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8/8/2019 002.Joe Gladbach
1/13
Jefferies & Company, Inc.
Member SIPC
DUG EastPresentation by Jefferies & Co.
November 4, 2010
http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.mountainoilfield.com/images-newsite/frontpageimages/dugeast-tradeshow.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.mountainoilfield.com/&usg=__5FWs1rRk6anYNHMWMOiEvyDoSXk=&h=139&w=187&sz=9&hl=en&start=3&sig2=IPWTiXmWyrQ9C5Vpr7mKDw&zoom=1&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=Jh52DVboQBdH7M:&tbnh=76&tbnw=102&prev=/images?q=dug+east&um=1&hl=en&safe=active&sa=N&tbs=isch:1&ei=W3XITOW0B8OAlAezsMX3Aghttp://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.mountainoilfield.com/images-newsite/frontpageimages/dugeast-tradeshow.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.mountainoilfield.com/&usg=__5FWs1rRk6anYNHMWMOiEvyDoSXk=&h=139&w=187&sz=9&hl=en&start=3&sig2=IPWTiXmWyrQ9C5Vpr7mKDw&zoom=1&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=Jh52DVboQBdH7M:&tbnh=76&tbnw=102&prev=/images?q=dug+east&um=1&hl=en&safe=active&sa=N&tbs=isch:1&ei=W3XITOW0B8OAlAezsMX3Ag8/8/2019 002.Joe Gladbach
2/13
Overview of Jefferies Energy Group
Jefferies is consistently among the top three global advisors to the oil & gas industry
We are the foremost advisor in shale-related transactions:
Have advised on eight of the nine largest shale deals, more than all other advisors combined
Unparalleled experience related to both technical and commercial issues
Senior team has executive relationships throughout the oil and gas industry
Have served 40 of the 50 largest worldwide energy companies including ExxonMobil, BHP
Billiton, Shell, Statoil, Total, CNOOC, and Conoco, completing multiple projects for most
We have the largest, most experienced technical group in the industry, which is a hallmark of thefirm and sets us apart from our competition
We have particular expertise in the Marcellus, and have evaluated:
Over 4 million prospective Marcellus acres across NY, PA, and WV
Over 200 horizontal and 100 vertical Marcellus wells
Hundreds of miles of 2D and 3D seismic
Hundreds of logs and approximately 50 full cores
Well design, completion process, and development strategies for some of the most active
Marcellus operators1
8/8/2019 002.Joe Gladbach
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Introduction
The oil and gas business is going through a major transition; shale plays represent afundamental industry shift
For North American natural gas, the huge recoverable resource has critical long-termimplications
Potential for gas to be a cornerstone of U.S. energy policy
Ability of large energy users to make long-term commitment to gas as fuel source
Large unconventional oil projects are emerging and appear promising
Of the U.S. gas shale plays, the Marcellus has risen to the top for several reasons, including:
Scale of the play
Superior per-well economics: 30%+ IRRs at $5.00 / MMBtu
Close to U.S. population centers and significant interstate pipeline access
Geologically stable area; structurally uncomplicated
Significant additional resource potential within the play (Utica, Huron, Burkett, etc.)
2
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Increasing International Interest in Shale Plays
With the success of the shale plays, the super majors and particularly the large internationalO&G companies have emerged as the premium buyers of U.S. shale assets
Date BuyerBuyerDomicile Seller
ResourcePlay
TransactionValue($MM)
Sept-08 BP United Kingdom Chesapeake Energy Fayetteville Shale $1,900
Nov-08 Statoil ASA Norway Chesapeake Energy Marcellus Shale 3,375
May-09 ENI Spa Italy Quicksilver Resources Barnett Shale 280
Jun-09 BG Group United Kingdom EXCO Resources Haynesville Shale 1,055
Dec-09 Total SA France Chesapeake Energy Barnett Shale 2,250
Feb-10 Mitsui & Company Japan Anadarko Petroleum Marcellus Shale 1,400
Mar-10 Statoil ASA Norway Chesapeake Energy Marcellus Shale 253
Apr-10 Reliance Industries India Atlas Energy Marcellus Shale 1,700
May-10 BG Group United Kingdom EXCO Resources Marcellus Shale 950
Jun-10 Reliance Industries India Pioneer Natural Resources Eagle Ford Shale 1,150
Aug-10 Reliance Industries India Carrizo Oil & Gas Marcellus Shale 392
Aug-10 Sumitomo Japan Rex Energy Marcellus Shale 140
Oct-10 Statoil / Talisman Norway / Canada Enduring Eagle Ford Shale 1,325
Oct-10 CNOOC China Chesapeake Energy Eagle Ford Shale 2,160
Total Since 9/08 $18,330
3
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M&A Outlook
We will continue to see consolidation and joint ventures in the shales as companies look torationalize their acreage positions and / or bring in investors / partners
Most large acreage holders cannot develop their positions alone
M&A / JV interest remains strong
The competitive landscape for high-quality transactions is increasing
Private equity has become more active and is willing to be competitive
4
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Natural Gas Price Environment
NYMEX Forward Natural Gas
$-
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
5-Year Henry Hub Forward Curve Spot Price
Natural gas prices likely to remain weak near-term due to:
Weak economy
Shale play performance significantly exceeding expectations; well performance is above the type curves
Significant non-economic drilling to hold acreage
Significant drilling to expend JV carries
5
8/8/2019 002.Joe Gladbach
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$-
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$8.96
$7.08
$5.80 $5.58 $5.38$4.96
$4.51 $4.36
$3.55
Required Pricing for 20% Pre-tax Return vs. NYMEX Strip(1)
The Marcellus is the Most Attractive Shale Play in the U.S.
Key Points
Gas prices havedeclined since mid-2008 as a result ofcontinued high levels ofdrilling activity to holdacreage in emergingplays
This decline has madedifferentiation amongthe plays moreimportant
The Marcellus has thelowest breakeven price
of all the plays and willremain attractivethroughout thecommodity cycle
NYMEX 5-YR Average Forward Price Price Required to Generate 20% IRR ($ / Mcfe)(2)
(1)Assumes 12:1 natural gas to crude oil conversion ratio.(2)Based on Jefferies internal estimates and publicly available shale production information.
Woodford
Ba
rnett
Fay
etteville
Haynesville
EF
Dry
EF
Oil
EF
Wet
Bak
ken
Marc
ellus
NYMEX 5-YR Average: $5.12
6
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Largest Marcellus Shale Transactions 2008 to Date
Jefferies acted as advisor
May-10 Shell East Resources, Inc. $4,700.0 650,000 $7,230 / acre
Mar-10 Consol Energy Dominion Resources Inc 3,475.0 491,000 $4,000 / acre
Nov-08 StatoilHydro Chesapeake Energy 3,375.0 585,000 $5,769 / acre
Apr-10 Reliance Industries Atlas Energy 1,700.0 120,000 $14,100 / acre
Feb-10 Mitsui & Company, Ltd. Anadarko Petroleum Corporation 1,400.0 100,000 $14,000 / acre
May-10 BG Group EXCO Resources 950.0 93,000 $5,914 / acre
Apr-08 XTO Energy Incorporated Linn Energy LLC 600.0 152,000 $4.13 / Mcfe
May-10 Williams Alta Resources 584.0 42,000 $14,000 / acre
Jan-10 Undisclosed Hunt Oil 500.0 NA NA
Aug-09 Enerplus Resources Chief Oil & Gas 406.0 116,000 $3,500 / acre
Dec-09 Ultra Petroleum NCL Appalachian Partners 400.0 80,000 $5,000 / acre
Aug-10 Reliance Industries Ltd Carrizo Oil & Gas 392.0 62,600 $6,262 / acre
Jun-09 Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. East Resources, Inc. 350.0 NA NA
Jun-08 Antero Resources Corporation Dominion Resources Inc 347.0 114,259 $3,037 / acre
Selected
Metrics
Date
AnnouncedBuyers Sellers Value
($MM)
Net Acreage
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8/8/2019 002.Joe Gladbach
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$-
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
$8.00
$8.50
$9.00
Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10
Marcellus Valuation Trends vs. Natural Gas Prices
1
2
5
7
8
9
10
3
64
11
1
2
5
8
9
10
3
6
4
11
711/11/2008: Chesapeake/ StatoilHydro, $5,769
8/19/2009: Chief/ Enerplus, $3,500
12/21/2009: NCL/ Ultra, $5,000
3/15/2010: Dominion/ Consol, $4,000
2/1/2010: Anadarko/ Mitsui, $14,000
4/9/2010: Atlas/ Reliance, $14,100
5/10/2010: Exco/ BG, $5,914
5/25/2010: Alta/ Williams, $14,000
5/28/2010: East/ Shell, $7,230
8/5/2010: Carrizo/ Reliance, $6,262
8/31/2010: Sumitomo/ Rex, $9,000
X Transaction Date: Seller/ Buyer, Acreage Value ($/acre)
$/Acre
5-YearForwardHenryH
ub
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8/8/2019 002.Joe Gladbach
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Key Marcellus Trends / Market Dynamics
Development is accelerating rapidly
Results are improving from longer laterals, new fracing methods
The core of the play is expanding to the West
Off-the-ground leases are becoming scarce
Environmental concerns are increasing
Deeper potential is emerging, particularly to the West
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Topic Comments
Asset Quality
Location of acreage in relation to other publicly announced results
Contiguous nature of acreage position, royalty rates, percentage of acreage held byproduction (HBP), expiration schedule of leases
Asset Maturation
Number of horizontal wells across acreage position
Time-span of production data
Need for development and expansion of gathering infrastructure
M&A Demand
Transaction size, resource potential and play attractiveness drawing large, well-
capitalized new entrant buyersNew entrant buyer pool shrinking as deals occur; likely to see several transactions in
the next 6-12 months
Transaction ValuationKey buyer relationships, strong technical and commercial presentation and a highly
competitive process are critical to achieving top-tier results
Capital AvailabilityCapital markets extremely supportive of shale development; debt and equity markets
are open and available to fund acquisitions and JVs
Natural Gas Prices
Currently depressed gas prices should persist over the near-term
New entrants utilizing long term price deck at the NYMEX strip with a $4.00 - $5.00 /MMBtu sensitivity case
Competitive Threat
of Other Assets
Steady flow of deals in the market
Number of companies currently pursuing JVs
Evaluation Points for a Marcellus Transaction
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Detailed Technical and Commercial Presentations Are Critical toAchieve Premium Valuation
Critical to achieving a premium valuation are:
A thorough technical and commercial data set that fully validates valuation expectations
An aggressive but credible development plan
Significant and active market knowledge of the buyer universe and their key objectives,requirements, concerns, process and value drivers
A thorough and deliberate sales process; precedent transactions validate that a poorprocess results in a 25% - 50% discount to fair value
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Notable Recent Marcellus Shale Transactions
Largest Marcellus Shaletransaction to date by value
Entrance of a Super-major
into the Marcellus
High watermark Marcellusvaluation
Entrance of a foreign O&G
company into U.S. gasshales
Sale of premium Marcellusacreage
Little technical data / few
wells drilled at time oftransaction
$4,700,000,000
Sale to
Royal Dutch Shell P lcSole Financial Advisor
May 2010Energy
has agreed to enter into aMarcellus Shale Joint Venture with
Reliance Industries.
Lead Financial Advisor
$1,700,000,000
April 2010Energy May 2010
$584,000,000
Sold certain Marcellus Shaleassets to
WilliamsFinancial Advisor to the selle r
Energy
12