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Lecture 1:
Introduction
Prof. Dan Sperling
September 27, 2012Fall Quarter 2012
Energy and Environmental Aspects of Transportation
Civil and Environmental Engineering (ECI) 163Environmental Science and Policy (ESP) 163
Big Themes 1. Key overarching issues
• Are we running out of oil?• Are oil companies evil and conspiring to keep oil prices high?• Who really killed the electric car and is blocking the switch to alternative fuels?• Is climate change real and what should we do?• Is air pollution a severe problem?• Is technology the solution to energy, air pollution, and climate problems?• Do benefits of cars outweigh costs?
2. Key policy design issues• If can’t measure it, you can’t manage it (methodological and data issues)• Role of causality—esp for AQ and climate change• Who should be made responsible for solving a problem—keeping in mind
jurisdictional challenges (who’s in charge and can do something about it)• Market based approaches vs regulatory and voluntary instruments
3. Systems challenges: how to coordinate responses to different parts of a system (eg, switching to electric cars)? Before automakers sell EVs, they need to be sure that electricity companies will build recharging stations, while electricity companies want EVs to be sold in large numbers before they invest in electricity charging, and policymakers need to create incentives for both car and energy companies to make their risky investments. All these policies and investments must happen concurrently. A similar story is true for other fuels and vehicles.
Outline
• Introduction
• Motivation for course on transportation and environment
• Overview of course topicsI. Problems and Challenges– Air quality
– Energy
– Climate change
II. Technologies, Strategies, and Solutions– Vehicles
– Fuels
– Mobility
– Freight
Introduction
• Who are we?– Instructor:
Prof. Dan SperlingProfessor, Civil and Environmental Engineering
Professor, Environmental Science and Policy
Director, Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS-Davis)
Board member, California Air Resources Board
– Teaching assistants:
Sydney Vergis , Kevin Fang, Brigitte DrillerTransportation gGraduate students, UC-Davis
Introduction• Logistics
– Lecture: • Tuesdays and Thursdays, 1:40 - 3:00pm
• Location: 179 Chemistry
– Smartsite:• All course
materials, readings, etc.
smartsite.ucdavis.edu
Introduction
• Logistics– Email:
• Prof. Sperling: [email protected]• Sydney Vergis [email protected]• Brigitte Driller [email protected]• Kevin Fang [email protected]
– Office hours:• Prof. Sperling: T 3:15-5:30, By appt. 2027
Academic Surge• Sydney Vergis: Tues 9-11AM 2143 Wickson• Brigitte Driller: Wed 10:30-12:30 2143 Wickson• Kevin Fang Thur 12:10-1:30 2143 Wickson
Introduction
• Course details– Grading components:
• 3 papers (13% each): 3 pages each, on assigned topics
• 4 quizzes (8% each)
• Final exam (29%): Dec 10
– Course readings• See course schedule for readings for each class
• Readings are posted at course website
– Assignments• Due midnight of posted due date
• To be uploaded at course website
• Late assignments assessed 5% penalty per day late.
Course Motivation
PROBLEMS
• Air Quality– Local air quality
– Health impacts of pollution
• Energy– Oil prices, costs of travel and goods transport
– Oil imports, security, geopolitics
• Climate Change– Environmental, economic impacts
– Currently active policy area (e.g. California’s AB 32, low carbon fuel standard)
SOLUTIONS: technology, behavior, and policy
• Vehicles
• Fuels
• Mobility
• Freight
September 25, 2008 9
This Course is Relatively Simple!
Vehicle Ownership is Soaring—Resulting in Increased Fuel Use, Pollution, and GHG
Emissions
Source: Sperling and Gordon, 2009
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Nu
mb
er o
f M
oto
r V
ehic
les
(Bil
lio
ns)
Cycles & Scooters
Trucks & Buses
Cars
The Problem?!
Transportation Plays Large Role in Climate Change and Oil Security (and AQ)
21%
23%
28%
38%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
E.U.
Worldwide
U.S.
California
Direct share* transport CO2 emissions
Transportation accounts for 2/3 of oil used in US
and ½ in world
EIA, 2006
Transportation accounts for ¼ of CO2 emissions in world
Transportation accounts for ~1/2 of urban air
pollution
Air Quality• Our automobile emissions (e.g., CO, HC, NOx, Pb) are
far lower than in 1970.
• Yet local air quality problems still persist….
Petroleum Dependence
• Every U.S. President since the 1970s has sought to reduce our dependence on foreign oil.
• Yet we are increasingly dependent on imports….
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1999 2004
Year
Pet
role
um
use
in
th
e U
.S.
(th
ou
san
d b
arre
ls/d
ay)
Domestic production
Imported petroleum
30% imported
60% imported
To stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration, need to decarbonize the energy system at several times the historical
rate of 0.3%/y. Even if electric sector is completely decarbonized by 2100, stabilization at 550 (450) ppm => 3
(5) fold reduction in carbon emissions from direct fuel use vs. IS92a.
450
550
350 ppm
750 ppm
Bil
lio
n t
on
s o
f C
O2
(glo
bal
) The Climate Change Challenge
Some scientists now say 350 ppm is
necessary to avoid catastrophic climate
change
Transforming TransportationTransforming Transportation
• Transforming vehicles • Transforming fuels • Transforming mobility
Vehicle Efficiency
• Efficiency of automobiles improves every year.
• Yet our fuel economy is just beginning to improve….
15
20
25
30
35
40
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Model year
Fu
el e
con
om
y (m
pg
)
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
Veh
icle
eff
icie
ncy
(t
on
-mp
g)
Efficiency
Fuel Economy
Alternative Fuels
• Transportation is 96% fueled by petroleum.
• Yet there are many available alternative fuel technologies with lower environmental impacts…
GM’s Volt (Plug-in Hybrid)
Honda FCX Clarity (hydrogen fuel cell)
Volkswagen Jetta (Diesel)
Nissan Leaf (Battery Electric)
Growth in Travel, Mobility
• We have experienced exponential growth in travel.
• Can we continue to do so at the same rate?
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Km
/day
-cap
10-1
10-2
100
101
102
Met
er/d
ay-
cap
100,000
10,000
1,000
100
10
All modes
Buses + cars
Rail
2-Wheelers
Horses
Air
TGV
Railways
Waterways
Passenger travel by mode (per day per capita, France)
Source: Grubler, IIASA, 2002
Transportation and Land Use
• SOV Cars dominate in US passenger transport system (and increasingly elsewhere)
• Government policies support highways and suburban development
Pisarski, 2007
Major Policy Trends
Air
Quality
Energy
Climate Change
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
• Clean Air Acts (automobile emission regulations)
• Diesel truck emission standards
• Energy Tax Act (ethanol subsidy), biofuel mandates
• California vehicle emission standards
• California vehicle CO2 standard
• Low carbon fuel standards
• Calif. zero-emission vehicle mandate
U.S. policy precedents for transportation and the environment:
• Energy Policy Conservation Act (automobile fuel economy)
• Fuel requirements (lead, sulfur, oxygenates)
• California land use/VMT
Externalities• What are they?
– Impacts (costs or benefits) not directly involved in an economic decision• Why do we care?
– Sometimes the free market system does not fully account for all economic costs and benefits to society
– This can result in socially sub-optimal results• Transportation examples: air pollution, petroleum dependence, congestion,
climate change
FirmConsumer
Goods
Money
Consumption
External impacts on others not involved in economic decision
Production
Dealing with Externalities
• For example, if a factory is manufacturing a product that pollutes a river…– Direct economic approach – Downstream residents could get
together, pay polluter to stop polluting
– Command and control approach – Government could ban (or restrict) river pollution, enforce with heavily armed river boat patrols (or with environmental protection agencies)
– “Pigouvian” tax – Government could tax polluters in accordance with the social costs they generate
– Marketable permits – Government could issue “pollution permits,” allow the polluters to trade them to achieve pollution reduction at lowest cost
– “Socialist” approach – If pollution is industrial, the industry could be nationalized, run in a socially profitable way
September 25, 2008 24
Evolution of Transportation Monoculture
1859 First U.S. oil well discovered
First internal combustion engine car built by Karl Benz
1885
1908 Model T (with ICE) debuts
U.S. transit ridership reaches highest peacetime levels
1926
1930 Car ownership reaches 200 for every 1000 Americans
Suburban building boom begins following World War II
1947
1956 U.S. Interstate Highway System launched
Arab oil embargo constricts supply 1973
1979 Iran-Iraq war doubles oil prices
First hybrid-electric cars sold in U.S. 2000
2003 Car ownership reaches 1.15 vehicles per American driver
Motor vehicle population worldwide exceeds 1 billion
2005
2008 Crude hits $140 a barrel
Conclusions
• Trends point toward more travel and more energy-intensive modes of travel
• These transportation trends have consequences– Air quality impacts
– Petroleum dependence
– Climate change impacts
• These externalities are problems, but solvable problems that can be addressed with technology and policy solutions
These trends – and the strategies to reverse them – are why courses like this are so important!