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宏观经济学 Macro-Economics. 董奋义 金融管理工程 博士学位 河南农业大学 副教授 企业管理专业 硕士生导师 Email: [email protected]. 导论. 宏观经济学研究的是社会公众普遍关注的现实问题。它与我们每个人的学习、生活与工作密切相关。. 导论. 宏观经济学是以国民经济总过程的活动为研究对象,为宏观经济健康运行提供科学调控理论依据和政策措施的经济学分支。 经济健康主要指 经济增长平稳 、就业充分、物价稳定、对外收支平衡等。. 导论. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Macro-Economics Email: [email protected]
1 2 3
12
1.2030GDP2.
1929-1933 1929-1933
GDP1. GNPgross national product GNI gross national income2. GDPgross domestic product(GDP) ()
3.GNPGDPGNPGDP.GDPGNPGNPGDPGNPGDPGNPGDP
4.12GDP34GDP
5. final product goods
6. Intermediate goods value added
GDPA.B.C.GDPA.B.C. GDP
1. expenditure approach final product approach C consumptionGDPGDPCIG(XM)1() 2 3()
Iinvestmentfixedinventory
replacement = = -
GGovernment purchase
XM net exportsXM
GDP(;%)
GDP197836062239(62.1)1378(38.2)-11.4(-0.3)19804593 3008(65.5) 1600(34.8) -14.7(-0.3) 198590775986(66.0)3458(38.1)-367.1(-4.1)19901934812091(62.5)6747(34.9)510.3(2.6)19956321736748(58.1)25470(40.3)998.6(1.6)20009874961516(62.3)34843(35.3)2390(2.4)200518713199051(52.9)77857(41.6)10223(5.5)2009345024165527(48.0)164464(47.7)15033(4.3)
2. income approach ----W+i+R+EGDP factor payment approachGDP+ 31 2 3
1() 2
3
13/173-15%
GDP
GDP2003135539.14 67260.69 21551.46 19362.42 27364.57 2002118020.6960099.1418493.7716573.1222854.642001106766.2654934.6516779.2815027.3620024.97200097209.3749948.0714972.4113760.2718528.61199987671.1345926.4313209.0411870.1716665.49199775606.4139860.6810365.119989.9915390.75199557632.7830453.777116.337407.3012655.38199225892.3112970.553331.733462.906127.13199121141.2611027.822606.082805.254702.11
3. production approach GDP
sector approach GDPGDP
GDP(;%)
GDP197836451028(28.2) 1745(47.9) 873(23.9) 381 198045461372(30.2)2192(48.2)982(21.6)463 198590162564(28.4)3867(42.9)2585(28.7)8581990186685062(27.1)7717(41.3)5888(31.6)164419956079412136(19.9)28680(47.2)19979(32.9)504620009921514945(15.1)45556(45.9)38714(39.0)7858200518493722420(12.1)87598(47.4)74919(40.5)14185200934050735226(10.3)157639(46.3)147642(43.4)255752010397983
4., 12GDP
5.123
1.NDP net domestic productsNDPGDPNDPGDPGDPNDPGDP
2.NInational incomeGDPNDPNI NDPNI
3. PIpersonal incomePI NI +
4. DPIdisposable personal incomeDPIDPICS DPI = GDP Z TDPI = PIZT
5.GDP NDP 80005000500300020003000250050020001500GDP=8000+5000+2500+2000-1500=16000NDP=16000-500=15500NI=15500-2000=13500PI=13500+500=14000 DPI=14000-3000-2000=13000NDP NI NI PI PI DPI
2010GDP(trillion US$)
Chart6
16.28
14.66
6.56
5.88
5.46
3.32
2.58
2.25
2.09
2.05
1.8
1.57
1.54
1.46
1.41
1.24
1.04
1.01
Sheet1
16.28
14.66
6.56
5.88
5.46
3.32
2.58
2.25
2.09
2.05
1.8
1.57
1.54
1.46
1.41
1.24
1.04
1.01
Sheet1
Sheet2
Sheet3
6.GDP GNPGDPGDPNIDPI
GDP177271884614451579921.30.3
1. GDPGDPGDPGDP()GDPGDPGDPGDPIPD Implicit Price DeflatorGDPGDP
2. CNPComprehensive National PowerGDP
1. GDP=NDPNIY=
GDPGDP = C + IGDP = C + SGDP = CIGDP = CS C+I=GDP=C+S I=S Y
I = SI = S i = s i = s = i < s < i > s >
2. YGDPY=C+I+G C+I+G = Y = C+S+T I+G = S+T I= S+T GT GY=C+S+TT=T0-Tr
3.YC+I+G+X-M (X-M)YC+S+T+Kr Kr C + I + G + (X-M) Y C + S + T + Kr I + G + (X-M) S + T + Kr I S +TG MKr X
13
1.122230GDPNDPNIPI4mp3
2.IU 0>0y>AEIU>0
3.E = yE = c + iy = c + sI = Sc + i = c + si = s
1.()()2.
cyc cy dc / dy 0 ycc=c(y)c=y450 A
c = a + by 1 b 0a-by-b-,
MPCMPCMPC11 > MPC > 0 marginal propensity to consume1MPC c/ y dc/dy1001208094 MPCc/ y 94-80/120-100 0.7
APCa = 0c = kyAPCMPC
4.
s-y-s = syds / dy 0c = a + bys = y - cs = y -a + bys = - a + (1-b) y 1b0s = y - c s = s y 0sy s= -a + 1 - b y0sy
5., APS average propensity to save/ APS = s / y1008020 APS =s / y = 0.2MPS marginal propensity to save1.MPS=s/y= ds/dy
MPS1001208094 MPS S/Y 26-20/120-100 0.3MPS1bMPSMPSAPSMPS>APSMPS
MPCAPC1.010.891.000.850.990.750.970.640.940.590.920.530.89
6.y = c + sY y/y = c/y + s/y APC + APS = 1 y = c + s yc,sA450c=c(y)y0a-as=s(y)RichPooryy/y = c/y +s/y MPC + MPS = 1:MPCMPS
yc,sA450c=c(y)y0a-as=s(y)y = c + s
7. 1 23
1. (James S.Duesenberry)
2. F.Modigliani12
1.iy = c + i , c = a + by.c1000+0.8y,i600yc,c+ic=1000 + 0.8yc=y450 1000 5000y(1000600)/10.8 8000cy-i8000-6007400 sy-c 8000-740060016008000c + iy = (a+i) /(1-b)
2.s = y c = -a + (1-b)ys -1000+(1-0.8)yi600 s = - 1000 + (1-0.8)y 6000-1000s,iy5000 8000i = s i = -a + (1-byy =( a+i)/(1-b) y(1000600)/(10.8)8000si=600y8000 s0y5000
1. y(1000i)/(10.8)i600y8000yc,c+ic=1000 + 0.8yc=y450 1000 500016008000c + i1c + i285001700i700y85001005005c10000.8y
100y11000.81008080y2 80800.864y364y1001000.81000.80.8....100 1/10.8500yc,c+ic=1000 + 0.8yc=y450 1000 500016008000c + i1c + i285001700y i100 100 100 80 80 64 64GDP
2.multiplier KKIC ADai yAD/(1b) a i by =( a+i)/(1-b)
bA.0.6B.0.4C.0.75
c=100+0.8yi=501280031001 y(10050)/(10.8)750c1000.8750700syc750700502 800750503100y100100/10.8)1000750250yyy1000750250
4 y10050/10.9)1500syc1500(1000.91500)1500145050100y100100/10.9)20001500500y 20001500500 4c=100+0.9yi5010055c1000.8yc1000.9y5(k1/(10.8)5)10(k1/(10.9)10)
1.NINIDPINI+
c a + by c a + byTtry DPIyTtrTtr
2.1 kgy/ggyg1g2y1y2
2
3ki4ktr
5 kb=1g =T
c=100+0.8yi=50g200tr62.5T25012312001231 y(100502000.862.50.8250)/(10.8) 10002b0.81/1b5 ,=5 4 ,4 ,13y1200 y 120010002001g y /k200/540 2T 200/450 3g T200
14 ISLMIS-LM
1.2.3.4. MEC5. MEI 6.q
1.
2.1423
3.iir di/dr 0 irie-dr ir%i= e dre er=0d
4. MEC Marginal Efficiency of Capital R0nRnrrRR1R2RnJr
5.MECMECiriMECr%
MEI Marginal Efficiency of investment MEIMEIMECMECiMEIMECr1r2MEIr%
IS1.IS2.IS3.IS4.IS5.IS
1.IS, i = sy = c + i c = a + by.y = (a+i) /1-bi= e-dr ISI investment Ssave
2.ISIS yISr%
3.IS1i=s23ISi=sIS4ISis
ISyr%y1isyyy3IS
c= 200+0.8yi = 300-5rISIS r = 100 - 0.04ya200 b0.8 e300 d5IS y=2500-25r
4.ISISIS yr%IS
5.ISdbISbdISddISdISd0ISbISbIS
31.12L1 = L1 y= k yL2 = L2r=whrrL2 = hr
0
2.
3.L = L1 + L2 = ky hrPL(ky-hr)PL(m)rL=L1+L2L(m)rL1=L1(y)L2=L2(y)
L(m)rL=L1+L2L(m)r
4.M1mrmm0 m1 m2
5.r1, >L(m)rLmEr1r0r2m1r2>m0m2> r0,
6. L(m)rL2mr1r2m0L0L1r0m1
2m0m1r0r1L(m)rLmr1m0 m1m2r0m1m2r1
7.Baumol W.J.
tcyr,
yQtcry/Qtc y/QQQQ/2rQ/2C tc y/Q + rQ/2dC/dQ- tc y/Q2+r/20Q2 2 tc y / r 3303015015
LM1.mm L L1(y) + L2(r)mL1L2L1L2L liquidity M money
2.LM m L L ky hr LMm ky hryrLMm/k m = 300 L = 0.2y - 5rLMLMy = 25r + 1500m = ky hr 300 0.2y - 5r
LMyrLMr1r2y1 ABE2E1y2LmLm
4.LMm/hm/kyrLMPMmLMMPm LMm/hm/km M/P MP1
2 LMLMLMLM LM
5.LMLMyrLMm/hm/khkkhLMk/h
6.LMLMk/h1h0LMyrLMr1r1
2 h0 r203yrLMr2r1
IS-LM1.ISLMr,y LMISyr Ey0r0
ISLMmry: i=1250-250r s=-500+0.5y m=1250 L=0.5y +1000-250r i=sy=3500-500r (IS) L=my=500+500r LMISLMy=2000,r=3
2.Ar2y1LMISr2LMISyrIS-LMEy0r0BAy1y2r2r1Br2y2ISLMy2>y1,AEBE
3.smiLLMISyrE
iMi>sL
4.yE y LMISyrEEEISLMyEyrEISISEE, LM LME EyEy*
1.
2. >
3.123
4.
15
yLMr1 r2yISr%r%
1.123
2.
GDP
1. 1234
ISr1/1-bg /1-br
3. Crowding out effectgLMy1y2y3y IS1IS2r%g /1-b -dr/(1-b) rLMIS
bkhd
LMISy0y2y1y3y IS2IS1IS3IS4r%
2ISLMLMLMISr4r1y1r2r3r5y2y3y4y5yLMIS1IS2IS3IS4IS5IS6LMhrr%
5.LMISIS1 IS2LM1 LM2y r0r%y1y2
LMISIS1 IS2LM1 LM2 r0IS0LM r%yy1y2
ISISIS LM1LM2y0r0r1r%y
1. y1y2yLM1LM2ISr%
y1y2yLM1LM2ISr%y3m/k hr/k r
3.ISLMIS LM1 LM2yr0IS0y1y2r%
ISIS2IS1LM1 LM2yr2r1r0y1r%
0LM IS2 IS1LM1 LM2r2r1r0yy1y2LM h0r%
4.1234
1.E0 ISr%yy0y2E1E0E2IS2IS1LM1LM2r2r1r0y1LM
2.ISLMr%yy0y2E1E0E2IS2IS1LM1LM2r2r1r0y1
( ) c 200 + 0.8y i 300 - 5r L 0.2y - 5r m 3001IS-LM1IS-LM:y 2500 25r , y 1500 + 25r y = 2000 , r = 20 22020
2Gi300 - 5r +GIS -200+0.2y=300-5r+GLMy 1500 + 25ry2000 + 2.5Gy2020G8Mm300 + MLM 300M0.2y-5r. ISy 2500 25ry2000 + 2.5My2020M8
3.
4. ISLMISLMLMLMISISISLMISISLMLM
ISLM
ISLMIS()00(0)0LM()0(0)00
5.
16
1. 2.
3.123
1.12
2.>>
3.
4. Automatic stabilizers123
5.
6.>>
7.
11 2 ():\ ():\ .
2 123
31 2
41 2 0 20%1000AA800B1000
A 1000 200 800B 800 160 640C 640 128 512D 512 102.4 409.6E 409.6 81.92 327.68F 327.68 65.54 262.14 5000 1000 4000
1000+ 1000(1-20%) + 1000(1-20%)2 +1000 (1-20%)3 +1000 (1-20%)4 + = 10001/1-0.8=5000rd=1/r
51(r). 2(e) 3(h)
119131
2 =1/
3
21 2 3
31234
12:1 23 41 212
17 AD-AS
1.AD Aggregate Demand ADCIG(XM)GDP
2.PmM /PMmP
y1y2yr% r1 r2 LM(P1) LM(P2)ISE1E2LM
3.AD LMr=ky/h - m/hLMr= ky /h - M/(Ph)P1M=Pmm=M/PISr=(a+e/d - (1-by/d
ADP1y1y1y2yP P1 P2y1y2yr% r1 r2 LM(P1) LM(P2)ISE1E2D1D2P2y2
4.yPAD ADISLM
5.
6.
7. ADADADADADADADADdkhb
ADADy1y2yP P1 y1y2yr r1 r2 LM(P1)IS1E1E2D1IS2D2ISAD
AS Aggregate supply 1.GDP2.yfNKNK
KyfNKN0Nyy0yfNK
3. N0NW/P(W/P)0(W/P)1N1()WW/P N0NW/P(W/P)0(W/P)1N1
1. 2.
3.yfyPP0P1AD0AD1E1E0AS
1.P1W/P1 N1 NW/P0N0 N2 ND NS W/P1W/P2W/PP2W/P2>W/P0N0N0>N2
2.Ly0yfyPP1P0E0E1yfyfAS
1.CPyAABBCEyfCCAABBCCCCCC
2.C1PyAABBEyfC2C1EC2
AD-AS1.
2.ADPyAD1E1yfASP1E2P2y2AD2AD
3. ASPyAD1E2yfP2AS1E1P1y2AS2E2Stagflation AS
y=2000+py=2400-p1210%310%1 y=2000+py=2400-py2200p2002240010%2160y=2160-py2080p803200010%1800y=1800py2100p300
18
Unemployment1.2.
3. 21 Full employment
4.12
1.
2.MPCMEC450AD1AD0NN2N1AD2YY2Y1Y=fNK3
3.1NDSWW*NEN*EEW *NEN * -NE
2NDSWWENEN*EW *N2N1 N2 N1 N2W*N1
1.1968ArtherOKun1322.52. 1GDPGDP2GDPGDP
1. Currency
2.CPIComsumer Price Index19938571997117419971174857137RPI Retail Sales Index
RPI
Chart2
0
0.02
0.0598039216
0.0240518039
0.0189701897
0.015070922
0.0279475983
0.0883602379
0.0601092896
0.0729013255
0.1853122855
0.1777649102
0.0211406096
0.028887819
0.0538137576
0.1318827709
0.2169478227
0.1479690522
0.0609379388
0.0079407094
-0.0259978992
-0.0299272041
-0.015008338
-0.0079006772
-0.0130830489
-0.0008645533
()100
Sheet3
1978=100100
197810000%
197910222%
1980108.16.16%
1981110.72.62%
1982112.82.12%
1983114.51.72%
1984117.73.23%
1985128.110.49%
1986135.87.76%
1987145.79.97%
1988172.72719%
1989203.430.718%
1990207.74.32%
1991213.763%
1992225.211.55%
1993254.929.713%
1994310.255.322%
1995356.145.915%
1996377.821.76%
1997380.831%
1998370.9-9.9-3%
1999359.8-11.1-3%
2000354.4-5.4-2%
2001351.6-2.8-1%
2002347.0-4.6-1%
2003346.7-0.3-0%
Sheet3
()100
3.10%10%-100%100
1. lnM+lnV=lnP+lnYtdM/M+dV/V=dp/P+dY/Ydp/P = dM/MdY/Y +dV/V MV=PY**
2. y PAD4 AD5ASAD1 AD2AD3
>PYASADfAD0AD1YfP0P1AD0AD1,Y0Y1 , P0P1YASAD0AD1YfP0P1Y0Y1P
3. yPP3P2P1 ADAS
1 23-
PYASAD0AD1P0P1YPP2P1ADAS2AS1
4.
1.
2. 3123
3. Monetary illusion 12
4. 1234567
1. Phillips curve195818611957W /Wt =f(Ut)
100uPC
3.u%%PCA44
21 -
1.Yt t Yt-1 (t-1)
2.FY=AFNKNKAYMRPN NMRPK KF(NK) AY=AF(NK) MRP
1.S=sY sn
2.Y=FN,KY=FN, K1/NNy Y/Nk K /N y fk F1, k ky0 Y/N =F1, K /N y fk
4.kyk0sy = (n+)kgnsy k+(n+)k+
C1k1kysy(n+)ky1sy k2y2C2
6.AkAky0sf(k)(n+)k12(n+)k
7.Y = C + IN Y/N = C/N + I/Nf(k)C/N k nkC/N = f(k) - k- nkY/N = f(k)I/N=K/N = k+ nk, f(k) = C/N + k+ nk, k f'(k) = n
ky(n+)kykyCk0 (n+)kMM'MM'MM'
8.Y=FAN,KAAN0A A
1231.
2. 123490
1.
1 2 3 4
2.11923 3.5218608~10319255041930205193950~6068~10401880~18421842~18971897
3.1234567
-1.- v =K/Y,KY,K>Yv>1 K =vY Kt=vYt Kt1=vYt-1t I t KtKt-1=vYt-1vYtvYtYt-1tvV
2.0