Solar in Minnesota:Great Promise

John FarrellInstitute for Local Self-Reliance

Presentation to Solar MinnesotaMinneapolis| April 25, 2011

@ the Institute for Local Self-Reliance

Who We Are

Energy Self-Reliant States

Community Banking Initiative

Overview

• State of Solar in Minnesota• Opportunities for Cost Reductions• The Value of Solar• Policy Matters

A Small but Growing Market

• Installed Capacity: 4 MW• Installed in 2010: 1.8 MW – 45%

Photo credit: CERTs

Minnesota Solar = Expensive?

From page 19 of the brilliant report, Tracking the Sun III: The Installed Cost of Photovoltaics in the U.S. from 1998-2009 (large pdf).

Cost of Solar != Market Size

Solar PV Costs - Does State Market Size Matter? | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/4ypjblp

Opportunities for Cost Reductions

4 years

40% PRICE D

ROP!

German solar market 2006 -> 2010 grew from 2.7 GW -> 16 GW

Opportunities for Cost Reductions

German solar market 2006 -> 2010 grew from 2.7 GW -> 16 GW

$4.11 per Watt!

Opportunities for Cost Reductions

$5.65

$4.80

$5.70

$5.09$5.50

$4.78

$4.67$5.20$5.39 $5.50

Installed Cost for Residential Solar PV Group Purchase

$ per Watt

Opportunities for Cost Reductions

Solar PV Balance of System | Rocky Mountain Institute - http://tinyurl.com/3dazuo8

60% drop in PV cost

5 years

The Value of Distributed Solar

Distributed Solar Power Worth Far More Than Electrons | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/3tqmerh

The Value of Distributed Solar

Distributed Solar Power Worth Far More Than Electrons | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/3tqmerh

The Value of Solar

Distributed Solar Power Worth Far More Than Electrons | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/3tqmerh

The Value of Solar

Solving Solar's Variability with More Solar | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/65b5nyh

RPS Policies with Solar/DG Provisions

Renewable portfolio standard with solar / distributed generation (DG) provision

Renewable portfolio goal with solar / distributed generation provision

www.dsireusa.org / April 2011

Solar water heating counts toward solar provision

WA: double credit for DG

NV: 1.5% solar x 2025;

2.4 - 2.45 multiplier for PV UT: 2.4

multiplierfor solar-electric

AZ: 4.5% DG x 2025

NM: 4% solar-electric x 2020 0.6% DG x 2020

TX: double credit for non-wind

(non-wind goal: 500 MW)

CO: 3.0% DG x 20201.5% customer-sited x

2020

MO: 0.3% solar-electric x 2021

MI: triple credit for solar- electric

OH: 0.5% solar-electric x 2025

NC: 0.2% solar

x 2018

MD: 2% PV x 2022 DC: 0.4% solar x 2020

NY: 0.4788% customer- sited x 2015

DE: 3.5% PV x 2026; triple credit for PV

NH: 0.3% solar- electric x 2014

NJ: 5,316 GWh solar- electric x 2026PA: 0.5% PV x 2021

MA: 400 MW PV x 2020

OR: 20 MW solar PV x 2020; double credit for PV

IL: 1.5% PV

x 2025WV:

various multipliers

16 states + DC have an RPS with solar/DG provisions

DC

Policy Matters: State Laws

Policy Matters: State Laws

Policy Matters: Local Rules

Poor Solar Permitting Rules Increase Residential Solar Prices by Up To 20 Percent | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/5ts5b2k

Policy Matters: Local Rules

Poor Solar Permitting Rules Increase Residential Solar Prices by Up To 20 Percent | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/5ts5b2k

Policy Matters: Local Rules

• Assessment of Mpls-St. Paul permitting:• Permit pricing is about 2x higher than ideal…

~$500 in Minneapolis and ~$800 in St Paul…Minneapolis has a terrific submittal guidelines …St. Paul does not.

• [Minneapolis] clearly states their expectations: I.E what you need to submit to succeed and obtain a permit.

Policy Matters

Ontario's Buy Local Renewable Energy Policy: An Update | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/3o4th8d

Policy Matters

Solar Could Save Minnesota Schools Millions | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/5sv8ond

Summary

• Minnesota’s small market has high costs• Promising cost reduction potential• Policy needed– State standard– CLEAN Contract (feed-in tariff)– Local permitting

Solar is Contagious | Energy Self-Reliant States- http://tinyurl.com/444c2og

Solar is Contagious

Solar is Contagious | Energy Self-Reliant States- http://tinyurl.com/444c2og

1%

Thank you!

John Farrell• energyselfreliantstates.org• jfarrell@ilsr.org• http

://twitter.com/johnffarrell