中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China 2013 年 11 月 14 日 November 14, 2013

如何平衡气候变化与经济增长BREAKING THE LINKSBETWEEN GROWTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE

安德鲁斯蒂尔博士 主席兼执行总裁 Andrew Steer President & CEO

六大全球挑战 SIX GLOBAL CHALLENGES

森林粮食

水资源气候变化

城市与交通能源

推广Scale It

改变Change It

量化Count It

我们的工作方法WRI’S APPROACH

以成效至上的数据分析和工具Managing for ResultsData, Analysis & Tools

提出系统性的建议并进行有效传播和沟通Systemic Adoption& Communications

开展一些列活动、对模式进行探索和检验、产生实质影响Convening, Testing &

Influencing

建立全球工作网络WRI’s COUNTRY NETWORK

同时，也是绿色增长的机遇…BUT SO DO OPPORTUNITIES FOR GREEN GROWTH.

资源挑战随着经济增长而更加严峻AS CHINA GROWS, SO DO ITS RESOURCE CHALLENGES…

更有力的环境政策会阻碍还是会促进经济发展？ Will stronger environmental policies hurt or help the economy?

1. 双赢的机会远大于我们的估计1. Win-Win Opportunities are bigger than we thought.

(McKinsey 2010)

资源效率：双赢Resource Efficiency: Win-Wins

20

25

30

0

65

70

-5

总氮减排空间（吨）

18,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000

新建工业污染治理设施

总氮减排单位成本（万元/吨）

5

10

15

污水处理厂提标升级新建市政污水处理厂

污泥处理人工湿地养殖场沼气工程

户用沼气池小麦测土配方施肥水稻测土配方施肥

水生蔬菜

2015 减排目标:7400吨

工业措施城市污水措施

农业措施

1200

1500

730

1600

2800

1300810

20004200

巢湖流域总氮 PROA 分析PROA Analysis of Chao Lake

(Draft. Not for distribution)

2. 科技变革比我们想象的更快！2. Technology Change can be induced more quickly than we thought!

技术变革 Directed Technical ChangePorter and van der Linde (1995)…Acemoglu and others (2011)

… which leads to increased competitiveness… 从而提高市场竞争力 .

Policy promotes innovation 政策促进创新

OECD 2010

Index of innovation in climate change mitigation technologies (1990 = 1)

技术变革 Directed Technical Change

光伏成本的下降Falling Costs in Solar PV

(US Department of Energy, 2011)

(Pew 2012)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

GW

China U.S. Germany Spain Italy Japan India France Brazil

可再生能源装机容量RENEWABLE ENERGY INSTALLED CAPACITY IN CHINA

RENEWABLE ENERGY | INSTALLED WIND CAPACITY可再生能源 | 风电装机容量

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

ChinaGermanyIndiaUnited States

Tota

l Ins

talle

d W

ind

Capa

city

(GW

)

Source: BP

两大挑战：（ i ）城镇化（ ii ）摆脱“煤炭依赖”Two Crucial Test Cases for these

hypotheses:(i) Urbanization

(ii) The transition from Coal

1. 可持续城镇化URBANIZATION TOWARD SUSTAINABLITY

中国面临的挑战CHINA’S COMING CHALLENGES

530 Million in 2005

315 Million in 2008

(McKinsey Global Institute 2012, )

前所未有的城镇化进程CHINESE URBANIZATION UNPRECEDENTED

INDIAN CITIES SLOWER

urban contribution to GDP

39%Urban contribution to GDP

78%Million people living in cities in 2025930

530 Million in 2025

自然资源 & 环境容量Natural resource & environment capacity

废弃物 & 污染Wastes &pollutants...

生产 & 消费Production &consumption

回收和控制废弃物 & 减少污染Recycle and control wastes & pollutants

提高效率Improve efficiency& consumption

城市是生态系统的一个熵增系统CITY AS A SYSTEM OF ENTROPY

创建低碳城市典范CREATING LOW CARBON CITY MODELSCHENGDU, 中国成都 QINGDAO青岛

Partner cities

Government buy-in

Blueprint Toolkits Demo

projectsScaling

up

基准线Baseline

技术路线图Technology Roadmap

跟踪评估Performance

tracking实施

Implemen-tation

规划蓝图的编制和实施过程 Blueprint preparation and implementation process

示范项目 Demonstration projects

规划蓝图Blueprints

行动计划ActionPlan

成都市低碳发展规划蓝图研究Chengdu LC blueprint study

情景分析Scenario

Development

设定和分解目标 Target Setting & Allocation

投资分析Investment

analysis

进展SIGNS OF PROGRESS

2013 年 9 月：中国政府颁布《大气污染防治行动计划》September 2013: Government of China announced national plan to curb air pollution

2. 降低煤炭使用2. SHIFTING AWAY FROM COAL

(WRI 2012)

计划新增煤电产能PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY

(WRI 2012)

印度INDIA

计划新增煤电产能PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY

(WRI 2012)

印度INDIA

中国CHINA

计划新增煤电产能PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY

(Pew 2012)

51%计划新建煤电厂在极度缺水地区Proposed coal power capacity in areas of high or extremely high water stress

PROVIDING TOOLS FOR DECISION-MAKINGMAPPING WATER RISK WITH AQUEDUCT

(WRI 2013)

77% 批准新建的煤制天然气产能分布在极度缺水地区。很可能与当地其他用水形成竞争。

中国的环境退化损失严重CHINA’S ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION IS VERY COSTLY

Syria

Nepal

Leba

non

Cambod

ia

Morocc

o

Algeria

PeruBenin

Banglad

esh

Egypt

Pakistan

Iran

Nigeria

C.A.R

.

Avera

geChin

a

Tajikist

an

Ghana

0

2

4

6

8

10

Cos

t of e

nviro

nmen

tal d

egra

datio

n as

% o

f GD

P eq

uiva

lent

9.2% OF GDP

(World Bank reports, 2005-2012)

(World Bank reports, 2005-2012)

GDP CO2 Steel Coal Timber Palm Oil Fish0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

India

China

有限的资源LIMITED RESOURCES全球消耗总量占比PERCENTAGE OF GLOBAL CONSUMPTION

谢谢Thank you ！www.wri.org

中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China 2013 年 11 月 14 日 November 14, 2013

安德鲁斯蒂尔博士 主席兼执行总裁 Andrew Steer, President & CEO