THE CIT Y OF GREATER GEELONG

SETTLEMENT STRATEGY

ISSUES PAPER J U LY 2017

CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION 6OUR FUTURE 8POLICY FRAMEWORK 10SUSTAINABLE SETTLEMENTS 12POPULATION 14LOT SUPPLY AND DIVERSITY 18HOUSING 26FUTURE GROWTH 34INFRASTRUCTURE PROVISION 38

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KEY DEFINITIONS

ACTIVIT Y CENTRES - suburban or township centres that provide a focus for services, employment, housing, transport and social interaction

AFFORDABLE HOUSING - housing where the cost (rent or mortgage payments) is no more than 30 per cent of gross income for households in the bottom two quintiles of an areas median income

BROWNFIELD - land previously used, often for industrial purposes, but which has subsequently become vacant, derelict or contaminated and is identified for urban renewal projects.

INFILL / URBAN CONSOLIDATION - infill development can be defined in various ways including‘urban consolidation’, ‘medium density housing’,‘redevelopment’ or ‘high rise development’. Infill tends to be defined as: ‘the more intensive use of land for residential development in urban areas’.

DISPERSED INFILL - residential development projects located within the established urban area yielding less than 10 dwellings.

MA JOR INFILL/REDEVELOPMENT - residential development projects located within the established urban area yielding 10 or more dwellings.

GREENFIELD / BROAD HECTARE DEVELOPMENT/ MASTER PL ANNED COMMUNITIES - undeveloped land identified for residential or industrial/commercial development, generally on the urban fringe.

INTEGRATED INFRASTRUCTURE DELIVERYPL AN (IIDP) - plans for the delivery of civil and social infrastructure ensure the growth area is provided with the timely delivery of infrastructure and services.

FRAMEWORK PL AN - supports and guides development vision, planning and design principles and high level infrastructure for identified growth areas.

PRECINCT STRUCTURE PL AN - sets the blueprint for development and investment in a master planned communities including road layout, land uses, infrastructure, biodiversity, cultural heritage and council charges.

DEVELOPMENT CONTRIBUTIONS PL AN (DCP)- set out payments or in-kind works, facilities or services provided by developers towards the supply of infrastructure required to meet the future needs of a planned community. These plans are known asInfrastructure Contributions Plans (ICP) in Melbourne.

S173 - a Section 173 Agreement is a contract between the Council and a landowner or other parties made under Section 173 of the Planning and Environment Act1987. It can set out requirements in relation to the use and development of land.

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INTRODUCTION

WHAT IS A SETTLEMENT STRATEGY?• Plans for growth based on an analysis of population

and housing data• Sets out directions for spatial distribution of future

growth• Provides a framework for planning for growth

including infrastructure provision, staging and sequencing of land releases.

• Supports the inclusion of a settlement and housing policy in the Planning Scheme.

WHY PREPARE A SETTLEMENT STRATEGY?• To ensure adequate housing is provided to service

our growing population and help address housing affordability

• To provide certainty to communities and the development industry on preferred growth locations both in established areas and planned growth areas.

• To ensure forward planning is carried out for future services, infrastructure, transport, facilities etc

HOW IS A SETTLEMENT STRATEGY PREPARED?• Council has engaged specialist consultants Spatial

Economics to prepare a Settlement Strategy for Greater Geelong.

• A series of Discussion Papers have been prepared by the consultants which will inform the preparation of a draft Settlement Strategy.

NEXT STEPS

• The Discussion Papers include detailed research and analysis on six key topics and are available to view separately, topics include:

1. Population Growth Scenarios;2. Background to Population Scenarios;3. Population Trends and Drivers of Housing Demand;4. Residential Dwelling Stock;5. Residential Land Supply and Development; and6. Land Supply and Housing Affordability.

The Discussion Papers are available to download atww w . g e e l on g a u s t r a li a . c o m . a u / y o u r s a y

WHAT IS THE PUBLIC CONSULTATION ISSUES PAPER?Council Officers have prepared an issues paper to assist discussion as part of this initial public consultation.The issues paper aims to summarise and simplify some of the key findings raised in the Spatial Economics Discussion Papers along with some of the key planning themes that influence housing and settlement policy. Throughout the issues paper questions have been posed which may assist with preparing a submissionin response to the Discussion Papers. Submissions will inform the preparation of a draft Settlement Strategy.

URBAN GEELONG AND BELLARINE PENINSULA GEOGRAPHIC AREASFor the purposes of the Settlement Strategy and discussion papers the Geelong municipality has been divided into Urban Geelong and the Bellarine Peninsula (see map over page). Where data is available it is also presented at an SA2 or township / suburb level.

L ATE 2016/ EARLY 2017

JUL - AUG2017

SEPT - NOV2017

DEC 2017 - FEB 2018

APR2018

MID2018

MID2019

BACKGROUND PAPERS

PREPARED

PUBLIC CONSULTATION

ONDISCUSSION

PAPERS

PREPARE STRATEGY

PUBLIC CONSULTATION

ONDRAFT

SETTLEMENT STRATEGY

ADOPTION OF SETTLEMENT

STRATEGY

COMMENCE PLANNING

SCHEME AMENDMENT

AMENDMENT COMPLETED

AND STRATEGY FORMS PART

OF PLANNING SCHEME

WE ARE HERE

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northern growth frontlara

northerngrowth area

western growth area

portarlington

urban geelong drysdale/

clifton springs st leonards

leopold

armstrong creek growth area

barwon heads

ocean grove

point lonsdale

MAP 1 - GEOGRAPHIC AREA MAP

geelong

Bellarine Peninsula

settlement Boundaries

freeways

n

0 1 2 4 6Km

major roads

major future growth areas

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OUR FUTURE

The City is currently finalising the ‘Our Future’ project. This project involved developing a long term community vision for Greater Geelong.After a 9 month program of community consultation with over 15,000 conversations the community led vision is:

By 2047, Greater Geelong will be internationally recognised as a clever and creative city-region that is forward looking, enterprising and adaptive, and cares for its people and environment.

A clever and creative city-region:

• promotes research, innovation, design, science, technology, arts and culture;

• has a global outlook and is connected to the world by communications technology;

• is economically viable, environmentally sound and socially responsible;

• provides an environment where young people are encouraged to learn;

• promotes quality education and applied research;

• encourages its workforce to up-skill and provides skilled employment opportunities;

• explores ways to minimise its environmental footprint;

• harnesses the community’s imagination and turns ideas into reality.

Creating high amenity neighbourhoods that are well connected and sustainable which provide for a range of housing and lifestyle options at competitive prices will be a key component of delivering a clever and creative city-region.

The final Settlement Strategy will need to explore the spatial policy response to growth in response to the Our Future aspirations.

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POLICYFRAMEWORK

The Settlement Strategy is being prepared in the context of State and Local planning policy which provide key directions for settlement planning.Relevant State strategies for regional Victoria include:

• Limiting urban sprawl and directing growth into existing settlements, promoting and capitalising on opportunities for urban renewal and infill redevelopment.

• Encouraging the development of compact urban areas which are based around existing or planned activity centres to maximise accessibility to facilities and services.

• Responding to changing community needs and facilitating timely provision of, and access to, social infrastructure and services.

• Ensuring development respects and enhances the scenic amenity, landscape features and view corridors of each settlement.

• Encouraging high-quality urban and architectural design which respects the heritage, character and identity of each settlement.

• Ensuring that the potential of land that may be required for future urban expansion is not compromised.

• Improving the availability of a diverse range of affordable accommodation, including social housing, in regional cities and locations with good accessto transport, commercial facilities and community services.

PLAN MELBOURNEPlan Melbourne is a metropolitan planning strategy that defines the future shape of the city and state over the next 35 years. In relation to Regional Victoria key outcomes include:

• Establishing growth frameworks to support housing growth including urban renewal and infill opportunities and implementing township boundaries to manage growth.

Support councils plan for growth and identify infrastructure upgrades.

VICTORIA’S 30 YEAR INFRASTRUCTURE STRATEGYThis strategy provides a state wide 30 year infrastructure plan. It sets out initiatives to be delivered over the next three decades to help create the best possible future for the state. A relevant recommendation includes:

• Increase the proportion of housing in areas that are well serviced with infrastructure (intensify medium density housing in targeted locations)

G21 REGIONAL GROWTH PLANKey directions set out for the G21 region include:

• Support key district towns across the region providing services to surrounding areas.

• Maintain a significant settlement break between the region and Melbourne.

• Provide for settlement breaks between towns to maintain their unique identities.

• Require a settlement boundary for all towns.• Provide a range of housing types with a mix of infill

and greenfield options.• Provide for long term growth options that build

on existing infrastructure, including two further investigation areas north and west of Geelong.

A summary of the existing planning framework and future infrastructure items for Greater Geelong are shown on Map 2.

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SUSTAINABLE SETTLEMENTS

One of the objectives of the Settlement Strategy is to achieve a more sustainable settlement pattern.SUSTAINABILIT Y IN SETTLEMENT AND HOUSING PL ANNING

Almost all settlement and housing strategies make reference to improving the sustainability of the urban environment. This is expressed in many different ways but some of the more popular examples include:

• 10 or 15 minute city – ability to reach most ofyour daily needs within a 10/15 minute walk or ride including well serviced local centres.

• Smart growth – concentrates growth in compact urban centres with a mix of building types and uses and diverse housing and transport optionsaimed at reducing pressure on outward expansion.

• Transit orientated development (TOD) – creation of compact, walkable, pedestrian-oriented, mixed- use communities centered around high quality public transport and reducing the need for a private vehicle.

• New urbanism - based on centuries old principles of cities and town including walkable streets, housing close to local centres, accessible public spaces and a focus on human scale urban design.

• One planet living – incorporates the 10 principles of health and happiness, equity and local economy, culture and community, land use and wildlife, sustainable water, local and sustainable food, sustainable materials, sustainable transport,zero waste and zero carbon into decision making in community planning. Geelong is one of six accredited one planet councils in Australia.

ELEMENTS OF SUSTAINABLE SETTLEMENTThere are many elements that make settlements more sustainable but some of the key features include:

• Reducing private vehicle dependence - as we become more populated increasing congestion and fuel prices can impact on productivity and quality of life. Being able to access some or all of your daily needs including access to education and employment by walking, cycling and public transport.

• Improving public transport services - this includes planning for the physical network (routes, stopsetc) and providing adequate services (clean, comfortable, frequent, timely etc). While increased population densities will contribute to making services more viable, equally important is offering a service that encourages patronage.

• Increasing housing densities and diversity - concentrating higher and medium development around local centres with services and facilities increasing accessibility to all age groups and abilities.

• Mixed land uses - utilising flexible zoning that combines residential, commercial, employment, schools, social services, public institutions instead of zoning for single purposes.

• Green space - poviding green spaces for passive and active recreation, protection of environmental values, water cycle management

• Efficient provision, expansion and management of infrastructure - the cost of providing infrastructureis generally the same regardless of how many homes or people benefit from it. Research shows the cost to supply new infrastructure to growth areas is morethan utilising existing infrastructure in existing areas.

• Sustainable building stock - that reduces energy and water consumption.

The Settlement Strategy will consider how Greater Geelong can continue to provide for strong growth while minimising environmental impacts, maintaining what is valued about living in Geelong and the lifestyle options it provides and delivering well serviced andconnected communities.

PUBLIC TRANSPORT, INCREASING THE DIVERSITY OFHOUSING IN TARGETED LOCATIONS?

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FIGURE 1 - MIXED USES IN BETTER PL ACES AND MORE AMENIT Y

Often we assume that in order to maximise the density of different uses, we have to build in large blocks. In this design, uses are separated resulting in monotonous spaces lacking in public realm and vibrancy.

However, it is entirely possible to mix types of use within each block without any loss of density. In doing so, greater diversity and vibrancy can be achieved.

The method of the fine grain, mixed-use spaces also increase the amount of public realm and walking/ cycling options.

Source: RobertsDay

QUESTIONGREATER GEELONG IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG GROWTH, HOW CAN THIS GROWTH BE ACCOMMODATED MORE SUSTAINABLY IN THE LONGER TERM E.G. TOOLS TO MANAGE THE LOCATION AND DIRECTION OF GROWTH, SET DENSITY TARGETS, MORE

VICTORIA (%) CITY OF GREATER GEELONG (%)

2011-12 1.7 1.12012-13 1.8 1.52013-14 1.8 1.62014-15 1.8 2.02015-16 2.1 2.4

ERP

(per

sons

) Ti

tle

PUBLIC TRANSPORT, INCREASING THE DIVERSITY OFHOUSING IN TARGETED LOCATIONS?

POPULATION

Understanding population trends and the drivers of demand are critical to producing meaningful population projection scenarios. Growth and development trends help builda picture of the current situation which can then assist with decisions about the future settlement pattern.

For more information on Greater Geelong’s population and demographics see Background to Population Projections Discussion Paper 2 and Population Trends and Drivers of Demand Discussion Paper 3 prepared by Spatial Economics.

CURRENT POPULATION AND GROWTH RATEThe most recent estimate of the City of GreaterGeelong’s population is 235,340 people at 30 June 2016.

This represents 2.4 per cent growth or an additional5,600 people from the 30 June 2015 figure. The growth rate of Victoria for 2015-16 was 2.1 per cent.

TABLE 1 - RECENT POPUL ATION GROWTH RATES: GREATER GEELONG AND VICTORIA

GEELONG POPULATION SNAPSHOT• Greater Geelong is one of the fastest growing

regions in Victoria with stronger population growth than all other regional municipalities combined.

• The fastest growing areas within Geelong are those with greenfield land including Armstrong Creek, Leopold, Curlewis, Ocean Grove, Lara and Highton.

• The established suburbs and townships provide significant residential infill development levels, around 35 per cent, which is relatively high for a non-metropolitan council.

• There is State Government support for population growth in rural and regional Victoria both to spread the benefits of economic growth and to reduce pressure on Melbourne

Source: Spatial Economics

The population growth rate for Geelong in 2015-16 isnot quite at the levels of the growth areas in Melbourne, but is amongst the fastest growing in Regional Victoria.

FIGURE 2 - GREATER GEELONG LGA ANNUAL ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPUL ATION 2006-2016

240,000

230,000

220,000

210,000

200,000

190,000

• State and Federal Government influences will continue to see strong population growth in Victoria

180,0002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012r 2013r 2014r 2015r 2016p

Year (r = revised, p = preliminary)

with the greater Melbourne region (and thereforeGeelong) being a key attractor.

• Geelong will continue to be a the major population attractor due to its proximity to Melbourne, proximity to beaches, service and employment nodes, the range of housing products and lifestyle options (rural, coastal, small town, suburban, regional city) and the housing cost advantage compared to Melbourne.

Source: ABS 3218.0 Regional Population Growth,Australia, Mar 2017

The Settlement Strategy will consider four population growth scenarios. These scenarios are outlined on page 35 of this paper and in more detail in Growth Scenarios Discussion Paper 1.

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RESIDENTIAL SALES ACTIVITYAlongside the locational, lifestyle, service and employment attributes driving growth in Greater Geelong there is also the affordability factor.

Compared to Melbourne, Geelong house prices are relatively affordable. Pricing shows the Wyndham area is a major competitor in the western growth corridorof Melbourne.

• Average dwelling sales for Geelong since 2007 is5,500 per annum

• Geelong’s median lot price in 2015 was $185,000 (Melbourne $220,000, Wyndham $223,000)

• Geelong’s median house price in 2016 was $402,000 (Melbourne $600,000, Wyndham $400,000)

• Geelong’s median unit/townhouse in 2015 was$312,000 (Melbourne $482,000, Wyndham$300,000)

Greenfield land supply and lot prices are a major factor (although not the only significant factor) in determining the cost of new housing. The Settlement Strategy will aim to address housing affordability into the future and thecompetitiveness of the greenfield market will be crucial to put downward pressure on land and housing prices.

POPULATION GROWTH THROUGHOUT GREATER GEELONGThe areas with the strongest population growth are those areas with greenfield land releases.

TABLE 2 - POPUL ATION GROWTH

POPULATION 1991 POPULATION 2016 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 1991 - 2015

ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 2010 - 2016

BELMONT 14,574 14,360 -0.1% 0.6%

CORIO NORLANE

28,251 26,885 -0.3% 0.3%

GEELONG 13,155 12,842 -0.2% 0.7%

GEELONG WEST HAMLYN HEIGHTS

18,795 19,985 0.4% 0.8%

GROVEDALE 12,461 23,829 4.4% 3.4%

HIGHTON 12,599 22,242 3.9% 2.3%

LARA 10,644 17,990 3.6% 2.6%

LEOPOLD 5,282 12,464 5.9% 4.0%

NEWCOMB MOOLAP

13,673 15,077 0.7% 0.2%

NEWTOWN 10,273 10,502 0.2% 0.9%

NORTH GEELONG BELL PARK

14,426 15,264 0.4% 1.1%

CLIFTON SPRINGS 8,432 13,255 3.1% 2.2%

OCEAN GROVE BARWON HEADS

12,928 22,447 3.8% 3.6%

PORTARLINGTON 5,078 7,358 2.5% 2.1%

Source: ABS 3218.0 historical and current data

AGE STRUCTUREThe age structure for the various towns and suburbs across Greater Geelong show ‘normal’ patterns fora municipality as large and diverse as ours. The age structures reflect the different roles and functions of the townships including the family orientated greenfieldestates and the seaside townships popular with retirees.

TABLE 3- AGE STRUCTURE, BY TOWNS, GREATER GEELONG, 2006 - 2011

PROPORTION OF POPULATION IN 20110-17 YEAR OLDS 18-34 YEAR OLDS 35-64 YEAR OLDS 65+ YEAR OLDS

BATESFORD 34.2% 15.4% 42.5% 7.9%

CLIFTON SPRINGS AND DRYSDALE

23.2% 17.9% 39.0% 19.9%

GEELONG 22.4% 22.9% 38.7% 16.0%

INDENTED HEAD 19.1% 12.4% 41.3% 27.1%

LARA 28.1% 21.4% 39.9% 10.5%

LEOPOLD 25.2% 20.7% 38.9% 15.1%

OCEAN GROVE, BARWON HEADS

25.2% 16.6% 43.2% 14.9%

PORTARLINGTON 15.4% 10.6% 40.3% 33.7%

ST LEONARDS 18.3% 11.4% 43.1% 27.2%

RURAL BALANCE - GREATER GEELONG (C)

19.9% 19.5% 42.9% 17.7%

Source: Towns in Time 2011 Database, DPCD

QUESTIONHOW IMPORTANT IS IT FOR GEELONG TO KEEP LAND PRICES DOWN EVEN IF THIS MEANS WE COMPETE WITH THE WESTERN GROWTH CORRIDOR OF MELBOURNE (AREAS SUCH AS WYNDHAM)AND ATTRACT MORE NEW RESIDENTS?

LOT SUPPLYAND DIVERSITY

An analysis of lot supply and housing data helps us understand the current trends in land development and the housing market.

For more detailed information on lot supply andhousing refer to discussion papers ‘Residential Dwelling Stock Discussion Paper 4’ & ‘Residential Land Supply and Development Discussion Paper 5’ prepared by Spatial Economics.

LOT SUPPLY SNAPSHOTFrom 2006-2016 the average building approvals per annum was 2,020. Of these 88 per cent of building approvals were single detached houses.

Dispersed infill since 2006 has contributed 27 per cent of all net additional dwellings. This is important in the context of reducing pressure for fringe development,

increasing dwelling diversity and the efficient use of existing infrastructure.

The typical density of dispersed infill development sites pre-development was 800sqm and 316sqm post development. This equates to each infill development providing a net additional 2.5 dwellings post development.

To date Geelong has seen little activity in high density construction.

Average lot construction from 2006-2016 was 1,800 consisting of:

• 65 per cent broad hectare (greenfield / new estates)

• 27 per cent dispersed infill (unit development yielding less than 10 dwellings)

• 8 per cent major infill (unit development yielding greater than 10 dwellings)

• 1 per cent rural residential

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Residential lot construction at a sub-regional/township level over the last 5.5 years was concentrated within:

• established areas of Urban Geelong 757 lots per annum (34 per cent of total activity)• Armstrong Creek Growth Area 548 lots per annum (25 per cent of total activity)• Drysdale/Clifton Springs/Curlewis 243 lots per annum (11 per cent of total activity)• Ocean Grove 167 lots per annum (8 per cent of total activity)• Leopold 162 lots per annum (7 per cent of total activity)• Lara 114 lots per annum (5 per cent of total activity)

The Bellarine Peninsula has contributed a 34 per cent share of residential lot construction in the last 5.5 years.

PLANNED GROWTHGreater Geelong has an existing planning framework which directs growth to identified locations.

The current framework provides for the future provision of approximately 83,000 additional dwellings (including investigation areas that are not yet not zoned or require a precinct structure plan for residential development). This capacity is comprised of:

• 40,000 unzoned broad-hectare lots (48 per cent of supply);

• 36,400 zoned broad-hectare lots (44 per cent of supply);

• 5,550 dwellings from major redevelopment sites (7 per cent of supply); and

• 824 lots from major infill (i.e. remnant broad-hectare)sites (1 per cent of supply).

This does not include capacity within the existing urban areas to accommodate dispersed infill development (i.e. projects that yield less than 10 dwellings). Dispersed infill since 2006 has contributed 27 per cent of all net additional dwellings.

In terms of zoned residential land stocks:

• the Bellarine Peninsula accounts for 21 per cent (or9,000 lots) of the total identified supply

• ‘urban Geelong’ which has 79 per cent (34,000 lots) of the total identified supply.

The zoned residential supply within the Bellarine Peninsula is primarily located within Ocean Grove (3,500 lots)and Curlewis (2,100 lots). Within ‘urban Geelong’ the zoned residential supply is primarily located within the Armstrong Creek Growth Area (18,000 lots) and Lara (5,300 lots). The balance of the zoned supply (10,000 lots) is widely distributed throughout the established urban area of Geelong.

Given Geelong’s size and significant greenfield land stocks this will likely remain the dominant form of residential development to 2036.

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LOT DIVERSITYCurrently 52.8 per cent of all lots in the municipalityare between 500-800sqm with urban Geelong having a higher percent of smaller lots (<500) and the Bellarine having a higher percent of larger lots (>800sqm).

Recent trends show increases in the construction of

smaller lots, sized 300-500sqm with a smaller proportion of larger lots constructed i.e. greater than 600sqm.

Greenfield median lot sizes have decreased from 646sqm in 2007/08 to 476sqm in 2015/16 (-26 per cent)

Lot size diversity is narrowing with lots sized 400-500sqm increasing from 18 per cent to 32 per cent over 2.5 years. Lots 600sqm+ declined from 34 per cent to 16 per cent in2.5 yrs.

LOT DENSIT Y TRENDS AND IMPLICATIONSState Government policy currently requires a minimum residential density of 15 dwellings per hectare in all new greenfield growth areas. There are no densitytargets for existing residential areas.

Greater Geelong’s Housing Diversity Strategy sets out the following density descriptions, however, these are not used as targets:

• High density - 40+ dwellings per hectare

• Medium density - 20 to 40 dwellings per hectare

• Conventional density – 10 to 15 dwellings per hectare

It is interesting to note research by the HeartFoundation recommends: “a net density threshold of20 dwellings per hectare” to encourage walkability and “densities of between 35-43 net and 32-40 gross dwellings per hectare (based on occupancies of 2.6 persons/dwelling) .. to make amenities and public transport viable”.

The residential building industry, particularly in greenfield locations, historically provide a uniform suburban product of separate dwellings. To meet increasing density targets in these locations, and to keep prices down, the most common response is reducing lot sizes while still delivering detachedfamily homes. This product rollout is often described as ‘market driven’ but with so little product diversity available this expressed demand may not reflect the underlying demand. The same property market drivers apply in established urban areas resulting in similar challenges and a lack of diversity in smaller dwelling stock.

This is starting to change with increasing land and development costs, changing demographics and consumer demand which means different forms of medium and higher density housing should be part of the product mix offered all areas and should be pursued as part of the Settlement Strategy.

WHY IS DENSIT Y IMPORTANT?Considering density is important for a number of reasons:

• More efficient use of land. Increasing housing densities in existing and planned suburbs reduces the pressure to continually expand into farmland.

• Diversity of housing. Different housing densities can relate to different housing types. An increasein singles and couples with no children households means the single detached 3-4 bedroom houses that traditionally dominate our suburbs and new estates might not meet everyone’s needs.

• Housing affordability. Increasing housing density and diversity has the potential to provide housing at a range of price points.

• Provision of services. Higher densities of housing (and potentially people) can make service provision more efficient.

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WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ‘URBAN SPRAWL’ AND WELL PL ANNED COMMUNITIES?

Sprawl typified by:

• Low density, low diversity tract subdivisions

• Car dependent transport systems

• Lack of connectivity

• Functional segregation and isolating land uses

• Generic looking

• Longer travel times for employment, schools, activities.

Well planned communities should encompass

• Connected sustainable open space including passive and active spaces

• Ways to reduce car trips – walkable and bikeable communities

• Higher concentration of mixed use developments

• Diverse range of housing types, sizes and prices

• Access to employment, education, commercial, recreation etc

• Opportunity to take part in community life

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ACHIEVING DENSITYInfill DevelopmentDensity can be achieved in a variety of ways as the images below show. A large subdivision in a greenfield location would traditionally achieve a net residential density of 15 houses per hectare made up entirely of low or conventional density. However, this could also be achieved using a mix of conventional, medium and higher densities also shown below.

FIGURE 7 - DIFFERENT METHODS TO ACHIEVE DENSIT Y

Source: Andrew Wright Associates

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FIGURE 8 - MIXED DENSIT Y VERSUS BL ANKET DENSIT Y

MIX OF DENSITIES CREATES DIFFERENT CHARACTERS

BLANKET DENSITY CONTROL CREATES MONOCULTURE

40 dw/ha 14 dw/ha

Overall net density15 dwellings per hectare

15 dw/ha

Target net density15 dwellings per hectare

10 dw/ha 20 dw/ha 15 dw/ha

QUESTIONHOW CAN WE CREATE MORE SUSTAINABLEGREENFIELD MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITIES?

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HIGH DENSITY INDIVIDUAL DWELLING DENSITY IS LESS THAN 100 SQM. COMMONLY WALK-UP FLATS AND APARTMENTS

MEDIUM DENSITY INDIVIDUAL DWELLING DENSITY IS BETWEEN 100 TO 250 SQM. COMMONLY ATTACHED ONE OR TWO STORY UNITS

COMPACT SUBURBAN DWELLINGS

INDIVIDUAL DWELLINGS 250 SQM TO 400 SQM. CONSIDERED SMALL SUBURBAN LOTS, BUT WITH DETACHED DWELLINGS

SUBURBAN DWELLINGS

SUBURBAN DWELLINGS 400 SQM TO750 SQM

LOW DENSITY SUBURBAN

GREATER THAN 750 SQM CONSIDERED LARGE LOTS, BUT STILL WITHIN SUBURBAN AND TOWNSHIP AREAS

RURAL RESIDENTIAL

INCLUDES ALL DWELLINGS LOCATED ON LAND THAT IS ZONED LOW DENSITY RESIDENTIAL (LDRZ) OR RURAL LIVING (RLZ)

RURAL CONSERVATION

INCLUDES ALL DWELLINGS LOCATED ON LAND THAT IS ZONED RURAL CONSERVATION (RCZ)

FARM INCLUDES ALL DWELLINGS LOCATED ON LAND THAT IS ZONED FARM (FZ)

HOUSING

A detailed analysis of housing stock has been completed indicating trends in construction and development within the City. These trends are important in the context of the Settlement Strategy to understand how the housing market can meet the demand of a growing and ageing population.

HOUSING DESCRIPTIONSAs noted above the Geelong housing market is dominated by single detached housing which is categorised as ‘suburban’ and ‘compact suburban’ housing, see below.

TABLE 4 - HOUSING AND DENSIT Y CATEGORIES

For more detailed information on housing refer to discussion papers ‘Residential Dwelling Stock Discussion Paper 4’, ‘Residential Land Supply and Development Discussion Paper 5’ and ‘Land Supply and housingAffordability Paper 6’ prepared by Spatial Economics.

HOUSING SNAPSHOT•S i n g l e d

housing stock

• Multiple houses in the form on townhouses, units, terraces are classified ‘medium density’ and make up 14.3 per cent of total housing

• Apartment buildings are classified ‘high density’ and make up 0.4 per cent of total housing

As expected there are higher levels of high and medium density development in urban Geelong (~13 per cent) compared with the Bellarine (~5 per cent) and lower levels of low density/rural residential in urban Geelong (17.6 per cent) compared to the Bellarine (27 per cent) Source: Spatial Economics

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INCREASING HOUSING DIVERSITY IN GEELONGHousing diversity means there is a variety of housing types available in an area to cater for a variety of residents needs at various times in their life. Diversity means a mix of houses, units, townhouses and apartments. With almost 85 per cent of Geelong’s housing stock consisting of suburban detached ‘family homes’ increasing housing diversity will be a key factor in addressing housing need in the future.

The benefits of a diverse housing market include:

• Opportunity to age in place in your existing community/neighbourhood

• A family can “move up” without moving away—say, from a townhouse to a single-family home.

• Young adults looking to move out or empty nesters looking to downsize can stay in the same area

• Providing a broad socio economic mix in communities due to different price points for different housing types

• More diverse communities are more sustainable in the long term as they are able to maintain a range of services and facilities useful to all age groups.

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ACHIEVING HOUSING DIVERSIT Y IN GREATER GEELONGHigher densities are encouraged in activity centres and medium density housing around activity centres. In established suburbs a more incremental changeis expected with medium density (compatible with the scale of family homes) scattered throughout low density neighbourhoods with greater respect for neighbourhood character. This is based on the Housing Diversity Strategy prepared in 2007 and policies supporting this currently exist in the Planning Scheme.

FIGURE 10 - HOUSING DIVERSITY EXPLANATION IMAGE

ACTIVITY CENTRE COREWhere: Commercial core of an activity centre or transport hub.Typical Density: Higher density mixed use.

INCREASED HOUSING DIVERSITY AREAWhere: Most residential areas within a 400m or 800m walking distance of the edge of an Activity Centre Core. Typical Density: A mix of medium and conventional density housing.

INCREMENTAL CHANGE AREA Where: All residential areas that are not definded as increased Housing Diveristy Areas or Key Development Areas.Typical Density: Primarily conventional density housing.

Source: City of Greater Geelong Housing Diversity Strategy

Higher density infill development is a major opportunity in Greater Geelong as land values increase, traveltimes from the fringe increase and consumers balance the benefits of smaller houses in prime amenity locations. Geelong has seen little activity in high density construction to date. This is largely due to inner Geelong prices not meeting a level to justify development costs. This is expected to change over time as seen in middle suburbs of metro Melbourne.

The current planning framework identifies Central Geelong, West Fyans and Fyans Street and vacant land around the Waurn Ponds Shopping Centre for high density housing. These areas are known as ‘Key Development Areas’.

DENSIT Y DONE WELLThe need for and benefits of increased residential densities applies equally to existing and master planned communities. Introducing medium density housingto existing neighbourhoods can be more problematic as there is an established character and resident expectations. In greenfield planned communities this can be alleviated to some extent as potential residents will have a greater understanding of future land use and development plans upfront.

In order for medium and high density housing to be embraced by communities it needs to be done well. This means good designs achieving a high level of amenityfor future residents and being appropriate for the site and neighbourhood. In a development density is only one design measure and should not be considered in isolation. In order for density to be done well other factors need to be considered:

• House size and site coverage

• Provision of public parks and other green spaces

• Architectural design and build quality

• Street trees and trees in private gardens

• The ‘feel’ of a place

• How people move around (walking, cycling, public transport, private car)

• Access to services, infrastructure and facilities

Increasing density needs to be considered with all the design factors mentioned above.

Over 25 per cent of Geelong’s new housing supply currently comes from small scale medium density developments in established suburbs. The challenge for the future is to maintain community support by ensuring high quality design outcomes are achieved.

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QUESTIONSHOW CAN WE ENCOURAGE HOUSING DIVERSITY IN OUR EXISTING TOWNS AND SUBURBS AND MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITIES?

IS THE CURRENT POLICY SETTING DIRECTING INCREASED HOUSING DIVERSITY TO TARGETED LOCATIONS RIGHT?

WHAT ARE THE KEY OPPORTUNITIES AN INFILL HOUSING IN GREATER GEELONG

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THE BELLARINE PENINSULAOf the current stock in Greater Geelong, over 96 per cent of dwellings constructed before 1940 are in urban Geelong, while just 3.8 per cent are in the Bellarine Peninsula. After 1960 this ratio began to shift significantly so that by the end of 2015, just over 27 per cent of dwelling stock in Greater Geelong is in the Bellarine Peninsula.

The strong growth since the 1960s has varied by location across Bellarine Peninsula, but has mostly been focussed in the main townships of Ocean Grove (over7,500 dwellings), Drysdale/Clifton Springs (over 5,400 dwellings) and Leopold (over 4,700 dwellings).

TABLE 5 - DWELLING STOCK BY REGION BY TIME PERIOD (PRE-1940 TO 2015)

REGION/TIME PERIOD PRE 1940 1940 TO1960

1960 TO1980

1980 TO1990

1990 TO2000

2000 TO2010

2010 TO2015

GRAND TOTAL

GEELONG 7,200 9,325 23,451 9,036 8,369 10,620 7,946 76,375

SHARE OF COGG 96.2% 90.3% 76.7% 64.7% 67.3% 64.3% 62.2% 72.9%

BELLARINE PENINSULA 281 1,007 7,116 4,936 4,066 5,895 4,836 28,347

SHARE OF COGG 3.8% 9.7% 23.3% 35.3% 32.7% 35.7% 37.8% 27.1%

Source: City of Greater Geelong c/o Spatial Economics

FIGURE 11 - CUMUL ATIVE BELL ARINE PENINSUL A DWELLING STOCK BY SELECTED LOCATION BY TIME PERIOD (PRE-1940 TO 2015)

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

Ocean Grove

Drysdale/Clifton Springs

Leopold

Portarlington

Barwon Heads

Point Lonsdale

2,000

1,000

pre 1940 Up to 1960 Up to 1980 Up to 1990 Up to 2000 Up to 2010 Up to 2015

Source: City of Greater Geelong c/o Spatial Economics

The proportion of ‘suburban’ lots are about the same on the Bellarine Peninsula as in urban Geelong. This also suggests the nature and role of the BellarinePeninsula is changing.

TABLE 6 - DWELLING STOCK BY REGION BY TIME PERIOD (PRE-1940 TO 2015)

AREA BELLARINE PENINSULA URBAN GEELONGTYPE NUMBER PROPORTION NUMBER PROPORTIONHIGH DENSITY 177 0.6% 2,423 3.2%MEDIUM DENSITY 1,226 4.3% 7,557 9.9%COMPACT SUBURBAN 2,546 9.0% 9,138 12.0%SUBURBAN 15,649 55.2% 42,509 55.7%LOW DENSITY SUBURBAN 6,427 22.7% 11,622 15.2%RURAL RESIDENTIAL 1,227 4.3% 1,797 2.4%RURAL CONSERVATION 32 0.1% 84 0.1%FARM 1,063 3.7% 1,245 1.6%TOTAL 28,347 100.0% 76,375 100.0%

Source: City of Greater Geelong c/o Spatial Economics

Census data shows most of the coastal towns on the Bellarine Peninsula have relatively older populations (full-time residents, not the holiday makers). Populations aged 65+ in Indented Head27.1 per cent, Portarlington 33.7 per cent and St Leonards 27.2 per cent all follow this pattern. These townships also have very low proportions of young adults with the highest being just 12.4 per cent at Indented Head.

Ocean Grove / Barwon Heads bucks this trend, with 14.9 per cent of the population aged 65 and over, this age structure is much closer to that of Geelong. This is in line with its dual role of seaside resort town and ex-urban commuter suburb. Leopold and Clifton Springs / Drysdale both have age structures similar to Geelong, although Clifton Springs / Drysdale, further down the Bellarine Peninsula does have a higher proportion of 65+ year olds (19.9 per cent) but not nearly as high as the other, older Bellarine townships.

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The occupancy rates also indicate changing trends on the Bellarine Peninsula with the major district townsof Ocean Grove and Drysdale/Clifton Springs showing occupancy rates closer to that of Geelong. This furtherindicates these towns are serving as largely full time

residential and commuter towns. In comparison to the smaller traditional holiday townships of Portarlington, Indented Head and St Leonards which have much lower occupancy rates consistent with the roles of the towns.

TABLE 7 - DWELLING OCCUPANCY BY TOWN, GREATER GEELONG, 2016

% OCCUPIED DWELLINGS 2011

% UNOCCUPIED DWELLINGS 2011

BATESFORD 93.4% 6.6%

CLIFTON SPRINGS AND DRYSDALE 89.1% 10.9%

GEELONG 86.5% 13.5%

INDENTED HEAD 39.3% 60.7%

LARA 93.4% 6.6%

LEOPOLD 91.5% 8.5%

OCEAN GROVE, BARWON HEADS 70.6% 29.4%

PORTARLINGTON 57.1% 42.9%

ST LEONARDS 40.9% 59.1%

Source: ABS Census 2016

RURAL ENVIRONSThe rural areas in and around the City are highly valued for their contribution to the economy, liveability and amenity of the municipality. There are long standing policies in relation to rural areas including:

• protecting agricultural land for agricultural uses

• ensuring that rural areas provide an attractive setting through the preservation of the rural landscape character

• protecting and enhancing the Bellarine Peninsula as a productive rural area with highly significant landscapes based on farming and environmental features

• discouraging urban development outside settlement boundaries

• limiting rural living development to existing precincts

• prevent further subdivision and medium density housing in Breamlea

• directing growth to designated growth areas

The Settlement Strategy will need to consider the role of the Bellarine Peninsula and rural areas is establishing a sustainable settlement pattern for the City.

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QUESTIONTHE BELLARINE PENINSULA HAS PROVIDED A GREATER SHARE OF HOUSING SUPPLY IN THE MUNICIPALITY OVER TIME, SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE INDEFINITELY?

HOW WOULD THE CONTINUED OUTWARD EXPANSION OF TOWNS ON THE BELLARINE PENINSULA AFFECT THE AGRICULTURA TOURISM ECONOMY AND THE AESTHELANDSCAPE VALUES (COASTAL AND RU THE AREA?

SHOULD WE CONTINUE TO DISCOURAG THE PROVISION OF RURAL RESIDENTIA LAND (RURAL LIVING ZONE) ACROSS T MUNICIPALITY?

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FUTURE GROWTH

In order to plan for future growth there is a need to project the future population and plan for housing accordingly. To facilitate discussion four growth scenarios have been developed based on population data and various assumptionsFor more detailed information on the future growth scenarios refer to discussion paper ‘Population GrowthScenarios Paper 1’ prepared by Spatial Economics.

Developing projections always comes with a level of uncertainty. Flexibility is required to deal with this uncertainty. This includes ‘leaning’ on the side of higher growth which provides the ability to meet any unexpected upturns in demand and planningfor diversity of supply in a number of locations. TheSettlement Strategy will aim to address these matters.

GROWTH SCENARIOSPopulation projections rarely reflect actual population growth. The purpose of projections is to guide us to what the future might be like as a tool to help us plan for it. For the purpose of the Settlement Strategythe projections provided are based on the following scenarios:

• a Long Term Historic growth scenario where a region maintains its long term lower growth rates (useful for comparative purposes);

• Current/Official projections available in the public arena (effectively the current VIF and id consulting projection);

• a Strong Growth scenario based on current and long term trends as well as incorporating the most recent higher rates of growth; and

• a G21 Aspirational Growth scenario, in line with the G21 Aspirational growth rate and reflecting the potential for the rising growth trend to continue and the potential of increased ‘leakage’ of growth from Melbourne.

Based on these scenarios a population growth rate has been determined using data on population, households and dwellings (see Discussion Paper 1 – GrowthScenarios for more detail)

TABLE 8 - SCENARIO GROWTH RATES

LONG TERM HISTORIC

CURRENT / OFFICIAL STRONG GROWTH G21ASPIRATIONAL

POPULATION GROWTH RATE

1.3% 1.6% 2.0% 2.5%

Source: Spatial economics

The scenario growth rates can then be applied to lot and land supply data to provide a picture of residential land availability and years of available supply.

PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE – PROJECTED LOT SUPPLYBased on the projected population growth scenarios the following dwelling requirements have been estimated:

TABLE 9- POPUL ATION GROWTH RATES BASED ON FUTURE GROWTH SCENARIOS

LONG TERM

HISTORIC

CURRENT / OFFICIAL

STRONG GROWTH

G21ASPIRATIONAL

POPULATION GROWTH RATE

1.3% 1.6% 2.0% 2.5%

DWELLING GROWTH RATE

1.5% 1.7% 2.2% 2.7%

TOTAL DWELLING REQUIREMENT

34,381 40,235 54,158 70,159

AVERAGE ANNUAL DWELLING REQUIREMENT

1,810 2,118 2,850 3,693

Source: Spatial economics

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36

Dw

ellin

gs/L

ots

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016 20

17

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025 20

26

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

DEMAND FOR DWELLINGS COMPARED WITH HISTORIC ACTIVITY

FIGIRE 12 - HISTORIC AND PROJECTED DEMAND SCENARIOS FOR RESIDENTIAL DWELLINGS 2006 - 2036

4,500

4,000

Historical Activity Growth Scenarios

2.5%

3,500

3,000

2.0%

2,500

2,0001.6%

1.3%

1,500

1,000

500

Building ApprovalsBuilding Approvals (5.5 year average) Lots ConstructionLots Construction (5.5 year average)

0

Source: Spatial economics

Using the growth rates in conjunction with current and proposed residential land supplies provides a picture of lot supply in years. As noted earlier 74 per cent ofGeelong’s dwelling requirements are met from greenfield and major infill development. For the purposes of calculating land supply these trends are assumed to remain the same.

In terms of total broad-hectare and major infill land supply (both zoned and unzoned) Geelong has approximately 21 years land supply under the Strong Growth Scenario. This would decline to 16 yearsof supply if the highest (2.5 per cent per annum)population growth scenario eventuates.

The inclusion of both the Northern and WesternGeelong Growth Areas (NWGGA) provides between13 - 25 years of additional supply depending on the growth scenario. An additional 17 years of supply is provided under the Strong Growth Scenario.

Existing land supply and future growth area totals indicates there is 29 – 57 years of supply currently identified. This equates to 38 years based on the Strong Growth Scenario.

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Dw

ellin

gs/L

ots

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

FUTURE LAND RELEASESBeyond the current developing growth areas there are the two ‘Further Investigation Areas’ (FIA) identified to accommodate medium to longer term growth in the G21Regional Growth Plan.

The ‘Further Investigation Areas’ are undergoing preliminary planning as part of the Northern and Western Geelong Growth Areas (NWGGA) project. An Integrated Infrastructure Delivery Plan (IIDP) and a Framework Plan for each area is currently being prepared. This work will:

• establish a framework for the delivery of sustainable, liveable communities in both growth areas

• identify civil and social infrastructure requirements

• inform Council and landowners about the infrastructure requirements and orderly land use planning necessary to support development in these areas

• detail the financial implications for Council arising from the development of these areas

Under the Strong Growth and G21 Aspirational Scenarios(which are comparable to current rates of growth) thereis between 14-18 years land supply with an approved PSP or Development Plan in place. In addition, the strategic planning for future growth areas is underway to ensure that the City is well placed to respond to varying growth scenarios.

FIGURE 13 - ESTIMATED YEARS OF BROAD-HECTARE/MA JOR INFILL RESIDENTIAL L AND SUPPLY, 201790,000

80,000

70,000

Supply (lots) - Zoned, Potential & Investigation Areas60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

Supply (lots) - Zoned + Potential Supply 2.5%

2.0%

1.6%

1.3%

20,000

10,000Population Growth Scenarios

0

Source: Spatial Economics

QUESTIONDO YOU AGREE THAT COUNCIL SHOULD USE THE‘STRONG GROWTH’ AND ‘ASPIRATIONAL GROWTH’ SCENARIOS AS THE BASIS FOR PLANNING TO MEET FUTURE HOUSING NEEDS.

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INFRASTRUCTUREPROVISION

Delivering sustainable, well serviced and connected new communities requires significant financial investment from both the public and private sector. When people develop land for any use, they often contribute to or cause the need for new or upgraded infrastructure.There a currently a number of funding mechanisms (Development Contributions Plan (DCP) and Voluntary Section 173 Agreements) available to the City toassist with infrastructure delivery. A new system of Infrastructure Contributions Plans (ICPs) for regional areas is currently being prepared by the State Government, this will eventually replace the DCP

system.

INFRASTRUCTURE DELIVERYInfrastructure delivery includes:

• Local infrastructure which directly services thelocal community (for example a community centre). This is typically built by a Council and the costsare fully recouped through the collection of a DCP over the time that the land is developed for housing. Councils’ often borrow money to build these facilities and the interest on the loan is never recovered by the council.

• Larger scale infrastructure which may serve multiple communities or a broader region, such as road intersections or regional sporting facilities. Theseare paid for by Councils and the costs are not always fully recouped through a DCP or in some cases are not funded at all.

The City currently uses a combination of these toolsto assist with infrastructure provision in growth areas. As it stands with the approved DCPs the City has a current funding gap of more than $20 million, this will need to be delivered over the next 15-20 years. In addition there is a significant funding shortfall for the provision of regional facilities such as libraries, aquatic centres and regional sporting facilities to support growth areas. This short fall is potentially in the order of $100 million.

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This significant funding gap has implications on the City’s ability to fund projects within existingneighbourhoods as it must balance the needs of both new and existing areas.

SEQUENCING DEVELOPMENTDevelopment should be planned in an orderly sequence. Out of sequence development has the potential to impact upon the servicing of other areas and the ability to deliver infrastructure in a efficient and cost effective manner.

Given Greater Geelong is already well served by existing greenfield development in Armstrong Creek, Lara and townships on the Bellarine, considerations to bringon the Northern and Western Geelong Growth Areas(NWGGA) sooner rather than later are:

• The need to release land for housing based on the current lot supply and projected demand

• The financial impact on council to provide infrastructure for existing and new communities

• Providing competition through multiple growth fronts that may assist managing affordability

QUESTIONSSHOULD THE CITY’S ABILITY TO ADEQUATELY FUND INFRASTRUCTURE, FACILITIES AND SERVICES IN A TIMELY MANNER BE A DETERMINING FACTOR ON THE TIMING AND SEQUENCING OF FUTURE LAND RELEASES?

SHOULD NEW RESIDENTS BE REQUIRED TO WAIT FOR INFRASTRUCTURE, SERVICES AND FACILITIES IN MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITIES?

• The ability of State Government to adequately service the growth areas in a timely manner, which is even more critical in Greater Geelong giventhe absence of a Growth Area Infrastructure Contribution (GAIC), which is applicable to Melbourne growth areas for contributions to state infrastructure

• The ability for the City to provide regional and local infrastructure across multiple growth fronts concurrently.

The Settlement Strategy will provide a policy context and framework for the consideration of future land releases.

WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS OF RELEASIN ADDITIONAL NEW GROWTH FRONTS?

SHOULD FUNDING INFRASTRUCTURE FACILITIES UPGRADES IN EXISTING AR WHERE INCREASED HOUSING DIVERSI ENCOURAGED BE AN EQUAL PRIORITY FUNDING NEW GROWTH AREAS?

HAVE YOUR SAY

HELP SHAPE THE FUTURE OF HOUSING IN OUR CIT YTell us what you think are the key issues facing the region when planning for housing needs.

COMPLETE THE FEEDBACK SURVEY

Online: visit ww w . g e e l on g a u s t r a li a . c o m . a u / y o u r s a y to make an online submission

In writing: send a written submission to

Planning StrategyCity of Greater GeelongPO Box 104GEELONG VIC 3220

Or email: p l a n n in g s t ra t e g y @ g e e l on g c i t y . v i c . g o v . a u

SUBMISSIONS CLOSE: 1 SEPTEMBER 2017

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