: A service of the Southeast Climate

Consortium

C. Fraisse, D. Zierden, and J. Paz

Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop Chapel Hill, NC March 4-7 2008

History: First steps towards becoming providers of climate forecast information

User needs - Climate forecast information and decision support tools that are:

• Local

• Timely

• Come from a trusted source

• Grounded in physical processes

• Framed in historic context

Our expertise:

• Extensive research and knowledge of ENSO variability in the Southeast

• Weather-driven crop modeling (DSSAT)

• Strong engagement and assessment of user needs Bringing it all together -

partnership with USDA Risk Management Agency

First steps in 2004 First attempt to create a

web site in 2004, this initial version was used to discuss content and organization of the site.

Discussions in 2004 were dominated by database design, operational systems, and web site layout/contents

First interactions with Extension Services in the region

First versions of Decision Support Tools were developed in Visual Basic for presentation to Extension Agents before implementation in the web.

Our main concern was to have something to show when talking to Extension faculty and farmers.

Needs forSpecific

Commodities

Climate-basedManagement

options

Web-basedDSS

Crop ModelsClimate-based

tools

Interaction(Participation)

Interactions with Stakeholders – 2004/2005

ClimateForecast

Stand alonedecision-aid tools

FarmersCounty

Extension

First Online Version AgClimate goes

online during the last quarter of 2004

Most of 2005 was spend developing content for the system: decision support tools and adaptation strategies

Centerpieces: Climate tool and Crop yield tool

AgClimate 2007 Hosting, maintenance,

and development responsibilities have been transferred to University of Florida Extension.

Concerns in 2007 are more related to operational aspects and overall improvement of the system in terms of easiness to use, content, and coverage of commodities.

Climate and Agricultural Outlooks Outlooks are

delivered every 1-2 months and have been very successful with stakeholders

Climate and Agricultural Outlooks Agricultural outlooks

are written with input from Extension specialists and often contain management options.

AgClimate Tools

Recent Developments - Climate Cooling and

heating degree days forecast based on ENSO phase for all counties in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia

Recent Developments - Climate Probabilities for

extreme low and high temperatures, as requested by producers. Min/max average temperatures are not as useful as extreme values.

Recent Developments – Crop Yield Improved (and

simplified) crop yield risk tool incorporates suggestions received from Extension faculty during hands-on workshops.

Peanut, Potato, and Tomato

Better chances of high yield if planted earlier during La Nina years

Recent Developments - Irrigation ToolNet Returns ($/ac) for different planting dates and management (peanuts)

Our first attempt to have more information in terms of economic impacts, need to expand!

Plans for 2008 Improve

navigation Redesign

pages that are too busy or difficult to read

Improve help sections for the tools

New layout planned for July 2008

Outlooks and general Information Improve our operational capabilities to deliver

outlooks on time, difficult task in a academic environment but should improve under “Extension” supervision

Add a “drought” section is being discussed, we see the need for more specific information based on requests from stakeholders during the 2007 drought

Yield Risk Forecasting (based on crop models and ENSO climatology) New crops will be added:

Cotton - 2008 Corn - 2008 Pasture (Bermuda and Bahia grasses) - 2009

In-season Updates Stakeholders have asked for in-season updates

of specific climate-derived variables such as “growing degree days” and “chill hours accumulation”

Currently this information is offered by state weather networks and partnerships established with networks in Florida and Georgia will allow AgClimate to provide this service

In-season Updates: Chill Accumulation

Chill Hours 45˚F

0

100

200

300

400

500

Oct(1-15) Oct(16-31)Nov(1-15) Nov(16-30)Dec(1-15) Dec(16-31)Jan(1-15) Jan(16-31)Feb(1-15) Feb(16-28)Mar(1-15) Mar(16-31)Apr(1-15) Apr(16-30)

La Nina

2007-08

All Years Average

Chilling is a measure of the cool conditions that occur during the winter and promote rest and satisfaction of dormancy of crops

For producers, tracking accumulation is as important as forecasting, in order to decide about spraying

2007/08 Hillsborough County, FL

Climate Change Fact Sheets Extension agents have been asking for information and

educational materials about climate change Fact sheets are being produced covering the following

topics: Basics of Climate Change Potential impacts on the agricultural industry Adaptation and mitigation strategies

Additional concerns include sea level rise, carbon sequestration and trading mechanisms, and invasive species

Thank You!

A Service of the Southeast Climate Consortium