© Crown copyright Met Office 2011 Climate impacts on UK wheat yields using regional model output Jemma Gornall 1, Pete Falloon 1, Kyungsuk Cho 2,, Richard

© Crown copyright Met Office 2011

Climate impacts on UK wheat yields using regional model outputJemma Gornall1, Pete Falloon1, Kyungsuk Cho2,, Richard Betts1, Robin Clark1

1Met Office Hadley Centre 2Korea Meteorological Administration


Outline

• Climate impacts on UK winter wheat case study

• The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT)

• Methods and UKCP09 climate projections

• Results

• Validation

• Future projections


DSSAT http://www.icasa.net/dssat/

DSSAT

• CROPGRO plant growth module

• Grain Legumes - Soybean, peanut, dry bean, chickpea, cowpea, velvet bean, and faba bean

• Vegetables - Pepper, cabbage, tomato

• Grasses – Bahia, brachiaria

• CERES Plant Growth Module

• Grain Cereals -Rice, maize, millet, sorghum, wheat, and barley

• SUBSTOR Plant Growth Module

• Potato


DSSAT

Minimum Inputs:

• Daily weather (max. & min. temperature, total precipitation, solar radiation)

• Soil (albedo, water coefficients, N & P contents, evaporation, root growth factor)

• Crop genetic inputs (coefficients related to photoperiod sensitivity,

duration of grain filling rates and vernalization requirements)

• Management options (planting date and seed density)


Climate impacts on UK winter wheat – using DSSAT/CERES

• CERES-Wheat (Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis-Wheat)

• Dynamic process-based crop model, widely validated

• Used for site and regional climate impact studies.

• Temperature - key role in vegetative growth and development

• Environmental factors (water, nutrient stress) linked to plant growth and development.

• Daily biomass production calculated using solar radiation

• Can simulate physiological effects of increased CO2


Approach for regional crop modelling.

• Used generic parameters for cultivar and soil coefficients available from DSSAT

• Validate generic DSSAT set-up with UK field data


Validation (Rothamsted Broadbalk, 1999-2009)

Cho et al. 2011, Climate Research (accepted)


Approach for regional crop modelling.

• Used generic parameters for cultivar and soil coefficients available from DSSAT

• Validate generic DSSAT set-up with UK field data

• UKCP climate projections (daily min/max temp., precip, solar radiation)

• 13 administrative regions, 11 member raw RCM data (SRES A1B)

• 30 year time slices (2020s, 2050s, 2080s)

• Assess uncertainties in future climate impacts using RCM ensemble

Current UK winter wheat distribution


NE N.E. England NW N.W. England NI N. Ireland NS N. Scotland WS W. Scotland WM W. Midlands Wa Wales EE E. of England ES E. Scotland EM E. Midlands SE S.E. England SW S.W. England YH Yorks & Humber.

Precipitation (%)

Max. temperature (ºC) Min. temperature (ºC)

UKCP09 Climate ProjectionsChange in 30 y average (2070-2099), from baseline (1971-2000)


Future projections

• Development rate

• Heading date (average date by which a crop has formed seedheads)

• Physiological maturity (date of max. kernel dry weight = readiness for harvest)

• Yields


Heading date (days after planting) Change in 30 y average, from baseline (1971-2000)

Sowing date 10th October N application 200kg ha-1yr-1

Box: 25th& 75th percentile Crosses: maximum/minimum Plus: median Diamond: unperturbed simulation


NE N.E. England NW N.W. EnglandNI N. IrelandNS N. Scotland WS W. Scotland WM W. Midlands Wa Wales EE E. of EnglandES E. Scotland EM E. MidlandsSE S.E. EnglandSW S.W. EnglandYH Yorks & Humber.

+x

Faster development,

impact increases with time

Largest impact further north


Physiological maturity (days after planting) Change in 30 y average, from baseline (1971-2000)





+x

Largest impact further north


Yield (%)Change in 30 y average, from baseline (1971-2000)





+x

Uncertainty increases with time

Gains in north

Losses in south


Conclusions to UK wheat study

• In all regions, temperature increases accelerated wheat development

• Positive impact on yield, particularly further north; some decreases in the South

• Uncertainties in yield production increase with time (climate driven)

• CO2 fertilisation may compensate yield losses due to temperature and rainfall

• UK production: losses in some regions may be compensated by gains elsewhere

Summary

• Use of regional model ensembles can provide useful information to climate impacts studies of crops

• The DSSAT software is a good framework for these assessments

• If generic parameterisation is used some level of validation should take place and results should be interpreted accordingly.

Documents

© Crown copyright Met Office 2011 Climate impacts on UK wheat yields using regional model output Jemma Gornall 1, Pete Falloon 1, Kyungsuk Cho 2,, Richard