0 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing

1Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009

“Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental risks“

UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITYInstitute for Environment and

Human Security(UNU-EHS)


Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia

Environmental Degradation, Climate Change, Conflicts and Migration

Fabrice RenaudAssociate Director

UNU-EHSBonn, Germany


Global Environmental Change and Human Security

Adapted from concepts of UNDP, 1991 and Kofi Annan

Economic

Political

Community

Personal

Environmental

Health

Food

Sustainable Human Development

Freedom from Want Freedom from Fear

Glo

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En

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Environmental change, climate change and conflicts

Climate change is increasingly discussed in relation to international conflicts and security in general(1)

For example, in the West-African Sahel(2):

• Droughts linked to climate variability increase the vulnerability of communities and conflicts

• Migration of pastoralists from the North towards southern regions occupied by sedentary farmers generated some conflicts. But reverse trends also exists whereby farmers from the South move towards the North because of land degradation processes.

However, straightforward causality effects are generally rare as many other factors come into play: economic, social, political and cultural (re. the discussions surrounding the Darfur conflict or “water wars”)

(1)Brown et al (2007): Climate change as the ‘new’ security threat: implications for Africa. International Affairs 83:1141-54(2)Nyong: Climate related conflicts in West Africa. ECSP Report, Issue No 12.


Current & potential effects of climate change in Latin America

Climatic variability and extreme events are severely affecting the Latin America region over recent years (including Amazon drought in 2005)

During the last decades important changes in precipitation and increases in temperature have been observed

Land-use changes have intensified the use of natural resources and exacerbated many of the processes of land degradation:

• Three quarters of the drylands are affected by degradation processes

• Decrease in natural land cover through climatic and man-made impacts

Under future climate change, there is a risk of significant species extinctions in many areas of tropical Latin America:

• Replacement of tropical forest by savannas is expected in eastern Amazonia

• Replacement of semi-arid vegetation by arid vegetation in parts of north-east Brazil

The expected increases in sea-level rise, weather and climatic variability and extremes are very likely to affect coastal areas

Magrin et al. (2007): Fourth IPCC Report


Likelihood that future summer average temperatures exceed highest summer

temperatures observed on record

2040-2060 2080-2100

Battisti et Naylor (2009): Historical warnings of future food insecurtiy with unprecedented historical heat. Science 323: 240-244


Human security, vulnerability and climate change

Vulnerability of people and communities with respect to climate change depends on(1):

• Their dependence with respect to ecosystem services

• The impact of climate change on these ecosystems

• Adaptation capacities of the communities

Capacity to adapt reduces vulnerability:

• Societies adapt constantly

• However, what are their limits when considering climate change?

• Migration is a type of adaptation

(1)Barnett & Adger (2007): Climate change, human security and violent conflicts. Political Geography 36:639-655


Environmental migration: estimates

Some estimates on environmental migration:• 24 millions (UNHCR 2002)

• 2010: 50 millions (Myers 2005)

• 2050: 200 millions most often quoted (Stern 2006, IOM 2008)

• After 2050: up to 700 millions (Christian Aid 2007)

Hundreds of millions (Stern, 2009) leading to conflicts


UNHCR and environmental migration

In terms of international governance there is a distinction between international and cross border displacements:

• Existing legal frameworks already consider internal displacements

• However some cross-border displacements are not covered by any legal framework

Displacement scenarios considered:

• Hydro-meteorological disasters;

• Zones designated by governments as being too high-risk;

• Environmental degradation and slow onset disasters;

• “Sinking” small island states; and

• Armed conflicts triggered by a decrease in essential resources.

Guterres (2008): Climate change, natural disasters and human displacement: a UNHCR perspective


Proposed categories

Environmental Emergency Migrants (as opposed to Environmental Refugees):

• People who flee the worst of an environmental impact on a permanent or temporary basis. They have to take refuge to save their lives

Environmentally Forced Migrants:

• People who “have to leave” to avoid the worst of environmental degradation. The urgency of flight is less

Environmentally Motivated Migrants:

• People who “may leave” a steadily deteriorating environment to pre-empt the worst


Rapid Onset Hazards(e.g. Floods, Earthquakes)

Loss of Ecosystem Services and

Slow Onset Hazards

Rapid and effective social, economic and

physical recovery of impacted areas

Migrant does notreturn to

impacted area

Slow and ineffective social, economic and

physical recovery of impacted areas

ENVIRONMENTALLY MOTIVATED MIGRANT

ENVIRONMENTALLY FORCED

MIGRANT

ENVIRONMENTALEMERGENCY

MIGRANT

Action of fleeing to save one’s life

Person migrates awayfrom impacted area

Environmental reason for migration

decision dominant e.g. reoccurring droughts,

sea-level rise

Environmental reason for migration decision

not dominant

NOT AN ENVIRONMENTAL

MIGRANT

Accelerated degradationof ecosystems

e.g. pollution events, rapid soil erosion

Gradual degradation of ecosystems

e.g. land degradation, loss of biodiversity,

sea-level rise



MIGRANT

Migrant does notreturn to

impacted area

Alternative livelihoodwas possible inimpacted area

Alternative livelihoodwas possible in impacted

area but requiredsignificant time

No alternative livelihood was

possible in impacted area

Livelihoods Impacted

Land/home destroyed, lost and/or unsafe

Impacted area no longer exists

ENVIRONMENTALEVENT

Slo

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Rapid onset hazards

Preliminary definition framework

Renaud et al. (2009): A Decision Framework for Environmentally Induced Migration. Submitted to International Migration Journal


Accelerated degradationof ecosystems

e.g. pollution events, rapid soil erosion

Loss of Ecosystem Services and

Slow Onset Hazards

Person migrates awayfrom impacted area

Environmental reason for migration

decision dominant e.g. reoccurring droughts,

sea-level rise

Environmental reason for migration decision

not dominant

NOT AN ENVIRONMENTAL

MIGRANT

Gradual degradation of ecosystems

e.g. land degradation, loss of biodiversity,

sea-level rise



MIGRANT

Alternative livelihoodwas possible inimpacted area

Alternative livelihoodwas possible in impacted

area but requiredsignificant time

No alternative livelihood was

possible in impacted area

Livelihoods Impacted

Impacted area no longer exists


Figure f. Maps indicating number of people affected (and potentially displaced) under a 1 metre sea-level rise scenario based on current socio-economic and environmental conditions in Viet Nam (Source: Carew-Reid 2007, pp27-28 (modified))


1 m Sea level riseAmazon Delta

Source: CRESIS - http://www.cresis.ku.edu/research/data/sea_level_rise/index.html


The five-pronged approach: a call for simultaneous actions

Science:

• Better understanding between the cause-effects mechanisms (including other push/pull factors)

‐ Who migrates, where and when?

‐ For creeping processes, identification of crisis tipping points (thresholds)

• Quantification of migration responses to the impact of environmental degradation

‐ Rapid onset vs. “creeping” processes

• Scenarios and policies

‐ Link migration to adaptation strategies & to environmental and climate change

‐ Long term effects of resettlements

• Cooperation between all stakeholders

Source: Renaud, Bogardi, Dun, Warner (2007): Intersction No 5, UNU-EHSBogardi, Warner (2008): Here comes the flood. Nature 3:9-11


The five-pronged approach (cont’d)

Awareness: • Raise knowledge-based public and political awareness and its social,

economic, environmental dimensions

• Rectify the “Northern” bias

• Concept needs to be included in outcome of Copenhagen summit, UNCCD, IPCC

Legislation: • Establish and implement a framework that recognises environmental

migrants to protect adequately individuals displaced by environmental degradation processes

Humanitarian aid:• Empower the United Nations system and humanitarian organizations to

provide aid to environmental migrants

Institutional: • Establish institutions that are able to assist the flux of environmental

migrants


Conclusions

Links between global environmental change, human security, migration and/or conflict can be real but:

• They are not always systematic

• There is a need for more research in order to establish the multiple causality factors

Governance plays a crucial role:

• Limit causes of conflicts which are often multiple

• Allow space for traditional conflict resolution mechanisms

• Facilitate adaptation to environmental change and climate change

This can only be achieved through a multi-stakeholder concerted approach (including in the Amazon basin)


Thank YouMerci

Obrigado

UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY

Institute for Environment and Human Security

(UNU-EHS)

Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10

D-53113 Bonn, Germany

Phone: ++ 49 (0) 228 815-0200

Fax: ++ 49 (0) 228 815-0299

E-Mail: [email protected]

www.ehs.unu.edu

Documents

0 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing