+

VCSD Strategic Plan

Enrollment and Staffing Levels

+Topics Covered in this Presentation We will review the student enrollment data for the district from

2000 to 2014

We will review the number of teachers and instructional support staff

We will draw some inferences from the data presented

The source for this data is the New York State Education Department School Report Cards (this data was originally submitted by VCSD to NYSED) – data is from the fall (early October) of each year

We will also review enrollment projections based on current enrollment and projections from the NYS Rural Schools Association and the Capital District Regional Planning Commission

+District Enrollment 2000 - 2015

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20141050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1306 13041292

1268 12721277

1260

1225 1225

1191

1207

1194

1170 11741168

K-12 Enrollment

+District Enrollment Trends

Voorheesville School District enrollment has declined 10.6% from 2000 to 2014

In the 15 school years in that range, year to year enrollment has declined in 11 of those years, increased slightly (0.3% twice and 0.4%) in 3 years, and remained constant in one year

The sharpest decreases year to year were in 2007 and 2009, when enrollment declined by 2.8% in each of those years

The % changes year to year in the past 3 years were -2.0 %, +0.3%, and -0.5%

+Voorheesville Elementary

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

K-5 Enroll-ment

525 505 512 500 513 518 549 537 535 523 530 503 500 495 494

465

475

485

495

505

515

525

535

545

555

Voorheesville K-5 Enrollment 2000 - 2014

ES E

nro

llm

ent

+Elementary Enrollment Trends

VES Enrollment has declined 5.9% from 2000 – 2014

Peak ES enrollment in the period was 2006 – 549 students

Lowest enrollment in the period was 2014 – 494 students

The ES experienced declining enrollment in 10 of the years

The ES experienced increasing enrollment in 5 of the years

Elementary enrollment has declined less steeply than overall district enrollment, and less steeply than the other 2 buildings

+Voorheesville Middle School

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

6-8 Enrollment 351 344 332 299 285 288 280 284 289 290 292 298 287 289 273

25

75

125

175

225

275

325

375

Voorheesville 6-8 Enrollment 2000 - 2014

MS E

nro

llm

ent

+Middle School Enrollment Trends

Middle School enrollment has declined 22% over the period of 2000 to 2014

Peak enrollment in the period was 2000 – 351 students

Lowest enrollment in the period was 2014 – 273 students

Middle School enrollment declined in 9 of the years in the period

Middle School enrollment increased in the 6 of the years in the period

Middle School has experienced the steepest decline in enrollment in the district

+High School Enrollment

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

9-12 Enrollment 430 455 448 469 474 471 431 404 401 378 385 393 383 390 401

25

75

125

175

225

275

325

375

425

475

Voorheesville High School Enrollment 2000 - 2014

HS E

nro

llment

+High School Enrollment Trends

High School enrollment declined 6.7% from 2000 to 2014

The peak HS enrollment was in 2004 – 474 students

The lowest HS enrollment was in 2009 – 378 students

HS enrollment declined in 9 of the years

HS enrollment increased in 6 of the years

HS enrollment increased slightly in the last two years of the period (2013 and 2014)

HS decline in enrollment has been less steep than that of the district as a whole

+Total Enrollment by Grade

Grade 2014 2015Kdg 78 711st 65 752nd 96 633rd 66 984th 102 665th 87 1026th 82 877th 96 848th 95 969th 109 9910th 96 10911th 97 9612th 99 97K-12 Enrollment 1168 1143

+Impacts of Declining Enrollment

Declining enrollment is prevalent throughout upstate NY, and it has several impacts:

Decreases district revenues due to state aid being tied to enrollment

May cause difficult choices to be made regarding reductions in staff

May cause reductions in available programs for students due to staff and program cuts

May cause decreased class size if staffing is not cut

+Projecting Future Enrollment

We will look first at the community demographic data

We can estimate enrollment for incoming kindergartners

We can promote each grade each year to project future enrollment in each grade

There are inherent unknowns such as

Who will move in and who will move out of the district

Who will choose private schools

+Total Community Population

1990 2000 2010 2020 projected 2030 projected

total population 9139 8626 8648 8797 8987

8350

8450

8550

8650

8750

8850

8950

9050

9150

Total Population Voorheesville and New Scot-land 1990 - 2030

Axis Title

+Population under 5 years old

1990 2000 2010 2020 projected 2030 projected

under 5 611 477 414 364 365

50

150

250

350

450

550

650

Voorheesville and New ScotlandPopulation under 5 years old

Axis Title

+% change in under 5 population decade to decade

1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Voorheesville and New Scotland% change in under 5 population

% change under 5

+Total Enrollment Projection

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Rural Schools Projected 1143 1136 1124 1116 1110 1116

1095

1105

1115

1125

1135

1145

Voorheesville K-12 EnrollmentRural Schools Projection

Tota

l Enro

llm

ent

+Indications from Enrollment Projections

The population of children under 5 years old has declined significantly for the past 25 years, but now appears to be leveling off

The district’s K-12 enrollment is projected to stabilize at just over 1100 students in 2021 (as compared to 1150 in 2015)

The district will experience shifts in enrollment from grade to grade as larger and smaller classes move from one grade to the next

We need a pre-school census to determine more precisely how enrollment shifts will impact the district – we are conducting the preschool census now

+Class Sizes and Staffing Levels Based on the data from School Report Cards

from 2000-2015, class sizes on average have been quite stable overall, averaging 21 students per class at the elementary and middle levels

There have been some staff reductions, but in general those have not increased class sizes

Because our grade level enrollments vary from the 60s to 100 plus per grade level, shifting staff from grade to grade has been necessary, and class sizes are not always even

+Conclusions Regarding Enrollment

Enrollment has declined significantly in the past 20 years

Total enrollment is projected to stabilize within the next few years

We will do a regular pre-school census so that we can anticipate future enrollment changes

We will need to shift staff assignments to some degree in the future to accommodate fluctuations in enrollments from grade to grade