" Single CMO " Management Committee 26 August 2010

Franz Marc (1880 – 1916)

"Single CMO" Management Committee 26 August 2010

DG AGRI C4 22 July 2010 2

Development of the EU Pig Carcasses price

115

135

155

175

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€/100

kg

5 yr Avg (05-09) 2007 2008 2009 2010


Percentual change in Pig prices July 2010

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

BE BG CZDK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT LU HUMT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SV UK EU

Diffe

renc

e in

€uro

in %

-1 year- 1 month


Development of the EU Piglet price

25

35

45

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53

€/ p

iece

5 yr avg (05 - 09) 20072008 20092010 = 2010 * avg change


Relation between monthly pig slaughterings and weekly pig carcass prices 2008 - 2010

1 100

1 300

1 500

1 700

1 900

2 100

2008 2009 2010

Slau

ghte

r in

1000

T

105.00

115.00

125.00

135.00

145.00

155.00

165.00

175.00

Euro

/ 100

kg

(expected) Slaughter EU 27 PriceSource: EU Commission DG AGRI

NB: Monthly Slaughter 2009 & 2010 are estimates.


Change in Pig slaughter Jan - May 2010/2009Avg increase 3,0%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%be bg cz dk de ee ie gr es fr it cy lv lt lu hu mt nl at pl pt ro si sk fi se uk EU

in %

Jan = -2,6%Feb = +1,3%Mrz = +8,3%Apr = +4,0%Mai= +4,3% Hungarian and Polish slaughter is not only increased

production but also due to new official slaughter because of the opening of new and approved slaughterhouses


Brazilian Soybeans (BCE)nearby and future deliveries

19

22

25

28

| July |Aug.|Sept.|Oct.|Nov.|Dec.| Jan | Feb|Mrch| Apr |May|June| July |Aug| Sep | Oct |Nov|Dec|

BRR

/ 60k

g

Nearby = 20102010 11 Nov2011 03 Mar2011 05 May


Futures for Maize EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2009 - 2010)

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

| July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |

€/To

nn

01 Nearby2010 11 Nov2011 01 J an2011 08 Aug

Delivery:


Futures for Milling wheat EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2009 & 2010)

110

130

150

170

190

210

| July |Aug.|Sept.|Oct. |Nov.|Dec.| Jan |Feb |Mrch| Apr |May|June| July |Aug.| Sep | Oct |Nov | Dec|

€uro

/Ton

n

01 Nearby2010 Aug2010 Nov2011 Jan


TOEPFER weekly Cereal and Substitute prices 2008 - 2010week 34

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 3 8 13 18 23 28 33 38 43 48 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51

US$/T

FREIGHT Panamax soja beans USA soja pellets ARGCitrus p. Palm pitkernels EU maïs in US$C.G.F.


Weekly average Pigprices 2007 - 2010EU, Brazil and the US in Euro/ 100kg carcase

55.0

75.0

95.0

115.0

135.0

155.0

175.0

| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |

weeks EUUSBraz. avgCDN Quebeck

EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meatUS = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lbBR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)CDN= Quebeck index 100 (agr.gc.ca)


Pigprices in US and EU and forecastsEU forecast: Working group priceforecast pigmeat

US Forecast: Chicago Mercantile Exchange

70

95

120

145

170

195

| 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 |

€uro

/ 100

kg

EUUS


Weekly exchange rate US dollar 2006 - 2010

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

| 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 |

1 €uro = .......US$


Trade in Pigmeat


EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

Origins Comparedtonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to J an-J un 09

Switzerland 8 934 28% 10 476 24% 12 377 21% 17 240 33% 8 266 35% 5%Chile 7 568 23% 12 323 29% 17 142 29% 16 557 32% 4 871 21% -50%USA 5 380 17% 9 065 21% 21 532 36% 6 416 12% 4 682 20% 92%Croatia 3 930 12% 2 863 7% 3 965 7% 4 061 8% 2 351 10% 51%Canada 252 1% 2 660 6% 53 0% 340 1% 369 2% +++Serbia 523 2% 1 217 3% 1 181 2% 387 1% 182 1% -24%Russia 313 1% 280 1% 583 1% 1 641 3% 216 1% -82%Other 5 467 17% 4 295 10% 3 005 5% 5 020 10% 2 731 12%

EXTRA EU 25/27 32 368 43 179 59 838 51 662 23 667

% change + 33% + 39% - 14% - 11.3%

2006 2007 2008 Jan-Jun 102009


EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (Tonnes prod. weight)

11 808

2 434 4 682

7 711

9 743 4 871

5 448

7 899

1 020

2 949

5 053

8 266

2 478

29 81026 691

23 667

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

Jan-Jun 08 Jan-Jun 09 Jan-Jun 10

USA Chile SwitzerlandCroatia Argentina Other destinations

IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (1000 EUR)

26 169

5 94211 900

17 635

21 032 12 144

8 459

12 7827 885

57 034

45 441

38 384

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000


USA Chile SwitzerlandCroatia Argentina Other destinations


I mpor t s of sel ect ed PI G pr oduct s

0

1 500

3 000

4 500

6 000

|J an06

|J an07

|J an08

|J an09

|J an10

i n Tonnes ( pr oduct wei ght )

FRESH FROZEN FAT OTHERS


EU exports of selected PIG products:Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

DestinationsCompared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Jun 09

Russia 687 402 32.9% 647 052 33.9% 769 044 29.9% 760 880 31.9% 383 285 30.6% + 16%Hong Kong 138 554 6.6% 243 171 12.7% 462 299 18.0% 413 548 17.3% 210 005 16.8% + 14%Japan 249 380 11.9% 232 951 12.2% 236 609 9.2% 186 134 7.8% 112 455 9.0% + 13%China 53 785 2.6% 86 345 4.5% 147 951 5.8% 178 725 7.5% 84 783 6.8% + 5%Ukraine 9 789 0.5% 2 757 0.1% 189 001 7.4% 147 030 6.2% 56 738 4.5% - 32%South Korea 142 599 6.8% 137 421 7.2% 115 757 4.5% 95 163 4.0% 52 200 4.2% - 2%Philippines 23 321 1.1% 34 243 1.8% 40 912 1.6% 26 572 1.1% 44 810 3.6% +++USA 67 048 3.2% 66 472 3.5% 61 471 2.4% 55 495 2.3% 29 351 2.3% + 4%Croatia 56 785 2.7% 56 151 2.9% 63 426 2.5% 70 697 3.0% 28 534 2.3% - 6%Australia 29 579 1.4% 34 583 1.8% 45 621 1.8% 46 703 2.0% 25 545 2.0% + 10%Belarus 59 586 2.9% 10 509 0.5% 55 276 2.2% 28 369 1.2% 23 211 1.9% + 132%Angola 40 757 2.0% 48 637 2.5% 49 003 1.9% 45 424 1.9% 19 939 1.6% - 15%Other 530 778 25.4% 310 615 16.3% 332 719 13.0% 329 795 13.8% 179 716 14.4%EXTRA EU15-25-27 2 089 363 1 910 908 2 569 087 2 384 536 1 250 572

% change - 9% + 34% - 7% + 11.1%

2006 2007 2008 Jan-Jun 102009


EU exports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes prod. weight)

386 828 330 653 383 285

247 517183 522

210 005

112 455

376 006

377 425407 844

127 286

99 903

1 277 029

1 125 6691 250 572

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000


Tonn

es (p

rodu

ct w

eigh

t)

Russia Hong Kong ChinaJapan South Korea Other destinations

EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)

535 692 429 414 523 307

175 920193 478

371 069

663 831692 990

721 540

391 756349 942

1 987 1841 823 225

1 980 121

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000


1,00

0 EU

R

Russia Hong Kong ChinaJapan South Korea Other destinations


Exports of selected PIG products

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

|Jan06

|Jan07

|Jan08

|Jan09

|Jan10

in T

onne

s (p

rodu

ct w

eigh

t)

FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS


46 1

35

59 7

20

71 9

37

51 6

41

63 8

00

55 9

18

56 0

77

54 4

99

72 2

76

22 6

12

21 7

30

32 3

68

43 1

79

59 8

38

51 6

62

23 6

67

881

011

943

405

1 08

3 23

0

1 23

8 13

8 1 55

6 96

1

1 54

5 90

7

1 33

1 80

8

1 52

6 56

3

1 50

9 30

2

1 78

0 56

8

1 93

8 45

5

2 08

9 36

3

1 91

0 90

8

2 56

9 08

7

2 38

4 53

6

1 25

0 57

2

0

250 000

500 000

750 000

1 000 000

1 250 000

1 500 000

1 750 000

2 000 000

2 250 000

2 500 000

2 750 000

3 000 000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Jan-Jun 10

Tonn

es p

rodu

ct w

eigh

t

IMPORTS EXPORTS

EU trade of PIG products


Cumulated quantity of weekly requests

for Export licenses in the Pigmeat sector

for Gatt year 2010 - 2011

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Tonn

Cumulative quantity availablecumulative attributions

Documents

" Single CMO " Management Committee 26 August 2010