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Myths and Realities: Structural Change in
U.S. Labor Markets and the Great Recession
Peter B. DoeringerDepartment of Economics, Boston University
IILS Round Table on The Global Job Crisis: Emerging PerspectivesInternational Labour Office, Geneva, 22 February 2013
I am grateful to the Economic Policy Institute for making a number of graphics available from The State of Working America (12th Edition)
2
Symptoms of the Great Recession
Myth or Reality During the Great Recession
Public Policies and Priorities
3
Symptoms of the Great Recession
4
Unusual Job Losses
5
Unemployed Workers and Job Openings, By Industry, 2011 (in millions)
6
Long-term Unemployment, 1948–2011
38.1% January 2013
7
Myth or Reality During the Great Recession?
A university degree is no longer worth the investment
Women fared better than men in the recession
Good jobs have disappeared
Private welfare benefits are surviving; social safety nets have failed
8
A University Degree Is No Longer Worth the Investment
9
Pre-Recession College Earnings Advantage: Male Workers
200500800
110014001700200023002600
18 25 32 39 46 53 60
Wee
kly
Earn
ings
Age
Men
Some college
College Graduates
High school graduatesHigh school dropouts
10
Unemployment Rates Rising for College Graduates During the Recession
11
Entry-level Real Wages of College Graduates Falling Since 2002
12
Entry-level Real Wages of High School Graduates Falling Since 2001
13
College Wage Premiums Are Still Rising
14
Women Fared Better Than Men in the Recession
15
Unemployment Rates by Gender, 2000-2012
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
2
4
6
8
10
12
Male 16+Female 16+
16
Job Loss by Gender In the Great Recession (Dec. 2007–Dec. 2011)
17
Cumulative Change In Real Hourly Wages of
Women, by Wage Percentile, 1979–2011
18
Cumulative Change in Real Hourly Wages of Men, by Wage Percentile,
1979–2011
19
The Gender Wage Gap Continues to Narrow
1939 = 62%
1959 = 45%
1979 = 38%
1999 = 24%
2007 = 18%
2011 = 16%
20
Good Jobs Have Disappeared
21
Long-Duration Jobs (1983, 2008)Years with Current Employer
(wage & salary workers age 20+)
1983 200820+ years 9% 11%10+ years 27% 28%2 Years or Less 37% 34%
10+ Years, age 45-49 -- Men 58% 44% -- Women 33% 37%10+ Years, age 55-59 -- Men 66% 55% -- Women 51% 50%
22
“Good” Jobs As a Share of Total Employment, 1979–2010
[Schmitt and Jones, CEPR, 2012 ]
23
% Change in Employment Shares by Type of Job Duties, 1981-2011
[Jaimovich and Siu, The Trend is the Cycle, NBER Working Paper 18334, May 2012]
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Private Welfare Benefits Are Surviving; Social Safety Nets Have Failed
25
Share of Recent College Graduates With Employer Health/Pension Coverage, 1979–2010
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Share of Recent High School Graduates with Employer Health & Pension Coverage, 1979–2010
27
Share of Unemployed Receiving Unemployment Insurance Benefits, 1989-2011
28
Per Capita Social Security Expenditures and the Elderly Poverty Rate, 1959–2011
Public Policy?
Priorities: More jobs, less chronic unemployment, better jobs, less labor market polarization
Active Policies Better job matching Education and training Regional economic development and labor mobility Work-based transitions: School-to-work, Re-employment
Labor Market Regulation Minimum wages and employment standards Unions and collective bargaining policy Anti-discrimination policies Immigration policy Public sector employment and HR reforms
Full Employment 29
