組長 : 王幼彭組員 : 侯惠英、陳秋姿、姜碧春、陽春華黃文萍、朱龍飛、游文祥

:

: 98

TMBA

+=WMA==

1()() 2() 3()

() ()

()+()

*

CRB

6 9.5%26 46.76 ISM 44.85 1.8%51.4%6.9%16,0002,750 13,750 52.4%4 3.8%

NASDAQSP5003/10 6/11 13 5~8 3 2~6 S&P500 S&P500 840 7,600 A 3,242

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Chart4

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07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4

(GDP)0.83.84.90.61.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1

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ISM

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070107020703070407050706070707080709071007110712080108020803080408050806080708080809081008110812090109020903090409050906090709080909091009110912

ISM 49.352.350.954.7555653.852.95250.95048.450.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8

ISM 5954.352.45659.760.755.855.854.855.854.654.441.949.349.65251.748.249.550.650.244.437.340.642.941.640.843.744

080108020803080408050806080708080809081008110812090109020903090409050906090709080909091009110912

ISM 50.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8

ISM 41.949.349.65251.748.249.550.650.244.437.340.642.941.640.843.744

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ISM

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ISM

ISM

NAHB

080108020803080408050806080708080809081008110812090109020903090409050906090709080909091009110912

87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9

0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5

NAHB

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080108020803080408050806080708080809081008110812090109020903090409050906090709080909091009110912

78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769

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CPI

070107020703070407050706070707080709071007110712080108020803080408050806080708080809081008110812090109020903090409050906090709080909091009110912

3539363330282422201819191920202019181616181499899141615

080108020803080408050806080708080809081008110812090109020903090409050906

NAHB(50)1920202019181616181499899141615

4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4

CPI

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NAHB

CPIPCE

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NAHB(50)

Sheet1

070107020703070407050706070707080709071007110712080108020803080408050806080708080809081008110812090109020903090409050906090709080909091009110912

48.847.961.752.961.760.253.453.854.249.752.956.451.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9

08010802080308040805080608070808080908100811081209010902090309040905

51.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9

Sheet1

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080108020803080408050806080708080809081008110812090109020903090409050906090709080909091009110912

4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7

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CPI

080108020803080408050806080708080809081008110812090109020903090409050906090709080909091009110912

CPI2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8

PCE2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9

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CPI

PCE

Chart2

87.378.40.4

7569.6-0.6

64.569.50.2

62.362.6-0.2

57.259.51

50.456.40.1

51.961.2-0.1

58.561.7-0.3

59.870.3-1.2

3857.6-2.8

44.955.3-1.8

3861.9-3.1

37.761.21

2556.3-0.1

2657.3-1.1

39.265.1-0.4

54.968.70.5

066906

(%)


(GDP)(%)0.83.84.90.61.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

156.8153.2154.4142.9150.1140.6137.3130.7122.6117.8115.2106.8104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8

()140.8152.5151.8152.8147.4146.7138.1133.1119.1122.9118.7100.6101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2

()93.783.685.898.191.583.48773.571.672.864.760.458.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2

()646669612599599576575550504497500489489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477

NAHB(50)3539363330282422201819191920202019181616181499899141615

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

Fed8.30.60.20.24.2189.2010.96.88.2-5.7-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

ISM 49.352.350.954.7555653.852.95250.95048.450.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8

48.847.961.752.961.760.253.453.854.249.752.956.451.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9

080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1

(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4

CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7

CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8

PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9


GDP(%)3.12.52.72.22.21.40.7-1.5-4.8

07010203040705060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)5555.654.954.353.251.552.852.652.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)1.81.81.91.41.91.91.81.72.12.63.13.13.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60

(%)7.47.47.27.176.96.96.96.97.27.27.27.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2

08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4

GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

IFO()107107107.7108.6108.6107106.4105.8104.2103.9104.2103103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2

ZEW()-3.62.95.816.52420.310.4-6.9-18.1-18.1-32.5-37.2-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8

(PMI)58.557.256.95756.157.356.85654.951.753.753.654.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI1.61.61.91.91.91.81.92.52.43.12.82.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1

(%)10.29.39.29.29.29998.88.78.68.48.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2


GDP(%)33.13.32.82.50.30.324.10

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)53.255.454.254.154.954.755.956.352.954.452.950.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI2.72.83.12.82.52.41.91.81.82.12.12.12.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2

(%)2.92.92.92.82.82.72.62.62.62.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8


GDP(%)3.31.22.63.53.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2


()23232319115-3

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(:50)40.93036.418.2308066.727.3018.218.24036.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2

08~09


(GDP)(%)1.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9

78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769

(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8

()101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2

()58.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2

()489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477

NAHB(50)1920202019181616181499899141615

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8

Fed-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2

ISM 50.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8

51.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9

080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1

(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4

CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7

CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8

PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9

08~09

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

(%)

08~09

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

()

()

NAHB(50)

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

()(%)

ISM

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

(%)

CPI(%)

CPI(%)

PCE(%)


GDP(%)2.21.40.7-1.5-4.8

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)52.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)3.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60

(%)7.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2


GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

IFO()103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2

ZEW()-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8

(PMI)54.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI2.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1

(%)8.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2

GDP(%)

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)50.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI2.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2

(%)2.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8


GDP(%)3.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2


()23232319115-3

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(:50)36.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2

:

Chart3

4.94.32.52.2

4.842.32

5.142.42.1

53.92.32.1

5.54.22.32.1

5.552.42.3

5.75.62.52.4

6.15.42.52.6

6.12.54.94.2

6.52.23.72.1

6.721.11.9

7.21.80.11.7

7.601.71.6

8.10.21.81.8

8.5-0.41.81.8

8.9-0.71.81.9

9.4050505

(%)

CPI(%)

CPI(%)

PCE(%)


(GDP)(%)0.83.84.90.61.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

156.8153.2154.4142.9150.1140.6137.3130.7122.6117.8115.2106.8104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8

()140.8152.5151.8152.8147.4146.7138.1133.1119.1122.9118.7100.6101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2

()93.783.685.898.191.583.48773.571.672.864.760.458.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2

()646669612599599576575550504497500489489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477

NAHB(50)3539363330282422201819191920202019181616181499899141615

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

Fed8.30.60.20.24.2189.2010.96.88.2-5.7-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

ISM 49.352.350.954.7555653.852.95250.95048.450.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8

48.847.961.752.961.760.253.453.854.249.752.956.451.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9

080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1

(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4

CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7

CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8

PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9


GDP(%)3.12.52.72.22.21.40.7-1.5-4.8

07010203040705060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)5555.654.954.353.251.552.852.652.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)1.81.81.91.41.91.91.81.72.12.63.13.13.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60

(%)7.47.47.27.176.96.96.96.97.27.27.27.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2


GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

IFO()107107107.7108.6108.6107106.4105.8104.2103.9104.2103103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2

ZEW()-3.62.95.816.52420.310.4-6.9-18.1-18.1-32.5-37.2-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8

(PMI)58.557.256.95756.157.356.85654.951.753.753.654.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI1.61.61.91.91.91.81.92.52.43.12.82.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1

(%)10.29.39.29.29.29998.88.78.68.48.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2


GDP(%)33.13.32.82.50.30.324.10

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)53.255.454.254.154.954.755.956.352.954.452.950.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI2.72.83.12.82.52.41.91.81.82.12.12.12.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2

(%)2.92.92.92.82.82.72.62.62.62.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8


GDP(%)3.31.22.63.53.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2


()23232319115-3

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(:50)40.93036.418.2308066.727.3018.218.24036.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2

08~09


(GDP)(%)1.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9

78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769

(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8

()101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2

()58.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2

()489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477

NAHB(50)1920202019181616181499899141615

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8

Fed-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2

ISM 50.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8

51.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9

080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1

(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4

CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7

CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8

PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9

08~09

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

(%)

08~09

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

()

()

NAHB(50)

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

()(%)

ISM

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

(%)

CPI(%)

CPI(%)

PCE(%)


GDP(%)2.21.40.7-1.5-4.8

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)52.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)3.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60

(%)7.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2


GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

IFO()103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2

ZEW()-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8

(PMI)54.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI2.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1

(%)8.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2

GDP(%)

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)50.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI2.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2

(%)2.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8


GDP(%)3.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2


()23232319115-3

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(:50)36.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2

ISM(1) (2) (3)%ISM

8,000 8,900 7,600 9,300

S&P 500 NASDAQ1,750 1,900 1,600 1,950840 950 800 1,000

*

VIX:30

1 21 PMI50 IFO ZEW3 2KD20 37/16

:

Chart8

103.4-41.654.4

104.1-39.554.3

104.8-3255.1

102.4-40.753.6

103.5-41.453.5

101.3-52.452.6

97.5-63.950.9

94.8-55.549.7

92.9-41.143.3

90.2-6342.9

85.8-53.535.7

82.6-45.232.7

83-3132

82.6-3132.1

82.1-3.532.4

83.71335.4

84.231.139.6

0644.840.5

IFO()

ZEW()

(PMI)


(GDP)(%)0.83.84.90.61.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

156.8153.2154.4142.9150.1140.6137.3130.7122.6117.8115.2106.8104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8

()140.8152.5151.8152.8147.4146.7138.1133.1119.1122.9118.7100.6101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2

()93.783.685.898.191.583.48773.571.672.864.760.458.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2

()646669612599599576575550504497500489489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477

NAHB(50)3539363330282422201819191920202019181616181499899141615

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

Fed8.30.60.20.24.2189.2010.96.88.2-5.7-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

ISM 49.352.350.954.7555653.852.95250.95048.450.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8

48.847.961.752.961.760.253.453.854.249.752.956.451.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9

080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1

(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4

CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7

CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8

PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9


GDP(%)3.12.52.72.22.21.40.7-1.5-4.8

07010203040705060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)5555.654.954.353.251.552.852.652.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)1.81.81.91.41.91.91.81.72.12.63.13.13.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60

(%)7.47.47.27.176.96.96.96.97.27.27.27.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2


GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

IFO()107107107.7108.6108.6107106.4105.8104.2103.9104.2103103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2

ZEW()-3.62.95.816.52420.310.4-6.9-18.1-18.1-32.5-37.2-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8

(PMI)58.557.256.95756.157.356.85654.951.753.753.654.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI1.61.61.91.91.91.81.92.52.43.12.82.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1

(%)10.29.39.29.29.29998.88.78.68.48.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2


GDP(%)33.13.32.82.50.30.324.10

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)53.255.454.254.154.954.755.956.352.954.452.950.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI2.72.83.12.82.52.41.91.81.82.12.12.12.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2

(%)2.92.92.92.82.82.72.62.62.62.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8


GDP(%)3.31.22.63.53.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2


()23232319115-3

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(:50)40.93036.418.2308066.727.3018.218.24036.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2

08~09


(GDP)(%)1.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9

78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769

(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8

()101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2

()58.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2

()489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477

NAHB(50)1920202019181616181499899141615

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8

Fed-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2

ISM 50.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8

51.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9

080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1

(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4

CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7

CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8

PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9

08~09

(%)

08~09

()

()

NAHB(50)

()(%)

ISM

(%)

CPI(%)

CPI(%)

PCE(%)


GDP(%)2.21.40.7-1.5-4.8

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)52.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)3.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60

(%)7.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2


GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

IFO()103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2

ZEW()-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8

(PMI)54.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI2.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1

(%)8.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2

GDP(%)

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)50.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI2.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2

(%)2.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8


GDP(%)3.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2


()23232319115-3

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(:50)36.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2

(PMI)

IFO()

ZEW()

(PMI)

Chart9

52.8

52.3

52

50.7

49.1

49.2

47.4

47.6

41.3

41.1

35.6

33.9

34.5

34.8

33.9

36.8

40.7

42.4

(PMI)


(GDP)(%)0.83.84.90.61.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

156.8153.2154.4142.9150.1140.6137.3130.7122.6117.8115.2106.8104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8

()140.8152.5151.8152.8147.4146.7138.1133.1119.1122.9118.7100.6101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2

()93.783.685.898.191.583.48773.571.672.864.760.458.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2

()646669612599599576575550504497500489489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477

NAHB(50)3539363330282422201819191920202019181616181499899141615

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

Fed8.30.60.20.24.2189.2010.96.88.2-5.7-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

ISM 49.352.350.954.7555653.852.95250.95048.450.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8

48.847.961.752.961.760.253.453.854.249.752.956.451.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9

080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1

(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4

CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7

CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8

PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9


GDP(%)3.12.52.72.22.21.40.7-1.5-4.8

07010203040705060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)5555.654.954.353.251.552.852.652.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)1.81.81.91.41.91.91.81.72.12.63.13.13.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60

(%)7.47.47.27.176.96.96.96.97.27.27.27.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2


GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

IFO()107107107.7108.6108.6107106.4105.8104.2103.9104.2103103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2

ZEW()-3.62.95.816.52420.310.4-6.9-18.1-18.1-32.5-37.2-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8

(PMI)58.557.256.95756.157.356.85654.951.753.753.654.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI1.61.61.91.91.91.81.92.52.43.12.82.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1

(%)10.29.39.29.29.29998.88.78.68.48.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2


GDP(%)33.13.32.82.50.30.324.10

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)53.255.454.254.154.954.755.956.352.954.452.950.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI2.72.83.12.82.52.41.91.81.82.12.12.12.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2

(%)2.92.92.92.82.82.72.62.62.62.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8


GDP(%)3.31.22.63.53.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2


()23232319115-3

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(:50)40.93036.418.2308066.727.3018.218.24036.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2

08~09


(GDP)(%)1.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9

78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769

(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8

()101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2

()58.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2

()489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477

NAHB(50)1920202019181616181499899141615

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8

Fed-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2

ISM 50.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8

51.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9

080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1

(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4

CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7

CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8

PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9

08~09

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

(%)

08~09

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

()

()

NAHB(50)

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

()(%)

ISM

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

(%)

CPI(%)

CPI(%)

PCE(%)


GDP(%)2.21.40.7-1.5-4.8

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)52.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)3.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60

(%)7.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2


GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

IFO()103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2

ZEW()-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8

(PMI)54.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI2.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1

(%)8.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2

GDP(%)

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)50.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI2.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2

(%)2.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8


GDP(%)3.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2


()23232319115-3

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(:50)36.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

(PMI)

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

IFO()

ZEW()

(PMI)

PMI6187ETFMOUMOU

Chart14

23

23

23

19

11

5

-3

Q4

()


(GDP)(%)0.83.84.90.61.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

156.8153.2154.4142.9150.1140.6137.3130.7122.6117.8115.2106.8104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8

()140.8152.5151.8152.8147.4146.7138.1133.1119.1122.9118.7100.6101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2

()93.783.685.898.191.583.48773.571.672.864.760.458.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2

()646669612599599576575550504497500489489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477

NAHB(50)3539363330282422201819191920202019181616181499899141615

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

Fed8.30.60.20.24.2189.2010.96.88.2-5.7-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

ISM 49.352.350.954.7555653.852.95250.95048.450.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8

48.847.961.752.961.760.253.453.854.249.752.956.451.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9

080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1

(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4

CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7

CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8

PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9


GDP(%)3.12.52.72.22.21.40.7-1.5-4.8

07010203040705060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)5555.654.954.353.251.552.852.652.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)1.81.81.91.41.91.91.81.72.12.63.13.13.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60

(%)7.47.47.27.176.96.96.96.97.27.27.27.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2


GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

IFO()107107107.7108.6108.6107106.4105.8104.2103.9104.2103103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2

ZEW()-3.62.95.816.52420.310.4-6.9-18.1-18.1-32.5-37.2-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8

(PMI)58.557.256.95756.157.356.85654.951.753.753.654.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI1.61.61.91.91.91.81.92.52.43.12.82.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1

(%)10.29.39.29.29.29998.88.78.68.48.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2


GDP(%)33.13.32.82.50.30.324.10

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)53.255.454.254.154.954.755.956.352.954.452.950.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI2.72.83.12.82.52.41.91.81.82.12.12.12.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2

(%)2.92.92.92.82.82.72.62.62.62.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8


GDP(%)3.31.22.63.53.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2


()23232319115-3

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(:50)40.93036.418.2308066.727.3018.218.24036.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2

08~09


(GDP)(%)1.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9

78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769

(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8

()101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2

()58.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2

()489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477

NAHB(50)1920202019181616181499899141615

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8

Fed-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2

ISM 50.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8

51.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9

080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1

(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4

CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7

CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8

PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9

08~09

(%)

08~09

()

()

NAHB(50)

()(%)

ISM

(%)

CPI(%)

CPI(%)

PCE(%)


GDP(%)2.21.40.7-1.5-4.8

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)52.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)3.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60

(%)7.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2


GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

IFO()103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2

ZEW()-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8

(PMI)54.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI2.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1

(%)8.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2

GDP(%)

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)50.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI2.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2

(%)2.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8


GDP(%)3.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2


()23232319115-3

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(:50)36.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2

(PMI)

IFO()

ZEW()

(PMI)

()

(:50)

Chart1

36.4

54.5

03

27.3

60

30

91.4

89.3

09

85.2

81.5

80

78.1

75

76.5

76.2

(:50)


(GDP)(%)0.83.84.90.61.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

156.8153.2154.4142.9150.1140.6137.3130.7122.6117.8115.2106.8104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8

()140.8152.5151.8152.8147.4146.7138.1133.1119.1122.9118.7100.6101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2

()93.783.685.898.191.583.48773.571.672.864.760.458.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2

()646669612599599576575550504497500489489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477

NAHB(50)3539363330282422201819191920202019181616181499899141615

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

Fed8.30.60.20.24.2189.2010.96.88.2-5.7-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

ISM 49.352.350.954.7555653.852.95250.95048.450.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8

48.847.961.752.961.760.253.453.854.249.752.956.451.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9

080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1

(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4

CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7

CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8

PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9


GDP(%)3.12.52.72.22.21.40.7-1.5-4.8

07010203040705060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)5555.654.954.353.251.552.852.652.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)1.81.81.91.41.91.91.81.72.12.63.13.13.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60

(%)7.47.47.27.176.96.96.96.97.27.27.27.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2


GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

IFO()107107107.7108.6108.6107106.4105.8104.2103.9104.2103103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2

ZEW()-3.62.95.816.52420.310.4-6.9-18.1-18.1-32.5-37.2-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8

(PMI)58.557.256.95756.157.356.85654.951.753.753.654.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI1.61.61.91.91.91.81.92.52.43.12.82.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1

(%)10.29.39.29.29.29998.88.78.68.48.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2


GDP(%)33.13.32.82.50.30.324.10

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)53.255.454.254.154.954.755.956.352.954.452.950.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI2.72.83.12.82.52.41.91.81.82.12.12.12.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2

(%)2.92.92.92.82.82.72.62.62.62.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8


GDP(%)3.31.22.63.53.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2


()23232319115-3

070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(:50)40.93036.418.2308066.727.3018.218.24036.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2

08~09


(GDP)(%)1.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9

78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769

(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8

()101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2

()58.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2

()489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477

NAHB(50)1920202019181616181499899141615

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8

Fed-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2

ISM 50.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8

51.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9

080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1

(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4

CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7

CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8

PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9

08~09

(%)

08~09

()

()

NAHB(50)

()(%)

ISM

(%)

CPI(%)

CPI(%)

PCE(%)


GDP(%)2.21.40.7-1.5-4.8

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)52.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

()(%)3.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60

(%)7.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2


GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

IFO()103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2

ZEW()-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8

(PMI)54.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI2.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1

(%)8.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2

GDP(%)

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(PMI)50.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

CPI2.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2

(%)2.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8


GDP(%)3.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2


()23232319115-3

0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112

(:50)36.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2

(PMI)

IFO()

ZEW()

(PMI)

()

(:50)

225

6,100 7,084 5,500 7,500

3~6

CRB()()48.8% 30%

CRB()+25%()

CRB:237 268 186 27560

:920 1,000 700 1,032:920M

:60 80 40 80:60

=+

:78.00 86.50 77.30 90.001. 3000 1.4350 1.2000 1.4750

0.6500 0.8500 0.5500 0.9500103.00 90.00 110.00 85.00

15~20 (1)(2)

() 1210%

12

()

() 12

THE END

***********************

Documents

組長 : 王幼彭 組員 : 侯惠英、陳秋姿、姜碧春、陽春華 黃文萍、朱龍飛、游文祥

組長 : 王幼彭組員 : 侯惠英、陳秋姿、姜碧春、陽春華黃文萍、朱龍飛、游文祥