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IPO 估价及其技术问题. 朱 武 祥 公司财务与投资银行学副教授 清华大学经济管理学院金融系 [email protected]. 企业投融资与资本市场价值. 股权投资者 债权投资者. 当前资产和业务 新投资机会. 融资与 资本结构. 投资与资产. 金融产品 或工具. 金融市场. 金融服务机构. 估价是在利用当前信息对不确定的未来进行假设 的基础上作出的一种必要但不精确的前景预测。 估价模型的作用在于将预期未来事件的预测后果 转换为价值。 企业估价与财务管理中企业内部投资项目估价的 区别: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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IPO(No Assets, No Revenues)(SinaSohu): No Profits IntelMicrosoftCoca-cola: No Operating Free Cash Flows
IPO(I), ,, ()
1. P/E()P/S/MV/BV/P/CF/P/EBITDAEV/EBITDA P/2P/Page ViewP/Customers
Adobe Systems
23.2
Autodesk
20.4
Broderbund
32.8
Computer Associates
18.0
Lotus Development
24.1
Microsoft
27.4
Oracle
37.8
Software Publishing
10.6
System Software
15.7
24.0
System PublishingSystem Software 27
BroderbundOracle 21
______________________________________________
P/E
EV/EBITDA
/
/
/
IPO(II)-1. Williamson(1937) 2.Miller(1961) : (1) (2) (3) (APV)
FCFt PVCFt tr-
PV()
HHorizon Time, PVHHorizon Value.
FCFFEBIT1
(EV)=(EV)
4
331.96165185
317.0807945
271.64589
162.205335
19991998199819971997
301.029266213.204319251.9473217265174.5114871235163.1799636161.675715
-1148.56065-127.721019-538.927005143.615091-457.254111-364.7617264
0
0
0
0
0
0
19991998199819971997
431.91133311462.16959315611.42607941562.63262128931.3588385
-1623.527867-2635.5562652003.387604-3160.352113-1466.836338
1623.5278672635.556265-2003.3876043160.3521131466.836338
537.692226431.91133311462.16959315611.42607941562.63262128931.3588385
418.821379-1623.527867-2635.5562652003.387604-3160.352113-1466.836338
0
0
0
0
0
0
19991998199819971997
33.96734.3140544.1664550.371554.44225
485.002267.878-70.639273.068122.747
-451.035-233.56395114.80545-222.6965-68.30475
47.239294533.96734.3140544.1664550.371554.44225
-1201.60375-485.002-267.87870.639-558.068162.253
47.2392945
33.967
34.31405
44.16645
50.3715
54.44225
19991998199819971997
75.9601958.33914539.37150543.30381521.69825
changes
184.5455221.359977.30284.406331.0755
36.5062230.66145.8369.9078.3
148.0393-9.301131.46674.499322.7755
128.428113.89949.63419.45435.044
6.52158.80514.84831.5454.037
111.9964175.9601958.33914539.37150543.30381521.69825
-670.18211-282.9883-163.4029-95.948-125.498-361.8565
-207.02811-105.063755-56.576495-82.194185-340.15825
111.9964175.9601958.33914539.37150543.30381521.69825
-670.18211-282.9883-163.4029-95.948-125.498-361.8565
0
0
0
0
0
0
-337.01223-324.70862599.629563-1402.233948
331.96165185317.0807945271.64589162.205335
0
0
0
0
199919991998199819971997
57.248553.9465542.074935.0715124.87459
19991998199819971997
changes
75.91765.605277.03585.65336.374
-33.51456.1113.15713.2893.25
109.4319.495263.87872.36433.124
28.635.9625.033.90351.8565
2.99121.84-2.0043.006717.7333
31.59157.823.0266.910219.5898
141.02267.295286.90464.274257.7138
-109.431-9.495-263.878-57.364-38.124
64.98327557.248553.9465542.074935.0715124.87459
-530.6691-141.022-67.295-286.904-79.2742-52.7138
64.983275
57.2485
53.94655
42.0749
35.07151
24.87459
199919981998199719971996
193.687137.329975138.418825104.0062
changes
-42.15571.6465.18-18.12
78.45-35.653.95241.67
-120.6607.2961.2378.29
103.81175.126384.314-16.327252
1.41-0.22-0.5822.68
105.22174.906383.734935.57
-15.38782.2147.91282261.140328
209.067-644.870025-9.493995-157.134128
218.7018193.687137.329975138.418825104.0062
-176.2063815.38-782.196-444.964-1013.86
0
0
0
0
0
(FCFE)
FCFE+- - +
PV()
1H
2PVHg ? PVHFCFH1 /(rg)
PVHFCFH /r
()PVH
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 12 14.4 17.28 20.74 23.43 26.47 28.05 29.73 31.51 1.2 1.44 1.73 2.07 2.49 2.81 3.18 3.36 3.57 3.78 2 2.4 2.88 3.46 2.69 3.04 1.59 1.68 1.78 1.89 -0.8 -0.96 -1.15 -1.39 -0.2 -0.23 1.59 1.68 1.79 1.89 () 20 20 20 20 20 13 13 6 6
1. 16 2. 14205613 612 3.
-0.8 -0.96 -1.15 -1.39 -0.20 -0.23 PV= 1.1 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 =$ 3.6 ()
PVH=6= 1 1.59 (1.1)6 (10%6%) = $22.4 ()
APVPV16PVH6 3.622.4 $18.8()
119
8,A8. PVH=8 1 9 (1+10%)8 10% 16.7 PVA$2.0 + $16.7$14.7() 113.6 818.826.3
Build-up
CAPM
-Fama-French
/
APM
DCF
CAPM
rerf (rmrf)rermrf
%
%
71
1926-1996
12.7
7.5
70
1927-1996
12.7
7.5
60
1937-1996
12.6
7.1
50
1947-1996
13.8
7.6
40
1957-1996
12.4
5.3
30
1967-1996
13.0
4.9
20
1977-1996
15.3
6.4
15
1982-1996
17.4
8.6
10
1987-1996
16.0
8.3
5
1992-1996
15.9
8.9
E(Ri)i Rf RPm RPs Rpu
Fama-French CAPME(Ri)i RfisihiiRPmSMB,HML,
DCFDCF
DCF-=f(X1, X2, X3, X4)X1Firm-level price drivers (Base case DCF value + Growth option investors expected premiums )X2Industrial-level driversX3 Marco drivers (economic & politics),X4Market noise(market behavior))
DCFDCFDCF
P/RP/CustomersP/E, P/CF
Start-up P/R Subscriber growth Per-user statisticReal Option P/R DCF Price/EBITDA Per-user statisticReal Option P/R DCF Price/EBITDA EV/Sale EV/EBITDA P/E Long term DCF EV/EBIT SALE/EBIT Dividend yieldIPO
IPOCorporate Finance