempted in this blog.

"Observations of StockMarket Trends" is publishedon an irregular schedule but adaily update is likely when weare near a stock marketinflection point.

If you find the bloginteresting, please become afollower by entering youremail address in the section"Email Subscription" (top ofthis column). You must alsoconfirm your emailsubscription by clicking on alink in the confirmation email,otherwise you ain'tsubscribed.

Disclosure

The content on this blog ismeant to be entertaining

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2 01 2 -02 -04 IND DA ILY

The Nasdaq composite on Friday also exceeded its May 2011 high.

There was no resistance, it gapped right through the old highs. It’s

almost alway s good market action to see the Nasdaq leading the

advance. When this index begins lagging we’ll know that a correction is

near.

The Value Line Index moved through its 2007 all-time highs in April

2010. Currently the index is drawing in on the May 2011 highs.

information and should not beconstrued as investmentadvice.

No statement by the blog'sauthor should be interpretedas a recommendation to buyor sell any security, financialinstrument, or to participatein a trading or investmentstrategy.

Any investment decision byanyone that results in lossesor gains based on informationfrom this blog is not theresponsibility of the blog'sauthor.

The blog's author will makestatements about certaininvestment vehicles andstrategies, but It's simply theauthor expressing hisopinion, or action, regardinghis own investments. Theseopinions are never to beconstrued as investmentadvice.

About Me

With 55 years of studying andinvesting in the stock market,I am sharing theseexperiences and knowledge

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2 01 2 -02 -04 COMP & V LE DA ILY

by writing a stock marketblog. This blog relies onseveral unique andproprietary indicators.

I have been correct at someof the biggest market turns inthe last 40 years. I was shortfor most of 1973-1974,reversed course and becamea buyer during the weekbefore Christmas 1974. I wasalso short for most of the firsthalf of 1982 but became abuyer on August 4, 1982. Thiswas five days before theAugust 9, 1982 blast off onthe historic bull market run ofthe 1980s and 1990s. In1999 I began tolling the bellon the stock market knowingthat the end was near (noone listened). In March 2003,prior to the beginning of theIraq war I became verybullish when it was obviousthat there was not one goodreason to own stocks(contrary opinion) and wehad also achieved a doublebottom. Shortly after the





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2 01 2 -02 -04 SPX DA ILY

Price limiting bands on daily charts since 2009

bottom. Shortly after theOctober 2007 peak I becamea seller and bear. Days priorto the March 2009 bottom, Ibought stocks in anticipationof a very good rally thatturned into a bull run. In thelater stages of the February-May 2011 topping process, Ibegan warning of animportant market correction.Since then my record is in thisblog.

To illustrate how things don'tgo perfectly for any analyst(such is life). My key indicatorbegan changing in characterduring 1987 and led to somelarge losses based onexcessive leverage,arrogance (I could do nowrong - or so I thought) andincorrect marketinterpretations. When I hadenough, I bailed out of themarket on October 6, 1987,just days before the 1987crash. But I had beenseverely damaged before thecrash. It took me severalyears to begin a recovery andrestore my faith in my keyindicator with a modifiedinterpretation. Since then,using the new method, the

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key indicator has workedcorrectly.

One man was responsible formy education, Edson Gould,the greatest technician thatever lived.

After reading many of thebooks on stock markettechnical analysis, I foundthat all of these methods hadhigh failure rates. I searchedfor a formula that workedconsistently and in 1973 Isubscribed to Edson Gould's"Findings & Forecasts". Here Istruck gold with the mastertechnician of the 20thcentury. Extending hismethods I discovered severalindicators that I use today.

If you find my observations ofinterest please add youremail address to the section,"Email Subscription".

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2012-02-04 INDEXES DAILY – LIMITING BANDS

60 minute charts since June 2011

2 01 2 -02 -04 TSX 6 0 MINUTE

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2 01 2 -02 -04 IND 6 0 MINUTE

2 01 2 -02 -04 COMP 6 0 MINUTE

Internal Indicators

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The next chart is the new highs and it is expanding as the market moves

up. Obviously this is good market action.

2 01 2 -02 -04 NET NEW HIGHS

The advance decline line (cumulative) is at an all-time high

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2 01 2 -02 -04 A DV A NCE DECLINE CUMULA TIV E

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The cumulative net volume line is not at a new high but it is showing a

strong uptrend.





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2 01 2 -02 -04 NET V OLUME CUMMULA TIV E

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The Dow Theory continues to have confirming recovery highs. The

Industrials exceeded the May 2011 closing high without a confirmation

from the Transportations. We’ll keep an ey e on a confirmation by the

Transports.

2 01 2 -02 -04 DOW THEORY

This is my super secret buy /sell indicator (Series #1) in red. The chart

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show the Industrials and series #1 since May 2010. The decline from

May to October 2011 was not reflected in the series #1 indicator. I

would interpret this as investors continuing to exert a continuous

buy ing influence on the market.

2 01 1 -02 -04 DJ IND & SERIES #1 INDICA TOR

2 01 1 -02 -04 DJ TRN & SERIES #1 INDICA TOR

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The following chart is the Tranportations average and the series #1

indicator since January 2007 . There was ample warning in this

indicator that the market was in trouble prior to the peak in October

2007 . The Transports made a subsequent high after Oct 2007 but the

series #1 indicator was far below its high early in 2007 .

2 01 1 -02 -04 TRN & SERIES #1 INDICA TOR

All of the above charts (except the series #1 charts) are available on my

chart link below.

CHART S

MY CHART LINK (updated constantly )

These are my personal charts and my play ground for doodling

trend lines, wave counts and other ideas.

I draw the trend lines and wave counts on a daily basis (sometimes

more often). Y ou can find these doodles from 1 minute to

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID4485509

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monthly charts.

I usually restrict my trend lines and wave counts to the first three

charts on each page, TSX, DJI & COMPQ. The other charts on the

page are usually for confirmation of the trend and wave structure.

Page 1 – Buy /Sell Signals & Misc Charts

Page 2 – Indexes With 1 Minute Bars





Page 7 – Indexes With Daily Bars

Page 8 – Indexes With Weekly Bars (since 1981)

Page 9 – Indexes With Monthly Bars (since 1981)

Page 10 – Indexes With 60 Minute Bars, Candlestick

Page 11 – Indexes With Daily Bars, Candlesticks

Page 12 – Indexes With Weekly Bars, Candlestick

Pages 13 through 14 are shorter term indicators. The indicators

are used to simply look for some ty pe of leading action before a

turn or confirm ing action of the wave count. Page 13 is a look-

every day indicator page. The other indicator pages are less

frequently v isited.

Page 15 – Hurst FLD Projections

Page 16 – Indicators, Long Term

Page 17 – International Indexes

Page 18 through 30 are sector ETFs. They represent most of the

active sector ETFs and are alway s a good hunting ground when

looking for something that is breaking in a new direction.

Page 31 through 46 are growth stocks with indicators. These are





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stocks that have been in a lengthy uptrend. One qualification is

that they must not be severely damaged in a bear market so they

can’t rise to significant new highs in the following bull market.

The growth stocks show daily market action for the last 1 .5 y ears

and weekly prices since 1992. This gives a good perspective of

how they have behaved in the immediate past (daily charts) and

how they behaved during good and bad times (weekly charts).

Page 46 – Last 6 charts are trades from the mechanical sell/buy

signals

WAVE COUNT S SIMPLIFIED

My wave counts are not Elliott Wave! It’s different, simple and

functions without a maze of exclusions.

T here are 3 peaks (or valley s) to a com pleted wave count.

A reversal of trend takes place after a completed wave count.

Often times it’s as simple as counting 3 bumps (or dips) on a chart .

. . Other times, not so easy .

In a downtrend the same rules apply except y ou are counting 3

dips instead of 3 bumps.

3 steps m ust stay confined to a channel. Lay ing a pen or

pencil on the chart will help y ou v isualize the channel.

As the larger trend progresses, all of the steps that make up the

trend will also be confined to a larger channel. Sometimes a

channel is not clear until the surge phase (vertical move) has

ended.

When the m arket breaks its channel (regardless of the

perceived wave count), the step has been term inated.

(Make sure y our channel was correctly drawn before calling a





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termination). Sometimes this may be y our best indicator that a

wave count is completed.

The correction following the second step is larger than the

correction that followed the first step, and obviously the

correction following third step is larger than the second step

correction.

A single wave m ay sub-divide into another 3 waves. I will

call this an extension. When this happens (1) the trend is still

intact, (2) the channel will widened and (3) instead of a total of

3 steps, there will be 5 steps.

Sometimes I will use the terms “step” and “wave” interchangeably .

Reading the glossary helps in the understanding of this blog.

There are many other important facts in the glossary .

Glossary Link

ABBREVIAT IONS

DJI = Dow Jones Industrials

DJT = Dow Jones Transportations

SPX = SP 500

ES = SP 500 Futures

COMPQ = Nasdaq Composite Index

TSX = Toronto Stock Exchange (Canadian blue chips)

SOX = Semiconductors

TXX = Technology

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Long T erm – UP

Uptrend

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Mar 2009 T o Present

Step 2 Up (of 3) Com pleted

Step 3 Up Has Likely Begun

From the bottom in March 2009

Large step one up ended in May 2010

Large step two up ended in May 2011

Large step three is underway

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1 2 -2 8 -1 1 LONG TERM

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Very Long T erm – DOWN

Downtrend

Jan 2000 T o Present

Step 2 Down (of 3) Com pleted

Currently In Rally Phase From Step 2 Down





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1 2 -2 8 -1 1 V ERY LONG TERM

VERY LONG T ERM COMMENT S

We have 3 possibilities for the future.

We have entered a very wide swinging m arket

(m egaphone form ation) sim ilar to that of 1965 to 197 4.

During that era we had three bear markets with two intervening






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bull market rallies. Each bear market had a lower low than the

prev ious bear. The intervening bull market rallies saw new all

time highs before the next bear market began.

We also have formed a huge head and shoulders formation since

1998. If this formation is valid, the downside measurement calls

for a bottom around Dow Jones Industrials 1 ,000.

We began a long term bull market in March 2009.

I favor the m egaphone form ation as the m ost likely

scenario.

Since 2000 we have had two bear markets, 2000 to 2003 and 2007 to

2009. Like 1966 to 197 4, the recovery from the first bear market saw a

new all time high (2007 peak). It’s possible that we may experience

another all time high during the present recovery period. This would

support the megaphone formation. A failure to make new highs would

support the head and shoulders argument. In both formations the

conclusion of the present recovery would call for a third and final bear

market. An estimated time for the conclusion of the final bear market is

approximately 2018.

The lesser downside target of both formations is the megaphone

formation as it likely calls for a bottom 1 ,000 to 2,000 points below the

2009 low, which would be around Dow 5,000.

In the head and shoulders formation the measurement calls for a bottom

around Dow Jones Industrials 1 ,000. This is almost an unimaginable

event regarding the possible fundamentals to create this scenario. If this

did happen, every thing that could go wrong would have to go wrong.

This scenario is so dark that it doesn’t seem possible but nevertheless,

the head and shoulders formation is there and will be waiting until we





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pierce the all-time highs of October 2007 .

Remember these are simply possible scenarios and are not embedded in

fact. Whatever the outcome, it never hurts to be a little cautious with

some of y our money . But in the worst case scenario, every thing that we

take for granted as being safe . . . . would not be safe. This is something

to never forget in the event things go very badly .

Hopefully we will never have to think about the worst case scenario.

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EDSON GOULD

Edson Gould, Prem ier Stock Market Strategist – Edson

Gould had a profound influence on the development of my

techniques and indicators. Prior to me subscribing to his

advisory serv ice, I was just one of the crowd.

After 40 y ears I still have many of the publications from his

advisory serv ice, “Findings & Forecasts”. Fearing the loss of these

hard copy reports I have recently scanned and created pdf files of

these reports. Now I have hard copies and computerized versions

of the reports.

My series #1 indicator was mentioned by Gould only once in his

market letters. If y ou didn’t catch its importance, too bad,

because he only gave y ou a peek. I believe that he used this tool

extensively and never told the world it’s importance. Prior to

Gould writing about this indicator I had been looking for one that

had similar characteristics without success. Thus when Gould

wrote about it, I recognized instantly that I had struck gold. I

have modified this indicator slightly and researched it back to





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1939 for the Industrials, Transportations and Utilities . This was a

lot of work as it was before computers and online data (remember

when Barrons was available only on paper, still is for the distant

past).

Edson Gould was truly a legend in his own time. It’s too bad that

today many people have forgotten or never heard of him or his

discoveries. Below y ou will find only the first page of these

reports. A teaser is what y ou might call it. The rest of the reports

are available upon request. This is a man that deserves to be

remembered throughout technical analy sis market history .

T he following are links to Edson Gould reports.

My Most Im portant Discovery by Edson Gould

It was also my most important discovery , for it explained the

irrational volatility of markets that had my stified me in my early

y ears. During those early y ears I found nothing worked in

predicting these irrational market swings. But the fog lifted after

reading this report and I began to understand how to begin

predicting the market. The book “Extraordinary Popular

Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” is very useful in explaining

crowd behavior.

Edson Gould Profile by MT A

Edson Gould Concepts by William Scheinm an

Decade Cy cle by Edson Gould

Decade Cy cle Update by Ned Davis

Swing Principle by Edson Gould

A measuring indicator

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http://stockmarketobservations.wordpress.com/2011/10/28/decade-cycle-update-by-ned-davis/

http://stockmarketobservations.wordpress.com/2011/10/28/decade-cycle-by-edson-gould/

http://stockmarketobservations.wordpress.com/2011/10/28/edson-gould-concepts-by-william-scheinman/

http://stockmarketobservations.wordpress.com/2011/10/28/edson-gould-profile-by-mta/

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Utilities by Edson Gould

A forecasting indicator

Dividends by Edson Gould

Bonds by Edson Gould

Speed Lines by Edson Gould

Sentim eter by Edson Gould

With companies failing to pay div idends commensurate with their

earnings, this indicator has failed. As the market deteriorate in

the coming y ears, I would expect div idends to return to their

former levels and this indicator will once again become useful.

Prior to the late 1990s, it had 100 y ears of success.

Bottom s by Edson Gould

This was written and directed at the upcoming bottom in 197 4 but

it applies to all major bottoms.

T hree Steps by Edson Gould

Where do y ou think my three steps principle came from? Straight

from this report although I modified the concept through the

y ears.

Edson Gould’s 197 4 Forecast

Gould’s 197 4 forecast kept me bearish and short throughout 197 4

until the week before Christmas 197 4, during which I began

making long term purchases. After that it was ride the bull phases

that transpired from 197 5 to 1982. 1982 to 2000 was the greatest

bull market of all time.




Edson Gould’s Five Year Forecast 197 7 to 1982

This was a remarkable forecast in 197 7 , where the Dow Industrials

http://stockmarketobservations.wordpress.com/2011/11/07/edson-goulds-five-year-forecast-1977-to-1982-may-1977/

http://stockmarketobservations.wordpress.com/2011/11/08/edson-goulds-1977-forecast-nov-1976/



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had never been higher than 1 ,000. NO ONE had predicted a rise of

this magnitude in 197 7 . Most were waiting for a resumption of the

bear market.

As part of the 197 7 to 1982 forecast I have the following story . On

Wednesday August 4, 1982 I went long the market for the first

time in months. By Friday , August 6 I was worried that I had

made a mistake as I was deep in the red (I was long the Kansas City

Stock Market Contracts). The Kansas City Stock Market Contract

was the first of the stock index contracts (February 1982). It was

based on the Value Line Arithmetic Index, margin requirement

were quite low, and it had a multiplier of 100 times the Value Line

Arithmetic Index, which meant the leverage was very high. On

Friday (Aug 6), my wife and I went to dinner and I told her my tale

of woe and asked her whether I should sell my long positions. I

explained that my series #1 indicator had reversed and continued

higher on Thursday and Friday but the market had continued

lower. Since the key indicator was usually correct, we decided to

stick it out awhile longer (I was crazy in those day s). On Monday

August 9, 1982 the market took off like a rocket and never looked

back. The ignition for the 1982 to 2000 bull market was

underway . I sky rocketed out of the red and had a big profit. In

August 1982 the only people that were bullish were Edson Gould,

Robert Prechter and my self (probably a couple of others but I

didn’t know them). Every one else was extremely bearish. It was a

perfect example of extreme crowd behavior.

Sign Of T he Bull by Edson Gould

************************************************************************************

T RANSACT ION SIGNALS

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All actionable signals are only for short term time frames. These

signals are not designed for intermediate or long term time frames

BUT . . . . .

After a short term buy signal, long term tax status can be

achieved by a continuation of the upward trend, which causes

short term actions to morph into long term holdings.

See more details in the glossary under “Taxes, Futures Contracts”

and “Money Management”.

Glossary Link

T RANSACT ION RECORD

In this blog a warning of an impending bottom (or top) is often

issued well in advance of the formal buy or sell date. This allows

thoughtful consideration prior to a formal action signal. To get a

sense of how this works, y ou should read the day s prior to a

formal buy /sell signal. I often buy /sell in my personal account

based on the early warnings.

The transaction record near stock market bottoms will show that I

am very skittish and usually remain so until the new direction is

well underway .

Qualified buy signal given from Decem ber 5th to

Decem ber 20th, 2011

Buy signal in October 2011 was never issued due to a

SERIOUS fam ily illness

SELL – SEPT EMBER 9, 2011

BUY – AUGUST 30, 2011

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SELL – AUGUST 30, 2011 – Stopped out, re-bought quickly


SELL – AUGUST 25, 2011



BUY – JUNE 23, 2011

************************************************************************************

MISCELLANEOUS

There are useful items throughout this blog. For instance, the

“Wall Street Quotes” can be very instructive. So make sure and

look all through the blog.

Comments: Be the first to comment

Elder Impulse System – 01/30/12Pos ted January 30, 2012 by Bob

Categories: WO RDS O F WISDO M

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************************************************************************************

ELDER IMPULSE SYST EM

On MY CHART LINK I have begun using the Elder Impulse Sy stem on

the D.J. Industrials on pages 2-9. This is an interesting momentum based

sy stem. The following excerpt was taken from “COME INTO MY

TRADING ROOM, A Complete Guide to Trading” by Dr. Alexander Elder.

Y ou can find this book at Am azon.com and it has great tidbits of info.

Begin Quote:

Entries

I designed this sy stem to identify the inflection points where a trend

speeds up or slows down. The Impulse Sy stem works in any timeframe,

including intraday . It prov ides buy and sell signals, but leaves it up to

y ou to select good markets, tweak parameters, and supply the discipline.

Choose an active market whose prices swing in a broad channel. What

happens if y ou make a C trade and grab only 10% of a channel width? This

result is not too bad if the channel is 20 points wide, but a C trade is an

exercise in futility if the channel is only 5 points wide. Chase fat rabbits,

don’t waste y our time on skinny ones.

The Impulse Sy stem combines two simple but powerful indicators. One

measures market inertia, the other its momentum. When both point in

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the same direction, they identify an impulse worth following. We get an

entry signal when both indicators get in gear, but as soon as they stop

confirming one another, we take that as an exit signal.

The Impulse Sy stem uses an exponential moving average to find

uptrends and downtrends. When the EMA rises, it shows that inertia

favors the bulls. When EMA falls, inertia works for the bears. The sec-

ond component is MACD-Histogram, an oscillator whose slope reflects

changes of power among bulls or bears. When MACD-Histogram rises, it

shows that bulls are becoming stronger. When it falls, it shows that bears

are growing stronger.

The Impulse Sy stem flags those bars where both the inertia and the

momentum point in the same direction. When both the EMA and MACD-

Histogram rise, they show that bulls are roaring and the uptrend is

accelerating. When both indicators fall together, they show that bears

are crushing the market. Those indicators may stay in gear with each

other for only a few bars, but that’s when the market travels fast—the

impulse is on!

Before y ou rush to apply the Impulse Sy stem to y our favorite market,

remember how Triple Screen analy zes markets in more than one

timeframe. Select y our favorite timeframe and call it intermediate.

Multiply it by five to define y our long-term timeframe. If y our favorite

chart is daily , analy ze the weekly chart to make a strategic decision to be

a bull or a bear. Use a 26-week EMA, the slope of weekly MACD-

Histogram, or both, on the weekly chart.

Once y ou’ve defined the long-term trend, return to y our daily chart and

look for trades only in the direction of the weekly . The Impulse Sy stem

uses a 13-day EMA and a 12-26-9 MACD-Histogram. The EMA, tracking

market inertia, is a little shorter than our usual 22 bars, making the





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sy stem more sensitive.

When the weekly trend is up, turn to the daily charts and wait for both

the 13-day EMA and MACD-Histogram to turn up. When both inertia and

momentum rise, y ou have a strong buy signal, telling y ou to get long and

stay long until the buy signal disappears.

When the weekly trend is down, turn to the daily charts and wait for both

the 13-day EMA and MACD-Histogram to turn down. They give y ou a

signal to go short, but be ready to cover when that signal disappears.

Some technical programs allow y ou to mark price bars with different

colors. Make them green when both the EMA and MACD-Histogram rise,

and red when both indicators fall. Don’t mark the bars where the

indicators point in the opposite directions. This lets y ou easily see

signals at a glance.

Exits

When a cowboy at a rodeo hops on the back of a wild bronco, how long

does he ride it? Twenty seconds, 35 may be, 50 if he is good and lucky .

Wild momentum trades don’t last long either. Try to hop off while y ou’re

still in the money .

The time to buy into a momentum trade is when all y our ducks are in a

row, that is, when the weekly trend is up and the daily EMA and MACD-

Histogram are rising. Hop off as soon as a single indicator turns down.

Usually , daily MACD-Histogram turns first as the upside momentum

starts weakening. When the buy signal disappears, sell without waiting

for a sell signal.

Reverse the procedure in downtrends. A momentum trade on the short

side starts when the weekly trend turns down and the daily EMA and





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side starts when the weekly trend turns down and the daily EMA and

MACD-Histogram also fall, showing that the downward momentum is

accelerating. Cover shorts as soon as one of those indicators stops giv ing

a sell signal. The most dy namic part of the decline is over, and y our

momentum trade has fulfilled its goal.

The Impulse Sy stem encourages y ou to enter cautiously but exit fast.

This is the professional approach to trading, the total opposite of the

amateurs’ sty le. Beginners jump into trades without thinking too much

and take forever to get out, hoping and waiting for the market to turn

their way .

Y ou must be very disciplined to trade this sy stem because it is hard to

place an order when the market is already fly ing, but even harder to quit

while y ou’re ahead without waiting for a reversal. Y ou are not allowed to

kick y ourself if the trend continues after y ou get out. Do not touch this

sy stem if y ou have the slightest problem with discipline.

End Quote:

CHART S






monthly charts.









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signals















ended.












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correction.








Glossary Link

ABBREVIAT IONS



SPX = SP 500

ES = SP 500 Futures




TXX = Technology

************************************************************************************

Long T erm – UP

Uptrend



Step 3 Up Has Possibly Begun







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Large step two up ended in May 2011 .

Significant break above the May 2011 highs should signal that Step

3 up is official






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1 2 -2 8 -1 1 LONG TERM

************************************************************************************


Downtrend








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We began a long term bull market in March 2009. Each

subsequent min-bear market will result in higher lows than the

prior major low.


scenario.









approximately 2018.












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The reasons range from the absurd to the absurdly absurd. This scenario

is so dark that it doesn’t seem possible but nevertheless, the head and

shoulders formation is there and will be waiting until we pierce the all-

time highs of October 2007 .






Hopefully we will never have to think about worst case scenarios other

than to have a good laugh at them presently .

************************************************************************************

EDSON GOULD









of the reports.

I have used a technique of his that I found in an obscure reference

in one of his reports. It was only mentioned once and never

again. I believe that he used this tool extensively and never told

the world it’s importance. Prior to my finding this tool, I had been





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try ing unsuccessfully to find a different way to chart the market.

When I read about his technique I knew instantly that this was

exactly what I had been seeking. I have charted this method back

to 1939 and found it to be very useful. There is no mention of it in

the reports that I posted below as I have deleted any reference to

it. It’s a super secret indicator and I’d have to kill y ou if I told y ou

about it.


today most people have forgotten or never heard of him or his












predicting the market.
















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earnings, this indicator has failed. As the market climate

continues to deteriorate in the coming y ears, I would expect

div idends to return to their former levels and this indicator will

once again become useful. Prior to the late 1990s, it had 100

y ears of success.







y ears.

























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had never been higher than 1 ,000. NO ONE predicted a rise of this

magnitude in 197 7 . Most were waiting for a resumption of the

bear market.

As part of the 197 7 to 1982 forecast: On Wednesday August 4,

1982 I went long the market for the first time in months. By

Friday , August 6 I was worried that I had made a mistake as I was

deep in the red (I was long the Kansas City Stock Market

Contracts). The Kansas City Stock Market Contract was the first of

the stock index contracts (February 1982). It was based on the

Value Line Arithmetic Index, margin requirement were quite low,

and it had a multiplier of 100 times the Value Line Arithmetic

Index, which meant the leverage was very high. On Friday (Aug

6), my wife and I went to dinner and I told her my tale of woe and

whether I should sell my long positions. I explained that my key

indicator had reversed and continued higher on Thursday and

Friday but the market had continued lower. Since the key

indicator was usually correct, we decided to stick it out for a few

day s more (I was crazy in those day s). My key indicator was

mentioned by Gould only once in his market letters. If y ou didn’t

catch its importance, too bad, because he only gave y ou a peek.

Prior to Gould writing about this indicator I had been looking for

one that had similar characteristics without success. Thus when

Gould wrote about it, I recognized instantly that I had struck

gold. I have modified this indicator slightly and researched it

back to 1939. This was a lot of work as it was before computers

and online data (remember when Barrons was available only on

paper, still is for the distant past). Meanwhile on Monday August

9, 1982 the market took off like a rocket and never looked back. I






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sky rocketed out of the red and had a big profit. In August 1982

the only people that were bullish were Edson Gould, Robert

Prechter and my self (probably a couple of others but I didn’t know

them). Every one else was extremely bearish. It was a perfect

example of crowd behavior.


************************************************************************************




BUT . . . . .






Glossary Link





sense of how this works, y ou should read a few day s prior to a









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Share this:




well underway .












BUY – JUNE 23, 2011

************************************************************************************

MISCELLANEOUS






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Stock Market Update – 01/29/12Pos ted January 29, 2012 by Bob



************************************************************************************

WHOOPS

My last update had nothing new included, just the normal every day stuff

that is alway s included. I was preparing for today ’s post and tagged the

wrong button. Sorry about that.

Every time I put a new file (pdf) in my blog an update goes out

automatically . That’s not intentional just the way wordpress does

things. So I apologize in advance if I upload 5 files in one day and 5

updates go out.

CYCLES

I haven’t posted the charts for the cy cles since 1/18 and today I’ll show

y ou what’s happening.









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Two of the three charts show that we should be bottoming presently .

That’s still possible with a quick deep correction and next week should

tell us if that’s going to happen. Whether the correction is inv isible (very

good sign) or it will occur in February remains to be seen.

If the correction is practically inv isible, it will indicate that a larger cy cle

has dominance (good sign). The 1950 dataset shows a February bottom

but that factors 60 y ears of data and doesn’t put emphasis on recent

cy cles like the dataset 1998 and 2007 .

The next cy cle of real significance is indicated for March (1950 dataset)

or May (1998 and 2007 dataset). The 1950 dataset shows an 18 month

cy cle bottom in March, while the 1998 and 2007 dataset show that the

18 month cy cle bottomed last October. If we have a significant

correction into February that takes us into the area of the October lows,

it will likely indicate that the 1950 dataset is correct. That isn’t my

favorite outlook but I don’t get to choose what the market does (nuts).

The market is very overbought and a correction of some ty pe should

take place to replenish the market’s firepower. It’s alway s possible that

we could see nothing more than 1-3 day corrections with a resumption of

the rally . That’s really great market action if it continues.

The following charts are the datasets 1950, 1998 and 2007 , in that

order.





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01 /2 9 /1 2 1 9 5 0 to pr esen t da ta set cy cles

http://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/01-29-12-1998-to-present-cycle-2.jpg

http://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/01-29-12-1950-to-present-cycles-2.jpg





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01 /2 9 /1 2 1 9 9 8 to pr esen t da ta set cy cle

01 /2 9 /1 2 2 007 to pr esen t da ta set cy cle

MISC

Jeffrey Saut mentioned Linn Energy (LINE) on his Thursday update. I

hadn’t looked at it before but it pay s a 7 .5% div idend, has an excellent

growth record and is constantly making acquisitions. Jeffrey said this is

the stock he recommends to friends and family to put away for a few

y ears. Of course if oil prices don’t rise, LINE wouldn’t do well. Presently

the oil price chart shows that oil is in an inverse head and shoulders

formation (see my charts page 13, #7 1.6). This hasn’t been confirmed by

a neckline breakout but the projected rise is to approximately $113 per

barrel. This isn’t a recommendation because I don’t do that, just take a

look. My normal field of play is the stock index futures where I’m very

http://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/01-29-12-2007-to-present-cycle-2.jpg





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careful to NOT become over-leveraged (been there, done that).

CONFIDENCE INDEX

The following is the confidence index (junk bonds div ided by treasury

bonds). Although the index is rising, the curious and bothersome part

about this chart is the index has not risen above it’s October high.

Another problem is that various market indexes are approaching their

May 2011 highs and the confidence index is far away from it’s 2011 high.

When the market expects a recovery , junk bonds will rise much faster

than treasury bonds. That is barely happening at the present. The lower

part of this chart is the Value Line Arithmetic Index. Did y ou realize that

this index hit an all-time in March 2010 and kept right on rolling. It’s

present all-time high was May 2011.





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01 /2 9 /1 2 Con fiden ce In dex

ECONOMY

The following chart gives indication for the economy in real-time. The

last chart is the Baltic Dry Index, which is the cost of ocean shipping.

When the economy is rolling in high gear, this index will be at high levels

and the reverse is also true. Presently , this index is very near the lows

made in December 2008. Y ou can draw y our own conclusions on that

http://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/01-29-12-confidence-index.jpg





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one.

01 /2 9 /1 2 Econ om y

http://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/01-29-12-economy.jpg





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Another chart real-time chart for the economy is the Aruoba-Diebold-

Scotti Business Conditions Index, which is kept by the FED. It shows

conditions rising slightly . The past record of this index has been pretty

good.

01 /2 9 /1 2 A r u oba Diebold Scott i Bu sin ess Con dit ion s In dex

Although I’ve had some negative things in this post, I remain in an

“overall” uptrend theme as per prev ious updates. This is based on my

wave counting techniques and we should keep in mind that the market

http://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/01-29-12-aruoba-diebold-scotti-business-conditions-index.jpg





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alway s climbs the “wall of worry ”.

CHART S






monthly charts.
























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signals














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ended.









correction.








Glossary Link

ABBREVIAT IONS



SPX = SP 500

ES = SP 500 Futures






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TXX = Technology

************************************************************************************

Long T erm – UP

Uptrend








3 up is official






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1 2 -2 8 -1 1 LONG TERM

************************************************************************************


Downtrend








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prior major low.


scenario.









approximately 2018.












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************************************************************************************

EDSON GOULD









of the reports.









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about it.






























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y ears of success.







y ears.

























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bear market.































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************************************************************************************




BUT . . . . .






Glossary Link














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Share this:




well underway .












BUY – JUNE 23, 2011

************************************************************************************

MISCELLANEOUS






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************************************************************************************

CHART S






monthly charts.















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signals















ended.









correction.







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Glossary Link

ABBREVIAT IONS



SPX = SP 500

ES = SP 500 Futures




TXX = Technology

************************************************************************************

Long T erm – UP

Uptrend








3 up is official






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3 up is official






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1 2 -2 8 -1 1 LONG TERM

************************************************************************************


Downtrend








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prior major low.


scenario.









approximately 2018.












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************************************************************************************

EDSON GOULD









of the reports.









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about it.






























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y ears of success.







y ears.

























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bear market.































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************************************************************************************




BUT . . . . .






Glossary Link














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Share this:




well underway .












BUY – JUNE 23, 2011

************************************************************************************

MISCELLANEOUS





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JEFFREY SAUT

Back in the 7 0s and 80s, one of my favorite analy sts was Robert Farrell

of Merrill Ly nch. He was very , very good and widely followed. He is

quoted by Jeffrey Saut in his Monday missive, which immediately

follows.

Everybody’s Unhappy!?January 23, 2012

“Money managers are unhappy because 70% of them are

lagging the S&P 500. Economists are unhappy because

they do not know what to believe: this month’s forecast of

a strong economy or last month’s forecast of a weak

economy. Technicians are unhappy because the market

refuses to correct and gets more and more extended.

Foreigners are unhappy because due to their








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underinvested status in the U.S. they have missed a big

double play: a big currency move plus a big stock market

move. The public is unhappy because they just plain

missed out on the party after being scared into cash. It

almost seems ungrateful for so many to be unhappy about

a market that has done so well. Unhappy people would

prefer the market to correct to allow them to buy and feel

happy, which is just the reason for a further rise?

Frustrating the majority is the market’s primary goal.”

… Bob Farrell, Merrill Lynch; September 1989

The bears are unhappy since the Santa rally , which began last

Thanksgiv ing, has given the short-sellers no comfortable place to cover

their shorts. Last week the bears suffered even more angst as most of the

indices I follow tagged new reaction highs. The upside skein from the

December 19th “low” has left the senior index better by ~8.1%, and up an

ey e-popping 13.3% since Thanksgiv ing. Counting the trading day s from

that mid-December “low” shows the rally has now encompassed 21

sessions with no more than a 1 – 3 session pause and/or correction. That

makes this a fairly long of tooth “buy ing stampede.” Recall, buy ing-

stampedes ty pically last 17 – 25 sessions, with only 1-3 session

pauses/corrections along the way , before they exhaust themselves on

the upside. It just seems to be the rhy thm of the “thing” in that it takes

that long to get participants bullish enough to throw in the towel and

“buy ‘em” right before the markets peak and have a downside correction.

Moreover, during the current stampede just about every thing has been

“run,” including all the sectors punctuated by the Banks +11 .6%

performance Y TD. Accordingly , the only thing missing for a short-term





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“top” is a final burst to the upside driven by short-covering. My sense is

this will occur into tomorrow night’s State of the Union address, which

should be followed by a post address letdown for the stock market.

To be sure, the recent rally has not been accompanied by a noticeable

increase in Buy ing Demand as measured by Lowry ’s Buy ing Power Index.

Rather the rally has occurred more from a reduction in Selling, which is

reflected in Lowry ’s Selling Pressure Index. Then too, the percentage of

stocks above their respective 10-day moving averages (DMAs) has failed

to confirm the upside and the New High list is not expanding. In fact,

40% of my short-term indicators are now bearish and none are bullish.

Meanwhile, the NY SE McClellan Oscillator is overbought, the stock

market does not have much internal energy left for a big rally , the S&P

500 (SPX/1315.38) is three standard dev iations above its 20-DMA, the

Volatility Index (VIX/18.28) is telegraphing too much complacency ,

and we have negative seasonality for the next few weeks. Nevertheless, I

continue to think it is a mistake to get too bearish because I believe any

pullback in the various indices will be contained.

My bullishness was reinforced last week during a conversation with

Frederick “Shad” Rowe, the sagacious general partner of Dallas-based

Greenbrier Partners. Summing the conversation, we decided the world is

becoming richer faster than debt is expanding. This is not an

unimportant point since every one seems to be focusing on the “debt

bomb,” which likely means it is the wrong question. Clearly , some folks

are liv ing above their means, some below, but many are liv ing within

their means, which can be seen in the Household Debt Serv ice Ratio

chart that is plumbing generational lows. Manifestly , the world is getting

more prosperous and is producing more for less driven by technology .

Truly , it is “one world” and we should start thinking of the U.S. as a state





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within that “one world.” This v iew is plainly stated in Federal Express’

annual report. To wit:

“We’ve reached a tipping point in how the world works. T he largest

econom y in the world is no longer the econom y of any one

country – it’s the econom y of global trade of goods and

services. Value: $18.3 trillion in 2010. At FedEx, our job is to facilitate

these transactions, the heart of commerce, by prov iding access –

moving goods across the global supply chain.”

Or, how about this from Google’s annual report:

“Google is a global technology leader focused on improving the way s

people connect with information. We aspire to build products that

improve the lives of billions of people globally . Our Mission is to

organize the world’s inform ation and m ake it universally

accessible and useful.”

One world indeed and there are actually a lot of good things happening.

While the world is still a v iolent place, it is becoming less so as the wars

we have been fighting come to an end. Additionally , the U.S. finally

appears to be heading down the road of energy self-sufficiency , which

should increase employ ment, and the U.S. dollar is currently the least

unattractive currency in the world. Furthermore, as scribed in prev ious

reports, there is a huge hidden lay er of the U.S. economy that is

becoming the engine of growth and wealth creation; and, this hidden

lay er is misrepresented in corporate financial reports. Surprisingly , the

equity markets appear to value this hidden lay er at approximately zero

suggesting huge opportunity for investors to profit. The hidden lay er

referenced is Organizational Capital and Knowledge Capital, both of

which reside under the macro moniker – Intangible Capital – so often





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mentioned in these missives. As the astute GaveKal organization writes:

“When we account for intangibles the picture of the U.S.

economy changes. It is revealed that we are saving more

and investing more than we thought. This means our

economy is much more dynamic than we thought. This

result is relevant in view of the perception of a low rate of

saving in the U.S. economy, particularly because existing

measures exclude much of the investment in knowledge

capital that is a defining feature of the modern U.S.

economy. … Validating intangibles is the key to

eliminating the guesswork in valuing a company

correctly. Indeed, this ‘new view’ of intangibles suggests

they are the missing link between financial accounting

and financial valuation.”

These observations, taken in concert amid the backdrop of a world that

is profoundly underinvested in U.S. equities, continues to leave me

walking on the “sunny side” of Wall Street even though in the very short

term I am looking for a trading peak.

T he call for this week: Last Thanksgiv ing I suggested the Santa rally

was beginning. I stuck with that “call” into the new y ear. On January 3,

2012 I stated that session felt like an “emotional peak” and that January

10, 2012 felt like the “price peak.” Subsequently I wrote, “The only

question in my mind is if the markets are going to have a pullback into

the 1230 – 1240 support zone, or go sideway s to correct their

overbought condition and allow the internal energy to be rebuilt.” So far,

it has been a sideway s consolidation until last week’s upside breakout





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causing one old Wall Street wag to exclaim, “Breakout or fake-out?!” On a

short-term basis I think it is a fake-out believ ing a trading top is due this

week .


January 23rd shows signs that a top of some ty pe was made. We’ll wait

and see if that top holds and the January correction is underway .

As we continue to draw nearer to the May 2011 highs, it appears possible

that we have entered large step 3 up.



Large step two up ended in May 2011.

If we penetrate the May 2011 highs by a significant amount, we can

safely say that large step 3 is underway . Whether we make new all-time

highs is only a gleam in my ey e. All-time highs are not a requirement for

the megaphone formation (see very long term comment below) but it

seems likely that we would get into the area of prior highs. With today ’s

economic problems that would certainly require the market to climb the

“wall of worry ” and that’s the way it’s alway s done.

No cy cles have been posted in this update because nothing has changed.

If we continue through January without a correction of consequence, it

makes one wonder if the large data-set from 1950 might have the correct

bottom, which was indicated in February (see update dated 01/18/11).


T HE UPDAT E SCHEDULE, ET CET ERA





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At dinner the other night with a good friend, he pointed out to me that I

don’t have much to say in my blog. That’s very true and it’s something

that I had noticed already .

When I began this blog in July it was obvious that the market was in

trouble. Markets in decline propel me into a hy per mode and I have a lot

to say . During the summer I was constantly looking for signs of a market

bottom and pointing out possibilities. After we bottomed on October 4,

2011 and again in November and December, I have been more relaxed

and content to let the market trend higher. This mode will continue in

my blogs until I become worried that an inflection point is near or

passed. I expect at that time I will have a lot to say again. Until then

Alfred E. Newman and I are:





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A lfr ed E. New m a n

But as alway s I’m alert to unexpected market changes.

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CHART S







http://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/alfred-e-newman.jpg





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monthly charts.

Y ou will find the best trend lines and wave counts on charts with

longer time frames. This gives perspective to the lines and

counts. Perspective was a favorite of Edson Gould.




Page 1 – Buy /Sell Signals

























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The growth stocks show daily market action for the last 3 y ears




Page 46 – Misc older charts










Each group of 3 steps m ust stay confined to a channel.

Lay ing a pen or pencil on the chart will help y ou v isualize the

channel.

As the trend progresses, all of the steps that make up a larger

trend will also be confined to a larger channel. Sometimes the

channel is not revealed until the surge phase has ended.

When the m arket breaks a channel (regardless of the





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perceived wave count), the current step has been

term inated. (Make sure y our channel was correctly drawn

before calling a termination).


correction that followed the first step. Obviously the correction

following the third step is a reversal.








Glossary Link

ABBREVIAT IONS



SPX = SP 500

ES = SP 500 Futures




TXX = Technology

************************************************************************************

Long T erm – UP

Uptrend






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3 up is official






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1 2 -2 8 -1 1 LONG TERM

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Downtrend








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prior major low.


scenario.









approximately 2018.












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************************************************************************************

EDSON GOULD









of the reports.









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about it.






























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y ears of success.







y ears.

























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bear market.































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BUT . . . . .






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Share this:




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The market is overbought and ripe for a correction . . . BUT when

markets are overbought and don’t correct for more than 1-3 day s, that’s

a sign of an extended move upward.

In the 60 minute chart below y ou can see since Dec 20th, the market has

had very shallow corrections and nothing bey ond 3 day s. This is a

rather narrow channel and probably won’t hold up through time. If the

channel widens with a deeper correction that doesn’t exceed 3 day s

followed by a renewal of the rally , that will be a very good sign for an

extended rally .

As we draw nearer to the May 2011 highs, it certainly appears possible

that we have entered large step 3 up.










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Large step two up ended in May 2011.

If we exceed the May 2011 highs, how the market accomplishes this will

be interesting. Will we have a (1) meaningful correction at the May

peaks, (2) vacillate in the area of the May peaks, or (3) thrust through the

May highs with force. A thrust that continues without a correction

exceeding 3 day s would be very nice.

Looking at the timing of the prev ious peaks, does that mean the end of

large step 3 will be in May 2012 or possibly May 2013. The stock market

tries to alway s fool y ou so I wouldn’t put much faith in this but I will

certainly be watchful around these dates.

There is a LOT of money on the sidelines and if this money decided to

move back into stocks, a melt-up could take place. This could occur

when investors realize that interest rates are moving up (bond prices

falling). This will force investors to sell bonds and buy stocks. Higher

interest rates are not a problem unless the economy begins to overheat.

That isn’t a problem presently .

I’m unsure how a melt-up would fit into the Presidential race but the

stock market usually figures out the winner before or during the summer

months.

As I have proposed since this bull market began in 2009, we had a

possibility of exceeding the 2007 all-time highs. This fits perfectly with

my very long term megaphone formation beginning in 2000. See “VERY

LONG TERM COMMENTS” far down in this update.





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01 /2 1 /1 2 - 6 0 Min u te SPX - 5 Da y EMA Bu y /Sell Sig n a l

No cy cles have been posted in this update because nothing has changed.

If we continue through January without a correction of consequence, it

makes one wonder if the large data-set from 1950 might have the correct

bottom, which was indicated in February (see update dated 01/18/11).

It’s also possible that we will soon have a v igorous 3 day correction

followed by more rally . This 3 day correction could be all that we will

get from the January bottoming cy cle. If true, this is a good indication of

a market that wants to move higher and should be bought.


MECHANICAL BUY/SELL SIGNALS

The following paragraphs are a curiosity and not recommended, but I do

http://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/012112-60-minute-spx-5-day-ema-buy_sell-signal.jpg





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find this mechanical trading sy stem interesting. With this sy stem y ou

aren’t allowed to stray away from the trend. The chart is from MY

CHART S, page 1 , number 10.4

This is a quote from Robert Colby ’s book, “T he Ency clopedia Of

T echnical Market Indicators, Second Edition” and taken from my

notes on chart number 10.4

EMA is an abbrev iation for exponential moving average

“This is the best simple trend-following indicator we tested against

daily DJIA data. Substituting 5-days for 120-days in the same formula

(above), and starting with $100 and reinvesting profits, total net

profits for this 5-day EMA Crossover Strategy would have been $16

billion, assuming a fully invested strategy, reinvestment of profits, no

transactions costs and no taxes. This would have been 78 million

percent better than buy-and-hold. Short selling would have been

profitable.” .

In the chart above I have modified the 5 day into a 35 hour EMA. This

was due to volatility issues (gaps) that occur in today ’s markets. Trading

the SP futures (nearly 24 hours/day ) can minimize gaps but not

completely (who want’s to trade 24 hours per day ). To avoid sleepless

nights, there are trading algorithms available with some brokerages that

can execute this trade automatically .

This sy stem simply states that when the market is above the 35 hour

EMA, the market is a buy , below it is a sell.

When the trend is obv ious and y ou decide to stay with the trend (trend is

y our friend, blah blah blah), y ou may have to ignore ‘small’ penetrations

of the 35 hour EMA otherwise y ou must trade all of the penetrations.

http://www.amazon.com/Encyclopedia-Technical-Market-Indicators-Second/dp/0070120579/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1327251744&sr=8-1






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The above chart has many good illustrations of this problem since Dec

20th. The trend is up but it has several small penetrations of the 35 hour

EMA. Following this sy stem means a lot of trades on ‘small corrections’.

But since online brokerage fees are so low, cost is not a matter of

consequence. If y ou decide to live with small penetrations, y ou MUST

establish a maximum percentage penetration in order to not be caught in

a trend reversal. This is important because the entire purpose of this

indicator is for y ou to remain on the correct side of the 5 day trend.

We all know that y ou can encounter a lot of whipsaws in a non-trending

market. This is where the ADX lines can be helpful (see above chart). An

ADX signal occurs: (1) When the black line is above or below the

red/green horizontal lines coupled with an extreme in the green +DI or

red -DI lines; (2) When the green +DI or red -DI lines approach or cross

the red or green extreme lines, y ou ‘may ’ have a signal. (approach of

similar color lines is bullish, red on red, green on green; approach of

dissimilar color lines is bearish, red on green, green on red; (3) In both 1

and 2 y ou must wait for the reversal in +DI or -DI lines to verify the new

trend.

************************************************************************************

CHART S






monthly charts.






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channel.










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Glossary Link

ABBREVIAT IONS



SPX = SP 500

ES = SP 500 Futures




TXX = Technology

************************************************************************************

Long T erm – UP

Uptrend







http://pdfcrowd.com








3 up is official






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1 2 -2 8 -1 1 LONG TERM

************************************************************************************


Downtrend








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prior major low.


scenario.









approximately 2018.












http://pdfcrowd.com













************************************************************************************

EDSON GOULD









of the reports.









http://pdfcrowd.com








about it.






























http://pdfcrowd.com














y ears of success.







y ears.

























http://pdfcrowd.com






bear market.































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************************************************************************************




BUT . . . . .






Glossary Link














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Share this:




well underway .












BUY – JUNE 23, 2011

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MISCELLANEOUS






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For the moment I’m kinda in a “quiet” period and remain in an “overall”

uptrend theme. When I get excited about an important change in market

direction, a lot of blog updates usually take place. Presently , there are

some divergences showing in the 60 minute and daily charts. Also the

wave count appears to be maturing. All of this could be early warning

signs of a correction into late January (see cy cles update in the next

section). The expectation is the correction will be a point to add to

holdings or resume speculative positions.

The following is the 60 minute indexes found on page 10 of my charts.

Notice some of the indicators have divergences where prices are

trending higher and the indicators are making lower highs.

http://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/011812-indexes-60-minutes1.jpg








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01 /1 8 /1 2 - INDEXES - 6 0 MINUTES

CYCLES

I have alway s found the Hurst Cy cle concept to be interesting and I’ll try

to make this an integral part of my blog updates.

Y ou’ll notice how the dates of the anticipated cy cle lows don’t change

much from one month to the next (compare my last blog’s cy cle charts

with today ’s). Only a sharp move up or down changes the cy cle

expectations.

The first chart is the SP 500 cy cles from 1950 to 2042. The semi-circle

contact points at the bottom are cy cle low dates. When we have

numerous cy cles bottoming at the same time or large cy cles bottoming,

these are usually important dates in stock market history . Due to the

size of this chart, only the large cy cles are v isible. Obviously cy cle lows

shown bey ond the present are predictions and not y et reality .

Some cy cle lows don’t produce bottoms. In a strongly upward trending

market, a cy cle low can be a sideway s pattern followed by a breakout to

the upside. Looking at the chart below y ou can see how several large

cy cle are approaching a crest and beginning a move to their cy cle low.

This is not a strongly upward trending market as portray ed by this

chart. At best it shows the last stage of a bull market, which coincides

with a large 3rd step in the wave count.

Click On Charts T o Enlarge





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01 /1 8 /1 2 - 1 9 5 0 Da ta - 1 9 5 0 To 2 04 2

According to Hurst’s Principle of Proportionality – Waves in price

movement have an amplitude that is proportional to their wavelength.

This simply means that longer cy cles produce bigger moves up or down.

Smaller cy cles produce smaller fluctuations.

The next chart is a close up of the above chart and it shows a confluence

of cy cle lows occurring from May to September 2013. This appears to be

anticipating the most important cy cle bottom since March 2009.

Further out the cy cle low occurring in early 2018 is much larger and

there are also several other cy cles lows anticipated about the same time.

This calls into play the Principle of Synchronicity – Waves in price

movement are phased so as to cause simultaneous troughs. This means

all of these cy cles will bottom at the same time. This will likely be a time

for a very im portant m arket low. 2018 could mark the end of a long

period of bad markets that began with the bursting of the 2000 internet

bubble.

http://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/0118-12-1950-data-1950-to-2042.jpg





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Please don’t get too caught up in the large cy cles and forget that we have

bull markets that occur in between these large cy cle lows. March 2009

to the present is a good example. There’s a time to be bearish and a time

to be bullish. Y ou don’t want to be like some famous wave analy sts and

become so bearish that y ou miss the good stuff between cy cle lows.

01 /1 8 /1 2 - 1 9 5 0 Da ta - La r g e Cy cles - 2 01 0 To 2 01 9

The third chart is also based on data from 1950 to the present and shows

late February to early March 2012 as the date for the next important

bottom (15/16 month cy cle low). After that bottom the chart shows a

lesser bottom occurring during May 2012. This chart is based on 62

y ears of data and it tries to fit the cy cles to this large data-set. In the

next chart we’re going to see a difference of opinion on the upcoming

bottom based on a shorter data-set.

http://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/0118-12-1950-data-large-cycles-2010-to-2019.jpg





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01 /1 8 -1 2 - 1 9 5 0 Da ta - Cy cle Deta il - Oct 2 01 1 To Nov 2 01 2

The following cy cle chart is based on data since late 2007 and is

obviously geared towards events that have affected us over the last 5

y ears. Looking at this chart y ou can see how the next cy cle low is

anticipated in late January (instead of late February ). For the moment I

am inclined to believe the 2007 cy cle data-set. If the late January cy cle

low is correct a decline should begin soon. Since this cy cle low is less

significant than the October low, it could be a quick correction with a

rapid reversal similar to November 2011.

http://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/0118-12-1950-data-cycle-detail-oct-2011-to-nov-2012.jpg





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01 /1 8 /1 2 - 2 007 Da ta - Cy cles - A pr il 2 01 1 To Ma r ch 2 01 3

This next cy cle chart is based on data since 2007 and shows the

important cy cle lows over the last 5 y ears. Notice how it differs slightly

from the chart based on the 1950 data-set. It’s simply squeezing the

cy cles to fit into the time frame selected. I think long data-sets are

suitable for long cy cles and smaller data-sets are more accurate for

smaller cy cles. We’ll see how that works out in the near future.

http://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/0118-12-2007-data-cycles-april-2011-to-march-20131.jpg





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01 /1 8 /1 2 - 2 007 Da ta - 2 007 To Pr esen t

I find these cy cle charts to be of significant interest as it can give y ou an

idea of when to expect bottoms to occur. Wave counting gives y ou an

idea of where y ou are in the rally or decline. Altogether, these cy cle

lows coupled with wave counts can be of great help for narrowing down

valid buy points.

If y ou find these cy cle charts interesting, the serv ice “Hurst Signals”

prov ides cy cle charts and trading advice based on the work of J.M.

Hurst, “More info at HURST SIGNALS” It’s an excellent serv ice.

PRINCIPLES OF HURST ’S CYCLIC T HEORY

The Principle of Commonality – All equity (or forex or commodity ) price

movements have many elements in common (in other words similar

classes of tradable instruments have price movements with much in

common)

The Principle of Cy clicality – Price movements consist of a combination

http://hurstsignals.com/

http://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/0118-12-2007-data-2007-to-present.jpg





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of specific waves and therefore exhibit cy clic characteristics.

The Principle of Summation – Price waves which combine to produce the

price movement do so by a process of simple addition.

The Principle of Harmonicity – The wavelengths of neighboring waves in

the collection of cy cles contributing to price movement are related by a

small integer value.

The Principle of Sy nchronicity – Waves in price movement are phased so

as to cause simultaneous troughs wherever possible

The Principle of Proportionality – Waves in price movement have an

amplitude that is proportional to their wavelength.

The Principle of Nominality – A specific, nominal collection of

harmonically related waves is common to all price movements.

The Principle of Variation – The prev ious four principles represent

strong tendencies, from which variation is to be expected.

Further information about Hurst’s Cy clic Principles can be found here.

Lotsa good Hurst info here.

************************************************************************************

CHART S






http://www.sentientcode.com/downloads/SentientTraderHelp/HurstCyclicTheoryII.htm





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monthly charts.































http://pdfcrowd.com

























channel.








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Glossary Link

ABBREVIAT IONS



SPX = SP 500

ES = SP 500 Futures




TXX = Technology

************************************************************************************

Long T erm – UP






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Uptrend



Has Step 3 Up Begun ???





3 up is official






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1 2 -2 8 -1 1 LONG TERM

************************************************************************************


Downtrend








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prior major low.


scenario.









approximately 2018.












http://pdfcrowd.com













************************************************************************************

EDSON GOULD









of the reports.









http://pdfcrowd.com








about it.






























http://pdfcrowd.com














y ears of success.







y ears.

























http://pdfcrowd.com






bear market.































http://pdfcrowd.com








************************************************************************************




BUT . . . . .






Glossary Link














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Share this:




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BUY – JUNE 23, 2011

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MISCELANEOUS






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Stock Market Update – 01/03/12Pos ted January 3 , 2012 by Bob



From Jeffrey Saut’s column today :

“As for the technicals, by my work we experienced another Dow Theory

“buy signal” last week when both the DJIA (INDU/12217 .56) and the

DJTA (TRAN/5019.69) bettered their October 2011 closing reaction

“highs.” This week we may see another positive occurrence called a

“golden cross,” that is if the DJIA’s 50-day moving average

(@11934.29) crosses above its 200-DMA (@11946.57). That said, the

NY SE McClellan Oscillator is short-term overbought and the stock

market’s internal energy has not yet been fully recharged. Accordingly,

after the equity markets pop their collective “corks” with an early

January upside blow off, it would not surprise me to see a pullback

attempt. One thing is for sure, the volatility remains legion, for as the

eagle-eyed folks at the Bespoke Investment Group write:








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“Throughout 2011, we made numerous mentions of the

record number of ‘all or nothing’ days in the stock market.

We define an all or nothing day as one where the daily net

Advance/Decline reading for the S&P 500 is greater than

+/- 400. Up until recently, these types of days were

relatively rare and there were some periods where more

than a year went by without any all or nothing days. In

the last few years, however, we have seen an explosion of

occurrences, culminating with this year’s record reading

of 70 days! To put that number in perspective, from 1990

through 2004, there were only 67 all or nothing days!”

Such a volatile environment clearly calls for risk management and with

these thoughts we wish you a healthy and prosperous new year.

The call for this week: Since the day after Thanksgiving I have stuck

with the strategy that the Santa Claus rally had begun. On November

25th the SPX was changing hands around 1158. We are now 100 points

higher. Consequently, I would not chase the dragon right here since I

anticipate that an upside blow off is due …”

That’s the the way I see the market too and usually Jeffrey and I don’t

disagree. Cy cles point to some ty pe of bottom later in the month (see

charts – page 14, #7 1.95 and #7 1.96). If the correction lasts late into

the month, it could be deeper than anticipated.

Today (Jan 3) we are getting a new y ear’s blast off in the market averages

and when this is spent, we should begin the correction that Jeffrey

mentioned. The surge could be a one day hurray or it could last all

week. The market was pulling back quickly late in the day and that





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“might” point to a one day upside wonder. Usually the January

corrections have carried into mid-January (or later) and I wouldn’t

expect any thing different this time.

CYCLES

The chart below is from “Hurst Signals” an interesting cy cle serv ice

based on the work of J.M. Hurst, “More info at HURST SIGNALS”

This serv ice (on occasion) can define future dates for possible market

turns. It’s the big cy cles that are most interesting.

http://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/01-03-12-hurst.jpg

http://hurstsignals.com/





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01 -03 -1 2 HURST CYCLES

01 -03 -1 2 HURST CYCLES-2

As y ou can see by the above chart we are heading for a low during

January that will be much less significant than the October 4, 2011 low.

The October low was a 51 month cy cle low, while the January cy cle is a

16 week cy cle low (green circle and line in the above chart). According

to JM Hurst’s principle of sy nchronicity , cy cles are phased so as to cause

simultaneous troughs for all cy cles of shorter duration than the cy cle in

http://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/01-03-12-hurst-21.jpg





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question. All cy cles less than the 16 week cy cle will bottom at the same

time as the 16 week cy cle meaning they will all have a common trough

date.

PRINCIPLES OF HURST ’S CYCLIC T HEORY

The Principle of Commonality – All equity (or forex or commodity ) price

movements have many elements in common (in other words similar

classes of tradable instruments have price movements with much in

common)

The Principle of Cy clicality – Price movements consist of a combination

of specific waves and therefore exhibit cy clic characteristics.

The Principle of Summation – Price waves which combine to produce the

price movement do so by a process of simple addition.

The Principle of Harmonicity – The wavelengths of neighbouring waves

in the collection of cy cles contributing to price movement are related by

a small integer value.

The Principle of Sy nchronicity – Waves in price movement are phased so

as to cause simultaneous troughs wherever possible

The Principle of Proportionality – Waves in price movement have an

amplitude that is proportional to their wavelength.

The Principle of Nominality – A specific, nominal collection of

harmonically related waves is common to all price movements.

The Principle of Variation – The prev ious four principles represent

strong tendencies, from which variation is to be expected.





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Further information about Hurst’s Cy clic Principles can be found here.

Lotsa good Hurst info here.

SCARY CHART

CLICK ON CHART S T O ENLARGE

http://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/01-03-12-dj-ind-daily.jpg

http://www.sentientcode.com/downloads/SentientTraderHelp/HurstCyclicTheoryII.htm





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01 -03 -1 2 DJ IND DA ILY

Now that’s one scary chart (the red wave count). This is just one of those

“what if” things that bother me from time to time (all the time actually ).

It could gain credibility if the correction running into later January

becomes a lot wilder than anticipated. I’ll be keeping an ey e on this

possibility in the day s ahead. Incidentally , I alway s have a scary chart

that I can pull out and show whenever the mood strikes.

Thank y ou for the 21 ,37 3 hits to my chart link last month.

The activ ity on my charts dropped dramatically begining on December

17 th. It seems a LOT of people took off for a vacation during the

holiday s. If activ ity had not dropped off during this period, I would have

had over 31 ,000 hits for the month (averaging over 1 ,000 hits per day

earlier). Regardless, 21 ,37 3 hits ranked among the highest at

stockcharts.com

Interestingly , a significant number of these hits came around 3 AM to 5





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AM EST, which coincides with trading in Europe beginning around 3 AM.

It seems that there are two possibilities for location for these hits,

Europe and the east coast of the USA. 24 hour world-wide trading has

forced a lot of traders to adjust their life cy cle patterns, which could

allow for east coast v iewing.

MAYBE T HIS WILL HAPPEN?

In the above chart notice how nicely the Andrews Pitchforks have

contained the market moves. We have broken to the upside from the

downward sloping pitchfork and the uptrend pitchfork is performing

nicely . Presently the market is on one of the lesser lines (dotted) and

should stay below that line. If we were to break that line to the upside,

we should move to the upper line and slow the advance. The central line

“should” restrict any downward movement in the market (as long as all is

OK).

Partial profit taking can be entertained if y ou got in quickly after the

false move to the downside on December 15th.

Meantime we will stay with an “overall” uptrend theme.

************************************************************************************

CHART S











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monthly charts.
































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Page 31 through 45 are growth stocks with indicators (new).

These are stocks that have been in an uptrend. One qualification is







Page 46 – Junk Pile












channel.









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Glossary Link

ABBREVIAT IONS



SPX = SP 500

ES = SP 500 Futures




TXX = Technology

************************************************************************************

Long T erm – UP

Uptrend






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Has Step 3 Up Begun ???





3 up is official






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1 2 -2 8 -1 1 LONG TERM

************************************************************************************


Downtrend








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prior major low.


scenario.









approximately 2018.












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************************************************************************************

EDSON GOULD









of the reports.









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about it.






























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y ears of success.







y ears.

























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bear market.































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************************************************************************************




BUT . . . . .






Glossary Link














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Share this:




well underway .












BUY – JUNE 23, 2011

************************************************************************************

MISCELANEOUS






Digg Email Print





















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Edson Gould’s 1979 Forecast (Dec 1978)Pos ted December 29, 2011 by Bob

Categories: EDSO N GO ULD

http://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/edson-goulds-1979-forecast.jpg


http://stockmarketobservations.wordpress.com/2011/12/29/edson-goulds-1979-forecast-dec-1978/





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Edson Gou ld's 1 9 7 9 For eca st - Pa g e 2

I was a subscriber to Edson Gould’s “Findings & Forecast” from 197 4 to

197 9. Impressed by the quality of information, I kept Gould’s special

reports, y early forecasts and important portions of his semimonthly

market letters.

Having never written a book, Edson Gould’s stock market memoirs are

contained in his market letters and special reports. Searching the

internet I’ve found a couple of his reports and none of his market letters.

Except for the postings here, it’s certainly possible that Gould’s stock

market observations have been lost.

Some may say that these publications are old and not relevant. I would

suggest those believers read “One Way Pockets”. This little stock market

gem was written in 1917 and contains a wealth of important information.

“One Way Pockets” certainly proves how human behavior doesn’t

change. I wish I had found this book when I was beginning my stock

market education, but believ ing that nothing of genuine importance

could come from the distant past, I restricted my reading to current

publications. A condensed version of “One Way Pockets” is posted on

this blog.

Gould believed that the stock market was moved by the emotions of the

crowd, fear, panic and greed. Those emotions combined with the





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pendulum of swinging from one emotional extreme to the other formed

the foundation of Gould’s predictions. Crowd behavior in the stock

market is a timeless factor that will never change.

The ultimate book on crowd behavior is “Mem oirs of extraordinary

popular delusions and the m adness of crowds” by Charles

Mackay (1852). It is available for free from Google Books (click on the

link above).

Because of the timelessness of crowd behavior y ou will find that Gould’s

indicators still function very well in predicting the stock market.

Recently I scanned Edson Gould’s y early forecasts and many of his

market letters. There remains a significant number of pages and subjects

that have not been scanned.

To receive this report (pdf format), please complete the following form.

Name (required)

Email (required)

Comment (required)

http://books.google.com/books?id=NmEOAAAAQAAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=Extraordinary+Popular+Delusions+and+the+Madness+of+Crowds&hl=en&ei=KKzGTvCUAqz_sQK0uLhJ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=4&ved=0CEsQ6AEwAw#v=onepage&q&f=false





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Edson Gould’s 1978 Forecast (Dec 1977)Pos ted December 29, 2011 by Bob

Categories: EDSO N GO ULD


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Edson Gou ld's 1 9 7 8 For eca st - Pa g e 2

I was a subscriber to Edson Gould’s “Findings & Forecast” from 197 4 to





http://pdfcrowd.com


197 9. Impressed by the quality of information, I kept Gould’s special

reports, y early forecasts and important portions of his semimonthly

market letters.

Having never written a book, Edson Gould’s stock market memoirs are

contained in his market letters and special reports. Searching the

internet I’ve found a couple of his reports and none of his market letters.

Except for the postings here, it’s certainly possible that Gould’s stock

market observations have been lost.

Some may say that these publications are old and not relevant. I would

suggest those believers read “One Way Pockets”. This little stock market

gem was written in 1917 and contains a wealth of important information.

“One Way Pockets” certainly proves how human behavior doesn’t

change. I wish I had found this book when I was beginning my stock

market education, but believ ing that nothing of genuine importance

could come from the distant past, I restricted my reading to current

publications. A condensed version of “One Way Pockets” is posted on

this blog.

Gould believed that the stock market was moved by the emotions of the

crowd, fear, panic and greed. Those emotions combined with the

pendulum of swinging from one emotional extreme to the other formed

the foundation of Gould’s predictions. Crowd behavior in the stock

market is a timeless factor that will never change.

The ultimate book on crowd behavior is “Mem oirs of extraordinary

popular delusions and the m adness of crowds” by Charles

Mackay (1852). It is available for free from Google Books (click on the

link above).

http://books.google.com/books?id=NmEOAAAAQAAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=Extraordinary+Popular+Delusions+and+the+Madness+of+Crowds&hl=en&ei=KKzGTvCUAqz_sQK0uLhJ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=4&ved=0CEsQ6AEwAw#v=onepage&q&f=false





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Share this:

Because of the timelessness of crowd behavior y ou will find that Gould’s

indicators still function very well in predicting the stock market.

Recently I scanned Edson Gould’s y early forecasts and many of his

market letters. There remains a significant number of pages and subjects

that have not been scanned.

To receive this report (pdf format), please complete the following form.

Name (required)

Email (required)

Comment (required)

Submit »


http://stockmarketobservations.wordpress.com/2011/12/29/edson-goulds-1978-forecast-dec-1977/?share=reddit&nb=1

http://stockmarketobservations.wordpress.com/2011/12/29/edson-goulds-1978-forecast-dec-1977/?share=linkedin&nb=1

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