* SourceESRI, 2000
Renewables99-01
This data comes from EU questionnaire on RES Capacity
Renewable energy generation GWh/aest11.63GWh = 1kTOE
199920002001 (estimate)
Hydro846850800
Wind187244359
Solar PV000
Solar Thermal334
Solar Collectors000
Biomass158316601744
Biogas165133170
Liquid Biofuels000
Wave & Tidal000
Geothermal390465512
Total317433553589
of which:
Heat201121652430
Electricity116311901289
Fuels000
Renewable energy generation kTOE
Hydro737369
Wind162131
Solar PV000
Solar Thermal000
Solar Collectors000
Biomass136143150
Biogas141115
Liquid Biofuels000
Wave & Tidal000
Geothermal344044
11.6279069767GWh = 1kTOEkTOE 1999kTOE 2000kTOE 2001
(estimated)
EU Return273289309
ESRI Model247249257
ElecGeneratingMix%
491.81127.3497.2331.299149.77660
480.964208.45613.76310.47154.58364
545.292214.32820.32297.108158.63168
534.446210.65826.88396.537141.17464
553.52242.2233.44395.751148.51180
574.838231.57740440.946145.72862
587.18233.77940.88545.877143.95769
564.366298.73841.76573.18140.41584
574.464405.53542.64556.78131.054116
481.338505.72643.6593.27135.608112
546.788405.90244.4711.76124.476114
546.788368.981856.32760.2329968528187.85123.6592010962
546.788332.061668.24876.438169594187.85134.1368246996
546.788295.141480.16953.2823679939187.85145.5022156134
546.788258.221292.08939.6027205763187.85157.8305942148
546.788221.301274844.7972648196187.85171.2035542907
546.788184.3808289.2876.7037426011240.5185.7096030563
546.788147.4606304.4956.9145750731240.5201.4447469284
273.394110.5404319.61312.8813788224240.5218.5131269315
273.39473.6202334.81396.776753746240.5237.027707942
273.39436.73501459.0324208564240.5274.0030886601
273.39436.7377.78181818181482.1141855052240.5279.9094383571
273.39436.7405.56363636361500.4247296284240.5285.2617473173
273.39436.7433.34545454551517.5098387232240.5290.4717570646
273.39436.7461.12727272731536.6631244976240.5295.9219263528
273.39436.7488.90909090911556.980896051240.5301.5073173427
Coal
Oil
Gas - CHP
Gas - Non CHP
Peat
Ren & Hydro
Year
kTOE
Fig 7 Share of Electricity Generation by Fuel
ElecGeneratingMix
491.81127.3497.2331.299149.77660
480.964208.45613.76310.47154.58364
545.292214.32820.32297.108158.63168
534.446210.65826.88396.537141.17464
553.52242.2233.44395.751148.51180
574.838231.57740440.946145.72862
587.18233.77940.88545.877143.95769
564.366298.73841.76573.18140.41584
574.464405.53542.64556.78131.054116
481.338505.72643.6593.27135.608112
546.788405.90244.4711.76124.476114
546.788368.981856.32760.2329968528187.85123.6592010962
546.788332.061668.24876.438169594187.85134.1368246996
546.788295.141480.16953.2823679939187.85145.5022156134
546.788258.221292.08939.6027205763187.85157.8305942148
546.788221.301274844.7972648196187.85171.2035542907
546.788184.3808289.2876.7037426011240.5185.7096030563
546.788147.4606304.4956.9145750731240.5201.4447469284
273.394110.5404319.61312.8813788224240.5218.5131269315
273.39473.6202334.81396.776753746240.5237.027707942
273.39436.73501459.0324208564240.5274.0030886601
273.39436.7377.78181818181482.1141855052240.5279.9094383571
273.39436.7405.56363636361500.4247296284240.5285.2617473173
273.39436.7433.34545454551517.5098387232240.5290.4717570646
273.39436.7461.12727272731536.6631244976240.5295.9219263528
273.39436.7488.90909090911556.980896051240.5301.5073173427
Coal
Oil
Gas - CHP
Gas - Non CHP
Peat
Ren & Hydro
Year
kTOE
Fig 6 Electricity Generation by Fuel
TPER by Fuel
220841361481456.67014925371358169
216044921531495.48179104481271175
212547691461496.29194029851313166
200247891471790.09313432841197167
191452751531789.9077611941233207
191753071481976.74029850751214191
216256261402316.321069209
20536078.9023808321432372.641026223
20466904.79439874441442412.96981255
17747804.68249419361482594.4887247
19907772.636738689154.90139923723039.6789249
1884.18087853957948.2405925851153.55706216633217.9654476345944.2127272727257.0142010962
1835.99012744168116.9414317753152.24084730643494.0249803468935.4263545455266.8564996996
1800.27446964668230.5423341573150.9540104553719.4323494971926.6408683182277.5960954884
1771.74780805158349.034433936149.69070430433770.5031039032917.8562552934289.3080658917
1747.52774660678308.5431661261148.44668233594103.6751204258909.0725023731302.0738638924
1727.4336852398397.3289945879147.2192560084250.4116558357900.2895966557315.981858014
1709.11537090618484.4225668903146.01198529924482.0631543541891.5075254331331.1279180618
961.11126921468571.2038038684144.82340678635206.9375098736882.726276188347.6160504979
945.11406157988655.3448402543143.65362546455457.3132282328873.9458365906365.5590876548
889.38870371658753.5503156295142.50340259075655.6542861654881.438921769401.9714976772
Coal
Oil
LPG
Gas
Peat
Ren. & Hydro
Year
kTOE
Republic of Ireland Total Primary Energy Requirement by Fuel
1990-2010
IndustryHeat
2585863726260
2535703776261
1646213646054
1656183426057
1257403046370
1106893136271
2276653105977
1906963726095
1907083966195
1857574066488
1997454796888
106.6354239941829.3253875336488.29426780016888
71.8992183507856.2024023845497.65932441696888
49.6381060102871.5381693285507.39164027046888
34.5659898697880.4134368055517.41045660386888
23.8004738794713.1552763136697.14622373696888
17.1609579663706.2033496577707.68438137126888
12.297189088697.2168389779718.12074455926888
8.747632851687.8847121044728.9380337486888
6.2049706707677.3805173077739.69036397426888
4.3887037165666.2047020613750.46423582036888
3.5406722014635.4962936339767.08464780256888
2.8560031102604.7679618048783.76147094886888
2.3034488924573.7604866672800.38047130016888
1.8548703345542.5035410587816.94225199446888
1.4922941016511.0015058241833.44146742796888
Coal
Oil excluding LPG
Gas
LPG
Other Ren
Year
kTOE
Fuel Used for Heating in the Industry Sector (Excluding
Electricity)
A
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Change
on 1990average growth:2000-20052005-20102010-2015Compound
growth
Assumptions - from Macro-Model2000-2010
GNP2951330187308883193433950367233943243106464855011955061583806152164226667826947772559756887898182395857818811090541931039577398675190.7%revise
from MTR4.84.32.8
Consumption1975020105206842130022228231922466426488285543074933651360723855339536403354103842801443824612547846493195020351052519215295954099149.7%revise
from MTR4.03.71.9
Gross Output T
QGIMT21168217682389625239283953409436837427644982055540605146613270440748027934584287889909403499462105245111406115711120186124837129699134770426.3%QGIMD6.95.73.9
Real personal disposable income
YRPERD21552221822264224047240542556226955291943159533649363353913542057435104476745873472944877150410520065360854568554925643657564588034.83.21.91.039658282
Commercial and Public Employment
LSM+LSNP+LSNHE6446556726977137558038188789459971049107510971117114311741207124312751306133213561373139214062.82.71.5
Ag Output
QGA299229293168292628552860300330723070293930532843303930173000314230893044299529782971296929672966296529640.6-1.1-0.0
Employment in manufacturing -
LIMT2332322322292412542552772862922932993053063083093073063053053042982932882822771.0-0.3-1.8
Industry, GDP at constant prices -
OI9750100401066410925120211389815114174171980221954246582667228674305173256034704368023889541054434664595948016500535204953993559027.15.84.0
Traditional Manufacturing, gross output at constant prices -
QGIMD553955365670576360626524668270667208749777978031823182078055793678537794778177597728770176597601755675130.4-0.5-0.6
Food Processing Manufacturing, gross output at constant prices -
QGIMF5946620167737118767285048576867292809744101341043810751110451132211611118881216612443127241300413270135371380514072143362.82.32.0
High Tech. Manufacturing, gross output at constant prices -
QGIMH10017105111194912864150821906721400263603240537265414584643350147541595849263171675937232477387828048860192588967541011081056581104128.87.04.5
Stock of Cars
SCARS796837858891939990105711341197126913041338135613831404142314721516156416121652167616991722175017811.83.01.5
Households1022.310291049106810841102112311521184121612501285132013561393143114711510155015901630166516871706172417422.70%2.72.61.3
Persons per
household3.43.43.43.33.33.33.23.23.13.13.03.02.92.92.82.82.82.72.72.62.62.62.62.62.52.52.82.62.50.9852957425
Population >
15255125852624265726872724276728152870291529633005304230763111314631823217325032783306333333613388341534411.21.00.8
Population
15-6421512002182400221800022492002278800231220023528002398700244940024937002538795257930026133802645072267569027059602737706276709727908962809646282663728388372851618286230328718642882206
Stock of Cars SCARS -
DKM79683785889193999010571134119612691297135314091465152115771632168817441800185618831909193519662001
GNP elasticity of
TFC0.740.79-0.100.700.160.980.390.970.880.510.470.600.590.630.650.540.540.540.530.510.380.350.320.360.35Calculated
here ex post
Summary of Energy Consumption for the economy:Share of Total
Primary energy including feedstock
TPER by Fuel including feedstockThis aggregates up from later
tables20002010
Coal220821602125200219141917216220532046177419901884183618001772174817271709961945889875860846832817-59.7%Electricity
use+ final consumption-2.6-12.6-1.714.25.2
Oil41364492476947895275530756266079690578057773794881178231834983098397848485718655875488348918900090999203111.6%Electricity
use+ final consumption1.31.01.055.552.3
LPG148153146147153148140143144148155154152151150148147146145144143141140139138137-3.7%FInal
consumption-0.8-0.8-0.81.10.8
Gas14571495149617901790197723162373241325943040321834943719377141044250448252075457565657845895600061096218
Peat13581271131311971233121410691026981887789944935927918909900892883874881863845827809791-35.1%Electricity
use+ final consumption2.9-0.6-2.15.65.1
Ren. &
Hydro169175166167207191209223255247249257267278289302316331348366402407412417422427137.9%Electricity
use+ final consumption3.95.91.21.82.4
TPER excluding
feedstock9046929895799681101131033111121114301228413045135911400114397147011484415115153351564015710160371632116501166671682517005171895.62.11.51.097.197.61.0184689243
Total Primary Energy
Requirement9476974610015100921057210754115221189712744134551399514405148011510515248155191573916044161141644116725169051707117229174091759376.5%1995-20002.11.51.01.8100.0100.01.0179761752
Gas (incl
Feedstock)18871943193222012249240027172840287330043444362238984123417545084654488656115861606061886299640465136622221.2%Electricity
use+ final consumption + feedstock5.56.11.85.824.636.6
TPER by Sector including transformation losses
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Change
on 1990average growth:2000-20052005-20102010-2015Compound
growth
Residential2980302530232972308931243284324234263550363337333807386939093951396840153987403840674087410041124125413936.5%1.70.60.4
Commercial &
Public1517162217051764193019042002203521442249236524782571260926202637268727562767284028982948299530353083312791.0%2.21.91.5
Agricultural33234535536039738238338040640343039041440840241740539738337937737637537437437313.4%-0.6-2.0-0.2
Transport20622157234123592388250127943032342038023980414943184485465248214989515753265494566257435820590059956099174.6%3.93.31.5
Industry2585259925942639277028453062321133503453359036583695373637573785378138113743378138133843387238993924394647.5%
Total9476974910018100941057410756115241189912746134571399814408148041510815340156111583116136162061653316816169961716217321175001768577.5%
CHP - Total Gas
used183451678410010210410710911114117120023068572376179983787594410141083115312224761.1%From
2005 Alcan start up with 250mw station - see notes sheet
Assumed share to heat -
Commercial10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%3.8%4.1%4.4%4.6%4.9%5.1%5.5%5.8%6.0%6.3%6.5%
Assumed share to heat -
Industrial30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%36.3%35.9%35.6%35.4%35.1%34.9%34.5%34.2%34.0%33.7%33.5%
Assumed share to
electricity60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%These
assumptions mean that 80% of the input energy is converted into
useful energy.
Efficiency -
heat100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Efficiency -
electricity66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%66.7%
Electricity - fuels consumed by generation
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Change
on 1990average growth:2000-20052005-20102010-2015Compound
growth
Coal131512861458142914801537157015091536128714621462146214621462146214621462731731731731731731731731-44.4%It
is assumed that Moneypoint use of coal is halved in 2008 for
environmental reasons0.0-12.90.0
Oil3475685845746606316378141105137811061005905804704603502402301201100100100100100100-71.2%It
is assumed that almost all of oil consumption is phased out by
2010-11.4-30.20.0
Gas85481178610491057118214501461142215121803190621302284227823832462262732813453358636693743381538903968320.0%5.78.52.0
Gas -
CHP1121304050606163646567841021201384114344574795025255676086506927334761.1%We
take a figure for 2010 that is approx. half the ESBI figure of
March 2000. We interpolate43.95.06.9
Gas - Non
CHP84379075610091007112213891398135814471736182220282164214019722028217128022951306131023134316531993235263.1%At
the margin the efficiency of production is 55% and this supplies
the residual demand for electricity. However, in 2005 one third of
old plant is replaced and another third in 2010 and the last third
in 20152.69.21.1
Peat5926116275585875765695555185364926506506506506506506506506506506506506506506509.8%Consumption
rise in 2001 because of europeat. Thereafter it is held constant at
2001 levels but new plant comes on stream in 2006 to replace
existing inefficient plant. Thereafter no change5.70.00.0
Ren &
Hydro6064686480626984116112114124134146158171186201219237274280285290296302356.7%Set
at 10% of all electricity by 2010, otherwise
interpolatd8.59.91.9
Total3168334035233674386439884295442346974825497751475281534652525269526253435182527153415429550955865667575068.6%1.10.31.5
Renewables share of total electricity
consumed5.8%6.0%6.0%5.5%6.6%4.8%5.0%5.8%7.6%6.9%6.6%6.8%7.0%7.4%7.8%8.2%8.6%9.0%9.5%10.0%11.2%11.2%11.2%11.2%11.2%11.2%
Best new entrant gas
efficiency56.4%56.4%56.4%56.4%56.4%56.4%56.4%56.4%56.4%56.4%56.4%56.4%56.4%56.4%56.4%
Average gas
efficiency39.3%39.3%39.3%39.3%39.3%39.3%39.3%41.0%41.0%41.0%41.0%41.7%43.2%44.0%43.9%42.8%43.2%44.1%46.9%47.3%47.7%47.8%47.9%48.0%48.0%48.1%
Electricity produced from200020102015
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Change
on 1990average growth:2000-20052005-20102010-2015Compound
growth
Coal4924815455345545755875645744815475475475475475475475472732732732732732732732730.0-12.90.028.110.49.4
Oil12720821421124223223429940650640636933229525822118414711174373737373737-11.4-30.20.020.81.41.3
Gas3383243174234294815876155996377568179451033103211191166126116321732180918601906195119982046Residual8.210.12.538.868.770.6
Gas -
CHP71420273340414243444456688092274289304320335350378406433461489The
efficiency is given above43.95.06.92.313.316.9
Gas - Non
CHP33131029739739644154657355759371276087695394084587795713131397145914821500151815371557Residual3.511.51.336.655.453.7
Peat150155159141149146144140131136124188188188188188241241241241241241241241241241Efficiency
of conversion on old plant is at average 1998. On new plant it is
37%8.65.10.06.49.18.3
Ren &
Hydro6064686480626984116112114124134146158171186201219237274280285290296302Set
at 10% of all electricity by 2010, otherwise
interpolatd8.59.91.95.910.410.4
Total electricity
generated11671232130413741453149516211702182618721947204421462209218222462323239824752556263426902742279228442898Historically
the sum of electricity generated by fuel, in forecast indexed to
actual el. Generated2.93.21.9100.0100.0100.0
Actual electricity
generated12241276135413661428148815981695179318732026212622322298227123372417249425752659274027992853290529593015This
adjustment is necessary because the efficiency factors assumed for
the 1990s were not precisely rightGeneration is 1/.87 times demand
to allow for transmission losses2.93.21.9
Electricity used in
generation9010010586102779010911483129131133134134135137138140141143144145146147149This
is determined by the assumed percentage own use of electricity
below
Electricity exported from domestic
plants11341176124912801326141115081586167917901897199620992164213722022281235624362518259726552707275828122867This
is the amount of electricity fed into the grid from domestic
generation
Electricity Imports00000000000000909090909090909090909090This is
the assumed imports from the North (or GB)
Electricity available before transmission
losses11341176124912801326141115081586167917901897199620992164222722922371244625262608268727452797284829022957This
is the total amount of electricity fed into the Irish national
grid3.93.21.9
Losses in
transmission102106112115119127136143151161171180189195200206213220227235242247252256261266This
is the losses in transmission determined by the percentage
transmission losses shown below
Total electricity
demand10321070113711651207128413721443152816291726181619101969202620852157222622982373244524982546259226412690This
is the sum of the domestic demand for
electricity3.93.21.91.0354153005
Percentage losses:
Own use of
electricity7.3%7.9%7.7%6.3%7.1%5.2%5.7%6.4%6.3%4.4%6.4%6.2%6.0%5.8%5.9%5.8%5.7%5.5%5.4%5.3%5.2%5.2%5.1%5.0%5.0%4.9%
Transmission
losses9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Total losses as % of
Demand18.6%19.3%19.1%17.3%18.3%15.9%16.5%17.5%17.3%15.0%17.3%17.1%16.8%16.7%16.5%16.4%16.2%16.1%16.0%15.9%15.7%15.7%15.6%15.5%15.5%15.4%
Electricity Sector Emissions of CO2
Coal47164612522851245307551256305411550846155243524352435243524352435243524326212621262126212621262126212621
Oil110318061857182520992007202625893514438235173197287725572237191815981278958638318318318318318318
Gas19641864180924132431271933363359327134794146438549005254524054815663604375477941824884388608877489489126
Peat28592951302826952835278227482681250225892376314031403140314031403140314031403140314031403140314031403140
Total1064211233119231205812673130191374014040147941506515282159641615916194158591578015643157031426514340143271451714687148531502715205
Energy Transformation Sector own consumption / transmission
losses
Coal
Oil63627066696769849686104104104104104104104104104104104104104104104104
Gas27413330215652473043315355606364697175869093959698100
Peat910271323231-2-623-6
Electricity - losses in transmission
etc.192206217201221204226252265244300310322329334341350358367376385391397403409415
Losses in conversion into
electricity19442064216923082436250026972728290429522951302130493048298129322845284826062612260126302656268127082735
Losses in transformation,
MTOE22262373248926052747282730443111329533253385348835303541348234423368338231523178318032183252328533193354
Transformation Sector (non elec) Emissions of CO2
Oil226222251237247240247301344308373373373373373373373373373373373373373373373373
Gas6294766948129120108699971121127137145147159164172197206213218222225229
Peat4348130631111115-10-29111-29000000000000000
Total331365457368407480372400384518415494500510518520532537545570579586591595598602
Percentage transformation loss by fuel
Coal
Oil1.6%1.6%1.7%1.6%1.5%1.5%1.4%1.6%1.7%1.4%1.6%1.5%1.5%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%
Gas4.7%6.4%4.9%4.2%3.0%7.6%6.4%5.4%3.1%4.1%2.6%4.2%4.2%4.3%4.4%3.9%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.5%4.5%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%
Peat1.2%1.5%4.1%2.1%3.7%3.7%0.2%-0.4%-1.3%7.0%-2.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Electricity - losses in transmission
etc.207.0%212.1%209.9%215.4%220.1%210.6%213.1%206.5%207.4%196.2%188.3%183.5%176.5%171.5%163.6%157.0%148.1%144.0%129.4%125.9%122.1%121.0%120.0%119.0%118.0%117.1%
TFC by Fuel excluding feedstock. This is derived by adding the
TFC by individual sectors.
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Change
on 1990average growth:2000-20052005-20102010-2015Compound
growth
Coal89387466757343438059254451048752842237433831028626524723021415814412911510186-82.3%
Oil37263862411541494546460949205181570463416563683971087322754176027791797981668351855086308714879688958999129.5%
LPG148153146147153148140143144148155154152151150148147146145144143141140139138137-3.7%
Gas57664467771171273981486596110391206125913081375142916571719178418511919198020222058208921212150243.8%6.63.61.7
Peat757650659626623615499473469328303294285277268259250242233224231213195177159141-69.4%
Electricity10321070113711651207128413721443152816291726181619101969202620852157222622982373244524982546259226412690136.9%
Renewables
(heat)1091119810312712914013913913513513313313213113113013012912912812712712612612517.4%
TFC724173647499747478027904847787889455101071061610917112711156511856121681246112753130521335313635137761390914034141801432988.3%
Change on 1990
%2%4%3%8%9%17%21%31%40%47%51%56%60%64%68%72%76%80%84%88%90%92%94%96%98%
TFC by Sector
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Change
on 1990average growth:2000-20052005-20102010-2015Compound
growth
Residential2223220821502078213821772300227224032479257626432712277228332893293929853032307831093119312731333141314939.8%
Commercial &
Public10061053110111331261122912631269133514221526159216551693172517631822188019442004205921002138216922052236104.7%
Agricultural25226126726830128828427929830933329931931731533032532031531331231231231231231223.9%
Transport (incl
LPG)20252121229823182348246127512979335937473913408242514418458547514919508752555423559056715748582759226026176.1%
Industry1735172116831677175417491879198920602150226823012334236423982430245624802507253525642575258425932600260747.8%
Public
Transport434645464548505255586164676869707274767879808182838483.1%
Private
Transport16081670181818101893202922762483284531473297343935813723386540074149429144334575471747854850491749975085193.4%
Air
Transport374405435462410384425444459542555579603627651675699722746770794806817828841856112.4%
0.190.190.200.170.160.150.150.14
TFC724173647499747478027904847787889455101071061610917112711156511856121681246112753130521335313635137761390914034141801432988.3%
Residential
Residential TPER
Coal6346205024073082693643543203023293163022892752622482352212081541401261139985
Oil including
LPG3553963884065235826566827689159309529921013104710801094110711181128115311641182120212231243
Gas122171196226246271322302350403450502531579613645684723764809844863874884894903
Peat734631671625635629485460457347293290282273264255247238229220228210192174156138
Electricity10931164122712681329132314031404149115401588163016581675166916691656167416171635165016741689170417201736
Other
Ren4243384049505441414343424241404039393838373636353534
Total29803025302329723089312432843242342635503633373338073869390939513968401539874038406740874100411241254139
Residential TFC
Coal6346205024073082693643543203023293163022892752622482352212081541401261139985-75.7%Residual-4.5-10.1-11.2
Oil including
LPG349390382400515574647671755903915938978998103310661080109311041114113911501168118812091229226.5%3.11.31.51.0221689291
Oil excluding
LPG27931731333044450658360568983284086490592796299610111025103710491075108711061127114811693.51.51.71.0249594591
Gas117161187217239252303286339387439482509555587621658695734774808825836845854863590.3%Indexed
to number of household customers shown
below7.25.41.31.0628528426
LPG7073697071686466667175747372717068676665646463626160-7.9%-1.5-1.5-1.5
Peat725621645612612606484462463324299290282273264255247238229220228210192174156138-68.6%Falls
by 1.5% a year-3.1-2.2-9.62000-20101997-2010
Electricity356373396402415426448458485520551575600617633649667686705724743757768778789800108.7%indexed
to consumption modified be elasticity shown
below3.32.71.51.0303407481.6222
Other
Ren4243384049505441414343424241404039393838373636353534-12.0%-1.5-1.5-1.5Population1.1381
Total2223220821502078213821772300227224032479257626432712277228332893293929853032307831093119312731333141314939.8%None
electricity consumption by housholds * number of households plus
electricityElectricity/Head1.42537129.2829
Non-electricity consumption per
household1.831.781.671.571.591.591.651.571.621.621.621.621.621.621.621.621.621.621.621.621.621.621.621.621.621.62Constant
Number of
Households1022102910491068108411021123115211841216125012851320135613931431147115101550159016301665168717061724174259.5%revise
from MTR1.0269040127
Share of households in gas
region43.6%43.6%43.6%43.6%45.2%45.4%45.5%47.0%47.5%48.0%48.5%49.0%49.5%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%Assumes
that gas is extended to the west gradually from 2001-05 taking in
total of 2.5% more households
Households in Gas
Region490503517530545583600637662687713740767795815833844853862871Indexed
to number of households
Households with Local
Gas450462476490504542561599622646670696721747766783793802810819Households
in gas region by local gas/gas region
Local Gas / Gas
Region91.8%92.0%92.1%92.3%92.5%93.0%93.5%94.0%94.0%94.0%94.0%94.0%94.0%94.0%94.0%94.0%94.0%94.0%94.0%94.0%Forecast
penetration at end period, earlier interpolated
Number of Household
Customers258279302327354389411447473501530560592624651665674682689696Gas
penetration by no. of households in gas region
Gas
Penetration57.3%60.3%63.4%66.8%70.2%71.7%73.2%74.6%76.1%77.6%79.1%80.6%82.0%83.5%85.0%85.0%85.0%85.0%85.0%85.0%Forecast
penetration at end period, earlier interpolated
Consumption Elasticity of Residential
Electricity2.662.140.510.740.610.810.810.800.800.790.790.790.780.780.770.770.760.760.750.750.750.750.750.750.75constant
Residential electricity - elasticity wrt
Real personal disposable
income0.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.350.35
Households1.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.00
Household
size0.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.070.07
oil central heating
boilers563598630661675703715738760768776782787798804815827840853
Gas use per
customer1.171.031.121.181.241.241.241.241.241.241.241.241.241.241.241.241.241.241.241.24
oil use per
boiler1.191.261.431.381.391.391.401.401.401.411.411.411.421.431.431.431.441.441.44
Residential CO2
emissions0.930.930.940.940.940.940.940.940.940.940.940.9494.0%0.940.940.94
Coal2274222318001460110496513051269114810831180113210831035987939890842794746552503453403354304
Oil excluding
LPG85196795510071354154317781845210125382562263427612827293530383084312731643198327833143373343635013566
Gas2693704304995505806976587808901010110911721275135014291512159916881780185718981923194419651985
LPG186194184186189181170176176189200197194191188185182179177174172169166164161159
Peat30022571267025342534250920041913191713411238120211661129109310571021985949913944869795720646571
Electricity36713916415341614357431944864456469548084877505650735074495749144840483843764374435344024432445944884520
Total102521024210191984610088100971044110317108161084911066113291144811531115101156111530115701114811185111571115511141111261111511105
Commercial & Public TPER
Coal11111110000000000000000000
Oil including
LPG64966068668678873971170273477181284385786987889291092995096798410031021103410491059
Gas91113132158174187214218233256295300314327339352368385404423441450458464470475
Peat322915141191511644444444443333333
Electricity73781286589994896010521103117112171254133113961409139913901405143814101446147014911512153315601590
Other Ren77668890000000000000000000
Total15171622170517641930190420022035214422492365247825712609262026372687275627672840289829482995303530833127
Commercial & Public
Coal11111110000
Oil including
LPG639650675675776728701691722761799830845857866880898917938956972991100910221037104752.2%Residual
of non electricity where non electricity demand is comm and pub
employment by the energy employment ratio
Oil excluding
LPG6306396656657657176916817127497888198348468568708889079289469639821000101310281038
Gas87106126152169174201207226246288288301313325339354370388405422430438443450454385.7%Gas
share of non electricity * energy employment ratio by commercial
and public employment
Gas - CHP
heat23578101010111111141720232629333741455259667279
Gas - CHP electricity
Gas - Non
CHP85102121145160164191197215235277274284293302313324337351364377379379378377375
LPG9111010111110101012111111111010101010109999995.1%Falling by
1.5% a year
Peat322914141191511644444444443333333-89.3%Falling by 1.5% a
year
Electricity240260279285296309336360381411435469505519531541566589615640662675687700716733175.7%Indexed
to C with elasticity shown below
Other Ren77668890000000000000000000-100.0%Falling by 1.5% a
year
Total10061053110111331261122912631269133514221526159216551693172517631822188019442004205921002138216922052236104.7%
Comm. & Pub.
Emp.644655672697713755803818878945997104910751097111711431174120712431275130613321356137313921406102.9%revise
from MTR
Non-electricity Energy/Emp
Ratio1.191.211.221.221.351.221.151.111.091.071.071.071.071.071.071.071.071.071.071.071.071.071.071.071.071.07constant
Gas Share of
Non-Elec0.110.130.150.180.170.190.220.230.240.250.250.260.260.270.270.280.280.290.290.300.300.300.300.300.300.30Indexed
to ratio of number of household customers to households with local
gas
Cons Elasticity of Comm.
Elec.4.642.540.720.891.011.381.101.101.101.101.101.101.101.101.101.101.101.101.101.101.101.101.101.101.10constant
Commercial CO2 emissions
Coal44444440000000000000000000
Oil excluding
LPG19221949202820282333218721082077217222842403249925442582261026542708276728312885293729953050309031343165
Gas2002432893493884004624765205666626636937217477798148528929319709891007102010341044
LPG2429272729292727273229292828282727262626252524242423
Peat132120585846376246251717161616161515151514141414141313
Electricity24752730292629503108313333653502368838003850412742714269415340924107415838163868387739223966401240724140
Total47565075533154155908579060276128643166996962733475537615755375677671781775807724782479458061816082788386
Agriculture TPER
Oil218227231231263249242233249263284252269267266278273269265263263262262262262262
Electricity114119124129134134141144154136141136141138133136129125116113111110110109109108
Renewables00000003344333333333333333
Total332345355360397382383380406403430390414408402417405397383379377376375374374373
Agriculture
Oil21522322722725924523922924525928024826526326227527026626126025925925925925925920.6%
Other Renewables00000003344333333333333333
Electricity373840414243454750464948515150535251505050505050505035.1%Forecast
as 16% of total
Total25226126726830128828427929830933329931931731533032532031531331231231231231231223.9%Forecast
as Ag output by energy output ratio
Ag
Output29922929316829262855286030033072307029393053284330393017300031423089304429952978297129692967296629652964-0.7%revise
from MTR
Energy/Output
Ratio0.080.090.080.090.110.100.090.090.100.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.11
Agriculture CO2 Emissions
Oil656680692692790747729698747790854757809804799837823811798793791791790790789789
Electricity382399419424441436451457484425434420432417395400377361313303293290288286284282
Total10371079111211171231118311801156123112151288117712421221119412371200117211101096108410811078107610731071
Transport TPER
Oil20562154233523532382249527883025341337953973414143104478464548134982515053195487565557365813589359886092
Electricity63666666777777777777777777
Total20622157234123592388250127943032342038023980414943184485465248214989515753265494566257435820590059956099
Public Transport
Oil414543444346485053555962646666676971737476777879808184.3%Elasticity
wrt C .66Check
Electricity2122222222233333333333333358.7%Elasticity wrt C
.66Check
Total434645464548505255586164676869707274767879808182838483.1%
Private Transport
Oil16011663181118031885202222692476283831463296343835803722386440064148429044324574471647844850491749975085194.6%Up
to 1998 residual, then Elasticity wrt GNP 1.0037Check
LPG77778777711111111111111110-91.9%Indexed to GNP adjusted by
elasticity set out belowCheck
Total16081670181818101893202922762483284531473297343935813723386540074149429144334575471747854850491749975085193.4%4.03.31.5
LPG
elasticity0.000.000.002.26-1.530.00-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1
Forecast stock of
cars79683785889193999010571134119612691297135314091465152115771632168817441800185618831909193519662001
Memorandum items
Cars per person >
150.3700.3830.3870.3960.4120.4280.4490.4730.4880.5090.5110.5250.5390.5540.5680.5830.5960.6100.6250.6410.6570.6630.6690.6760.6850.694
Price of
Cars1.271.231.221.201.181.201.191.191.191.181.181.191.191.191.191.191.191.191.191.191.181.181.181.181.181.18revise
from MTR
Stock of Cars using own
model79683785889193999010571134119712691347139714451486152515651612165917091759180818401873190819441983127.0%elasticity
wrt to GNP .65855; wrt price -.69546
Cars per person >
150.3700.3830.3870.3960.4120.4280.4490.4730.4890.5090.5310.5420.5530.5620.5700.5780.5890.6000.6120.6260.6390.6480.6570.6670.6770.688
Air Transport
Kerosene374405435462410384425444459542555579603627651675699722746770794806817828841856112.4%Data
up to 1993, 1993-98 indexed to total transport, thereafter to
private transport
Total374405435462410384425444459542555579603627651675699722746770794806817828841856112.4%
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Transport CO2 Emissions
Public
-oil126139131136131141147154162170181189198201204206212217223228233236238241244248
Private -
oil48024988543454085656606668077427851494399887103131074011166115921201812444128701329613722141491435314549147501499115255
LPG19191919211919191932222222222211111
Kerosene00000000000000000000000000
Electricity2110212121202020212122232323222121211919191919191919
Total496851565605558358296246699376208716963310092105281096211391118191224712679131101354013971144021460914808150121525515523
Industry TPER
Coal25825316416512511022719019018519910772503524171296443221
Oil659642693689815762734768782832826911938953961792785775766755743712681649618586
Gas389401382356313337330392408423491509519529540724736747758773784802820837855872
Electricity12191242130213721447156516941765187519251986204420792116213321582155218821222160219322372281232223612399
Renewables6061545770717795958888888888888888888888888888888888
Total25852599259426392770284530623211335034533590365836953736375737853781381137433781381338433872389939243946
Industry excluding feedstock
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Change
on 1990average growth:2000-20052005-20102010-2015Compound
growth
Coal25825316416512511022719019018519910772503524171296443221-98.3%Elasticity
wrt QGIMD -5Check
Oil including
LPG64863268167880375172475676982181389792494094878177476575674573470367364261157913.3%Check
Oil excluding
LPG586570621618740689665696708757745829856872880713706697688677666635605574543511Residual
Gas372377364342304313310372396406479488498507517697708718729740750767784800817833101.7%Forecast
unchanged
Gas -
CHP51015202530313132333342516069248260271283294305326347368389409From
2005 Alcan starts generating
Gas - Non
CHP367367349322279283279341364373446446446447448449448447446446445441437433428424Indexed
to growth in inon-electricity energy
LPG62626060636259606164686868686868686868686868686868689.7%Forecast
unchangedCheck
Electricity39739842043545250454157661065068972175277980984086989792595698710121037106110831105148.7%Elasticity
wrt OI .57
Traditional143151154169174187192202212220227226221217214212211211209209207205203202Elasticity
wrt QGIMD 1.29
High
Tech159172188195205226249266279294304315326337348358369381392400408416424433Elasticity
wrt QGIMH .44
Food
Processing109109115117117118124129133136139142144147150152155157160162165167170172Elasticity
wrt QGIMF.74
Building &
Utilites192122224444455465718297118139157174190207225241257272286298Residual
from total electricity
Other
Ren6061545770717795958888888888888888888888888888888888Forecast
unchangedCheck
Total non electricity
energy13381323126312421302124513381413145015001579158015821585158815901587158415821579157715621547153215171502Elasticity
wrt LIMT .53 - a time trend + special allowance for web farms
Total1735172116831677175417491879198920602150226823012334236423982430245624802507253525642575258425932600260747.8%
Elasticity of coal to
QGIMD-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5
LIMT23323223222924125425527728629229329930530630830930730630530530429829328828227730.4%revise
from MTR
Elasticity of oil etc. to
LIMT0.5298110.5298110.5298110.5298110.5298110.5298110.5298110.5298110.5298110.5298110.5298110.5298110.5298110.5298110.5298110.5298110.5298110.5298110.529811
Elasticity of oil etc. to
time-0.020015-0.020015-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.010000000000000
OI975010040106641092512021138981511417417198022195424658266722867430517325603470436802388954105443466459594801650053520495399355902371.4%revise
from MTR
QGIMD5539553656705763606265246682706672087497779780318231820780557936785377947781775977287701765976017556751339.5%revise
from MTR
QGIMF594662016773711876728504857686729280974410134104381075111045113221161111888121661244312724130041327013537138051407214336118.7%revise
from MTR
QGIMH1001710511119491286415082190672140026360324053726541458464335014754159584926317167593723247738782804886019258896754101108105658110412784.5%revise
from MTR
Additional gas needed for special sectors - e.g. web
farms000000000000000
Industry CO2 Emissions
Coal9259075885924483948146816816637143822581781248562443122161310875
Oil excluding
LPG17871739189418852257210120282123215923092272252926112658268521752154212720982066203219381845175016551559
Gas8568678377876997207138569119341102112311451167119016031628165216771701172617641803184118791917
LPG165165160160168165157160162170181181181181181181181181181181181181181181181181
Electricity40944178440445024746511054185604590560106099633963606411633363536298632557425777578558845983607761636245
Total78277856788379258318849191309423981910086103671055510555105951051310398103221032897289747973997809821985798859906
Feedstock
Gas430448436411459423401467460410404404404404404404404404404404404404404404404404-6.0%Forecast
unchanged
Total430448436411459423401467460410404404404404404404404404404404404404404404404404-6.0%
Feedstock CO2 Emissions
Gas98910301003945105697392210741058943929929929929929929929929929929929929929929929929
Total98910301003945105697392210741058943929929929929929929929929929929929929929929929929
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel, as reckoned for Kyoto
(excluding bunkers)
Coal79187746762071796864687477537362733763627136675765846456635362676195612934473389318931373085303329822931-59.7%Emission
factor 3.586
Oil1147412490132421321814868150331587017214197142222022050224922291423167234352321923396235692374023904241102431824536247482500525273110.1%Different
coefficients for oil used in different sectors reflecting
differences in type of oil
LPG394407388391407394372380383394412408405402398395392388385382379376373370367365-3.7%Emission
factor 2.67
Gas4339447044445063517255196250653166086910792083318965948496011036810705112381290513481139371423214487147301498015231221.2%The
emissions from gas used by NET are divided by 3. Standard factor
2.3
Peat60375690588753505526543948194629441540583602435843214285424842124176413941034067409840233948387337993724-32.1%Emission
factor from households 4.3, from electricity 4.815
Total301613080331582312003283633260350643611738456399434112042345431894379344037444604486345463445804522345714460854643046754471334752351.6%
% on
19900.00%2.13%4.71%3.44%8.87%10.27%16.26%19.75%27.50%32.43%36.33%40.40%43.19%45.20%46.00%47.41%48.74%50.73%47.81%49.94%51.56%52.80%53.94%55.01%56.27%57.56%
Power Generation Emission
Factor10.3110.5010.4910.3510.5010.1410.019.739.689.258.858.798.468.227.837.577.257.056.216.045.865.815.775.735.695.65Allows
for differences in emission factor by fuel and overall fuel
efficiency in electricity
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector
Energy Transformation
Energy transformation
losses331365457368407480372400384518415494500510518520532537545570579586591595598602
Residential1025210242101919846100881009710441103171081610849110661132911448115311151011561115301157011148111851115711155111411112611115111058.8%
Commercial and
Public4756507553315415590857906027612864316699696273347553761575537567767178177580772478247945806181608278838664.5%
Agriculture103710791112111712311183118011561231121512881177124212211194123712001172111010961084108110781076107310714.5%
Transport496851565605558358296246699376208716963310092105281096211391118191224712679131101354013971144021460914808150121525515523189.9%
Industry7827785678837925831884919130942398191008610367105551055510595105131039810322103289728974797399780982198579885990624.4%
Feedstock98910301003945105697392210741058943929929929929929929929929929929929929929929929929
Total301612977330580302553178032287341423504337398390004019141416422604286443108435314393444534436514429444784451564550145825462044659448.5%*
% change on
19900.00%-1.29%1.39%0.31%5.37%7.05%13.20%16.19%23.99%29.31%33.25%37.31%40.11%42.11%42.92%44.33%45.66%47.65%44.73%46.86%48.48%49.71%50.86%51.93%53.19%54.48%
Greenhouse Gas Emissions CO2 equivalent - ESRI Estimates of
CO2
Forecast Cattle Numbers
(Teagasc)7.096.716.466.46.346.256.146.076.015.965.915.875.875.875.875.875.87
CO2 -
Energy3016129773305803025531780323893362635043373983900040191414164226042864431084353143934445344365144294447844515645501458254620446594
CO2 - Industrial
processes19311954196518782141204120032264225026923133322133123405350035993700380439104020413342494369449146174747
CO2 -
Solvents6771717171717171624936363636363636363636363636363636
Methane1283612992130301309913159133111355913747136311338412666121941208111968117981159011458113451125111156110811108111081110811108111081
N2O908689198860902192919505966095481006698479629963896479655966496739682969197009709971997289737974697559764
Other00000000000000000000
Sinks-5020-5176-5376-5586-5724-5913-6065-6271-6448-6741-7033-7221-7415-7614-7818-8028-8243-8464-8691-8924-9163-9409-9661-9920-10186-10459
Adjusted
sinks0-156-355-566-704-893-1045-1251-1428-1721-2013-2201-2395-2594-2798-3008-3223-3444-3671-3904-4143-4389-4641-4900-5166-5439
Total5408153553541505375855739564235787459422619796325163642643046494065334653086542165587659666487865312656096586166081662786652766782
percentage change on
19900.00%-0.98%0.13%-0.60%3.07%4.33%7.01%9.88%14.60%16.96%17.68%18.90%20.08%20.81%20.76%20.97%21.28%21.98%19.96%20.77%21.32%21.78%22.19%22.55%23.01%23.49%
DOE data 2000
Greenhouse Gas Emissions CO2 equivalent - DOE
CO23157532256328933242133987345013570038071400194134742675434734428645114459584681847695485894949950427513735188152364528285335453894
Methane1283612992130301309913159133111355913747136311338413137130381294112844127481265212557124631237012277121851209412003119131182411736
N2O908689198860902192919505966095481006698479629963896479655966496739682969197009709971997289737974697559764
Other
Net
sinks-5020-5175.58-5375.52-5586.25-5723.95-5913.47-6064.58-6271.29-6448.39-6740.62-7032.85-7221.4136882568-7415.033117007-7613.8438399841-7817.9850453672-8027.5996532276-8242.8344155873-8463.840019161-8690.7711908522-8923.7868060784-9163.05-9408.7282817324-9660.9936516193-9920.0227216514-10185.9968391124-10459.1022135418
Adjusted
sinks0-156-355-566-704-893-1045-1251-1428-1721-2013-2201-2395-2594-2798-3008-3223-3444-3671-3904-4143-4389-4641-4900-5166-5439
Total5349754011544275397555733564235787460115622876285863428639476447865019655726613666712673006789968510691346931469463695876976769955
percentage change on
19900.00%0.96%1.74%0.89%4.18%5.47%8.18%12.37%16.43%17.50%18.56%19.53%20.53%21.54%22.57%23.63%24.70%25.80%26.92%28.06%29.23%29.57%29.84%30.08%30.41%30.76%
DOE data 2000
Greenhouse Gas Emissions, DOE
in GgDOE 2010
CO2
From Energy -
sectoral29577.4630230.8630856.7430472.2531774.8132389.1533626.173573637707386073950640216409384167442422431844396044750455534637247205475964795948301487014911259.6%4766961.2%
From industrial
processes1930.591954.191964.741877.722141.122040.692002.562264225026923133322133123405350035993700380439104020413342494369449146174747
Solvents66.5971.1771.1771.1771.1771.1771.1771624936363636363636363636363636363636
CO2 -
Gross31574.6432256.2232892.6532421.1433987.134501.0135699.938070.7940019.434134742675434734428645114459584681847695485894949950427513735188152364528285335453894
Net
sinks-5020.06-5175.58-5375.52-5586.25-5723.95-5913.47-6064.58-6271-6448-6741-7033-7221-7415-7614-7818-8028-8243-8464-8691-8924-9163-9409-9661-9920-10186-10459
CO2 -
Total26554.5827080.6427517.1326834.8928263.1528587.5429635.3231799.533571.043460735642362513687137500381403879139452401254080941504422104247242703429084316843435
Methane611.25618.66620.49623.78626.63633.86645.67655649637626621616612607602598593589585580576572567563559-5.1%837.8137.1%
N2O29.3128.7728.5829.129.9730.6631.1630.832323131313131313131313131.3531313131317.0%24.64-15.9%
NOx00000000000000000000000000
CO00000000000000000000000000
NMVOC00000000000000000000000000
SO200000000000000000000000000
Other
Ratio of DOE CO2 from energy to
ESRI0.98061.01541.00911.00720.99981.00001.00001.01981.00830.98990.98301.04971.04791.05251.06611.07551.08561.09101.13401.13851.14711.14891.15081.15281.15471.1567
Kyoto, excluding bunkers
Emission factors by fuel:Tonnes of CO2 per TOE
Coal3.586
Oil - private transport3
Oil - public transport3.069
Oil - air transport: Kerosene02.98
Oil - Electricity3.18
Oil - other3.05
LPG2.66
Gas2.30
Gas - NET2.30
Peat - domestic4.14
Peat - electricity4.83
Conversion from weight to carbon equivalent:
Methane21
N20310
Joc's Heat Analysis
Residential Heat
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Change
on 1990average growth:2000-20052005-20102010-2015Compound
growth
Coal6346205024073082693643543203023293163022892752622482352212081541401261139985
Oil excluding
LPG2793173133304445065836056898328408649059279629961011102510371049107510871106112711481169
Gas117161187217239252303286339387439482509555587621658695734774808825836845854863
LPG7073697071686466667175747372717068676665646463626160
Peat725621645612612606484462463324299290282273264255247238229220228210192174156138
Other
Ren4243384049505441414343424241404039393838373636353534
Total18671835175416761723175118521814191819592025206821132156220022442272229923272354236623622358235523522349
Commercial & Public Heat
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Change
on 1990average growth:2000-20052005-20102010-2015Compound
growth
Coal11111110000000000000000000
Oil excluding
LPG6306396656657657176916817127497888198348468568708889079289469639821000101310281038
Gas87106126152169174201207226246288288301313325339354370388405422430438443450454
LPG911101011111010101211111111101010101010999999
Peat322914141191511644444444443333333
Other Ren77668890000000000000000000
Total76679382284896592092790995410111091112311501174119512231256129113301364139714251450146914891504
Industry HeatQ: Can we assume all oil goes for heat, and not
driving heavy machinery?
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Change
on 1990average growth:2000-20052005-20102010-2015Compound
growth
Coal25825316416512511022719019018519910772503524171296443221
Oil excluding
LPG586570621618740689665696708757745829856872880713706697688677666635605574543511
Gas372377364342304313310372396406479488498507517697708718729740750767784800817833
LPG6262606063625960616468686868686868686868686868686868
Other
Ren6061545770717795958888888888888888888888888888888888
Total13381323126312421302124513381413145015001579158015821585158815901587158415821579157715621547153215171502
Agriculture HeatQ: Can we assume all oil goes for heat, and not
driving heavy machinery?difficulty calculating - presumably oil is
divided between heat and driving equipment!
Oil215223227227259245239229245259280248265263262275270266261260259259259259259259
Other Renewables00000003344333333333333333
Total215223227227259245239232248263284251268266265278273269264263262262262262262262
Total Heat
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Change
on 1990average growth:2000-20052005-20102010-2015Compound
growth
Coal89387466757343438059254451048752842237433831028626524723021415814412911510186
Oil17101749182618402208215721782211235425972653276028612908296028542875289529152932296329632970297229772977
LPG141146139140145141133136137147154153151150149148147145144143142141140139138137
Gas57664467771171273981486596110391206125913081375142916571719178418511919198020222058208921212150
Peat00000000000000000000000000
Renewables10911198103127129140139139135135133133132131131130130129129128127127126126125
Total00000000000000000000000000
Renewables TPER by Sector
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Change
on 1990average growth:2000-20052005-20102010-2015Compound
growth
Electricity
generation60646864806269841161121141241341461581711862012192372742802852902963023.5667181443Set
at 10% of all electricity by 2010, otherwise
interpolatd8.47298341779.86226192291.9315151171
Residential4243384049505441414343424241404039393838373636353534
Commercial & Public77668890000000000000000000
Agriculture00000003344333333333333333
Transport00000000000000000000000000
Industry6061545770717795958888888888888888888888888888888888Forecast
unchangedCheck
Total169175166167207191209223255247249257267278289302316331348366402407412417422427
&L&D &T&CMedium-Term Review: 1999-2005 -
September Final Estimate&R&P
Elec. Demand
Electricity Demand, TFC, ktoeAverage Growth Rates:
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152000-20052005-20102010-2015
Residential3563733964024154264484584855205515756006176336496676867057247437577687787898003.32.71.5
Commercial &
Public2402602792852963093363603814114354695055195315415665896156406626756877007167334.54.12.1
Agriculture37384041424345475046494851515053525150505050505050501.5-1.1-0.0
Transport212222222223333333333333332.72.51.2
Industry397398420435452504541576610650689721752779809840869897925956987101210371061108311054.03.32.3
Total103210701137116512071284137214431528162917261816191019692026208521572226229823732445249825462592264126903.93.21.9
Gas Demand
Report199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152000-20052005-20102010-20152000-2010
Total Gas Demand
Total188719431932220122492400271728402873300434443622389841234175450846544886561158616060618862996404651366225.56.11.85.8
Feedstock4304484364114594234014674604104044044044044044044044044044044044044044044044040.00.00.00.0
Excluding
feedstock145714951496179017901977231623732413259430403218349437193771410442504482520754575656578458956000610962186.26.61.96.4
Gas Demand, Final Consumption
Transmission
Losses2741333021565247304331535560636469717586909395969810015.67.02.111.2
Electricity, including
CHP854811786104910571182145014611422151218031906213022842278238324622627328134533586366937433815389039685.78.52.07.1
Residential1171611872172392523032863393874394825095555876216586957347748088258368458548637.25.41.36.3
Commercial &
Public871061261521691742012072262462882883013133253393543703884054224304384434504543.34.51.53.9
Agricultural00000000000000000000000000
Transport00000000000000000000000000
Industry3723773643423043133103723964064794884985075176977087187297407507677848008178337.81.52.14.6
Feedstock4304484364114594234014674604104044044044044044044044044044044044044044044044040.00.00.00.0
Total188719431932220122492400271728402873300434443622389841234175450846544886561158616060618862996404651366225.56.11.85.8
of which:
CHP18345167841001021041071091111411712002306857237617998378759441014108311531222
Assigning a quarter of CHP to commercial and three quarters to
industry
Consumption excluding CHP
Commercial &
Public8297113135148149175181199219260253259263267167173180188196203194184173161148
Industry368368351325283288284346369379451453455457460526527528529530532531530530529528
Gas Demand, Primary energy, ktoe
Electricity85481178610491057118214501461142215121803190621302284227823832462262732813453358636693743381538903968
Residential122171196226246271322302350403450502531579613645684723764809844863874884894903
Commercial &
Public91113132158174187214218233256295300314327339352368385404423441450458464470475
Agricultural00000000000000000000000000
Transport00000000000000000000000000
Industry389401382356313337330392408423491509519529540724736747758773784802820837855872
Feedstock430448436411459423401467460410404404404404404404404404404404404404404404404404
Total18871943193222012249240027172840287330043444362238984123417545084654488656115861606061886299640465136622
Report
Report199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152000-20052005-20102010-20152000-2010
ENERGY
Total primary energy requirement by fuel, TOE(000)
Coal220821602125200219141917216220532046177419901884183618001772174817271709961945889875860846832817
Oil413644924769478952755307562660796905780577737948811782318349830983978484857186558754883489189000909992031.31.01.01.2
LPG148153146147153148140143144148155154152151150148147146145144143141140139138137-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.8
Gas (incl
Feedstock)188719431932220122492400271728402873300434443622389841234175450846544886561158616060618862996404651366225.56.11.85.8
Peat135812711313119712331214106910269818877899449359279189099008928838748818638458278097912.9-0.6-2.11.1
Ren. &
Hydro1691751661672071912092232552472492572672782893023163313483664024074124174224273.95.91.24.9
Total Primary Energy
Requirement947697461001510092105721075411522118971274413455139951440514801151051524815519157391604416114164411672516905170711722917409175932.11.51.01.8
Total primary energy requirement by sector, TOE(000)
Residential29803025302329723089312432843242342635503633373338073869390939513968401539874038406740874100411241254139
Commercial &
Public15171622170517641930190420022035214422492365247825712609262026372687275627672840289829482995303530833127
Agricultural332345355360397382383380406403430390414408402417405397383379377376375374374373
Transport20622157234123592388250127943032342038023980414943184485465248214989515753265494566257435820590059956099
Industry25852599259426392770284530623211335034533590365836953736375737853781381137433781381338433872389939243946
Total excluding
feedstock94769749100181009410574107561152411899127461345713998144081480415108153401561115831161361620616533168161699617162173211750017685
Feedstock430448436411459423401467460410404404404404404404404404404404404404404404404404
Total Primary Energy
Requirement990610197104541050511033111791192512366132061386714402148121520815512157441601516235165401661016937172201740017566177251790418089
Total final consumption of energy by fuel, TOE(000)`, excluding
feedstock
Coal89387466757343438059254451048752842237433831028626524723021415814412911510186-11.6-11.1-11.4
Oil372638624115414945464609492051815704634165636839710873227541760277917979816683518550863087148796889589993.02.41.0
LPG148153146147153148140143144148155154152151150148147146145144143141140139138137-0.8-0.8-0.8
Gas576644677711712739814865961103912061259130813751429165717191784185119191980202220582089212121506.63.61.7
Peat757650659626623615499473469328303294285277268259250242233224231213195177159141-3.1-2.2-9.4
Electricity103210701137116512071284137214431528162917261816191019692026208521572226229823732445249825462592264126903.93.21.9
Renewables
(heat)10911198103127129140139139135135133133132131131130130129129128127127126126125-0.6-0.4-0.4
TFC72417364749974747802790484778788945510107106161091711271115651185612168124611275313052133531363513776139091403414180143292.82.31.0
Total final consumption of energy by sector, TOE(000)
Residential22232208215020782138217723002272240324792576264327122772283328932939298530323078310931193127313331413149
Commercial &
Public10061053110111331261122912631269133514221526159216551693172517631822188019442004205921002138216922052236
Agricultural252261267268301288284279298309333299319317315330325320315313312312312312312312
Transport (incl
LPG)20252121229823182348246127512979335937473913408242514418458547514919508752555423559056715748582759226026
Industry17351721168316771754174918791989206021502268230123342364239824302456248025072535256425752584259326002607
Total7241736474997474780279048477878894551010710616109171127111565118561216812461127531305213353136351377613909140341418014329
Greenhouse Gases
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector
Energy transformation
losses331365457368407480372400384518415494500510518520532537545570579586591595598602
Residential102521024210191984610088100971044110317108161084911066113291144811531115101156111530115701114811185111571115511141111261111511105
Commercial and
Public47565075533154155908579060276128643166996962733475537615755375677671781775807724782479458061816082788386
Agriculture10371079111211171231118311801156123112151288117712421221119412371200117211101096108410811078107610731071
Transport496851565605558358296246699376208716963310092105281096211391118191224712679131101354013971144021460914808150121525515523
Industry78277856788379258318849191309423981910086103671055510555105951051310398103221032897289747973997809821985798859906
Feedstock98910301003945105697392210741058943929929929929929929929929929929929929929929929929
Total3016129773305803025531780322873414235043373983900040191414164226042864431084353143934445344365144294447844515645501458254620446594
% change on
19900.0%-1.3%1.4%0.3%5.4%7.0%13.2%16.2%24.0%29.3%33.3%37.3%40.1%42.1%42.9%44.3%45.7%47.7%44.7%46.9%48.5%49.7%50.9%51.9%53.2%54.5%
Greenhouse Gas Emissions CO2 equivalent - ESRI Estimates of
CO2
CO2 -
Energy3016129773305803025531780323893362635043373983900040191414164226042864431084353143934445344365144294447844515645501458254620446594
CO2 - Industrial
processes19311954196518782141204120032264225026923133322133123405350035993700380439104020413342494369449146174747
CO2 -
Solvents6771717171717171624936363636363636363636363636363636
CO23215931798326153220433993345013570037378397114174143359446734560746304466434716547669483734759748350489534944149905503525085751377
Methane1283612992130301309913159133111355913747136311338412666121941208111968117981159011458113451125111156110811108111081110811108111081
N2O908689198860902192919505966095481006698479629963896479655966496739682969197009709971997289737974697559764
Adjusted
sinks0-156-355-566-704-893-1045-1251-1428-1721-2013-2201-2395-2594-2798-3008-3223-3444-3671-3904-4143-4389-4641-4900-5166-5439
Total5408153553541505375855739564235787459422619796325163642643046494065334653086542165587659666487865312656096586166081662786652766782
percentage change on
19900.0%-1.0%0.1%-0.6%3.1%4.3%7.0%9.9%14.6%17.0%17.7%18.9%20.1%20.8%20.8%21.0%21.3%22.0%20.0%20.8%21.3%21.8%22.2%22.6%23.0%23.5%
DOE data 2000
Greenhouse Gas Emissions CO2 equivalent - DOE
CO23157532256328933242133987345013570038071400194134742675434734428645114459584681847695485894949950427513735188152364528285335453894
Methane1283612992130301309913159133111355913747136311338413137130381294112844127481265212557124631237012277121851209412003119131182411736
N2O908689198860902192919505966095481006698479629963896479655966496739682969197009709971997289737974697559764
Adjusted
sinks0-156-355-566-704-893-1045-1251-1428-1721-2013-2201-2395-2594-2798-3008-3223-3444-3671-3904-4143-4389-4641-4900-5166-5439
Total5349754011544275397555733564235787460115622876285863428639476447865019655726613666712673006789968510691346931469463695876976769955
percentage change on
19900.0%1.0%1.7%0.9%4.2%5.5%8.2%12.4%16.4%17.5%18.6%19.5%20.5%21.5%22.6%23.6%24.7%25.8%26.9%28.1%29.2%29.6%29.8%30.1%30.4%30.8%
Emission factors by fuel:
Coal3.586
Oil - private transport3
Oil - public transport3.069
Oil - air transport: Kerosene0
Oil - Electricity3.18
Oil - other3.05
LPG2.66
Gas2.3
Gas - NET2.3
Peat - domestic4.14
Peat - electricity4.83
Conversion from weight to carbon equivalent:
Methane21
N20310
WARNING 2106
Condition number exceeds the current user-set CONOPT
CONDWARN.
2 : LOG(EN1I_T+EN4I_T+EN6I_T) = A1+A2*LOG(LIMT)+A3*TYEAR
NOB = 17 NOVAR = 3 NCOEF = 3
RANGE: 1980A to 1996A
RSQ = 0.850646 CRSQ = 0.829309
F(2/14) = 39.868381 PROB>F = 0
SER = 0.045371 SSR = 0.028819
DW(0) = 1.895522 COND = 994.615319
MAX:HAT = 0.398634 RSTUDENT = 3.460124
DFFITS = 1.326661
COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>|T|
A1 44.098113 4.480513 9.842202 0
A2 0.529811 0.191762 2.762857 0.015255
A3 -0.020015 0.002272 -8.809825 0
OLSMOD Command:
Elasticity of industrial energy wrt LIMT0.529811
Elasticity of industrial energy wrt time-0.020015
&RPage &P
Notes
Households% Cen. Heat. ExistNew Housholds% of newOld houses% of
oldTotal cen heatTotal
TotalCentral H.TotalCentral H.TotalCentral H.
1987992.251151.5
19941083.731814188674168.491.5318141886829099265966.4
19971152.360196951884273.168.62838276336290108478072
20001250.0268845506101581.297.66668759889395115292280
20051430.7020357667127288.9180.6751512161172951250110088
20101630.1135686204147790.6199.4115328537189951431128890
2010/199741.575.4190.6206.732.065.0
average annual % growth 1997-2010
4.4
Assume that all gas households have central heating and that the
rest of those with central heating use oil. Then taking the above
forecast for central heating forecast oil use at constant
consumption per boiler
1994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Central Heating
boilers7408429009571015106411131163121212611299133613741411144914691489150915291549
Gas
Households279302327354389411447473501530560592624651665674682689696
Implied oil C. heating
households563598630661675703715738760768776782787798804815827840853
Oil&LPG
consumption671755903915938978998103310661080109311041114113911501168118812091229
oil per
boiler1.191.261.431.381.391.391.401.401.401.411.411.411.421.431.431.431.441.441.44
ESBI Residential energy forecast - non-electricityESBI
Residential energy forecast - oil & gas
average annual % growth 1997-2010average annual % growth
1997-2010
3.13.7
19982010% change
Population3705416512.4
Household electricity consumption48574353.2
Consumption per head0.13090418350.178379667536.3
Installed CHP Capacity200020052010
Gas consumption by CHPKTOE111685875
Load factor90.00%90.00%90.00%
Number of hours per year876087608760
Gas per hourKTOE0.01407914760.086884830.1109842719
Proportion used for electricity60.00%60.00%60.00%
Efficiency of conversion66.00%66.00%66.00%
Electricity per hourKTOE0.00557534250.03440639270.0439497717
Mwh per TOE11.62811.62811.628
Electricity per hourMwh65400511
Residential Sector Energy Consumption
19972000200520102015
1.97160575832.0607556782.02215676741.90713371921.8075454095
Web farms
thermsktoe
55139
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
CHP gas6857237617998378759441014108311531222
alcan's428.125428.125428.125428.125428.125428.125428.125428.125428.125428.125428.125
total
non-alcan256.875294.875332.875370.875408.875446.875516.3295454545585.7840909091655.2386363636724.6931818182794.1477272727
non-alcan
industry192.65625221.15625249.65625278.15625306.65625335.15625387.2471590909439.3380681818491.4289772727543.5198863636595.6107954545
non-alcan
commercial64.2187573.7187583.2187592.71875102.21875111.71875129.0823863636146.4460227273163.8096590909181.1732954545198.5369318182
Industry share incl.
Alcan0.906250.89803769020.89064553220.88395650810.87787485070.87232142860.86332599380.85556296510.84879531340.84284313150.8375674042
Heat - Industry share incl.
Alcan0.36250.35921507610.35625821290.35358260330.35114994030.34892857140.34533039750.3422251860.33951812540.33713725260.3350269617
Heat - commercial
share0.03750.04078492390.04374178710.04641739670.04885005970.05107142860.05466960250.0577748140.06048187460.06286274740.0649730383
&L&D &T&CMedium-Term Review: 1999-2005 -
September Final Estimate&R&P
Notation
Assumptions - from Macro-Model
GNPGNP
ConsumptionC
Gross Output TQGIMT
Real personal disposable incomeYRPERD
Commercial and Public EmploymentLSM+LSN
Ag OutputQAG
Employment in manufacturing - LIMTLIMT
Industry, GDP at constant prices - OIOI
Traditional Manufacturing, gross output at constant prices -
QGIMDQGIMD
Food Processing Manufacturing, gross output at constant prices -
QGIMFQGIMF
High Tech. Manufacturing, gross output at constant prices -
QGIMHQGIMH
HouseholdsHOUSEH_CEN
Persons per householdNT/HOUSEH_CEN
Population > 15NT-NLE14
Population 15-64N1564
GNP elasticity of TFC
Summary of Energy Consumption for the economy:
TPER by Fuel including feedstock
CoalEN1TD_T
OilEN4TD_T
LPG
Gas (incl Feedstock)EN6TD_T
PeatEN8TD-T
Ren. & HydroEN7TD_T+EN9TD_T
Total Primary Energy RequirementENTD_T
TPER excluding feedstockENTD_T-EN6IMCHF_T
TPER by Sector including transformation losses
ResidentialENC_T
Commercial & PublicENS_T
Agricultural
TransportENST_T
IndustryENI_T
Adjustment for CHP used for electricity
TotalENFD_T
CHP - Total Gas used
Assumed share to heat - CommercialENCHS
Assumed share to heat - Industrial1-ENCHS
Assumed share to electricityENGEFF6C
Efficiency - heatENGEF6CH
Efficiency - electricity1
Electricity - fuels consumed by generation
CoalEN1E_T
OilEN43E_T
GasEN6E_T
Gas - CHPEN6CH_T
Gas - Non CHPEN6NH_T
PeatEN8E_T
Ren & HydroEN7E_T+EN9E_T
TotalENE_T
Renewables share of total electricity consumed
Electricity produced from
CoalEN7G1_T
OilEN7G43_T
GasEN7G6_T
Gas - CHPEN7GCH6_T
Gas - Non CHPEN7GNH6_T
PeatEN7G8_T
Ren & HydroEN7QD_T+EN7G9_T
Total electricity generatedEN7GEN_T
Actual electricity generatedEN7TGEN_T
Total electricity demandEN7FC_T
Electricity Sector Emissions of CO2
Coal
Oil
Gas
Peat
Total
Energy Transformation Sector own consumption / transmission
losses
Coal
OilEN4TRLOS_T
GasEN6TRLOS_T
PeatEN8TRLOS_T
Electricity - losses in transmission etc.EN7FC_T*EN7LOSS_T
Losses in conversion into electricityENE_T-EN7TGEN_T
Losses in transformation, MTOEENTRLOS_T
Transformation Sector (non elec) Emissions of CO2
Oil
Gas
Peat
Total
Percentage transformation loss by fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Peat
Electricity - losses in transmission etc.
TFC by Fuel excluding feedstock. This is derived by adding the
TFC by individual sectors.
CoalEN1FC_T
OilEN4FC_T
LPG
GasEN6FC_T
PeatEN8FC_T
ElectricityEN7FC_T
Ren. & HydroEN9FC_T
TFCENFC_T
Change on 1990 %
TFC by Sector
ResidentialENC_T
Commercial & PublicENS_T
Agricultural
Transport (incl LPG)ENST_T
Public Transport
Private Transport
Air Transport
IndustryENI_T
TFCENFC_T
Residential
Residential TPER
CoalEN1CTD_T
Oil including LPGEN4CTD_T
GasEN6CTD_T
PeatEN8CTD_T
ElectricityEN7CTD_T
Other RenEN9CTD_T
TotalENCTD_T
Residential TFC
CoalEN1C_T
Oil including LPGEN4C_T
Oil excluding LPG
GasEN6C_T
LPG
PeatEN8C_T
ElectricityEN7C_T
Other RenEN9C_T
TotalENC_T
Non-electricity consumption per
household(ENC_T-EN7C_T)/HSTOCK1
Number of HouseholdsHSTOCK1
Share of households in gas regionEN6CSHR
Households in Gas RegionHSTOCK1*EN6CSHR
Households with Local GasHSTOCK1*EN6CSHR*EN6CACC
Local Gas / Gas RegionEN6CACC
Number of Household CustomersHSTOCK1*EN6CSHR*EN6CACC*EN6CPEN
Gas PenetrationEN6CPEN
Consumption Elasticity of Residential Electricity
Residential electricity - elasticity wrt
Real personal disposable income
Households
Household size
oil central heating boilers
Gas use per customer
oil use per boiler
Residential CO2 emissions
Coal
Oil excluding LPG
Gas
LPG
Peat
Electricity
Total
Commercial & Public TPER
CoalEN1STD_T
Oil including LPGEN4STD_T
GasEN6STD_T
PeatEN8STD_T
ElectricityEN7STD_T
Other RenEN9STD_T
TotalENSTD_T
Commercial & Public
CoalEN1S_T
Oil including LPGEN4S_T
Oil excluding LPG
GasEN6S_T
Gas - CHP heat
Gas - CHP electricity
Gas - Non CHP
LPG
PeatEN8S_T
ElectricityEN7S_T
Other RenEN9S_T
TotalENS_T
Comm. & Pub. Emp.
Non-electricity Energy/Emp Ratio
Gas Share of Non-Elec
Cons Elasticity of Comm. Elec.
Commercial CO2 emissions
Coal
Oil excluding LPG
Gas
LPG
Peat
Electricity
Total
Agriculture TPER
Oil
Electricity
Renewables
Total
Agriculture
Oil
Other Renewables
Electricity
Total
Ag Output
Energy/Output Ratio
Agriculture CO2 Emissions
Oil
Electricity
Total
Transport TPER
Oil
Electricity
Total
Public Transport
Oil
Electricity
Total
Private Transport
Oil
LPG
Total
LPG elasticity
Forecast stock of cars
Memorandum items
Cars per person > 15
Price of Cars
Stock of Cars using own model
Cars per person > 15
Air Transport
Kerosene
Total
Transport CO2 Emissions
Public -oil
Private - oil
LPG
Kerosene
Electricity
Total
Industry TPER
Coal
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Renewables
Total
Industry excluding feedstock
Coal
Oil including LPG
Oil excluding LPG
Gas
Gas - CHP
Gas - Non CHP
LPG
Electricity
Traditional
High Tech
Food Processing
Building & Utilites
Other Ren
Total non electricity energy
Total
Elasticity of coal to QGIMD
LIMT
Elasticity of oil etc. to LIMT
Elasticity of oil etc. to time
OI
QGIMD
QGIMF
QGIMH
Additional gas needed for special sectors - e.g. web farms
Industry CO2 Emissions
Coal
Oil excluding LPG
Gas
LPG
Electricity
Total
Feedstock
Gas
Total
Feedstock CO2 Emissions
Gas
Total
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel, as reckoned for Kyoto
(excluding bunkers)
Coal
Oil
LPG
Gas
Peat
Total
% on 1990
Power Generation Emission Factor
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector
Energy Transformation
Energy transformation losses
Residential
Commercial and Public
Agriculture
Transport
Industry
Feedstock
Total
% change on 1990
Greenhouse Gas Emissions CO2 equivalent - ESRI Estimates of
CO2
CO2
Methane
N2O
Other
Sinks
Adjusted sinks
Total
percentage change on 1990
Greenhouse Gas Emissions CO2 equivalent - ESRI Estimates of CO2,
benchmarked on DOE 1998
CO2
Methane
N2O
Other
Sinks
Adjusted sinks
Total
percentage change on 1990
DOE data 6/9/1998
Greenhouse Gas Emissions CO2 equivalent - DOE
CO2
Methane
N2O
Other
Net sinks
Adjusted sinks
Total
percentage change on 1990
DOE data 6/9/1998
Greenhouse Gas Emissions, DOE
in Gg
CO2
From Energy - sectoral
From industrial processes
Solvents
CO2 - Gross
Net sinks
CO2 - Total
Methane
N2O
NOx
CO
NMVOC
SO2
Other
Ratio of DOE CO2 to ESRI
Emission factors by fuel:
Coal
Oil - private transport
Oil - public transport
Oil - air transport: Kerosene
Oil - Electricity
Oil - other
LPG
Gas
Gas - NET
Peat - domestic
Peat - electricity
Conversion from weight to carbon equivalent:
Methane
N20
TPERbyFuel
111111
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
Year
kTOE
Fig 1 TPER by Fuel
TPERbySector
2979.54890873241517.4128141733332.07061097042062.03770175252584.6001136252
3025.2596311931621.9642917628345.18404774052157.15533806032599.3747225783
3023.21742033341704.6028906529354.81856241672341.25496214272593.8817013506
2972.10822902031764.0753528349359.92182321822359.14949408362639.1766299653
3089.06745465181929.5426176863397.39239101282388.01092336062770.2166358111
3124.23180824731903.5589630044382.11602722292500.95776987862845.0271729834
3283.95345511162001.6165545623383.23331614882793.81444819743061.6656406141
3242.09143027592034.691033976379.75307386253031.59660792253210.7287498177
3426.02068993962144.1388098074405.79922792263420.07121807053350.1481027772
3550.01968822272249.0039814511402.74684583783802.33594847383452.9833850965
3633.14490427322364.8918260325429.68183211733979.60598784373590.268354876
3732.53046235022477.7421435082390.40796554634148.58850110943658.2370183433
3806.5057226342570.9529516087413.58184228194317.56942510263695.0977520889
3868.81738986772609.3141002506407.99447153034485.12877372113736.329407915
3909.35621358492619.694284999401.53181385594652.29607063923757.3262949504
3950.96248828882637.3956350587417.09839559174820.67613858033785.2373875102
3968.38005743242687.1184847578405.28728772514989.12486362233780.7195616545
4014.84660664032756.0518929822397.2785237165157.44112878763810.53361043
3987.48400865452767.3097943681383.39325931565325.57193321373742.5037523353
4037.8162715712840.0689771353379.43460834325493.97147045723781.4284114898
4066.52544523362898.4423486181376.50858985675661.91505516013812.8491545725
4087.10012327232947.7522451509375.67433807265742.76878514843843.048396433
4100.27426371422994.5385036553374.92891128975820.42961601513872.2609033288
4112.28317890613034.7831326116374.24191929755899.86895089943899.3449000253
4125.39350139363082.5516505252373.58149676535995.00810025363923.6157147608
4139.43555601113127.1709844317372.95930717576099.35561671383945.8639158757
Residential
Commercial & Public
Agricultural
Transport
Industry
Year
kTOE
Fig2 TPER by Sector
ElectricityDemand
356240372397
373260381398
396279402420
402285412435
415296422452
426309432504
448336452541
458360472.097619168576
485381502.2056012557610
520411462.3175058064650
551435492.4618620739689
575.1034308288469.421889930647.82420290222.5787475157721.0747171462
599.6792190281504.93318400451.11931518322.69579531751.9196025225
616.9309300489519.09647633350.75248716522.7411652777779.4736027538
633.3556107766530.638094934950.45960427562.7777336062809.2139439102
649.3442894605540.819097100252.85860566622.8097103287839.5929146328
667.4571676245566.366959902851.95664458962.8893474137868.5150013878
685.8399969055589.379276589451.20826771162.9597864567896.6666693029
705.0404693709614.846876462250.38090448483.0365234512925.046622239
723.9135538034640.074795595250.09855849543.1112788132956.0195572657
742.9513151743661.760158436749.97287173873.1745238063987.2757375883
757.3851723002674.798556344149.94166220123.21205163631012.4699908605
768.0689070482687.361940391449.91428708183.24793277851036.94625735
778.0845346579700.22569746849.89076399223.28440318731060.5167922703
788.6828912602715.630137071949.87111082373.32775582981083.0949063022
799.7010593903732.568091608449.85534574983.37501379781104.9178075901
Residential
Commercial & Public
Agriculture
Transport
Industry
Year
kTOE
Electricity Demand
GeneratingFuelMix
Electricity Fuel Mix
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Change
on 1990average growth:2000-20052005-20102010-2015Compound
growth
Coal492481545534554575587564574481547547547547547547547547273273273273273273273273000-1302810900000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Oil1272082142112422322342994065064063693322952582211841471117437373737373700-11-300211100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Gas3383243174234294815876155996377568179451033103211191166126116321732180918601906195119982046Residual0810239697100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Peat150155159141149146144140131136124188188188188188241241241241241241241241241241Efficiency
of conversion on old plant is at average 1998. On new plant it is
37%095069800000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Ren &
Hydro6064686480626984116112114124134146158171186201219237274280285290296302Set
at 10% of all electricity by 2010, otherwise
interpolatd081026101000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Total Electricity
Generated11671232130413741453149516211702182618721947204421462209218222462323239824752556263426902742279228442898Historically
the sum of electricity generated by fuel, in forecast indexed to
actual el.
Generated033210010010000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
GeneratingFuelMix
00338.499060
00324.23064
00317.428068
00423.417064
00429.191080
00480.946062
00586.757069
00614.94084
00599.420116
00636.870112
00756.160114
00816.55299685280123.6592010962
00944.6781695940134.1368246996
001033.44236799390145.5022156134
001031.68272057630157.8305942148
001118.79726481960171.2035542907
001165.90374260110185.7096030563
001261.31457507310201.4447469284
001632.48137882240218.5131269315
001731.5767537460237.027707942
001809.03242085640274.0030886601
001859.8960036870279.9094383571
001905.9883659920285.2617473173
001950.85529326860290.4717570646
001997.79039722480295.9219263528
002045.88998696010301.5073173427
Coal
Oil
Gas
Peat
Ren & Hydro
Year
kTOE
Fuel-mix used in electricity generation
ElecDemandChart
356240372397
373260381398
396279402420
402285412435
415296422452
426309432504
448336452541
458360472.097619168576
485381502.2056012557610
520411462.3175058064650
551435492.4618620739689
575.1034308288469.421889930647.82420290222.5787475157721.0747171462
599.6792190281504.93318400451.11931518322.69579531751.9196025225
616.9309300489519.09647633350.75248716522.7411652777779.4736027538
633.3556107766530.638094934950.45960427562.7777336062809.2139439102
649.3442894605540.819097100252.85860566622.8097103287839.5929146328
667.4571676245566.366959902851.95664458962.8893474137868.5150013878
685.8399969055589.379276589451.20826771162.9597864567896.6666693029
705.0404693709614.846876462250.38090448483.0365234512925.046622239
723.9135538034640.074795595250.09855849543.1112788132956.0195572657
742.9513151743661.760158436749.97287173873.1745238063987.2757375883
757.3851723002674.798556344149.94166220123.21205163631012.4699908605
768.0689070482687.361940391449.91428708183.24793277851036.94625735
778.0845346579700.22569746849.89076399223.28440318731060.5167922703
788.6828912602715.630137071949.87111082373.32775582981083.0949063022
799.7010593903732.568091608449.85534574983.37501379781104.9178075901
Residential
Commercial & Public
Agriculture
Transport
Industry
Year
kTOE
Fig 5 Electricity Demand by Sector
ElectrictyDemand
Electricity Demand, TFC, ktoeAverage Growth Rates:
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Change
on 1990average growth:2000-20052005-20102010-2015Compound
growth
Residential356373396402415426448458485520551575600617633649667686705724743757768778789800108.7%indexed
to consumption modified be elasticity shown
below3.32.71.51.0303407481.6222
Commercial &
Public240260279285296309336360381411435469505519531541566589615640662675687700716733175.7%Indexed
to C with elasticity shown below
Agriculture373840414243454750464948515150535251505050505050505035.1%Forecast
as 16% of total
Transport2122222222233333333333333358.7%Elasticity wrt C
.66Check
Industry397398420435452504541576610650689721752779809840869897925956987101210371061108311051.48684065Elasticity
wrt OI .57
Total10321070113711651207128413721443152816291726181619101969202620852157222622982373244524982546259226412690
TFCbyFuel
8933726148575.87014925377571032109
8743862153643.84179104486501070111
6674115146676.8119402985659113798
5734149147710.77313432846261165103
4344546153711.7477611946231207127
3804609148738.74029850756151284129
59249201408144991372140
5445180.9023808321438654731443.097619168139
5105703.79439874441449614691528.2056012556139
4876340.682494193614810393281629.3175058064135
5286562.636738689154.901399237212063031726.4618620739135
422.18087853956838.8405925851153.55706216631258.8442593084294.21272727271816.0029883235133.355
373.99012744167108.1414317753152.24084730641308.2567901216285.42635454551910.3471160479132.719675
338.27446964667322.3423341573150.9540104551375.3111419159276.64086831821968.9946615786132.093879875
309.74780805157541.434433936149.69070430431429.3072633299267.85625529342026.4449875036131.4774716769
285.52774660677601.5431661261148.44668233591656.9125423816259.07250237312085.4246171884130.8703096017
265.4336852397790.9289945879147.2192560081719.1788984731250.28959665572157.185120918413
