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OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE & RELEVANT INFORMATION:

EXECUTIVE BRIEFING(CINC BRIEF)

Robert D. Steele, OSS CEO<bear@oss.net>

What’s on the other side of the hill?

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All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavor to find out what you don’t know by what you do; that’s what I called “guessing what was at the other side of the hill”.

Duke of Wellington quoted in John Wilson Croker, The Croker Papers (1884)

FOUR CORE IDEAS:

A-C Teams need OSINT in real-time.

IC is not in the OSINT business.

CINCs have to program for OSINT.

OSINT can make a difference in tactical effectiveness, operational planning, and acquisition management.

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OSINT DEFINITIONS

Open Source Data

Open Source Information

Open Source Intelligence

Validated Open Source Intelligence

Only the in-house analyst can do this.

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BURUNDI EXERCISE: 6 Phone Calls

Top Ten Journalists/Top Ten Academics

Tribal Orders of Battle and AOs

Pol-Mil Overviews

Soviet 1:100,000 Combat Charts

100% Commercial Imagery <3 Years Old

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COMPETING OSINT MODELS

SI/TK

Selective Importation

System High/Firewall

Just Enough, Just in Time

Default to Validated OSINT

SI/TK

Validated OSINT

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INFORMATION

TIME

Actionable Intelligence

The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use!

OSINT is as complex as the other disciplines…

NEW INTELLIGENCE GAP

Available Information

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HIC/MRC STRATEGIC NUCLEAR AND CONVENTIONAL

MILITARY WAR

SOLIC/LEA UNCONVENTIONAL

LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT AND GANG

WARFARE

IW/ECON INFORMATION WAR/ CRIME & ECONOMIC

ESPIONAGE

MINDWAR RELIGIOUS, POLITICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL

REFUGEES

PROLIFERATION/MIGRATION

JIHAD/ GREENPEACE

TERRORISM/ GLOBAL CRIME

INFOWAR/ ECONOMIC ESPIONAGE

FOUR THREAT/IO TYPES

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THOUGHTFUL OPINIONS“The Intelligence Community has to get used to the fact

that it no longer controls most of the information.”The Honorable Richard Kerr, former Deputy Director of Central Intelligence

“…(IC) should not satisfy requests for analysis when such analysis could be readily accomplished using publicly available sources…

Aspin-Brown Comission on Intelligence, page 17

You’re on your own!

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OSINT SUPPORT TO THE A TEAM

Strategic Planning

Operational Coordination

Tactical Employment

Acquisition Design

• History

• Context

• Current Awareness

• Key Personalities/Motivators

• Imagery & Image Maps

• Translation Support

• Strategic Generalizations

• Critical Technologies

OSINT AND THE CINC TODAY

IC limited in global coverage capability.

Fewer closed societies and denied areas.

IT revolution empowering operators.

OSINT can address 80% of mission area information requirements.

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FUSION

ANALYSIS

FILTERS

UN

IOs

NGOs

Business Community

Predictive Modeling

Internet

JTF

Embassy Host &

Adjacent Govts

Remote Sensing

®PACOM’S Virtual Information Center

J-8’s Idea!

Policy Intelligence

Military Intelligence

Law Enforcement Intelligence

Coalition Intelligence

Business Intelligence/OSINT

Mass & Niche Media Intelligence

Citizen Intelligence--Intelligence “Minuteman”

Basic, Advanced, & Corporate Education

LONG-TERM BUILDING BLOCKS

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Peacekeeping Intelligence

• “… the concept of UN intelligence promises to turn traditional principles on their heads. Intelligence will have to be based on information that is collected primarily by overt means, that is by methods that do not threaten the target state or group and do not compromise the integrity or impartiality of the UN.”

Hugh Smith as cited by

Sir David Ramsbotham

Balanced Coverage

Political-Legal

Socio-Economic

Ideo-Cultural

Techno-Demographic

Natural-Geographic

INFORMATION UNIVERSERelevant and Irrelevant -- Open and Secret

Decision-MakerIntegration, Reflection & Decision

RANDOM

SECRET

EXISTING INPUT

normal staff process,

counterparts, family/friends

OPEN SOURCEINPUT

Internet &private sector fee-for-service

Information Management StaffCollection Management, Fusion, Analysis & Presentation

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REQUIREMENTS OFFICER/ COLLECTION MANAGER

INTERNET SPECIALIST

COMMERCIAL ONLINE SPECIALIST

PRIMARY RESEARCH SPECIALIST

EXTERNAL SERVICESSPECIALIST

EDITOR/ANALYSTPRESENTATION MANAGER

Leverage!!!

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Crisis/Surge Support

Commercial Imagery

JOINT VISION

UN/NATO OSINT Network

Joint, CINC, Service Cells

DoD OSINT Training

DoD Internet Seeding

Embassy OSINT

OSINT Outsourcing

GENERIC OSINT BUDGET

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OSINT: THE CINC’S WILD CARD

Earmarked funding not available yet.

OSINT ConOps still lacking.

Robust private sector options are there.

CINC can leverage C4ISR JBC, JROC.

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