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The New Craft of Intelligence:How “State” Should Lead

Robert David Steele<bear@oss.net>

A Nation’s best defense is an educated citizenry. Thomas Jefferson

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9-11: Systemic Failure

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9-11 Commission

• Let’s forget the past. It is what it was.

• Let’s focus on the future. We can do better, starting now.

• What matters most is that we change our mind-set about who does what,and why. That is my focus.

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World War III Players

H o m o S ap ie ns vs. B ac te ria G o ve rn m e nts vs. G a n gs C itize ns vs . C o rp ora tio ns

E d uca tio n vs . Ca tas trop heBacteria

Nation-States

Gangs

Private Sector

Citizens

Mother EarthWater-Air-Green

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The National Budget:Truth-Teller About Our Priorities

Too much of:• Military heavy metal

• Technical collection

Not enough of:• Humans on ground

• Human expert analysis

• Technical processing

• State & local intelligence

• Public health, water, etc.

0

5 0

1 0 0

1 5 0

2 0 0

2 5 0

3 0 0

3 5 0

U S A A l l i e s R u s s i a C h i n a R o g u e s

M i l i t a r y D i p l o m a c y H o m e F r o n t

The real budget is the real policy.

Citizens must vote and provide constant oversight if the taxpayer

dollar is to be spent wisely.

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Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman

Conflict Facts for 200223 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC

Pol Terror Level 3Imprisonment, executions

Pol Terror Level 4Large numbers, torture

Pol Terror Level 5Entire public, no limits

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Ethnic Fault Lines 200018 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today

Source: Dr. Greg Stanton

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Water & War

Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53

Hyper-Arid

Sub-Humid

Arid

Semi-Arid

Water Pollution

1

2

34

5

6

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Global Threats to Local Survival

*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002

Complex Emergencies32 Countries

Refugees/Displaced66 Countries

Food Security33 Countries

Child Soldiers41 Countries

Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising

Water Scarcity &Contaminated Water**Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today**

Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution**

Corruption Common80 Countries

Censorship Very High62 Countries

10

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PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURETunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers

ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTUREPower, Financial, Comms, Transportation

MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELSOff-base power, down-links, antennas

ECONOMIC BLAHSNo Fly No Spend No Hire

DATACorruption

Public Health

Home Front Weaknesses

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Four Different Threats to America:Require Four Different Security Approaches

PHYSICAL

STEALTH,

PRECISION

TARGETING

NATURAL

STEALTH,

RANDOM

TARGETING

CYBER -

STEALTH,

DATABASE

TARGETING

IDEO -

STEALTH,

MASS

TARGETING

GUERRILLAWAR

CULTURALWAR

HIGH TECH

BRUTES

(BIG WAR)

LOW TECH

BRUTES

(GANGS)

HIGH TECH

SEERS

(HOME)

LOW TECH

SEERS

(POOR)

MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS

POWER BASE

KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY

TERRORISMECONOMICWAR

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1 0 %

5 0 %

2 5 %

1 5 %

S t a t e v s S t a t e

S t a t e v s N a t i o n

I n t e r - E t h n i c T r i b a l

G a n g W a r s , G e n o c i d e ,D e c o l o n i z a t i o n

Taxpayer Dollars Focused on Just 10% of the Threat

®We’re in a Six-Front 100-Year War of Our Own Making.

I am worried that America may lose the moral high ground.

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Modern Presidential LeadershipPresidentCongress Judiciary

Chief of Staff

Director-General forNational Policy

Director-General forGlobal Strategy

Director-General forNational Intelligence

Director-General forNational Research

Director of ClassifiedIntelligence (DCI)

Chairman, NationalIntelligence Council

Director, Global Knowledge Foundation