© GEO Secretariat

GEOGLAM Update

Monthly Wheat Prices 1960-2011($/Metric Ton)

Source: World Bank

Nominal wheat price in US $/metric Ton

2008 Price hikesDroughts: Australia &

Ukraine

2010/11 Price hikesDrought:

Russia

Landsat 1 Launched (1972)

1971/2’s price hike

Context for GEOGLAM

Assessment of Current Conditions in Northern Hemisphere Crop NDVI Anomaly, August 13th, 2012

-0.4 0 0.4Worse than

normalnormal Better than

normal

Crop NDVI Anomaly

USA

Russia

KazakhstanUkraine

China

India

Canada

anomalyanomaly

Russia, Orenburg

anomaly

anomaly

anomaly

Spring Wheat Spring Wheat Spring Wheat Winter Wheat/ CornCorn/Soy

Current season crop development (2012)Average season development (2000-2011)

Non CroplandNot shown

NDV

I

Comparing the 2012 Black Sea Region Drought to the 2010 Drought

Crop NDVI Anomaly During the 2010 Russian Drought: (July 17 2010)

2012 drought affecting crop production in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Bulgaria and Romania

Vegetation Anomaly during the 2010 Russian drought, when grain production decreased by 30%

Crop NDVI Anomaly July 17, 2012

Looking Forward

• Increasing pressures on agricultural land and production from:– Increased severe weather events and climate change– Population growth & Changing diets– Fuel vs. Food vs. Feed– Limited water and suitable arable land

• Higher price volatility for major grains• Crop yield variability is a main driver of short term changes in market equilibrium

• Weather/climatic effects on production are triggers for price hikes

• Commodity markets are increasingly linked (good and bad)• Rising fuel prices impact food prices (transport, fertilizer)

• NEED TO INCREASE GLOBAL PRODUCTION BY 70% BY 2050 TO MEET DEMAND (FAO)

Tools for monitoring and reliably forecasting production are essential for anticipating market imbalances and enhancing policy responses

Agriculture Faces Major Challenges in this Century

Need for Improved Agricultural Intelligence

International recognition of critical need for improved information including at the World Summit on Food Security

2009, G20 Action Plan on Food Price Volatility and Agriculture, 2011

official statement of The Extraordinary Joint Intersessional meeting of the Intergovernmental Group (IGG/FAO) on Grains, Rome 2010:

“Unexpected price hikes and volatility are amongstmajor threats to food security and their root causes

need to be addressed, in particular regarding the lackof reliable and up-to-date information on crop supply

and demand and export availability….”

The G20 Initiative: GEO-GLAM

The G20 Cannes Summit (November 2011) Action Plan on Food Price Volatility and Agriculture Reaffirmed GEOGLAM commitment at the 2012 G-20 Los Cabos Declaration & in Agriculture Ministers Report

To strengthen the international community’s capacity to produce and disseminate relevant, timely and accurate forecasts of agricultural production at national, regional and global scales through the use of EOOutcome: an improved and more harmonized systems of systems taking advantage of new satellite assets and a higher level of international coordination

G20 GEOGLAM Goal:

• GEO-GLAM will be implemented in the framework of GEO

1. GLOBAL/ REGIONAL SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS

Main producer countries, main crops

2. NATIONAL CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT

for agricultural monitoring using Earth Observation

3. MONITORING COUNTRIES AT RISK

Food security assessment

6. INFORMATION DISSEMINATION of Data and Products

5. METHOD IMPROVEMENT through R&D coordination

4. EO DATA COORDINATION (acquisition, availability, access)

The GEOGLAM Initiative: Project Elements

GEOGLAM Components• Component 1: Monitoring Global Producer Countries

– Focus: Global markets and trade, long term trends (climate change implications, extreme events etc)

• Component 2: National Monitoring Systems– Focus: National statistics, national policy, subsidies, insurance

• Component 3: Countries at Risk– Focus: Early warning & food security

• Component 4: Observations Coordination– Focus on acquisition, availability, access needed for GEOGLAM

implementation

• Component 5: R&D– Focus: Best practices, RTO (JECAM)

• Component 6: Information dissemination

• Goal: secure the data needed to implement GEOGLAM

• GEOGLAM has substantive observation data needs which underpin its implementation

• Approach: work in close partnership with CEOS to – Lay out the overall program observation requirements to

enable the necessary information products to be generated, building on the experience with FCT and GFOI

4. EO DATA COORDINATION (acquisition, availability, access)

Cropping systems are inherently diverse which dictates the monitoring observations and methods

Observation Strategy Components

• Where?– Priority given to G20 Producer Countries (main crops) and

Countries at Risk– Initial focus on Arable Lands and Major Crops –

subsequent expansion to pasture/rangelands • When?

– Growing season as defined by crop calendars• How often?

– Determined by crop calendars – emphasis on forecasting early in the growing season

– The need for cloud free observations impacts frequency– Microwave data acquisition for persistently cloudy areas

GEOGLAM CEOS Workshop• CSA hosted a CEOS-GEOGLAM user data

requirements workshop in June 2012 with representatives from both GEOGLAM and CEOS– Goal: to communicate the GEOGLAM data needs for

effective global agricultural monitoring and to and initiate a process by which those requirements can be translated into operational data acquisition

• Progress and meeting outcomes: to be presented in Yves Crevier presentation

The GEOGLAM Initiative: 2011-2012 ProgressInternational cooperation for the definition of GEOGLAM

- 09/2011 Geneva : First GEOGLAM international Workshop (13 countries)- 11/2011 Istanbul : GEO VI Plenary Assembly - 01/2012 Geneva : GEOGLAM coord. Group meeting - 02/2012 Rome : Present to the 1st meeting of the AMIS coord. Group- 02/2012 Canberra : International Workshop on crop monitoring- 03/2012 Mexico : Present. to XIIth “Foro de expectativas agropecuarias” - 03/2012 La Hoya : CEOS Strategic Implementation Team- 04/2012 Tokyo : GEOSS in the Asian Pacific Symposium- 4/2012 Mexico: G20 Ag Ministers preparation meeting- 4/2012 Italy: Sentinel 2 workshop- 5/2012 Geneva: GEO Workplan Meeting- 6/2012 Mexico City: Meeting with SIAP (Min of Ag)- 7/2012 Montreal: CEOS-GEOGLAM data requirements workshop- 9/2012 Buenos Aires: Regional Ag monitoring systems workshop- 10/2012 Beijing: Drought Monitoring Workshop

+ regional and national meetings and presentations

+ EU FP-7 Call for GEOGLAM proposal (Ag and Environment) 9 Million Euro