მაკროეკონომიკური პოლიტიკის გავლენა ეკონომიკის განვითარების ტენდენციებზე

Slide 1

CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Sinaarsi 2 / 212009.S i n a a r s i:ekonomikuri politikia da ekonomikuri azris ganviTarebamakroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri politikis Sefaseba (2002-2008 wlebi)


Tavi IIIIIIIQI. Ekonomikuri politikia da ekonomikuri azris ganviTareba 3 / 212009. saxelmwifo gamoxatavs sazogadoebas, raRac korporaciuli gagebiT, Sedegad is warmoadgens iuridiul pirs, romelsac gaaCnia ufleba-movaleobebi, romelsac SeuZlia dakavdes nebismieri saxis saqmianobiT iseve rogorc, nebismier sxva fizikur Tu iuridiul subieqts. saxelmwifo: Tavad axdens sxva korporaciebis sanqcirebas, magram Tavad legitimacias iRebs msgavsi bunebis sxva warmonaqmnebisagan - sazogadoebisagan; iRebs garkveul funqciebs, romelic rogorc suverenulma saxelmwifom mxolod man unda itvirtos; axorcielebs am funqciebs garkveul teritoriaze, sadac misi uflebebi eqskluziuri da aRiarebulia; nebismieri politika dasaxuli amocanebis gadaWris strategiuli da taqtikuri gzebis erTobliobaa.saxelmwifo ekonomikuri politikis arsi saxelmwifos ekonomikuri politika, rogorc sazogadoebis arCevani da Tanxmoba, ekonomikuri miznebis miRwevis stradtegiuli da taqtikuri gzebis erToblioba, romelzec gavlenas axdens, rogorc calkeul individebis ise sazogadoebis sxvadasxva jgufebis interesebi. CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQI. Ekonomikuri politikia da ekonomikuri azris ganviTareba 4 / 212009.makroekonomikuri politika warmoadgens makroekonomikuri miznebis miRwevis strategiuli da taqtikuri gzebis erTobliobas, romlis ZiriTadi miznebia:

ekonomikuri zrda;sruli dasaqmeba;ekonomikuri efeqturoba;fasebis stabilizacia;ekonomikuri Tavisufleba;Semosavlebis samarTliani ganawileba;ekonomikuri uzrunvelyofa; savaWro balansi. makroekonomikuri politika CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQI. Ekonomikuri politikia da ekonomikuri azris ganviTareba 5 / 212009.Tanamedrove saxelmwifo ekonomikuri politikis formireba

qsenofonte - exeba gacvlis ganviTarebisaTvis fulis maragebis aucileblobis sakiTxs.platoni da aristotele gamodian meurneobis marTvaSi saxelmwifos monawileobis sasargeblod da ayalibeben aristokratiuli komunizmis ideas.

merkantilistebia.monkretieni, J.bodeni, J.b.kolberi, p.l.buagilbergi, j.lou, a.r.jiusti da sxvebi.aqtiuri saxelmwifo politikisa da proteqcionistuli politikis momxreebi

fiziokratebi da klasikosebif.kene, a. tiurgo, v. marabo, v. diupon de nemuri, g. letroni da sxvebiu.peti, a.smiTi, d.rikardo, t.r.malTusi, J.s.moli da sxvebiaqtiuri saxelmwifo politikis winaRmdegi da Tavisufali bazris ideis momxreebi

a. smiTi da d. rikardoabsoluturi da SefardebiTi upiratsobis Teoriebi CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQI. Ekonomikuri politikia da ekonomikuri azris ganviTareba 6 / 212009.Tanamedrove saxelmwifo ekonomikuri politikis formirebai.fiSeri fulis raodenobrivi Teoria.fuli rogorc gadaxdis da mimoqcevis saSualebafulis masis regulirebis problema

i. fiSeri

k. viqselik.vikseli fulis masisa da saprocento ganakveTis kavSiris mikroekonomikuri kvleva

a. marSalia.marSali fulize moTxovna da fulze moTxovnis spekulaciuri dasifrTxilis motivebi

r. haurti da g. kaseli

k.haurti da kaseli oqros standartis pirobebSi fuls ara aqvs saSualeba adaptirdes garigebebze moTxovnebis Sesabamisad, misi stiqiurobisa da arakanonzomierebis gamo

t. peinisazogadoeba iqmneba Cveni moTxovnilebebis gamo, xolo mTavroba Cveni mankierebis gamo,sazogadoeba nebismier SemTxvevaSi keTildReobaa, xoloo mTavroba ukeTes SemTxvevaSi aucilebeli boroteba, xolo uares SemTxvevaSi autaneli boroteba.

f. bastiaf. bastia gamodis e.w. dakanonebuli Zarcvis winaaRmdeg, ris mixedviTac mTavroba kanonis ZaliT, romelsac is Tavad iRebs iTvisebs imas, rac mas ar uwarmoebia CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQI. Ekonomikuri politikia da ekonomikuri azris ganviTareba 7 / 212009.makroekonomikuri politikis formireba

j.m.keinsi

e.hanseni, j.hiksi da p.samuelsonr.xarodi da e.domari

r.solouneoklasikuri sinTezi zogadi TeoriaZiriTadi fsiqologiuri kanoniavtonomiuri xarjebis multiplikatorilikvidobis upiratesobis Teoriaanticikluri regulirebis sabiujeto-sakredito meqanizmiaqselerator-multiplikatoris modelebipostkeinzianelebikapitalaRWurva, rogorc ekonomikuri zrdis faqtori

e.felpsigrZelvadiani ekonomikuri zrdis Teoriamecnierul teqnikuri progresi, rogorc ekonomikuri zrdis faqtori;kapitalSeiararebis oqris wesiSromismwarmoebluroba, rogorc ekonomikuri zrdis faqtorin.kaldori, j.robinsoni

kembrijuli zrdis Teoria CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World


j.m.keinsizogadi TeoriaZiriTadi fsiqologiuri kanoniavtonomiuri xarjebis multiplikatorilikvidobis upiratesobis Teoria

j.k.gelbreiTiinstitucionalizmisaxelmwifos mxridan socialuri problemebis gadaWra CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQI. Ekonomikuri politikia da ekonomikuri azris ganviTareba 9 / 212009.makroekonomikuri politikis formireba(neoklasikuri mimarTulebebi)

j.m.keinsi

m.fridmani

t.sarJenti, r.lukasi , r.barouzogadi TeoriaZiriTadi fsiqologiuri kanoniavtonomiuri xarjebis multiplikatorilikvidobis upiratesobis Teoriamonetarizmi

f.naitiTavisufali bazris upiratesobapermanentuli Semosavlis Teoriafulze mdgradi moTxovnis Teoriaadaftiuri molodinis Toriaanticikluri sabiujeto-sakredito politikis winaaRmdegiminiapolisis skolaracionaluri molodinis Teoriaj.bukeneni, g.taloki, u.niskareni

sazogadoebrivi arCevnis Teoria

a.laferimiwodebis TeoriaCikagos skola

f.xaiekiavstriuli skolafasebis TeoriameTodologiuri individualizmifulis gansaxelmwifoebriobasocializmis krotika CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World


j.m.keinsizogadi TeoriaZiriTadi fsiqologiuri kanoniavtonomiuri xarjebis multiplikatorilikvidobis upiratesobis Teoria

ian tinbergeni

r.lukasiekonomikuri modelis saSualebiT ekonomiuri politikis instrumentebis gamoyenebis Sesabamisi parametrebis dadgenaarasrulyofilis infirmaciis modeliracionaluri molodinis Teorialukasis kritika CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 11 / 212009.monetaruli politikia CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 12 / 212009.keinzianuri koncefciakoncefciis eyrdnoba Semdeg mTavar hipoTezebs:efeqturi moTxovnis hipoTeza wonasworoba miiRweva mxolod im cvladebis cvlilebiT, romlebic moqmedeben efeqtian moTxovnaze da ara fasebis moqnili cvlilebiT. arsasruli dasaqmenbis mizezi saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze arasakmarisi efeqtiani moTxovnaa, romelic umetewilad gamowveulia investiciebis ukmarisobiT. xolo am ukanasknelis mTavar mizezi, saprocento ganakveTis maRali normaa;fulze moTxovnis ori komponentis gamijvna: transaqciuli moTxovna da spekulaciuri moTxovnaxisti nominaluri xelfasebis hipoTeza; xisti fasebis hipoTeza;

koncefciaSi monetaruli moqmedebis ori arxia:realuri saprocento ganakveTi;fasebis done;


Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 13 / 212009.keinzianuri koncefcia

realuri saprocento ganakveTis arxi:

likvidobis upiratesobis Teoriis mixedviTxisti fasebis hipoTezis gaTvaliswinebiT CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 14 / 212009.keinzianuri koncefciafasebis donis arxi: ekonomikis dinamikuri modeli

(IS)(LM)(sawarmoo funqcia)(Sromis miwodeba)(Sromaze moTxovna)(filifsis mrudi)

avtonomiuri jarjebi; likvidurobisaken zRvruli midrekileba; moxmarebisadmi zRvruli midrekileba.


Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 15 / 212009.keinzianuri koncefciafasebis donis arxi: ekonomikis dinamikuri modeli

- oukenis parametri.

- xisti xelfasebis hipoTezidan gamomdinare CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 16 / 212009.keinzianuri koncefcia 16Y0'YYs0Ys2Ys1YDYD1YD2YD0Y

YYsYYYdYs CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 17 / 212009.keinzianuri koncefcia

Seguebis procesi dasruldeba, roca

ramdenadac,


Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 18 / 212009.modilianis moxmarebis funqciaTu

sadac,


Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 19 / 212009.monetaristuli koncefciakoncefciis eyrdnoba Semdeg mTavar hipoTezebs:uxilavi xelis Teoriasfulis raodenobriv gantolebas moqnili nominaluri xelfasebis da fasebis hipoTeza;inflaciuri molodinis arsebobis hipoTezas;


Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 20 / 212009.monetaristuli koncefcia 20Y0'YYs0Ys2Ys1YD3YD1YD2YD0YYs3Y

YDYs CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 21 / 212009.monetaristuli koncefcia

Seguebis procesi dasruldeba, roca


Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 22 / 212009.racionaluri molodini da arasrulyofili informaciis modeliracionaluri molodinis Teoriis mixedviT molodini mTlianad saprognozo maCvenebelia da igi mxolod SemTxveviT SeiZleba aRmoCndes mcdari:

- prognozis SemTxveviTi Secdomaa

arasrulyofil informaciis pirobebSi arasrulyofilad afaseben inflaciis mosalodnel maCvenebels da Sedegad ver asxvaveben fardobiTi da nominaluri fasebis cvlilebas erTmaneTisagan, rac warmoebis zrdis mizezic xdeba:- realuri Sedegebi mxolod monetarulma Sokma SeiZleba gamoiwvios

- wonasworuli xelfasis mniSvneloba CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

preskotisa da kidlandis modelimolodini gavlenas axdens monetarul politikaze:

saxelmwifo cdilobs am funqciis optimizacias, Semdegi SezRudvebispirobebSi:

- socialuri sargeblianobis funqcia

Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 23 / 212009.

ACOoptimaluri wonasworobaSeTanxmebuli wonasworoba CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 24 / 212009.fulis sargeblianobis funqcia (MIU-modeli)fulis sargeblianobis funqciis gansazRvra:

- sargeblianobis funqcia

- transaqciuli drois xarjebis funqcia

moxmareba

Tavisufali dro

diskontirebis koeficienti

- mTliani drois maragi

or mosazRvre periodSi moxmarebisadmi upiratesobis miniWebis koeficienti CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 25 / 212009.fulis sargeblianobis funqcia (MIU-modeli)sabiujeto Sezrudva:

- nominaluri saprocento ganakveTi- Amortizaciis norma

1.

2.saxelmwifos wminda transfertisawarmoo funqciawminda investiciebidamatebul muSaxelze gaweuli xarjidanazogis zrda nominaluri fuladi saxiTobligaciebSi fuladi dabandebebi CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 26 / 212009.fulis sargeblianobis funqcia (MIU-modeli)optimizaciis amocana:


Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 27 / 212009.fulis sargeblianobis funqcia (MIU-modeli)modelis daskvnebi:

1.fulze moTxovnis funqcia

3.

2.Tuda gantolebebidan

da gantolebebidan


Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 28 / 212009.zemoT moyvanilis Teoriebis mizania:fuli aris neitraluri, Tu ara da SesaZlebelia, Tu ara monetaruli politikis gamoyeneba ekonomikur koniunqtureze gavlenis mosaxdenad;Tu SesaZlebelia monetaruli politikis gamoyeneba ekonomikur koniunqtureze gavlenis mosaxdenad, maSin rogoria monetaruli transmisiis meqanizmi da misi Sedegebi; CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 29 / 212009.fulis Tvisebebi gapirovnebuli valdebuleba _ vgulisxmob naRd fuls, radgan naRdi fulis mWeris winaSe konkretuli iuridiuli da fizikuri piri ar flobs valdebulebas, is sazogado valdebulebis mqone fasiani qaraldia, romelic swored sazogadoebis SeTanxmebis Sedegia.gaupirovnebeli valdebuleba _ gulisxmob iseT valdebulebas, romelic gulisxmobs fasiani qaRaldis mWeris mimarT konkretuli iuridiuli Tu fizikiri piris valdebulebas. fulis ori Tviseba: maRali likviduroba da Rirebulebis Senaxvis Tviseba ar axasiaTebs Tanabari xarisxiT fulis yvela saxeobas. naRdi fuli da moTxovnamde depozitebi ufro likviduria, vidre Semnaxveli depozitebi an vadiani depozitebi. magram es ukanasknelebi ufro momgebiania Rirebulebis Senaxvis kuTxiT. amis mixedviT fulad statistikaSi gamoyofen fulis oTx agregats.


Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 30 / 212009.monetaruli politikis instrumentebi da orientirebimonetaruli politikis Sualeduri orientirebi:

saprocento ganakveTi;fuladi agregatebi;gacvliTi kursebi;

monetaruli politikis instrumentebi:

sadiskonto ganakveTi;operaciebi Ria bazarze;savaldebulo sarazervo normebi;


Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 31 / 212009.monetaruli politika da sagareo ekonomikuri wonasworobagacvliTi kursis stabilurobis politikaerToblivi moTxovnis Sokis prevencia; ucxouri kapitalis nakadebsa da sagareo vaWrobis moculoba;devalvaciur molodins da arasrulyofili informaciis gamo didia riskebi saerTaSoriso finansuri Tu sasaqonlo operaciebis ganxorcielebis dros. fulze moTxovnis cvlilebaze reagireba;centraluri banki abalansebs erovnuli da ucxouri fulis miwodebasTavisufali mcuravi kursis politikamonetaruli Sokis eqsportis prevencia;egzogenurad warmoqmnili moTxovnis Sokebis nivelireba;CaSenebuli stabilizatori; CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 32 / 212009.mastabiluzirebeli monetaruli politikis problemebimonetaruli politika mniSvnelovan gavlenas axdens ekonomikis koniunqturaze moklevadian periodSi, Tumca garZelvadian periodSi mas fasebis donis cvlilebamde mivyavarT;informaciis miReba-gadamuSavebasa da gadawyvetilebis miReba-ganxorcielebas Soris sakmaod didi lagia;ekonomikuri agentebis mxridan centraluri bankis mimarT ndobis problema;

am viTarebaSi gamosavlad moiazreben:centraluri bankis mier garkveuli wesebiT moqmedeba da garkveuli valdebulebebis Sesruleba;centraluri bankis xelmZRvanelobisaTvis valdebulebis Sesrulebis stimulebis Seqmna;centraluri bankis damoukideblobis gafarToveba;centraluri bankis xelmZRvanelad iseTi adamianis damiSvna, romelic midrekili iqneba mkacro monetaruli politikis gatarebisaken. CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi III. saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri politikis Sefaseba (2002-2008 wlebi)33 / 212009.saqarTvelos monetaruli politika(2002-2008 wlebi) saqarTvelos erovnuli banki, saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis Sesaxeb, saqarTvelos organuli kanonis mixedviT:

fulad-sakredito da savaluto politikis SemmuSavebeli da ganmaxorcielebeli organoa. igi am politikas saqarTvelos parlamentis mier gansazRvruli ZiriTadi mimarTulebebis Sesabamisad SeimuSavebs da axorcielebs;

erovnuli bankis ZiriTadi mizani fasebis stabilurobis uzrunvelyofaa. Tumca erovnulma bankma xeli unda Seuwyos mdgard ekonomikur zrdas, Tu es SesaZlebelia ise, rom safrTxe ar Seeqmnas mis ZiriTad amocanas;

erovnuli bankis prezidenti pasuxismgebelia inflaciis maCvenebelze; CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi III. saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri politikis Sefaseba (2002-2008 wlebi)34 / 212009.saqarTvelos monetaruli politika(2002-2008 wlebi) saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis winaSe mdgari umniSvnelovanesi problemebi: fasebis arastabiluroba, ucxouri valutis didi raodenobiT Semodineba, dolarizacia;saSualo wliri2002-2008absoluturi zrda 2002-2008mimoqcevaSi erovnuli valuti moculoba21%3-jerinflacia7.5%1.55-jerrealuri mSp-s zrdis tempi8%1.61-jer


Tavi III. saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri politikis Sefaseba (2002-2008 wlebi)35 / 212009.saqarTvelos monetaruli politika(2002-2008 wlebi) ucxouri valutis didi raodenobiT Semodineba; ori mniSvnelovani uaryofiTi tendenciiT gamoiyofa: ucxouri valutis SemodinebiT erovnuli valutis kursis gamyareba auaresebs saqarTvelos savaWro pirobebs da aferxebs eqsportis zrdis tempebs; ucxouri savaluto rezervebis dagroveba da erovnuli valutis kursis stabilurobis uzrunvelyofa axdens inflaciur zewolas ekonomikaze da zrdis erovnuli valutis Warb miwodebs ekonomikaSi.


Tavi III. saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri politikis Sefaseba (2002-2008 wlebi)36 / 212009.saqarTvelos monetaruli politika(2002-2008 wlebi) dolarizacia;


Tavi III. saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri politikis Sefaseba (2002-2008 wlebi)37 / 212009.saqarTvelos monetaruli politika(2002-2008 wlebi) erovnulma bankma Secvala rigi instrumentebisa da gaafarTova monetaruli instrumentebi:2006 wlis maisidan SeimuSaves saxelmwifo obligaciebis auqcioni; 2006 wlis seqtembridan - erT wlamde vadianobis sadepozito sertifikatebi, romelis gayidvac auqconis wesiT xorcieldeba. (mis wilada fulis bazarze amoRebuli likvidonis naSTis didi wili modis da fulis masisa da saprocento ganakveTis regulirebisaTvis sakmaod moqnili instrumentia); 2007 wlis ivnisidan ZalaSi Sevida axali kanoni, romelic komerciuli bankebis mier ucxouri valutiT moziduli saxsrebis ucxourive valutiT darezervebis uflebas iZleva. adre darezerveba mxolod erovnul valutaSi xdeboda.2008 wlis seqtembridan SeimuSaves refinansirebis sesxebis instrumenti. CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi III. saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri politikis Sefaseba (2002-2008 wlebi)38 / 212009.saqarTvelos monetaruli politika(2002-2008 wlebi)

elastkurobis koeficientebia

- saprocento ganakvetisaTis gavlenis dasaxasiTeblad SeirCa sesxebze saSualo Sewonili saprocento ganakveTi;

- fuladi agregatis gavlenis dasaxasiTeblad M2 fuladi agregati;

- fasebis donis gavlenis dasaxasiTeblad samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi;

- realuri gacvliTi kursis gavlenis dasaxasiTeblad realuri efeqturi gacvliTi kursis indeqsi. CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi III. saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri politikis Sefaseba (2002-2008 wlebi)39 / 212009.saqarTvelos monetaruli politika(2002-2008 wlebi) modeliSi vakvirdebiT:multikolinialurobasavtokorelirebulobas


Tavi III. saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri politikis Sefaseba (2002-2008 wlebi)40 / 212009.saqarTvelos monetaruli politika(2002-2008 wlebi) CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi III. saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri politikis Sefaseba (2002-2008 wlebi)41 / 212009.saqarTvelos monetaruli politika(2002-2008 wlebi) modeliSi vakvirdebiT:multikolinialurobasarasakmarisia monacemebi

- stantardizebuli koeficientebi CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi III. saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri politikis Sefaseba (2002-2008 wlebi)42 / 212009.saqarTvelos monetaruli politika(2002-2008 wlebi)


Tavi III. saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri politikis Sefaseba (2002-2008 wlebi)43 / 212009.stimulirebuli bumi saqarTveloSiCatarebuli ekonometrikulikvleva gvaCvenebs, rom:fulis masis erTi procentiT zrda zrdis realuri mSp-s zrdis temps 0.35%-iT. realuri mSp-s zrdis tempTan dadebiT korelaciaSia fasebis done;realuri gacvliTi kursis indeqsis uaryofiTi korelacia realuri mSp-s zrdis mimarT. fulis masis da fasebis donis amgvari damokidebuleba realuri mSp-s zrdis mimarT mianiSnebs qveyanaSi monetaruli faqtorebuT gamowveyl stimulirebul bumis arsebobas. realuri gacvliTi kursis indeqsis uaryofiTi korelacias realuri mSp-s zrdis mimarT SeiZleba Semdegi interpretacia mivceT, rom ucxouri fuladi nakadebis Semodineba, romelic zrdis nominalur gacvliT kurss da maSasadame zrdis realur gacvliT kurs auaresebs sagareo vaWrobis pirobebs da aferxebs realuri mSp-s zrads.modelSi dadasturde monetaruli impulsis Semdeg realur mSp-ze 6 Tviani lagiT moqmedebis garemoeba; fulis brunvis siCqaris Semcireba; sesxebze realuri Sewonili saprocento ganakveTis Semcireba 19.4%-11.1%; CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 44 / 212009.fiskaluri politikia CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 45 / 212009.rikardos eqvivalenturobis TeoriaerTmaneTisagan ar gansxvavdeba ekonomikaze gadasaxadebis cvlilebis da xarjebis cvlilebis efeqti.

rikardos eqvivalenturobis Teoria Sesasruleblad tradiciulad unda dakmayofildes Semdegi pirobebi:

momavlis srulyofilad ganWvretis SesaZlebloba; likvidurobis SezRudvis ar arseboba; usasrulo sasicocxlo cikli;ekonomikuri agentebi racionalurad moqmedeben;


Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 46 / 212009.saxelmwifo xarjebis egzogenuri zrda(klasikuri varianti)fiskaluri zemoqmedebis obieqtia Sromis bazari;saxelmwifo xarjebis zrda gavlenasar axdens sawarmoo funqciaze da Sromis zRvrul produqtze, maSasadame Sromaze moTxovnisaze;Sromis miwodebaze.gadasaxadebi zegavlenas axdens danazogebze:

ekonomikuri zrdis sabaziso gantoleba:

kapital aRWurvis donea, warmoebis moculoba erT muSaxelze, mosaxleobis zrdis tempi, gadasaxadis ganakveTi.

gadasaxadebis zrda iwvevs danazogebis da kapitalSeiaraRebis mdgradi donis Semcirebas, rac niSnavs, rom izrdeba Semosavali kapitalze da mcirdeba xelfasebi.

Tu maSin


Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 47 / 212009.saxelmwifo xarjebis egzogenuri zrda(klasikuri varianti)gadasaxadebis zrdis SesaZlo Sedegi: Tu ekonomika kapitalSeiaraRebis òqros wesiT~ gansazRvruli doneze maRla mdebareobs, maSin moxmarebis donis zrdaa da danazogebis Semcireba. maSasadame Zlieria Canacvlebis efeqti. Tu ekonomika kapitalSeiaraRebis òqros wesiT~ gansazRvruli doneze dabla mdebareobs, maSin, moxmarebis donis da danazogebis donis Semcireba. maSasadame Zlieria Semosavlis efeqti. yk

gadasaxadebis gareSegadasaxadebis dawesebis Semdeg

ck


Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 48 / 212009.fiskaluri politikis gamoyenebis problemebi:xelfasebi swrafad egueba axal saerTo ekonomikur wonasworobas da amcirebs fiskaluri politikis zemoqmedebis masStabs;mcirdeba adamianTa keTildReoba;fiskaluri politikis ganxorcieleba dakavSirebulia droiT lagTan;momavalSi ekonomikuri koniunqturis prognozirebis problema;fiskaluri politikis zegavlenis xarisxis Sefasebis problema;rYPYFE1FE2IS1IS2LM2LM1Y2Y3Y1r1r2r3Y2Y3Y1P1P2LRAS1LRAS2SRAS1SRAS2AD2AD1saxelmwifo xarjebis egzogenuri zrda(klasikuri varianti) CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 49 / 212009.saxelmwifo vali

sagareo da saSinao vali;saSinao vali iwvevs kapitalis maragebis Semcirebas, momavali Taobebi Semcirebuli kapitali maragebis pirobebSi icxovreben.

- sasesxo kapitalis bazarze klasikuri wonasworobis modeli

erTi erTeuliT valis zrda amcirebs kapitalis moculobas erTi erTeuliT, Tuki kapitalis maragebi òqros wesiT~ gansazRvrul doneze imyofeba. CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 50 / 212009.yk

C1 - likalurad stabiluri wertili;C2 - likalurad aramdgradi wertili;saxelmwifo vali CHAPTER 1Prepared by:Fernando Quijano and Yvonn QuijanoCHAPTER 1A Tour ofThe WorldChapter 1: A Tour of the World

Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 51 / 212009.keinzinuri midgomaefeqturi moTxovnis hipoTeza ZiriTadi fsiqolofiuri kanoni

saxelmwifo xarjebis multiplikatori:

gadasaxadebis multiplikatori:


Tavi III. saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri politikis Sefaseba (2002-2008 wlebi)52 / 212009.saqarTvelos fiskaluri politika(2002-2008 wlebi) saxelmwifo xarjebisa da gadasaxadebis wili mSp-Si


Tavi III. saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri politikis Sefaseba (2002-2008 wlebi)53 / 212009.saqarTvelos fiskaluri politika(2002-2008 wlebi) saxelmwifo vali


Tavi III. saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri politikis Sefaseba (2002-2008 wlebi)54 / 212009.saqarTvelos fiskaluri politika(2002-2008 wlebi) saxelmwifo biujetis dafinansebis struqrura funqcionalur WrilSi, procentebSi


Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 55 / 212009.ekonomikuri politikis formirebis problemebi qcevis motivebi amomrCeveli deputatebi biurokratiaSedegebi ekonomikuri adamianis koncefcia

politika, rogorc gacvla

meTodologiuri individualizmi

interesTa jgufrbi porTfeluri garigebis problemaracionaluri uvicobaSualeduri amomrCevelilobizmilogrolingipolitikuri rentaxmis micemis paradoqsi

xelisuflebis fiasko

politikur-ekonomikuri cikli


Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 56 / 212009.biurikratiis modeli

biurokratis sageblianobis funqcia

xelfasi

arafuladi sargebeli

sazogadoebrivi dovlaTi

biuros biujeti

biuros xarji

diskretuli biujeti

Tu


Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 57 / 212009.biurikratiis modeliB,CQC(Q) B(Q) Qmax Qmin

biurokratis sargeblis maqsimizaciis piroba:

roca biurokratis mier sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis gamoSveba ar cvlis arc mis Semosavals da arc mis arafulad sargebels:

roca biurokratis mier sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis gamoSvebisas ar SeuZlia miiTvisos diskreciuli biujeti arc Semosavlis da arc sxva arafuladi sargeblis saxiT:

B,CGC(G) Y(G) Gopt GB Gm


Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 58 / 212009.gamoyenebuli literaturaananiaSvili i., aCelaSvili k., mesxia i., papava v., silagaZe a., wereTeli g. makroekonomikuri regulirebis meTodebi da modelebi. Tb. 2003.papava v., postkomunisturi gardamavali periodis makroekonomika. Tb. Tsu 2007.qistauri S. inflacia. Tb. 2000.xaduri n. ekonomikuri politikis formirebis Taviseburebani postkomunisturi transformaciis pirobebSi. Tb, 2000. . . . M., 2008. C. . 4 1996. M.,1994. . . M.,1997. ., . 6 1994. ., . . . M.,1997 . . ., 1969. ., . . M., 1994. . . . 1996. 9. C. 2425. ., . . . 2002. 9. ., . . 2002. .. , . .,1978. . . ., 1993. . .., 2006. . . ., 2000. . . . . . . . . . , . .,1997. .. . 7 1996 . . . ., 1996. . . ., 1995. . . 6 1992 ., . . ., 1996 . . ., 1968. .., .., .. . ., 2005 . . ., 1998. . . ( ) ., . 1996. . . //THESIS, .2., . 4.,1994. ( ) ., . 1996. . . . ., 1990. . . : ., 1996. . ., 2000. . . ., 1991. . O . . . ., 1990. . . . . ., 1959. . . . 2- ., I-II. ., 1997.


Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 59 / 212009.gamoyenebuli literatura .. ( ).., 1998. . . ., 1991. . . . M., 1996. Barro, Robert J. and David B. Gordon. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation ina Model of Monetary Policy." Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 12, No. 1,(July 1983), Barro R., Sala-i-Martin X. - Economic Growth. New York. 1995.Blanchard O.J., Fischer S. - Lectures On Macroeconomics. London. 2003.Casares M.Long-Run Analysis in Alternative Optimizing Monetary Models. Departamento de Economa - Universidad Pblica de Navarra in its series. 2001.Kydland F.E., Prescott E.C. Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans.The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No. 3. (Jun., 1977).Lucas R. Methods and Problems in Business Cycle Theory, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1980Walsh C. E. Economics - Monetary Theory & Policy. London. 2003.Walsh C. Monetary Theory and Policy, Second Edition, MIT press, 2006www.statistics.gewww.economics.gewww.nbg.gov.gewww.imf.orgwww.parliament.gewww.economicus.ru


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