Upload
sipi-union
View
188
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
გარემოზე ზემოქმედების შეფასების ანგარიშის დანართი 1
Citation preview
Trans Electrica Ltd., 2013
(702 )
20113
Trans Electrica Ltd., 2013
1
2
4
5
6
7
Trans Electrica Ltd., 2013
Trans Electrica Ltd., 2013 1
1.0
; ,,
. - 21-
2-,
. 2-
s1-. -
- . - -. - , 25,000-
1.3-1.
-1.
-
2,506,511 1,183,826 779,223 104,713 13.4
19,717,141 7,684,990 4,477,937 1,367,783 30.5
657,984 185,012 88,700 37,135 41.9
2,829,939 1,038,430 779,698 559,763 71.8
7,600,775 1,907,776 1,058,742 654,308 61.8
6,892,515 2,606,559 1,536,794 685,959 44.6
1 Published/Hosted by Aqua Media International. ISSN: 1352-2523.
Trans Electrica Ltd., 2013 2
440,204,865 14,606,593 8,721,094 3,409,661 39.77
,
.1.3-2.
1.3-2.
-
24,646 12,891 28,248 52.3/166.9
411,104 123,724 185,310 30.1/75.2
13,371 117 420 0.88/4.0
177,702 4,683 16,118 2.6/11.7
169,585 7,912 24,675 4.7/19.2
140,926 32,818 60,958 23.3/66.5
937,334 182,145 315,729 19.8/53.44
-
2--
2,500- . . 3-– 15, 2.
2- – 7. - , ,–
. ,.
. -. -
– . . (-
Trans Electrica Ltd., 2013 3
556-
-
-
-
-
( ), ,- 52,
. -, 117. . .
25, . -. - –
. – .117. . , 57. .
.4, . ,
66. - . 330-(
. 3- 3, 2-. 1, 3- 6-
9. . 3- , 3-– 12. 3.
, ,( - 41, )
69.0 . - . 62.- 42. .
8, . -. . – . .
– 53. . . 42.. , 80. 88.
- . ,83. - .
70-2. . 3-
– 2.
, , 27,
,,650-
Trans Electrica Ltd., 2013 4
#2.
Trans Electrica Ltd., 2013
:
b
saboloo angariSi
2007 wlis dekemberi
angariSis Tavfurceli
profesionaluri sakonsultacio momsaxureba – teqnikur-ekonomikuri
mizanSewonilobis kvleva da proeqtebi,
eleqtroenergetika – naxSiri – wyali – navTobi da gazi – garemos
dacva
saqarTvelo:energoseqtoris ganviTarebis
garemoze zemoqmedebis strategiuli Sefaseba
:
c
klienti:
msoflio bankis jgufi
1809 G Street N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 USA
proeqtis
saTauri:
saqarTvelo: energosistemis ganviTarebis strategiuli
garemosdacviTi Sefaseba
qveynebi: saqarTvelo
dokumentis
saTauri:
saboloo angariSis proeqti
kontraqtis N: 7142846
kontraqtori:
S.p.s samxreT aRmosavleT evropis konsultantebi.Makenzijeva 53 11000 belgradi
serbeTis respublika
myidvelis N: 60685 msoflio bankis
proeqtis
menejeri:b-n. biorn hamso (Bjorn Hamso)
msoflio bankis
energetikis
konsultanti
b-n. stratos tavularesi (Stratos Tavoulareas)
proeqtis
menejeri:q-n. dragana orliki) (Dragana Orlic)
gamoSvebis
TariRi
14 dekemberi, 2007 w.
:
d
mniSvnelovani SeniSvna
es angariSi exeba strategiul garemosdacviT Sefasebas saqarTvelos
energoseqtorSi. angariSi momzadda S.p.s. samxreT aRmosavleT evropis
konsultantebis (SEEC) mier, msoflio bankis kontraqtis farglebSi:
7142846.
Sps SEEC-s, mis direqtors da TanamSromlebs, am xelSekrulebis an
kanonmdeblobis safuZvelze, ar gaaCniaT da nakisri ar aqvT raime
valdebuleba mesame mxareebis winaSe (maT Soris, magram ara mxolod,
kanonis moTxovnilebebidan gamomdinare), da pasuxs ar ageben araviTari
zaralis, zianis an xarjebis gamo, sulerTia ra saxis iqneba is,
romelic SeiZleba ganicados mesame mxarem am angariSSi mocemuli
informaciis gamoyenebis Sedegad. Tu romelime mesame mxare isurvebs
daeyrdnos am angariSs an masSi moyvanil informacias, igi mTlianad
Tavis Tavze iRebs amasTan dakavSirebul risks.
am angariSis momzadebis periodSi gamoyenebuli informacia miRebul iqna
sxvadasxva wyaroebidan, rogorc es aRniSnulia angariSSi. Cveni samuSao
ar moicavda audits, sazogadod miRebuli auditis standartebis
mixedviT. Sesabamisad, Cven ar viRebT pasuxismgeblobas da Tavs ar vdebT
Cvens mier mowodebuli nebismieri informaciis sisworesa da
srulyofilebaze.
__________________________________________________________________ am angariSSi moyvanili monacemebi, ganmartebebi da daskvnebi ar
warmoadgens msoflio bankis, misi romelime oficialuri piris,
TanamSromlisa an konsultantis Sexedulebebs da ar unda iqnas
miRebuli, rogorc msoflio bankis poziciis gamomxatveli. msoflio
banki ar iZleva am angariSSi moyvanil monacemTa sizustis garantias,
maT Soris rodesac es monacemebi exeba ruqebs, ricxvebs da cxrilebs.
:
e
saqarTvelo:energoseqtoris ganviTarebis
strategiuli garemosdacviTi Sefaseba
saboloo angariSi
sarCevi
abriviaturebis da akronimebis sia
Semajamebeli informacia
1. Sesavali...................................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1. kvlevis miznebi da samuSaoTa moculoba........................................................2
2. midgoma da meTodologia .........................................................................................................6
3. mimdinare situacia saqarTveloSi................................................................................. 13
3.1. saqarTvelos bunebrivi maxasiaTeblebi........................................................... 13
3.2. energosistemis mimdinare statusi saqarTveloSi................................30
4. momavali moTxovnileba eleqtroenergiaze da energiaze .................... 40
4.1. 2005 wlamde ganviTareba ..................................................................................................41
4.2. samomavlo ganviTarebis prognozi........................................................................45
4.3. moxovnilebis prognozi da eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis
parametrebi.................................................................................................................................................55
5. eleqtrogeneraciis sistemis ganviTarebis variantebi .............................63
5.1. SerCeuli Tboeleqtrosadgurebis ZiriTadi maxasiaTeblebi da
xarjTaRricxva.......................................................................................................................................63
5.1.1. potenciuri Tboeleqtrosadgurebis ranJireba da
winaswari Sefaseba .........................................................................................................................68
5.1.2. potenciuri Tboeleqtrosadgurebis garemoze zemoqmedebis
Sefaseba .................................................................................................................................................... 70
5.2. potenciuri hesebis ZiriTadi maxasiaTeblebi da mSeneblobis
xarjTaRricxva.......................................................................................................................................77
5.2.1. xudonis hidroeleqtrosadguri......................................................................77
5.2.2. faravnis hidrosadguri..........................................................................................108
5.2.3. namaxvanis kaskadis hesebi mdinare rionze.........................................112
5.2.4. dagegmili hesebis teqnikuri da ekonomikuri parametrebis
Sejameba .................................................................................................................................................. 146
5.3. ganaxlebadi energiis potenciali saqarTveloSi...............................148
5.3.1. hidrogeneraciis potenciali...........................................................................152
:
f
5.3.2. qari .............................................................................................................................................158
5.3.3. saqarTvelos geoTermuli resursebi ......................................................161
5.3.4. biomasis resursebi saqarTveloSi ............................................................ 166
5.3.5. mzis energiis resursebi ...................................................................................... 169
5.3.6. ganaxlebadi teqnologiebis proeqtebis winaswari Sefaseba
170
6. generaciis ganviTarebis gegmebi ................................................................................... 176
6.1. dagegmvisas gamoyenebuli ZiriTadi daSvebebi da kriteriumebi
178
6.2. sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba ............................................................... 179
6.3. maRali saprognozo moTxovnileba....................................................................209
6.4. dabali saprognozo moTxovnileba ....................................................................213
7. gadamcemi qselis ganviTarebis gegmebi..................................................................224
8. alternatiuli scenarebis integrirebuli kvleva....................................227
8.1. ganviTarebis alternativebis SerCeva mravalkriteriumiani
ranJirebisaTTvis............................................................................................................................... 228
8.2. mravalkriteriumiani ranJirebis kriteriumebis ganmarteba ....231
8.3. mravalkriteriumiani ranJirebis Sedegebi................................................. 257
9. daskvnebi ................................................................................................................................................262
10. riskebis Sefaseba ......................................................................................................................... 271
literatura
:
g
abriviaturebis da akronimebis sia
CCGT kombiniebuli ciklis gazis turbina
EIA garemoze zemoqmedebis Sefaseba
GHG saTburis gazi
GEF globaluri garemo saSualeba
GNERC saqarTvelos erovnuli maregulirebeli komisia
HV maRali Zabva (110kv da ufro maRali)
HI hidro instituti
HPP hidrosadguri
FOR iZulebiTi gaTiSvis wili
IP Semowmebis faza
IR Semowmebis angariSi
ISO sistemis damoukidebeli operatori
LOLP datvirTvis albaTobis danakargi (energosistemis saimedoobis
kriteriumi)
LV dabali Zabva (1kv da ufro dabali)
MEP saqarTvelos garemosdacvis da bunebrivi resursebis saminstro
Mil. milioni
MoE saqarTvelos energetikis saministro
MV saSualo Zabva (1kv-ze meti da 110kv-ze naklebi)
m.a.s.l. metri zRvis donidanNPP atomuri sadguri
NPV wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba
O&M saoperacio da saeqspluatacio
SEA strategiuli garemosdaciTi Sefaseba
STG orTqlis turbinis generatori
TL jgufis lideri
ToR samuSaoTa moculoba, teqnikuri davaleba
TPES mTliani pirveladi energiis wyaros moxmareba
TPP Tboeleqtrosadguri
WASP energosistemis ganviTarebis dagegmvis kompiuteruli programa
WB msoflio banki
Lsazomi erTeulebis sia
kg kilogrami
mg miligrami
mm milimetri
sm2 kvadratuli santimetri
m3 kuburi metri
ºC celsiusis temperatura
:
h
gj gigajouli
kvt el kilovati (eleqtroba)
kvt Tbo kilovati (siTbo)
mgvt el megavati (eleqtro)
mgvt Tbo megavati (siTbo)
mgvtsT megavatsaaTi
gvtsT gigavatsaaTi
tvtsT teravatsaaTi
mgvt megavati
:
I
Semajamebeli informacia
saqarTvelo: energoseqtoris ganviTarebis
garemoze zemoqmedebis strategiuli Sefaseba
arsebuli mdgomareoba da kvlevis miznebi saqarTvelos mosaxleoba, romelic mdebareobs Sav da kaspiis zRvebs Soris da
esazRvreba somxeTs, azerbaijans, TurqeTsa da ruseTs, Seadgens 4.6 milions.
2006 wels mTliani Sida produqtis (mSp) moculoba Seadgenda 5.234 miliard
dolars (dafuZnebuli valutis oficialur gacvlis kursze) da 17.88 miliard
dolars (msyidvelobiTi unaris pariteti); mSp erT sul mosaxleze gamodioda
3800 dolari msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis mixedviT1. 2000 wlidan
dawyebuli, qveyanam inflacia dauqvemdebara kontrols (10% 2006 wels) da
miaRwia dadebiT ekonomikur zrdas, romelic imave wels (2006w.) gautolda
8%-s.
saqarTvelos energo seqtori damokidebulia importrebul navTobsa da
bunebriv airze; hidroeleqtroenergia warmoadgens erTaderT sakmao odenobis
adgilobriv energo resurss. navTobis mcire raodenoba aRmoCnda samxreT
saqarTveloSi (samgorSi) da aRmosavleT saqarTveloSi, magram mimdinareobs
Zalian mcire odenobis mopoveba. aseve arsebobs qvanaxSiris maRaroebi
afxazeTis avtonomiur respublikasa da quTaisis maxloblad, magram 1976 -
1991 wlebSi warmoeba am maRaroebinda Semcirda daaxloebiT 50%-iT da
Seadgiena 1 milion tona, tyibulis-Saoris (quTaisis maxloblad) qvanaxSiris
maRaroebis Seswavlili moculoba Seadgens 378 milion tonas.
qveyanas aTasobiT mdinare gaaCnia (daaxloebiT 25,000, romelTa umetesoba
25km_ze meti sigrZisaa), romlebic Caedinebian dasavleTiT Sav zRvaSi an
aRmosavleTiT azerbaijanis gavliT kaspiis zRvaSi. Sefasebulia, rom
hidroresursebis sruli potenciali Seadgens 80tvtsT-s, xolo ekonomiurad
xelmisawvdomi potencialia 27tvtsT. dResdReobiT ekonomiurad
xelmisawvdomi hidroresursebis 25% a gamoyenebuli.
saqarTvelos eleqtrogeneraciis dadgmuli simZlavrea daaxloebiT 3,000mgvt,
romelmac 2006 wels gamoimuSava 7.6 miliard kvtsT eleqtroenergia. 80.3%
eleqtroenergia gamomuSavda hidrosadgurebis mier, xolo 19.7% ruseTis
bunebrivi airis meSveobiT, romlis Rirebulebaa $60/1000m3. Tumca 2006 wels
rusuli gazis Rirebuleba gaizarda $110/1000m3 _mde da 2007 wels
$235/1000m3 _mde, riTic igi gazis Rirebulebas dasavleT evropaSi
gauTanabrda. Sesabamisad, fasis gazrdis gamo gazmomaragebis saimedooba kiTxvis
1 The World Factbook/Georgia: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/print/gg.html
:
II
niSnis qveS dadga da qveynis energostrategiis Camoyalibebisas gazis
momarageba energomomaragebis usafrTxoeba kritikuli elementi gaxda.
dadgmuli hidro simZlavre 2,167mgvt-s warmoadgens. 1990-ian wlebSi misi
wili mTlian energo generaciaSi 50-60%-s Seadgenda. imis Semdeg rac
ganxorcielda farTomasStabiani reabilitaciis programa arsebuli
hidrosadgurebis saeqspluatacio mzadyofna mniSvnelovnad gaizarda.
am garemoebaTa da eleqtroenergiaze swrafad mzardi moTxovnilebis gamo,
saqarTvelo misi generaciis gazrdis SesaZleblobebis xelaxal gadafasebas
cdilobs. Catarda hidroenergiis proeqtebis mravali winaswari kvleva,
romlebic moicavdnen faravnis (129mgvt; 440gvtsT), tviSis (100mgvt;
404gvtsT), namaxvanis (250mgvt; 928gvtsT), JoneTis (100mgvt; 346gvsT) da
xudonis (638mgvt; 1,328gvtsT) sadgurebs. amJamadac mimdinareobs garkveuli
kvlevebi (onis kaskadi, mtkvari, zestafoni, diRomi, foniWala). am angariSis
mizania Seafasos energoresursebis alternatiuli programebi, da am Sefasebaze
dayrdnobiT moxdes sxvadasxva energo proeqtebisaTvis prioritetebis miniWeba;
aseve, am angariSis mizans warmoadgens xudonis hidroenergiis proeqtis
garemoze zemoqmedebis winaswari strategiuli Sefaseba, romelze
dayrdnobiTac SeiZleba iqnas miRebuli gadawyvetileba unda gagrZeldes Tu
ara xudonis proeqtis Semdgomi Seswavla da ganxorcieleba.
meTodologia/midgoma
am gamokvlevaSi gamoyenebuli midgoma teqnikuri, ekonomikuri, garemosdacviTi
da socialuri sakiTxebis integrirebul SefasebaSi mdgomareobs.
energogeneraciis alternatiuli variantebi da ganxorcielebis scenarebi
Sefasebulia ara marto ekonomikur safuZvelze dayrdnobiT, aramed agreTve
garemosdacviTi da socialuri zegavlenis gaTvaliswinebiT. mocemulia yoveli
variantis ZiriTadi upiratesoba da uaryofiTi zegavlena, xolo
gadawyvetilebis miReba ganviTarebis prioritetuli mimarTulebis arCevaSi
datovebulia politikis SemmuSavebelTaTvis saqarTveloSi. ufro zustad,
kvleva moicavs Semdeg etapebs:
1. eeleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis Sefaseba dagegmvis periodis (2007-
2021) manZilze.
2. aarsebuli energosistemis mimoxilva, misi mdgomareobis, mosalodneli
saeqspluatacio periodis, eqspluataciis maxasiaTeblebis da ekonomikis
gavaliswinebiT.
3. iim yvela SesaZlo energiis wyaroebis gansazRvra, romelTac momavalSi
SeiZleba wvlili Seitanon saqarTvelos energomomaragebis sistemaSi.
4. TTiToeuli energiis wyaros SemTxvevaSi yvela mniSvnelovani informaciis
identifikacia, rac moicavs resursebis SesaZlo odenobas (energiis
odenobas, romelic SeiZleba iqnas miRebuli), teqnikur maxasiaTeblebs,
fass, garemosdacviT da socialur zegavlenas.
:
III
5. SSerCeviTi analizi, energogenraciis wyaroebis konkurentunarianobis
winaswari Sefasebis mizniT.
6. yvela mizanSewonili kandidatis gaTvaliswinebiT eenergogeneraciis
gazrdis umciresi Rirebulebis gegmis SemuSaveba.
7. eenergogeneraciis gazrdis alternatiuli scenarebis SemuSaveba im
riskebisa da gaurkvevlobebis ganxilvis mizniT, romlebic Tan axlavs
gakeTebul daSvebebsa da gamoyenebul Semaval sawyis monacemebs.
8. ggadamcemi qselis adeqvaturobis mimoxilva
9. garemoze zegavlenisa da socialuri zegavlenis Sefasebis wina
safexuris mimoxilva energogeneraciis gazrdis yoveli ZiriTadi
kandidatis SemTxvevaSi.
10. mravalkriteriumiani meTodologiis gamoyenebiT energogeneraciis
gazrdis alternatiuli scenarebis ranJireba (ICOR - iteraciuli
kompromisuli ranJireba) da im scenarebis identifikacia, romlebic
xasiaTdebian udidesi mTliani amonagebiT Rirebulebasa an arasasurvel
zegavlenebTan mimarTebaSi.
energogeneraciis gazrdis umciresi Rirebulebis gegmebi gansazRvraven
specifikur proeqtebs, romelTac minimumamde dahyavT energosistemis mTliani
Rirebuleba (investiciebis wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba (NPV) da aseve
eqspluataciis da sawvavis xarjebi) da akmayofileben eleqtroenergiaze
moTxovnilebis prognozs. aseve gansazRvrulia am energogeneraciis proeqtebis
xangrZlioba. energogeneraciis gazrdis dagegmvisaTvis gamoiyeneba
kompiuteruli modeli WASP IV (venis avtomaturi sistemis dagegmva),
romlelic xelmisawvdomia atomuri energetikis saerTaSoriso saagentos
(IAEA) saSualebiT da farTod gamoiyeneba msoflioSi.
mkvlevarTa jgufi2 eyrdnoboda sxvadasxva wyaroebs saWiro informaciis
mosapoveblad. jgufi estumra saqarTvelos da Sexvda dainteresebul pirebs -
saxelmwifo organizaciebs, saiJinro institutebs da arasamTavrobo
organizaciebs, romelTa umetesobam miawoda monacemebi da Tavisi wvlili
Seitana rogorc teqnikuri aspeqtebis, aseve socialuri da garemisdacviT
aspeqtebis ganxilvaSi. aseve, mkvlevarTa jgufi estumra hidrosadgurebis
proeqtebis ganxorcilebisaTvis SemoTavazebul adgilebs. aseve ganxorcielda
arsebuli literaturis mimoxilva da gamoyenebul iqna adre Sesrulebuli
kvlevis Sedegebi.
zemoT moyvanil safexurebad Catarebuli kvlevebis Sedegebi mocemulia am
angariSSi.
moTxovnilebis prognozi
eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis prognozirebis SesamuSaveblad Cveulebriv
gamoiyeneba ori meTodi:
2 South East Europe Consultants, Ltd. (SEEC)
:
IV
zemodan-qveviT meTodi, romelic dafuZnebulia makro-ekonomikis
ganviTarebasa (mag., demografia da mSp erT sul mosaxleze) da
energiis/eleqtroenergiis Sefasebul moxmarebas Soris
damokidebulebaze. energointensivoba iwinaswarmetyveleba mosalodnel
teqnologiur ganviTarebasa da ganxorcielebuli an dagegmili
energoefeqturobis zomebze dayrdnobiT.
qvevidan-zemoT meTodi: seqtorebis detaluri analizi, romelSic
Sefasebulia TiToeuli seqtoris zrda, saWiro eleqtroenergiis
odenoba da eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnaSi maTi Sesabamisi wili.
saqarTvelos SemTxvevaSi, gardamaval ekonomikaSi, orive meTods xvdeba
garkveuli siZneleebi. saerToa swrafi cvlilebebis winaswarmetyvelebis
sirTule. magaliTad, rogorc suraTi 1-zea naCvenebi samrewvelo seqtorma
ganicada yvelaze dramatuli cvlileba; misi wili eleqtroenergiis
moxmarebaSi 55-65%-dan 1990 wlamde periodSi daeca 20%-ze ufro dabla
ukanasknel wlebSi. am garemoebaTa gamo, energiaze moTxovnilebis prognozis
gakeTeba rTulia. amave dros, detaluri, qvemodan zeviT prognozis gakeTeba
cdeboda am kvlevis CarCoebs. Tumca unda aRiniSnos, rom aRmosavleT evropis
qveynebis gardamavali periodis ekonomikis gamocdileba sasargeblo iyo am
mimarTulebiT. aseve unda aRiniSnos, rom saqarTvelos ekonomikuri zrda bolo
10 weliwadSi ufro prognozirebadi xdeboda.
suraTi 1: seqtorebis wili eleqtroenergiis mTlian moxmarebaSi
mkvlevarTa jgufma ganixila eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis yvela prognozi,
SemuSavebuli energetikis saministros mier, aseve im kvlevebis Sedegebi,
romlebic dafinansebuli iyo iseTi organizaciebis mier rogoricaa aSS
0%10%20%30%
40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis struqtura (%)
sxva
mosaxleoba
transporti
soflis
meurneoba
mrewveloba
:
V
saerTaSoriso ganviTarebis saagento (USAID)3 4, KFW5da OECD6
da mivida im
daskvnamde, rom gamoyenebuli unda iqnas Semdegi sidideebi:
mosaxleobis eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis zrdis done 0,5% weliwadSi;
realuri mSp-s zrdis tempi 7% weliwadSi.
eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis elastiuroba mSp-s zrdasTan
mimarTbaSi 0.45%;
eleqtoenergiaze moTxovnilebis saSualo zrdis tempebi: 3% - 2005-
2020 wlebSi. es asaxavs saSualo wliuri moxmarebis intensivobis
(saboloo momxmareblis efeqturobis gazrda) Semcirebas 3.3%-iT (0.932 toe/$1000-dan 2005w. 0.562 toe/$1000 2021w). energiis intensivoba
axlosaa aRmosavleT evropis iseTi sxva qveynebis ekonomikasTan,
rogoricaa: somxeTi (0.74 toe/$1000), estoneTi (0.75 toe/$1000), litva
(0.63 toe/$1000), Llatvia(0.46 toe/$1000) da balkaneTis qveynebi (0.8-1.2toe/$1000). gadacemisa da ganawilebis danakargebi igulisxmeba, rom 8%-ia 2005-
2014 wlebSi da 6% 2015-2021 wlebSi.
simZlavrisa da generaciis miRebuli prognozebi mocemulia cxrilSi 1.
cxrili 1.bazisuri moTxovnilebis prognozi
maqs. simZlavre min. simZlavre generacia
(mgvt) (mgvt) (gvtsT)2007 1591 368 8167 2008 1640 379 8419 2009 1690 390 8675 2010 1741 402 8937 2011 1795 415 9214 2012 1850 427 9497 2013 1906 440 9784 2014 1965 454 10087 2015 2025 468 10395 2016 2087 482 10713 2017 2151 497 11042 2018 2209 510 11340 2019 2268 524 11642 2020 2330 538 11961 2021 2392 553 12279
3 Energy balance of the power sector of Georgia, Part 1: Analyses and proposals, and Part 2: Balances from 1960 to 2006, USAID, August 31, 2006
4 Natural gas strategy for Georgia, Part 1: Analyses and proposals, and Part 2: Economic and geopolitical context, USAID, May 6, 20065 Natural gas strategy for Georgia, Part 1: Analyses and proposals, and Part 2: Economic and geopolitical context, USAID, May 6, 20066 Regional Power Transmission Extension Plan for Caucasus Countries
:
VI
rogorc yovelTvis, moTxovnilebaze prognozi arasaimedoa, radgan is Zlieraa
damokidebuli qveynis ekonomikur aqtivobaze, mosaxleobis zrdaze,
struqturul cvlilebebze ekonomikaSi da energoefeqturobis zomebis
efeqturad gamoyenebaze. am SesaZlo uzustobebis mxedvelobaSi miRebis mizniT,
kvlevisas gamoyenebuli iqna dabali da maRali eleqtoenergiis scenarebi;
dabal scenarSi eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis nagulisxmevi zrdis done 2.5%-ia,
xolo maRal scenarSi 5%. Tumca arseboben parametrebi (magaliTad,
mosaxleobis zrdis dabali done da mSp-is potenciurad dabali zrdis done),
romlebic SeiZleba miuTiTeben, rom dabali prognozi (2.5%) SeiZleba
sakmarisad dabali ar iyos, magram am parametrebis dabalanseba xdeba energiis
intensivobis nagulisxmevi, SedarebiT dabali doniT. saaTobrivi moTxovnileba
da sezonuri fluqtuaciebi gamoyenebul iqna energogeneraciis gazrdis gegmis
SemuSavebisas.
arsebuli energosistema
saqarTvelos energogeneraciis dadgmuli simZlavre daaxloebiT 3,000mgvt, rac
moicavs 830mgvt gazze momuSave sadgurebs da 2,167mgvt hidrosadgurebs.
suraTi 2-ze naCvenebia arsebuli energosistema da miTiTebulia is adgilebi
(wreebiT), sadac SeiZleba ganTavsdes axali sadgurebi.
:
VII
suraTi 2. saqarTveloSi arsebuli energogeneraciis sistema da potenciuri
momavali sadgurebis ganlagebis adgilebi.
cxrili 2-Si mocemulia Tboeleqrtosadgurebi. TboerTeulebs Tbilsresi #3da #4 cota xnis win CautardaT reabilitacia da mosalodnelia, rom
:
VIII
imuSaveben 2014 wlamde. sxva sadgurebi (mtkvari bloki #9 da enerji-
investi) SedarebiT axalia da mosalodnelia rom imuSaveben 2021 wlamde.
cxrili 2. saqarTveloSi arsebuli Tboeleqtrosadgurebis maxasiaTeblebi
sadguris
dasaxeleba
sadgur
is tipi
dadgmu
li
simZla
vre
mgvt
xelmisa
wvdomi
simZlavr
e mgvt
FOR%
remont
is
dRe/we
li
cvladi
saeqsplu
atacio
xarji
$/mgvtsT
Tbounarian
oba
minimaluri
generaciis
dros
kkal/kvtsT
Tbounarian
oba maqsima-
luri
generaciis
dros
kkal/kvtsT
fiqsireb
uli
saeqspl
uatacio
xarjebi
milioni
$/weli
arsebuli sadgurebi
mtkvari
#9 STG 300 270 10.
0 30 2.55 3017 2244 5.32
Eenerji-
investi* CCGT 150 140 8.0 30 2.93 2048 1756 4.80
reabilitirebuli sadgurebi
Tbilsresi
#3 STG 150 125 10.
0 30 4.40 2867 2538 5.76
Tbilsresi
#4 STG 160 130 10.
0 30 4.40 2867 2530 5.76
Tavdapirvelad mowodebuli informaciiT mimdinareobda energji-
investisaTvis 40mgvt orTqlis turbinis damatebiTi dayeneba; analizis
dasrulebis Semdeg aRmoCnda, rom 40mgvt orTqlis turbina jer ar
dayenebula. yvela scenari ganixilavs am sadgurs rogorc 150mgvt
simZlavris kombinirebuli ciklis gazturbinas; Sesabamisad, scenarebs
Soris Sedarebaze es sadgurebi gavlenas ver axdenen.
saqarTveloSi aSenebulia daaxloebiT 60 hidroeleqtrosadguri, Tumca maTi
umetesoba patara sadgurebia da Sewyvites muSaoba mravali wlis winaT. muSa
mdgomareobaSi myofi hidrosadgurebi mocemulia cxrilSi 3.
cxrili 3. saqarTveloSi arsebuli hidrosadgurebis maxasiaTeblebi
# hidrosadguri dadgmuli simZlavre
(mgvt)
generacia (gvtsT)
1 enguri HPP 1300 31652 varcixe HPP 184 7643 vardnili HPP 340 4444 Jinvali HPP 130 4405 rioni HPP 48 2796 xrami 2 HPP 110 3017 xrami 1 HPP 112 2228 lajanuri HPP 112 2749 gumaTi HPP 66 23310 zahesi HPP 37 17011 Zevrula HPP 45 130
:
IX
12 Saori HPP 38 11813 xadori HPP 24 13414 sxva 134 455
enguri warmoadgens yvelaze did sadgurs, romelic gamoimuSavebs qveynis
mTliani eleqtroenergiis 44%-s. ukanaskneli 10 wlis manZilze, ganxorcielda
didi hidrosadgurebis umetesi nawilis reabilitacia; reabilitaciis
programis zegavlena mxedvelobaSi iqna miRebuli am gamokvlevaSi.
dagegmvis periodis manZilze hidrologiis prognozis SemuSavebis mizniT
gamoyenebul iqna istoriuli monacemebi. didi hidrosadgurebidan wylis
gadagdeba saSualod meryeobs -20%-dan +50%-mde. istoriul monacemebze
dayrdnobiT da arsebuli sadgurebis maxasiaTeblebis SefasebiT, SemuSavda
arsebuli hidrosadgurebis saSualo wliuri generaciis prognozi, romelic
moicavs generaciis zrdas ganpirobebul cota xnis winaT Catarebuli
sareabilitacio samuSaoebiT (ixile cxrili 4).
cxrili 4. arsebuli sadgurebis saSualo wliuri gamomuSaveba (saSualo
hidrologia)
wlebi
saSualo generacia
(gvtsT) wlebi
saSualo generacia
(gvtsT)2007 6976 2015 7795 2008 7380 2016 7836 2009 7510 2017 7878 2010 7520 2018 7878 2011 7638 2019 7878 2012 7608 2020 7878 2013 7679 2021 7878 2014 7715 2021 7878
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Mon
thly
gen
erat
ion
(GW
h)
Aver Dry
suraTi 3. arsebuli hidrosadgurebis Tviuri gamomuSaveba
:
X
rogorc suraTi 3 gviCvenebs, saSualo Tviuri generacia mniSvnelovnad
meryeobs gviani gazafxulidan zamTris sezonamde. maisidan ivlisamde, calke
aRebuli arsebuli hidroresursebi (Tbosadgurebis muSaobis gareSe)
sakmarisze metia saqarTvelos eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis
dasakmayofileblad. magaliTad, 2008 wlis maisSi, Sefasebulia, rom SesaZlo
hidrogeneracia gadaaWarbebs eleqtroenergiaze mTlian moxmarebas 255.2gvtsT;
SesaZlebelia da umjobesia am eleqtroenergiis eqsporti; sxva SemTxvevaSi
unda moxdes wylis daRvra/gadagdeba. zamTris Tveebis ganmavlobaSi
(gansakuTrebiT seqtembridan martis CaTvliT), moTxovnilebis
dasakmayofilebnlad saWiroa energiis sxva wyaroebidan mowodeba; amJamad, am
periodSi gamoiyeneba bunebriv gazze momuSave Tboeleqtrosadgurebi.
momavali moTxovnilebis dasakmayofileblad saWiro energogeneraciis
variantebi; teqnologiuri, ekonomikuri, garemosdacviTi da socialuri
zegavlenebi.
cxrilSi 5 Tavmoyrilia am kvlevis farglebSi ganxiluli yvela
energogeneraciis variantebis ZiriTadi maxasiaTeblebi. ufro detaluri
informacia mocemulia am angariSis 5-e nawilSi.
saqarTveloSi ukve arsebobs bbunebriv airze momuSave eleqtrosadgurebi.
saqarTvelos energosistemis zomis gaTvaliswinebiT, simZlavris gazrdisas
yvelaze misaReb erTeulad miCneul iqna 150mgvt dadgmuli simZlavris
kombinirebuli ciklis gazturbina (romelsac gaaCnia gazisa da orTqlis
turbinebi). kombinirebuli ciklis gazoturbina warmoadgens gaumjobesebul
gazis turbinas, ris Sedegadac gazrdilia misi efeqturoba da Semcirebulia
garemos dabinZurebis xarisxi; amJamad gamoiyofa orjer naklebi CO2, vidre
imave zomis qvanaxSiris sadguridan, xolo NOx gamosxiveba SeiZleba
gakontroldes 15-50 ppm farglebSi. agreTve, kombinirebuli ciklis
gazoturbinis SesaZenad da gasaSvebad mxolod 2-3 welia saWiro, rac
mniSvnelovnad naklebia vidre bevri sxva varianti (garda mcire ganaxlebadi
sadgurebisa). misi nakli mdgomareobs SemdegSi: bunebrivi airis maRali fasi
(rogorc wesi dakavSirebulia msoflioSi navTobis fasTan) da bunebrivi airis
erTi an mxolod ramodenime momwodebeli, rac saqarTvelosaTvis
dakavSirebulia energousafrTxoebis sakiTxTan.
qvanaxSirze momuSave eleqtrosadgurebis mSenebloba misaRebia
saqarTvelosaTvis da maT unda imuSaon importirebul an adgilobrivad
mopovebul qvanaxSirze. Tumca, maT gaaCniaT mniSvnelovani uaryofiTi mxare
garemoze zemoqmedebis TvalsazrisiT, kerZod: kerZod lokaluri (myari
nawilakebis gamoyofa haerSi, SO2 da NOx) da globaluri (CO2) dabinZureba;
ufro meti teritoriaa saWiro qvanaxSiris gadmosatvirTad da Sesanaxad, aseve
myari narCenebis gasatanad. amis garda, am mizniT saWiro iqneba
infrastruqturis (portebi importirebuli qvanaxSiris misaRebad da rkinigza
misi transportirebisaTvis) Semdgomi ganviTareba. generaciis gazrdis mizniT
optimalurad iqna miCneuli 300mgvt simZlavris qvanaxSirze momuSave
:
XI
eleqtosadguri, romelic daabalansebs damatebiTi simZlavris mcire nazrdze
moTxovnilebas da sargeblis miRebis survils warmoebis gazrdiT gamowveuli
ekonomiisagan (ufro didi sadgurebi).
ganixileba agreTve saqarTveloSi atomuri eleqtrosaduris mSeneblobis
sakiTxi: am variantis mimzidvelobas warmoadgens is, rom didi masStabebis
dros (1,000mgvt-ze meti) man SeiZleba konkurencia gauwios sxva variantebs da
is ar abinZurebs haers. Tumca, atomur proeqts hyavs mowinaaRmdegeni
sazogadoebis dainteresebuli jgufebis saxiT, rac agvianebs mis
ganxorcielebas da moqmedebs uaryofiTad proeqtis ekonomikur mxareze. bevr
qveyanaSi atomuri sadgurebis dizainis, nebarTvebis miRebis da
mSeneblobisaTvis mniSvnelovani droa saWiro (10 wlamde). agreTve sakiTxi
narCenebis movlis Sesaxeb gadauWreli rCeba. da bolos, birTvuli
teqnologiebis movla da gamoyenebuli sawvavis menejmenti, warmoSobs
usafrTxoebasTan dakavSirebuls sakiTxebs. saqarTvelosaTvis ganxilul iqna
ori atomuri sadguris arseboba: 1600mgvt da 600mgv
:
II
cxrili 5. energogeneraciis kandidatebis teqnikuri, ekonomikuri, garmosdacviTi da socialuri maxasiaTbelebi
energogeneracc
iis varianti
potenciali
(mgvt)
blokis
zoma
(mgvt)
wliuri
gamomuSa
veba
(gvtsT)
kapitaluri
danaxarjebi
( $/kvt)
fiqsirebuli
saeqsplutat
acio xarjebi
(($/kvt-Tve)
cvladi
saeqspluat
acio
xarjebi
( $/mgvtsT
sawvavis
xarjis
CaTvliT)
garemosdacviTi da socialuri zegavlena
sxva (energousafrTxoeba;
proeqtis mzad yofna)
gazze
momuSave
komb. ciklis
gazoturbina
ulimito;
1000-mde
dagegmvis
periodSi
150
maqs.
1091
gvtsT
1042
2.
8
50.6
-N
Ox:
<15
-50
ppm
- C
O2:
400
g.kvt
-gamcivebeli wyali
-gazis mowodeba –
damokidebuleba
ruseTze.
qvanaxSiris
sadguri
ulimito;
1000-mde
dagegmvis
periodSi
300
maqs.
1971
gvtsT
1562
2.
5 23
.7
-saWiro mowa::
0.6ha/mgvt
-mtveri: 5
0-10
0 mg/nm
3
- SO
2: 2
00-1
000 mg/nm
3
- NO
x: 2
00-8
00 mg
/nm
3
- CO
2: 9
00-1
100 g/kvtsT
-nacris gatana: 2
00-3
00,0
00 m3 /w
eli
-gamacivebeli wyali (1
0 m
3 /wm), magram SesZloa
iyos zRvis wyali
- adgilobriv mosaxleobaze potencialuri
uaryofiTi zegavlena, Tu ar iqna miRebuli
swori Tavidan amacilebeli zomebi
-moiTxovs
infrastruqturis
(portebi da rkinigza)
ganviTarebas
atomuri
ulimito;
3000-mde
dagegmvis
periodSi
600/
1600
maqs.
4340
/11
800
gvtsT
2500
/20
005.
05
10.5
/9.8
-g
adawyvetis arqona gamoyenebuli sawvavis
gadasayrelad
- radiaciuli gaJonvis potenciuri riski;
saWiroa evakuaciis gegma
-mniSvnelovani moTxovnileba gamacivebel wyalze
-gamoyenebuli sawvavis
usafrTxoeba
- atomuri sadguris
eqspluatacia moiTxovs
mniSvnelovan treinings
-proeqtis ganxorcielebas
SeiZleba 10 welze meti
dasWirdes
mcire hesebi
P<10mgvt
125
522
3000
0.
9-
minimaluri zegavlena garemoze
-narCenebis
garantirebulad gatanas
:
III
10
<P<5
0mgvt
250
25
99
2700
0.
9 --
pativi unda vceT.
- adgilebze
gamokvlevebisaTvis
saWiroa dro.
qari
3,300
romelTaga
n 120
dagegmvis
periodSi
6x1.
5 27
16
00
1.3
5 -uaryofiTi vizualuri efeqti da xmauri
- frinvelebze zemoqmedeba
-potenciuri zegavlena
qselis stabilurobaze
im SemTxvevaSi
procentuli wili
mTlian
eleqtrogeneraciaSi
didia
geoTermuli
15
<1
118
3500
8.
75
4 - mineralebis arseboba da saSiSi
arakondensirebadi gazebi
biomasa
10
- 61
30
00
7.5
8
(sawvavis
xarjis
gareSe)
- NO
x gamosxiveba da mcire raodenobis mtveri
-biomasebis kargi menejmenti gazrdis
gamosayenebeli miwis sidides
faravnis
hesi
120
120
0.9
- derivaciis tipis sadguri, romelic zegavlenas
axdens mcire farTobze da ar aqvs rezervuari
-zegavlenas ar axdevs nargavebsa da faunaze
namaxvanis
hesi
450
450
0.9
-gavlenis qveS eqceva sasoflo-sameurneo miwis
297 heqtari (1.85ha/mgvt)
- mcire zegavlena hidrologiis reJimze
- rezervuari gaauaresebs wylis xarisxs
- ar eqneba zegavlena nargavebze
- mcire zegavlena Tevzebis nairsaxeobaze
- unda gasaxldes 279 ojaxi
- turizmis ganviTareba
-gamodgeba gaTbobis
mizniTac
xudonis
hidrosadgur
i
638
638
0.9
gavlenis qveS eqceva 478ha, ZiriTadad ara
sasoflo-sameurneo daniSnulebis
- mcire zegavlena hidrologiis reJimze
- rezervuari gaauaresebs wylis xarisxs
- zegavlenas ar moaxdens mcenareebze
- mcire zegavlena Tevzebis nairsaxeobaze
dadebiTi zegavlena
enguris hidrosadgursa
da rezervuarze, rac
moicavs:
-danaleqebis warmoSobis
ufro neli procesi
:
IV
-unda gasaxldes 1,500 ojaxi
- aSendeba gza
-turizmis ganviTarebas Seuwyobs xels
- wylis ukeTesi xarisxi
-eleqtroenergiis
gamomuSavebis gazrda
:
V
ganaxlebadi energia7: saqarTvelo dajildoebulia mniSvnelovani odenobis
ganaxlebadi resursebiT. mcire simZlavris hidrosadgurebis (TiToeuli
10mgvt-ze naklebi) potenciali Sefasebulia 125mgvt-iT, maSin roca sxva
250mgvt simZlavre SesaZlebelia dadges 10-50mgvt sadgurebis saxiT. qaris
energiis potenciali Sefasebulia 3,300mgvt-is tolad, xolo gamomuSavebuli
energia 83tvtsT/weli; aqedan 120mgvt simZlavre SesaZlebelia rom mwyobrSi
Cadges am gegmis ganxorcielebis periodSi. Sefasebulia, rom ganaxlebadi
wyaroebis wili saqarTvelos energo balansSi 2015 wels mosalodnelia iyos
8%. amaSi qaris da im hidro proeqtebis wili, romelTa simZlavre naklebia
10mgvt-ze 3.5 %-is tolia. 2021 wlisaTvis am wilis sididem SeiZleba
miaRwios 15%, romelSic qaris da im hidro proeqtebis wili, romelTa
simZlavre naklebia 10mgvt-ze 7% toli iqneba. aseve xelmisawvdomi iqneba
geoTermuli energia, magram SedarebiT dabali temperaturis gamo is ufro
gaTbobisaTvis gamodgeba, vidre eleqtroenergiis gamosamuSaveblad; SefasebiT
daaxloebiT 15mgvt geoTermuli simZlavre SeiZleba iqnas gamoyenebuli
eleqtroenergiis gamosamusSaveblad dagegmvis periodis ganmavlobaSi. biomasis
resursebi Sefasebulia 350,000tona/weli, magram ar arsebobs adeqvaturi
informacia misi mizanSewonilebisa da konkurentunarianobis Sesaxeb. da
bolos, SesaZlebelia eleqtroenergiis miReba mzis sxivebidan, magram es gza
naklebad konkurentunariania foto elementebis teqnologiis maRali fasis
gamo. mniSvnelovani dabrkoleba ganaxlebadi wyaroebis danergvisas iqneba
adgilisTvis damaxasiaTebeli specifikis winaswari Seswavlis ararseboba.
ganaxlebadi energia (didi hidrosadgurebis gamoklebiT) xasiaTdeba yvelaze
mcire zegavleniT garemoze; maT ar gaCniaT romelime tipis mniSvnelovani
gamonabolqvi da gaaCniaT unari Secvlon wiaRiseul sawvavze momuSave
energogeneraciia, rac Seamcirebs warmoSobili CO2 raodenobas. Tumca, maT
gaaCniaT garkveuli zemoqmedeba da saWiroa adeqvaturi zomebis miReba maT
minimumamde dasayvanad. magaliTad, qaris energoeneracias SesaZloa hqondes
uaryofiTi vizualuri da xmovani efeqtebi da SesaZloa zegavlena moaxdinos
frinvelebis migraciaze. geoTermuli siTxeebi SeiZleba Seicavdnen gogirds,
mineralebs, saSiS arakondensirebad gazebs da CO2 gamosxivebas, magram maTi
7wyaroebi:
Strategic Assessment of the Potential for Renewable Energy in the EBRD Countries of Operation (COO), Stage 1., Black & Veatch Corporation, 2003. - Blue Energy for A Green Europe, Strategic study for the development of Small Hydro Power in the European Union, 2002. – Capacity building to assess technology needs modalities to asquire and absorb them, evaluate and host projects, National Agency on Climate Change at the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection, 2002 – Strategic/Sectoral Social and Environmental Assessment of Power Development Options in the Nile Equatorial Lakes Region, SNC Lavalin Internation, 2007 – Generation Investment Study for SEE region, EC and World Bank, 2005 – Small HPPs in Serbia, IFC, 2005 - Georgia- Wind Atlas, 2004 - G.Buachidze, O. Vardigorelli, N.Tsertsvadze. Country Update from Georgia. Proceedings World Geothermal Congress 2000, Tokyo, 2000. - A Strategic Plan for the Development of European Geothermal Sector. Blue Book on Geothermal Resources, European Communities, 1999.
:
VI
kontroli SesaZlebelia sadguris Sesabamisi dizainis xarjze. aseve, saWiroa
rom biomasis resursebis dagroveba da mopoveba xdebodes saTanado wesiT.
didi hidroeleqtrosadgurebi: saqarTveloSi didi hidroeleqtrosadgurebis
arsebobis mniSvnelovani potenciali arsebobs. rogoc yvelaze imedis momcemi
xuTi didi hidrosadguri gamoikveTa: xudoni, faravani, tviSi, namaxvani da
Joneti. am sadgurebis ZiriTadi maxasiaTeblebi mocemulia cxrilSi 6 xolo
suraTze 4 naCvenebia maTi Tviuri generacia.
cxrili 6. kandidati hidroeleqtrosadgurebis ZiriTadi maxasiaTeblebi
Tviuri generacia (gvtsT)
Tve xudoni faravani tviSi namaxvani JoneTi
1 96 26 13 30 9 2 66 26 40 93 29 3 74 25 40 93 29 4 103 32 52 118 36 5 171 60 39 89 28 6 180 59 39 89 28 7 180 59 39 89 28 8 112 51 33 74 23 9 103 26 29 64 20 10 59 27 25 56 17 11 85 24 24 55 17 12 99 25 22 49 15
sruli
generacia 1328 440 395 897 276 dadgmuli
simZlavre
(mgvt) 638 120 100 250 100 investiciis
odenoba
(milioni $) 603.8 112.9 145.6 321.6 173.0 mSeneblobis
periodi
(weli) 5 3 4 5 4
:
VII
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Months
Mon
thly
gen
erat
ion
(GW
h)
Khudoni Cascada Namakhvani
suraTi 4. hidroeleqtrosadgurebis kandidatebis Tviuri generacia
xudonis hidroeleqtrosadguri
xudoni warmoadgens enguris kaskadis sistemis nawils, romlis nawili
(saqarTvelos udidesi hidrosadguris enguris CaTvliT) aSenda 1980-ian
wlebSi (ix. suraTi 5). mdinare enguris kaskadis sistema amJamad moicavs 5
hidrosadgurs: enguri (1300mgvt), vardnili I (220mgvt), vardnili II
(40mgvt), vardnili III (40mgvt), vardnili IV (40mgvt); Tumca aRsaniSnavia,
rom bolo sami sadguri ar muSaobs (datborilia saeqspluatacio samuSaoebis
naklebobisa da 1990ian wlebSi afxazeTis konfliqtis gamo). mdinare enguri
saTaves iRebs da moedineba mxolod saqarTvelos teritoriaze, Sesabamisad ar
dgeba wylis saerTaSoriso gamoyenebis sakiTxi.
mdinaris mTliani vardna daaxloebiT 2600m, wylis auzis farTobi 4063km2 da
mTliani sigrZe 221km. wylis auzis saSualo grZelvadiani Camonadeni
daaxloebiT 5.35 milioni m3, wliuri hidroenergiis potenciali Sefasebulia
21 miliard kvtsT (5.5 miliardi kvtsT ukve realizirebulia).
xudonis kaSxlis da hidrosadguris mSenebloba daiwyo 1979 wels viwro
kanionSi damreci napirebiT, daaxloebiT 34 km-iT xemoT enguris TaRovani
kaSxlidan (ix suraTi 5). proeqti moicavs Tarovan kaSxals, saderivacio
gvirabs, dabali donis wylis gamSvebebsa da 500kv gadamcem xazs. Tumca
mSenebloba Sewyda 1989 wels rogorc politikuri movlenebis gamo, aseve
garkveuli garemosdacviTi aspeqtebisa da seismurobis gaTvaliswinebiT.
Semdgom Catarda kvlevebi garemoze zemoqmedebis, ekologiuri, mosaxleobis
:
VIII
gasaxlebis da seismuri aspeqtebis Sesaxeb, romlis Sedegad proeqtis dizaini
Seicvala 1992 wels Semdegnairad:
gaTvlebi miwisZvrisadmi medegobaze gaizarda 8 balidan 9 balamde
rixteris SkaliT.
kaSxlis simaRle Semcirda 200m-dan 170.5-mde.
rezervuaris zedapiri Semcirda 5.2-dan 4.0km2-mde.
datbovis areali Semcirda 528-dan 406 heqtaramde.
rezervuaris moculoba Semcirda 364.5-dan 230 milion m3-mde.
generaciis simZlavre Semcirda 700-dan 638mgvt-mde.
SefasebiTi wliuri gamomuSaveba Semcirda 1660gvtsT-dan 1328gvtsT-mde.
suraTi 5. mdinare engurze hidrosadgurebis kaskadebis sistema xudonis
CaTvliT.
xudonis rezervuaris zegavlena mikroklimatis cvlilebaze SezRuduli iqneba
mcire zoliT, daaxloebiT 1km daSorebaze wylidan. am areSi cvlilebebi
ZiriTadad dadebiTi xasiaTis iqneba, rac gamoixateba haeris temperaturis
eqstremaluri oscilaciebis SemcirebaSi. daaxloebiT miwis 406 heqtari
(arasasoflo-sameurneo daniSnulebis) miTvisebuli iqneba proeqtis mier, Tu
is ganxorcieldeba zemoT aRwerili proeqtis mixedviT.
mosalodnelia, rom rezervuars eqneba gamoxatuli stratifikacia (frudis ricxvi (Fr), stratifikaciis indikatori naklebia 0.1-ze). xudonis
rezervuarisTvis wylis mimocvla tolia 18 (4125 milion m3/230 milioni m3),
rac imas niSnavs rom mTeli wyali mimoicvleba 18-jer wlis ganmavlobaSi anu
sxvanairad wylis minocvlis saSualo periodi aris 20 dRe. es parametrebi
miuTiTeben imaze, rom wylis cvlis finalur stadiaze (roca biocenosi
stabiluri xdeba da moxdeba biomasis ganawilebis dabalanseba rezevuaris
kveTis gaswvriv), rezervuarSi wylis xarisxi oligotropiul doneze iqneba, an
uares SemTxvevaSi, mezotropiul doneze, rac damokidebulia Sesabamisi
:
IX
farTobis gamoyenebasa da dacvis xerxebze da raTqmaunda rezervuaris
menejmentze.
rezervuarSi wylis mdgomareoba xelsayreli ineba iseTi Tevzebis jiSisaTvis,
romlebsac aqvT maRali moTxovnileba Jangbadze (kalmaxis tipis jiSebi –
sxvadasxva saxis kalmaxi, wvera, karCxali da sxva). kavkasiis
biomravalferovnebis arsebuli monacemebiT xudonis rezervuaris dacul
farTobze an ufro did farTobze ar aris gadaSenebis saSiSroebis qveS myofi
mcenareebis jiSebi. aseTi didi mdinare bunebrivad warmoadgens SezRudvas
cxovelTa gadaadgilebaSi, ris safuZvelzec SegviZlia vivaraudoT rom
rzervuaris avseba ar Secvlis da damatebiT dabrkolebas ar Seqmnis cxovelTa
gadaadgilebaSi. saqarTvelos garemosa da bunebrivi resursebis dacvis
saministros momzadebuli siis Tanaxmad, im teritoriaze, romelsac moicavs
xudonis rezervuari xudonis kaSxalis CaTvliT, ar mdebareoben bunebrivi
nakrZalebi, nacionaluri parkebi da sanadiro nakrZalebi. da bolos,
rezervuarisaTvis saSiSi ar aris seismuroba. zemo svaneTis arqiteqturuli
Zeglebs, romlebic 1996 wlidan Sesulia UNESCO-s msoflio dacul
teritoriebSi, xudonis rezervuaris mxridan ar emuqreba safrTxe, ragan maTi
mdebareoba ufro maRalia rezervuaris doneze.
mosalodnelia, rom xudonis rezrvuari datboravs 6 dasaxlbul punqts:
xaiSi, zemo xaiSi, qveda xaiSi, luxi, wvirminda da Tobaris soflebi. saWiro
gaxdeba 264 ojaxis, rac daaxloebiT Seadgens 1000 adamians (1990 wlis
monacemebiT, exlandeli SefasebiT 1500) sxva teritoriaze gadasaxleba.
arsebobs garkveuli istoriuli monumentebi, romelTa Soris potenciurad
xvdeba Zveli sasaflaoc, da romelTa gadatana iqneba saWiro. am gadatanis
operaciis saboloo adgilmdebareoba da dro unda SeTanxmdes Sesabamis
samTavrobo organoebTan, religiur uflebamosil pirebTan da macxovreblebTan.
radgan xudonis rezervuari ganTavsebuli iqneba enguris rezervuarze maRla
mas eqneba dadebiTi zegavlena enguris rezrvuarze. kerZod:
rezervuari naklebad aivseba SlamiT, gansakuTrebiT ki didi zomebis
fragmentebiT. 90-iani wlebidan dagrovili danaleqi (Sefasebuli
danaleqis done kaSxlidan zemoT 50m-ze) Zalian mniSvnelovania. es
mniSvnelovani xelsayreli aspeqtia engurisaTvis.
wylis ukeTesi xarisxi, radganac zeda rezervuari (xudoni) imoqmedebs
rogorc damleqi;
naklebad iqneba saWiro wylis daRvra wyaldidobis/Tovlis dnobis
pikSi;
energogeneracis gazrda engurze; radganac ar gakeTebula Sesabamisi
Sefaseba es sargebeli ar Sesula kvlevis ekonomikur analizSi.
sxvadasxva organizaciebis mier gakeTebuli winaswari SefasebiT
eneqtroenergiis generacia engurze unda gaizardos 0.3tvtsT
weliwadSi. es albaT maqsimumia, magram generirebuli eleqtroenergiis
raRac zrdas mainc eqneba adgilia.
:
X
faravnis hidrosadguri
faravnis hidroeleqtrosadguris mSenebloba ganixileba mdinare faravanze,
romlis mTliani sigrZea 66km, 960m vardniT, saSualo daxriloba 13%,
2278km2 wylis rezervuaris farTobi da saSualo simaRle 2130m. wyali
mdinares miewodeba Tovlisgan, wvimebisagan da miwisqveSa wylebisagan.
faravnis hidrosadguri ganlagebulia mdinaris bolo nawilSi da gaaCnia
yvelaze didi daxra mdinaris sxva nawilebTan SedarebiT. saSualo wliuri
Camodinebaa 16.7m3/wm da vardna 400m. es garemoeba, mTavar gzasTan siaxlovis
faqtorTan erTad axdens umniSvnelovanes dadebiTi zegavlenas mis teqnikur da
ekonomikur maxasiaTeblebze. mosalodnelia, rom faravnis sadguris dadgmuli
simZlavre iqneba 120mgvt, 440gvtsT saSualo wliuri gamomuSavebiT. sadguris
saTavo ansambli aerTianebs mcire simaRlis betonis kaSxals, wylis Ria
mimRebs da saleqars. zeda auzis fskeri zRvis donidan aris 1534m. proeqtis
danarCeni teqniluri parametrebi mocemulia cxrilSi 7.
cxrili 7. faravnis kaSxlisa da hidroproeqtis ZiriTadi parametrebi
parametri erTeulifaravnis hesi
zeda auzis Ziri m.zRv. don. 1525bunebrivi wylis wliuri xarji m3/wm 16,7 hesis wylis SefasebiTi xarji m3/wm 39,0 turbinis tipi kaplani
blokebis ricxvi 3 hesis maqsimaluri statikuri wneva m 395,0 SefasebiTi wneva m 364,0 dadgmuli simZlavre mgvt 122,92 eleqtroenergiis saSualo wliuri
gamomuSavebagvtsT 440,00
faravnis hesi warmoadgens derivaciis tipis sadgurs. imis gaTvaliswinebiT,
rom sadguri akmayofilebs moTxovnilebas wylis nakadis garantirebuli
minimumis Sesaxeb mSrali sezonis ganmavlobaSi, hesTan dakavSirebuli sxva
mniSvnelovani sakiTxi aRar warmoiSveba. mdinaresa da faravnis tbaSi ar aris
daculi an iSviaTi Tevzis jiSebi. Tu arsebobs romelime Tevzis jiSi,
romelic migrirebs tbidan dabla, kaSxlis dizaini ise unda iyos gakeTebuli,
rom darwmunebuli viyoT, rom Tevzebze zegavlenas ar moaxdens. naleqi,
romelic daileqeba Slamis SemkrebSi mosalodnelia, rom iqneba kargi xarisxis
da SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnas samSeneblo masalad. es qmnis proeqtis dadebiT
efeqts.
namaxvanis hidrosadguris kaskadi mdinare rionze
:
XI
namaxvanis kaskadi moicavs sam hidrosadgurs - tviSi, namaxvani, JoneTi –
ganlagebuls mdinare rionze, dasavleT saqarTvelos udides mdinareze. wylis
mTliani farTobia 13418km2, xolo mdinaris sruli sigrZra 327km. saSualo
wliuri wylis xarjia 127m3/wm an 4.9 milioni m3. mdinare rionze ukve
aSenebulia 8 didi hidrosadguri: lajanuri (namaxvanis kaskadis zemoT),
gumaTi I da II, rioni da varcixe I,II,III da IV.
namaxvanis kaskadis ZiriTadi parametrebi mocemulia cxrilSi 8.
mikroklimatis cvlileba namaxvanis kaskadis midamoebSi mosalodnelia rom
minimaluri iqneba. tenianoba SedarebiT maRalia, rac dadebiT zegavlenas axdens
florasa da biologiuri saxeebis mravalferovnebaze am adgilas. rezervuari
da mdinaris napirebi moaxdenen zegavlnas saerTo farTze, romelic moicavs
sasoflo-sameurneo daniSnulebis miwis 296.94 heqtarisa, romelTagan 27.06ha
saTibebia, 152.50ha saZovrebi, 32.90ha baRebi, 29.93ha venaxebi, 51.60ha kerZo
fermebi da 2.95ha Cais plantaciebi.
cxrili 8. namaxvanis hidro kaskadis ZiriTadi parametrebi
parametri zomis
erTeuli
tviSis
hesi
namaxvanis
hesi
JoneTi
hesi
wyalgamyofi km2 3220 3425 3520 hidrometeorologiuri
monitoringis periodi wlebi 55 55 55
wylis wliuri nakadimilioni
m3 4860 4910 4980
wylis dinebis zomis
maxasiaTeblebi:
a) mravalwliani saSualo m3/wm 154 156 158 b) maqsimumi 0.01%
momaragebiT m3/wm 3630 3700 3700
rezervuaris parametrebi: a) wylis normaluri
done m. zRvis
donidan 360 310 232
b) wylis zedapiri
farTobikm2 0.74 4.9 1.25
g)wylis donis daweva m 3 12 6
d)sruli moculobamilioni
m3 13.1 156 12.5
e) sasargeblo moculobaMmilioni
m3 1.8 52.0 6.0
regulirebis tipi - SezRuduli
dRiurisezonuri dRiuri
wylis dawneva maqsimuni m 36.8 83.6 32.0 b) normaluri m 33.3 75.5 27.0
:
XII
g) minimumi m 30.0 64.5 24.4 wylis normaluri nakadi m3/wm 336 366 416 hesis simZlavre a) dadgmuli mgvt 2x50 = 100 2x125 = 250 2x50 = 100b) garantirebuli mgvt 9 26.3 6 saSualo wliuri
gamomuSaveba GgvtsT
395 897 276 muSaobis xangrZlioba
(mravalwliani) saSualo
dadgmul simZlavreze
weliwadSi
saaTebi 4035 3712 3460
aseTi didi mdinare ukve bunebrivi sazRvaria cxovelTa gadaadgilebisas;
rezervuaris avsebam ar unda gamoiwvios cvlileba cxovelTa gadaadgilebaSi.
im teritoriaze, romelic daitboreba ar aris daculi an iSviaTi jiSebi.
lamazi landSafti da turistuli marSrutebis arseboba, agreTve is faqti,
rom namaxvanis kaskadis sistema mdebareobs SedarebiT mWidrod dasaxlebul
arealSi, did raionul centrTan axlos (quTaisi), qmnis xelsayrel pirobebs
turizmis ganviTarebisaTvis da rekreaciuli zonis Sesaqmnelad. rekreaciuli
da turistuli nagebobebis mTeli kompleqsi SeiZleba Seiqmnas rezervuaris
maxloblad.
ar aris mosalodneli, rom wylis xarisxi gauaresdeba namaxvanis kaskadebis
sistemis rezervuarebis Seqmnis gamo. tviSis da JoneTis rezervuarebSi,
Termul stratifikacias ar eqneba adgili (Termuli stratifikaciis fraudis
ricxvi 1.0-ze didia). wyali icvleba daaxloebiT dReSi erTxel, rac
amtkicems, rom wylis xarisxis parametrebi igive iqneba, rac rezervuaris
zemoT mdinareSi. namaxvanis rezervuarSi mosalodnelia Termuli
stratifikacia, magram is ar iqneba didi (0.1<Fr<1 – mcire stratifikacia), da aseTi stratifikacia mniSvnelovnad ver Secvlis wylis xarisxis parametrebs.
wyali icvleba daaxloebiT 12 dReSi, rac agreTve miuTitebs, rom wylis
xarisxi ar gauaresdeba.
epidemiologiur zonaSi malariis gavrcelebis faqtorebis analizma aCvena, rom
mSeneblobiT gamowveuli malariis SemTxvevebis raodenobis gazrda ar unda
iyos ugulebelyofili. rekomendirebulia Semdegi kvlevis Catareba da
Semarbilebeli RonisZiebaTa Catareba.
namaxvanis kaskadis adgilas damaxasiaTebeli regionaluri teqtonikuri
Tvisebebis mimoxilvam da analizma gviCvena, rom kaskadis sistema ar gaxdeba
mizezi seismurobis gamowvevisa.
namaxvanis hesis kaskadis mSenebloba (wyaltubos raionis inventarizaciis
biuros informaciis Tanaxmad) zegavlenas moaxdens 202 fermaze wyaltubosa
:
XIII
da cageris raionebSi, da 436 adamianze. istoriis, arqeologiis da
eTnografiis institutebma miuTiTes 27 Zeglze, romelTa Seswavlaa saWiro.
kandidati proeqtebis ZiriTadi maxasiaTeblebi da zegavlena.
ZiriTadi teqnikuri maxasiaTeblebis garda, winaswari Seswavlis safuZvelze
Sefasda sxvadasxva kandidati proeqtis garemosdacviTi da socialuri
zegavlena.
garemosdaciTi kriteriumi moicavs sxvadasxva hidrosadgurebis garemoze
zemoqmedebas CO2 gamosxivebis gareSe, rac TavisTavad warmoadgens kriteriums.
garemoze zemoqmedebis kriteriumis mniSvnelobebi (ENV) miRebulia Semdegi
zegavlenebis analizis safuZvelze (gansazRvrulia rogorc qvekritetiumebi):
E1 sistemis zemoqmedebis qveS myofi farTobi (rezervuari da sadguri)
E2 klimatze zemoqmedeba
E3 haerSi gamonabolqvze zemoqmedeba
E4 hidrologiur reJimze zemoqmedeba
E5 wylis xarisxze zemoqmedeba
E6 mcenareebze zemoqmedeba
E7 faunaze zemoqmedeba
E8 landSaftze zemoqmedeba
E9 energiis wyaroebis ganaxlebadoba
yoveli es kriteriumi me-5 TavSi mocemul mimoxilvaSi calcalkea
gansazRvruli xudonhesis, namaxvanis kaskadis hesis, faravnis hesis, bunebriv
airze momuSave Tbosadgurebisavis, qvanaxSirze momuSave
TboeleqtrosadgurebisaTvis, ganaxlebadi sadgurebisaTvis – mini da mcire
hidrosadgurebisaTvis da qaris sadgurebisaTvis. kriteriumebis mniSvnelobebi
Sejamebulia TiToeuli eleqtrosadguris sistemisaTvis, xolo Semdeg
ganviTarebis TiToeuli alternativisaTvis, masSi Semavali eleqtrosadgurebis
gaTvalswinebiT (cxrili 12).
socialuri zegavlenis kriteriumebi (SOC) moicaven sxvadasxva sadgurebis
zegavlenas sazogadoebaze (mosaxleoba, kultura da istoria). zemoTmoyvanili
garemoze zemoqmedebis kriteriumebis analogiurad, socialuri zegavlenis
kriteriumebi fasdeba 5-e TavSi mocemuli analizis safuZvelze da jgufis
wevrebis - eqspertebis codniT. eleqtrosadgrebis (hesebi, bunebriv airsa da
qvanaxSirze momuSave Tbosadgurebi) da damatebiTi proeqtebis yvelaze
mniSvnelovan zegavlenebs gaukeTdaT analizi am kriteriumSi Semavali Semdegi
qvekriteriumebis Seswavlis gziT:
S1 mosaxleobis gadasaxlebaze zegavlena
S2 soflis meurneobis warmadobaze zegavlena
S3 transportis infrastruqturaze zegavlena
S4 rekreaciisa da turizmis ganviTarebis SesaZlebloba
S5 adgilobrivi mosaxleobis janmrTelobaze zegavlena
:
XIV
midgoma igivea, rac garemoze zemoqmedebis kriteriumis dadgenisas. TiToeuli
es kriteriumi calcalkea gansazRvruli xudonhesis, namaxvanis kaskadis hesis,
faravnis hesis, bunebriv airze momuSave Tbosadgurebis, qvanaxSirze momuSave
Tboeleqtrosadgurebis, ganaxlebadi sadgurebis – mini da mcire
hidrosadgurebis da qaris sadgurebis SemTxvevebSi.
kandidati proeqtebis maxasiaTeblebis Semajamebeli informacia mocemulia
cxrilSi 9.
:
XV
cxrili 9. kandidati proeqtebis Semajameeli maxasiaTeblebi
gazi
150mgvt
importireb
uli
qvanaxSiri
300mgvt
xudon
hesi
namaxvanis
kaskadi
faravnis
hesi
mcire
hesebi
10mgvt-ze
naklebi
patara
hesebi
10-
50mgvt
qaris
sadgurebi
sadguris
simZlavre
(mgvt)
150 300 638 450 123 5 25 9
saSualo
generacia
(gvtsT)
1328 1678 440 22 99 27
kapitaluri
danaxarjebi
(mil. dolari)
150 428 604 641 113 15 67.5 14.4
kapitaluri
danaxarjebi
(dol/kvt)
1042 1562 947 1424 919 3000 2700 1600
mSeneblobis
periodi
(weli)
3 4 5 4/5/4 3 2 3 2
SesaZlo
gaSvebis weli2011 2011 2013 2013 2013 2011 2011 2011
zegavlenis
farTobi
umniSvnel
o
mcired
uaryofiTi
mcired
uaryofiT
i
mniSvnelovn
ad
uaryofiTi
umniSvnel
oumniSvnelo umniSvnelo
zegavlena
klimatze
mcired
uaryofi
Ti
mcired
uaryofiTiumniSvnel
oumniSvnelo
umniSvnel
oumniSvnelo umniSvnelo
zegavlena
haerSi
gamonabolqvze
mcired
uaryofiT
i
mniSvnelovn
ad
uaryofiTi
umniSvnel
oumniSvnelo
umniSvnel
oumniSvnelo umniSvnelo
hidrologiur
reJimze
zegavlena
umniSvnel
oumniSvnelo
mcired
uaryofiT
i
mcired
uaryofiTiumniSvnel
o
mcired
uaryofiTiumniSvnelo
wylis
xarisxze
zegavlena
mcired
uaryofiT
i
mniSvnelovn
ad
uaryofiTi
mcired
uaryofiT
i
mcired
uaryofiTiumniSvnel
oumniSvnelo umniSvnelo
mcenareebze
zegavlena
mcired
uaryofi
Ti
mcired
uaryofiTiumniSvnel
oumniSvnelo
umniSvnel
o
umniSvnelo umniSvnelo
faunaze
zegavlena
mcired
uaryofi
Ti
mcired
uaryofiTi
mcired
uaryofiT
i
mcired
uaryofiTi
umniSvnel
o
umniSvnelomniSvnelovna
d uaryofiTi
landSaftze
zegavlena
umniSvnel
o
mniSvnelovn
ad
uaryofiTi
umniSvnel
o
umniSvnelo umniSvnel
o
umniSvnelomcired
uaryofiTi
energowyar.
ganaxlebadobaara ara diax
diax diax diax diax
mosaxleobis
gasaxlebaze
zegavlena
umniSvne
lo
umniSvnelo mniSvnelo
vnad
uaryofiT
i
mcired
uaryofiTi
umniSvnel
o
umniSvnelo umniSvnelo
soflis
meurneobaze
zegavlena
umniSvnel
o
mcired
uaryofiTi
umniSvnel
o
mcired
uaryofiTi
umniSvnel
o
umniSvnelo umniSvnelo
:
XVI
satransporto
infrastruqtu
raze
zegavlena
umniSvne
lo
umniSvnelo
mcired
dadebiTi
umniSvnelo umniSvnel
o
umniSvnelo umniSvnelo
rekriaciasa da
turizmze
zegavlena
umniSvnel
o
mniSvnelovn
ad
uaryofiTi
mcired
dadebiTi
mniSvnelovn
ad
dadebiTi
umniSvnel
o
umniSvnelomcired
uaryofiTi
mosaxleobis
janmrTelobaze
zegavlena
umniSvnel
o
mcired
uaryofiTi
umniSvnel
o
umniSvnelo umniSvnel
o
umniSvnelo umniSvnelo
Tbogeneraciis variantebis gadarCeva
Tboeleqtrogeneraciis variantebis gadarCeva (bunebriv airze momuSave
kombinirebuli ciklis gazoturbina, importirebuli da adgilobrivi
qvanaxSiri, atomuri) moxda maTi ekonomikurobi winaswari Seswavlis
safuZvelze, raTa gamoricxuliyo ekonomikurad cxadad miuRebeli variantebi.
6-e naxazze mocemulia am variantebisTvis warmoebis Rirebuleba rogorc
sadguris simZlavris faqtoris funqcia.
suraTi 6. Tbogeneraciis variantebis gadarCeva
simZlavris faqtorebis didi mniSvnelobisaTvis yvelaze konkurentunarian
variants warmoadgenen importirebuli qvanaxSiri da 1600mgvt atomuri
sadguri. Tumca, saqarTveloSi simZlavris maRali faqtori
TbosadgurebisaTvis, imis gaTvaliswinebiT rom eleqtroenergiis mniSvnelovani
saqarTvelos Tbosadgurebis kandidatebi
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100sadguris simZlavris faqtori (%)
wliuri xarji ($/kvt-weli)
importirebuli naxSiro 300mgvt
adgilobrivi naxSiro 300mgvt
atomuri – 600mgvt
atomuri – 1600mgvt
komb. cikli – 150mgvt
:
XVII
nawili gamomuSavdeba hidrosadgureis mier, SeiZleba miRweul iqnas mxolod
eleqtroenergiis mniSvnelovani eqsportis xarjze. es SeiZleba ekonomikurad
gamarTlebli iyos grZel periodSi, uaxloes momavalSi ki eqsportis
SesaZlebloba SezRudulia saWiro gadamcemi sistemis infrastruqturis
naklebobisa da funqcionarebadi regionaluri energetikuli bazris
ararsebobis gamo. meore gansaxilveli sakiTxi, dakavSirebuli 1600mgvt
simZlavris atomur sadgurTan mdgomareobs mis potencialSi zegavlena
moaxdinos sistemis stabilurobaze da saimedoobaze. Tu aseTi sadguri
aSendeba, is daaxloebiT iqneba saqarTvelos mTliani dadgmuli simZlavris
35%. aseTi mZlavri erTeulis mwyobridan gamosvlisas, dairRveva
energosistemis stabiluroba. am mizeziT 1600mgvt atomuri sadguris
variantis ganxilva gamoiricxa Semdgom kvlevebSi. 600mgvt atomuri sadguris
variantic aseve gamoiricxa radganac is konkurentunariani ar aris mTeli
simZlavris faqtoris intervalSi (ix.naxazi 6).
importirebuli da adgilobrivi qvanaxSiris variantebis SedarebiT gamoCnda,
rom es orive varianti msgavsia, importirebul qvanaxSirs gaaCnia cota
upiratesoba ekonomikis TvalsazrisiT (ix. suraTi 6). garemoze zemoqmedebis
TavlsazrisiT, importirebul qvanaxSirs kvlav gaCnia cota upiratesoba,
radgan igi Cveulebriv Seicavs nakleb gogirds, nacars da mtvris minarevs;
agreTve, adilobriv qvanaxSirs gaaCnia uaryofiTi zegavlena mopovebisa da
transportirebis TvalsazrisiT. am mizezebisa da imis gamo, rom adgilobrivi
qvanaxSiris resursebi SezRudulia, gadawyda rom Semdgom analizSi ganxiluli
iqneboda mxolod importirebuli qvanaxSiris varianti (umciresi Rirebulebis
gegma da socialur-ekonomikuri kvleva). Tu adgilobrivi qvanaxSiris
Rirebuleba konkurentunariani gaxdeba importirebul naxSirTan mimarTebaSi,
eleqtrosadguris maxasiaTeblebi amiT mniSvnelovnad ar Seicvleba; Sesabamisad,
importirebuli qvanaxSiris ganxilvisas unda vigulisxmoT adgilobrivi
qvanaxSiris gamoyenebis SesaZleblobac. amgvarad, Tbosadgurebis variantebis
gadarCevis analizi gviCvenebs, rom bunebriv airze momuSave kombinirebuli
ciklis gazoturbina da importirebul qvanaxSirze momuSave sadgurebi
warmoadgens im or variants, romelTa Semdgomi detaluri ganxilva saWiroa.
energogeneraciis gazrdis dagegmva
umciresi Rirebulebis ganviTarebis gegma SemuSavebul iqna sxvadasxva
scenarebis SemTxvevaSi. pirveli sabazo SemuSavebuli scenari asaxavda yvelaze
savaraudo daSvebebs da energiaze moTxovnilebis prognozs. SemuSavebuli iqna
am scenaris ori variacia, erTi eleqtroenergiis SezRuduli importis
SemTxvevaSi, xolo meoreSi daSvebuli iyo eleqtroenergiis ufro meti
importi. am TavSi mocemulia energogeneraciis gazrdis dagegmvis Sedegebi,
rogorc sabazo, aseve alternatiuli scenarebis SemTxvevebSi.
:
XVIII
umciresi Rirebulebis ganviTarebis gegma SezRuduli importis SemTxvevaSi
(sabaziso varianti)
upirveles yovlisa SemuSavda sabaziso scenari, romlis Tanaxmad
eleqtroenergiis importi moTxovnilebis dasabalanseblad dasaSvebia 2010
wlamde. 2010 wlis Semdeg, adgilobrivi eleqtroenergia sakmarisia
moTxovnilebis dasakmayofileblad (amJamad ar arsebobs grZelvadiani aseTi
savaWro xelSekrulebebi mezobel qveynebTan). es aris yvelaze eqstremaluri
scenari.
am scenarSi gakeTebuli sxva daSvebebi moicavs:
bunebriv airze momuSave axali Tbosadgurebi mwyobrSi unda Cadges 2011
wels an mogvianebiT
bunebrivi airi xelmisawvdomi iqneba dRevandel fasSi da saWiro ar
iqneba damatebiTi milgayvanilobis aSeneba Tbosadgurebis
gazmomaragebisaTvis.
yvelaze pirveli axali hidrosadgurebi mwyobrSi unda Cadges 2013
wels
sabazo scenaris ZiriTadi Sedegebi mdgomareobs SemdegSi:
2021 wlisaTvis saqarTvelos sWirdeba 1684mgvt damatebiTi generaciis
simZlavre;
o 576mgvt axali Tbosadgurebidan, da
o 1108mgvt axali hidrosadgurebidan
umciresi Rirebulebi energoganviTarebis gegmebis damatebiTi daSvebebi:
dagegmvis periodia 2007 wlis 1 ianvridan 2021 wlis 31 dekembramde;
bunebrivi airis mowodeba SesaZlebeli iqneba ruseTidan fasiT $230/1000m3;ukrainis qvanaxSiris importi SesaZlebeli iqneba $56/tona fasad. ar igulisxmeva
investiciebi infrastuqturaze, rogoricaa porti da rkinigza:
yvela fasi dadgenilia 2007 wlis 1 ianvrisaTvis da ar moicavs inflacias;
analizi Catarda dolarebSi, laris gacvlis kursis 1$=1.67lari gamoyenebiT;
gamoyenebulia koeficienti 0.752 dolarsa da evros Soris.
nagulisxmevia 10% realuri diskontorebis zoma, diskontireba moxdenilia 2007
wlis 1 ianvriT.
generaciis sistemis gafarToebis gegmebi SemuSavebuli iqna sistemis saimedoobis
donis da eleqtromomaragebis gaTvaliswinebiT. armiwodebuli simZlavris an
datvirTvis dakargvis albaTobis misaReb donis mniSvnelobad CaTvlilia 1 dRe
weliwadSi. es qmnis sarezervo zRvrebs saboloo ganviTarebis gegmebSi;
am kvlevaSi 0.57$/kvtsT (Tbosadgurebze 10-jer ufro Zviri tarifi) iqna
gamoyenebuli rogorc miuwodebeli energiis tarifi.
eleqtoenergiis saqarTvelos farglebs gareT eqsportis saSualo fasad aRebulia
35 $/mgvtsT; igive tarifia aRebuli importis SemTxvevaSi.
:
XIX
dagegmilia eleqtroenergiis importi 30mgvt/4gvtsT – 2009 wels da
60mgvt/12gvtsT -2010 wels
energosistemis wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba (NPV) (axal sadgurebze
investiciebis, eqspluataciis miuwodebli energiis Rirebulebis
CaTvliT) 2007-2021 wlebSi aris $2,109 milioni8.
Tumca, wvimiani sezonis dros ver xdeba Warbi eleqtroenergiis
gamoyeneba. Tu moxdeba Warbi eleqtroenergiis eqsporti, potenciuri
Semosavlebis sidide iqneboda $245 milioni $35/mgvtsT tarifis
gaTvaliswinebiT.
umciresi Rirebulebis ganviTarebis gegma ganaxlebadi wyaroebisaTvis
(alternatiuli ganaxlebadi wyaroebi)
sabaziso scenaris alternatiul variantad ganixileba ganaxlebadi wyaroebi,
gansakuTrebiT mcire hidro da qaris sadgurebis proeqtebi. cxrilSi 10
mocemulia specifikuri proeqtebi, romelTa mTliani simZlavrea 495mgvt, da
romlebic Setanil iqnan energogeneraciis gazrdis programaSi.
cxrili 10. energogeneraciis gegma ganaxlebadi wyaroebiT (2011-2015)
ganaxlebadi wyaroebi mcire 10mgvt-mde
hesebi
mcire hesebi
10-50mgvt qaris sadgurebi
proeqtebis raodenoba
mocemul periodSi 10 5 1
mTliani simZlavre
mocemul periodSi 50 mgvt 125 mgvt 45 mgvt
proeqtebis ricxvi
weliwadSi 2 1 6 erTeuli
simZlavris nazrdi
weliwadSi 10 mgvt 25 mgvt 9 mgvt
sadguris SefasebiTi
faqtori 50 %h 45 % 35 %
kapitaluri danaxajebi 3000 $/kvt 2700 $/ kvt 1600 $/ kvt
meore faza: 2015-2021 wlebi
ganaxlebadi wyaroebi mcire 10mgvt-mde
hesebi
mcire hesebi
10-50mgvt qaris sadgurebi
proeqtebis raodenoba
mocemul periodSi 15 5 2
mTliani simZlavre
mocemul periodSi 75 mgvt 125 mgvt 75 mgvt
proeqtebis ricxvi
weliwadSi 3 1 10 erTeuli
simZlavris nazrdi
weliwadSi 15 mgvt 25 mgvt 15 mgvt
sadguris SefasebiTi
faqtori 50 % 45 % 35 %
kapitaluri danaxajebi 3000 $/kvt 2700 $/kvt 1600 $/kvt
8aRsaniSnavia, rom es aris xarjis NPV; ar moicavs xarjebis da Semosavlebis nakadebs
rogorc es sxva tipis analizebisTvisaa damaxasiaTebeli.
:
XX
wina scenaris msgavsi sxva daSvebebis gaTvaliswinebiT, kvlevis ZiriTadi
Sedegebi mdgomareobs SemdegSi:
saqarTvelos 2021 wlisaTvis sWirdeba 1542mgvt generaciis axali
simZlavreebi;
o 576mgvt axali Tbosadgurebisagan;
o 495mgvt ganaxlebadi wyaroebisagan; da
o 470mgvt axali hidrosadgurebisagan (faravani, tviSi da
namaxvani).
dagegmilia eleqtroenergiis importi 30mgvt/4gvtsT 2009 wels da
60mgvt/12gvsT 2010 wels.
energosistemis wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba (NPV) (axal sadgurebSi
Cadebuli investiciebis gaTvaliswinebiT, saeqspluatacio xarjebiT da
miuwodebeli energiis safasuris CaTvliT) 2007-2021 wlebSi aris
$2,224 milioni. es $115 milioniT metia sabazo scenarTan SedarebiT.
wina scenaris analogiurad, wvimiani sezonis dros ver xdeba Warbi
eleqtroenergiis gamoyeneba. Tu moxdeba Warbi eleqtroenergiis
eqsporti, potenciuri Semosavlebis sidide alternatiul scenarSi
iqneboda $274 milioni, $35/mgvtsT tarifis gaTvaliswinebiT. es aris
damatebiTi mtkicebuleba alternatiuli scenaris sasargeblod
(alternativa 2), romelic meti eleqtroenergis gayidvis saSualebas
iZleva.
umciresi Rirebulebis ganviTarebis gegma importis SemTxvevaSi (alternativa 2
- importis varianti)
am scenarSi eleqtroenergiis importi daSvebulia mTeli wlis manZilze.
wvimian sezonze (gazafxuli/zafxuli), roca saqarTvelos gaaCnia Warbi
eleqtroenergia, gakeTebulia daSveba, rom arsebobs am eleqtroenergiaze
moTxovnileba mezobel qveynebSi. mSral sezonze (zamTari), igulisxmeba rom
mezobel qveynebs gaaCniaT Warbi eleqtroenergia, rom miawodon saqarTvelos.
importi da eqsportic xorcieldeba tarifiT $35/mgvtsT.
sxva daSvebebi:
gadamcemi xazebis gaZliereba, rac ukve dagegmilia, SesaZleblobas
Seqmnis ganxorcieldes 500mgvt simZlavris importi da eqsporti. es
warmoadgenda kvlevis jgufis daskvnas, romelic gakeTda gadamcemi
xazebis dagegmili gaZlierebis gegmis detaluri ganxilvis Semdeg.
ar aris daSvebuli axali bunebriv airze momuSave Tbosadgurebis
mSenebloba
igulisxmeba, rom bunebrivi airi sakmarisia arsebuli
TbosadgurebisaTvis.
yvelaze pirveli axali hidrosadguri SeiZleba aSendes 2013 wels.
2-e alternatiuli scenaris Sedegebi Semdegia:
:
XXI
dagegmvis periodSi (2021 wlamde) 1,208mgvt generaciis axali
simZlavreebia saWiro (1,684mgvt simZlavresTan SedarebiT sabazo
scenarSi);
o samive wamoyenebuli hidrosadguri arCeul iqna umciresi
danaxarjebis gegmaSi: xudoni, faravani da namaxvani (tviSis da
JoneTis CaTvliT); da
o eleqtroenergiis saWiro importi: 30mgvt/197gvtsT 2009
wels, romelic gaizrdeba 500mgvt/2,231gvtsT-mde 2021 wels;
es namdvilad Seesabameba gadamcemi sistemis parametrebs da misi
gaZliereba saWiro ar aris.
eleqtroenergiis eqsportisagan miRebuli Semosavali Sefasebulia $163 milionad.
energo sistemis NPV (eqsportidan miRebuli Semosavlis gareSe) aris
$1,734milioni.
am scenars gaaCnia $375 milioniT ufro dabali NPV, vidre sabazo scenars, da $490 milioniT ufro dabali vidre ganaxlebadi wyaroebis I alternativas;
magram amave dros eqsportis potencialuri Semosavali Sesabamisad $82 milioniT da $111 milioniT naklebia 2-e alternatiuli scenarisaTvis (tarifi
$35/mgvtsT). 2-e alternatiuli scenari naklebad efuZneba importirebul
bunebriv airs.
sxva ganviTarebis alternativebi
imisaTvis, rom Sefasebuliyo daSvebuli aracalsaxobebis zegavlena, agreTve
sxva SesaZlo variantebi, romelTac SesaZloa miscemodaT upiratesoba
ganxilul scenarebTan SedarebiT, SemuSavebul iqna agreTve Semdegi
alternativebi:
importirebuli bunebrivi airis scenari (alternativa 3), romlis
Tanaxmad unda aSendes mxolo bunebriv airze momuSave Tbosadgurebi; ar
unda aSendes hidrosadgurebi;
xudonis hesi (alternativa 5); hidroproeqtebidan igegmeba mxolod
namaxvanis mSenebloba; danarCeni saWiro simZlavre miRebuli unda iqnas
axali gazze momuSave Tboleleqtrosadgurebidan.
importirebuli qvanaxSiri (alternativa 6) unda iqnas gamoyenebuli
yvela axal naxSirze momuSave TboeleqtrosadgurebSi, romlebic
aucilebelia eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis dasakmayofileblad.
maRali fasebi bunebriv airze (alternativa 7); yvela Semavali
parametric (garda bunebrivi airis fasisa) igivea rac sabaziso scenarSi.
dabali fasebi bunebriv airze (alternativa 8); yvela Semavali
parametric (garda bunebrivi airis fasisa) igivea rac sabaziso scenarSi.
eleqtroenergiaze maRali moTxovna eleqtroenergiis importis gareSe
(sabazo HDF); yvela Semavali parametri (garda eleqtroenergiaze
maRali moTxovnisa) igivea rac sabazo scenarSi.
:
XXII
eleqtroenergiaze maRali moTxovna eleqtroenergiis importiT
(alternativa 2 HDF); yvela Semavali parametri (garda
eleqtroenergiaze maRali moTxovnisa) igivea rac alternativa 2-Si.
eleqtroenergiaze dabali moTxovna eleqtroenergiis importis gareSe
(sabazo LDF); yvela Semavali parametri (garda eleqtroenergiaze
dabali moTxovnisa) igivea rac sabazo scenarSi.
eleqtroenergiaze dabali moTxovna eleqtroenergiis importiT
(alternativa 2 LDF); yvela Semavali parametri (garda
eleqtroenergiaze dabali moTxovnisa) igivea rac alternativa 2-Si.
cxrilSi 11 Sejamebulia mgrZnobiarobis analizis Sedegebi. am analizis
mTavari daskvnebi SeiZleba Camoyalibdes Semdegnairad:
Tu davuSvebT rom fasebi bunebriv airze darCeba dRevandel doneze da
ar aSendeba axali gazze momuSave sadgurebi, umciresi Rirebulebis
energiis ganviTarebis gegma moicavs samive hidrosadguris mSeneblobas:
xudoni, faravani da namaxvani (tviSis da JoneTis CaTvliT).
hidrosadgurebi aSendeba 2013-2015 wlebSi. am gegmas (alternativa 2 –
importis varianti) minimumamde dahyavs energosistemis NPV da mTliani
NPV eleqtroenergiis exportis Semosavlebis gaTvaliswinebiT.
scenari, romelsac gaaCnia alternativa 2-s Semdeg yvelaze dabali NPV
aris qvanaxSiris gamoyenebis varianti (alternativa 6 – mxolod
qvanaxSiri). Tumca, infrastruqturisaTvis saWiro investicia
(gansakuTrebiT portebis da potenciuri rkinigzebi) ar Sedis am
SefasebaSi. aseve ar Sefasebula garemoze zemoqmedeba, romelic gakeTda
qvemoT ganxiluli mraval-kriteriumiani analizis dros.
minimaluri investiis mqone alternativaa – alternativa 3 (mxolod
gazi), romelic efuZneba bunebriv airze momuSave sadgurebs. Tumca, mas
gaaCnia maRali saeqspluatacio xarjebi da maRal riskebTan aris
dakavSirebuli sawvavis fasisa da energo usafrTxoebis TvalsazrisiT.
faravnis hidrosadguris proeqti aris yvelaze efeqturi sxva
hidrosadgurebTan SedarebiT da amitom unda ganxorcieldes pirveli.
495mgvt simZlavris ganaxlebadi wyaroebis proeqtebis ganxorcieleba
2021 wlisaTvis ganapirobebs xarjebis NPV-is $86 milioniT gazrdas
(($1950 milioni nacvlad sabazo scenaris $1864 milionisa), romelSic
Sesulia eleqtroenergiis eqsportis Rirebuleba.
bunebriv airze fasebis cvlileba mniSvnelovan zegavlenas ver axdens
sadgurebis arCevaze, rogorc es Cans 7-e da 8-e alternativebis
Sedegebidan.
eleqtroenergiaze maRali moTxonilebis scenarSi xudonis sadguri unda
aSendes ufro adre (2015 wels nacvlad 2020 wlisa), vidre sabazo
moTxovnilebis scenarSi. amasTan erTad, Tu strategia gulisxmobs
mezobel qveynebTan eleqtroenergiis gacvlas, eleqtroenrgiaze maRali
moTxovnilebis gamo saWiroa an bunebriv airze momuSave sadgurebis
aSeneba an mezobel qveynebTan SemaerTebeli gadamcemi xazebis
:
XXIII
gamtarianobis gaumjobeseba, raTa SesaZlebeli iyos 500mgvt-ze meti
simZlavris gatareba.
dabali moTxovnilebis scenarSi, tviSi da namaxvanis sadgurebis
mSenebloba gadadebulia 2017 wlamde da xudonis mSenebloba arc ki
ganixileba dagegmvis periodSi. alternativa 2-s farglebSi ganviTarebis
gegmaSi Casmulia yvela hidrosadguri, rac gavZlevs yvela xarjis
umcires NPV-s mniSvnelobas.
sazogadod, yvela hidrosadguris mSenebloba, romlebic kvlevaSia mocemuli, yvelaze metad Rirebulia qveynisaTvis ekonomikuri umciresi danaxarjebis TvalsazrisiT. es Rirbuleba kidev ufro izrdeba, roca eleqtroenergiiT vaWroba mezobel qveynebTan realuri xdeba.
:
XXIV
cxrili 11. yvela gaanalizirebuli variantis Semajamebeli informacia
varianti
damatebuli
generaciis
simZlavre
(mgvt)
(2021
wlisaTvis)
energiis
potenciur
i eqsporti
(gvtsT)9
NPV(mil. $)10
investicia
(mil.$)
saeqspluata
cio xarjebi
(mil.$)
potenciuri
eqsportis
Semosavali
(mil.$)
sruli NPV (mil.$)11
arCeuli sadgurebis
mwyobrSi Cadgoma12
bazisuri moTxonileba energiaze (saSualo wliuri nazrdi – 3%)
sabazo –
SezRuduli
importi
1684 13441 2109 436 1673 245 1864CC: 2011, 2015, 2015, 2017, K : 2020 T/N/Z : 2013/2014/ P : 2013
alternativa
1 -
ganaxlebadi
1541 15799 2224 582 1642 274 1950CC: 2011, 2015, 2015, 2020, Renewables: 2011-2020 T/N : 2017/2018/ P : 2013
alternativa
2 - importi 1208 7245 1734 501 1233 163 1571
CC: K : 2013 T/N/Z : 2013/2014/2015 P : 2013
alternativa
3 – mxolod
gazi
864 10809 2156 261 1895 173 1983
CC: 2011,2013,2015,2015,2017,2021K : T/N/Z : / / P :
alternativa
4 – mxolod
xudonis hesi
1478 13951 2201 492 1709 259 1942CC: 2011,2015,2015,2017,2020K : 2013 T/N/Z : / / P : 2013
alternativa
5 – molod
namaxvanis
kaskadi
1290 13064 2132 458 1674 244 1888CC: 2011,2015,2015,2017,2020K : T/N/Z : 2013/2014/2015 P : 2013
alternativa
6 – mxolod
qvanaxSiri
824 7848 1990 376 1614 173 1817COAL: 2013,2015,2017 K : T/N/Z : / / P :
alternativa
7 – gazze
maRali fasi
($611/1000m3)
1784 18808 3965 653 3312 328 3637CC: 2011,2015,2016,2019 K : 2013 T/N/Z : 2013/2013/2020 P : 2013
alternativa
8 – gazze
dabali fasi
($147/1000m3)
1684 13441 1686 436 1250 245 1441CC: 2011,2015,2015,2017 K : 2020 T/N/Z : 2013/2014/ P : 2013
sabazo HDF SezRuduli
importi
2260 11107 2748 733 2015 212 2536
CC: 2011, 2011,2014,2015, 2016,2018,2019,2020 K : 2015 T/N/Z : 2013/2013/ P : 2013
alternativa
2- HDF - importi
1784 2423 2190 589 1601 64 2126CC: 2016,2017,2020,2021 K : 2013 T/N/Z : 2013/2014/2015 P : 2013
sabazo LDF SezRuduli
importi
1046 9890 1959 306 1653 199 1760CC: 2011, 2015,2015,2019 K : T/N/Z : 2017/2017/ P : 2013
alternativa
2- LDF - importi
1208 10682 1696 492 1204 213 1483CC: K : 2013 T/N/Z : 2014/2014/2015 P : 2013
9energiis eqsporti – hesebis zedmeti generacia, roelic SeiZleba eqsportirdes 2007-2021 wlebSi.
10xarjebis NPV
11xarjebis NPV gamoklebuli energiis eqsportis NPV
12 CC – komb.ciklis gazis turbina 150mgvt; K-xudoni hesi; T/N/Z – tviSi, namaxvani, JoneTi; P – faravnis hesi; COAL – naxSirze momuSave sadguri 300mgvt.
:
XXV
mravalkriteriumiani analizi
analizis bolo safexuri moicavs mraval kriteriums, rogorc raodenobrivs,
aseve xarisxobrivs da alternatiuli variantebis ranJirebas. yvela aspeqti –
teqnikuri, ekonomikuri, socialuri da strategiuli – CarTulia kvlevaSi.
yvela im faqtoris detaluri analizia Catarebuli, romlebic moxvda Semdeg
rva mTavar kriteriumSi:
1. energosistemis xarjebis NPV investiciebis CaTvliT, saeqspluatacio
xarjebi da aqtivebis salikvidacio Rirebuleba.
2. energosistemis saeqspluatacio da operirebis xarjebi;
3. eleqtroenergiis eqsportidan Semosavali;
4. klimatis cvlilebis zegavlena (warmoSobili naxSirorjangis
raodenoba);
5. energousafrTxoeba;
6. garemoze zemoqmedeba; da
7. socialuri zegavlena.
garemoze zemoqmedebis da socialuri kriteriumebi moicaven iseT faqtorebs,
rogoricaa:
mikro-klimatze gavlena
fauna
landSafti
soflis meurneoba
adgilis higienuri mdgomareoba
wylis xarisxi
mosaxleobis gadasaxleba da masTan dakavSirebuli anazRaureba
gzebis mimarTulebis cvlileba da droebiTi gzebis, xidebis da a.S. ageba
istoriuli, kulturuli da bunebrivi Zeglebi
rekreaciuli samuSaoebi
energetikis da komunikaciis infrastruqturis dizainis cvlileba
sanitaruli zomebi
adgilobrivi mosaxleobis janmrTeloba
rezervuariT gamowveuli seismuroba, da sxva
zogierTi zemoT moyvanili faqtori atarebs raodenobriv xasiaTs, xolo zogi
ara. araraodenobrivi faqtorebisaTvis, SemuSavebul iqna ganzomilebiTi
intervalebi da detaluri kvleva Catarda im mizniT rom mocemuli sidide
moxvedriliyo am winaswargansazRvrul intervalSi. magaliTad, SemoRebul iqna
socialuri zegavlenis intervali 1-dan 10-mde da yoveli scenarisaTvis
ganisazRvreboda konkretuli mniSvneloba iseTi zegavlenebis detaluri
analizis safuZvelze, rogoricaa im mosaxleobis da ojaxebis raodenoba,
romelTac mouwevT gadasaxleba, sasoflo-sameurneo daniSnulebis miwebi da
daculi jiSebis raodenoba, romelTac ganicades zegavlena. cxrilebSi 12 da
13 Sejamebulia sxvadasxva scenarebis Sefasebebi zemoTmoyvanili kriteriumebis
gaTvaliswinebiT.
:
XXVI
cxrili 12. alternatiuli energoganviTarebis scenarebis integrirebuli kvlevis Sejameba
kriteriumi
sabazo
limitirebuli
importi
alternat 1
ganaxlebadi
wyaroebi
alt. 2
importis
SemTxveva
alt. 3
mxolod
gazi
alt. 4
mxolod
xudonhesi
alt. 5
mxolod
namaxvanis
kaskadi
alt. 6
mxolod
qvanaxSiri
NPV (mil. $) 2109 2224 1734 2156 2201 2132 1990
oper. da
eqspl. xarj.
(mil. $)1673 1642 1233 1895 1709 1674 1614
el-energiis
SesaZlo
importidan
Semosavali
(mil. $)
245 274 163 173 259 244 173
CO2 gamoyofa
(1000t)20304 22671 9630 26675 21396 20490 45259
el-energiis
importimcire mcire
Zalian
didimcire mcire mcire mcire
energousafr
Txoebis
ranJireba
1-udablesi
8-umaRlesi
4.2 4.7 8 1 3.7 4.1 3
garemoze
zemoqmedeba
2- udablesi
7- umaRlesi
2.7 3.7 6 7 5.8 4.8 2
socialuri
zegavlena
2- udablesi
6- umaRlesi
3 4 3 6 4 5 2
kargi
dadebiTi
saSualo
cudi
uaryofiTi
:
XXVII
cxrili 13. sxvadasxva scenarebis kriteriumebis mniSvnelobebi
kriteriumebi
NPV oper. eqspl.
xarjebi
eleqtr.
importiCO2
energo
usafrTx.
garem.
zegavl
social
zegavl.
eqsportis
Semosavlebscenari
mil. $ mil. $ - 1000 t - - - mil. $
sabazo 2109 1673 0 20304 4.2 2.7 3 245
Aalt1 2224 1642 0 22671 4.7 3.7 4 274
Aalt2 1734 1233 1 9630 8 6 3 163
Aalt3 2156 1895 0 26675 1 7 6 173
Aalt4 2201 1709 0 21396 3.7 5.8 4 259
Aalt5 2132 1674 0 20490 4.1 4.8 5 243
Aalt6 1990 1614 0 45259 3 2 2 173
yvela zemoTmoyvanil kriteriums miesadaga wonis koeficienti (1-dan 3-mde)
imisda mixedviT, Tu ramednad mniSvnelovania mocemuli kriteriumi.
radganac kriteriumis mniSvnelovnobis xarisxis Sefaseba SeiZleba
subieqturi yofiliyo, TiToeuli kriteriumis mniSvnelobis xarisxSi
cvlilebis (da masasadame koeficientebis cvlilebis) asaxvisaTvis Catarda
mgrZnobiarobis analizi. pirvel da Zalian mniSvelovan ranJirebis
variants warmoadgens SemTxveva, roca yvela kriteriums Tanabari
mniSvneloba aqvs – erTidaigive wona aqvT. aseTi ranJireba aRniSnulia R1simboloTi da Sedegebi mocemulia cxrilSi 8.31. mogvianebiT, ranJireba
Catarda sxvadasxva woniTi koeficientebisaTvis. zogierTi ranJirebisas
didi mniSvneloba mieniWa ekologiur kriteriums (R2 da R4). specialuri
mniSvneloba mieca agreTve CO2 –is gamoyofas, rogorc saTburis gazs
(ranJirebis procesSi amas hqvia “kiotos varianti”). zogierTi ranJirebisas,
didi mniSvneloba mieniWa fuls (R3 ranJireba). R5 ranJirebisas ufro didi
mniSvneloba eniWeba sistemis energousafrTxoebas, roca gaurkvevlobaa
energosawvavis bazarze, roca garTulebulia bunebrivi airisa da
qvanaxSiris importi da esporti. cxril 14-Si mocemulia scenarebis
ranJirebis sia (marjvena sveti) mocemuli kriteriumis sxvadaxva woniTi
koeficientebis SemTxvevaSi. Ai aRniSnavs scenars - alternativa i;magaliTad, A5 warmoadgens scenars alternativa 5. gamonakliss warmoadgens
sabazo SemTxveva, romelic aRniSnulia simboloTi B.
cxrili 14: sxvadasxva scenarebis mravalkriteriumiani ranJirebis Sedegebi
kriteriumis Sewonili koeficientebi
rangi NPV
saop.
da
eqspl.
xarji
eleqt
importiCO2
energo
usafrTx
oeba
garemoz
e
zegavle
na
social
zegavle
na
export
Semosava
li
ranJirebis sia
R1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 A5B,A4,A2,A1,A3,A6
R2 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 A2,A5,A4 A1,A3,B,A6
R3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 A5,BA4,A2,A1,A6,A3
:
XXVIII
R4 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 1 A5,A4,A2 A1,A3,B,A6
R5 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 A5,A4,A2 A1,B,A3,A6
mravalkriteriumiani analizis ZiriTadi daskvnebi mdgomareobs SemdegSi:
scenarebi, romlebic rangis mixedviT pirvel oTx adgilze imyofebian
Semdegia: sabazo varianti (SezRuduli importi), alternativa 2
(eleqtoenergiis importi; samive hidrosadguri; arcerTi gazze
momuSave Tbosadguri), alternativa 4 (xudonis da faravanis hesebi,
aseve bunebriv airze momuSave Tbosadgurebi) da alternativa 6
(namaxvanis da faravanis hesebi, aseve bunebriv airze momuSave
Tbosadgurebi). aalternativa 2-s da alternativa 5-s gaaCniaT
umaRlesi ranJireba am oTxi scenaridan.
yvela SemoTavazebuli hidrosadgurebis mSenebloba 2013-2015 wlebSi
da eleqtroenergiis yidva/gayidvis gazrda mezobel qveynebTan
(alternativa 2) yvelaze kargi variantia ekonomikuri da CO2
TvalsazrisiT. agreTve, importirebuli gazis raodenoba sxva
scenarebTan SedarebiT gacilebiT mcirea alternativa 2-is
SemTxvevaSi; Sesabamisad sistemis energousafrTxoeba gazrdilia,
magram didia damokidebuleba eleqtorenergiiT vaWrobaze.
Tu eleqtroenergiiT vaWrobas adgili ar aqvs, yvelaze didi qulebi
eqneba alternativa 5-s.
xudonhesis mSenebloba (alternativa 4) ranJirebis sistemaSi ufro
dabla dgas vidre alternativa 5, ZiriTadad ekonomikuri da CO2 kriteriumebis gamo.
alternativa 3-is (gazze momuSave Tbosadgurebi da arcerTi
hidrosadguri) da alternativa 6-is scenarebis (yvela axali
sadguri naxSirze momuSavea) ranJireba yvelaze dabalia.
ganaxlebadi resursebis gamoyenebis Sesabamis adeqvatur doneze
darwmunebiT Sefaseba SeuZlebelia informaciis naklebobis gamo;
saWiroa adgilebze Catardes winaswari kvleva da ganaxlebadi
wyaroebis ufro detaluri ganxilva. alternatiuli scenarebis,
romelic moicavs mcire hesebs da qaris sadgurebs (44mgvt
weliwadSi 2015 wlamde periodSi da 55mgvt weliwdSi 2015-2021
wlebSi) ganxorcielebisaTvis saWiroa samTavrobo daxmareba. aseve,
naxulisxmev donemde ganaxlebadi variantebis ganxorcieleba mxolod
gadaswevs didi hidrosadgurebis proeqtebis saWiroebas.
daskvnebi
am kvlevaSi Catarebuli mravalkriteriumiani analizi migviTiTebs, rom didi
hidrosadgurebis mSenebloba (xudoni, faravani da namaxvani (tviSisa da
JoneTis CaTvliT) mniSvnelovania saqarTvelosaTvis. aSendeba 2 hisdrosadguri
Tu 3 hidrosadguri – es damokidebulia qveynis survilze damokidebuli iyos
Tu ara nawilobriv misi energogeneracia importirebul gazze
:
XXIX
(energousafrTxoebis gaTvaliswinebiT) an gazardos eleqtroenergiiT vaWroba
mezobel qveynebTan. eleqtroenergiiT sezonuri vaWroba zrdis hidroenergiis
ekonomikur mimzidvelobas da Sedegad unda Seamciros eleqtroenergiis
Rirebuleba. winaswar kvlevaze dayrdnobiT, gadacemis sistemis dagegmili
gafarToeba (ix. qvemoT) adeqvaturi Cans gansaxilvel periodSi dagegmili
vaWrobisaTvis. Tumca, rekomendirebulia Catardes qveynis Sida da mezobel
qveynebTan damakavSirebeli gadamcemi xazebis ufro detaluri gamokvleva.
Box: saqarTvelos energo sistema dakavSirebulia ruseTTan 500 kv “kavkasionis” xaziT da 220kv “salxinos” xaziT, TurqeTTan 220kv xaziT “aWara”, somxeTTan – 220kv xaziT
“alaverdi” da azerbaijanTan – 330kv xaziT “gardabani”.
saqarTvelos gadamcemi sistemis regionaluri urTierTkavSiri
momavali ganviTareba isaxeba or fazad:
faza 1. saqarTvelosa da somxeTis dakavSireba 500/400kv xaziT, minimaluri simZlavriT
350mgvt (2010 wlamde)
faza 2. saqarTvelo/ruseTis 500kv xazis dakavSireba TurqeTis sistemasTan borCkas
400kv qvesadgurTan, simZlavre 500mgvt; meore 500kv gadamcemi xazis mSenebloba
engursa da gardabans Soris (2015 wlamde)
“SeniSvna” Tu angariSs Sav-TeTrad uyurebT, yuradReba miaqcieT, rom dagegmili 400kv xazi gadis
qsanis samxreTiT, razdanis samxreTiT da aRmosavleTiT, da axalcixis samxreT-
dasavleTiT. sxva wertilovani xazebi warmoadgens 500kv xazebs.
:
XXX
calkeuli proeqtebis Sesaxeb: faravani hesis proeqti yvelaze efeqturi proeqtia
Rirebulebis TvalsazrisiT sxva hidrosadgurebis proeqtebTan SedarebiT da unda
ganxorcieldes upirveles yovlisa (gegmis mixedviT unda amuSavdes 2013 wels).
saerTo Sefaseba miuTiTebs, rom namaxvanis proeqti meorea rangiT, xolo mesameze
modis xudoni.
Tu moTxovnileba eleqtroenergiaze meti iqneba vidre es prognozirebulia
(sabaziso moTxovnilebis prognozi), saWiro gaxdeba xudonis proeqtis ufro adre
ganxorcieleba (2015 wels 2020-is nacvlad). aseve, gazrdili moTxovnebis
dasakmayofileblad saWiro iqneba axali bunebriv airze momuSave sadgurebi an
mezobel qveynebTan damakavSirebeli gadamcemi xazebis simZlavreebis kidev ufro
gazrda, raTa gamtarisunarianoba gaxdes 500mgvt-ze meti.
eleqtroenergiaze dabali moTxovnilebis scenarSi, tviSis da namaxvanis hesebis
proeqtebis ganxorcieleba unda gadaidos 2017 wlamde, xolo xudonis proeqti ar
unda ganxorcieldes ganxilul dagegmvis periodSi.
kvlevis procesSi, warmoiSva mravali rekomendacia damatebiTi mokvlevisa da
monacemTa Segrovebis mimarTulebiT:
ganaxlebadi wyaroebis proeqtebi, gansakuTrebiT mcire hidrosadgurebis
proeqtebi, iolad ganxorcielebadi unda iyos, radgan maT gaaCniaT
minimaluri gavlena garemoze da saWiroeben nakleb investiciebs. Tumca
saWiroa kvlevebis Catareba adgilze da am proeqtebis ufro detaluri
Seswavla, proeqtis ganxorcielebis Sesaxeb saboloo gadawyvetilebis
miRebamde.
saWiroa regionaluri kvlevis Catareba, raTa ufro detalurad iqnas
gamokvleuli rogorc eleqtroenergiaze regionaluri moTxovnileba da
miwodebis SesaZleblobani, aseve gadacemis sistemebis adeqvatiuroba
eleqtroenergiis gazrdili vaWrobis SemTxvevaSi, rac sasargeblo iqneba
regionisaTvis.
SemoTavazebuli proeqtebi didia da moiTxovs mniSvnelovan teqnikuri da finansuri
resursebis mobilizacias, raTa ganxorcieleba moxdes drois SedarebiT mokle
periodSi es warmoadgens saqarTvelos energetikis ganviTarebis programis did
amocanas.
:
1
1. Sesavali
msoflio banki wamoiwyo es kvleva saTauriT: “saqarTvelo: energoseqtoris
ganviTarebis strategiuli garemosdacviTi kvleva” da moiwvia samxreT-aRmosavleT
evropis sakonsultacio organizacia (SEEC) gamokvlevis Casatareblad. kontraqti
gaformda 2007 wlis dasawyisSi.
kvleva organizebuli iyo Semdegi amocanebis mixedviT, romlebiT Sevidnen
davalebis pirobebSi:
o amocana 1: eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis prognozi
o amocana 2: eleqtroenergiis warmoeba arsebul sadgurebze
o amocana 3: energiis gadacema
o amocana 4: energiis gamomuSaveba axal sadgurebze
o amocana 5: energiis importi da eqsporti
o amocana 6: umciresi Rirebulebis energogeneraciis gazrdis gegmis SemuSaveba
o amocana 7: garemoze zemoqmedebis da socialuri zegavlenis kvlevis
winaswari etapis mimoxilva
o amocana 8: scenarebis morgeba kvlevis SedegebTan (ESI Findings) o amocana 9: riskebis Sefaseba
konsultants esmis, rom es analizi unda Catardes intergirebuli saxiT da
mxedvelobaSi iqnas miRebuli ekonomikuri, garemosdacviTi, socialuri da
strategiuli aspeqtebi.
strategiuli garemoze zemoqmedebis Sefaseba warmoadgens instruments, romelic
xels uwyobs energoseqtoris ganviTarebis Sesaxeb gadawyvetilebis miRebas. aseTma
kvlevam saSualeba unda misces xelisuflebas da dainteresebul mxareebs Seafason
TiToeuli generaciis variantis dadebiTi da uaryofiTi mxareebi da SeimuSaon
strategia rogorc umciresi Rirebulebis generaciis gazrdis gegmis
gaTvaliswinebiT (mkacrad ekonomikaze damyarebuli), aseve garemoze zemoqmedebis da
socialuri zegavlenis mxedvelobaSi miRebis safuZvelze. am droisaTvis,
xelisuflebas aqvs kerZo interesi - Catarebul iqnas garemoze zemoqmedebis
strategiuli kvleva, raTa gairkves wamoyenebuli xudonis hidroporeqti
(winaswari xarjTaRricxva, garemoze da socialuri zemoqmedebis aspeqtebi,
wamodgenili sxva kvlevidan) Tavsdeba Tu ara energogeneraciis gazrdis gegmaSi,
raTa gamoiyos resursebi sruli gamokvlevis Casatareblad da garemosdacviTi da
socialuri aspeqtebis Sesafaseblad.
garemoze zemoqmedebis strategiuli Seswavlis dokumenti aRwers im samuSaoebs,
romelic iqna gaweuli saqarTvelos energosistemis generaciisaTvis, moicavs im,
garemoze zemoqmedebis da socialuri aspeqtebis kvlevas da maTi wonebis
ganawilebas, romelic Tan axlavs axali sadgurebis mSeneblobas. am sadgurebis
:
2
mSenebloba unda iyos umciresi Rirebulebis generaciis gazrdis gegmis nawili.
energiis Senaxvisa da moTxovnilebis marTvis zomebi agreTve mniSvnelovan gavlenas
axdenen mTlian energomoTxovnilobaze. upirveles yovlisa, mTavari mizania
energogeneraciaSi investiciebis detaluri prioritetebis siis dadgena (da
Sesabamisi eleqtroinfrastruqtura) ganviTrebis periodis Semdgomi 15 wlis
manZilze. umciresi Rirebulebis generaciis gazrdis gegmis SemuSavebis analizis
paralelurad, konsultantma Caatara generaciis gazrdis sxvadasxva scenarebis
garemoze zemoqmedebis da socialuri zegavlenebis rTuli mimoxilva. es
mimoxilva da Catarebuli kvleva warmoadgenda safuZvels didi hidrosadgurebis
zogadi ranJirebisaTvis (xudonis CaTvliT) da generaciis sxva kandidatebi iqna
wamoyenebuli generaciis gazrdis scenarebis farglebSi.
Sesabamisi monacemTa bazis SemuSavebis procesSi, romelic Seicavs saqarTvelos
energosistemis da misi ganviTarebis variantebis Sesaxeb yvela saWiro Semaval
monacems, konsultanti agrovebda
mniSvnelovan informacias da
mniSvnelovani wamoWrili sakiTxebis
ganxilvas eweoda Sesabamisi
institutebisa da organizaciebis
wamomadgenlebTan monacemTa
Semgrovebeli misiis saqarTveloSi
yofnis dros 2007 wlis maisSi.
monacemTa Semgrovebeli misiis Semdgom
periodSi, Sesabamisi institutebisa da
organizaciebis wrmomadgenlebma
gaagzavnes damatebiTi monacemebi,
romlebic saWiro iyo dagegmvis
analizisaTvis. Tumca, am proeqtis sawyisi fazis ganmavlobaSi, konsultantma ver
SeZlo moepovebina yvela sasurveli Semavali monacemi da am faqtis gamo
konsultantma SeimuSava saTanado winadadebebi ararsebuli monacemebis misaRebi
mniSvnelobebis Sesaxeb, mis pirad gamocdilebaze, arsebul monacemebze da
saerTaSoriso literaturaze dayrdnobiT. amasTan erTad, monacemTa Segrovebis
fazaSi mopovebuli monacemebi gaanalizda da gadamowmda, Seecvala formati da
Senaxul iqna sistemis sawyis monacemTa bazaSi, romelic warmoadgens mniSvnelovan
bazas yoveli realuri momavali sistemuri kvlevisaTvis saqarTvelos
energosistemaSi.
1.1. kvlevis miznebi da samuSaoTa moculoba
energoseqtoris ganviTarebasTan dakavSirebuli SesaZleblobebisa da riskebis
gaTvaliswinebiT konsultantma moamzada saqarTveloSi energosistemis ganviTarebis
garemosdacviTi strategiuri Sefaseba, raTa daedginaT potenciuri investiciebisa
da RonisZiebaTa “upiratesobebi” (“dakavebuli adgilis” azriT) generaciis gazrdis
grZelvadian gegmaSi, ekonomikuri, garemosdacviTi, socialuri da strategiuli aspeqtebis
gaTvaliswinebiT. am procesSi mTavar sakiTxs warmoadgenda xudonis hidrosadguris
wamoyenebuli proeqtis upiratesobis gansazRvra sxva proeqtebTan mimarTebaSi. sxvadasxva
reportSi konsultanti warmoadgens
sabazo teqnilur-ekoomikur monacemebs,
mimoixilavs da ikvlevs didi
hidrosadgurebis, naxSirsa da gazze
momuSave Tbosadgurebis da ganaxlebadi
wyaroebis garemosdacviT da socialur
aspeqtebs. aseve mohyavs Sedegebi
generaciis sistemis umciresi
Rirebulebis gegmebis da sxvadasxva
alternativebis ranJirebis Sesaxeb
saerTo ekonomikuri, garemosdacviTi da
socialuri aspeqtebis gaTvaliswinebiT.
:
3
qvemoTmoyvanil daSvebebis gaTvaliwinebiT kvlevis Sedegad gamoikveTa momavali generaciis
simZlavreebis mwyobrSi Cadgomis potenciuri dro, zoma da mdebareoba Semdgomi 15 wlis
(2007-2021) ganmavlobaSi; amave dros Sefasda Tu ramdenad Seesabameba generaciaSi
sainvesticio programis moTxovnebs gadacemis sistemis gafarToebis arsebuli gegmebi.
kvleva agreTve asaxavs garemosdacviT da socialuri aspeqtebis kumulatiur zegavlenas
energogeneraciis simZlavris gazrdisaTvis saWiro mTlian axal investiciebze 2021 wlis
CaTvliT gansaxorcielebel sxvadaxva scenarebSi, romlebSic ekonomikuri, garemosdacviTi
da socialuri aspeqtebi gansazRvraven prioritetebis dadgenis kriteriumebs.
mTavrobam ganaxorciela 2006-2015 periodis eleqtroenergiis miwodebisa da
moTxovnilebis Seswavla. garda amisa, sistemis gafarToebis gegmebi fokusirebas axdenen
gadamcemi qselis ganviTarebaze. im mizniT, rom ekonomiurad gamoeyenebina sakuTari
resursebi, konsultantma CaTvala, rom es samuSaoebi ukve Catarebulia; Tumca, man adre
Catarebuli samuSaoebis Sedegebi gamoiyena misi analizis Semdgomi ganviTarebisaTvis da
daadgina rom es Catarebuli samuSaoebi adeqvaturia da sasargeblo.
strategiuli kvelevis Catareba ganapiroba xudonis hidrosadguris proeqtis
dagegmilma kvlevam. strategiuli klevis detalurobis done, unda yofiliyo
iseTi, rom mas SeZleboda moewodebina saWiro realuri infomacia, romlis
safuZvelze saqarTvelos mTavroba miiRebda gadawyvetilebas gaegrZelebina sxva
sakonsultacio kvlevebi xudonze da gadarCevis fazidan gadasuliyo detalur
kvlevaze da garemosdacviTi da socialuri aspeqtebis Seswavlaze; aqedan
gamomdinare mieRo saWiro mxardaWera, anu sxvanairad mieRo adawyvetileba
ganexorcielebina xudonis dagegmili proeqti.
aseve mniSvnelovania upiratesobebis ranJireba im didi hidrosadgurebis
SezRuduli raodenobisa, romelTagan TiToeuls SeuZlia gamoimuSaos 400gvtsT an
meti weliwadSi. rogorc es samTavrobo dokumentebSia mocemuli, aseT sadgurebs
warmoadgenen: namaxvani (910gvtsT), faravani (440gvtsT), tviSi (400gvtsT),
romlebic agreTve CarTulia kumulatiuri garemosdacviTi da socialuri
aspeqtebis kvlevaSi, rac saWiroa energomomaragebis sruli portfolios
Sesaqmnelad sxvadasxva scenarebSi.
ori ZiriTadi Sedegi, gamomdinare strategiuli kvlevidan:
generaciis sistemis ganviTarebis umciresi Rirebulebis gegma, romelic
abalansebs prognozirebuli moTxovnilebis mowodebis saimedoobas da
sistemis ekonomikur grZelvadian ganviTarebas: da
ekonomikuri, garmosdacviTi da socialuri aspeqtebis gaTvaliswinebiT
ganviTarebis sxvadasxva variantebis ganxorcielebis rigobrivi CamonaTvalis
(upiratesobebis) midgomis SemoReba.
es gamokvleva dagegmvis pirvel etapze, romelic aerTianebs eleqtoenergetikis
seqtoris orive mxares - moTxovnilebas da miwodebas, ikvlevs damatebiTi axali
generaciis saWiroebis dones. analizi Seesabameba idealur SemTxvevas, romlis
drosac ar arsebobs SezRudvebi gadacemaSi an sistemis sxva operirebaSi, romlebic
dabrkolebas Seuqmnidnen optimaluri generaciis sistemas moTxovnilebis Sesabamisi
eleqtroenergiis dispeCirebaSi. aseTi umciresi Rirebulebis generaciis sistemis
:
4
sainvesticio gadawyvetilebani damyarebulia sawvavis fasze, operirebisa da
kapitalur danaxarjebze.
meore etapze gamokvlevaSi mocemulia mizanSewonili energosadgurebis mSeneblobiT
gamowveuli garemosdacviTi da socialuri zegavlenebis mimoxilva da Sefaseba;
ekonomikuri, garemosdacviTi da socialuri aspeqtebis safuZvelze Sedgenilia
saukeTeso alternativebis (scenarebis) ranJirebis sia.
kvlevis angariSi mocemulia mraval nawilSi da moicavs Semdegs Tavebs:
Tavi 1. Sesavali
am TavSi mocemulia ZiriTadi ideebi da mizezebi, ramac gamoiwvia
kvlevis Catareba da agreTve mocemulia kvlevis analizis ZiriTadi
miznebi.
Tavi 2. midgoma da meTodologia
am TavSi aRwerilia midgoma da analizisaTvis gamoyenebuli
meTodologia, romelsac mivyavarT generaciis gazrdis umciresi
Rirebulebis gegmasTan, romelic damatebiT iqna Sefasebuli
garemosdacviTi da socialuri aspeqtebis gaTvaliswinebiT
mravalkriteriumiani ranJirebis sistemiT.
Tavi 3. dRevandeli mdgomareoba saqarTveloSi
es nawili mogvawvdis ZiriTad informacias bunebrivi maxasiaTeblebis,
garemosdacviTi da socialuri standartebis arsebuli iuridiuli
bazis da aseve saqarTvelos energosistemis mimdinare statusis
Sesaxeb, misi teqnikuri maxasiaTeblebisa da agreTve arsebuli
Tbosadgurebisa da hidrosadgurebis garemosdacviTi da socialuri
aspeqtebis Sesaxeb.
Tavi 4. eleqtroenergiaze da energiaze momavali moTxovnileba
es Tavi moicavs bolo periodSi eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis
cvlilebis kritikul mimoxilvas, aseve ekonomikuri da samrewvelo
ganviTarebis mniSvnelovani indikatorebis cvlilebas da dRevandel
mTlian energomoxmarebas, rogorc baziss eleqtroenergiaze momavali
moTxovnilebis Sesafaseblad.
Tavi 5. energogeneraciis axali variantebi
am TavSi mocemulia Tbo da hidrosadgurebis kandidatebis ZiriTadi
maxasiaTeblebi da Rirebuleba. yoveli gaanalizirebuli kandidati
hesisTvis warmodgenilia teqnikuri gadawyveta detaluri
raodenobebis da sruli sainvesticio xarjebis CaTvliT.
am TavSi agreTve mocemulia kandidati hidro da Tbosadgurebis
Sesaxeb arsebuli dokumentaciis, kvlevebis da informaciis
kritikuli analizi; garemosdacviTi da socialuri aspeqtebis
TvalsazrisiT gaanalizirebulia alternativebis ganviTareba
:
5
(xudonhesi, faravanhesi, namaxvanis kaskadi, kombinirebuli ciklis
gazoturbina, qvanaxSirze momuSave sadgurebi).
mocemulia informacia ganaxlebadi wyaroebis potenciur rolze,
rogorc axal energo matareblebze.
Tavi 6. generaciis ganviTarebis alternativebi
am TavSi mocemulia generaciis gazrdis gegmis analizis yvela Sedegi,
romlebic mocemulia cxrilebisa da diagramebis saxiT, saTanado
komentarebTan da daskvnebTan erTad.
Tavi 7. gadamcemi xazebis ganviTarebis gegmebi
am TavSi kritikuladaa ganxiluli cota xnis win dasrulebuli
kvleva gadacemis qselis momavali ganviTarebis gegmis Sesaxeb;
mocemulia am TavSi gaanalizirebuli generaciis ganviTarebis
alterntivebis SemoTavazebuli gadawyvetilebebis komentarebi da
Sefasebebi.
Tavi 8. alternatiuli scenarebis integrirebuli Sefaseba
am TavSi mocemulia im kriteriumebis CamonaTvali, romelic
gamoyenebul iqna ganviTarebis sxvadasxva alternativebis
mravalkriteriumiani ranJirebisas, ekonomikuri, garemosdacviTi da
socialuri apeqtebis gaTvaliswinebiT. masSi agreTve mocemulia
ranJirebis ZiriTadi Sedegebi Sesabamisi komentarebiTa da daskvnebiT.
Tavi 9. riskebis Sefaseba
am TavSi aRwerilia is riskebi, ramac SeiZleba zegavlena moaxdinos
generaciis momavali ganviTarebis gegmaze; SemoTavazebulia zomebi,
romlebmac unda mogvces cvlilebebis monitoringisa da sxvadasxva
zegavlenis Serbilebis saSualeba.
Tavi 10. daskvnebi
am TavSi mocemulia ZiriTadi daskvnebi.
:
6
2. midgoma da meTodologia
kvlevis miznidan gamomdinare, zogadi midgoma mdgomareobda ori mTavari aspeqtis
ganxilvaSi:
1. saqarTvelos energosistemisaTvis Camoyalibebuliyo generaciis ganviTarebis
umciresi Rirebulebis gegma, romlic moicavda periods - 2007-2021 wlebi.
2. kumulatiuri garemosdacviTi da soacialuri zegavlenebis Sefasebis
SemuSaveba 2021 wlamde energogeneraciaSi gansaxorcielebel axal
investiciebze, ekonomikuri, garemosdacviTi da socialuri upiratesobebis,
rogorc prioritetebis, kriteriumebis gamoyenebiT.
saqarTvelos energosistemis generaciis ganviTarebis umciresi Rirebulebis gegmis
SesamuSaveblad gamoyenebuli es midgoma, umciresi uaryofiTi garemosdacviTi da
socialuri zegavlenebis moTxovniT, aRwerilia garemosdacviT strategiuli
kvlevaSi.
saqarTveloSi
arsebuli
situaciis
mimoxilva
energiaze
moTxovnileba
(moTxovna,
prognozi)
energogeneraciis
variantebi
variantebis
gadarCeva
generaciis ganviTarebis
alternativebis gansazRvra
kumulatiuri zegavlenis
Sefaseba alternatiul
variantebze
riskebis
Sefaseba
saqarTveloSo energo-
ganviTarebis konkretuli
alternativebi
:
7
naxazi 2-1. strategiuli kvlevaSi gamoyenebuli midgoma
es midgoma moicavs Semdegs:
mimdinare situaciis mimoxilva saqarTveloSi – es gamokvleva mniSvnelovani
iyo saqarTvelos energosistemaSi arsebuli situaciis aRsaqmelad da aseve
saqarTvelos bunebrivi maxasiaTeblebis gansazRvrisaTvis; energogeneraciis
da garmosdacvis seqtoris sakanonmdeblo da maregulirebeli bazis
dasadgenad, romelic unda xels uwyobdes am kvlevis miznebs;
energosistemis moTxovnilebaTa Seswavla – romelime variantis
ganxorcielebamde, mniSvnelovani iyo Catarebuliyo eleqtroenergetikuli
seqtoris saWiroebaTa Seswavla;
variantebis aRwera – kvlevis erTerT pirvel nabijs warmoadgenda
dagvekonkretebina energogeneraciis ganviTarebis variantebi, romlebic
SesaZlebelia ganxorcieldes saqarTveloSi;
variantebis gadarCeva – energosistemis ganviTarebis identificirebuli
variantebis sruli siidan gamoiricxnen arasaTanado an miuRebeli variantebi.
es Tavdapirvelad gakeTda teqnikur safuZvelze dayrdnobiT;
generaciis ganviTarebis alternativebis ganmarteba – arsebobs
energogeneraciis ganviTarebis variantebis dajgufebis mravali gza, rom
dakmayofildes saqarTvelos moTxovnileba eleqtroenergiaze. ganxorcielda
im alternativebis erTobliobis identifikacia, romlebic Seesatyviseba
energiaze moTxovnilebas saWiro saimedoobis da sxvadasxva Rirebulebis
gaTvaliswinebiT;
ganviTarebis alternativebis kumulatiuri zegavlenis Seswavla –
energoganviTarebis alternativebis ganxorcieleba gavlenas moaxdens
socialur da fizikur garemoze da es iqna mxedvelobaSi miRebuli. saWiro
gaxda ganxiluliyo da gamokvleliyo sxvadasxva variantebis kombinirebuli
zegavlena ganviTarebis alternativebis SigniT;
alternativebis riskebis Sefaseba – es kvleva gansazRvravs riskebs,
romlebmac SesaZloa gavlena iqonios generaciis ganviTarebis momaval
gegmaze da zomebs, romlebsac unda SeZlon cvlilebaTa monitoringi da
sxvadasxva zegavlenis Serbileba.
rekomendaciebi saqarTvelos energoganviTarebis damaxasiaTebeli
alternativebis Sesaxeb – es warmoadgens energoganviTarebis variantebis
garkveuli TanmimdevrobiT da droSi ganxorcielebis gegmas, raTa moxdes
energiaze moTxovnilebis Sesatyvisoba im resursebis gamoyenebiT, romlebic
xelmisawvdomia socialuri da garemosdacviTi TvalsazrisiT.
ZiriTadi principebi romlebic daculi iyo am proeqtis ganxorcielebisas
mdgomareobs SemdegSi:
proeqtis jgufi eyrdnoboda arsebul informacias da iyenebda jgufis
wevrebis farTo gamocdilebas arsebuli monacemebis dasadastureblad an maT
saTanadod modifikaciisaTvis. sadac monacemebi ar arsebobda, proeqtis
jgufi iyenebda miaxloebul da zogad monacemebs, mizanSewonili Sefasebebis
misaRebad.
:
8
ZiriTadi hidrosadgurebis adgilebis monaxuleba mTavari elementi iyo
xelmisawvdomi informaciis marTebulobisa da potenciuri garemosdacviTi
da socialuri zegavlenis gansazRvrisaTvis.
gamoyenebul iqna energosistemis modelirebis Tanamedrove instrumentebi
(WASP IV) , romelic farTodaa miRebuli mTel msoflioSi energosistemis
analizisaTvis. garda amisa, imisaTvis rom Catarebuliyo energiis miwodebis
saukeTeso scenarebis (alternativebis) ranJirebis siis analizi ekonomikuri,
garemosdacviTi da socialuri aspeqtebis TvlsazrisiT, WASP IV-s Tan
erTvoda cxrilebis doneze da sxva programuli instrumentebis farglebSi
Catarebuli analizi,
ramdenadac es SesaZlebeli iyo, kvlevis analizi tardeboda, rogorc
msoflio bankis warmomadgenlebTan, aseve saqarTvelos energetikis da
garemosdacvis saministroebis warmomadgenlebTan mWido TanamSromlobis
gziT.
Tavdapirveli angariSis momzadebis periodSi, mniSvnelovani Zalisxmeva daixarja im
arsebuli monacemebis analizze, romelic saWiro iyo momavali eleqtrobalansisa
da generaciis gafarToebis umciresi Rirebulebis gegmebis Sesaqmnelad; agreTve
SemoTavazebuli didi hidrosadgurebis mSeneblobis garemosdacviTi da socialuri
zegavlenebis Sefasebaze. saqarTveloSi monacemTa Segrovebis misiis dawyebamde,
konsultantma moamzada detaluri kiTxvari, romelic unda gamoyenebuliyo misiis
dasaxmareblad da unda Sevsebuliyo Tavdapirvelad xelmisawvdomi monacemebis
safuZvelze.
analizi unda dayrdnoboda arsebul monacemebs. es niSnavda konsultantis mier
SerCeuli hidrosadguris aSenebis adgilebis SezRuduli raodenobis vizitebs.
monacemTa Segrovebis misiis mizani iyo arsebuli monacemebis Segroveba (proeqtis
angariSi, socio-ekonomikuri monacemebi, garemosdacviTi monacemebi, da sxva). am
monacemTa Segrovebas Tan axlda damatebiTi monacemebi da informaciebi, romelic
mogvewodeboda sxvadasxva institutebis warmomadgenlebis mier 2007 wlis ivnisi-
ivlisi periodSi. saqarTveloSi monacemTa Segrovebis Sesaxeb detaluri angariSi,
saTanado uflebamosil pirebTan da institutebTan Sexvedrebi da monacemTa
Segrovebis procesi micemulia Tavdapirvel angariSSi.
radganac arsebuli monacemTa done icvleboda angariSidan angariSamde, saWiro
xdeboda monacemebis Sesworeba, dafuZnebuli zogadad konsultantis gamocdilebasa
da gansjaze, raTa Catarebuliyo analizi daxloebiT msgavsi donis monacemebis
gamoyenebiT (ix. cxrili 2.1).
:
9
cxrili 2.1 xelmisawvdomi informacia.
saWiro informaciis done
arsebuli informaciis done
dasaxelebateqnikuri
garemosdacviTi
da socialuri
HxudonhesiPP nawilobrivi
Seswavla
ar yofila
garemodacviTi
kvleva, ruqebi
da aRwerebi
faravani hesi winaswari
Sefaseba
ar yofila
garemodacviTi
kvleva, ruqebi
da aRwerebi
namaxvanis kaskadinawilobrivi
Seswavla
ar yofila
garemodacviTi
kvleva, ruqebi
da aRwerebi
mikro da mini
hesebi 10mgvt-ze
naklebi
simZlavris
ZiriTadi
teq-nikuri
monace-mebi,
zogierTi
ruqa, zusti
mdebareobis
miTiTebis
gareSe,
hidrologi
uri
monacemebi,
fiqsirebul
i energia
ar aris
mcire da
saSualo
simZlavre 10-dan
50mgvt-mde. (25
adgili, sul
600mgvt)
ZiriTadi
teq-nikuri
monace-mebi,
zogierTi
ruqa, zusti
mdebareobis
miTiTebis
gareSe,
hidrologi
uri
monacemebi,
fiqsirebul
i energia
ar aris
50mgvt-ze meti
simZlavris
hidrosadgurebi
SefasebiTi
potenciali,
specifikuri
proeqtebis
gareSe,
informacia (ar
aris ruqebi,
mdebareobebi,
hidrologiuri
monacemebi,
ar aris
:
10
fiqsirebuli
energia)
sxva ganaxlebadi
wyaroebi (qari,
geoTermuli,
biomasa, mze)
ZiriTadi
teqnikuri
monacemebi
da
SefasebiTi
potenciali,
specifikuri
proeqtebis
monacemebis
gareSe (ar
aris ruqa,
mdebareoba
…)
zogadi
mosazrebebi
arsebuli hesebi
ZiriTadi
teqnikuri
monacemebi
da Tviuri
generacia
didi
sadgurebisa
Tvis,
ruqebi,
hidrologia
mxolod
engurisaTvi
s
zogadi
mosazrebebi
arsebuli
Tbosadgurebi
ZiriTadi
teqnikuri
monacemebi
zogadi
mosazrebebi
axali
Tbosadgurebi
garkveuli
miniSneba
gazis
sadurze da
adgilobriv
i
qvanaxSiris
SesaZlo
ar aris
:
11
ganviTarebis zogierTi variantisaTvis, monacemebi arsebobda nawilobrivi winaswari
Seswavlis doneze, romelic met informacias moicavda gareosdacviTi da
socialuri aspeqtebis Sesaxeb da detalur xarjTaRricxvas. speqtris meore mxares
iyo proeqtebi, romlebic mxolod dasaxelebulni iyvnen da romelzec ar arsebobda
zusti informacia, TviT ganTavsebis zusti adgilmdebareobis Sesaxebac ki.
im mizniT rom gakeTebuliyo Sedareba Tanabar pirobebSi, gansakuTrebuli yuRadReba
daeTmo ZiriTadi teqnikuri da garemosdacviTi maxasiaTeblebis kvlevas yvela
variantis SemTxvevaSi da aseve kapitaluri, saoperacio da saeqspluatacio
xarjebis Sefasebas. am midgomas unda ganesazRvra misaRebi daSvebani, romlebsac
unda miveyvaneT mizanSewonili ganviTarebis variantebis gansazRvramde saqarTvelos
momaval energosistemaSi.
saqarTveloSi monacemTa Semgrovebeli misiis muSaobis dros da mis Semdeg
Segrovebuli monacemebis safuZvelze, aseve
arsebuli monacemebis analizis safuZvelze,
konsultantma Caatara im amocanebis kvleva
romlebic gansazRvruli iyo proeqtis
davalebaSi.
zogad SemTxvevaSi, yvela eleqtrokompaniis
upirvelesi mizania adeqvaturad
daakmayofilos prognozirebuli
moTxovnileba eleqtroenergiaze minimaluri
danaxarjebiT. raTqmaunda, eleqtrokompaniam
unda gaiTvaliswinos arsebuli SezRudvebi,
rogoricaa finansuri SezRudvebi da
adgilobrivi gamoyenebadi resursebi, aseve
mTavrobis ganviTarebis politika da
garemosdacviTi da socialuri standartebi.
optimaluri gadawyvetilebis moZebnisas
integrirebulma Seswavlam mxedvelobaSi
miiRo ganviTarebis sxvadasxva
alternativebis orive - raodenovrivi da
xarisxobrivi parametrebi
amgvarad, piervel safexurze, analizi Catarebuli iyo WASP IV programuli paketis
gamoyenebiT, energosistemis modelirebis farTod gamoyenebuli Tanamedrove instrumentiT,
romelic gamoiyeneba generaciis sistemis gafarToebis Sesaswavlad; meore etapze
konsultantma Caatara mravalkriteriumiani optimizacia da gaakeTa alternatiuli
variantebis ranJireba (ICOR programuli paketis gamoyenebiT) im mizniT, rom ganesazRvra
ganviTarebis optimaluri varianti, ekonomikuri, garemosdacviTi da socialuri aspeqtebis
gaTvaliswinebiT.
mocemul kvlevaSi, arsebuli Tbo da ganaxlebadi wyaroebis variantebi Seswavlil iqna
teqnikuri da ekonomikuri TvalsazrisiT da moxda zogierTi maTganis gamoricxva Semdgomi
pirvel etapze konsultantis dagegmvis
specialistebi koncentrirebulni iyvnen
generaciis yvelaze ekonomikuri
ganviTarebis alternativis ZiebiT, anu
simZlavris gazrdis iseTi programis
ZiebiT, romelic moiTxovs
alternatiuli variantebis Sedarebis
mizniT arCeuli ekonomikuri
kriteriumebis optimalur
mniSvnelobas; amave dros moiTxoveboda
sistemis saimedoobis, eleqtroenergiis
miwodebis uwyvetobis da sxva
raodenobrivi maxasiaTeblebis
damakmayofilebeli done. meore etapze,
ekonomikuri, garemosdacviTi da
socialuri aspeqtebis bazaze
ganxorcielda arCeuli yvelaze
mimzidveli alternativebis gaanalizeba
da ranJirebranJireba, ramac mogvca
arCeuli alternativebis
integrirebuli Sefaseba.
:
12
detaluri analizidan WASP IV programuli paketis gamoyenebiT. gamoyenebuli winaswari
Sefasebis meTodologia, WASP IV meTodologiis mokle aRwera da mravalkriteriumiani
optimizaciisa da alternativebis ranJirebisTvis gamoyenebuli meTodologia – ICOR (iteraciuli SeTanxmebuli ranJireba) mocemulia danarTSi.
:
13
3. mimdinare situacia saqarTveloSi
3.1. saqarTvelos bunebrivi maxasiaTeblebi
geografia
saqarTvelo aris umetesad dasavleTis tipis qveyana samxreT kavkasiaSi, romelic
ganlagebulia Savi zRvis aRmosavleT sanapiroze. mTebi warmoadgenen dominantur
geografiul maxasiaTebels saqarTvelosTvis. didi kavkasioni, kavkasionis mTebis
mTavari mTagrexili, qmnis qveynis Crdilo sazRvars da mcire kavkasionis mTebs
uWiravT qveynis samxreTi nawili. mTaTa es ori sistema dakavSirebulia
erTmaneTTan liaxvis mTagrexiliT, romelic kveTs qveyanas CrdiloaRmosavleTidan
samxreTdasavleTisaken. am gamyofis marcxniv aris kolxeTis dablobi, romelic
gadaWimulia Sav zRvamde. liaxvis mTagrexilis aRmosavleTiT mdebareobs qarTlis
dablobi, maRali plato, romelic mihyveba mdinare mtkvars Aazerbaijanis
sazRvrisaken. istoriulad saqarTvelos dasavleTi nawili cnobili iyo kolxeTis
saxeliT, xolo aRmosavleT platos erqva iberia. rTuli geografiuli ganlagebis
gamo, mTebi agreTve gamohyofs Crdilo nawils – svaneTs – danarCeni
saqarTvelosagan.
suraTi 3.1. saqarTvelos mdebareoba
:
14
yvelaze umaRlesi wertilebi, saqarTvelos yvelaze maRali mwvervalis Sxaras
(5,069m) da yazbegis (5,037m) CaTvliT, ganlagebulia didi kavkasionze, sxva
mwvervalebTan erTad, romelta simaRle 4,500m-ze metia. samxreTSi, mcire
kavkasionze, simaRle zRvis donidan iSviaTad aRemateba 3,000m. Savis zRvis napiris
gaswvriv da kolxeTis dablobis mdinareebis xeobebSi zRvis donidan simaRle
rogorc wesi 100m-ze naklebia.
klimati
saqarTvelos klimati sakmaod mravalferovania dawyebuli subtropikuli
klimatidan mTeli wlis ganmavlobaSi Savi zRvis napirze da damTavrebuli
komtinentaluri, civi zamTriT da cxeli zafxuliT aRmosavleTiT. didi
kavkasionis mTagrexili qmnis bariers civi haeris masebis winaaRmdeg, romlebic
CrdiloeTidan Semodian, xolo Tbili, nestiani haeri Savi zRvidan iolad moZraobs
zRvis napiris dablobze dasavleTidan. Savi zRvis napiris gaswvriv regionis
subtropikuli xmelTaSuazRvis klimati xelsayrel pirobebs qmnis palmis xeebis
gaxarebisaTvis. es areali Zalin nestiania da weliwadSi naleqebis raodenoba
1,000-dan 2,000 mm-mdea, xSirad aRemateba 2,000 mm-s sanapiro zolSi. Sua zamTris
saSualo temperature 50C da Sua zafxulis saSualo temperatura ki 220C. alpur
da maRalmTian regionebs aRmosavleTiT da dasavleTiT, da naxevarudabno regions
loris platodan samxreTaRmosavleTiT gaaCniaT TavianTi regionisaTvis
damaxasiaTebeli mikroklimati. naleqebis odenoba dasavleT saqarTveloSi Tanabrad
aris ganawilebuli wlis manZilze, Tumca gansakuTrebiT Zlieri wvimebia
Semodgomis Tveebis ganmavlobaSi. wliuri naleqi aRmosavleT saqarTveloSi
mniSvnelovnad mcirea vidre dasavleT saqarTveloSi da meryeobs intervalSi 400-
1600mm (16-63 inCi). yvelaze wvimiani periodi sazogadod aris gazafxuli da
Semodgoma, maSin roca zamTris da zafxulis Tveebi yvelaze mSralia.
hidrografia
saqarTveloSi aTasobiT mdinarea (daaxloebiT 25,000, romelTa umetesobis sigrZe
25km-ze naklebia), romlebic Caedinebian an dasavleTiT Sav zRvaSi da Aan
azerbaijanis gavliT kaspiis zRvaSi aRmosavleTiT. aRmosavleT nawilis udidesi
mdinarea mtkvari, sigrZe 384km. is iwyeba TurqeTSi da miedineba aRmosavleTisaken
saqarTvelos da Aazerbaijanis dablobebis gayolebiT da Caedineba kaspiis zRaSi.
misi ZiriTadi Senakadebia: focxovi, didi liaxvi, aragvi, lori, alazani, faravani,
algeTi da xrami. dasavleT saqarTvelos udidesi mdinarea rioni, romlis sigrZe
327km. misi mTavari Senakadebia: cxeniswyali, texura da yvirila. sxva mniSvnelovan
mdinarebs miekuTvnebian enguri, kodori, aWariswyali, Woroxi da xobi. ori ufro
patara, magram mniSvnelovani mdinare enguri da kodori, iseve rogorc rioni,
saTaves iReben didi kavkasionze da miedinebian kolxeTis dablobis gavliT Savi
zRvisaken samxreTdasavleTiT.
:
15
naxazi 3.2 hidrogafikuli ruqa
(garmosdacviTi angariSidan – saqarTveli, gaero, 2003)
saqarTveloSi 850-ze meti tbaa, Tumca maTi saerTo farTobi ar aRemateba 170km2.
yvelaze didi tbaa faravani (37km2) da paliastomi (17.3km2), xolo yvelaze Rrma
tbaa riwa (116m) da amtyeli (72m).
landSafti da ekosistemebi
qveynis sazRvrebs SigniT landSafti sakmaod mravalferovania. dasavleT
saqarTvelos landSafti icvleba dablobis Waobis mcenareebidan, lerwamebidan
da zomieri sartylis wvimis tyidan mudmiv Tovlamde da yinulebamde, maSin,
roca qveynis aRmosavleT nawili moicavs TviT naxevarudabnos patara
segmentebsac ki, romelic centraluri aziisTvisaa damaxasiaTebeli. tye faravs
saqarTvelos teritoriis daaxloebiT 40%, xolo alpuri/subalpuri zona
moicavs daaxloebiT teritoriis 10%. sazogadod, tyis safari gvxvdeba
aradablob adgilebSic da ZiriTadad ganlagebulia gorakebis Ziris gaswvriv
da mTebze. dasavleT saqarTvelos tyeebi dabal adgilebSi, ZiriTadad zRvis
donidan 600 metrze moicaven foTlovan xeebs da Sedgeba iseTi jiSebisagan
rogoricaa muxa, wifela, rcxila, Tela, ifani, wabli. bevr adgilas SeiZleba
napovni iyos maradmwvane jiSebi, rogoricaa magaliTad kavkasiuri palma.
mesxeTis qedis dasavleT-centraluri ferdobebi aWaris avtonomiur
respublikaSi da aseve ufro CrdiloeTiT samegrelos regionSi da afxazeTis
:
16
avtonomiur respublikaSi dafarulia zomieri sartylis wvimis tyiT. zRvis
donidan 600-1500m simaRleze, foTlovani tye Sereulia wiwvovani xeebis
saxeobebTan. am zonaSi ZiriTadad gvxvdeba wifelis, naZvis, fiWvis tyeebi.
1,500-1,800 metridan tye umeteswilad xdeba wiwvovani. xeebis rigi sazogadod
mTavrdeba 1,800 metr simaRleze da Warbobs alpuri zona, romelic umetes
adgilebSi vrceldeba zRvis donidan 3,000 m simaRlemde. mudmivi Tovli da
yinulis zona mdebareobs 3,000m-ze maRla.
aRmosavleT saqarTvelos landSafti mniSvnelovnad gansxvavebulia
dasavleTisagan. Tumca, kolxeTis dablobis msgavsad, aRmosavleT saqarTvelos
TiTqmis yvela dabal adgilas md. mtkvaris da md. alazanis dablobebis
CaTvliT tye gaCexilia sasoflo-sameurneo miznebisaTvis. garda amisa, regionis
SedarebiT mSrali havis gamo, zogierTi dabali adgilebi (gansakuTrebiT
qarTlis regioni da kaxeTis regionis samxreT-aRmosavleTi) arasodes ar
yofila tyiT dafaruli. aRmosavleT saqarTvelos zogadi landSafti moicavs
mraval xeobas da xevs, romlebic erTmaneTisagan gayofilia mTebiT. dasavleT
saqarTvelosgan gansxvavebiT, am regionSi tyeebis daaxloebiT 85%
foTlovania. wiwvovani tyeebi dominireben mxolod borjomis xeobasa da Zalian
aRmosavleT raionebSi. foTlovani xeebis saxeobebidan dominirebs wifela, muxa
da Tela. sxva gavrcelebul foTlovan saxeobebs miekuTvnebaT nekerCxali,
alvis xe, ifani, tyis Txili. mdinare alazanis zemo xeobaSi gvxvdeba
urTxmeli. ufro maRla, zRvis donidan 1,000 metrze zeviT (gansakuTrebiT
TuSeTSi, xevsureTSi da xevSi) dominirebs fiWvis da aryis xeebi. sazogadod,
tyeebi aRmosavleT saqarTveloSi gvxvdeba 500-2,000 metrze zRvis donidan,
xolo alpuri zona mdebareobs 2,000/2,200 – 3,000/3,500 metrze. didi
dablobis tyeebi darCenilia mxolod kaxeTis alazanis xeobaSi. mudmivi
Tvovlis da yinulis zona aRmosavleT saqarTvelos umetes adgilebSi
mdebareobs 3,500 metris zeviT zRvis donidan.
saqarTvelos gaaCnia ekosistemebis didi mravalferovneba. ZiriTadi
ekosostemebi SeiZleba Sedardes bio-geografiul biocenozs. saqarTveloSi
aris cxra Sida biocenozi mainc: mdinaris kalapotis gaswvriv arsebuli
tyeebi, naxevarudabno, stepi, udabnos msubuqi tyis masivi, hemiqserofitis
buCqnari, tye, qvealpuri zona, alpuri zona da subnivaluri zona (ix. naxazi
3-3). am sias SeiZleba daematos Waobebi. Tumca, sxvadasxva mecnierebi
ekosistemebis dayofis da klasifikaciis Zalian gansxvavebul sqemas uWeren
mxars.
:
17
naxazi 3.3. ZZiriTadi biocenozis ruqa
(garemosdacviTi angariSidan – saqarTvelo, gaero, 2003)
tye
saqarTvelos tyeebi moicaven did garmosdacviT, ekonomikur, kulturul,
samecniero da rekreaciul resursebs. saqarTvelos mTliani teritoriis 6.95
milioni ha - daaxloebiT 43% (daaxloebiT 3 milioni ha) aRniSnulia rogorc
tyiani, romlisagan 2.75 milioni ha (40%) realurad dafarulia tyiT. daaxloebiT
2.2 milioni ha klasificirebulia rogorc saxelmwifo tye, romelzec
pasuxismgebelia garemosdacviTi saministros satyeo departamenti, xolo danarCeni
warmoadgens yofil “kolmeurneobebis miwebs”, romlis nawili amJamad gadaeca
satyeo departaments.
saxelmwifo tyis 80% warmoadgens foTlovan, xolo 20% wiwvovan tyes. ZiriTadi
gavrcelebuli saxeobebia: wifeli, romelic faravs miwis 49%-s, muxa 10%, soWi
8%, rcxila 7%, naZvi 6%, fiWvi 5%, Txmela 3% da wabli 3%, danarCeni 9%
moicavs sxvadasxva xeebis da buCqebis narevs. asakis stuqturis mixedviT, 48%
saxelmwifo tyeebisa (farTobis mixedviT) aris saSualo asakis, 15% aris
zrdasruli da 30% zrdasruli an gadaberebuli (igulisxmeba rom 7% aris
axalgazrda). Zalian mcirea monacemebi “kolmeurneobis” tyeebze. daikvirveba rom
isini gacilebiT axalgazrda arian da ufro intensiurad iWrebian vidre
:
18
saxelmwifo tyeebi – magaliTad, daaxloebiT 75% “kolmeurneobis” teritoriebisa
moicavs xeebs, romelTa asaki 60 welze naklebia.
naxazi 3-4. tyeebis ruqa
(garemosdacviTi angariSidan – saqarTvelo, gaero, 2003)
saxelmwifo tyeebis didi nawili ganlagebulia mTebze (xSirad cicaboze).
Sefasebulia, rom arsebuli moculobis 10%-ze naklebTan SeiZleba miRweva
normaluri miwis sagzao sistemiT (daxra naklebia 150-ze), ZiriTadad
traqtorebiTa da gamwevi cxovelebiT. moculobis daaxloebiT 70% ganlagebulia
250-ze meti daxris ferdobze da moiTxovs xe-tyis gadamamuSavebeli gzis
mSeneblobas da aseve jalambrebis da sabagiro sistemebis Seqmnas. “kolmeurneobis”
tyeebi Cveulebriv ganlagebulia nakleb daxrilobaze da ufro iolad SeiZleba
Wris ganxorcieleba miwis sagzao sistemis gamoyenebiT. rTuli misadgomi adgilebi
ufro mniSvnelovans xdian naklebad zemoqmedi (garemosdacvis kuTxiT misaRebi)
Wris teqnikis SemoRebas. sxva faqtori, romelic xels uSlis efeqtur Wras
mdgomareobs imaSi, rom qveyanaSi aris mxolod 9,500km tyis gza (daaxloebiT 60%
muSa mdgomareobaSia), xolo gzis saSualo simkvrivea 3.5m/ha, rac Zalian mcirea.
biomravalferovneba
Savi zRvidan kaspiis zRvamde teritoria warmoadgens biologiurad erTerT
yvelaze mdidar raions dedamiwaze. es regioni cnobilia, rogorc kavkasiis
biomravalferovnebis cxeli wertili. misi mTliani farTobia 590,000km2, moicavs
somxeTs, azerbaijans da saqarTvelos, ruseTis Crdilo kavkasiis nawils, TurqeTis
:
19
CrdiloaRmosavleTs da iranis CrdilodasavleTis nawils. am teritoriaze
arsebobs 10 derefani, romlebic miCneulia rogorc mniSvnelovani
biomravalferovnebis SesanarCuneblad (naxazi 3-5). es koriderebi warmoadgenen
didi masStabis landSaftebs, romelTa dacva saWiroa biomravalferovnebis
mudmivobis SesanarCuneblad. oTxi koridori gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovania
saqarTvelosaTvis: didi kavkasionis koridori, dasavleT mcire kavkasionis
koridori, javaxeTis koridori da iori-mingeCauris koridori, radganac isini
faraven saqarTvelos teritorias.
naxazi 3-5. koridorebi saqarTvelos cxel wertilebSi
1 – kuma-maniCi; 2 – didi kavkasioni; 3 – kaspiis; 4 – dasavleT mcire kavkasioni;
5 – javaxeTi; 6 – aRmosavleT mcire kavkasioni; 7 – iori-mingeCauri;
8 – samxreT zegani; 9 – azerbaijani; 10 – hirkani
daculi teritoriebi mniSvnelovan rols TamaSobdnen kavkasiis teritoriaze
bunebis SenaxvaSi daaxloebiT saukunis manZilze. pirveli daculi bunebrivi
nakrZali am regionSi Seiqmna 1912 wels lagodexis xeobaSi didi kavkasionis
mTagrexilis samxreT-aRmosavleT ferdobze saqarTveloSi. mas Semdeg 60-ze meti
daculi bunebrivi nakrZali Seiqmna kavkasiis yofil sabWoTa kavSiris nawilze,
romelTa umetesoba gauqmda 1950 wels. saqarTvelos hqonda 22 daculi bunebrivi
nakrZali 1951 wlamde. daculi teritoriebis reformis procesis bolos darCa
mxolod erTi nakrZali. droTa ganmavlobaSi, zogierTi adre arsebuli daculi
teritoriebi isev aRdga da Seiqnma axali teritoriebi. amJamad saqarTvelos
gaaCnia Tormeti daculi bunebrivi nakrZali, Tormeti kontrolirebadi nakrZali
:
20
da rva nacionaluri parki, da aseve mravali daculi landSafti da bunebrivi
Zeglebi.
1. algeTis sax. bunebrivi nakrZali 2. ajameTis sax. bunebrivi nakrZali
3. kintriSis sax. bunebrivi nakrZali 4. saTaflias sax. bunebrivi nakrZali
5. saguramos sax. bunebrivi nakrZali 6. liaxvis sax. bunebrivi nakrZali
7. yazbegis sax. bunebrivi nakrZali 8. mariamTvaris sax. bunebrivi nakrZali
da koruRis kontrolirebadi nakrZali
9. kacoburis kontrolirebadi nakrZali 10. gardabnis kontrolirebadi nakrZali
11. ioris kontrolirebadi nakrZali 12. WaWunas kontrolirebadi nalrZali
13.kolxeTis erovnuli parki 14. qobuleTis sax. bunebrivi nakrZali
da kontrolirebadi nakrZali
15.vaSlovanis daculi teritoria 16. lagodexis daculi teritoria
17.TuSeTis daculi teritoria 18. bawara-babaneuris daculi teritoria
19. borjomi-xaragaulis erovnuli parki
da borjomis sax. bunebrivi nakrZali
20. riWis sax. bunebrivi nakrZali
21. fsxu-gumistas sax. bunebrivi nakrZ. 22. biWvinTa-miuseras sax. bunebrivi
nakrZali
23. mtiralas erovnuli parki
:
21
naxazi 3-6. erovnuli nakrZalebisa da erovnuli parkebis ruqa
borjomi-xaragaulis erovnuli parki mdebareobs centralur saqarTveloSi da
warmoadgens mcire gavkasionis nawils. parki erTerTi yvelaze didia evropaSi – is
moicavs 76,000 ha-ze met bunebriv tyes da qve-alpur da alpur velebs,
warmoadgens iSviaTi florisa da faunis saxls.
kolxeTis erovnuli parki mdebareobs dasavleT saqarTveloSi, kolxeTis sanapiro
dablobze mdinare fiCorasa da sufsas yelebs Soris. kolxeTis erovnuli parki
moicavs 29,704 ha miwas, romelic ganvrcobilia zugdidis, xobis, lanCxuTis,
senakis da abaSas administraciul raionebze da moicavs 15,743 ha zRvis
teritorias. parki Seiqmna 1998 wels, rogorc saqarTvelos sazRvao zolis
integrirebuli marTvis proeqtis nawili, msoflio bankisa da globaluri
garemosdacviTi saSualebebis (GEF) finansuri daxmarebiT. erovnuli parki moicavs
kolxeTis saxelmwifo dacul nakrZals, romelic Seiqmna 1947 wels (500ha) da
mimdebare wylian teritoriebs, paliastomis tbis CaTvliT.
aRiarebulia, rom saxeobebis umetesoba yvelaze kargad inaxeba im adgilebis dacvis
SemTxvevaSi, sadac isini bunebrivad arseboben. swored amitomaa, rom saxeobebis
sacxovrebeli adgili ganisazvreba calkeuli aRebuli saxeobisaTvis. sacxovrebeli
adgilebi warmoadgens fizikurad da/an socioekonomiurad gamoyofil miwis
diskretul farTobs, romelic saWiroebs dacvas gansazRvruli saxeobebis
SesanarCuneblad. saqarTvelos teritoriaze 49 aseTi adgilia, mTliani farTobiT
2.17 milioni heqtari (naxazi 3-7) [1]
:
22
naxazi 3-7. saqarTvelos cxeli wertilebi
(wyaro: [1] kavkasiis biomravalferovnebis cxeli wertilebi, 2003)
cxrili 3.1. globaluri gadaSenebis safrTxis qveS myofi saxeobebis Semajamebeli
informacia kavkasiis cxel wertilebSi, saqarTveloSi
daculi adgilebi globaluri gadaSenebis safrTxis qeS myofi saxeobebi
taqsonomiur
i jgufi
adgilebi
s
raodenob
a
farTobi
(103ha)
kritikulad
saSiSisaSiSi
mgrZnobiar
e
safrTxis
qveSsul
ZuZumwovre
bi 25 1312 1 7 3 11
frinvelebi 19 845 5 5qvewarmavl
ebi 21 1357 1 2 1 1 5
amfibiebi 14 635 3 3Tevzebi 8 205 1 5 6sul 49 2174 2 8 11 9 30
wyaro: kavkasiis biomravalferovnebis cxeli wertilebi, 2003
:
23
cxrili 3.2 globalurad gadaSenebis safrTxis qveS myofi saxeobebi
saqarTvelos kavkasiis cxel wertilebSi
globaluri gadaSenebis safrTxis qeS myofi saxeobebitaqsonomiuri
jgufikritikulad
saSiSisaSiSi mgrZnobiare safrTxis qveS
sul
ZuZumwovrebi
Capra caucasica Barbastella barbastellus Myotis bechsteini Myotis emarginatus Rhinolophus hipposideros Capra aegagrus Capra cylindricornis Lutra lutra
Rhinolophus euryle Mustela lutreola Rhinolophys mehelyi
11
frinvelebi
Crex crex Falco naumanni Aquila heliaca Aquila clanga Anser erithropus
5
qvewarmavlebi Vipera darevskii Lacetra clarkorum
Vipera kaznakovi Vipera dinniki Testudo graeca 5
amfibiebi
Mertensiella caucasica Bufo verrucosissimusPelodytes caucasic
3
Tevzebi
Acipenser sturio Acipenser gueldenstaedtii Acipenser nudiventris Acipenser persicus Acipenser stellatus Huso huso
6
mTlianad 28 saxeoba, romelic warmoadgens xuT taqsons (ZuZumwovrebi,
frinvelebi, qvewarmavlebi, amfibiebi da Tevzebi) CarTulia saxeobaTa CamonaTvalSi.
TerTmeti ZuZumwovaras saxeoba, 3 frinvelis saxeoba, 5 reptiliis saxeoba, 3
amfibiis saxeoba da eqvsi Tevzis saxeoba dasacavadaa SerCeuli. ZuZumwevrebis erTi
saxeoba miCneulia rogorc gadaSenebis piras myofi - aRmosavleT kavkasiiis jixvi.ZuZumwevrebis Svidi saxeoba miCneulia rogorc mowyvlad mdgomareobaSi myofi
(dasavleTis barbastelle, Ramuris sami saxeoba, jixvis ori saxeoba da wavi), xolo
sami gadaSenebis safrTxis qveS myofi. frinvelTa xuTi saxeoba imyofeba
gadaSenebis safrTxis qveS. erTi reptilia gadaSenebis kritikul zRvarzea –
darevskis gvelgesla. ori saxeoba CaTvlilia rogorc gadaSenebis piras myofi
(Turquli xvliki da kavkasiuri gvelgesla), xolo erTi saxeoba - rogorc
mowyvladi da gadaSenebis safrTxis qveS myofi. amfibiis sami saxeoba mowyvlad
mdgomaroebaSi imyofeba (kavkasiuri salamandra, kavkasiuri gombeSo da kavkasiuri
winwklebiani bayayi).
TevzTa eqvsi saxeoba Sesulia saxeobaTa CamonaTvalSi. xuTi maTgani arian TarTis
ojaxis. eqvsidan xuTi Tevzi imyofeba gadaSenebis piras. gadaSenebis kritikul
zRvarzea baltiis TarTi, romelic binadrob marto Sav zRvaSi da saqarTveloSi
kolxeTis dablobis mdinareebSi. gadametebuli TevzWera da dabinZureba safrTxes
uqmnian yvela am Tevzis saxeobebs Sav zRvasa da kaspiis zRvebSi.
:
24
amgvarad, 30-dan ori saxeoba aris kritikulad gadaSenebis piras, 8 – gadaSenebis
pirasaa da 11 mowyvlad mdgomareobaSi imyofeba, xolo danarCeni 9 gadaSenebis
safrTxis qveS myofi saxeobebia. es saxeobebi warmoadgendnen safuZvels
saqarTvelos farglebSi arsebul kavkasiis cxeli wertilebis dasaxasiaTeblad da
iqnebian warmatebis mniSvnelovani indikatorebi saxeobaTa SenaxvisaTvis gaweul
momaval saqmianobobaSi.
iuridiuli da institucionaluri sakanonmdeblo baza
saqarTvelos respublikam sabWoTa kavSirisgan damoukidebloba gamoacxada 1991
wlis 9 aprils. igi dafuZnda, rogorc unitaruli saxelmwifo, romelic
regionalur doneze mniSvnelovan rola asrulebda socialuri saqmianobis
marTvaSi. saqarTveloSi 11 administraciuli erTeulia, romelTagan ori
avtonomiuri respublikaa: afxazeTi da aWara (naxazi 3-8). saqarTvelos
konstituciis 3-e statiis Tanaxmad, centralur xelisuflebas gaaCnia
eqskluziuri Zalaufleba administrireba gauwios miwis, mineralebis da bunebrivi
resursebis kanonmdeblobas, metrologiur samsaxurebs da garemos dacvis sistemas.
es niSnavs, rom xelisuflebis warmomadgenlebs regionebSi ar SeuZliaT awarmoon
damoukidebeli sakanonmdeblo saqmianoba am sferoebSi. amasTan erTad, centraluri
aRmasrulebeli organos regionaluri erTeulebis garda, TiToeul raions hyavs
misi administraciis ufrosi gubernatoris saxiT, romelsac moswons prezidentis
warmomadgenlis statusi. garemosdacva ar aris gubernatoris uflebaTa arealSi.
rogorc ki saqarTvelom gamoacxada damoukidebloba, sxvadasxva qmedebebi iqna
ganxorcielebuli sakanonmdeblo sistemis Sesaqmnelad, romelic miesadageboda
Secvlil politikur da ekonomikur mdgomareobas da gadawyvetda warmoSobil
problemebs, garemos dacvis CaTvliT. garemosdacvis aspeqtebTan dakavSirebuli
problemebi moicavs: haeris dabinZurebas, wylis resursebs (wylis dabinZureba da
sasmeli wylis momwodebeli resursebis degradacia), narCenebs, romelic
gamowveulia narCenebis da saSiSi qimiuri masalebis cudi menejmentiT; landSaftis
degradaciiT, da Savi zRvis degradaciiT dabinZurebis gamo.
:
25
naxazi 3-8. saqarTvelos administraciuli erTeulebis ruqa.
am problemaTa gadasawyvetad, garkveuli Zalisxmeva iqna gaweuli, rom Seqmniliyo
garemosdacviTi kanonmdeblobis Sesabamisi organo. saxelmwifos garemosdacviTi
politikis miznebi konkretuli saqmianobis Sesaxeb detaluradaa mocemuli
dagegmvis mraval dokumentSi (siRaribis daZlevis da ekonomikuri zrdis erovnuli
gegma, 2000; erovnuli garemosdacviTi samoqmedo gegma, 2000; socialuri da
ekonomikuri aRmSeneblobis da ekonomikuri zrdis programa, 2001; erovnuli
biomravalferovnebis strategia da samoqmedo gegma, 2005)
garemosdacvis kanonis farglebSi, garemosdacvis da bunebrivi resursebis
saministros, sxva saministoroebTan TanamSromlobiT, daevala SeimuSaos myari
ganviTarebis strategia. 2008 wlis TebervalSi saqarTvelos garemosdacvis da
bunebrivi resursebis saministros struqtura mocemulia naxazze 3-9.
:
26
qvemdebare
organizaciebi
struqturuli
erTeulebi
garemosdacviTi
inspeqtorati
satyeo
departamenti
sagamomZieblo
departamenti
zogadi inspeqcia
iuridiuli departamenti
licenziebisa da nebarTvebis
departamenti
administraciuli
departamenti
myari ganviTarebis
departamenti
integrirebuli
garemosdacvis marTvis da
biomravalferovnebis
departamenti
geologia-kartografiis da
geodeziis samsaxuri
birTvuli da radiaciis
usafrTxoebis samsaxuri
sazogadoebasTan
urTierTobis samsaxuri
saqarTvelos garemosdacvis
da bunebrivi resursebis
saministro
afxazeTis avtonomiuri
respublikis
garemosdacviTi samsaxuri
aWaris avtonomiuri
respublikis
garemosdacviTi samsaxuri
:
27
teritoriuli saxelmwifo filialebis
iuridiuli pirebi
naxazi 3-9. saqarTvelos garemosdacvis da bunebrivi resursebis saministros
struqtura
momzadda garkveuli raodenoba dagegmvis dokumentebisa, romlebic exeba specifikur
garemosdacviT sakiTxebs:
NEAP-2; erovnuli programa da samoqmedo gegma klimatis cvlilebaze;
erovnuli programa da samoqmedo gegma ozonis-STanTqmeli nivTierebis
gamoyofis Sesaxeb;
tyis ganviTarebis strategia;
sanapiro zonis integrirebuli marTvis programa;
Savi zRvis strategiuli erovnuli samoqmedo gegma;
garemosdacviTi ganaTlebis saxelmwifo programa da samoqmedo gegma;
saxelmwifo programis strategia (koncefcia) sawvavis xarisxis
gasaumjobeseblad;
gaudabnebasTan brZolis konvenciiis erovnuli samoqmedo programa.
ministris ofisi
teritorialuri
sainformacio
centri
monitoringisa da
prognozirebis
centri
myari ganviTarebis
proeqtebis dagegmvis
saagento
tyis sanerge
daculi
teritoriebis
saagento
samegrelo-zemo
svaneTis
regionaluri ofisi
dasavleT
centraluri
regionaluri ofisi
aRmosavleT
centraluri
regionaluri ofisi
qvemo qarTlis
regionaluri ofisi
samcxe-javaxeTis
regionaluri ofisi
kaxeTis
regionaluri ofisi
:
28
saerTaSoriso valdebulebebisa da rekomendaciebidan
gamomdinare sakanonmdeblo baza
gaanalizirebuli saqarTvelos hidrosadgurebi, gansakuTrebiT ki xudonhesi da
namaxvanis kaskadi, warmoadgenen rTul mniSvnelovan proeqtebs wylis seqtorSi.
pirveli mniSvnelovani sawyisi wertili wylis resursebis ganviTarebis proeqtebis
kompleqsuri ganmartebisa mocemuli iyo ggaeros konferenciaze adamianTa garemos
Sesaxeb, stokholmSi, 1972 wels. konferenciis udidesi mniSvneloba gamoixateboda
imaSi, rom is Riad aerTianebda ekonomikur, socialuri ganviTarebis da
garemosdacviT komponentebs ganuyofel erTeulad. es asaxulia konferenciis
erTerT principSi, romelic ambobs, rom ar arsebobs ganviTareba garemos
SenarCunebis gareSe da garemo ar SeiZleba SenarCundes siRaribeSi. Tu
mxedvelobaSi miviRebT im faqts, rom ganviTarebis proeqtebi xorcieldeba didi
mdinareebis sistemis doneze, konferenciam misca rekomendacia rom Seqmniliyo
efeqturi marTvis organoebi didi mdinareebis auzis doneze, raTa garantirebuli
yofiliyo wylis ekosistemis dacvis yvelaze efeqturi gzebis gamonaxva, wylis
aqtiuri menejmentis saSualebiT.
gaeros konferencia wylis Sesaxeb (Mar del Plata 1977) kidev ufro metad gadamwyvet Semobrunebis wertils warmoadgenda wylis ganviTarebis didi proeqtebis
mniSvnelobis aRiarebaSi. saboloo dokumenti gadaeca gaeros wevr-qveynebis
mTavrobebs rekomendaciebis formis saxiT, romelTagan winamdebare kvelevaSi
xazgasmulia wylis gamoyenebis strategiis mxolod Semdegi rekomendaciebi:
saWiroa gaxSirdes hidrosadgurebis potencialis, rogorc ganaxlebadi da
ekologiurad yvelaze ufro misaRebi tipis energiis gamoyeneba;
wylis reJimebi unda gaumjobesdes rezervuaris menejmentis saSualebiT;
wyalze, romelic warmoadgens SezRudul umniSvnelovanes resurss Cvens
planetaze, warmoqmnili maRali moTxovnileba gaTvaliswinebulia wylis
gamoyenebis, wylisgan dacvis da wylis dacvis erTian proeqtebSi, romelTa
ganxorcieleba SesaZlebelia ise, rom optimaluri socialuri, ekonomikuri
da ekologiuri sargebelic iyos miRebuli;
im faqtis mxedvelobaSi miRebiT, rom hidravlikuri struqturebis
mSenebloba moiTxovs saWiro teritoriebis droulad Senaxvas da dacvas,
wylis dagegmarebas sxva sivrcul gegmebTan SedarebiT prioriteti gaaCnia.
es naTladaa asaxuli rekomendaciaSi, romlis Tanaxmad wylis sferoSi
principuli miznebi naTlad unda iyos gaerTianebuli yvela erovnuli
ganviTarebis gegmasTan, romelic Semdgom SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnas yvela
sxva gegmebis bazisad; agreTve, rekomendaciis Tanaxmad wylis sferoSi
proeqtebi unda momzaddes mdinaris auzis ekonomikuri da socialuri
ganviTarebis swor kriteriumebze dayrdnobiT; da
wyali warmoadgens resurss, romelsac iseTive fasi gaaCnia, rogorc sxva
resursebs da amgvarad wylis gamoyenebas unda mohyves misi ekonomikuri
Rirebulebis srulad anazRaureba, romelic unda moicavdes wylis da
mdinaris auzebis dacvis Rirebulebas.
:
29
garemosdacvis da ganviTarebis msoflio komisia mis Zalian cnobil saboloo
dokumentSi “Cveni saerTo momavali” (1987) gansazRvravs ZiriTad princips,
romelic eqstremalurad mniSvnelovania wylis seqtoris ganviTarebis
harmonizaciisaTvis – hidroinJineriis CaTvliT – da garemos dasacavad: gadarCenis
momtani ganviTareba. siRaribe amcirebs xalxis SesaZleblobas gamoiyenos resursebi
Wkvianurad da aZlierebs dawolas garemoze. ekonomikuri da ekologiuri
problemebi urTierTdamokidebulia. an ufro mokled: garemos dacva ar SeiZleba
mimdinareobdes warmatebiT Tu mas Tan ar axlavs adeqvaturi ekonomikuri
ganviTareba13. ganviTarebis aseTi principi, gansazRvruli rogorc “eko-ganviTareba”
an – “sicocxlisunariani ganviTareba”, eqstremalurad mniSvnelovania saqarTvelos
ganviTarebis strategiisaTvis, radganac saqarTvelos gaaCnia mniSvnelovani
hidropotenciali, romelic saWiroebs SeZlebisdagvarad srulad gamoyenebas misi
ekonomikuri da socialuri ganviTarebisaTvis. aseTi midgomis strategiuli
mniSvnelobis gamo, zemo dokumenti naTlad miuTiTebs ganviTarebisa da garemos
dacvas Soris urTierTdamokidebulebis da kavSirebis arsebobas, rac mocemulia
SeniSvnaSi.
igive Tvalsazrisi imis Sesaxeb, rom wylis integraluri proeqtebi warmoadgenen
ganviTarebis da garemosdacvis RonisZiebebis biZgis ZiriTad mimcemebs, aseve cxadi
gaxda ddublinis konferenciaze (saerTaSoriso konferencia wylisa da garemos
Sesaxeb, dublini, 1992). konferenciis ori ZiriTadi principi, romelTac didi
mniSvneloba aqvT wylis dagegmvisa da menejmentis strategiis aspeqtebis
TavalsazrisiT mdgomareobs SemdegSi • wyali aris ekonomikuri kategoria da mas
unda movekidoT, rogorc ganviTarebis mniSvnelovan resurss; • wylis menejmenti
dafuZnebuli unda iyos momxmarebelTa, damgegmavTa da yvela doneze
gadawyvetilebis mimRebTa monawileobaze; • unda dafuZndes TanamSromlobis
institucionaluri forma, romelic SesaZleblobas mogvcems wylis menejmentis
koordinacia ganxorcieldes didi mdinareebis auzebis doneze da sxvadasxva
saxelmwifos teritoriebze.
msoflioSi aseTi saxis yvelaze mniSvnelovan Sexvedras warmoadgenda ggaremosa da
ganviTarebis konferencia (rio-de-Janeiro 1992), romelic agreTve cnobilia
dedamiwis sammitis saxeliT da romelmac miiRo mravali mniSvnelovani dokumenti
wylis seqtoris Sesaxeb, Semdegi yvelaze mniSvnelovani dokumentebis CaTvliT:
13miznad dasaxuli simyare moiTxovs, rom yvela qveyanam xelaxla gaiazros misi politikis da
saqmianobis gavlena msoflios ekonomikis da ekologiis ganviTarebaze. am procesSi kritikuli
miznebi moicavs:
ekonomikuri zrdis aRdgena. siRaribe amcirebs xalxis mier resursebis Wkvianad
gamoyenebis SesaZleblobas da aZlierebs dawolas garemoze. am dekadis erT adgilze
mdgomi an klebadi ekonomikuri zrdis tendenciebi unda sapirispirod Seicvalos,
gansakuTrebiT ganviTarebad qveynebSi, sadac kavSiri ekonomikur zrdas, siRaribis
daZlevas da garemosdacvis RonisZiebebis gaaqtiurebas Soris yvelaze TvalSisacemia.
ekologiuri da ekonomikuri problemebi urTierTdakavSirebulia. amitom garemosdacva
da ekonomika Tavidanve integrirebuli unda iyos gadawyvetilebebis miRebaSi, ara
garemos dacvis mizniT, aramed grZelvadiani ekonomikuri da socialuri ganviTarebis
xelSesawyobad.
(“Cveni saerTo momavali – sasicocxlo ganviTareba”, msoflio komisiis angariSi
garemosdacvasa da ganviTarebaze, 1987)
:
30
rios deklaracia garemosa da ganviTarebis Sesaxeb, klimatis cvlilebis konvencia,
biologiuri mravalferovnebis konvencia da bolos – dRis wesrigi 21. dRis
wesrigi 21 warmoadgens daaxloebiT 2500 rekomendaciis krebuls, ganviTarebis
sasicocxlo sakiTxebTan dakavSirebiT. wylis menejmentis strategiisaTvis yvelaze
mniSvnelovania Tavi 18, romelic fokusirebas akeTebs wylis menejmentis
mTlianobaze mdinaris auzis doneze da wylis menejmentis mraval-seqtoriul
midgomaze socialuri, ekonomikuri da ganviTarebis problemebis, garemosdacvis
problemebis da am sferos sxva momxmareblis problemaTa CaTvliT. saqarTveloSi
dagegmvisa da integrirebuli ganviTarebis sistemebi, romlebic ganxorcieldeba
wylis integrirebuli proeqtebis ganxorcielebis gziT, gadaWris saqarTvelos
teritoriis konkretul, amJamad ganuviTarebeli nawilebis ekonomikisa da
soacialuri ganviTarebis strategiul amocanebs. es sistemebi warmoadgens dRis
wesrigi 21-is principebis yvelaze efeqtur gamoyenebas, radganac igi afuZnebs
mWido kavSirs ekonomikis ganviTarebasa da ekologiuri, kulturuli da garemos
dacvis sxva mraval RonisZiebebs Soris.
evrogaerTianebis wylis direqtiva (evroparlamentisa da evrosabWos direqtiva
2000/06/EC sazogadoebis saqmianobebis CarCoebis DdafuZneba wylis politikis
sakiTxebSi) warmoadgens mniSvnelovan platformas wylis seqtoris dagegmvis
saqmeSi. Semdegi sakiTxebi gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovania intergrirebuli sistemebis
dagegmvisaTvis saqarTveloSi:
wylis integrirebuli menjmenti didi hidrografiuli erTeulebis doneze;
im mdinareTa auzebis koordinirebuli menejmenti, romlebic kveTs qveynis
sazRvrebs;
hidroinJineriis miznebis harmonizireba garemosdacvis sakiTxebTan;
wylis nakadebSi wylis xarisxis Sefasebis maRali standartebi da wylis
xarisxis aqtiuri menejmenti wylis daRvris marTvis zomebis gamoyenebiT;
ekonomikuri politika, romelic sistemis TviTdafinansebis saSualebas
iZleva;
realisturi, ekonomikuri wylis fasi da momxmarebli-ixdis-dambinZurebeli-
ixdis principis mkacri pativiscema, yvela Rirebulebis sruli kompensacia,
wylis Rirebulebis da garemos dacvis xarjebis CaTvliT;
sazogadoebisaTvis wylis seqtorSi arsebuli problemebis gacnoba,
konsultaciebi, sxvadasxva jgufebis interesTa dabalanseba; da
momxmarebelTa da sazogadoebis warmomadgenelTa monawileoba im organoebis
muSaobaSi, vinc iRebs gadawyvetilebas wylis menejmentis Sesaxeb.
3.2. energosistemis mimdinare statusi saqarTveloSi
saqarTvelo eleqtroenergiis, navTobproduqtebis da bunebrivi gazis wminda
importiori qveyanaa. am importebis Rirebuleba mniSvnelovnad gaizarda bolo
ramodenime wlis manZilze da mTavrobas survili aqvs Caanacvlos zogierTi
importi axali, ekonomikurad mimzidveli, qveynis SigniT warmoebuli energiiT.
:
31
sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg, saqarTveloSi daiwyo Zlieri energetikuli
krizisi. krizisi gamowveuli iyo energosistemis dezintegraciiT, energiaze fasebis
zrdiT, da energosistemis saremonto samuSaoebis naklebobiT. 1991 wlamde,
saqarTvelo, somxeTi da azerbaijani warmoadgendnen trnaskavkasiis
urTierTdakavSirebuli energosistemis integralur nawilebs, romelic Tavis mxriv
warmoadgenda sabWoTa kavSiris energosistemis nawils. importirebuli sawvavi da
eleqtroenergia iyo “ufaso” urTierTdakavSirebuli energosistemaSi, romelSic
amJamad safasuria gadasaxdeli. gazze da importirebul eleqtroenergiaze fasebi
gaizarda msoflio bazris doneze. amasTan erTad, saqarTvelos hidroenergiis
generaciis sezonuri gansxvavaeba, romelic adre balansdeboda importirebuli
energiiT, veRar Seesabameboda gazrdil moTxovnilebas zamTarSi mxolod
adgilobrivi Tbosadguris energiis xarjze.
sawvavis da Tbosadgurebis saremonto samuSaoebis naklebobam gamoiwvia maTi
TiTqmis mTlianad mwyobridan gamosvla. Sedegad, hidroenergiis wilis mTlian
generaciaSi gaizarda 53%-dan 1990 wels, 83%-mde 1996 wels da TviT 93%-mde
2002 wels. cudi saremonto samuSaoebis gamo, hidrosadgurebi muSaobdnen maTi
simZlavris 60%-ze.
yoelive zemoTqmulma gamoiwvia energiis didi deficiti da iZulebiTi nawilobrivi
gamorTvebi qveynis masStabiT. 2003 wlis vardebis revoluciis Sedegad movida
axali mTavroba, romelmac mravali warmatebiTi RonisZieba ganaxorciela energiis
deficitis aRmosafxvrelad. mTavroba awarmoebda generaciis obieqtebis
reabilitacias rogorc sakuTari xarjebiT, aseve saerTaSorisso safinanso
institutebis daxmarebiT; ZiriTad sawarmoebSi ganxorcielda saerTaSoriso
menejment kontraqtebi; gadauxada eleqtroenergiis davalianeba mezobel qveynebs;
SemoiRo komerciuli disciplina seqtorSi da gazarda tarifebi. Sedegad, 2006
wlidan dawyebuli seqtori sazogadod gamovida krizisidan.
saqarTvelos yvelaze mniSvnelovani energogeneraciis erTeulebi da gadamcemi
qselis sistema mocemulia ruqaze – naxazi 3-10.
saqarTveloSi 2007 wels Tbogeneraciis sistemas gaaCnda oTxi Tbosadguri, ori
Zveli da ori axali. saqarTveloSi mTavari Zveli Tbosadguri aris 1850mgvt
Tbilsresis sadguri Tbilisis maxloblad. Tbilsresis sadguri moicavs 10 bloks,
romelTagan amJamad mxolod 3 blokia muSa mdgomareobaSi – reabilitirebuli 3
da 4 blokebi Tbilsresis sadgurSi da 9-e bloki privatizirebul sadgurSi,
romelsac exla hqvia “mtkvari”. winaswari SefasebiT Tbilsresis 3-e da 4-e
blokebi imuSaveben 2014 wlis bolomde, xolo mtkvaris 9-e bloki imuSavebs
dagegmvis periodis bolomde (2021). erTi axali Tbosadguria energoinvestis
Tbosadguri. yvela blokSi ZiriTadi sawvavad gaTvaliswinebuli bunebrivi airi.
im arsebuli Tbosadgurebis ZiriTadi teqnikuri maxasiaTeblebi, romlebic
gamoyenebul iqna generaciis gafarToebis dagegmvis analizSi mocemulia cxrilSi
3.3
:
32
:
33
naxazi 3-10. energogeneraciis erTeulebi da gadamcemi qselis sistema
cxrili 3.3. saqarTveloSi arsebuli Tbosadgurebis ZiriTadi maxasiaTeblebi
sadguris
dasaxelebamtkvari 9
energo
investi*Tbilsresi
3-e bloki
Tbilsresi
4-e bloki
sadguris tipi STG CCGT STG CCGT dadgmuli
simZlavre
mgvt 300 150 150 160xelmisawvdomi
simZlavre
mgvt 270 140 125 130min. gagzavnili
simZlavre
mgvt 108 50 50 50 maq.gagzavnili
simZlavre
mgvt 250 140 125 130iZulebiTi
gaTiSvebi % 10 8 10 10 remonti
dRe/weli 30 30 30 30 min. Tburi
simZlavre
kkal/kvtsT 3017 2048 2867 2867 maqs. Tburi
simZlavre
kkal/kvtsT 2244 1756 2538 2530 cvladi O&M $/mgvtsT 2.55 2.93 4.4 4.4fiqsirebuli
O&M xarji
$/kvt-Tve 5.32 .8 5.76 5.76
:
34
*Tavdapirvelad, konsultants mier mopovebuli informaciiT, 40mgvt simZlavris orTqlis turbinis
proeqti ganxorcielebis fazaSi iyo; analizis dasrulebis Semdeg cxadi gaxda, rom 40mgvt orTqlis
turbina jer ar iyo gaSvebuli. yvela scenarSi es sadguri moixsenieba rogorc 150mgvt simZlavris
kombinirebuli ciklis gazoturbina; Tumca scenarebis erTmaneTTan Sedarebisas es sadguri ver moqmedebs.
Tbosadgurebis ZiriTadi teqnikuri maxasiaTeblebis garda, eleqtroenergiaze
moTxovnilebis dakmayofilebaSi maT monawileobis doneze ZiriTad zegavlenas
axdens bunebrivi airis fasi, romelic warmoadgens ZiriTad sawvavs am
sadgurebSi. 2006 wlis bolomde, saqarTveloSi bunebrivi airis fasi idga
niSnulze 60 US$/1000m3, magram 2006 wlis bolos es fasi gaormagda da
gaxda 110 US$/1000m3. ufro metic, 2007 wlis gazafxulze es fasi kidev
erTxel gaizarda da mimdinare fasi TiTqmis igive donisaa, rogorc dasavleT
evropaSi da tolia 230 US$/1000m3. es fasi da kaloriuloba 33338kj/m3
warmoadgenda ZiriTad fass arsebuli da axali gazze momuSave Tbosadgurebis
saoperacio xarjebis dadgenaSi. gazis es Rirebuleba da sadgurebis teqnikuri
maxasiaTeblebi TbosadgurebSi gvaZlevs gacilebiT maRal saoperacio xarjs da
moiTxovs Tbosadgurebis dRevadel tarifze gacilebiT maRal tarifs
(daaxloebiT 60 US$/mgvtsT). mniSvnelovania aRiniSnos, rom eleqtroenergiis
importze arsebuli fasebi aris 35 US$/mgvtsT rigis, da mTeli
energosistemis saoperacio xarjebis minimizaciis mizans mivyavarT arsebuli
Tbosadgurebis monawileobis minimumamde dayvanas da maT Secvlas
eleqtorenergiis importiT.
saqarTvelo mdidaria potencialuri hidroenergiis resursebiT. saqarTvelos
teritoriaze registrirebulia 26,000 mdinare. sruli sigrZe daaxloebiT
60,000km-ia. amJamad mdinareTa ekonomikuri potencialis mxolod 25%-ia
aTvisebuli; sruli energiis potenciali aRemateba 80tvtsT, xolo
ekonomikuri potencialia daaxloebiT 27tvtsT.
amJamad hidrosadgurebi iZlevian mTeli gamomuSavebuli eleqtroenergiis 70%.
hidrosadgurebis saSualo generacia saqarTveloSi aris 6tvtsT. saqarTvelos
teritoriis mdinareebze 60 hidrosadguria aSenebuli.
mZlavri hidroenergiis resursebis arseboba ganpirobebulia qveynis mTiani
reliefiT. wylis nakadebi moemarTebian kavkasionis mTebidan da mcire
kavkasionis mTebidan da mokle manZilebze mkveTri dacemis gamo qmnian wylis
uzarmazar potencials. es gansakuTrebiT exeba dasavleT saqarTvelos.
saqarTveloSi udidesi hidrosadguri aris enguri, romelic iZleva
saqarTvelos mTliani energogeneraciis daaxloebiT 44%. 270m simaRlis
enguris kaSxali udidesi TaRisebri kaSxalia msoflioSi.
generaciis gazrdis dagegmvaSi gamoyenebuli arsebuli hidrosadgurebis
ZiriTadi maxasiaTeblebi mocemulia cxrilSi 3.4.
cxrili 3-4. saqarTvelos hidrosadgurebis ZiriTadi maxasiaTeblebi
:
35
# hidrosadguri
dadgmuli
simZlavre
mgvt
saangariSo
generacia
gvtsT
1 enguri HPP 1300 3165 2 varcixe HPP 184 7643 vardnili HPP 340 4444 Jinvali HPP 130 4405 rioni HPP 48 2796 xrami 2 HPP 110 3017 xrami 1 HPP 112 2228 lajanuri HPP 112 2749 gumaTi HPP 66 233
10 zahesi HPP 37 17011 Zevrula HPP 45 13012 Saori HPP 38 11813 xadori HPP 24 13414 sxva 134 455
wina periodi moxmarda arsebuli hidrosadgurebis reabilitacias. msoflio
gamocdilebaze dayrdnobiT, arsebuli hidrosadgurebis reabilitacia,
ekonomiuria da saukeTeso investiciaa. saqarTvelos SemTxvevaSi es kidev ufro
xazgasasmelia. araadeqvaturi saremonto samuSaoebis didi periodis gamo bevri
hidrosadguri gamouyenebadi an nawilobriv gamouyenebadi gaxda. arsebuli
hidrosadgurebis reabilitacia yvelaze sasurvelia agreTve garemosdacviTi
kuTxiTac, radganac es sadgurebi iyeneben farTs, romelic ukve gamoyenebuli
iyo, mosaxleobis axali gadasaxlebebis gareSe. amitomaa rom reabilitacia
aris saukeTeso socialuri, ekonomikuri da garemosdacviTi iurisdiqcia.
hidrosadgurebis reabilitacia agreTve moicavs yvela im struqturis da
sistemis reabilitacias, romelic gamoyenebuli iyo garemosdacvis mizniT da
ekosistemebis aRdgenis mizniT.
kvlevaSi mxedvelobaSi iyo miRebuli arsebuli hidrosadgurebis
reabilitaciis efeqtebi.
im analizisaTvis, romelic Catarda WASP modelis gamoyenebiT, konsultantma
gamoiyena arsebuli hidrosadgurebis Tviuri generaciis monacemebi
gadmocemuli saministros mier, im daSvebiT, rom es monacemebi Seesabameba
arsebuli hidrosadgurebis mosalodnel generacias saSualo hidrologiur
mdgomareobaSi. es Tviuri generaciis monacemebi moicavs gaumjobesebis efeqts,
gamowveuls sareabilitacio saqmoanobiT, romelic cota xnis wins Catarda da
Catardeba uaxloes momavalSi arsebul hidrosadgurebze. es monacemebi
gvaZleven arsebul hidrosagurebze wliuri generaciis cota gansxvavebul
suraTs 2007-2017 wlebSi, rogorc mocemulia cxrilSi 3.5.
:
36
im faqtis gamo, rom momaval dagegmvis periodSi energosistemis operirebis
rTulma simulaciam unda moicvas sxvadasxva hidrologiuri mdgomareobebi,
konsultantma Seafasa arsebuli hidrosadgurebis SesaZlo generaciebis
fluqtuaciebi mdinare enguris bunebrivi nakadebze arsebuli monacemebis
safuZvelze, enguris kaSxlis mdebareobis adgilas 1929-1981 da 1999-2003
wlebSi da engurhesis generacia.
cxrili 3.5. arsebuli hidrosadgurebis generacia saSualo hidrologiur
pirobebSi
wlebi
saSualo generacia
gvtsT
2007 6976 2008 7380 2009 7510 2010 7520 2011 7638 2012 7608 2013 7679 2014 7715 2015 7795 2016 7836 2017 7878 2018 7878 2019 7878 2020 7878 2021 7878
mdinare enguris bunebrivi nakadis Camonadenis Tviuri ganawileba yvelaze mSral
(1969) da yvelaze naleqian (1941) wlebSi da agreTve saSualo naleqian wlebSi
mocemulia naxazze 3.11. am naxazidan cans, rom wyalmovardnebi koncentrirebulia
mais-agvistos periodze, ufro cota wyali modis wlis sxva dros, xolo minimumi
emTxveva dekemberi-Tebervali periods.
:
37
0
100
200
300
400
500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Nat
ural
dis
char
ge (m
3/s)
Minimum Maximum Average
naxazi 3-11 mdinare enguris bunebrivi Camonadenis Tviuri ganawileba
Catarebuli analizis safuZvelze dadginda, rom bunebrivi Camonadenis Tviuri
ganawileba daaxloebiT erTidaigive models mihyveba hidrologiuri mdgomareobis
miuxedavad, rac Cans naxazidan 3-12.
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Qm
onth
/Qan
nual
(%)
Minimum Maximum Average
naxazi 3-12 bunebrivi Camonadenis Tviuri ganawileba
im faqtis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom engurhesis Tviuri generacia misdevs bunebrivi
Camonadenis Tviur ganawilebas (ix. suraTi 3-13) konsultantma dauSva, rom
:
38
engurhesis wliuri SesaZlo generaciis ganawileba Tveebad erTidaigivea yvela
hidrologiur pirobebSi, magram sxvadasxvaa sxvadasxva hidrologiur pirobebSi.
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Months
Mon
thly
dis
trib
utio
n(%
)
Generation Natural inflow
naxazi 3-13 engurhesis wliuri generaciis da bunebrivi Camonadenis Tviuri
ganawileba.
engurhesis wliuri generaciis doneebi, romlebic mosalodnelia mSrali da
naleqiani hidrologiuri mdgomareobebis dros gamoTvlilia warsuli mudmivi
periodebis bunebrivi Camonadenebis statistikuri analizis safuZvelze, mSral
mdgomareobaze yuradrebis gamaxvilebiT, imis gamo rom yvelaze kritikuli
mdgomareoba eleqtroenergiis miwodebaSi mosalodnelia mSrali hidrologiuri
mdgomareobis dros.
konsultantma gamoiTvala, rom mSrali wlebi 10%-iani xdomilebis albaTobiT
arian wlebi, roca wliuri Camonadeni saSualo mudmivi Camonadenis daaxloebiT
76%-ia. es Sefardeba gamoyenebuli iqna SesaZlo generaciis gansazRvrisaTvis
arsebul (da axal) hidrosadgurebze mSral hidrologiur pirobebSi 10%-iani
xdomilebis albaTobiT.
Tu mxedvelobaSi miviRebT im faqts, rom wyali, romelic moedineba naleqian
hidrologiur pirobebSi, SeiZleba srulad ar iyos gamoyenebuli energiis
generaciisaTvis (rezervuaris SezRudvebis da sadgurSi meqanikuri mowyobilobebis
SezRudulobis gamo), konsultantma dauSva, rom Tundac naleqian hidrologiur
pirobebSi, sadguris generacia iqneba igive, rac saSualo hidrologiur pirobebSi.
:
39
yvela zemoTTqmulis mxedvelobaSi miRebiT, aseve imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom
engurhesis generacia warmoadgens saqarTvelos hidrosadgurebis generaciis
mniSvnelovan nawils da saqarTveloSi yvela mdinares aqvs Camodinebis igive Tviuri
ganawileba rac engurs, konsultantma gamoiyena Semdegi albaTobebi sxvadasxva
hidrologiuri mdgomareobebisaTvis:
saSualo hidrologiuri mdgomareobis xdomilebis albaToba aris 90%
mSrali hidrologiuri mdgomareobis xdomilebis albaToba aris 10%
naleqiani hidrologiuri mdgomareobis xdomilebis albaToba aris 0%
mxedvelobaSi iqna miRebuli, rom Tviuri generacia yvela arsebuli
hidrosadgurisaTvis (informacia mowodebulia energetikis saministros mier)
asaxavs SesaZlo generacias saSualo hidrologiur pirobebSi.
adre gansazRvruli daSvebebis safuZvelze, konsultantma daagenerira monacemebi
arsebuli hidrosadgurebis SesaZlo generaciebisaTvis yoveli wlisTvis 2007-2017
periodSi, im daSvebiT, rom 2017 wlis Semdeg saqarTvelos arsebuli
hidrosadgurebis generacia igive iqneba, rac 2017 wels. es monacemebi mocemulia
naxazze 3.5, xolo 2017 wlis Tviuri generacia saSualo da mSrali
hidrologiuri pirobebis dros mocemulia naxazze 3-14.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Mon
thly
gen
erat
ion
(GW
h)
Aver Dry
naxazi 3-14 2017 wlis Tviuri generacia
:
40
4. momavali moTxovnileba eleqtroenergiaze da
energiaze
momavalSi energiaze da eleqroenergiaze moTxovnilebis prognozirebis mizniT
gamoyenebul iqna ori meTodi:
zemodan-qvemoT meTodi, romelic dafuZnebulia demografiul da
makroekonomikur ganviTarebisa, gamoxatuli mTliani Sida produqtis (mSp
erT sul mosaxleze) saxiT, da energiisa da eleqtroenergiis Sefasebuli
moxmarebis (tona navTobis eqvivalenti (toe) erT sulze, kvtsT erT sulze,
energiis intensivoba), urTierTkavSirze; es meTodi gvTavazobs am kavSiris
momavalSi kidev ufro gaZlierebas (elastiuroba); da
detaluri seqtorebis doneze qvemodan-zeviT analizi, romelic fokusirebas
axdens seqtoris SefasebiT zrdaze, energiis moTxovnilebaze da
eleqtroenergiis wilze srul moTxovnil energiaSi.
zemodan-qvemoT meTodi farTod gamoiyeneba maSin, roca seqtoris Sesaxeb
statistika da ganviTarebis gegmebi ar
moipoveba. Tumca, zemodan-qvemoT meTodi
moiTxovs makro-ekonomikis politikis
gansazRvras.
energiaze adreuli periodebis
prognozebis Sedegebi da eleqtroenergiis
moxmareba gamoiyeneba am analizSi
wamoyenebuli prognozirebis meTodis
sisworis Sesamowmeblad.
Tumca, cota xnis winaT saqarTvelom
miiRo axali energetikuli politika14,15,16
da kanonmdebloba17, Seiqmna mravali
Rirebuli strategiuli dokumenti iseTi
saerTaSoriso organizaciebis daxmarebiT,
rogoricaa USAID18,19, KfW20 and OECD21da
nacionaluri oficialuri statistikuri monacemebi miesadaga saerTaSoriso
14eleqtroenergiis generaciis da moxmarebis prognozi 2017 wlamde. bunebrivi airis
moxmarebis prognozi 2015 wlamde, saqarTvelos energetikis saministro, 200615saqarTvelos parlamentis rezolucia saxelmwifo politikis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebis
Sesaxeb saqarTvelos energoseqtorSi, saqarTvelos parlamenti, 9 ivnisi, 2006 16saqarTvelos energoseqtoris samoqmedo gegma 2005-2008
17saqarTvelos kanoni eleqtroenergiisa da bunebrivi airis Sesaxeb, Sesworebulia 2005
18 Energy balance of the power sector of Georgia, Part 1: Analyses and proposals, and Part 2: Balances from 1960 to 2006, USAID, August 31, 2006 19 Natural gas strategy for Georgia, Part 1: Analyses and proposals, and Part 2: Economic and geopolitical context, USAID, May 6, 2006 20 Regional Power Transmission Extension Plan for Caucasus Countries 21 Debt-for-Environment Swap in Georgia: Potential Project pipelines for the Expenditure Programme, OECD, 2004
saqarTvelos winaSe mravali seriozuli
problema idga 1990 wlidan dawyebuli,
ramac gamoiwvia ekonomikis Zler dacema,
mniSvnelovnad Semcirda da kidec gaCerda
zogierTi samrewvelo dargebis muSaoba,
moxda ekonomikis restruqturizacia,
Semcirda energiaze moTxovnileba,
arastabiluri da arasakmarisi gaxda
eleqtroenergiis mowodeba. sabazro
ekonomikaze am gadasvlas Tan axlda sxva
problemebic, ramac energiis moxmarebis
warsuli indikatorebi da tendenciebi
naklebad gamoyenebadi gaxada momavlis
prognozirebisaTvis. es ar aris marto
saqarTvelosaTvis damaxasiaTebeli, aramed
zogadia yvela gardamavali ekonmikis
SemTxvevaSi.
:
41
standartebs. am kvlevebSi mocemulia energiis moxmarebis da warmoebis istoriuli
tendenciebi, riTac Seqmnilia gacilebiT saimedo sainformacio baza momavali
prognozebisaTvis da kvelevebi iZleva miTiTebebs momavalSi energiis moxmarebis
sxvadasxva scenarebis Sesaxeb.
moTxovnilebis menejmenti/energiis dazogva
TiToeuli seqtorisaTvis mTliani energiis mommarebis prognozireba ar Sedis am
kvlevis moculobaSi. Tumca, eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis prognozireba Znelad
SeiZleba ganxorcieldes, sxva energiis matareblebze moTxovnilebis prognozorebis
mxedvelobaSi miRebis gareSe, rogoricaa magaliTad eleqtroenergiis Canacvleba
bunebrivi airiT saWmlis momzadebisTvis, wylis gasacxeleblad da gaTbobisaTvis,
an SeSis Canacvleba eleqtroenergiiT gaTbobis mizniT (raTqmaunda
rekomendirebuli ar aris, magram adgili aqvs garkveul viTarebebSi), da sxva.
energiis dazogvis da moTxovnilebis marTvis efeqtebi unda gaanalizdes mTeli
energiis moxmarebis konteqstSi da ara mxolod eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis
gaTvaliswinebiT, rac ar warmoadgens am kvlevis sagans. energoefeqturobis
RonisZiebani (quCebis ganaTeba, wylis momaragebis sistemebi, saxlis
eleqtromowyobilobani, ...) ar warmoadgens am kvlevis sagans. aseve mniSvnelovania
aRiniSnos, rom sxva, eleqtroenergiis Rirebulebis msgavs faqtorebs ar aqvT
ufro mniSvnelovani zegavlena eleqtroenergiis moTxovnilebaze, vidre
energoefeqturobis zomebs. energiaze yovelmxrivi moTxovnilebis, energiis
menejmentis an energiis grZelvadiani ganviTarebis kvlevebis naklebobis gamo
arsebuli seqtoris energoefeqturobis Sefaseba da energodazogvis mizniT
dasanergi zomebis Sesaxeb rekomendaciebi mxolod zogadi iqneba. Tumca, energiis
(efeqturobis) mravalmxrivi kvlevebis Catarebis saWiroeba cxadia da Cven
rekomendacia vuwevT mis momzadebas.
am kvlevis miznisavis kritikulad iqna ganxiluli arsebuli pronozebi mTlian
pirveladi energis wyaroze, bunebriv airze, navTobze, qvanaxSirze, SeSaze da aseve
eleqtroenergiaze, da Catarda momavali moTxovnilebebis Seswavla
eleqtrosimZlavrebsa da eleqtroenergiaze.
4.1. 2005 wlamde ganviTareba
energiis moxmarebis cvlilebis mamoZravebeli Zalebia demografiuli ganviTareba,
ekonomikuri ganviTareba gamoxatuli mTliani adgilobrivi produqtis saxiT,
ekonomikis stuqtura, eleqtoqselsa da gazis ganawilebis qselTan kavSiri,
tarifebi energomatareblebze da sxva. zogierTi es mamoZravebeli Zala ganxiluli
iqneba qvemoT.
mosaxleoba
:
42
1991 – 2005ww. periodSi centraluri
xelisuflebis mier kontrolirebad
teritoriebze mosaxleobis odenoba 14
weliwadSi Semcirda 5.4 milionidan 4.3
milionamde, kerZod 1.1 milioniT (sawyisi
raodenobis 20%)
mosaxleobis raodenoba saarTveloSi mcirdeboda 1989 wlidan. ori teritoria
(afxazTis avtonomiuri respublika da samxreT oseTis yofili avtonomiuri olqi)
amJamad ar kontroldeba centraluri xelisuflebis mier (1993 wlidan).
mosaxleobis zrdis suraTi mocemulia naxazze 4-1 orive SemTxvevisaTvis – iq
sadac centraluri mmarTveloba xorcieldeba da saqarTvelos mTeli
mosaxleobisaTvis.
mosaxleobis matebis zoma 1898-2006 wlebSi iyo uaryofiTi (-0.90%), aseve
uaryofiTia mosaxleobis raodenobis
zrda teritoriebze, romelic
kontroldeba centrluri
xelisuflebis mier (-1.20%). orive
teritoriaze mosaxleobis zrdis
tendenciebi mocemlia naxazze 4-1.
samwuxarod, Zveli tendenciebis
eqstrapolacia ar SeiZleba iqnas
gamoyenebuli momavali ganviTarebisaTvis arc agreTve ar arsebobs momavalSi
mosaxleobis zrdis araviTari oficialuri prognozi.
mTliani Sida produqti
saqarTvelom ganicada ekonomikis Zlieri dacema igive periodSi. dacemis tempi
gansakuTrebiT maRali iyo 1990 wlebis dasawyisSi, miaRwia ra minimums 1993 wels.
1993 wlidan mTliani Sida poduqtis aRmavali tendencia aSkaraa. 2005 wels
mTlianma Sida produqtma miaRwia 1992 wlis maCveneblis 35%-s. Tumca, 2005 wels
mSp erT mosaxleze miaRwia 1992 wlis donis 40% (2800 dolari) (cxrili 4.1,
naxazi 4-2).
:
43
naxazi 4-1: mosaxleobis zrda saqarTveloSi 1989-2006 wlebi
cxrili 4-1: mosaxleoba da mSp-s zrda 1990-2005 wlebSi
weli mosaxleoba
aTasebSi
mosaxleobis
zrdis %
GDmSp
milioni
US$
mSp zrdis
%
mSp erT
mosaxleze
US$
mSp- %
zrda erT
mosaxleze
1990 ara ara
1991 5420.0 ara
1992 5440.0 0.4% 15252.0 2803.71993 5410.0 -0.6% 764.0 -95.0% 141.2 -95.0%1994 5380.0 -0.6% 823.0 7.7% 153.0 8.3%1995 5350.0 -0.6% 1897.0 130.5% 354.6 131.8%1996 5330.0 -0.4% 3046.0 60.6% 571.5 61.2%1997 4558.4 -14.5% 3573.0 17.3% 783.8 37.2%1998 4504.9 -1.2% 3620.0 1.3% 803.6 2.5%1999 4469.8 -0.8% 2803.0 -22.6% 627.1 -22.0%
saqarTvelos mosaxleoba 1989-2006
centr. mTavroba = 5.5028x 2 - 177.34x + 5764.7R2 = 0.9241
sul = 0.662x3 - 16.017x2 + 29.878x + 5448.9R2 = 0.9759
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
5200
5400
5600
5800
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
centr. mTavroba sul Poly. (centr. mTavroba)
Poly. (sul)
:
44
2000 4435.2 -0.8% 3042.0 8.5% 685.9 9.4%2001 4401.4 -0.8% 3201.0 5.2% 727.3 6.0%2002 4371.5 -0.7% 3292.0 2.8% 753.1 3.5%2003 4342.6 -0.7% 3984.0 21.0% 917.4 21.8%2004 4315.2 -0.6% 4453.0 11.8% 1031.9 12.5%2005 4321.5 0.1% 4809.2 8.0% 1112.9
naxazi 4-2: mosaxleoba da mTliani Sida produqti
eleqtrogeneracia da moxmareba
saqarTvelo yovelTvis iyo eleqtroenergiis importiori qveyana da ar hqonda
saSualeba daekmayofilebina eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnileba sakuTari generaciis
xarjze (cxrili 4.2). mTlian mowodebaSi importis wili 1990 wels iyo 18% da
2005 wels es wili TiTqmis igive iyo (15%). Tumca, amJamad eleqtrogeneracia da
moxmarebac orjer naklebia vidre 1990 wels.
cxrili 4.2: eleqtroenergiis balansebi saqarTveloSi 1990-2002 wlebSi
weli importi eqsporti
generaciis
qselSi
miwodeba
qselSi
sruli
miwodeba
danakargeb
i moxmareba
1990 4373.6 1169.0 14246.0 17450.6 2643.6 14807.01991 2558.1 837.2 12372.1 14093.0 1860.5 12232.61992 1046.5 34.9 13279.1 14290.7 2790.7 11500.01993 1139.5 430.2 9988.4 10697.7 2674.4 8023.31994 848.8 46.5 6860.5 7662.8 2314.0 5348.8
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1990 19911992 1993 19941995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
US$
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
US$
mosaxleoba aTasi mSp sabazro fasiT, mln US$ mSp sulze US$
:
45
1995 814.0 139.5 6930.2 7604.7 1907.0 5697.71996 558.1 430.2 7314.0 7441.9 732.6 6709.31997 616.3 279.1 7151.2 7488.4 883.7 6604.71998 418.6 511.6 8081.4 7988.4 1081.4 6907.01999 430.2 383.7 8069.8 8116.3 1093.0 7023.32000 616.3 209.3 7441.9 7848.8 976.7 6872.12001 883.7 523.3 6941.9 7302.3 1116.3 6186.02002 825.6 244.2 7255.8 7837.2 1081.4 6755.82003 848.8 104.7 7162.8 7907.0 1058.1 6848.82004 1209.3 0.0 6697.7 7907.0 918.6 6988.42005 1395.3 116.3 7104.7 8383.7 976.7 7407.0
Electricity consumption & population index, and el. consumption (kWh/pc)
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Inde
x (1
990=
Inde
x 10
0)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
kWhe
pc
Electricity consumption index (1990=100) Population index (1990=100)
Electricity consumption per head, kWh/year
naxazi 4-3: eleqtroenergiis sruli da erT sul mosaxleze (per capita) moxmareba da mosaxleobis odenoba (1990=indeqsi 100)
eleqtroenergiis moxmareba seqtorebis mixedviT 1970-2005 wlebSi
seqtorebis mixedviT eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis struqtura mocemulia cxrilSi
4.3 da naxazebze 4-4 da 4-5. saqarTvelo eleqtroenergiis wminda eqsportiori iyo
mxolod 1980 wlamde da Semdgom gaxda wminda importiori qveyana.
eleqtroenergiis danakargebi 1990 wlamde iyo 15%, rac tipiuri iyo im
droisaTvis. 1990-ian wlebSi danakargebi sagrZnoblad gaizarda da miaRwia 25%-s.
Tumca, es danakargebi moicavda eleqtrosistemis teqnikur da arateqnikur
danakargebs.
cxrili 4.3: miwodebisa da moxmarebis struqtura seqtorebis mixedviT
1970-2005 wlebSi (gvtsT)
:
46
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005sruli
generacia
8964.2 11603.4 14687.0 14421.3 14246.0 6930.2 7441.9 7104.7
wminda
importi/eqsporti
-49.1 -169.0 -743.6 2336.4 3204.6 674.4 407.0 1279.1
qselSi sruli
miwodeba
8915.1 11434.4 13943.4 16757.7 17450.6 7604.7 7848.8 8383.7
danakargebi 1321.6 1656.0 2245.7 2494.6 2643.6 1907.0 976.7 976.7danakargebis
wili %
14.82% 14.48% 16.11% 14.89% 15.15% 25.08% 12.44% 11.65%
sruli moxmareba 7593.5 9778.4 11697.7 14263.1 14807.0 5697.7 6872.1 7407.0mrewveloba 4831.0 6058.4 6895.7 8278.2 8054.4 1046.5 930.2 1220.9
sofl. meurneoba 437.1 602.0 1108.1 1447.1 2114.3 337.2 418.6 325.6transporti 587.0 756.0 818.8 1046.9 1040.1 430.2 488.4 593.0mosaxleoba 885.4 1333.0 1769.9 2222.8 2315.1 2604.7 4534.9 4895.3
sxva 853.0 1029.0 1105.2 1268.1 1283.1 1279.1 500.0 372.2
eleqtroenergiis moxmarebas zrdas dadebiTi tendencia aqvs 1970 wlidan 1990
wlamde; Semdgom 1990 wlis dasawyisSi Semcirda 50%-iT da isev nela izrdeba
(naxazi 4.4)
naxazi 4-4: eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis struqtura seqtorebis
mixedviT 1970-2005 wlebSi
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
100001100012000130001400015000160001700018000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
eleqtroenergiis moxmarebasaqarTveloSi (gvtsT))
danakargi
sxva
mosaxl.
transp.
sof.meur.
mrewveloba
:
47
naxazi 4-5: seqtorebis wili eleqtroenergiis mTlian moxmarebaSi
1990-ani wlebis pirvel naxevarSi moxmarebis struqtura dramatulad Seicvala.
1990 wlamde eleqtroenergiis moxmarebaSi mrewveloba dominirebda, xolo
mosaxleobis wili mxolod 15% iyo. Semdgom ekonomiuri kolafsis damo situacia
mTlianad Seicvala, warmoebis Semcirebisa da da mrewvelobis zogierTi dargis
srulad gaCerebis gamo. navTobproduqtebis da bunebrivi airis importi ufro
Zviri gaxda da mosaxleoba, mrewvelobac ki, sxva sawvavidan gadaerTo
eleqtroenergiaze. aman gamoiwvia moxmarebis struqturis cvlileba da amJamad
mosaxleobis wili 58%-ia. eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis struqtura wlidan wlamde
mocemulia 4-6 naxazze da 4.4 cxrilSi.
naxazi 4-6: eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis struqtura 1991-2005 wlebSi
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis struqtura (%)
sxva
mosaxleoba
transporti
sof.meurn.
mrewveloba
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
mrewveloba transportit sofl. meurneoba
sax/mosax. momsaxureoba mosaxleoba energiis ar-momxmarebeli
sxva momxmarebeli
:
44
cxrili 4.4: eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis struqtura seqtorebis mixedviT 1991-2005 wlebSi
sxva seqtorebi
weli
sruli
moxmareba
mrewveloba
transporti
sul sxva
seqtorebi
soflis
meurneoba
saxelmwifo
da
mosaxleobis
servisebi
mosaxleoba
energiis ar-
momxmarebeli
sxva
momxmareblebi
1991
1223
2.6
4488
.481
4.0
6930
.272
0.9
1604
.744
76.7
0.0
127.
919
9211
500.
0 37
20.9
616.
371
62.8
1453
.520
34.9
3255
.80.
041
8.6
1993
8023
.3
2151
.260
4.7
5267
.493
0.2
686.
030
00.0
348.
830
2.3
1994
5348
.8
1395
.358
1.4
3372
.134
8.8
465.
125
58.1
0.0
0.0
1995
5697
.7
1046
.543
0.2
4220
.933
7.2
1162
.826
04.7
0.0
116.
319
9667
09.3
97
6.7
430.
253
02.3
383.
727
9.1
4162
.80.
047
6.7
1997
6604
.7
883.
745
3.5
5267
.439
5.3
302.
341
27.9
0.0
441.
919
9869
07.0
88
3.7
476.
755
46.5
418.
634
8.8
4360
.50.
041
8.6
1999
7023
.3
918.
651
1.6
5593
.039
5.3
360.
543
72.1
0.0
465.
120
0068
72.1
93
0.2
488.
454
53.5
418.
630
2.3
4534
.90.
019
7.7
2001
6186
.0
1023
.350
0.0
4662
.824
4.2
162.
841
86.0
0.0
69.8
2002
6755
.8
1104
.754
6.5
5104
.725
5.8
186.
045
69.8
0.0
93.0
2003
6848
.8
1127
.953
4.9
5186
.027
9.1
197.
746
04.7
0.0
104.
720
0469
88.4
11
51.2
569.
852
67.4
290.
722
0.9
4639
.50.
011
6.3
2005
7407
.0
1220
.959
3.0
5593
.032
5.6
232.
648
95.3
0.0
139.
5
:
45
eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis zrdis Sefardeba mSp-s zrdasTan (elastiuroba)
mocemulia naxazze 4-7. cxadia, rom ar arsebobs tendencia da es monacemebi ver
gamodgeba eleqtromoxmarebis prognozirebis mizniT.
naxazi 4-7: mSp-s elastiuroba da eleqtroenergiis moxmareba
4.2. samomavlo ganviTarebis prognozi
mosaxleoba
Znelia gansWvrito mosaxleobis momavali zrda, gansakuTrebiT ki kvlevis mTel
periodze (2021weli). ekonomiur zrdasTan erTad, rac cxadia uaxloes warsulSi,
migraciis tendenciam SeiZleba Seicvalos mimarTuleba, kerZod wminda gadinebis
migraciis nacvlad SeiZleba adgili hqondes wminda Semodinebis migracias.
ararealisturad Cans, rom mTeli emigrirebuli mosaxleoba ukan dabrundeba
sxvadasxva mizezebis gamo. Tu mTeli ojaxi wavida emigraciaSi sakmao xnis win, maT
albaT unda mogvarebuli hqondeT mowyobasa da samuSaosTan dakavSirebuli
sakiTxebi. am kvlevis miznebisaTvis gakeTda mosaxleobis odenobis bunebrivi
gazrdis (naxazi 4-8) da wminda migraciis (naxazi 4-9) prognozebi.
elastiuroba (eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis zoma/mSp zoma)
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
:
46
naxazi 4-8: bunebrivi zrdis prognozi
naxazi 4-9: wminda migraciis prognozi
mSp-s zrda
arsebobs mTliani Sida produqtis mravalmxrivi zrdis prognozi22 2005-2015
periodSi. optimistur scenarSi wliuri realuri mSp-s zrdis tempi 4.5%-ia 2001
wels, 5.4% - 2002 wels, 5% - 2003 wels, da 6% - 2004 wels. SefasebiTi
realuri mSp-s zrdis tempi 2007-2009 wlebSi aris 7% da 8% - 2010-2015
wlebSi (naxazi 4-10). arsebobs agreTve pesimisturi scenari, romelSic relauri
mSp zrdis tempi stabiluri rCeba 5%-is doneze mTeli 2006-2015 wlebSi.
22bunebrivi airis strategia saqarTveloSi, nawili 1: analizi da winadadebebi, da nawili 2:
ekonomikuri da geopolitikuri konteqsti, USAID, May 6, 2006
bunebrivi zrda – warsuli da momavali, aTasi
y = 0.0005x 4 - 0.0352x 3 + 0.9957x 2 - 11.844x + 49.646R2 = 0.885
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
aTasi
bunebrivi zrda/kleba Poly. (bunebrivi zrda/kleba
)
wminda migracia – warsuli da momavali, aTasi
y = 0.0202x3 - 1.3686x2 + 29.109x - 174.47R2 = 0.8836
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
aTasi
migrir. Poly. (migrireb)
:
47
Real GDP growth forecast
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1600020
01
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Rea
l GD
P, m
ln U
S$
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Rea
l GD
P pc
, US$
Real GDP, mln US$ Real GDP pc growth, US$
naxazi 4-10: mSp-s zrdis prognozi
es kvleva moicavs periods romlis
dasasrulia 2021 weli da realuri mSp-s
zrdis tempi gamoyenebuli iyo amave
periodze (2021 wlamde). grZelvadian
periodSi realuri 8 % iani mSp-s zrdis
tempi Zalian maRalia da msoflio gamocdilebis mixedviT mxolod erTeuli qveynis
ekonomikas SeuZlia stabilurad mSp-s zrdis aseTi maRali tempis SenarCuneba
(CineTi, taivani, koreis respublika). ufro realisturad Cans rom 10 wliani
Zalian dinamikuri ekonomikuri zrdis Semdeg mSp-s zrdis done unda Semcirdes.
zrdis SefasebiTi sidide 2016-2020 da 2021 wlisaTvis Sesabamisad 6% da 5% - a.
SegviZlia davaskvnaT, rom Tu ekonomika ganviTardeba aseTi optimisturi scenariT
2021 wels igi miaRwevs 1991 wlis dones.
zemodan-qvemoT meTodi pirveladi energiis moxmarebis prognozirebisaTvis
energointensivoba, romelic mTlian pirvelad energiis (TPES) moxmarebasa da
mTlian Sida produqts (mSp) Soris damokidebulebas asaxavs Cveulebriv gamoisaxeba
tona navTobis eqvivalentSi (toe) mSp-s yovel 1000 US$-ze. igi xSirad gamoiyeneba ganviTarebis SefasebisaTvis.
energointensivoba yofili sabWoTa kavSiris sxvadasxva qveynebisTvis farTo
SualedSi icvleba. samrewvelo qveynebi ganviTarebuli mZime mrewvelobiT,
romlebic warmoadgenen wminda pirveladi energiis eqsportiorebs, rogoricaa
ruseTi (2.9 toe/1000US$ 2002 wels), belorusia (1.73), yazaxeTi (2.0), azerbaijani
(1.73), uzbekeTi (3.35), ukraina (3.37) 3-4-jer maRali energointensivoba hqondaT
vidre wminda pirveladi energiis importiorebs, rogoricaa somxeTi (0.74),
estoneTi (0.75), saqarTvelo (0,73), litva (0,63) da Llatvia (0,46). meore jgufi
ufro gardamavali ekonomikis mqone balkaneTis qveynebis msgavsia (0.8-1.2
realuri mSp-s saSualo zrdis tempi
2005-2020 wlebSi ufro realisturi
SefasebiT iqneba 7%
:
48
toe/1000US$). informaciisaTvis asaRniSnavia rom, energointensivoba imave wlisTvis
germaniaSi iyo 0.12, safrangeTSi 0.12, espaneTSi 0.18, sloveniaSi 0.28 da ungreTSi
0.46.
momavali energointensivobis prognozi damokidebulia mraval faqtorze, romlebic
gavlenas axdenen energointensivobaze. IEA winaswarmetyvelebs energointensivobis
Semcirebas ganviTarebul sabazro ekonomikaSi (gacilebiT naklebi), da zrdas
gardamaval ekonomikebSi. energointensivoba gardamaval ekonomikaSi SeiZleba
wliurad Semcirdes -3.3%-iT 2005-2010 wlebSi, -1.8%-iT 2011-2020 wlebSi da -
1.4%-iT 2021 wels. msgavsi midgomis gamoyenebiT 200623 wels saqarTveloSi
gakeTda pirveladi energiis wyaros gamoyenebis prognozi. energointensivoba
saqarTveloSi unda Semcirdes 0.78-dan 2002 wels 0.54-mde 2005 wels, 0.45 –
2010 wels, 0.4 – 2015 wels da 0.35 – 2021 wels. mocemuli periodis bolos
saqarTvelos energointensivoba orjer ufro maRali unda iyos vidre
ganviTarebuli sabazro ekonomikebSi, maSin roca 2002 wels is 4-jer maRali iyo.
pirveladi energiis wyaros gamoyeneba gasazRvrulia 2006-2020 wlebisTvis. (naxazi
4-11). mocemul scenarSi pirveladi energiis wyaros gamoyeneba gaizrdeboda 4.3Mtoe -dan 7.79 Mtoe-mde 2020 wels saSualo wliuri zrdis doniT 3.8% - 2005-
2020 periodSi.
da bolos, progozebi pirveladi energiis wyaros, realuri mSp-s, mosaxleobis da
aseve mSp da pirveladi energiis mniSvnelobebis erT sul mosaxleze – Sejamebulia
4.5 cxrilSi. mosaxleobis raodenoba mosalodnelia rom unda gaizardos saSualo
wliuri zrdis doniT 0.5%, rac migviyvans 4.7 milion adamianamde 2021 wels.
realuri mSp gaizrdeba saSualod 7%-iT da miaRwevs 14.4 miliard aSS dollars
2021 wels. mTliani pirveladi energiis moxmareba gaizrdeba 3.8%-iT da miaRwevs
8.09 Mtoe 2021 wels.
sainteresoa agreTve Semdegi indikatorebi; mTliani pirveladi energia erT sul
mosaxleze miaRwevs 1.72 toe, romelic daaxoebiTd orjer naklebi iqneba vidre EU-15 analogiuri sididze amave droisaTvis. mSp erT sul mosaxleze mTlianad
aRdgeba 1991 wlis doneze. magram energointensivoba Semcirdeba 3.3%-iT da
miaRwevs 0.562. energointensivoba kvlavindebulad maRali darCeba.
siRaribis Semcirebis programis realur scenaris mixedviT mTliani pirveladi
energiis moxmareba gacilebiT ufor nela gaizrdeba - daaxloebiT saSualod 2%-
iT. mTliani pirveladi energiis moxmarebam erT sul mosaxleze unda miaRwios
mxolod 1.29 toe, romelic 3-jer naklebia vidre EU-15 qveynebis dRevandel
monacemze. energointensivoba mniSvnelovnad Semcirdeba – saSualod 4.7%-iT da
miaRwevs 0.42 toe 1000 US$-ze. miuxedavad amisa, igi mainc orjer maRali iqneba
vidre ganviTarebuli sabazro ekonomikis mosalodnel energointensivobze.
23 bunebrivi airis strategia saqarTvelosaTvis, nawili 1, analizi da winadadebani, USAID, 2006
:
49
naxazi 4-11. mTliani pirveladi energiis wyaros moxmarebis
prognozi 2020 wlamde
egreTwodebuli siRaribis daZlevis programis realisturi scenari zedmetad
ambiciuri Cans.
zemodan-qvemoT meTodi eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis prognozirebisaTvis.
TPES moxmarebis nawinaswarmetyvelebi scenari saqarTveloSi
4.3
7.79
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
miliardi toe
pesimisturi scenari realisturi scenari
optimisturi scenari SemoTavazebuli scenari
eleqtroenergiaze ZiriTadi moTxovnis prognozirebisaTvis mxedvelobaSi
viRebT mosaxleobis raodenobas, realistur mSp-s da mTliani pirveladi
energiis wyaros saprognozo monacemebs. agreTve parametrebis Semdeg
mniSvnelobebs vgulisxmobT:
mosaxleobis zrdis siswrafe 0.5%
realuri mSp-s zrda 7%
eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnis elastiuroba mSp-s zrdasTan
mimarTebaSi 0.45%
eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis saSualo zrdis done 2005-2020 wlebSi
unda iyos 3%. eleqtroenergiis mTliani danakargebi (gadacema da
ganawileba) igulisxmeba, rom 8% 2005-2014 wlebSi da 6% 2015-2021
wlebSi.
:
50
cxrili 4-5:
TPES
, realuri mSp da energointensivoba
SeTavazebuli scenari
realisturi siRaribis daZlevis programis scenari
weli
mosaxl
eoba
aTasi
realu
ri mSp
mln
$
realuri
mSp erT
sulze
$ TP
ES
-,
milioni
toe
TPES
sulze,
toe
Eenergointen
sivoba (E
I) (to
e/10
00U
S$)
TPE
S -,
milioni
toe
TPES
sulze,
toe
Eenergointensivob
a (E
I) (to
e/10
00U
S$)
2001
44
01.4
32
01
727
2002
43
71.5
31
53
721
2003
43
42.6
36
40
838
2004
43
15.2
38
75
898
2005
43
21.5
46
15
1068
4.
31.
000.
932
4.3
1.00
0.93
2006
44
01.3
49
38
1122
4.
571.
040.
925
4.35
0.
990.
8820
07
4430
.4
5284
11
93
4.85
1.09
0.91
84.
41
1.00
0.83
2008
44
40.5
56
54
1273
5.
121.
150.
906
4.46
1.
000.
7920
09
4452
.7
6049
13
59
5.4
1.21
0.89
34.
52
1.02
0.75
2010
44
65.9
67
81
1518
5.
671.
270.
836
4.57
1.
020.
6720
11
4481
.1
7323
16
34
5.9
1.32
0.80
64.
69
1.05
0.64
2012
44
98.1
79
09
1758
6.
131.
360.
775
4.81
1.
070.
6120
13
4516
.5
8542
18
91
6.36
1.41
0.74
54.
93
1.09
0.58
2014
45
38.9
92
25
2033
6.
591.
450.
714
5.06
1.
110.
5520
15
4565
.4
9964
21
82
6.81
1.49
0.68
35.
18
1.13
0.52
2016
45
92.6
10
761
2343
7.
011.
530.
651
5.20
1.
130.
4820
17
4620
.0
1140
6 24
69
7.2
1.56
0.63
15.
35
1.16
0.47
2018
46
47.0
12
091
2602
7.
41.
590.
612
5.52
1.
190.
4620
19
4671
.0
1281
6 27
44
7.6
1.63
0.59
35.
69
1.22
0.44
2020
46
90.5
13
585
2896
7.
791.
660.
573
5.89
1.
250.
4320
21
4706
.5
1440
0 30
60
8.09
1.72
0.56
26.
09
1.29
0.42
saSualo
2005
-202
0 0.
5%
7.0%
6.
8 3.
83.
3-3
.0%
2.0%
1.
5%-4
.7%
:
51
cxrili 4-6: eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis da energiis miwodebis
prognozi 2021 wlamde
weli mosaxleoba
aTasi
realuri mSp,milioni US$
mSp erT
sulze, US$
eleqtoener
giaze
moTxovnile
ba gvtsT
eleqtroene
rgiis
sruli
danakargebi
gvtsT
qselSi
miwodebuli
sruli
eleqtroene
rgia gvtsT
2005 4321.5 4615.0 1067.9 7407.0 976.7 8383.72006 4401.3 4938.1 1122.0 7434.3 646.5 8080.82007 4430.4 5283.7 1192.6 7667.9 666.8 8334.62008 4440.5 5653.6 1273.2 7908.7 687.7 8596.42009 4452.7 6049.3 1358.6 8157.2 709.3 8866.52010 4465.9 6781.0 1518.4 8413.4 731.6 9145.02011 4481.1 7323.5 1634.3 8677.7 754.6 9432.32012 4498.1 7909.4 1758.4 8950.3 778.3 9728.62013 4516.5 8542.1 1891.3 9231.5 802.7 10034.22014 4538.9 9225.5 2032.5 9521.4 828.0 10349.42015 4565.4 9963.5 2182.4 9820.5 626.8 10447.42016 4592.6 10760.6 2343.0 10129.0 646.5 10775.62017 4620.0 11406.2 2468.9 10447.2 666.8 11114.12018 4647.0 12090.6 2601.8 10775.4 687.8 11463.22019 4671.0 12816.0 2743.7 11113.9 709.4 11823.32020 4690.5 13585.0 2896.3 11463.0 731.7 12194.72021 4706.5 14400.1 3059.6 11823.1 754.7 12577.82005-2020
zrda, % 0.5 7.0 6.4 3.1 -0.11% 2.78%
Sesabamisi indikatorebis SemuSavebis da eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis prognozi
aseve mocemulia naxazze 4-12
:
52
naxazi 4-12: eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis prognozi 2021 wlamde
eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis SemoTavazebuli prognozis Sedareba sxva
arsebul prognozebTan.
arsebobs mravali saprognozo monacemi eleqtroenergize moTxovnilebis Sesaxeb,
romlebic miRebulia sxvadasxva kvlevebSi da aseve arsebobs saqarTvelos
energetikis saministros saprognozo monacemebi (naxazi 4-13). Isini,
cxadia,gansxvavdebian gamoyenebuli teqnikiT da meTodologiiT, drois periodiT
(ZiriTadad 2020 weli) da gakeTebuli daSvebebiT. isini prognozireben
eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis zrdis sxvadasxva dones Sesabamisi periodisaTvis.
unda aRiniSnos, rom yvela es saprognozo monacemi SemuSavda sxvadasxva wlebSi.
Cans, rom gardamaval qveynebSi, romleTac miekuTvneba saqarTvelo, ganviTarebis
mokle periodisa da damatebiT arsebuli mravali ara-energetikuli da ara-
ekonomikuri problemis arsebobis gamo, prognozirebisas gakeTebul daSvebebi
gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovan rols TamaSoben.
miiRo ra mxedvelobaSi Sefasebuli ekonomikuri zrdis Sesabamisi moTxovnilebis
zrda eleqtroenergiaze da am moTxovnilebis Semcireba, 2001 wels, doqtorma
i.SeyrilaZem SeimuSava eleqtroenergiis moTxovnilebis scenari, rogorc rigi
arawrfivi procesebis Sedegi, kerZod:
eleqtroenergiis safasuris amoRebis donis gaumjobeseba iwvevs
eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis Semcirebas 40%-mde.
eleqtroenergiis prognozi 2021 wlamde
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
gvtsT
0.0
2000.0
4000.0
6000.0
8000.0
10000.0
12000.0
14000.0
16000.0
danakargebi gvtsT
moTxovna gvtsT
mSp erT sulze US$centraluri xelisuflebis kontolirebad teritoriis mosaxleoba, aTasi
realuri mSp, mln US$
:
53
eleqtroenergiis tarifis TandaTanobiT gazrda iwvevs moTxovnlebis
Semcirebas 10%-iT 2000 wlis donesTan SedarebiT.
bunebrivi airis miwodebis gafarToeba iwvevs eleqtroenergiaze
moTxovnilebis 30%-iT Semcirebas 2000 wlis donesTan SedarebiT.
gadacemis da ganawilebis danakargebis Semcireba iwvevs damatebiT 10%
dacemas.
Tumca yvela sam scenars (aRniSnulia naxazze 4-13, rogorc “ekonomikuri
faqtorebi”, “fasis variacia” da “energoefeqturoba”) mivyavarT eleqtroenergiaze
moTxovnilebis sxva ganxilul prognozebTan SedarebiT bevrad maRal maCveneblamde:
20,000 gvtsT-dan 25,000 gvtsT-mde 2020 wels. magram es iyo 2001 weli.
OECD-m daafinansa kvleva24 (2004), romelic Catarda 2004 wels da romlis
prognozi 2020 wels eleqtroenergiaze
moTxovnilebis Taobaze bevrad dabalia
wina sam scenarTan SedarebiT - kerZod,
daaxloebiT 16,000gvtsT
saqarTvelos energetikis saministrom
2006 wels SeimuSava eleqtroenegiaze
moTxovnilebis sakuTari prognozi da
Sedegad miiRo moTxovnilebis ufro
dabali maCvenebeli - daaxloebiT 11,000
gvtsT 2015 wels (Seswavlis periodis
horizonti). tendenciis martivi
eqstrapolacia iZleva eleqtroenergiis
moTxovnis mniSvnelobas 12,000gvtsT
2020 wels.
grZelvadiani efeqturobis prognozze
Zlier moqmedebs is mravali daSveba, romelTa gakeTeba aucilebelia gardamavali
qveynebisaTvis. amis garda, ekonomikuri zrda umetes SemTxvevaSi aracxadia da
arastabiluri. aseve, ekonomikis struqturuli cvlilebani da privatizacia
realur dabrkolebebs qmnian eleqtroenergiis da energiis moxmarebis
prognozirebisTvis mrewvelobis dargSi. mosaxleobis yofaqceva da reaqcia
arapopilarul zomebze, rogorc wesi, Zneladaa prognozirebadi.
24 Debt-for-Environment Swap in Georgia: Potential Project piplines for the Expenditure Programme, OECD, 2004
SeiZleba davaskvnaT, rom eleqtroenergiis
moTxovnilebis prognozi, SemuSavebuli am
kvlevis Sedegad, realisturia
dRevandeli TvalsazrisiT. Tumca,
rekomendebulia energiaze da
eleqtroenergaze moTxovnilebis
prognozirebis safuZvlebis ufro
detaluri gamokvleva, ise rogorc
progresis yoveldRiuri monitoringi,
raTa saWiro koreqtivebi droulad iqnas
Setanili. amisaTvis sagangebod
gamoyofili gundis mier yoveldRiuri
monitoringis gareSe korqtireba ar
moxdeba da SeiZleba warmoiSvas gadaxra
eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis realur
zrdasa da prognozs Soris.
:
54
naxazi 4-13: eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis arsebuli prognozebi
2020 wlisaTvis (sxvadasxva wyaro)
eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis maRali da dabali prognozi
pirveli daSveba mdgomarobs imaSi, rom eleqtroenergiis moxmareba SeiZleba
gaizardos saSualo wliuri nazardiT, romelic SemoTavazebul scenarSi odnav
meti iqneba mTliani pirveladi energiis wyaros zomaze (4%). eleqtroenergiis
zrda SeiZleba Semcirdes Tu gamoyenebuli iqneba energoefeqturobis zomebi, magram
es Zalian gaurkvevelia, radgan saqarTvelos mosaxleoba saSualo da dabal
donezea aRWurvili sayofacxovrebo eleqtroxelsawyoebiT. es niSnavs, rom
ekonomikuri zrdis pirobebSi, miuxedavad ufro efeqturi sayofacxovrebo
eleqtroxelsawyoebisa, eleqtroenergiis moxmareba mosaxleobaSi gaizrdeba
gamoyenebuli xelsawyoebis gamo. es sakmaod aracxadia, da amitom Cven aviReT
eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis saSualo
donis yvelaze didi mniSvneloba 5%.
analogiurad, Cven aviReT
eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis ufro mcire
zrda - 2,5%, romelic odnav metia
mTliani pirveladi energiis wyaros
zrdis tempze raluri scenaris
SemTxvevaSi siRaribis Semcirebis
programis farglebSi (2%).
ra Tqma unda, scenarebi da prognozebi
subieqturia ganmartebis Tanaxmad, magram Cven vfiqrobT, rom es gaanalizirebuli
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
gvtsT
OECD MoE ekonom. faqtor. fasis cvlil. energoefeqturoba
am kvlevis miznebisaTvis da generaciis
gafaroebis dagegmvisaTvis eleqtro-
energiaze moTxovnilebis sxvadasxva
prognozis SemTxvevaSi, moTxovnilebis
bazisur prognozis garda konsultantma
igulisxma eleqtroenergiaze da energiaze
moTxovnilebis udablesi da umaRlesi
SesaZlo zrda 2021 w. periodamde. es
daSvebebi dafuZnebuli iyo TPES prognozze, romelic saSualod meryebs
2%-dan 4%-mde 2005-2020 wlebSi.
:
55
scenarebi adqvaturia garemoebaTa gamo. Tumca aris parametrebi (mag., mosaxleobis
dabali zrda da potenciurad mSp-s ufro dabali zrda), romelTa Tanaxmad dabali
prognozi (2.5%) arasakmarisad dabalia, es parametrebi kontrbalansirdeba
mxedvelobaSi miRebuli SedarebiT dabali energointensivobiT.
4.3. moxovnilebis prognozi da eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis
parametrebi
sabazo moTxovnilebis prognozi
eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis prognozi ZiriTadi mamoZravebeli Zalaa generacis
simZlavris raodenobis dagemvaSi, romelic SeiZleba saWiro gaxdes
eleqtrosistemisaTvis momavalSi. am garemoebis mxedvelobaSi
miRebiT,gansakuTrebuli yuraReba mieqca saqarTvelos energosistemis
eleqtroenergiis moxmarebaSi mosalodneli momavali saWiroebebis saTanado
dadgenas.
zemoTaRwerili analizis safuZvelze, miRebuli sabaziso moTxovnilebis prognozi
saqarTvelos energosistemisaTvis 2007-2021 wlebSi moaswavebs saSualo wliuri
zrdis dones - 3%. sruli moxmareba, romelic gamoyenebuli iyo rogorc sabaziso
moTxovnilebis prognozi, mocemulia cxrilSi 4.7
cxrili 4.7 saqarTvelos energosistema – sabaziso moTxovnilebis
prognozi 2021 wlamde
weli
sruli gadacemis
danakargebis
CaTvliT wliuri zrdis done
(gvtsT) (%)
2007 8166 -2008 8415 3.062009 8673 3.062010 8938 3.062011 9212 3.062012 9494 3.062013 9784 3.062014 10084 3.062015 10392 3.062016 10710 3.062017 11038 3.062018 11336 2.70 2019 11642 2.70 2020 11957 2.70 2021 12279 2.70
:
56
generaciis gafarToebis Zalian detaluri dagegmvis analizis miznebisaTvis WASP programuli paketis gamoyenebiT miRebuli realuri saaTobrivi datvirTvebis bazaze
saqarTvelos energosistemaSi 2006 wels, konsultantma agreTve gaanaliza datvirTvis
maxasiaTeblebi. kerZod, konsultantma miiRo monacemebi ganxorcielebuli saaTobrivi
datvirTvis Sesaxeb saqarTvelos eleqtrosistemebisagan. es monacemebi moicavs periods
2006 wlis 3 martidan 2007 wlis 20 maisamde, garkveuli wyvetebis CaTvliT:
ar aris monacemebis saaTobrivi datvirTvis Sesaxeb 2007 wlis 1 da 2 ianvars
gamotovebuli 2006 wlis 10,11 da 12 martis monacemebi
gamotovebuli 2006 wlis 24 aprilis 10 saaTis monacemebi, 1 da 18 oqtombris, 6,
14, da 14 noembris monacemebi
gamotovebulia saaTobrivi datvirTvis monacemebi 18 noembrida 30 noembramde
periodSi.
im mizniT, rom gansazRvruliyo sabaziso datvirTvis monacemebi, konsultantma uwyveti
8760 saaTis datvirTva 2006 wlisaTvis Semdegnairad gansazRvra:
saaTobrivi datvirTva 2007 wlis 1 da 2 ianvars CaiTvala 3 ianvris saaTobrivi
datvirTvis tolad.
2006 wlis ianvris, Tebervlis da 1, 2 martis datvirTvebad igive sidideebi iyo
aRebuli rac 2007 wlis ianvarSi, TebervalSi da 1, 2 marts.
2006 wlis 10, 11, 12 martis saaTobrivi datvirTvad aRebuli iyo igive
mniSvneloba, rac 2007 wlis 10, 11, 12 martis SemTxvevaSi.
2006 wlis 24 apilis, 1 da 18 oqtombris, 6, 14 da 17 noembris datvirTvebi
gautolda datvirTvebis saSualo mniSvnelobebs momdevno an wina dRis Sesabamis
saaTebSi
28 noembridan 30 noembramde saaaTobrivi datvirTvebad aRebul iqna saaTobrivi
datvirTvebi 2006 wlis 1 noembridan 12 noembramde.
saaTobrivi datvirTvis uwyveti monacemebis
misaRebad gamoyenebul iqna moTxovnilebis
maxasiaTeblebis analizi. eleqtroenergiaze
arsebuli moTxovnilebis 2006 wlis
ZiriTadi Tviuri maxasiaTeblebi mocemulia
cxilSi 4.8. am maxasiaTeblebis bazaze
miRebuli iqna miaxloebiTi Tviuri
datvirTvis mrudebi momavali
gasaanalizirebeli periodis yoveli
wlisaTvis, romlebic gamoyenebuli iqna
Semdgomi analizisaTvis.
2006 wlis realizirebuli saaTobrivi
monacemebis mixedviT yvelaze dabali
moTxovnileba (359mgvt) iyo ivnisSi
(zafxulis sezoni), xolo realuri
datvirTvis piki 4-jer ufro meti -
1553mgvt - iyo dekemberSi (zamTris
sezoni). umciresi Sefardeba Tvis sabazo
da pikur datvirTvas Soris iyo
TebervalSi (sabazo iyo pikuri
datvirTvis 51%), xolo udidesi
Sefardeba sabazo da pikur Tviur
datvirTvebs Soris iyo martSi (sabazo
datvirTva iyo pikuri datvirTvis 28%).
:
57
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
JANUARY FERUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER
Peak
Loa
d (M
W)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
naxazi 4-14: sabaziso moTxovnilebis prognozi – Tviuri pikuri datvirTva
2007-2021 wlebSi.
:
58
cxrili 4.8 realizirebuli moxmarebis sabaziso maxasiaTeblebi 2006 wels
2006
Tve
ianvari
Tebervali
marti
aprili
maisi
ivnisi
ivlisi
agvisto
seqtemberi
oqtomberi
noemberi
dekemberi
wliuri
Pmax
MW
14
75
1410
14
40
1371
13
05
1055
10
69
1073
11
00
1233
13
79
1553
15
53
Wto
tal
GW
h 79
979
275
967
361
753
956
958
656
760
070
782
680
34
Pmin
M
W
590
719
407
576
548
359
374
537
451
481
607
621
359
Load
Fact
or
%74
.2
76.9
72
.2
67.2
64
.8
70.0
72
.9
74.8
70
.6
66.7
70
.2
72.9
59
.1
Wco
nst
GW
h 43
152
529
742
040
026
227
339
232
935
144
345
345
77
Pmax
/Pa
%94
.98
90.7
9 92
.72
88.2
8 84
.03
67.9
3 68
.83
69.0
9 70
.83
79.3
9 88
.80
100.
00
Wm
/Wa
%9.
95
9.86
9.
45
8.38
7.
68
6.71
7.
08
7.29
7.
06
7.47
8.
80
10.2
8 12
.0
Pmin
/Pm
ax
%40
.0
51.0
28
.3
42.0
42
.0
34.0
35
.0
50.0
41
.0
39.0
44
.0
40.0
Pm
ax –
Tviuri pikuri datvirTva
Wto
tal –
Tviuri (wliuri) moxmareba
Pm
in –
Tviuri sabazo (minimaluri) datvirTva
Mon
thly
Loa
d Fa
ctor
= 1
2 *W
tota
l/Pm
ax/8
.760
A
nnua
l Loa
d Fa
ctor
= W
tota
l/Pm
ax/8
.760
W
cons
t = P
min
*12/
8.76
P
max
/Pa
– Tviuri pikuri datvirTvis Sefardeba wliur pikur datvirTvasTan
Wm
/Wa
– Tviuri moxmarebis Sefardeba wliur moxmarebasTan
Pm
in/P
max
– Tviuri pikuri datvirtvis Sefardeba Tviur minimalur datvirTvasTan
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
59
sabaziso da pikur (minimum da maqsimumi) Tviuri datvirTvebis gamoTvlili
Sefardeba (Pmin/Pmax) TiTqmis mTeli Tormeti Tvis manZilze naklebia 50%
(28%-sa da 51%-s Soris), rac xazs usvams samrewvelo momxmareblis nakleb
monawileobas saqarTveloSi mTliani eleqtroenergiis moxmarebaSi (naxazi 4-
15).
imave 4-15 naxazze mocemulia agreTve Tviuri datvirTvis faqtorebi, romlebic
cota metia – daaxloebiT 75% (65%-sa da 77%-s Soris).
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
JANUARY FERUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER
Load
Fac
tor a
nd P
min
/max
(%)
Load factor Pmin/Pmax
naxazi 4-15: Tviuri datvirTvis faqtorebis da Tviuri minimumis Sefaredeba
pikur datvirTvebTan.
wliuri pikuri datvirTva Seesabameba
dekemberSi pikur datvirTvas da
Tviuri pikuri datvirTvis Zalian
maRali done (wliuri pikuri
datvirTvis 90%-ze meti)
realizebulia 5-Tvian periodSi:
noembridan martamde (nax. 4-16). igive
periodSi (noembridan martamde) Tviuri moxmareba 9%-iT maRalia energiis
saSualo wliur moxmarebaze.
eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnis TvalsazrisiT
kritikuli periodi warmoadgens periods
noembersa da marts Soris da am periodSi
eleqtroenergiis saimedo mowodebis saWiroeba
gansazRvravs axali simZlavreebis damatebis
saWiroebas gaanalizirebul dagegmvis periodSi.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
60
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
JANUARY FERUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER
Pmon
th/P
annu
al (%
)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
Wm
onth
/Wan
nual
(%)
Pmonth/Pa Wmonth/Wa
naxazi 4-16: Sefardebebi - Tviuri pikuri datvirTa/wliuri pikuri datvirTva
da Tviuri moxmareba/mTliani wliuri moxmareba.
prognozirebuli wliuri pikuri datvirTvebi, romlebic Seesabamebian energiis
moxmarebas 2007-2021 wlebSi. sabaziso moTxovnilebis prognozi mocemulia
cxrilSi 4.9
cxrili 4.9 sabaziso moTxovnilebis prognozi
Pmax (MW) Pmin (MW) Wtotal (GWh)
2007 1591 368 81672008 1640 379 84192009 1690 390 86752010 1741 402 89372011 1795 415 92142012 1850 427 94972013 1906 440 97842014 1965 454 100872015 2025 468 103952016 2087 482 107132017 2151 497 110422018 2209 510 113402019 2268 524 116422020 2330 538 119612021 2392 553 12279
dabali da maRali moTxovnilebis prognozi
4.2 qveTavSi warmodgenili daSvebebis safuZvelze, konsultantma gansazRvra
eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis saSualo wliuri zrdis done 2007-2021
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
61
wlebisTvis 2.5%-is toli dabali moTxovnilebis prognozisaTvis. miiRo ra es
mxedvelobaSi, iseve rogorc igive Tviuri datvirTvis maxasiaTeblebi rac
gamoyenebuli iyo sabazo moTxovnilebis prognozSi, konsultantma gansazRvra
wliuri pikuri datvirTva da Sesabamisi energiis moxmareba periodSi 2007-
2021 wlebi, rogorc es mocemulia cxrilSi 4.10
dabali moTxovnilebis prognozis analogiurad da igive Tviuri datvirTvis
maxasiaTeblebis gaTvaliswinebiT rac sabazo datvirTvis prognozSi iyo
gamoyenebuli, konsultantma gansazRvra wliuri datvirTvebi da Sesabamisi
eleqtroenergiis moxmareba maRali moTxovnilebis prognozSi, rogorc es
mocemulia cxrilSi 4.10.
cxrili 4.10. dabali da maRali moTxovnilebis prognozi
dabali moTxovnilebis prognozi maRali moTxovnilebis prognozi
Pmax (MW)
Pmin(MW)
Wtotal (GWh)
Pmax(MW)
Pmin (MW)
Wtotal (GWh)
2007 1591 368 8167 1591 368 8167 2008 1631 377 8373 1670 386 8573 2009 1671 386 8578 1754 405 9004 2010 1713 396 8793 1842 425 9456 2011 1756 406 9014 1934 447 9928 2012 1800 416 9240 2030 469 10421 2013 1845 426 9471 2132 492 10944 2014 1891 437 9707 2239 517 11494 2015 1938 448 9948 2351 543 12069 2016 1987 459 10200 2468 570 12669 2017 2037 471 10457 2591 598 13301 2018 2087 482 10713 2721 628 13968 2019 2140 494 10985 2857 660 14666 2020 2193 507 11257 3000 693 15400 2021 2248 519 11540 3150 728 16170
diagrama yvela sami gaanalizirebuli moTxovnilebis prognozebiT mocemulia
naxazze 4-17.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
62
naxazi 4-17. wliuri moTxovnileba eleqtroenergiaze
moTxovnilebis samive prognozisaTvis
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Ann
ual e
lect
ricity
dem
and
(GW
h)
Basic Demand Forecast High Demand Forecast Low Demand Forecast
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
63
5. eleqtrogeneraciis sistemis ganviTarebis
variantebi
5.1. SerCeuli Tboeleqtrosadgurebis ZiriTadi maxasiaTeblebi da
xarjTaRricxva
qveynis eleqtroenergetikis seqtoris optimaluri ganviTarebis
gegmis SemuSavebis mizniT aucilebelia arsebuli Tbo da
hidrogeneraciis sadgurebis parametrebis gaumjobesebasa da axali
sadgurebis mSeneblobasTan dakavSirebuli sakiTxebis ganxilva.
arsebuli hidroeleqtrosadgurebis maxasiaTeblebis gaumjobeseba
(sareabilitacio samuSaoebis Catarebis Sedegad) gaTvaliswinebulia
analizSi (ixileT nawili 3) im faqtis gamo, rom arsebuli
hidroeleqtrosadgurebis sareabiltacio samuSaoebis dasruleba
garkveul periods saWiroebs. arsebuli Tboeleqtrosadgurebis
reabiltaciis programa ukve dasrulebulia da, Sesabamisad, raime
saxis damatebiTi sareabilitacio samuSaoebis Sesruleba
Tbogeneraciis obieqtebze ar aris ganxiluli modelis damuSavebis
dros.
imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom saqarTveloSi adgilobrivad warmoebuli
sawvavis Zalian SezRuduli resursi arsebobs, konsultanma gaakeTa
daSveba, rom qveyanaSi momavalSi aSenebuli
TboeleqtrosadgurebisaTvis bazisad gamoyenebuli iqneba
kombinirebuli ciklis bunebriv airze momuSave agregatebi jamuri
simZlavriT 150 mgvt. simZlavris es done SerCeul iqna rogorc
yvelaze optimaluri mcire, ufro ZviradRirebul da did sadgurebs
Soris. am ukanasknelis mSenebloba SedarebiT iafia Tumca
saqarTvelos eleqtrosistemis simZlavrisa da pikuri moxmarebis
wliuri zrdis maCveneblis gaTvaliswinebiT naklebad praqtikuli.
zemoaRniSnulis garda, bunebrivi gazis maRali fasis (230 aSS
dolari/1000 m3) mxedvelobaSi miviRebT konsultantnma aseve gaakeTa
imis daSveba, rom saqarTvelos eletroenergetikis ganviTarebis
gegmaSi SesaZloa gaTvaliswinebuli iyos 300 mgvt simZlavris
Tboeleqtrosadguris mSenebloba. am alternativis
ganxorcielebisaTvis sawvavis ori potenciuri wyaro arsebobs,
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
64
romelic Tavis mxriv gavlenas iqoniebs sadguris mSeneblobisaTvis
adgilmdebareobis SerCevasa da ekologiuri Sefasebis momzadebaze.
aRniSnuli wyaroebia:
tyibuli-Saoris sabadodan mopovebuli naxSiri. sabados
damtkicebuli maragi Seadgens 388 million tonas.
maRali xarisxis sxva qveynebidan importirebuli naxSiri .
yvelaze axlos mdebare qveyanaa ukraina, romlis naxSiris
damtkicebuli maragi Seadgens 37 miliard tonas.
tyibuli-Saoris sabadodan mopovebul naxSiri dabali TboSemcvelobiT
xasiaTdeba – 17.6 mj/kg, Tumca es maCvenebeli gacilebiT maRalia mura
naxSirTan SedarebiT (7-9 mj/kg), magram Camouvardeba importirebuli
naxSiris TboSemcvelobas (25 mj/kg). tyibuli-Saoris naxSiris
nacrianoba daaxloebiT 28%-ia, tenianoba – 8%, xolo wvadi mdgeneli
(gogirdi) Seadgens 1.1 %-s. naxSiris mopoveba SesaZlebelia miwisqveSa
maRaroebidan. naxSiris mopoveba daiwyo 1946 wels da mopovebis
maqsimaluri moculoba dafiqsirda 1988 wels - 1 milioni tonis
odenobiT. amis Semdeg naxSiris mopoveba mkveTrad daeca da 2000
wlisaTvis Seadgina 7 aTasi tona. mopovebis Semcirebis ZiriTad mizezs
warmoadgenda mopovebuli naxSiris TviRirebulebis mkveTri zrda – 122
aSS dolari/tona (203 lari/t), maSin rodesac sarealizacio fasi
Seadgenda mxolod 7 aSS dolars 1 tonaze (12 lari/t) [2]. miuxedavad
amisa mosalodnelia, rom tyibulis maRarodan naxSiris mopoveba
momavali wlebis ganmavlobaSi gaizrdeba da srulad daakmayofilebs
naxSirze momuSave 300 mgvt simZlavris Tbosadguris moTxovnas sawvavze
(wyaro: saqarTvelos energetikis saministro). amis safuZvelia
konkurentuli fasebi naxSirze energiis erT erTeulTan mimarTebaSi.
imis gamo, rom dReisaTvis ar arsebobs informaciis sando wyaroebi
(maRaroebis reabilitaciis teqnikur-ekonomikuri Seswavlis angariSi),
raTa dasabuTebul iqnas masStaburi naxSir-mopovebiTi samuSaoebis (1
milioni tona wliurad) warmoebis momgebianoba, importirebuli
naxSiris bazaze Tboeleqtrosadguris mSeneblobis varianti SesaZloa
ufro realisturic ki iyos grZelvadiani ganviTarebis gegmis
SemuSavebis mizniT.
naxSiris Sesyidva SesaZlebelia misaReb fasad msoflios masStabiT, rac
winamdebare angariSis miznebisaTvis Seadgens 56 aSS dolars/tonaze da
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
65
mosalodnelia, rom importirebul naxSirs eqneba Semdegi
maxasiaTeblebi: dabali TboSemcveloba - 25 mj/kg, xolo nacrianoba
daaxloebiT 25%.
Tboeleqtrosadguris adgilmdebareobas gansazRvris mizniT
gaTvaliswinebul iqna naxSiris adgilobrivi maRaroebidan mopovebis
SesaZlebloba da Sesabamisad SerCeul iqna teritoria, romelic
mdebareobs tyibulTan axlos, qalaq quTaisis maxloblad da mcire
manZiliTaa daSorebuli naxSiris mompovebeli maRaroebidan. jer kidev
1999 wels qarTul-slovakuri kompaniis mier damuSavebul iqna
tyibulis Tboeleqtrosadguris mSeneblobis proeqti, Tumca igi
iTvaliswinebda ori 125 mgvt simZlavris agregatis montaJs.
importirebul naxSirze momuSave Tboeleqtrosadguris variantis
Sefasebisas miRebulia daSveba, rom naxSiris transportireba
ganxorcieldeba zRviT. am mizniT mizanSewonilia Savis zRvis portebis
– baTumisa da sufsis gamoyenebis SesaZleblobis Sefaseba (savaraudod
sufsa an masTan yvelaze axlos mdebare porti). portidan
Tboeleqtrosadguramde naxSiris transportireba SesaZleblia
sarkinigzo xaziT. transportirebis xarjebis Semcirebis mizniT
aucilebelia, rom Tboeleqtrosadguri mdebareobdes zRvis sanapirosTan.
Tumca gasaTvaliswinebelia is faqtic, rom sanapiro zolSi
Tboeleqtrosadguris arseboba negatiur zegavlenas iqoniebs turizmis
ganviTarebaze.
garda amisa, saqarTvelos eleqtroenergetikuli sistemis Semdgomi
ganviTarebis TvalsazrisiT atomuri eleqtrosadguris mSeneblobis
SesaZleblobebic iqna ganxiluli. Tumca unda aRiniSnos, rom
saqarTvelos eleqtroenergetikuli sistemis dRevandeli parametrebi da
struqtura ver akmayofilebs atomuri eleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobisa
da eqspluataciis moTxovnebs. 1600 mgvt simZlavris atomuri
eleqtrosadguris (franguli teqnologiis gamoyenebiT, mesame Taobis
sadguri) mSeneblobasTan dakavSirebiT garkveuli monaxazi arsebobs,
Tumca igi saWiroebs detalur Seswavlas, Tu ramdenad mizanSewonili
iqneba aseTi simZlavris sadguris CarTva saqarTvelos
eleqtrosistemaSi. 600 mgvt simZlavris atomuri eleqtrosadguris
mSenebloba mainc ganixileba rogorc erT-erTi potenciuri proeqti da,
Sesabamisad, CarTulia Catarebul analizSi.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
66
im potenciuri Tboeleqtrosadgurebis teqnikuri parametrebi, romelTa
mSeneblobac SesaZloa ganxilul iqnas saqarTvelos
eleqtroenergetikuli seqtoris Semdgomi ganviTarebis TvalsazrisiT,
mocemulia cxrilSi 5.1.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
67
cxrili 5.1. axali Tboeleqtrosadgurebis teqnikuri maxasiaTeblebi
eleqtrosadguri
kombinirebuli
cikli -150
mgvt
importirebul
naxSirze–
300 mgvt
adgilobriv
naxSirze –
300 mgvt
atomuri-
1600
mgvt
atomuri
– 600
mgvt
sawvavi gazi naxSiri adgilobrivi
naxSiri atomuri atomuri
dadgmuli
simZlavre
mgvt
150 300 300 1600 600
minimaluri
miwodebuli
simZalvre
mgvt
88 150 150 1000 450
maqsimaluri
miwodebuli
simZlavre
mgvt
144 274 274 1500 550
FOR% 8 5 5 5 5
profilaqtikuri
samuSaoebi
dReebi/weli
20 47 30 18 18
Tbounarianoba
(minimaluri
datvirTvis
dros)
kkal/kvtsT
2048 2670 2800 2389 2672
Tbounarianoba
(maqsimaluri
datvirTvis
dros)
kkal/kvtsT
1654 2389 2508 2389 2672
cvladi
saoperacio
xarjebi
aSS
dolari/mgvtsT
2.93 1.3 1.4 4.9 4.9
fiqsirebuli
saoperacio
xarjebi aSS
dolari/kvt-Tve
2.8 2.5 2.5 5.05 5.05
mSeneblobis
Rirebuleba
aSS dolari/kvt
1042 1562 1700 2000 2500
mSeneblobis 3 4 4 5 5
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
68
periodi, weli
wyaro : [1], [2], [3], [4]
[1] – saerTaSoriso energetikuli saagentos (IEA) informacia, 2007 w. [2] – teqnologiuri cvlilebebis gatarebis aucileblobis Sefasebis mizniT
kvalifikaciis amaRleba, rac iTvaliswinebs Sesabamisi proeqtebis
identificirebas, Sefasebas da ganxorcielebas. garemos da bunebrivi
resursebis dacvis saministros klimatis cvlilebis erovnuli saagento, 2002
w.
[3] – samxreT-aRmosavleT evropis (SEE Region) qveynebis generaciis seqtorSi investiciebis ganxorcielebis SesaZleblobebis Seswavla, evrokomisia da
msoflio banki, 2005 w.
[4] – atomuri eleqtrosadguris mSeneblobis mokle angariSi 16, 2007w.
5.1.1. potenciuri Tboeleqtrosadgurebis ranJireba da winaswari
Sefaseba
potenciuri Tboeleqtrosadgurebis ekonomikuri parametrebis Sefaseba, pirvel
rigSi, xdeba SerCevis mrudebis gamoyenebiT. SerCevis mrudebi agebulia yvela
potenciuri TboeleqtrosadgurisTvis da eleqtroenergiis generaciis wliuri
xarjebis Sefasebis saSualebas iZleva.
SerCevis mrudebi gamoyeneba miznad isaxavs yvelaze misaRebi parametrebis mqone
axali sadguris identificirebas. 6 potenciuri Tboeleqtrosadguris SerCevis
mrudebi mocemulia suraTze 5-1.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
69
Georgia-TPPs candidates
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Plant Capacity factor (%)
Ann
ual C
ost (
US$
/kW
-yea
r)
Coal Imported-300 MWCoal Domestic-300 MWNuclear-600 MWNuclear-1600 MWCC-150 MW
suraTi 5-1. potenciuri Tboeleqtrosadgurebis SerCevis mrudebi
SerCevis procedurebis ganxorcielebis Semdeg gamoikveTa Semdegi suraTi:
sxvadasxva dadgmuli simZlavris pirobebSi upiratesoba eniWeba
sxvadasxva Tboeleqtrosadgurs.
dadgmuli simZlavris 30%-ze naklebi datvirTviT funqcionirebis
pirobebSi yvelaze mimzidvelia bunebriv airze momuSave sadgurebis
mSenebloba.
dadgmuli simZlavris 30%-dan 60%-mde datvirTviT funqcionirebis
pirobebSi yvelaze mimzidvelia naxSirze momuSave sadgurebis
mSenebloba.
dadgmuli simZlavris 60%-ze metad datvirTvis SemTxvevaSi 600 mgvt-
ian atomur eleqtrosadgurs yvelaze mimzidveli ekonomikuri
parametrebi gaaCnia.
mZlavri 1600 – mgvt-iani atomuri eleqtrosadguris (franguli
teqnologia, mesame Taoba) mSenebloba aramimzidveli alternativaa
saqarTvelos eleqtroenergetikuli sistemisaTvis (sul rom araferi
vTqvaT sistemis saimedoobis da stabilurobis TvalsazrisiT Seqmnil
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
70
seriozul problemaze, rac SesaZloa gamowveuli iyos aseTi mZlavri
sadguris SedarebiT patara sistemaSi CarTviT).
SerCevis mrudebze dayrdnobiT ganxorcielebuli winaswari Sefasebis Sedegad
gadawyda, rom Semdgom analizSi gaTvaliswinebuli iqneba mxolod ori tipis
sadguris mSenebloba: kombinirebuli ciklis 150 mgvt simZlavris
airturbinuli danadgari da 300 mgvt simZlavris importirebul naxSirze
momuSave Tboeleqtrosadguri. am analizis Sedegebi warmodgenilia meeqvse
TavSi.
adgilobrivad mopovebul naxSirze momuSave sadguris mSeneblobis
alternativa naklebad mimzidvelia importirebul naxSirze momuSave
sadgurTan SedarebiT. warmodgenili Sedegebis gaTvalisiwnebiT
aRniSnuli sadguris mSeneblobis SesaZlebloba saerTod gamoiricxa
Semdgomi dagegmvis da analizis dros.
5.1.2. potenciuri Tboeleqtrosadgurebis garemoze zemoqmedebis
Sefaseba
saqarTvelos eleqtrosistemis Tbogeneraciis mimarTulebiT ganviTarebis
pirobebSi ori SesaZlo variantis (bunebriv airze da naxSirze momuSave
sadgurebi) Sedarebisas unda aRiniSnos is faqti, rom naxSiris
Tboeleqtrosadguris teqnikur-ekonomikuri parametrebis upiratesoba
umniSvnelo xdeba garemoze zemoqmedebis faqtoris gaTvaliswinebis SemTxvevaSi.
kerZod, atmosferoSi damabinZurebeli nivTierebebis gamoyofis TvalsazrisiT
bunebriv airze momuSave Tbosadgurebi naxSiris sadgurTan SedarebiT naklebad
mavnea garemosaTvis. garda amisa, naxSiris Tboeleqtrosadguris mSenebloba
sanapiro zolSi sakmaod did problemas warmoadgens. Tumca, imis
gaTvaliswinebiT, rom Tbosadgurebis mSeneblobisaTvis konkretuli adgili
SerCeuli jer ar aris, am sadgurebis garemoze zemoqmedebis analizi SesaZloa
eyrdnobodes sadguris zogad maxasiaTeblebs, sawvavis Tvisebebs da
garemosdacviT moTxovnebs. Sesabamisad, am etapze, verc garemoze zemoqmedebis
ufro detaluri Sefaseba moxdeba da verc sadguris mSeneblobiT gamowveuli
socialuri da ekonomikuri zegavlenis analizi.
mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeba Tbo da hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobiT
gamowveuli garemoze zemoqmedebis masStabi. maSin, rodesac
hidroeleqtrosadguris SemTxvevaSi zemoqmedebis qveS xvdeba mxolod mimdebare
teritoria, Tboeleqtrosadguris mSenebloba, rogorc adgilobrivi (sadguris
garSemo), aseve regionuli da globaluri mniSvnelobis zemoqmedebiT
xasiaTdeba. Tboeleqtrosadgurebi abinZureben atmosferos, niadags, wyals,
iwveven xmaurs, vibracias da qmnian eleqtromagnitur vels. mavne nivTierebebis
gamoyofa uaryofiTad moqmedebs adaminebis janmrTelobaze, florasa da faunaze
da agreTve Senoba-nagebobebze.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
71
Tboeleqtrosadguris garemoze zemoqmedeba, pirvel rigSi, damokidebulia
sadguris tipze, sawvavis saxeobasa da maxasiaTeblebze, eleqtroenergiis
gardaqmnis koeficientze, sadguris dizainze, agreTve mavne nivTierebebis
gafrqvevis Semcirebis TvalsazrisiT sadgurisa da mowyobiloba-danadgarebis
efeqturobaze. zogadad mniSvnelovnad gansxvavebuli parametrebi gaaCnia
sadgurebs, romlebic sawvavis saxiT iyeneben navTobs, bunebriv airsa da
naxSirs. saerTod, yvela tipis TboeleqtrosadgurisaTvis atmosferos
damabinZurebel mavne nivTierebaTa ricxvs ganekuTvneba: azotis Jangi (NOx,
kerZod ki NO2), naxSiris monoqsidi (mxuTavi gazi) da naxSirorJangi. garda
amisa, zemoT aRniSnuli sawvavis gamoyenebis pirobebSi adgili aqvs gogirdis
orJangis gamoyofas, xolo naxSiris Tboeleqtrosadguris SemTxvevaSi emateba
mavne nivTierebebi myari nawilakebis saxiT. miTiTebul mavne nivTierebebs Soris
azotis Jangi da gogirdis orJangi mniSvnelovan rols TamaSobs mJavis
Semcveli wvimis warmoqmnaSi, xolo CO2 saTburi efeqtis mqone gazebis
ZiriTadi komponentia da didi gavlena aqvs globalur daTbobasa da klimatis
cvlilebaze.
saerTaSoriso valdebulebebisa da rekomendaciebis gaTvaliswinebiT,
samrewvelo qveynebma SeimuSaves Sesabamisi kanonmdebloba da wesebi yvela saxis
mavne nivTierebis gafrqvevis Semcirebis mizniT. gansakuTrebiT didi yuradReba
eqceva atmosferoSi mavne nivTierebebis gafrqvevis Semcirebas. saqarTveloSi
moqmedebs garemosdacviTi nebarTvebis sistema, romelic dReisaTvis
regulirdeba licenziebisa da nebarTvebis Sesaxeb kanonis (2005 weli),
garemoze zemoqmedebis nebarTvebis Sesaxeb kanonis (1996 weli), garemos
dacvis, wylis resursebis (1997 weli) da atmosferos dacvis (1999 weli)
Sesaxeb kanonebis safuZvelze. yvela Sesabamisi kanoni saWiroebs gadaxedvas da
ZiriTad kanonTan SesabamisobaSi moyvanas. Tumca unda aRiniSnos, rom
dReisaTvis saqarTveloSi ar moqmedebs emisiebis zRvruli moculobebis da
sxva msgavsi sakiTxebis maregulirebeli konkretuli wesebi. miuxedavad amisa,
saqarTvelom miiRo evrokavSiris koncefcia “saukeTeso xelmisawvdomi
meTodebis” (“best available techniques’ – BAT) Sesaxeb, romelic moicavs
rogorc teqnologiur nawils, aseve menejmentis sferos. aqedan gamomdinare,
mosalodnelia, rom swored ganviTarebadi qveynebisTvis miRebuli wesebi da
rekomendaciebi daedeba safuZvlad saqarTveloSi Tboeleqtrosadguris
mSeneblobasTan dakavSirebuli garemosdacviTi sakiTxebis Sefasebas. swored es
aris ZiriTadi mizezi imisa, rom garemoze mavne zemoqmedebis Semcirebis mizniT
saqvabe danadgarebis mwarmoebelma kompaniebma ukve SeimuSaves SedarebiT dabali
sainvesticio Rirebulebis mqone Tanamedrove mowyobilobebi. emisiebis
zRvruli moculobebis (emission limits values – ELV) regulireba, rogorc
wesi, xdeba Semdegi parametriT: mg/m3 namuSevar gazze 00C haeris
temperaturisa da 1013 mbar atmosferuli wnevis pirobebSi. wesebi aseve
ganasxvavebs erTmaneTisgan “arsebul blokebs” da “axal blokebs”. rogorc
wesi, arsebul (eqspluataciaSi myof) blokebs garkveuli dro eZleva
moTxovnebis srulad dakmayofilebisaTvis. axali Tboeleqtrosadguris
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
72
mSeneblobisas evrokavSiris qveynebSi moqmedi kanonis da standartebis
moTxovnebi ufro mkacria, vidre arsebuli sadgurebis SemTxvevaSi.
150 mgvt simZlavris kombinirebuli ciklis airturbinuli eleqtrosadguri
kombinirebuli ciklis teqnologiis danergvis SemTxvevaSi airturbinuli da
orTqlturbinuli eleqtrosadguris (saqvabesTan erTad) margi qmedebis
koeficienti 52%-s aRwevs (42% minimaluri datvirTvis dros). sadguris mier
gacemuli sasargeblo simZlavre 144 mgvt-s Seadgens. aRniSnuli sadguris
garemoze zemoqmedebis analizi eyrdnoba im daSvebas, rom sadguris muSaobis
saaTebis wliuri raodenoba 5500 saaTia, rac iZleva yovelwliurad 792
gvtsT eleqtroenergiis gamomuSavebis saSualebas. sadguris margi qmedebis
koeficientis da bunebrivi airis Tbounarianobis mixedviT (33,33
mjouli/kub.m), bunebrivi airis xarji sadguris nominaluri simZlavriT
muSaobisas Seadgens 8,3 m3/wamSi, xolo gazis wliuri moxmareba Seadgens 165
milion aSS dollars.
kombinirebuli ciklis airturbinis zemoqmedeba garemoze ZiriTadad
gamowveulia azotis Jangis emisiiT, romelic Tavis mxriv mJavis Semcveli
wvimis Semadgeneli mavne nivTierebaa. emisiebze SezRudvebi regulirdeba
konvenciiT Soreul manZilze gavrcelebuli (administraciuli da saxelmwifo
sazRvrebis miRma) atmosferos dabinZurebis Sesaxeb, romlis safuZvelze xdeba
ganviTarebuli qveynebisTvis atmosferos dacvis aqtebis gacema. azotis Jangis
emisiis zRvruli moculoba dadgenilia direqtivis 2001/80/EC-is safuZvelze
da gamoiyeneba ganviTarebul qveynebSi airturbinuli
TboeleqtrosadgurebisaTvis – 50 mg/m3 namuSevar gazze normaluri pirobebSi
(00C haeris temperatura, 1013 mbar atmosferuli wneva, 15% O2).
kombinirebuli ciklis airturbinuli sadguris mier gamomuSavebuli
eleqtroenergiis (792 gvtsT nominaluri datvirTvis da 5500 samuSao saaTis
pirobebSi) safuZvelze naxSirs Jangis emisiis odenoba Seadgens 640 tonas
wlis ganmavlobaSi 150 mgvt simZlavris blokisaTvis.
bunebrivi airis gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi namuSevari gazis udides nawils
Seadgens naxSirorJangi, romelic saTburi efeqti mqone gazia da zemoqmedebas
axdens globalur daTbobasa da klimatis cvlilebaSi. eleqtroenergiis
generaciis Sedegad gafrqveuli naxSirorJangis moculoba
pirdapirproporciuli gamoyenebul sawvavSi naxSirSemcvelobisa da agreTve
xvedriT Tbur moxmarebaze. 792 gvtsT eleqtroenergiis gamomuSavebis
SemTxvevaSi naxSirorJangiis emisiis mTliani moculoba Seadgens 380 000
tonas/welze (480 tona/gvtsT). es warmoadgens naxSirorJangis emiisis yvelaze
dabal dones sxva tipis TboeleqtrosadgurebTan SedarebiT. saTburi efeqtis
airebis emisiis problemasTan mimarTebaSi unda aRiniSnos is faqti, rom
saqarTvelom 1999 wels xeli moawera kiotos oqms da misi ratificirebac
moaxdina. Tumca kiotos oqmis danarT b-s mixedviT saqarTvelos ar aqvs
saTburi efeqtis mqone airebis emisiis Semcirebis valdebuleba 2012 wlamde.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
73
garemoze zemoqmedebas aseve axdens: namuSevari wyali, xmauri da vibracia,
qimiuri narCenebi da eleqtromagnituri veli. yvela zemoaRniSnul faqtors
gacilebiT naklebi zianis motana SeuZlia, romlis kontrolic SesaZlebelia
Tboeleqtrosadguris damxmare sistemebis proeqtirebiT sainJinro
standartebis gaTvaliswinebiT.
kombinirebuli ciklis airturbinuli Tboeleqtrosadguris garemoze
zemoqmedeba gacilebiT dabalia. Aqedan gamomdinare, am tipis
Tboeleqtrosadguris mSenebloba dasaSvebia did qalaqebSi, msxvili moxmarebis
centrebTan axlos, Tu iq arsebobs gazmomaragebis qseli. saqarTvelos
SemTxvevaSi, bunebriv airze momuSave axali blokebis mSenebloba
gaTvaliswinebulia arsebuli Tboeleqtrosadguris (Tbilsresi) teritoriaze,
rac amcirebs garemoze uaryofiTi zemoqmedebis dones. em tipis sadgurebi
hidroeleqtrosadgurebis da sxva ganaxlebadi energiis wyaroebis saukeTeso
alternativad iTvleba imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom maTi mSenebloba finansuri
da ekononomikuri TvalsazrisiT gamarTlebulia. am ukanasknelis gaanalizeba
aseve aucilebelia strategiuli TvalsazrisiTac, radganac bunebrivi gazis
wyaro saqarTveloSi ar arsebobs. Gazis importi xdeba sxvadasxva qveynebidan
da misi fasi damokidebulia msoflio bazarze navTobis fasis cvlilebaze. imis
gaTvaliswinebiT, rom bolo aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi navTobis fasis
mniSvnelovan cvlilebas hqonda adgili, bunebrivi airi SesaZloa gacilebiT
Zviri sawvavi gaxdes.
daskvnis saxiT SeiZleba iTqvas, rom kombinirebuli ciklis airturbinul
Tboeleqtrisadgurebs, Tu maTi mSenebloba saqarTvelos eleqtroenergetikuli
sistemis Semdgom ganviTarebas emsaxureba, eqnebaT energiis gardaqmnis ufro
maRali koeficienti da emisiis limitirebuli moculobis SedarebiT dabali
done. Sesabamisad, aseTi sadgurebis mSenebloba ekologiuri TvalsazrisiT
ufro misaRebi iqneba. garda amisa, airturbinuli Tboeleqtrosadgurebis
mSenebloba ufro advilia da mokle droSi ganxorcielebadi. aseT sadgurebs
gaaCniaT gaSvebis mokle periodi da eleqtrogeneraciis sistemaSi avariis
dros SeuZliaT swrafi reagirebis moxdena.
300 mgvt simZlavris naxSiris Tboeleqtrosadguri
naxSirze momuSave Tboeleqtrosadguris garemoze zemoqmedebis masStabi
damokidebulia sadguris maxasiaTeblebze, agreTve naxSiris parametrebsa da
Sesabamisi garemosdacviT RonisZiebebis gatarebaze. sadguris zegavlena
gamoixateba SemdegiT:
landSaftis cvlileba, agreTve miwaTsargeblobis struqturis
cvlileba;
atmosferoSi mavne nivTierebebis emisia;
namuSevari wylis CaSveba;
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
74
didi raodenobiT naxSiris transportireba;
nacris ganTavseba specialurad mowyobil teritoriaze;
gruntis wylebis dabinZureba;
gruntis dabinZureba naleqebis Sedegad;
mimdebare teritoriaze warmoSobili xmauri da vibracia;
eleqtromagnituri velis warmoqmna;
dakarguli Tburi energia, romelic gavlenas axdens zedapiruli
wylebis temperaturaze da
saTburi efeqtis mqone airebis emisia.
garemoze zemoqmedebis ZiriTadi maCveneblebi mocemulia cxrilSi 5.2, rogorc
adgilobriv, aseve importirebul naxSirze momuSave Tboeleqtrosadgurebis
SemTxvevaSi im ZiriTadi daSvebebis gaTvaliswinebiT, romelic zemoT iyo
miTiTebuli cxrilSi 5.1
cxrili 5.2. 300 mgvt simZlavris naxSiris Tboeleqtrosadguris garemoze
zemoqmedebis Sefaseba
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
75
# parametri erTeuli Adgilobrivi
naxSiri
importirebuli
naxSiri
1 sadguris nominaluri simZlavre mgvt 274 274
2 energiis generacia (5500 sT
weliwadSi)
gvtsT/weli 1,507 1,507
3 Tburi energiis xvedriTi xarji kj/kvtsT 10,500 10,000
4 gardaqmnis koeficienti
(nominaluri)
% 34.3 36.00
5 dabali TboSemcveloba kj/kg 17,600 25,000
6 naxSiris xarji 000 t/weli 900 602
7 gamomuSavebuli wida da nacari 000
m3/weli
315 190
8 namuSevari gazis xvedriTi
moculoba
m3/kg 6.56 9.00
9 myari nawilakebis Emisiis
zRvruli moculoba
mg/m3 30 30
10 SO2-is emisiis zRvruli
moculoba
mg/m3 200 200
11 NOx-is emisiis zRvruli
moculoba
mg/m3 200 200
12 CO2 –is xvedriTi emisia
namuSevar gazze
g/m3 274 273
13 sul myari nawilakebis
emisia
t/weli 169 163
14 sul SO2 –is emisia t/weli 1,130 1,085
15 sul NOx-is emisia t/weli 1,130 1,085
16 sul CO2 –is emisia 000
t/weli
2,095 1,477
17 Tburi Energiis kargva mgvt 405 373
18 gaciebis sistemis wylis
xarji
( T=9K)
m3/w 10.7 9.9
Tboeleqtrosadguri wliurad moixmars 600000-dan 900000-mde tona naxSirs
(Sesabamisad importirebuli da adgilobrivi naxSiri), rac damokidebulia
naxSiris TboSemcvelobis parametrze. Tboeleqtrosadguris muSaobis Sedegad
miRebuli widisa da nacris moculoba Sesabamisad Seadgens 190000 da 315000
m3-s wlis ganmavlobaSi. masis balansi mocemulia sadgurisaTvis, romlis
eleqtroenergiis wliuri gamomuSaveba 1507 gvtsT-ia da Seesabameba 5500
samuSao saaTs. mavne nivTierebebis emisiis Sefaseba xdeba savaraudo emisiis
zRvruli moculobis mixedviT da iTvaliswinebs zemoqmedebis Semamsubuqebeli
efeqturi RonisZiebebis gatarebas.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
76
konkretuli Tboeleqtrosadguris SerCevis dros mxedvelobaSi unda iqnas
miRebuli sawvavis sawyisi da namuSevari moculobebi, agreTve kondensatoris
gaciebis sistemisaTvis saWiro wylis raodenoba. aqedan gamomdinare,
importirebul naxSirze momuSave Tboeleqtrosadguris SemTxvevaSi sadguris
mSenebloba unda ganxorcieldes portTan da mdinaresTan axlos. sanapiro
zolidan sadguramde manZili, rogorc wesi, 15 km-ze naklebi ar unda iyos,
rac aucileblad gazrdis naxSiris transportirebis xarjebs. Tu moxdeba
sufsis portis SerCeva, maSin gaciebis sistemisaTvis saWiro wylis wyarod
SesaZlebelia mdinare sufsis gamoyeneba. problemebi arsebobs imasTan
dakavSirebiT, Tu ra manZilze unda iyos Tboeleqtrisadgursa da ports
Soris, raTa minimumamde iqnas dayvanili sanapiro zolis landSaftze
zemoqmedeba. damatebiTi problemaa sadgurisaTvis da gamomuSavebuli nacris
ganTavsebis mizniT Sesabamisi teritoriis moZebna. am mSeneblobis
ganxorcielebisaTvis saWiroa 30 wlis vadiT 5 heqtari miwis nakveTis
gamoyofa 300 mgvt simZlavris sadguris wilad, xolo 30 heqtris gamoyofa
namuSevari nacris ganTavsebisaTvis. amasTan gasaTvaliswinebelia is faqtic,
rom eleqtrosistemis Semdgomi ganviTarebis mizniT axali blokebis damatebis
SemTxvevaSi kidev ufro gaizrdeba moTxovnebi miwasTan mimarTebaSi.
adgilobriv naxSirze momuSave Tboeleqtrosadguris SemTxvevaSi mSenebloba
unda ganxorcieldes naxSiris mompovebeli maRaroebis maxloblad. 300 mgvt
simZlavris sadguris mier gamomuSavebuli nacris ganTavsebisaTvis saWiro
iqneba 45 heqtari miwis gamoyofa, maSin roca Tavad sadguris mSeneblobisaTvis
sakmarisi iqneba igive farTobis miwa, rac saWiro iyo importirebul naxSirze
momuSave Tboeleqtrosadguris SemTxvevaSi. Tumca, arsebobs imis
SesaZleblobac, rom nacris ganTavseba moxdes maRaroebis teritoriaze -
Tundac miwis qveS - rac, Tavis mxriv, Seamcirebs gamosayofi miwis raodenobas.
gaciebis sistemis mier moxmarebuli wylis moculoba gacilebiT meti iqneba,
vidre importirebul naxSirze momuSave sadguris SemTxvevaSi. Tu zedapiruli
wylebi amisaTvis sakmarisi ar iqneba, saWiro gaxdeba damatebiTi nagebobebis
gamoyeneba.
gogirdis orJangis, azotis Jangis da myari nawilakebis atmosferoSi
gafrqvevis Semcirebis mizniT Tboeleqtrosadguri aRWurvili unda iyos
Sesabamisi Tanamedrove mowyobilobiT. NOx-isa da SO2-is emisiis
zRvruli moculoba ar unda aRematebodes 200 mg/m3-s, xolo myari
nawilakebis SemTxvevaSi 30 mg/m3-s. Sesabamisad NOx-isa da SO2-is emisirebuli
moculoba meryeobs 720-dan 750 kg/gvtsT-mde, xolo myari nawilakebis
moculoba daaxloebiT 110 kg/gvtsT-ia. amavdroulad naxSiris orJangis
moculoba 980-dan 1390 t/gvtsT-mde SualedSi iqneba.
garemoze zemoqmedebis Semamsubuqebeli RonisZiebis saxiT unda damontaJdes
namuSevari gazis desulfurizaciis (gogirdis gamoyofa) mowyobiloba 95%-ze
meti efeqturobiT, naxSiris Jangis wvis kamera, maRali mqk-s mqone
eleqtrofiltri da agreTve unda gatardes sxva damatebiTi RonisZiebebi.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
77
msgavsi zomebis gatareba aucilebelia gruntis wylebis nacris ganTavsebis
Sedegad dabinZurebis Tavidan acilebis mizniT.
miuxedevad kargad dagegmili da efeqturad ganxorcielebuli Semamsubuqebeli
RonisZiebebisa, yvela tipis Tboeleqtrosadguris mSeneblobisas adgili eqneba
uaryofiT zemoqmedebas garemoze, magaliTad rogoricaa: landSaftisa da
miwaTsargeblobis cvlileba, mosaxleobis garkveuli nawilis gadasaxleba,
sadguris mimdebared florasa da faunaze zemoqmedeba, mavne nivTierebebis
emisia, rac mJavis Semcveli wvimis mizezia, adamianis janmrTelobaze da
xelovnur nagebobze uaryofiTi zegavlena, da bolos saTburi efeqtis mqone
airebis emisia, rac xels uwyobs globalur daTbobasa da klimatis cvlilebas.
cxrilSi 5.2 mocemuli monacemebi aris mosalodneli maqsimumi, radganac
garemos dacvis mizniT damontaJebuli mowyobilobebis maxasiaTeblebi
gaTvlili unda iyos emisiis maqsimalur moculobebze da Tu vivaraudebT, rom
statistikurad parametrebi (nacrianoba, gogirdis Semcveloba da sxva)
mudmivad icvleba, faqtiurad mavne nivTierebebis wliuri emisia gacilebiT
dabalia winaswar dadgenil normebTan SedarebiT.
Tumca unda aRiniSnos, rom Tboeleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobas gaaCnia
garkveuli dadebiTi efeqtic. magaliTad: sadguris mier generirebuli
eleqtroenergia mimarTulia momxmareblebis mudmivad mzardi moTxovnilebis
dakmayofilebaze, sadguris funqcionirebisas dasaqmdeba 200-mde adamiani,
adgilobriv naxSiris gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi dasaqmdeba gacilebiT meti
maRaroeli. Tboeleqtrosadguris mSeneblobis dros 36 Tvis ganmavlobaSi
dasaqmdeba minimum 1300 adamiani.
5.2. potenciuri hesebis ZiriTadi maxasiaTeblebi da mSeneblobis
xarjTaRricxva
5.2.1. xudonis hidroeleqtrosadguri
mdinare engurze ganlagebuli kaskaduri sistemis mimoxilva
mdinare enguri, romelic saTaves iRebs kavkasiis mTavari qedis samxreT
ferdobze, uxavanisa da Sxaras myinvarebidan, ganixileba, rogorc mdinareebis
erT-erTi yvelaze mniSvnelovani sistema saqarTveloSi. sadrenaJo sistemis
farglebSi daaxloebiT 174 myinvaria saerTo farTobiT 315 km2. mdinare
gamoirCeva wylis maRali nakadiT da amis wyaros warmoadgens myinvarisa da
Tovlis erToblioba. mdinare moedineba viwro da Rrma xeobaSi, romlisTvisac
damaxasiTebelia daCqerebi da CanCqerebi, xolo Semdeg dablobis gavliT
Caedineba Sav zRvaSi. mdinaris sruli vardna daaxloebiT 2600 metria,
wyalSemkrebi auzis farTobi 4062 km2 –s Seadgens, xolo mTliani sigrZe 221
km-ia. grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi enguris wylis xarji saSualod 5.35 milion
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
78
m3-s Seadgens, xolo Sefasebuli hidropotenciali 21 miliardi kvtsT-ia (5.5
miliardi kvtsT ukve aTvisebulia).
mdinare enrgurze ganlagebuli kaskaduri sistemis mSenebloba mimdinareobda
1980-iani wlebis ganmavlobaSi da Sedgeba 5 hidroeleqtrosadgurisgan:
engurhesi (1300 mgvt), vardnilhesi 1 (220 mgvt), vardnilhesi 2 (40 mgvt),
vardnilhesi 3 (40 mgvt), vardnilhesi 4 (40 mgvt) (suraTi 5-2). aRniSnuli
kaskaduri sistema gansxvavdeba sxva bevri kaskadisagan, radganac mdinare
enguri saTaves iRebs da miedineba mxolod saqarTvelos teritoriaze da,
Sesabamisad, ar qmnis ramdenime qveynis mier wylis resursis erToblivad
gamoyenebis problemas.
suraTi 5-2. mdinare engurze arsebuli da dagegmili hesebis sqematuri
mdebareoba
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
79
suraTi 5-3. hesebis kaskaduri sistema mdinare engurze
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
80
ssuraTi 5-4. engurisa da xudonis kaSxlebi da hesebi (Google Earth-dan, 2007)
sawyis etapze kaskaduri sistemis Semdgomi ganviTareba iTvaliswinebda
xudonos (mcire simZlavris xaiSis hidroeleqtrosadgurTan erTad xudonhessa
da enguris kaSxals Soris) da tobaris hesebis mSeneblobas. Sesabamisad,
igegmeboda SedarebiT mZlavri kaSxlebis mSenebloba mdinaris zemo welSi
enguris kaSxlamde. mogvianebiT politikuri winaaRmdegobis da garemosdacviTi
moTxovnebis Sedegad gadawyda xudonhesis mSenebloba ufro mcire moculobis
wyalsacaviT (xaiSis hesTan erTad).
xudonis kaSxlisa da hidroeleqtrosadguris aRwera
mdinare engurze xudonis kaSxlisa da hidroeleqtrosadguris mSenebloba
daiwyo 1979 wels. samSeneblo samuSaoebi mimdinareobda cicabo ferdobebis
mqone viwro xeobaSi enguris TaRovani kaSxlidan daaxloebiT 34 km-Si.
proeqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli iyo TaRovani kaSxlis, sadawneo gvirabis,
wyalsagdebi kaSxali, wyalmimRebisa da turbinis wyalsatarebis, miwisqveSa
eleqtrosadguris Senobis, wyalgamyvani arxis, qveda donis wyalsagdebi
mowyobilobebis da 500 kv-iani gadamcemi xazis mSeneblobas. xudonhesis
mSenebloba SeCerda 1989 wels, ris mizezsac warmoadgenda politikuri
winaaRmdegoba, garemosdacviTi da seismologiuri problemebi. mas Semdeg
ramdenjerme ganxorcielda garemosdacviTi, ekologiuri, gansaxlebis da
seismuri sakiTxebis Seswavla, magram saWiroa maTi koreqtireba mZlavri
hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobisas gasaTvaliswinebeli Tanamedrove
midgomebis da moTxovnebis Sesabamisad.
garemoze, ekologiasa da gansaxlebis struqturaze mosalodneli zemoqmedebis
Semcirebis mizniT da, agreTve, maRali seismuri riskiT (somxeTis miwisZvris
Semdeg) gamowveuli cvilebis gamo xudonis hidroeleqtrosadguris
Tavdapirvelma proeqtma 1992 wels ganicada koreqtireba, kerZod:
miwisZvris saangariSo simZlavre rixteris SkaliT 8 bali Seicvala 9
baliT.
kaSxlis simaRle Semcirda 200 m-dan 170.5 m-mde.
wyalsacavis sarkis zedapiris farTobi Semcirda 5.2-dan 4.0 km2-mde.
wyalsacavis sruli moculoba 364.5 milioni m3-dan Semcirda 230 milion
m3-mde.
sadguris dagmuli simZlavre Semcirda 700-dan 638 mgvt-mde.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
81
Sefasebuli saSualo wliuri gamomuSaveba Semcirda 1660 gvt.sT-dan 1328
gvtsT-mde.
suraTi 5-5. xudonis kaSxlisa da hesis Senobis ganlageba
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
82
suraTi 5-6. xudonis kaSxlis ganivi Wrili.
suraTi 5-7. xudonhesis hidrosadguris ganivi Wrili
suraTi 5-8. xudonis Zalovani kvanZis ganivi Wrili
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
83
xudonis hidroeleqtrosadguri Sedgeba Semdgi struqturuli nagebobisgan:
betonis TaRovani kaSxali, miwisqveSa samanqano darbazi, samSeneblo gvirabi,
Ria tipis 500 kv-iani satransformatoro qvesadguri, mdinare lexaras
nakadis wyalsacavSi gadamgdebi arxi, mudmivi da droebiTi gzebi, gvirabebi da
xidebi.
betonis TaRovani kaSxlis simaRlea 170.5 m. wyalsacavSi wylis nominaluri
done ganisazRvreba 670 m niSnulze. wyalsacavis sruli moculobaa 230
milioni m3, sasargeblo moculoba – 89 milioni m3. wyalsacavis sarkis
zedapiris farTobi ki Seadgens 4 km2-s.
kaSxlis sigane meryeobs 6 metridan (kaSxlis qimi) 45 m-mde (kaSxlis
fundamenti), kaSxlis qimi mdebareobs 671 metrze. kaSxlis sigrZe qimis
nawilSi burjebis CaTvliT Seadgens 532 metrs, aqedan 420 m TaRovani
nawilia. kaSxlis ZirSi gaTvaliswinebulia gasamagrebeli cementacia da
sadrenaJo fardis mowyoba. qveda biefisMmdinare engurSi Cadineba xdeba sami
wyalgamyvani gvirabiT engurhesamde. Zedmeti wylis gadaSveba xdeba wyalgamyvan
gvirabSi xdeba sami Rrma sadrenaJo arxiT, romlis gamtarianoba 1924 m3/w-s
Seadgens. siRrmiTi wyalsagdebi mdebareobs kaSxlis mTavar nawilSi 570 m-is
simaRleze. kaSxlis Txemze ganTavsebuli ori saoperacio daniSnulebis
wyalgadamSvebi brtyeli CamketebiT mdebareobs kaSxlis centralur nawilSi.
Zedapiruli wyalgadamSvebis saproeqto simZlavrea 2609 m3/wm.
samSeneblo gvirabi (baipasi) mdebareobs mdinaris marcxena sanapiroze. ganiv
WrilSi misi zomebia 10 X 9 m-ze, xolo sigrZe 210 m. gvirabis saproeqto
gamtarianoba 1030 m3/wm-s Seadgens.
miwisqveSa hesis Senoba mdebareobs mdinaris marjvena sanapirze, kaSxlis
maxloblad. igi mocavs 3 vertikaluri tipis hidroturbinas. TiToeuli
turbinis simZlavrea 212.7 mgvt. eleqtroenergiis savaraudo wliuri
gamomuSaveba 1328 gvtsT iqneba. turbinebze wylis miwodeba xorcieldeba sami
damoukidebeli wyalmimRebiT da sadawneo milsadenebiT. wyalmimRebebs gaaCniaT
Camonatanis damWeri gisosebi da brtyeli saremonto Camketebi da maTi
gamtarunarianoba 490 m3/w-s Seadgens. Sadawneo gvirabebis sigrZe
wyalmimRebidan avariul saketebamde 284 metria, xolo diametri 6 m. aqvea
sami gamomSvebi mili saerTo sigrZiT 50.8 metri. gamomSvebi milebidan wyali
mdinare engurSi Caedineba 90 m sigrZis sami horizontaluri gamyvani sadawneo
gvirabiT.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
84
Ria tipis 500 kv-iani Zalovani qvesadguris mSenebloba dagegmilia mdinaris
marcxena napirze wyalsacavis Semdeg. Generatoris gamomyvani salteebi
qvesadgurTan dakavSirebulia RerZi-galerea-gvirabis kompleqsis meSveobiT.
qvesadguris normaluri funqcionirebisaTvis mis gverdiT proeqtiT
gaTvaliswinebulia oTxsarTuliani nagebobis mSenebloba damxmare
mowyobilobebisTvis, saamqroebisa da laboratoriisTvis.
mdinare lexara uerTdeboda mdinare engurs zustad im adgilas, sadac unda
aSendes TaRovani kaSxali. mdinaris nakadis mimarTulebis Secvlis mizniT
aSenda 2 km sigrZis gvirabi zeda biefSi, ris Sedegadac mdinare lexaras
mimarTuli iqna xudonhesis wyalsacavisken.
cxrili 5.3. xudonis kaSxlisa da hidroeleqtrosadguris ZiriTadi
parametrebi
parametri sazomi
erTeuli
Tavdapirveli
proeqtiT
(1984)
oreqtirebuli
proeqtiT (1992)
wyalSemkrebi auzi km2 2800 2800
hidro-meteorologiuri
dakvirvebis xangrZliovoba wlebi 46 46
wliuri wylis nakadi milioni
m3 4100 4100
wylis nakadis maxasiaTeblebi:
mdinaris saSualo wliuri
nakadi m3/wm 130.8 130.8
maqsimaluri xarji 0.01
rezerviT m3/wm 2030 2030
maqsimaluri xarji 1.0
rezerviT m3/wm 1030 1030
minimaluri xarji m3/wm 14 14
maqsimaluri Sefasebuli
xarji m3/wm 2609 2609
maqsimaluri xarji
(dakvirvebis Sedegad) m3/wm 2414 2414
wyalsacavis parametrebi:
a) wylis normaluri done m 700 670
b) wylis sarkis zedapiris
farTobi km2 5.2 4.0
g) wylis donis vardna m 55
d) sruli moculoba Mmilioni
m3 364.5 230
e) sasargeblo moculoba milioni 223 89
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
85
m3
wylis dawneva:
maqsimumi m 174.1 150.7
nominaluri m 151.9 143.8
minimumi m 117.5 118.8
turbinebis nominaluri xarji m3/wm 500 490
wylis xarji 1 kvtsT-is
gamomuSavebisTvis m3/kvtsT 2.56 2.96
saproeqto simZlavre mgvt 700 638
saSualo wliuri gamomuSaveba gvtsT 1660 1328
simZlavris gamoyenebis dro saaTi 2400
kaSxlis samSeneblo simaRle m 200.5 170.5
kaSxlis TaRovani nawilis simaRle m 171.5 141.5
TaRovan nawilSi kaSxlis qimis
mTliani sigrZe m 445 420
wyalsaSvis saproeqto xarji m3/wm 1924 1924
ukve Sesrulebuli samSeneblo samuSaoebi (xudonis
hidroeleqtrosadguri)
xudonhesze samSeneblo samuSaoebi daiwyo 1979 wels. samuSaoebis Sewyvetis
momentisaTvis (1989 wlis ivnisi) Semdegi samuSaoebi ukve iyo Sesrulebuli
an mTlianad dasrulebuli:
samSeneblo moednamde misasvleli gza;
mSeneblobaze dasaqmebuli muSebisTvis sacxovrebeli kompleqsi;
samSeneblo moednis gawmendis samuSaoebi;
zeda da qveda biefis zRudarebi;
samSeneblo (saderivacio) gvirabi;
samanqane darbazisTvis gruntis amoReba;
miwisqveSa hidroeleqtrosadgurisTvis gruntis amoReba da nawilobrivi
cementacia;
wyalmimRebi da mimyvani gvirabi;
samSeneblo moednisken mimarTuli mdinare lexaras nakadis wyalsacavSi
gadamgdebi gvirabi;
miwisqveSa hidroeleqtrosadgurTan mimyvani arxebi;
Ria tipis 500 kv-iani qvesadguris gamanawilebeli mowyobiloba;
mudmivi da droebiTi gzebi, gvirabebi da xidebi (40 km-iani betonis gza
jvaridan xaiSamde, eqvsi gvirabi, 100 m sigrZis xidi mdinare
laxaniswyalze).
angariSis mixedviT Sesrulebulia Semdegi moculobis samuSaoebi:
miwis da burRviTi samuSaoebis 60% hidroeleqtrosadguris
fundamentis teritoriaze;
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
86
TaRovani kaSxlis miwisqveSa profili - miwis da burRviTi samuSaoebis
80% da cementaciis samuSaoebis 60 %;
miwisqveSa hidroeleqtrosadguri - miwis da burRviTi samuSaoebis 60%
da betonis da rkinabetonis samuSaoebis 45 %;
samSeneblo gvirabebi (testirebulia wylis gatarebaze);
gzebis samSeneblo samuSaoebis 76 %;
TaRovani kaSxlis marcxena sayrdenis fundamenti (Casxmulia 83 500 m3
betoni);
datborvis adgilze Casatarebeli samuSaoebis 40%
zRudarebis mSenebloba.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
87
Sesrulebuli samuSaoebis dRevandeli mdgomareoba (xudonis
hidroeleqtrosadguri).
gasuli 25 wlis ganmavlobaSi Sesrulebuli samuSaos da Senoba-nagebobebis
didi nawili dazianda, amis mizezi zog SemTxvevaSi 1993-94 wlebSi mimdinare
saomari moqmedebebic iyo. xudonis hidroeleqtrosadguris ZiriTadi
nagebobebis dRevandeli mdgomareoba Semdegia:
ZiriTad nagebobebs Soris yvelaze did yuradRebas imsaxurebs
saderivacio gvirabi. misi saeqpsluatacio vada amoiwura 1991 wels. am
gvirabis saSualebiT mdinare enguris wylis gadagdeba xdeba kaSxlis
samSeneblo zonidan da mis saimedo funqcionirebas gansakuTrebuli
mniSvneloba aqvs kaSxlis mSeneblobis usafrTxod ganxorcielebaSi.
saqarTvelos mTavrobis 2004 wlis 14 maisis dadgenilebiT, energetikis
saministros mier 2004 wels dafinansda mdinare enguris wylis nakadis
Tavdapirvel kalapotSi dabrunebis samuSaoebi da Semomvlebi gvirabis
daTvaliereba.magram adgilobrivi mosaxleobis mier gaweuli
winaaRmdegobis Sedegad samuSaoebi iqna SeCerebuli (ganmarteba: rodesac
mdinare enguris kalapoti gadaiketa samSeneblo moednis daSrobis
mizniT da wylis nakadis gadagdeba moxda Semomvlebi gvirabis
saSualebiT, adgilobrivma mosaxleobam aRniSnuli zRudaris gamoyeneba
daiwyo mdinareze mowyobilo satransporto xidis saxiT. dReisaTvis,
roca aucilebelia Semomvleli gvirabis inspeqtireba da, Sesabamisad,
zRudaris moSla mdinaris Tavdapirvel kalapotSi dasabruneblad,
adgilobrivi mosaxleoba sanacvlod iTxovs axali xidis mSeneblobas).
gvirabi, romlis meSveobiTac xdeba mdinare lexaras wylis nakadis
xudonhesis wyalsacavSi gadagdeba, blokirebulia. wyali miedineba Zvel
kalapotSi, zustad iq, sadac kaSxlis marcxena frTa ebjineba mTas da
ukve aSenebuli betonis fundamenti mniSvnelovnadaa dazianebuli.
arasasurvelia is faqtic, rom mdinare lexaras mier Camotanili natanis
akumulacia xdeba kaSxlis fundamentis mSeneblobisTvis ganuTvnil
teritoriaze.
miwisqveSa nagebobebis dRevandeli mdgomareoba am etapze ar aris
cnobili. amis mizezia Sesasvslel portalze arsebuli mdgomareoba.
mewyruli movlenebis gamo garTulebulia galereaSi Sesvla da
Sesabamisad miwisqveSa gvirabebTan da wyalsacavis zonaSi SeRweva ar
aris usafrTxo. Sesasvlelis inspeqtireba unda ganxorcieldes
profesional mTasvlelTa jgufis mier da mxolod amis Semdeg moxdeba
inJinrebis daSveba miwisqveSa nagebobebis dasaTvaliereblad. Ria tipis
500 kv. qvesadgurisa da laboratoriis Senobis teritoriaze
individualurma mewarmem gaxsna mcire warmadobis sakuTari saxerxi
saamqro.
damxmare infrastruqturaSi Semavali Senoba-nagebobebis mdgomareoba
aseve savalaloa. avto-satransporto saSualebebis meqanikuri saamqros
teritoriaze aseve mowyobilia saxerxi mini-qarxana.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
88
betonis qarxana mTlianad gaZarculia – foladis konstruqciis
elementebi moparulia; darCenilia mxolod betonis saZirkveli da
Selesili, betoniT mopirkeTebuli kedlebi.
saerTo sacxovreblis Senobac aseve gaZarculia da uturadRebodaa
darCenili.
xudonis hidroeleqtrosadguris sawyobisTvis gankuTvnili teritoria,
Senobebi da sofel jvarSi arsebuli amwe saSualebebi teqnikurad
savalalo mdgomareobaSi. sasawyobo kompleqsSi Semavali Senobebi ver
axorcieleben wvimisa da Tovlisgan dacvas.
mdinare laxaniswyalze 100 m sigrZis xidis liTonis konstruqciebi
SedarebiT karg mdgomareobaSia Senaxuli da SesaZlebelia maTi
gamoyeneba xidis mSeneblobis dasrulebisas.
sarkinigzo liandagi qalaq zugdididan sofel jvramde, misasvleli
betonis gzebi da jvaridan xudonhesis samSeneblo moednamde arsebuli
gvirabebi SedarebiT ukeTes mdgomareobaSia. gzebze zog adgilas mewyeria
Camowolili da agreTve adgili aqvs adgilobrivi tipis dazianebebi,
rac jamSi gzis mTliani sigrZis mxolod 3-5 %-s Seadgens.
xudonhesze Sesrulebuli samuSaoebis dRemde ganxorcielebuli Sefasebis
Sedegad dadginda, rom mTliani samuSao moculobis TiTqmis 26%-ia
Sesrulebuli. imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom mSeneblobis procesi ukve 10 welze
metia SeCerebulia, konsultantma yuradRebiT daaTvaliera Sesrulebuli
samuSaoebis mdgomareoba 2007 wlis maisSi ganxorcielebuli vizitis dros.
garda amisa, ukve Sesrulebuli samuSaoebis kidev erTxel Sefaseba
ganxorcielda konsultantis gamocdilebis safuZvelze, romelic mas gaaCnia
mraval proeqtSi monawileobis Sedegad. konkretulad ki iseT proeqtebSi,
sadac adgili hqonda sxvadasxva mizezebis gamo samSeneblo samuSaoebis
SeCerebas da 10 wlis Semdeg mSeneblobis ganaxlebas (magaliTad Chiffa-
Algeria-s kaSxali, hidroeleqtrosadguri Buk Bijela-Srbija & Republika Srpska, kaSxali Selova – serbeTi, kaSxali Rovni – serbeTi.) samSeneblo
moedanze ganxorcielebuli vizitis dros dadginda, rom gvirabebi
dazianebulia (konkretuli dazianeba ucnobia) da agreTve dazianebulia
gruntis amoRebis Sedegad momzadebuli zedapiri. Sesrulebuli samuSaoebis
xarisxisa da moculobis zustad Sefasebis mizniT aucilebelia nagebobebis
mdgomareobis detaluri Seswavla gamocdili sainJinro jgufis mier
myvinTavebis daxmarebiT, Tumca winamdebare analizis farglebSi
ganxorcielebuli Sefasebis Sedegad dadginda, rom arsebul nagebobebz saWiroa
sareabilitacio samuSaoebis Catareba da, yovelive zemoaRniSnulis
gaTvaliswinebiT, Sesrulebuli samuSaoebis moculoba Sefasebulia mSeneblobis
mTliani Rirebulebis 20%-iT.
xudonis hidroeleqtrosadguris mSeneblobis mTliani Rirebulebis Sefaseba
eyrdnoba Semdegs:
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
89
arsebuli xelmisawvdomi saproeqto dokumentacia (mowodebulia
saqarTvelos energetikis saministros, msoflio bankisa da amerikis
SeerTebuli Statebis saerTaSoriso ganviTarebis saagentos mier).
saproeqto dokumentacia, romelic mopovebul iqna sxvadasxva
dawesebulebebidan da organizaciebidan (hidroporeqti,
hidroinstituti, basiani, energoproeqti da sxva) 2007 wlis maisSi
monacemebis Segrovebis mizniT ganxorcielebuli vizitis dros.
saeqsperto monacemebi da dokumentacia, romelic miRebul iqna
xudonisa da enguris kaSxlebis daTvalierebis dros.
samuSao moculobis specifikaciebi xudonhesis proeqtidan, romelic
iTvaliswinebs 200 m simaRlis kaSxlis mSeneblobas.
rbili gruntis amoReba - erTi erTeulis Rirebuleba ganisazRvra
2007 wlis msoflio fasebis Sesabamisad 7 aSS dolari/m3.
kldovani gruntis amoReba - erTi erTeulis Rirebuleba ganisazRvra
2007 wlis msoflio fasebis Sesabamisad 16 aSS dolari/m3.
kldovani gruntis amoReba - erTi erTeulis Rirebuleba ganisazRvra
2007 wlis msoflio fasebis Sesabamisad 16 aSS dolari/m3.
miwisqveS gruntis amoRebis samuSaoebi - erTi erTeulis Rirebuleba
ganisazRvra 2007 wlis msoflio fasebis Sesabamisad 56 aSS
dolari/m3.
betonis samusaoebi TaRovan kaSxalze - erTi erTeulis Rirebuleba
ganisazRvra praqtikuli gamocdilebisa da specializebuli
kompaniebis specialistebTan informaciis gacvlis safuZvelze 146
aSS dolari/m3. amis mizezia betonis didi raodenoba.
saarmaturo foladis samuSaoebi - erTi erTeulis Rirebuleba
ganisazRvra 2007 wlis msoflio fasebis Sesabamisad 1065 aSS
dolari/tona.
liTon-nakeTobebi da agregatebi - erTi erTeulis Rirebuleba
ganisazRvra 2007 wlis msoflio fasebis Sesabamisad 3325 aSS
dolari/tona.
hidromeqanikuri mowyobilobebi - erTi erTeulis Rirebuleba
ganisazRvra 2007 wlis msoflio fasebis Sesabamisad 8000 aSS
dolari/tona.
turbinebi - erTi erTeulis Rirebuleba ganisazRvra 2007 wlis
msoflio fasebis Sesabamisad 16000 aSS dolari/tona.
eleqtruli mowyobilobebi - erTi erTeulis Rirebuleba ganisazRvra
2007 wlis msoflio fasebis Sesabamisad 10600 aSS dolari/tona.
gauTvaliswinebuli xarjebi samuSaoebis mTliani Rirebulebis daaxloebiT 5
%-is moculobiT ganisazRvra.
qonebis kompensaciis xarjebi 500-ze meti ojaxisaTvis, romlebic dReisaTvis
cxovroben momaval datborvis zonaSi (sofeli xaiSi), Sefasebulia
35 000 000 aSS dolarad da ufro metad. samuSao moculobebisa da
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
90
zemoxsenebuli erTeuli Rirebulebebis safuZvelze xudonhesis mSeneblobis
(200 metri simaRlis kaSxlis SemTxvevaSi) Rirebuleba Sefasebulia
971 666 720 aSS dolarad (cxrili 5.4).
hudonhesis mSeneblobis dasrulebisTvis saWiro investiciebis gansazRvris
mizniT saWiroa mTlian Rirebulebas gamoakldes Semdegi Tanxebi (mocemulia
evroSi):
1. mTliani Rirebulebis daaxloebiT 20%
kaSxlis simaRlis Semcirebis gamo 194 000 000
2. dasrulebuli betonis samuSaoebi 68 730 000
3. dasrulebuli miwis samuSaoebi 41 240 000
4. dasrulebuli saarmaturo foladis samuSaoebi
7 306 000
5. gauTvaliswinebeli xarjebi 9 254 000
6. liTonnakeTobebi da agregatebi 6 825 000
7. mowyobilobebi
46 342 000
sul (1-7) 373 697 000
axali xudonis hidroeleqtrosadguris (kaSxlis simaRle 170 m da
mosamzadebeli samuSaoebi) mSeneblobis dasrulebisTvis saWiro investicia
Seadgens 971 666 720 – 373 697 000 + 5 705 280 = 603 675 000 aSS
dolars.
cxrili 5.4. xudonis hidroeleqtrosadguris xarjTaRricxva
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
91
aRweraerTeul
iraodenoba
erTeuli
Rirebuleba
(aSS dolari)
Rirebuleba
(aSS dolari)
1. miwis samuSaoebi
1.1 rbili gruntis amoReba m3 4 148 000 7 29 036 000
1.2 kldovani gruntis amoReba m3 7 925 000 16 126 800 000
1.3 miwisqveS gruntis amoReba m3 731 000 56 40 936 000
1.4 Sevseba rbili masaliT m3 67 100 9 603 900
1.5 Sevseba myari masaliT m3 1 152 300 12 13 827 600
1.6 Tixa m3
1.7 gardamavali filtris zona
1.8 qviSis filtri m3
1.9 gvirabis gaTxra m3
sul 1: 211 203 500
2. betonis samuSaoebi
2.1 kaSxali m3 2 388 000 146 348 648 000
2.2 eleqtrosadguri m3
2.3 gvirabi m3
2.4 betonis samuSaoebi miwisqveS m3
2.5 betoni sisqe=30sm m3
2.6 rkinabetoni m3
2.7 ara-armirebuli betoni m3
2.8 qarxnuli warmoebis betoni m3
sul 2: 348 648 000
3. liTonis samuSaoebi
3.1 armireba 1000t 34 300 1 065 36 529 500
3.2 agregatebi 1000t 10 263 3 325 34 124 475
sul 3: 70 653 975
4. gzebi
4.1 axali mudmivi gza m1
4.2 adgilobrivi gzebis aRdgena m1
4.3 axali misasvleli gzebi m1
4.4 mudmivi gzebis aRdgena m1
4.5 misasvleli droebiTi gzebis aRdgena m1
4.6 asfaltis safaris dageba m2 303000 93 28179000
sul 4: 28 179 000
5. cementacia m1 0
6. sadrenaJo sistemebi hr
7. torkretireba m2
8. mowyobilobebi
8.1 hidromeqanikuri 1000t 14 199 8000 113 592 000
8.2 turbinebi 1000t 5 876 16000 94 016 000
8.3 eleqtro mowyobilobebi 1000t 2 274 10600 24104400
sul 8: 231 712 400
sul ( 1-8 ): 890 396 875
9. gamanawilebeli mowyobiloba jami
10. gadamcemi xazi m'
11. kompensacia jami 35000000
12. mosamzadebeli samuSaoebi %
13. gauTvaliswinebeli xarjebi % 46 269 845
14. mTliani jami 971 666 720
xudonis hidroeleqtrosadguri
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
92
xudonis hidroeleqtrosadguris da wyalsacavis mSeneblobiT gamowveuli
ekologiuri da socialuri zemoqmedeba
rodesac 1989 wels xudonis wyalsacavis da hidroeleqtrosadguris
mSenebloba SeCerda, erT-erT seriozul problemas warmoadgenda proeqtTan
dakavSirebuli garemosdacviTi sakiTxebi. mogvianebiT ramdenjerme moxda
garemosdacviTi, ekologiuri da seismuri sakiTxebis Seswavla. aRniSnuli
Seswavlis Sedegad miRebuli rekomendaciebi gaTvaliswinebul iqna 1992 wels
Tavdapirveli proeqtis modificirebis dros (kaSxlis simaRlis Semcireba 200
m-dan 170.5 m-mde). amis Semdeg garemoze zemoqmedeba Sefasda minimalurad
xudonhesis mdebareobis gamo (yvelaze maRal niSnulze mdebare wyalsacavi
mdinare engurze dRes arsebul yvela wyalsacavTan SedarebiT).
suraTi 5-9. xudonis wyalsacavis mdebareoba
suraTi 5-10. xudonis hidroeleqtrosadguris da wyalsacavis mdebareoba
samganzomilebian formatSi ( Google Earth-dan, 2007)
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
93
wyalsacavis zegavlena klimatze
klimatis cvlilebaze wyalsacavis zemoqmedebis detaluri analizi
ganxorcielda sxvadasxva moculobis wyalsacavebisTvis. Sedarebul iqna savele
monacemebi da gamoyenebul iqna kompleqsuri maTematikuri modelebi. aRniSnuli
gamokvlevebis safuZvelze dadginda, rom mikroklimatis cvlilebaze
wyalsacaviT gamowveuli zemoqmedeba gacilebiT naklebia, vidre es adre iyo
miCneuli.
sxvadaxva tipis da farTobis wyalsacavebze Catarebuli kvleva saimedo
ganzogadebis SesaZleblobas iZleva. haeris temperaturis da tenianobis
garkveuli cvlileba Semoifargleba wylis zedapiridan 1000-dan 1500 m
simaRlis SualedSi srulad Sevsebuli wyalsacavis SemTxvevaSi. aRniSnuli
zonis miRma temperaturaze da tenianobaze zegavlena SesaZloa
ugulebelyofil iqnas, radganac SeuZlebelia am parametrebis gazomva.
wyalsacavis garSemo gansazRvruli viwro zonis farglebSi mikroklimatis
parametrebis cvlileba dadebiTad Sefasda. haeris temperatures rxevebi ufro
dabalia vidre bunebrivi pirobebis dros (zafxulis periodis maqsimumi
SedarebiT dabalia, xolo zamTris minimumi ufro maRali). swored es aris
imis mizezi, Tu ratom moswonT adamianebs didi wyalsacavebis maxloblad
cxovreba. tenianoba odnav ufro maRalia da amas aqvs dadebiTi gavlena
florasa da biomravalferovnebaze. erTaderTi uaryofiTi efeqtia ufro
maRali tenianoba, rac asTmiT daavadebuli adamianebisTvis riskis faqtors
warmoadgens.
yovelive zemoaRniSnulis safuZvelze SeiZleba davaskvnaT, rom xudonis
wyalsacavis zegavlena mikroklimatis cvlilebaze Semoifargleba viwro
zoniT, romelic mdebareobs wylis zedapiridan daaxloebiT 1 km-is simaRleze.
aRniSnul zonaSi gamowveuli cvlilebebi umeteswilad dadebiTi xasiaTisaa da
gamoixateba haeris zRvrul temperaturul doneebs Soris gansxvavebis
SemcirebiT.
aRniSnuli zogadi daskvnebi daadastura hidrometeorologiuri institutis
(saqarTvelos mecnierebaTa akademiis departamenti) mier enguris wyalsacavis
adgilobriv klimatze zegavlenis Sefasebis mizniT Catarebuli gamokvlevebis
Sedegebmac. aRniSnuli kvlevebi ganxorcielda 90-iani wlebis bolos. kvleva
daeyrdno yofili meteorologiuri sadgurebis monacemebs, romlebic
ganTavsebuli iyo mestia/betxos, kaiSis, jvaris da zugdidis teritoriebze.
agreTve iqna gamoyenebuli tbis mimdebare teritoriaze Catarebuli gazomviTi
samuSaoebis monacemebi. Sedegebis mixedviT (xudonis garemosdacviTi da
socialuri skriningis winaswari angariSis mixedviT, romelic moamzada BRL-ma) enguris wyalsacavis mSeneblobiT gamowveuli cvlileba adgilobriv
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
94
klimatur pirobebze dafiqsirda wyalsacavis Tavze, sanapirodan 1-2km-is
daSorebiT. klimatis cvlileba ar dafiqsirebula xeobis zeda nawilSi.
wyalsacavis gavlena tenianobaze umniSvneloa Savi zRviT gamowveul efeqtTan
SedarebiT.
mcirewyliani wyalsacavis SemTxvevaSi, romlisTvisac tipiuria wylis
eutrofuli xarisxi,Umosalodnelia adgili hqondes ori tipis saTburi
efeqtis mqone airis gamoyofas: meTanisa, romelic organuli nivTierebebis
anaerobuli daSlis Sedegad miiReba da naxSiris orJangisa. savaraudoa
gogirdwyalbadis (H2S) gamoyofac, romelic aseve anaerobuli daSlis Sedegad
miiReba da SesaZloa toqsikuri gavlena iqonios wylis florasa da faunaze.
SesaZloa aRniSnulma wyalsacavebma Tavisi wvlili Seitanon globalur
klimatis cvlilebaSi, Tumca es gavlena gacilebiT umniSvneloa, vidre igive
simZlavris TboeleqtrosadguriT gamowveuli zemoqmedeba. meores mxriv,
xudonis msgavsi Rrma da civi wyalsacaviT gamowveuli saTburi efeqti Zalian
mcirea.
eroziaze zemoqmedeba da mewyerTan dakavSirebuli riski
im adgilebSi, sadac kaSxlis, gzebisa da sxva Senoba-nagebobebis mSeneblobis
mizniT gaTvaliswinebulia vegetaciuri safaris moxsna, arsebobs eroziis
warmoqmnis garkveuli riski. SiSvel ferdobebi SeiniSneba intensiuri erozia,
rac gamowveulia 80-ian wlebSi am teritoriaze xeebis gaCexviT. gzebis
mSeneblobac aseve SeiZleba gaxdes eroziis mniSvnelovani wyaro, rasac
SesaZloa mohyves gzis qvemoT mdebare ferdobis destabilizacia. ZiriTadi gza
(jvaridan mestiamde) xelaxla unda aSendes imave ferdobze, 200 metriT
zemoT arsebuli gzidan. sxva damxmare nagebobebi (eleqtrogadamcemi xazi,
cementis qarxana, muSebisTvis gankuTvnili saerTo sacxovrebeli, sawyobebi,
avtosadgomebi...) ZiriTadad ganTavsdeba platos ZirSi da nakleb zegavlenas
iqoniebs ferdobebis eroziaze. rac Seexeba hidroeleqtrosadguris
mSeneblobas, romelic unda ganTavsdes ukve momzadebuli Rrmulis
teritoriaze, mas ar eqneba seriozuli gavlena eroziaze arc mSeneblobis
procesSi da arc samuSaoebis dasrulebis Semdeg.
wyalsacavis mSeneblobiT gamowveuli uaryofiTi zegavlenis neitralizeba
SesaZlebelia SiSveli (sadac ganadgurda tyis safari) farTobebis da
mTlianad mdinaris auzis revegetaciis, agreTve stabilizaciis samuSaoebis
ganxorcielebis da gzis gaswvriv arsebuli zolis revegetaciis gziT,
sadrenaJo sistemis mowyobis da ferdobebis eroziis mudmivi monitoringis
CaTvliT.
zemoqmedeba wylis reJimze
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
95
kaSxlis qveda biefSi wylis nakadis cvlileba zegavlenas iqoniebs mdinaris
patara seqciaze (daaxloebiT 2km sigrZis), romelic mdebareobs momaval
kaSxalsa da enguris wyalsacavis zeda biefs Soris. momavali kaSxlidan
hidroeleqtrosadguris wyalgamgamyvan arxamde (daaxloebiT 200 m) monakveTSi
wylis nakadi mniSvnelovnad Semcirdeba an SesaZloa saerTod Sewydes.
gamonaklisiss warmoadgens wyaluxvobis periodi (gvian gazafxulidan adreul
zafxulamde), rodesac zedapiruli wyalsaSviT moxdeba wylis daRvra. amis
regulireba SesaZlebelia mudmivi wylis nakadis SenarCunebiT SemovliT
monakveTSi. momavali hidroeleqtrosadguris wyalgamyvan arxsa da enguris
tbas (2km-ze mcire manZili) Soris mdinaris wylis nakadis reJimis kontroli
ganxorcieldeba xudonhesis hidravlikuri parametrebis regulirebis gziT.
wylis nakadze mniSvnelovani zemoqmedeba engurhesis Semdeg, mdinare enguris
qveda welSi ar aris mosalodneli.
mosalodnelia, rom mdinaris nakadze hidravlikur zemoqmedebas adgili eqneba
wyalsacavis Sevsebis etapze – qveda biefSi wylis nakadis da enguris tbaSi
wlis Cadinebis Sewyveta. Tumca imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom es droebiTi
movlenaa da zemoqmedebis qveS moxvedrili mdinaris monakveTi daaxloebiT 2
km-s Seadgens, gamowveuli zemoqmedeba SesaZloa umniSvnelodac ki CaiTvalos.
dagegmili kaSxlis qveda biefSi sezonuri hidrologiuri maxasiaTeblebis
Secvlam SesaZloa mniSvnelovani efeqti iqonios enguris wyalsacavSi wylis
donis regulirebis da sezonuri parametrebis cvlilebis TvalsazrisiT.
wyaluxvobis periodis ganmavlobaSi (gviani gazafxuli – adreuli zafxuli)
enguris wyalsacavis SevsebisTvis saWiro iqneba ufro meti dro, rac
gamowveulia xudonis walsacavis Sevsebis aucileblobiT. da piriqiT,
wyalmcirobis perioSi (zamTris Tveebi) enguris wyalsacavze wylis done
naklebad daiklebs, radganac xudonhessze turbinebis wylis xarji bunebriv
modinebaze metia.
wyalsacavis wylis xarisxi
xudonis wyalsacavi mdebareobs mdinare enguris zeda welSi, cicabo
ferdobebis mqone viwro xeobaSi. wylis nakadis warmoqmnaSi sxvadasxva wyaro
monawileobs, Tumca maTSi dominirebs myinvari da Tovli. wyalSemkrebi auzis
farglebSi dasaxlebis simkvrive Zalian dabalia da dasaxlebuli punqtebic
ZiriTadad mdinaris napirTan axlos mdebareobs. mdinare enguris kargi wylis
xarisxi swored am pirobebiTaa ganpirobebuli. wyals axasiaTebs dabali
temperatura da organuli nivTierebebis dabali koncentracia.
tbebsa da wyalsacavebSi wylis xarisxis nebismieri saxis detaluri
SefasebisTvis saWiroa garkveuli sawyisi monacemebis arseboba, kerZod: Tavad
mdinaris da wyalsacavSi Camdinare wylebis wylis xarisxis sxvadasxva
parametri (temperatura, gaxsnili Jangbadi, bioqimiur Jangbadze moTxovna,
qimiur Jangbadze moTxovna, amoniumiuri azoti, nitrituli azoti,
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
96
orTofosfori), klimaturi pirobebi, wyalSemkrebi auzis gamoyenebis
efeqturoba, wylis xarji, wyalsacavis parametrebi da sxva. wina periodSi
mdinare engurze, sxvadasxva adgilas Catarebulia monacemebis aRebis
samuSaoebi, Tumca winamdebare angariSis momzadebis dros ver moxda maTi
moZieba. msgavsad zemoaRniSnulisa, enguris wyalsawavis wylis xarisxis Sesaxeb
informaciac ar iyo xelmisawvdomi. wylis xarisxis Sesaxeb arsebuli
monacemebi moicavda 2007 wlis aprilSi aRebul nimuSebs (BRL-s mier
momzadebuli xudonis garemosdacviTi da socialuri skriningis angariSis
farglebSi ganxorcielebuli savele gasvlis dros). nimuSebis analizis
Sedegad dadasturda, rom mdinare enguris wylis xarisxi im teritoriaze,
sadac gaTvaliswinebulia wyalsacavis mSenebloba - kargia. wyals gaaCnia
gasxnili Jangbadis maRali koncentracia da dabinZurebis dabali done.
azotSemcveli da fosforSemcveli elementebis dabali koncentracia
(nitritebis da fosfatebis koncentracia gamovlenis zRvris qvemoTaa)
miuTiTebs sust biologiur produqtiulobaze. es mdgomareoba
damaxasiaTebelia mTis mdinaris auzisTvis, romelsac dabinZurebis cota wyaro
gaaCnia (dasaxlebuli punqtebis mcire raodenoba, araintensiuri sasoflo-
sameurneo saqmianoba, samrewvelo saqmianobis ararseboba).
xudonis wyalsacavSi wylis xarisxis zogadi Sefaseba ganxorcielda arsebuli
informaciis safuZvelze. rezervuarSi stratifikaciis xarisxis Sefasebisas
erT-erTi yvelaze xSirad gamoyenebadi parametria temperaturuli
stratifikaciis frudis ricxvi (frudi), romelsac aseve uwodeben
stratifikaciis indicators. es indikatori stratifikaciis donis
prognozirebis saSualebas iZleva da eyrdnoba wylis wliuri xarjis saSualo
maCvenebels, wyalsacavis sigrZes, wyalsacavis srul moculobasa da mis
siRrmes. xudonis wyalsacavis SemTxvevaSi frodis ricxvi 0.1-ze naklebia (Fr < 0.1), ras imas niSnavs, rom wyalsacavisTvis damaxasiaTebli iqneba gamokveTili
stratifikacia. meore mniSvnelovani indikatoria saSualo wliuri nakadisa da
wyalsacavis sruli moculobis fardoba, romelic miuTiTebs, Tu ramdenjer
aris SesaZlebeli wylis mTliani moculobis Secvla. xudonis wyalsacavisTvis
es indikatori (4125 milioni m3/230 milioni m3) 18-is tolia, rac imas
niSnavs, rom wlis ganmavlobaSi wyalsacavSi wylis mTliani moculobis
Secvla SesaZlebelia 18-jer anu wylis cvlis periodi daaxloebiT 20 dRes
Seadgens. aRniSnuli faqtebi, mdinaris wylis maRal xarisxTan erTad,
miuTiTebs imaze, rom sukcesiis bolo etapze (roca daiwyeba biocenozis
stabilizacia da igi dabalansdeba biotopTan) wyalsacavis wylis xarisxi
oligotroful dones an, uares SemTxvevaSi, mezotroful dones
miuaxlovdeba, rac damokidebulia wyalSemkrebi auzis aTvisebis da dacvis
xarisxze da, rasakvirvelia, wyalsacavSi wylis donis regulirebaze. aseTi
pirobebi aucilebelia Tevzis im saxeobebisTvis, romlebsac Jangbadze didi
moTxovna gaaCniaT (oragulis saxeobebi, sxvadasxva saxeobis kalmaxi, barbusi,
Tavdida da sxva).
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
97
garemoze zemoqmedebis ufro detaluri analizis mizniT aucilebelia xudonis
wyalsacavSi wylis xarisxis Sefaseba im Sedegebis safuZvelze, romelic
miiReba wylis xarisxis modelis gamoyenebisas. aRniSnuli modelebi
iTvaliswineben ekosistemisTvis damaxasiaTebel yvela Sesabamis abiotikur da
biotikur process. rogorc wesi, aseT modelebSi gamoyenebuli abiotikuri
parametrebia: wylis temperatura, gaxsnili Jangbadi, moTxovna bioqimiur
Jangbadze, agreTve ZiriTadi sakvebi nivTierebebi azoti, fosfori, naxSiri.
biotikuri parametrebia: wyalmcenareebi (fitoplanqtoni) rogorc pirveli
trofikuli done da zooplanqtoni. ixtiofauna naklebad monawileobs aseTi
modelirebis dros.
dReisaTvis ar xorcieldeba mdinare enguris wylis xarisxis monitoringi.
wyalsacavis zemoqmedeba vegetaciaze
svaneTis landSaftisaTvis damaxasiaTebelia mTebi, romlebic erTmaneTisgan
gamoyofilia Rrma xeobebiT. regioni umeteswilad dafarulia Sereuli tipis
da wiwvovani tyis safari, romelic mdebareobs zRvis donidan 0-dan da 1800 m
simaRlis farglebSi. mdinare enguris zeda xeobaSi, gansakuTrebiT, jvaris
dasaxlebis zemoT, Cveulebrivi vegetaciuri zonebi mniSvnelovnadaa
damokidebulia imaze, Tu ra simaRleze mdebareoben isini zRvis donidan.
SesaZlebelia maTi 5 zonad dajgufeba, romlebic erTmaneTs nawilobriv
gadafaraven:
tyis zona zRvis donidan 400-2500 m niSnulis farglebSi;
subalpiuri zona (romelic esazRveba zonas, sadac xeebi aRar izrdeba)
zRvis donidan 1800-2600 m niSnulis farglebSi;
alpuri zona zRvis donidan 2350-3150 m niSnulis farglebSi;
subnivaluri (Tovlis safari) zona zRvis donidan 2900-3300 m
niSnulis farglebSi;
nivaluri zona zRvis donidan 3150 m niSnulis zeviT.
vegetaciis zonis zeda da qveda sazRvari mniSvnelovnadaa damokidebuli mTis
ferdobze. aRmosavleT ferdobebis SemTxvevaSi aRniSnuli sazRvrebi, rogorc
wesi, 100-200 metriT ufro maRalia vidre dasavleT fredobebis dros.
tyis zona swored is zonaa, sadac mdebareobs Seswavlili teritoria. zRvis
donidan 600-1000 m simaRlze dominirebs farTo-foTlovani tyeebi. SedarebiT
wyalmwiri ferdobebi ukavia muxis tyeebs (Quercus iberica), muxisa da
rcxilis (Carpinus caucasicus) da muxisa da aRmosavleTis rcxilis
(Carpinus orientalis) Sereul tyeebs. mcire moculobiTaa warmodgenili wablis
tyeebi (Castanea sativa), rcxilisa da wablis Sereuli tyeebi, da rcxila-
wabli-wifelis Sereuli tyeebi (Fagus orientalis). SedarebiT tenian farTobebze dominirebs wiflis tyeebi, romelSic agreTve gvxvdeba wabli da bza (Boxus colchicus). bza izrdeba karbonatul niadagze.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
98
zRvis donidan 1000-1600 m simaRleze dominirebs wifela, xolo SedarebiT
mSrali ferdobebi dakavebuli aqvs muxis tyeebs da muxisa da rcxilis
Sereuli tipis tyeebs. 1600 m-is maRla wifelas tyeebs enacvleba xSiri
wiwvovani tyeebi. 1600-2200 m simaRlis SualedSi xSiri wiwvovani tyeebi
warmoadgenen tyis dominirebul tips zogierT adgilas bzisa da fiWvis tyis
CanacvlebiT. amgvar simaRleebze maRal mTaSi gavrcelebuli muxac moiZebneba.
ufro maRal niSnulebze dominirebs aryi. zRvis donidan 1800-dan 2200 m-mde
simaRlis farglebSi mdebareobs subalpuri zonisTvis damaxasiaTebeli fiWvis
meCxeri tyeebi, maSin roca 2100-2500 metris SualedSi Warbobs alpuri tipis
juja xeebi.
aseTi mravalferovani ganawilebis farglebSi adgili aqvs sxvadasxva tipis
gamonaklisebs, rac damokidebulia iseT faqtorebze, rogoricaa adgilobrivi
tenianoba an mSrali pirobebi, geologiuri struqtura da niadagi, ferdobebis
daxrilobis xarisxi da orientacia Sesabamisi buCqnaris tipis vegetaciis
CaTvliT.
aqvea merqnisebri mcenareebis da balaxebis endemuri da iSviaTi saxeobebi
(xudonis garemosdacviTi da socialuri skriningis winaswari angariSis
mixedviT, romelic moamzada BRL-ma). svaneTSi kldeebze mzardi vegetaciuri
saxeobebis 50-55% kavkasionisTvis adgilobrivi warmomavlobisaa. svaneTis
ZarRvovan mcenareebs gaaCnia daaxloebiT 1100 saxeoba, maT Soris 264
endemuria. endemuri saxeobidan 212 adgilobrivi kavkasionisTvis
damaxasiaTebeli warmomavlobisaa, xolo danarCeni (e.i. 52 saxeoba) mTlianad
saqarTvelos teritoriazea gavrcelebuli. svaneTSi gavrcelebulia Svidi
endemuri jiSis mcenare: Sredynskia (S. grandis), Charesia (Ch. akinfievii), Pseudovesicaria (P. digitata), Agasyllis (A. latifolia), Paederotella (P. pontica), Gadellia (G. lactiflora), Kemulariella (K. colchica, K. caucasica).Tumca, winamdebare angariSis momzadebis dros ver iqna mopovebuli monacemebi
endemuri saxeobebis ganawilebis Sesaxeb, romlebic gavrcelebulia mdinare
enguris xeobaSi xudonhesis zemoT. aseTi tipis analizis gakeTeba aucilebelia
endemuri, gadaSenebis safrTxis vqeS myofi da iSviaTi saxeobebis gansazRvris
mizniT, romelTac emuqrebaT datborvis zonaSi moxvedra. amasTan aucileblad
unda gatardes Sesabamisi zomebi, raTa minimumade iqnas dayvanili aRniSnuli
mcenareebis saxeobebze wyalsacavis mSeneblobiT gamowveuli uaryofiTi
zemoqmedeba.
zemo svaneTis regionSi aqtualuria bunebrivi resursebis ararcionalur
gamoyenebasTan dakavSirebuli problemebi. am regionSi resursebis ganadgurebas
xels uwyobs soflebSi arsebuli cxovrebis dabali done da mosaxleobis
gaRaribeba, ramac Tavis mxriv gamoiwvia merqnis sawvavis saxiT moxmarebis
gazrda da aralegaluri eqsporti. kidev erTi problemaa saZovrebisa
daMmerqnuli struqturis ganadgureba, romelic iwvevs niadagis intensiur
degradacias da erozias. zemoaRniSnuli Sedegad gaxSirda bunebrivi
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
99
katastrofebi rogoricaa wyaldidobebi, mewyerebi da zvavebi. isini zians
ayeneben garemos da anadgureben ekonomikur infrastruqturas. es kidev
erTxel imis dasturia, rom siRaribis pirobebSi ar arsebobs garemos dacva.
aseTi tipis problemebis gaanalizeba da maTi gadaWris RonisZiebebis dagegmva
yovelTvisaa kompleqsuri proeqtis nawili, magaliTad rogoricaa xudonis
wyalSemkrebi auzis marTvisa da dacvis integrirebuli proeqti. eroziis
sawinaaRmdego zomebi, rogoricaa mcire sakontrolo zRudarebis mSenebloba
RvarcofebisaTvis, tyis safaris aRdgena da regeneracia, xeebis moWris
efeqturad dagegmva, romelic unda ganxorcieldes kvalificiuri specialistis
meTvalyureobiT, satyeo saqmianobis warmoebisTvis teritoriebis da
wyalSemkreb auzSi arsebuli yvela saxerxis samuSao pirobebis mkacrad
gansazRvra - yovelive zemoTCamoTvlili aris kompleqsuri proeqtebis
mniSvnelovani nawili. xudonis proeqtis farglebSi aucilebelia am sakiTxebis
maRal doneze damuSaveba, mas Semdeg rac moxdeba savele Seswavla da
adgilobrivi mosaxleobis mosazrebebis mosmena.
wyalsacavebis zegavlena faunaze
enguri erT-erTi yvelaze didi mdinarea saqarTveloSi da misi saSualo
wliuri nakadi Seadgen 131 m3/w-s xudonis kaSxlis da hidroeleqtrosadguris
dagegmili mSeneblobis monakveTSi. aseTi didi mdinare bunebriv sazRvars qmnis
cxovelebis gadaadgilebis TvalsazrisiT, rac imas niSnav, rom wyalsacavis
mSeneblobis cxovelebs damatebiTi winaaRmdegoba ar SeeqmnebaT. saqarTvelos
garemos da bunebrivi resursebis dacvis saministros mier Sedgeneli
CamonaTvalis mixedviT im teritoriaze, romelic datborvis zonaSi xvdeba ar
aris arc nakrZali, arc nacionaluri parki an nadirobisTvis gankuTvnili
daculi teritoriebi.
saqarTveloSiKkavkasionis qedis biomravalferovnebis proeqti moicavs xudonis
wyalsacavis maxloblad mdebare teritorias. es aris miwis nakveTi, romlis
dacvac aucileblia ori saxoebis SenarCunebis mizniT: gadaSenebis saSiSroebis
winaSe mdgari Capra caucasica (dasavleT kavkasiuri turi) da susti ViperaDinniki (dinikis gvelgesla). arsebuli masalebis safuZvelze naTeli xdeba,
rom Capra caucasica iseve, rogorc Vipera Dinniki gavrcelebulia mdinare
enguris auzis zeda monakveTSi, zRvis donidan maRal niSnulze da Sesabamisad
xudonis wyalsacavi maTze zemoqmedebas ver axdens.
zemoqmedebis qveS kidev erTi adgili mdinare engurze, enguris kaSxlis qveda
biefSi, romelsac SesaZloa mzardi efeqti hqondes engurisa da xudonis
wyalsacavebis erToblivi funqcionirebiT gamowveuli nakadis mniSvnelovnad
Secvlis Sedegad. am teritoriis saerTo farTobi Seadgens 23842 heqtars da
igi mdebareobs mdinare enguris qveda welis gaswvriv. is saxeobebi, romlebic
eqceva zemoqmedebis qveS da saWiroeben gadarCenas arian: Acipenser
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
100
gueldenstaedtii (rusuli TarTi), Acipenser persicus (sparsuli TarTi),Acipenser stellatus (varskvalvuri TarTi) and Huso huso (beluga). Tevzis yvela es saxeoba migraciuli tipisaa, romelTa sasicocxlo cikli Sav zRvasa
da mdinare enguris qveda wels Soris fiqsirdeba. enguris kaSxali gaswvrivi
migraciisaTvis xelovnur bariers qmnis da Sesabamisad SeuZlebelia enguris
kaSxlis zeda biefSi TarTis arseboba. swored amis Sedegia is, rom xudonis
kaSxlisa da eleqtrosadguris mSenebloba ver iqneba damatebiTi zemoqmedebis
gamomwvevi mizezi Tevzebis gadaadgilebis TvalsazrisiT. Tevzsargeblobis
TvalsazrisiT, xudonishesis mier dakavebuli teritoria nakleb yuradRebas
imsaxurebs. miuxedavad amisa, aucilebelia xudonis wyalsacavis faunaze
zemoqmedebis Sefasebis detaluri angariSis momzadeba.
wyalsacavis mSeneblobiT Seiqmneba axali balansi veluri faunis saxeobebis
(amfibiebi, wylis frinvelebi da ZuZumwovrebi) axal garemoSi gaCeniT.
garkveulwilad wyalsacavi warmoadgens axal habitats (magaliTisaTvis
migrirebadi wylis frinvelebis dasasvenebli adgili) da faunis garkveul
jgufebSi SesaZloa gamoiwvios biomravalferovnebis xarisxis zrda. Seicvleba
wylis samyaroc (Tevzbi, kibo da uxerxemloebi) – mdinarisTvis damaxasiaTebel
Tevzis saxeobebs tbaSi gavrcelebuli saxeobebi swrafad Caanacvlebs. kalmaxi,
romelsac gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba gaaCnia biomasisa da TevzWeris
potencialis TvalsazrisiT, advilad Seegueba wyalsacavis garemos.
wyalsacavis mSeneblobiT SesamCnevad gaizrdeba Tevzis biomasa mdinaresTan
SedarebiT. Tumca biomasa darCeba dabal doneze oligotropuli pirobebis da
Tevzis kobrisebrTa saxoebebisTvis qviriTis dadebisTvis aucilebeli
pirobebis ararsebobis Sedegad. garkveuli uaryofiTi zemoqmedebaa
mosalodneli, rogorc mSeneblobis, agreTve wyalsacavis Sevsebis dros, Tumca
unda aRiniSnos, rom es zemoqmedeba droebiTi xasiaTisaa.
zemoqmedeba seismur mdgomareobaze
sxvadasxva qveyanaSi didi wyalsacavebis mSeneblobas Tan mosdevs seismuri
mdgomareobis Seswavla. kvleviTi samuSaoebi fokusirebuli iyo imaze, rom
pasuxi gascemoda Semdeg kiTxvebs: ramdenad moqmedebs mZlavri wyalsacavis
mSenebloba seismur aqtivobaze, aris Tu ara seismuri aqtivizaciis gamowvevis
SesaZlebloba. sxvadasxva zomis da gansxvavebul geologiur pirobebSi
aSenebul wyalsacavebze Catarebuli kvlevebi daskvnebis ganzogadebis
saSualebas iZleva.
xudonis wyalsacavis ZiriTadi parametrebis (SedarebiT mcire sruli
moculoba 230 milioni m3, wylis sarkis zedapiri 400 heqtari, sigrZe
daaxloebiT 8 km) analizis Sedegad saimedo daskvnebis gakeTeba SeiZleba.
aRniSnul wyalsacavisaTvis seismuri gaaqtiureba ar warmoadgens saSiSroebas.
aseTi tipis wyalsacavebSi mgrZnobiare seismografebs SeuZliaT vibraciis
dafiqsireba wyalsacavis pirvelad Sevsebis dros da dauyonebliv Sevsebis
dasrulebisas. aRniSnuli vibracia dabali intensivobiT gamoirCeva da
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
101
mxolod maRali mgrZnobelobis xelsawyoebs SeuZliaT maTi gazomva. am
periodis Semdeg sistema mTlianad stabiluri xdeba seismuri TvalsazrisiT.
arsebul monacemebze dayrdnobiT SeiZleba iTqvas, rom xudonis wyalsacavi ver
gamoiwvevs mniSvnelovan seismur aqtivobas.
mosaxleobis gansaxlebasTan da socialur ganviTarebasTan dakavSirebuli
sakiTxebi
3044.5 km2 farTobis teritoria dasaxlebulia svanebiT. isini dajgufebulni
arian 16 Temad da cxovroben 147 dasaxlebul punqtSi. xaiSi, romelic
warmoadgens erT-erT Tems, ikavebs 30938 heqtar miwis nakveTs da moicavs 10-
10 km-is daSorebiT mdebare, mTebSi gafantul 11 dasaxlebas. xudonis proeqtis
mixedviT wyalsacavis mier datborvis zonaSi xvdeba 6 dasaxleba (sofeli):
xaiSi, zemo xaiSi, qvemo xaiSi, luxi, wvirminda da tobari. gadasaxlebas
eqvemdebareba 264 ojaxi (sul 1000 adamiani 19989 wlis monacemebis
Sesabamisad). Zvel masalebSi miTiTebuli ufro dabali ricxvi (1979).
mosaxleobis garda aqve mdebareobs ramdenime sazogado dawesebuleba,
komerciuli sawarmo da religiuri daniSnulebis nageboba, romlebic aseve
saWiroeben gadatanas, maT Soris: skola, safosto ganyofileba; poliklinika,
maRaziebi, biblioTeka, saxekmwifo dawesebulebebi, sasaflao, eklesiebi da
sxva. gansakuTrebuli yuradReba unda mieqces sasaflaos gadatanas.
gansaxlebisTvis gamoyofili axali teritoria, gadasaxlebis dro da aseve Tu
enguris arsebul wyalsacavze zemoqmedebis Sefaseba
xudonis rezervuari Tavisi mdebareobiT dadebiT gavlenas axdens enguris
wyalsacavsa da hidroeleqtrosadgurze. es gamoixateba SemdegSi:
wyalsacavis SedarebiT dabali tempiT daSlamva. didi mniSvneloba eniWeba
80-iani wlebis Semdeg wyalsacavSi dagrovili danaleqis moculobas
(Sefasebulia, rom kaSxlis zeda biefSi Slamis fenis simaRle 50 metrs
aRwevs);
wylis xarisxi wyalsacavis qveda biefSi ukeTesia, radganac wyalsacavs
gaaCnia filtris funqcia;
wyalsacavis mSeneblobiT kargi pirobebi iqmneba orive wyalsacavis
erToblivi muSaobis TvalsazrisiT, rac ufro meti energiis
gamomuSavebis SesaZleblobas iZleva, gansakuTrebiT ki kritikuli
energetikuli periodebis dros d amasTan xels uwyobs qveda biefSi
wylis xarjis efeqtur marTvas.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
102
rogor ganxorcieldeba gadasaxleba, ganxilul da SeTanxmebul unda iqnas
Tavad mosaxleobasTan.
svanebi didi xnis manZilze izolirebulad cxovroben mosaxleobis SeZlebis
done varirebs Raribidan ukiduresad Raribamde. Amis mizezia niadagis dabali
xarisxi, sakultivacio miwis SezRuduli moculoba, ganuviTarebeli
infrastruqtura, bazarze gasvlis SezRuduli SesaZlebloba da agreTve is
faqtic, rom am regionisTvis damaxasiaTebelia bunebrivi kataklizmebi, rac
Tavis mxriv gavlenas axdens mosaxleobasAda NnivTebze. izolaciis Tviseba,
mkacri klimaturi pirobebi da Znelad mimsasvleli gza nakleb problemas
warmoadgens xaiSSi sxva svanur TemebTan SedarebiT.
mosaxleobis socialur-ekonomikuri pirobebi seriozuli riskis qveS imyofeva
da mosaxleoba Tavs irCens mcire resursebiT da primitiuli sasoflo-
sameurneo saqmianobiT. mecxoveleoba da yvelis warmoeba warmoadgens
Semosavlebis wyaros. regioni yovelTvis iyo cnobili aq moyvanili
kartofilis xarisxis gamo. es aris mxolod im produqtebis CamonaTvali,
romelic naRdi fulis an barteris wyaros warmoadgens. bostneulis, xilisa
da sxva produqtebis warmoeba xdeba sakuTari moxmarebis mizniT. sakvebis
gadamuSaveba komerciuli saqmianobis mizniT aq ar arsebobs.
dReisaTvis satyeo saqmianobaa Semosavlis wyaro imaTTvis, vinc SesaZloa
daqiravebul iqnas am seqtorSi. samwuxarod, tyis safaris masiuri ganadgureba
gamowveulia mTis ferdobebze xeebis ukontrolo WriT. moWrili tye
emsaxureba xe-tyis seqtoris moTxovnebis dakmayofilebas da gamoiyeneba
gaTbobis mizniT. tyis moxmareba kidev ufro gaizrda energetikuli
mdgomareobis gauaresebis paralelurad. zogierT adgilebSi eroziis,
mewyerebis da wyaldidobebis TvalsazrisiT katastrofuli mdgomareobaa, rac
qmnis mosaxleobis gadasaxlebis aucileblobas.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
103
suraTi 5-11. xudonis wyalsacavis mdebareoba
yvelaze didi sofeli, romelic eqvemdebareba gadasxlebas, aris xaiSi.
samwuxarod xaiSis soflis mkvidrebs erTxel ukve mouxdaT gadasaxleba 1990
wlebis dasawyisSi. gadasaxleba arasworad ganxorcielda. daaxloebiT 275
ojaxi Casaxlebul iqna Tbilisis maxloblad qvemo qarTlis regionSi,
TeTriwyaros raionSi, sakuTari fuZidan daaxloebiT 500 km-is moSorebiT.
axlad Casaxlebulebs Zalian cudi pirobebi daxvdaT. adgilobrivi mosaxleoba
Semdegnairad aRwers axal pirobebs: “sasmeli wyali saocnebo iyo. ar
arsebobda eleqtroenergia. saxlebis mSenebloba ganxorcielda droebiTi
daniSnulebis Senoba-nagegobis statusiT, rom gaeZlo mxolod ramdenime weli”.
(informacia moZiebul iqna savele vizitis dros). adamianebis garkveulma
nawilma ver gauZlo am pirobebs da gadawyvita xaiSSi dabruneba.
am gamocdilebis Semdeg mosaxloebas eSinia da ewinaaRmdegeba xudonis kaSxlis
mSeneblobas da kidev erT gadasaxlebas. swored amis gamo gadasaxlebis
efeqturad ganxorcieleba did yuradRebas moiTxovs. Eam amocanis Sesruleba
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
104
unda daevalos kompetentur da gamocdil organizacias Semdegi sociologiuri
faqtorebis gaTvaliswinebiT:
gansaxlebis gegmaSi moxvedrili mosaxleoba mxolod im SemTxvevaSi
gadawyvets wylis resursebis ganviTarebis proeqtTan TanamSromlobis,
Tu darwmundeba, rom proeqti gaaumjobesebs maT ekonomikur da
socialur pirobebs dRes arsebulTan SedarebiT. amis warmatebiT
ganxorcieleba SesaZlebelia im SemTxvevaSi, Tu investiciebis mimarTva
moxdeba im regionis ganviTarebisken, sadac gansazRvrulia datborvis
zonaSi moxvedrili mosaxleobis gansaxleba.
Zalian saSiSia, roca adamianebi fiqroben, rom maTi interesebi
mTlianad ugulebelyofil iqna da Seewira sxvis interesebs. Tu isini
ver ipovian Tavis interess proeqtSi, amas isini aRiqvamen socialuri
zewolis faqtad da kidev ufro intensiurad gauweven sistemis
ganxorcielebas winaaRmdegobas.
gansaxlebis samoqmedo gegmis SemuSavebisas aucilebelia yvela
Sesabamisi faqtoris gaTvaliswineba. maT Soris: samuSao adgili,
alternatiuli samuSaos SeTavazebis SesaZlebloba, asaki da sqesi,
ojaxuri kavSirebi, mezobluri urTierTobebi, ojaxebis ekonomikuri
mdgomareoba, Zveli socialuri stadartebi, da sxva. am sferoSi ar
arsebobs umniSvnelo sakiTxebi. yuradRebiT unda SeirCes
gansaxlebisTvis saWiro axali teritoriebi. Tu gadasaxleba exeba
mTlian dasaxlebas an mis umravlesobas, mizanSewonilia urTierTobebis
da adaT-wesebis ufro detalurad Seswavla da gansaxlebis iseTi
konfiguraciiT dagegmva, rom SenarCunebul iqnas samezoblo, ojaxuri
da sxva saxis urTierTobebi. amiT SesaZlebeli iqneba gadasxlebiT
gamowveuli tramvis minimumamde dayvana. cxadia, rom cxovrebis
pirobebi ukeTesi unda iyos im pirobebze, rac am mosaxleobas
gadasaxlebamde hqonda (religiuri funqciis Senobebi, megobrebTan
Sexvedris adgilebi da sxva). aseve aucilebelia sasaflaos gadatanac,
rameTu adamianebs emociuri kavSirebi gaaCnia maTTan mimarTebaSi.
gansaxlebis dagegmva rac SeiZleba adreul etapze unda daiwyos.
mosaxleobam dauyonebliv unda miiRos mimzidveli ekonomikuri
programebis SeTavazeba kompensaciis saxiT.
yuradRebiT unda SeirCes gadasaxlebis dro. iseTi proeqtebisTvis,
romelsac xangrZlivi samSeneblo periodi aqvs, es procesi SeiZleba
etapobrivadac ganxorcieldes, rac Tavis mxriv mosaxleobis
survilebis detalurad Seswavlis saSualebas iZleva.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
105
Tu mosaxleobis integracia xdeba ukve arsebul dasaxlebasTan,
gansakuTrebiT sayuradReboa im adgilebis urbanizaciis sakiTxi, sadac
ganxorcieldeba axali mosaxleobis Casaxaleba, radganc es SeiZleba
konfliqtebis mizezic gaxdes. Investorma ar unda dauSvas dasaxlebis
mizeziT arsebuli socialuri da komunaluri standartebis gauareseba
(skolebSi daswreba, jandacva, maRaziebis momarageba da sxva). axali
samuSao adgilebi yuradRebiT unda Seiqmnas da gadanawildes ori
socialur jgufs Soris – axalCamosaxlebulebi da adgilobrivebi.
mudmivi da droebiTi gzebi, gvirabebi da xidebi
zugdidi-mestiis gza erTmaneTs akavSirebs samegrelosa da zemo svaneTs da
regionaluri mniSvnelobis matarebelia. aRniSnuli gza mdinaris xeobas miyveba
da erTmaneTTad akavSirebs mestias zugdidTan da Semdgom TbilisTan. gzebis
infrastruqtura mniSvnelovan investiciebs da kapitalur SekeTebas moiTxovs.
xaiSis dasaxleba zugdidi-mestiis gzis gaswvriv mdebareobs. zugdidan gzis
xarisxi damakmayofilebelia, Tumca mestiamde misasvleli gzis Caxergva xSirad
gamowveulia klimaturi pirobebis gamo. dasaxlebebis damakavSirebeli Sida
gzebi praqtikulad dangreulia da zogierTi maRla mdebare sofeli zamTris
sezonis ganmavlobaSi saerTod izolirebulia.
xudonhesis proeqtis farglebSi gaTvaliswinebulia droebiTi da mudmivi
gzebis mSenebloba. garda imisa, rom es gzebi xudonis hidroeleqtrosadguris
mSeneblobas uzrunvelyofs, amis Sedegad gaumjobesdeba mestiis raionis
mosaxleobis sacxovrebeli pirobebi gaumjobesdeba. yelaze mniSvnelovani
gzebia: 40 km sigrZis betonis gza jvaridan xaiSamde, am gzaze mdebare 6
gvirabi da 100 m sigrZis xidi mdinare laxaniswyalze.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
106
suraTi 5-12. xudonis wyalsacavis mimdebare teritoriaze arsebuli gzebis
ruka
istoriul, kulturul da bunebriv Zeglebze zemoqmedebis Sefaseba
SezRudul zonaSi arsebuli kulturuli Zeglebis CamonaTvalia (xudonis
garemosdacviTi da socialuri skriningis winaswari angariSis mixedviT,
romelic moamzada BRL-ma 2007 wels):
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
107
X-XI saukunis sasaflao sofel xaiSSi (gaTxriTi samuSaoebi
nawilobriv ganxorcielda 1979 wels saqarTvelos mecnierebaTa
akademiis, arqeologiuri kvlevebis centris svaneTis arqeologiuri
eqspediciis mier);
zemoxsenebuli sasaflos Tavze XII saukunis eklesia, romelic aRmoaCina
svaneTis arqeologiurma eqspediciam, xolo mogvianebiT ki adgilobrivma
mosaxleobam aRadgina. Eelesia dReisaTvis moqmedia.
imave teritoriaze rkinis xanis metalurgiuli saxelosnos (?)
nangrevebi;
gamoqvabuli sofel xaiSSi SuasaukuneebSi damzadebuli Tixis
WurWeliT, romelic axali gzis mSeneblobis dros dafarul iqna miwis
safariT;
metalurgiuli saxelosno gaRma-xaiSSi, mdinare enguris marjvena
sanapiroze;
Suasaukuneebis nasoflari, sasaflao, eklesia, koSki wirmindSi, zemoT
xaiSuras xeobaSi;
Suasaukuneebis sasaflao, eklesia da koSki sofel idlianis qveda
nawilSi, mdinare enguris marjvena sanapiroze;
XII saukunis koSki, romelic agebulia klasikuri periodSi sofel
xaiSis dasavleT mimarTulebiT 3 km-Si, xudonis TaRovanis kaSxlis
pirdapir.
dReisaTvis sofel xaiSSi sami eklesiaa, romelic datborvis zonaSi xvdeba da
eqvemdebareba gadatanas. am eklesiebidan erT-erTi Zalian Zvelia da didi
mniSvneloba aqvs adgilobrivi mosaxleobisTvis. misi gadatana unda moxdes
zustad igive formis SenarCunebiT (agur-agur). eklesiis gadatanis adgili da
dro unda SeTanxmdes expertebTan, saxelmwifo struqturebis da sapatriarqos
warmomadgenlebTan da adgilobriv mosaxleobasTan. adgili da aq mdebare
istoriuli Zeglebi, romlebic datborvis zonaSi xvdebian, saWiroebs
Seswavlas, analizs Sesabamisi uwyebis mxridan, raTa ganisazRvros Zeglebis
gadatanis da koservaciis meTodebi.
zemo svaneTi
svaneTi erT-erTi yvelaze lamazi da kolorituli alpuri regionia
saqarTveloSi, romelic mdebareobs kavkasiis mTavari qedis samxreT ferdobze,
mdinare enguris auzis zeda welSi, xudonis wyalsacavis zeda biefSi or
mTagrexils Soris - kavkasioni da svaneTi. mxolod erTi mTavari misasvleli
gza arsebobs (romelic mdinare enguris xeobas miuyveba).
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
108
regionis xangrZlivma izolaciam ganapiroba is, rom zemo svaneTi mTiani
lanSaftis gamorCeuli magaliTia Suasaukuneebis tipis soflebiTa da
koSkebiT, kolorituli peisaJebiTa da gansxvavebuli cxovrebis wesiT.
cnobili svanuri koSkebi (ZirTadad agebulia IX-XII saukuneebSi)
turistebisTvis ufro mimzidvels xdis regionis soflebs. Tumca koSkebis
umetesoba dResac gamoiyeneba sacxovreblad an sxva daniSnulebis nagebobad. am
regionSi daaxloebiT 100-mde marTlmadidebluri samlocveloa, unikaluri
freskebiT, moxatulobiTa da xatebiT; samlocveloebma Semoinaxes qarTuli
kulturis unikaluri nimuSebi.
zemo svaneTis svanuri mosaxleoba, eTnikuri qarTvelebis jgufi, gamoirCeva
cxovrebis Taviseburi wesiT da mravalwliani tradiciebiT: isini
yoveldRiurad saubroben svanur enaze (qarTuli enis jgufi), mravalwliani
tradiciebi maTi yoveldRiuri cxovrebis mniSvnelovani nawilia. isini
kerpTayvanismcemlobisa da qristianobis, stumarTmoyvareobis da gvarovnuli
mtrobis kombinacis warmoadgens. cxovrebis tempi jer kidev mniSvnelovnad
gansxvavdeba Tanamedrove msofliosgan.
1996 wlidan zemo svaneTis arqiteqturuli Zeglebi Setanil iqna iuneskos
msoflios kulturuli memkvidreobis Zeglebis nusxaSi (ixileT danarT).A
5.2.2. faravnis hidrosadguri
faravnis hidrosadguris aRweriloba
SemoTavazebuli proeqti iTvaliswinebs mdinare faravanze faravanhesis
mSeneblobas. mdinare saTaves iRebs faravnis tbis samxreT nawilSi, sofel fogas
maxloblad, 2079.5 metris simaRleze. igi mtkvarSi Caedineba marjvena mxridan,
sofel xerTvisTan axlos. mdinaris sigrZea 66 km., vardna – 960 m., saSualo
daxriloba 13%, rezervuari – 2278 km2, saSualo simaRle – 2130 m. mdinare
ikvebeba Sereuli wyaroebidan, Tovlisa da wvimis wyliT da gruntis wylebiT.
wliuri nakadis reJimi ori etapisagan Sedgeba: wylis nakleboba zamTarSi da
wyaldidoba zafxulSi. zamTarSi mdinare faravanis minimaluri nakadia 0.020 m3/wm.
faravnis hidrosadguri mdebareobs mdinaris bolo monakveTSi, sadac wylis nakadi
yvelaze didia da qveyanaSi yvelaze didi daxriloba aqvs. saSualo wliuri
nakadia 16.7 m3/wm., xolo vardna – 400 m. daxrilobisa da vardnis aseTi
parametrebi, agreTve saproeqto adgilis siaxlove ZiriTad da sxva gzebTan,
faravnis hidrosadguris teqnikur-ekonomikur parametrebs mimzidvels xdian.
faravnis hidrosadguri saderivacio tipis sadguria, romelSic gamoyenebulia
bolo monakveTi mdinaris SesarTavTan: 1529.0 gradusidan 1128.0 gradusamde.
dadgmuli simZlavrea 120 mgvt, xolo saSualo wliuri generacia – 440 gvt.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
109
sadguris saTao nagebobebSi Sedis: dabali vardnis betonies kaSxali, Ria
wyalmimRebi da saleqari. zeda biefSi miwis zedapiris Cveulebrivi donea 1534.2 m.
wyalmimRebi gaTvlilia hidrosadguris wylis xarjis 39 m3/wm saprognozo
sidideze. saleqari mdebareobs wyalmimRebis gamosasvlel portalebsa da
saderivacio gvirabs Soris.
faravnis hidrosadguris arsebul energosistemasTan misaerTeblad
gaTvaliswinebulia regionSi arsebul sabazo qvesadgurSi ori 220 kv.
eleqtrogadamcemi xazis damateba. ZiriTadi eleqtruli kvanZi Sedgeba
generatorisa da transformatoris ori blokisagan.
faravnis hidrosadguris ZiriTadi energetikuli parametrebi mocemulia cxrilSi
5.5.:
cxrili 5.5. faravnis kaSxlis da sadguris ZiriTadi energetikuli parametrebi
parametrisazomi
erTeuli faravnis hesi
HPP
miwis zedapiris done zeda biefSi m 1525,0 gamomavali bunebrivi nakadi m3/wm 16,7 hesis saangariSo wylis nakadi m3/wm 39,0 turbinis tipi kaplanis*blokebis raodenoba 3hesis maqsimaluri statikuri wneva m 395,0 saangariSo wneva m 364,0 dadgmuli simZlavre mgvt 122,92 eleqtroenergiis saSualo wliuri
generacia gvt/sT 440
* - savaraudod frensisis an kaplanis
faravnis hidrosadguris mTliani Rirebulebis Sefaseba Semdeg monacemebs
eyrdnoba:
proeqtis arsebuli xelmisawvdomi dokumentacia (miRebuli energetikis
saministrosagan, msofio bankisagan da USAID–sagan);
proeqtis dokumentacia miRebuli sxvadasxva organizaciebisagan
(hidroproeqti, hidroinstituti, basiani, energoproeqti) 2007 wlis
maisSi monacemTa Segrovebis mizniT saqarTveloSi Camosuli misiis
muSaobis dros.
rbil qanebSi gruntis Txris samuSaoebis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007
wlis msoflio fasebiT, 8 aSSDdolari/m3.
kldovan qanebSi gruntis Txris samuSaoebis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra
2007 wlis msoflio fasebiT, 19 evro/m3.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
110
kaSxlis mSeneblobasTan dakavSirebuli betonis samuSaoebis sacalo fasi
ganisazRvra arsebul gamocdilebaze dayrdnobiT da specislizirebul
kompaniebTan konsultaciebis gziT da Seadgina 186 aSSDdolari/m3.
hesis sageneratoro Senobis mSeneblobasTan dakavSirebuli betonis
samuSaoebis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra arsebul gamocdilebaze dayrdnobiT
da specislizirebul kompaniebTan konsultaciebis gziT da Seadgina 240
aSSDdolari/m3.
armaturis samuSaoebis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007 wlis msoflio
fasebiT da Seadgina 1.065 aSSDdolari/tona.
rkinis/mowyobilobis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007 wlis msoflio
fasebiT da Seadgina 3.325 aSSDdolari/1 tonaze.
hidromeqanikuri mowyobilobis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007 wlis
msoflio fasebiT da Seadgina 13.300 aSSDdolari/1 tonaze.
turbinis mowyobilobis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007 wlis msoflio
fasebiT da Seadgina 16.000 aSSDdolari/1 tonaze.
adgilobrivi gzis (5 km) mSeneblobis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra arsebul
gamocdilebaze dayrdnobiT da specislizirebul kompaniebTan
konsultaciebis gziT da Seadgina 1.065 aSSDdolari/m1.
Sefasebis mixedviT winaswari samuSaoebis Rirebuleba Seadgens 10%-s mTliani
samuSaoebis Rirebulebisa (romelSic winaswari samuSaoebis Rirebulebac
Sedis).
samuSaoebis moculobebisa da zemoT CamoTvlili erTeuli Rirebulebis
safuZvelz, winaswari SefasebebiT, faravnis hesis Rirebuleba iqneba
daaxloebiT 113.188.600 aSS $ (cxrili 5.6).
faravnis hesis mSeneblobis ekologiuri da socialuri
Sedegebi
faravnis hidrosadguris Sesaxeb Zalian mwiri informaciis safuZvelze SeiZleba
gakeTdes Semdegi winaswari daskvnebi:
faravnis hidrosadguri saderivacio tipisaa. es niSnavs, rom aucilebelia
kaSxlis qveda biefSi kaSxlidan (gamosasvlelebidan) wylis sanitaruli nakadis
(ekologiuri balansis SenarCunebisTvis aucilebeli minimumi) gamodinebis
uzrunvelyofa. im periodSi, rodesac wylis done mdinareSi dabalia (anu
Camonadeni sanitarul nakads utoldeba), aucilebelia wlis nakadis mTlianad
qveda biefSi, mdinaris kalapotSi CaSveba. am sanitaruli nakadis moculoba
unda ganisazRvros wyalmeCxerobis dros dinebis hidrologiuri analizis
Semdeg, biologebis rekomendaciebis Sesabamisad. rodesac wylis done mdinareSi
maRalia, SesaZlebelia Camonadenis gadagdeba hidrosadgurisaken, magram
sanitaruli nakadi yovelTvis unda Caedinebodes mdinaris kalapotSi, kaSxlidan
qveda biefSi.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
111
faravnis tbasa da mdinareSi daculi an gadaSenebis saSiSroebis winaSe myofi
Tevzis jiSebi ar aris. Tu aris Tevzis iseTi jiSebi, romlebic migrireben
tbidan mdinaris dinebis mimarTulebiT, kaSxlis proeqti am faqtis
gaTvaliswinebiT unda SemuSavdes (kaSxalSi gaTvaliswinebuli unda iyos raime
saxis gasasvleli TevzebisaTvis).
Cvens xelT arsebuli dokumentebidan gaugebaria ramdenad grZelia saderivacio
arxi, an aris Tu ara wylis sasargeblo moculobis maragi rezervuarSi. Tu
wylis sasargeblo moculobis maragi ar aris da zemoT aRwerili sanitaruli
nakadis aucilebloba gaTvaliswinebulia, faravnis hesi garemoze uaryofiT
zemoqmedebas ar moaxdens.
saleqarSi daleqili naleqebi savaraudod kargi xarisxis unda iyos da
samSeneblo masalad SeiZleba iqnas gamoyenebuli. es proeqtis dadebiTi efeqtia.
cxrili 5.6. faravnis hesis saangariSo xarjTaRricxva
Pfaravnis hesi
aRweriloba erTeuli raodenoba
erTeulis
fasi (aSS
$)
Pfasi (aSS
dolari)
1. Emiwis samuSaoebi
1.1 Egruntis Txris samuSaoebi m3 100,000 8 800,000
1.2 ETxra kldovan gruntSi m3 160,000 19 3,040,000
1.3 UmiwisqveSa Txra m3
1.4 Frbili gruntiT Sevseba m3 80,000 9 720,000
1.5 Fkldovani masaliT Sevseba m3
1.6 Tixa m3
1.7 gardamavali filtris zona
1.8 xreSis filtri m3
1.9 gvirabis gaTxra m3
sul 1: 4,560,000
2. betonis samuSaoebi
2.1 kaSxali m3 70,000 186 13,020,000
2.2 hesis Senoba m3 30,000 240 7,200,000
2.3 gvirabi m3
2.4 miwisqveSa betoni m3
2.5 betoni t=30cm m3
2.6 rkinabetoni m3
2.7 ara-armirebuli betoni m3
2.8 winaswar gamzadebuli betoni m3
sul 2: 20,220,0003. rkinis samuSaoebi
3.1 armireba 1000t 3,000 1,065 3,195,0003.2 mowyobiloba 1000t 2,600 3,325 8,645,000sul 3: 11,840,0004. gzebi
4.1 axali mudmivi gzebi m1 5,000 1330 6,650,0004.2 adgilobrivi gzebis rekonstruqcia m1 2,300 133 305,900
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
112
Pfaravnis hesi
aRweriloba erTeuli raodenoba
erTeulis
fasi (aSS
$)
Pfasi (aSS
dolari)
4.3 axali adgilobrivi gzebi m1
4.4 mudmivi gzebis rekonstruqcia m1
4.5 obieqtis droebiTi gzebis
rekonstruqcia m1
4.6 asfalti m2
sul 4: 6,955,9005. duRabi m1
6. drenaJi hr
7. torkretbetoni m2 30,000 47 1,410,000
8. Emowyobiloba
8.1 hidromeqanika 1000t 2,360 13300 31,388,0008.2 turbinebi 1000t 1,700 16000 27,200,0008.3 eleqtruli nawili 1000t
sul 8: 58,588,000sul ( 1-8 ): #######9. Ria gamanawilebeli mowyobiloba jami
10. gadamcemi xazi m'
11. eqspropriacia jami
12. winaswari samuSaoebi % 5,178,70013. gauTvaliswinebeli xarjebi % 4,436,000
14. mTliani jami 113,188,600
P
5.2.3. namaxvanis kaskadis hesebi mdinare rionze
mdinare rioni dasavleT saqarTveloSi yvelaze didi mdinarea. igi saTaves iRebs
kavkasionis ZiriTadi qedis myinvarSi da Sev zRvaSi Caedineba foTis maxloblad
(ix. nax. 5-13). mdinaris wyalSemkrebi auzis mTliani farTobia 13418 km2, xolo
mTliani sigrZe - 327 km. wylis saSualo wliuri dinebaa 127 m3/s, rac 4.9
million m3 wylis wliur moculobas udris. sxvadasxva dros rionze 8 didi
hidrosadguri aSenda: lajanurhesi (namaxvanis kaskadis zeda biefSi), gumaThesi 1
da 2, rionhesi da varcixis hesebis kaskadi 1, 2, 3 da 4. (nax. 5-13).
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
113
grafiki 5-13. mdinare rionze arsebuli da dagegmili hidrosadgurebis sqematuri
ruka
mdinare rionis sistematiuri Seswavla 1909 wels daiwyo. 55 wliani uwyveti
hidrologiuri dakvirvebebis (1931 wlidan 1986 wlamde) da mdinaris
resursebis aTvisebis xangrZlivi istoriis Sedegad didZali monacemebi
Segrovda.
namaxvanis kaskadi sami hidrosadgurisagan Sedgeba. esenia: tviSi, namaxvani da
JoneTi. kaskadSi gamoyenebulia mdinare rionis vardna, lajanurhesis
wyalsacavsa da gumaThess Soris, zRvis donidan 360.0 da 200.0 m simaRleebs
Soris (nax. 5-14).
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
114
nax. 5-14. mdinare rionze dagegmili hidrosadgurebi (namaxvanis kaskadis sistema)
a) sqematuri ruka, b) teritoriis satelituri xedi
tviSis kaSxalisa da hidrosadguris aRweriloba
kaskadis pirveli (zeda) safexuria tviSis hidrosadguri. igi gamoiyenebs rionis
vardnas 360.00 m.-dan 322.00 m.-nde doneebs Soris. tviSis hidrosadguris
kaSxali mdebareobs viwro kanionSi, cageris raionis sofel tviSis maxloblad.
tviSis kaSxlis midamoebSi wyalSemkrebi auzis mTliani farTi 3425 km2 udris.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
115
grafiki 5-15. tviSis kaSxlisa da hesis ganlageba HPP
grafiki 5-16. tviSis kaSxali kveTSi
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
116
grafiki 5-17. tviSis hidrosadguri kveTSi
sadguri kaSxlis maxloblad mdebareobs (nax. 5-15). tviSis hesis ZiriTadi
nagebobebia: betonis gravitaciuli kaSxali, samSeneblo gvirabi, romelic
SemdgomSi saderivacio gvirabad gamoiyeneba, wyalmimRebi, hesis Senoba, 220 kv
Ria gamanawilebeli mowyobiloba da qveda biefSi ganlagebuli wyalsaSvi kamera.
betonis kaSxlis Txemi ganlagebulia 361.50 m–is simaRleze da qmnis 13.1
milioni m3 tevadobis wyalsacavs, romelSic wylis Segubebis normaluri donea
360.00 m. kaSxali Sedgeba wyalsaSvebisa da gravitaciuli nawilisagan (nax. 5-
15). wyalsaSvis sigrZe 54 metria, xolo sigane - 50 m. kaSxlis fskeri
ganlagebulia aluvialur qanebSi da misi centraluri nawili 306.00 metris
donemde Rrmavdeba. kaSxlis sadawneo sibrtye (zedapiri) vertikaluria,
konsolis safuZveliT. qveda nawilis zedapiri ara-vakuumuri praqtikuli
profilisaa. misi kide 345.00 metris doneze mdebareobs. wyalsagdebebi sami
seqciisagan Sedgeba. TiToeuli seqcia 14 metris sigrZisaa. kaxSali isea
daproeqtebuli, rom wylis maqsimaluri xarji 0.1% rezerviT gaataros, e.i.
1974 m3/wm., imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom hidrosadgurSi gamavali wylis xarjia
336 m3/wm. zeda biefSi wylis donis regulirebis mizniT kaSxlis wyalsagdebSi
damontaJebuli iqneba brtyeli dawyvilebuli saketebi. saketebis marTva moxdeba
stacionaluri jalambaris meSveobiT. seqciuri saketi, romelic remontis dros
gamoiyeneba, imarTeba xiduri amwiT.
qveda biefSi gaTvaliswinebulia Camqrobi Wis mowyoba. sadrenaJo galerea
ganTavsdeba kaSxlis yru nawilSi. mogvianebiT is agreTve gamoyenebuli iqneba
inspeqciis dros. kaSxlis yru nawili mdinaris napirze mdebare kldeSia
SeWrili. kaSxlis fskerze, mTeli miwisqveSa perimetris gaswvriv, iqneba
cementis ekrani.
mSeneblobis dros, kaSxlis qvabulis wylisagan ganTavisuflebis mizniT, mdinare
rionis marcxena napirze dagegmilia samSeneblo gvirabi. kaSxlis mSeneblobis
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
117
dasrulebis Semdeg gvirabi daixSoba. misi Sua nawili, romelic 309.35 metris
sigrZis iqneba, SeiZleba gamoyenebuli iqnas saderivacio gvirabad, wyalmimRebTan
da mimyvani gvirabis or mokle ganStoebasTan kombinaciaSi. samSeneblo gvirabis
mTliani sigrZea 525.65 metri. gvirabi 10% rezerviTaa gaTvlilia mSeneblobis
dros wylis xarjze, rac udris 1100 m3/wm.
gvirabis SesasvlelSi ganlagebul brtyel, mcocav saketebs eqnebaT Rarakebi.
wyalmimRebi esazRvreba kaSxlis wyalsagdebis marcxena mxares da 1200 kuTxes
qmnis. wyalmimRebi gaTvlilia 336 m3/wm savaraudo wylis xarjze. maSi
gaTvaliswinebulia saremonto saketebi. saremonto saketebis Rarakebs eqnebaT 4
damcavi gisosiT, rac maT motivtive narCenebis SeRwevisagan daicavs. damcavi
gisosebis gawmenda moxdeba greiferebiT. saketebis marTva moxdeba xiduri amwis
da 50 tonis tvirTamweobis koWis meSveobiT. sagangebo situaciebisaTvis da
remontisaTvis gaTvlili saketebi damontaJebuli iqneba saderivacio gvirabis
SesasvlelSi. maTi marTva 50 toniani stacionaruli jalambariT ganxorcieldeba.
350.00 metris doneze mdebareobs wyalmimRebi nagebobis zRurbli, romlidanac
ori sadawneo saderivacio gvirabi iwyeba. gvirabis diametri 6.5 metria,
mopirkeTebis sigane - 0.5 metri, xolo gvirabis sigrZe – 51.0 metri. gvirabebi
ZiriTad kldovan qanebSi gadis.
hesis Ria Senobis axlos gvirabis diametri 5.75 metramde mcirdeba da betonis
mopirkeTeba rkinis javSaniT Zlierdeba. hesis SenobaSi damontaJdeba ori bloki,
TiToeuli 50 mgvt simZlavris.
turbinebSi ganavali wylis saangariSo xarji iqneba 336 m3/wm, xolo saSualo
wliuri genracia - 395 gvt.sT. turbinis RerZi 319.60 metris doneze
mdebareobs, xolo samanqano darbazi – 332.00 metris doneze (nax. 5-17). xiduri
amwe hesis SenobaSi damontaJdeba. samontaJo moednamde mowyobilobis
transportireba moxdeba samanqano gziT.
tviSis hesisaTvis saWiro tipis turbinebis proeqti xarkovis turbinebis
qarxanam SeimuSava. turbinis tipia 40- -450. muSa Tvalis diametria 5.5 m.,
brunvebis ricxvia 166.7 bruni wamSi, simZlavre – 51.5 mgvt.
turbinis im adgilas sadac wyali gaivlis, wyalsaSvi milebis qveda biefis
mimarTulebiT gaxsnili xvrelebis saremonto saketebze iqneba Rarakebi,
romlebic SekeTebisa da daTvalierebis mizniTaa gaTvaliswinebuli. saketebi
imarTeba xiduri amwis meSveobiT.
hesSi gamoyenebuli wyali qveda biefis kameraSi Caedineba. kamera mdinarisagan
gamoyofilia kedliT, rom Tavidan aviciloT danaleqi nawilakebis SeRweva
wyaldidobis an wyalsacavis recxvis dros.
tviSis hidrosadguris mTliani Rirebulebis Sefaseba gakeTda Semdeg monacemebze
dayrgdnobiT:
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
118
proeqtis arsebuli xelmisawvdomi dokumentacia (miRebuli energetikis
saministrosagan, msofio bankisagan da USAID–sagan);
proeqtis dokumentacia miRebuli sxvadasxva organizaciebisagan
(hidroproeqti, hidroinstituti, basiani, energoproeqti) 2007 wlis
maisSi monacemTa Segrovebis mizniT saqarTveloSi Camosuli misiis
muSaobis dros.
rbil qanebSi gruntis Txris samuSaoebis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007
wlis msoflio fasebiT, 8 aSSDdolari/m3.
kldovan qanebSi gruntis Txris samuSaoebis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra
2007 wlis msoflio fasebiT, 19 evro/m3.
gvirabis gaTxris samuSaoebis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007 wlis
msoflio fasebiT, da Seadgina 80 aSS dolari/m3.
betonis samuSaoebis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra arsebul gamocdilebaze
dayrdnobiT da specislizirebul kompaniebTan konsultaciebis gziT da
Seadgina 186 aSSDdolari/m3.
armaturis samuSaoebis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007 wlis msoflio
fasebiT da Seadgina 1.065 aSSDdolari/tona.
rkinis/mowyobilobis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007 wlis msoflio
fasebiT da Seadgina 3.325 aSSDdolari/1 tonaze.
hidromeqanikuri mowyobilobis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007 wlis
msoflio fasebiT da Seadgina 13.300 aSSDdolari/1 tonaze.
eleqtruli mowyobilobis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007 wlis msoflio
fasebiT da Seadgina 16.000 evro/1 tonaze.
winaswari samuSaoebis Rirebuleba Sefasda rogorc mTliani samuSaoebis
Rirebulebis 10%.
gauTvaliswinebeli xarjebi Sefasda rogorc 10%mTliani samuSaoebis
Rirebulebisa (winaswari samuSaoebis Rirebulebis CaTvliT).
tviSis hesi mdebareobs saqarTvelos da mTeli regionis yvelaze ufro
seismiur zonaSi.
adgilobrivi gzis (12 km) mSeneblobis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra arsebul
gamocdilebaze dayrdnobiT da specislizirebul kompaniebTan
konsultaciebis gziT da Seadgina 1.330 aSSDdolari/m1.
saxlebis da miwebis eqspropriaciis xarjebi Sefasebulia rogorc
7000000 aSS dolari.
samuSaoebis moculobebisa da zemoT CamoTvlili erTeuli Rirebulebis
safuZvelze, winaswari SefasebebiT, tviSi hesis Rirebuleba iqneba daaxloebiT
146.072.700 aSS $.
namaxvanis kaSxlis da hesis aRweriloba
namaxvanis hidrosadguri kaskadis meore safexurs warmoadgens. igi gamoiyenebs
rionis vardnas 310.00 m.-dan 232.00 m.-nde doneebs Soris. namaxvanis
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
119
hidrosadguris kaSxali mdebareobs viwro kanionSi, wyaltubos raionis sofel
namaxvanis maxloblad, 3 kilometriT zemoT mdinare rionze.
namaxvanis hesis ZiriTadi nagebobebia (nax. 5-15): betonis TaRovani kaSxali,
samSeneblo gvirabi, saeqspluatacio wyalsagdebi, kaSxlis siRrmuli wyalsagdebi
(wyaldidobis dros Warbi wylis gamosaSvebi), hesis Senoba da wylis gamomSvebi
arxi.
betonis TaRovani kaSxali kldovan qanebze - tufobreqCiebze dgas. wylis
Segubebis normaluri donea 310.00 m. wyalsacavis mTliani tevadobaa 156
milioni m3, sasargeblo moculoba – 52 milioni m3. wyalsacavis wylis zedapiri
– 4.9 km2. TaRovani kaSxali eyrdnoba saZirkvels, romelic dgas mdgrad kldovan
danaleq qanebze, xolo mdinaris kalapotis adgilas - betonis fuZeze.
kaSxlis maqsimaluri simaRlea 111 m, TaRis simaRlea 86 metri, xolo fuZis
simaRle 25 metri. kaSxlis sigane cvalebadobs 3.5 metridan Txemis adgilze,
13.4 metramde fuZis adgilas. kaSxlis Txemi mdebareobs 311.00 m doneze (nax. 5-
19). kaSxlis sigrZe Txemis gaswvriv, boZebis gamoklebiT, 315 metria, xolo
malis gaswvriv – 272 m. malis Sefardeba kaSxlis simaRlesTan aris 3.2, xolo
kaSxlis Ziris sisqis Sefardeba mis simaRlesTan udris 0.156-s. proeqtiT
gansazRvrulia, rom kaSxlis ZirSi iqneba 15 metris siRrmis rkinabetoni da
antifiltraciuli ekranis 45 metris siRrmis ori Sre. sadrenaJo ekrani,
40 metris siRrmis WiT, mowyobili iqneba antifiltraciuli faris qvemoT.
grafiki 5-18. namaxvanis kaSxlisa da hesis ganlageba
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
120
cxrili 5.7. tviSis hidrosadguris saangariSo Rirebuleba
tviSi hesi
aRweriloba erTeuli raodenoba
erTeulis
fasi (aSS
$)
Pfasi (aSS
dolari)
1. Emiwis samuSaoebi
1.1 Egruntis Txris samuSaoebi m3 80,000 8 640,0001.2 ETxra kldovan gruntSi m3 200,000 19 3,800,0001.3 UmiwisqveSa Txra m3
1.4 Frbili gruntiT Sevseba m3 50,000 9 450,0001.5 Fkldovani masaliT Sevseba m3
1.6 Tixa m3
1.7 gardamavali filtris zona 4400 33 1452001.8 xreSis filtri m3
1.9 gvirabis gaTxra m3 50000 80 4000000sul 1: 9,035,2002. betonis samuSaoebi
2.1 kaSxali m3 105,000 186 19,530,0002.2 hesis Senoba m3 34,000 212 7,208,0002.3 gvirabi m3 15000 290 43500002.4 miwisqveSa betoni m3
2.5 betoni t=30cm m3
2.6 rkinabetoni m3
2.7 ara-armirebuli betoni m3
2.8 winaswar gamzadebuli betoni m3 2000 465 930000sul 2: 32,018,0003. rkinis samuSaoebi
3.1 armireba 1000t 3,100 1,065 3,301,5003.2 mowyobiloba 1000t 1,000 3325,00 3,325,000sul 3: 6,626,5004. gzebi
4.1 axali mudmivi gzebi m1 12,000 1330 15,960,000
4.2 adgilobrivi gzebis rekonstruqcia m1
4.3 axali adgilobrivi gzebi m1
4.4 mudmivi gzebis rekonstruqcia m1
4.5 obieqtis droebiTi gzebis
rekonstruqcia m1
4.6 asfalti m2
sul 4: 15,960,000
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
121
5. duRabi m1 6000 185 11100006. drenaJi hr
7. torkretbetoni m2
8. Emowyobiloba
8.1 hidromeqanika 1000t 2,300 13300 30,590,0008.2 turbinebi 1000t
8.3 eleqtruli nawili 1000t 1500 16000 24000000sul 8: 54,590,000sul ( 1-8 ): 119,339,7009. Ria gamanawilebeli mowyobiloba jami 270000010. gadamcemi xazi m' 9000 400 360000011. eqspropriacia jami 7000000
12. winaswari samuSaoebi % 6,550,00013. gauTvaliswinebeli xarjebi % 6,883,000
14. mTliani jami 146,072,700
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
122
grafiki 5-19. namaxvanis kaSxali da hidrosadguri kveTSi
TaRovan kaSxals eqneba ori wyalsagdebi. maTi RerZi iqneba 236.000 metris
doneze. wyali gaivlis am wyalsagdebebSi rodesac xarji dabali iqneba.
samSeneblo gvirabis saxSobi daxuruli unda iyos da wyalsacavis Sevsebis sawyis
stadiaze saWiroa wylis xarjis regulireba. TiToeuli Sevsebis dros wylis
Semavali nakadi unda iyos 360 m3/wm. TiToeuli wyalsagdebis liTonis milebis
diametria 5.0 metri, sigrZe – 77.0 metri. wyalsagdebebi iwyeba TaRovani
kaSxlis korpusSi, xolo maTi danarCeni nawili gadis qveda biefSi – betonis
korpusSi, romelic mdebareobs hesis Senobasa da mdinaris marcxena napiris
kldovan ferdobs Soris. manZili wyalsagdebebs Soris aris 7.3 metri.
ZiriTadi da saremonto saketebi mowyobili iqneba qveda biefSi mdebare
xvrelebSi. es saketebi gaTvlilia maqsimalur wnevaze, romelic SeiZleba
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
123
warmoSvas kaSxalma, radganac wylis gamosaSvebis gamoyeneba SeiZleba hesis
uwyveti muSaobis dros, wyalsacavis dasaclelad. saetebis marTva xdeba
hidravlikuri amZravis meSveobiT, romelic mdebareobs 250.0 metris doneze. 697
metris sigrZis samSeneblo gvirabi aSendeba mdinaris marcxena napirze,
mSeneblobis periodSi mdinaris wylis gadasagdebad. gvirabis Sesasvlelis
zRurblis portali ganTavsdeba 234.35 metris doneze. gvirabi gaTvlilia 1700
m3/wm wylis xarjze (0.1% rezerviT). brtyeli, mcocavi saketebi gamoyenebuli
iqneba samSeneblo gvirabis dasaxurad. roca gvirabis daxurvis dro mova,
saketebi gvirabis zRurblze damontaJdeba avtokranis meSveobiT.
saeqspluatacio wyalsagdebi ganlagebuli iqneba marcxena napirze, rom
maqsimaluri wylis xarji uzrunvelyos. wyalsagdebi Sedgeba Ria
koleqtorisagan da daxrili gvirabisagan, romelic samSeneblo gvirabs uerTdeba
590 kuTxiT. wyalsagdebi gaTvlilia 3325 m3/wm wylis xarjze (0.01% rezerviT).
samSeneblo gvirabi da wyalsagdebi gaivlian tufobrekCiebs da tufo-xreSs.
horizontaluri koleqtoris wina xazi 10.0 metris sigrZisaa. gardamavali
monakveTis sigrZe 16.0 metria, xolo daxrili monakveTisa - 25.0 metri. wylis
gamosaSvebad, zeda biefSi wylis donis regulirebisa da motivtive sagnebis
SeRwevisagan dasacavad saeqspluatacio wyalsagdebs eqneba ori saketi,
segmenturi sarqvelebiT. saketebis marTva moxdeba hidravlikuri amZravebiT.
segmenturi saketebis montaJisa da SekeTebisaTvis gamoyenebuli iqneba
stacionaluri jalambari. brtyeli mcocavi saketebi damontaJdeba segmenturi
saketis win. misi marTva moxdeba Sekiduli amwis meSveobiT.
ori wyalmimRebi koSki ganlagebulia TaRovan kaSxalze, zeda biefis mxridan,
sadac turbinis ori wyalsatari arxi iwyeba. isini kaSxlis saxSobSi gaivlian.
TiToeuli wyalsatari arxis saangariSo wylis xarjia 125 m3/wm. koSkis
simaRlea 81.7 metri. wyalmimRebis zRurbli mdebareobs 288.0 metris doneze.
wyalmimRebis TiToeuli koSks aqvs eqvsi xvreli, romlebic aRWurvilia damcavi
gisosebiT, narCenebis SeRwevisagan dasacavad.
kaSxlis axlos mdebare hesis Ria Senoba qveda biefSia, mdinare rionis
kalapotSi, 202.00 da 250.00 metris doneebs Soris (nax. 5-19). hesis Senobis
SigniT iro bloki moewyoba, TiToeuli 105 megavatis simZlavris. hesis
saangariSo wylis xarjia 366 m3/wm, saangariSo dawneva – 64.9 metri.
eleqtroenergiis wliuri generacia iqneba 928.0 milioni kvt.sT. turbinas wyali
miewodeba betoniT dafaruli metalis wyalsatari arxiT.
Sualeduri sarTulis Weri moewyoba generatoris garsze da hesis Senobis
betonis kedlebze. samanqano darbazi gadaixureba 25 metris siganis rkinabetonis
blokiT. samanqano darbazSi gaTvaliswinebulia 20 metris koWis mqone xiduri
amwe.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
124
samontaJo moedani moewyoba meore blokis marjvniv, samanqano darbazis doneze,
231.50 metrze. mowyobiloba Setanili iqneba samontaJo moedanze, hesis
gadaxurul SenobaSi, 5.0 x 5.0 metris Sesasvlelidan. samontaJo moedanze, hesis
Senobamde mowyobilobis transportireba moxdeba saavtomobilo gziT.
namaxvanis hesze dasamontaJebeli turbinebis proeqti xarkovis turbinebis
qarxanas unda SeeimuSavebina. turbinis tipia 90- -450. turbinis frTa
vertikalur-diagonaluri mimarTulebiT unda brunavdes.
daTvalierebis da SekeTebis dros, qveda biefSi ganlagebuli saventilacio
milebis xvrelebi daixureba brtyeli saketis meSveobiT. farebis marTva moxdeba
xiduri amwiT, romelsac babiniani saketuri eqneba.
xiduri amwe damontaJdeba hesis samanqano darbazSi. misi tvirTamweoba iqneba
400/80 tona. hesSi gamoyenebuli wyali rionSi Cava wyalsaSvi arxis meSveobiT.
namaxvanis hidrosadguris mTliani Rirebulebis Sefaseba gakeTda Semdeg
monacemebze dayrdnobiT:
proeqtis arsebuli xelmisawvdomi dokumentacia (miRebuli energetikis
saministrosagan, msofio bankisagan da USAID–sagan);
proeqtis dokumentacia miRebuli sxvadasxva organizaciebisagan
(hidroproeqti, hidroinstituti, basiani, energoproeqti) 2007 wlis
maisSi monacemTa Segrovebis mizniT saqarTveloSi Camosuli misiis
muSaobis dros.
rbil qanebSi gruntis Txris samuSaoebis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007
wlis msoflio fasebiT, 8 aSSDdolari/m3.
kldovan qanebSi gruntis Txris samuSaoebis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra
2007 wlis msoflio fasebiT, 19 evro/m3.
TaRovani kaSxlisaTvis saWiro betonis samuSaoebis sacalo fasi
ganisazRvra arsebul gamocdilebaze dayrdnobiT da specislizirebul
kompaniebTan konsultaciebis gziT da Seadgina 186 aSSDdolari/m3, didi
raodenobis betonis saWiroebis gamo.
armaturis samuSaoebis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007 wlis msoflio
fasebiT da Seadgina 1.065 aSSDdolari/tona.
rkinis/mowyobilobis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007 wlis msoflio
fasebiT da Seadgina 3.325 aSSDdolari/1 tonaze.
turbinebis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007 wlis msoflio fasebiT da
Seadgina 21.500 aSSDdolari/1 tonaze.
eleqtruli mowyobilobis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007 wlis msoflio
fasebiT da Seadgina 16.000 aSSDdolari/1 tonaze.
winaswari samuSaoebis Rirebuleba Sefasda rogorc mTliani samuSaoebis
Rirebulebis 10%.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
125
gauTvaliswinebeli xarjebi Sefasda rogorc 10% mTliani samuSaoebis
Rirebulebisa (winaswari samuSaoebis Rirebulebis CaTvliT).
namaxvanis hesi mdebareobs saqarTvelos da mTeli regionis yvelaze ufro
seismiur zonaSi.
sxva proeqtebisagan gansxvavebiT, am proeqtis ganxorcielebisaTvis aucilebelia
36 km adgilobrivi gzebis da mSeneblobis obieqtze 30 km axali gzebis
mSenebloba. agreTve saWiroa mudmivi gzebis 80 km-is da mSeneblobis obieqtze 10
km gzis aRdgena. eqspropriaciis Rirebuleba savaraudod Seadgens 26.500.000 aSS dolars.
samuSaoebis moculobebisa da zemoT CamoTvlili sacalo Rirebulebis
safuZvelze, winaswari SefasebebiT, namaxvanis hesis Rirebuleba iqneba
daaxloebiT 322,443,552 aSS $.
cxrili 5.8. namaxvanis hidrosadguris saangariSo Rirebuleba
namaxvanis hidrosadguri
aRweriloba erTeuli raodenoba
erTeulis
fasi (aSS
$)
Pfasi (aSS
dolari)
1. Emiwis samuSaoebi
1.1 Egruntis Txris samuSaoebi m3 128,170 8 769,020 1.2 ETxra kldovan gruntSi m3 102,500 19 1,947,500 1.3 UmiwisqveSa Txra m3
1.4 Frbili gruntiT Sevseba m3 38,120 9 343,080 1.5 Fkldovani masaliT Sevseba m3 225900 12 2710800 1.6 Tixa m3
1.7 gardamavali filtris zona
1.8 xreSis filtri m3
1.9 gvirabis gaTxra m3 113900 80 9112000 sul 1: 14,882,400 2. betonis samuSaoebi
2.1 kaSxali m3 224,400 186 41,738,400 2.2 hesis Senoba m3 80,210 200 16,042,000 2.3 gvirabi m3 21670 280 6067600 2.4 miwisqveSa betoni m3
2.5 betoni t=30cm m3
2.6 rkinabetoni m3 2200 212 466400 2.7 ara-armirebuli betoni m3
2.8 winaswar gamzadebuli betoni m3 2600 465 1209000 sul 2: 65,523,400 3. rkinis samuSaoebi
3.1 armireba 1000t 7,030 1,065 7,486,950 3.2 mowyobiloba 1000t 0,385 3,325 1,280,125 sul 3: 8,767,075 4. gzebi
4.1 axali mudmivi gzebi m1 36,000 1330 47,880,000
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
126
namaxvanis hidrosadguri
aRweriloba erTeuli raodenoba
erTeulis
fasi (aSS
$)
Pfasi (aSS
dolari)
4.2 adgilobrivi gzebis
rekonstruqcia m1 60,100 133 7,993,300 4.3 axali adgilobrivi gzebi m1 29940 330 9880200 4.4 mudmivi gzebis rekonstruqcia m1 16940 265 4489100 4.5 obieqtis droebiTi gzebis
rekonstruqcia m1 10500 80 840000 4.6 asfalti m2
sul 4: 71,082,600 5. duRabi m1 25000 185 4625000 6. drenaJi hr 22860 13 297180 7. torkretbetoni m2 33,077 47 1,554,619 8. Emowyobiloba
8.1 hidromeqanika 1000t
8.2 turbinebi 1000t 1,340 21500 28,810,000 8.3 eleqtruli nawili 1000t 1,590 16000 25440000 sul 8: 54,250,000 sul ( 1-8 ): 220,982,274 9. Ria gamanawilebeli mowyobiloba jami
10. gadamcemi xazi m' 47000 400 19000000 11. eqspropriacia jami 26500000
12. winaswari samuSaoebi % 26,648,227 13. gauTvaliswinebeli xarjebi % 29,313,050
14. mTliani jami 322,443,552
JoneTis kaSxlis da hesis aRweriloba
JoneTis hidrosadguri kaskadis bolo safexurs warmoadgens. igi gamoiyenebs
rionis vardnas namaxvanis hesis qveda biefidan (232.00 m.) gumaTi 1-is
wyalsacavis (200.00 m) doneebs Soris. JoneTis hidrosadguri mdebareobs
sofel JoneTis maxloblad, mdinare rionze, namaxvanis hesidan 3 kilometriT
qvemoT.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
127
grafiki 5-20. JoneTis kaSxlisa da hidrosadguris ganlageba HPP
grafiki 5-21. JoneTis hidrosadguri kveTSi HPP
JoneTis hesis ZiriTadi nagebobebia (nax. 5-21): qvanayari kaSxali, zedapiruli
wylsaSvebi da wyalqveSa wyalsagdebi, hesis Senoba, Camqrobi Wa, samSeneblo
gvirabi, saeqspluatacio wyalsagdebi, kaSxlis siRrmuli wyalsagdebi
(wyaldidobis dros Warbi wylis gamosaSvebi) da wylis gadamyvani arxi, romelic
mSeneblobis dros gamoiyeneba.
qvanayari kaSxali dgas mdinaris napiris, anu 205.30 metris doneze. wylis
Segubebis normaluri donea 232.00 m. wyalsacavis mTliani tevadobaa 12.5
milioni m3, sasargeblo moculoba – 6.0 milioni m3. wyalsacavis wylis
zedapiris sarke – 1.25 km2, minimumi – 8 metri, sigrZe 174 metri. kaSxali
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
128
Sedgeba Tixis gulnarisagan, dafxvnili xreSis filtrebisagan da sxva sayrdeni
qvis prizmebisagan. zeda prizmis daxrilobaa 1:1.7 da 1:1.6, xolo qveda prizmisa
1:1.6 da 1:2.0. kaSxlis zeda prizma uerTdeba bariers, romelic kaxSlis
korpusSi iWreba. kaSxlis mzidi prizmebi qvanayaria. mSeneblobis dros
amoTxrili gamosadegi masalebi qvanayari dambis mosawyobad gamoiyeneba. zeda
ferdi gamagrebuli iqneba ufro msxvili qvebis 2 metris sisqis SriT.
mSeneblobis dros wylis dinebis Sesacvlelad gakeTdeba SemovliTi arxi.
SemovliTi arxis zoma da daxriloba (i=0.01) ganisazRvra hidravlikuri
gaangariSebebis safuZvelze. wylis saangariSo xarjia 1700 m3/wm., rac
iTvaliswinebs 1% rezervs da 10m/wm dasaSveb siCqares. kaSxlis kveTs aqvs
trapeciis forma. misi fskeris siganea 36.0 metri. arxis daxrilobaa 3:1; arxis
sigrZe – 199.5 metri. wyalmimRebis zRurbli ganlagebuli iqneba 190.00 metris
doneze.
hesis Senoba (grafiki 5-20) ganTavsdeba md. rionis marcxena napirze. samanqano
darbazi moewyoba 203.60 metris doneze. ori bloki, TiToeuli 45 mgvt
simZlavris, ganTavsdeba hesis Senobis SigniT. turbinis tipi iqneba 30/800- -500, mbrunavi frTiT. wylis saangariSo xarji iqneba 202.5 m3/s, saangariSo
dawneva 26.0m.
samontaJo moedani moewyoba me-2 blokis marcxniv, samanqano darbazis doneze anu
203.60 metrze. samontaJo moedanze misvla SesaZlebeli iqneba samanqano gziT.
samanqano darbazis SigniT montaJi ganxorcieldeba xiduri amwiT.
hesis Senobis saxuravia praqtikuli profiles mqone wyalsagdebi, romelic
gamoiyeneba wyaldidobis wylis nawilis dasaRvrelad hesis muSaobis dros.
yvelaze maRali wertilia 223.38 metris doneze. wyalsagdebidan wylis
saangariSo xarji iqneba 1570 m3/wm. misi gansazRvrisas mxedvelobaSi iyo
miRebuli wylis maqsimaluri nakadi 3700m3/wm (0.01% rezerviT). wylis sarini
arxis wina nawili 45 metria da iyofa sam zolad.
ZiriTadi saketebi (15.00-8.00-8.62) ganlagebuli iqneba zedapiruli wyalsagdebis
dasawyisSi. maTi marTva moxdeba stacionaruli amwe meqanizmiT. fskeris
wyalsagdebi blokebs emijneba mdinaris marcxena napiris mxridan. misi
gamtarianoba iqneba 1730 m3/wm.
siRrmuli wyalsagdebis zRurbli iqneba 195.10 m, sigrZe – 54.90 m., qveda biefis
fskeris done - 183.35 m. Sua sayrdeni wyalsagdebs gayofs or zolad. zeda da
qveda biefis siRrmuli wyalsagdebebs eqnebaT brtyeli saketebi. energiis Caqroba
moxdeba qveda biefSi, 70 metris sigrZis da 18 metris siganis Camqrobi Wis
meSveobiT.
sarini arxi gaangariSebulia 405 m3/wm. wylis xarjis gatarebaze. misi sigrZea
1972.6 metri. arxis kveTs trapeciis forma aqvs.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
129
gverdiTa wyalsaSvi mowyobili iqneba sarin arxze, uSiualod Camqrobi Wis
maxloblad. wyalsaSvi gaTvlilia 3310 m3/wm saproeqto gamtarobaze. wyalsaSvis
zRurbli iqneba 202.00 metris doneze. misi siganea 121.0 m.
hesis meqanikuri nawili mdebareobs qveda da zeda biefebSi. saWiroebis
SemTxvevaSi TiToeuli turbinis SesasvlelSi arsebuli wina dawyvilebuli
xvrelebi SeiZleba daixuros. TiToeuli turbinis kameris SesasvlelSi arsebul
orive xvrels aqvs damcavi cxaura, romelic SeiZleba gaiwmindos greiferebiT.
saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi damcavi gisosebis RarakebSi SeiZleba damontaJdes
saremonto saketebi. zedapiruli wyalsagdebis sami naxvreti SeiZleba daixuros
1 metris simaRlis brtyeli gorgolaWebiani saketebiT. maTi marTva moxdeba 1
metris simaRlis stacionaruli bagiriani amweTi. saremonto saketebs eqnebaT
Rarakebi mTavari saketis Rarakebis win.
siRrmuli wyalsagdebi iketeba gorgolaWebiani saketebiT. saketebis marTva xdeba
hidravlikuri amwis meSveobiT, romelic damontaJebulia specialur niSaSi,
hermetiuli saxuravis Rarakebis zemoT. narCenebis gamfiltravi gisosis
saremonto saketebi, greiferi, zedapiruli da siRrmuli wyalsagdebebi imarTeba
xiduri amwis meSveobiT.
remontisa da daTvalierebis miznebisaTvis, gamomavali milenis boloebi SeiZleba
daixuros mcocavi saketebis meSveobiT, xolo siRrmuli wyalsagdebis xvrelebi
SeiZleba daixuros seqciuri saketebiT. qveda biefSi mdebare farebis marTva
SeiZleba ganxorcieldes amwe meqanizmis meSveobiT.
JoneTis hidrosadguris mTliani Rirebulebis Sefaseba gakeTda Semdeg
monacemebze dayrdnobiT:
proeqtis arsebuli xelmisawvdomi dokumentacia (miRebuli energetikis
saministrosagan, msofio bankisagan da USAID–sagan);
proeqtis dokumentacia miRebuli sxvadasxva organizaciebisagan
(hidroproeqti, hidroinstituti, basiani, energoproeqti) 2007 wlis
maisSi monacemTa Segrovebis mizniT saqarTveloSi Camosuli misiis
muSaobis dros.
rbil qanebSi gruntis Txris samuSaoebis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007
wlis msoflio fasebiT, 8 aSSDdolari/m3.
kldovan qanebSi gruntis Txris samuSaoebis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra
2007 wlis msoflio fasebiT, 19 evro/m3.
miwisqveSa gaTxriTi samuSaoebis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007 wlis
msoflio fasebiT, 61 aSSDdolari/m3
TaRovani kaSxlisaTvis saWiro betonis samuSaoebis sacalo fasi
ganisazRvra arsebul gamocdilebaze dayrdnobiT da specislizirebul
kompaniebTan konsultaciebis gziT da Seadgina 186 aSSDdolari/m3.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
130
armaturis samuSaoebis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007 wlis msoflio
fasebiT da Seadgina 1.065 aSSDdolari/tona.
rkinis/mowyobilobis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007 wlis msoflio
fasebiT da Seadgina 3.325 aSSDdolari/1 tonaze.
eleqtruli mowyobilobis sacalo fasi ganisazRvra 2007 wlis msoflio
fasebiT da Seadgina 16.000 aSSDdolari/1 tonaze.
winaswari samuSaoebis Rirebuleba Sefasda rogorc mTliani samuSaoebis
Rirebulebis 10%.
gauTvaliswinebeli xarjebi Sefasda rogorc 10% mTliani samuSaoebis
Rirebulebisa (winaswari samuSaoebis Rirebulebis CaTvliT).
JoneTis hesi mdebareobs saqarTvelos da mTeli regionis yvelaze ufro
seismiur zonaSi.
samuSaoebis moculobebisa da zemoT CamoTvlili sacalo Rirebulebis
safuZvelze, winaswari SefasebebiT, JoneTis hesis Rirebuleba iqneba
daaxloebiT 173,299,161 aSS $.
namaxvanis kaskadis ZiriTadi parametrebi mocemulia cxrilSi 5.10.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
131
cxrili 5.9. JoneTis hidrosadguris saangariSo Rirebuleba
JoneTis hesi
aRweriloba erTeuli raodenoba
erTeulis
fasi (aSS
$)
Pfasi (aSS
dolari)
aRweriloba
1. Emiwis samuSaoebi m3 204,200 8 1,633,600 1.1 Egruntis Txris samuSaoebi m3 1,435,000 19 27,265,000 1.2 ETxra kldovan gruntSi m3 6200 61 378,200 1.3 UmiwisqveSa Txra m3
1.4 Frbili gruntiT Sevseba m3 230750 53 12,229,750 1.5 Fkldovani masaliT Sevseba m3 31900 32 1,020,800 1.6 Tixa 25300 33 834,900 1.7 gardamavali filtris zona m3 26100 40 1,044,000 1.8 xreSis filtri m3
1.9 gvirabis gaTxra 44,406,250 sul 1:
2. betonis samuSaoebi m3 111,300 186 20,701,800 2.1 kaSxali m3
2.2 hesis Senoba m3 2420 280 677,600 2.3 gvirabi m3 6600 240 1,584,000 2.4 miwisqveSa betoni m3
2.5 betoni t=30cm m3
2.6 rkinabetoni m3
2.7 ara-armirebuli betoni m3
2.8 winaswar gamzadebuli betoni 22,963,400 sul 2:
3. rkinis samuSaoebi 1000t 5,130 1,065 5,463,450 3.1 armireba 1000t 142 3,325 473,148 3.2 mowyobiloba 5,936,598 sul 3:
4. gzebi m1
4.1 axali mudmivi gzebi m1
4.2 adgilobrivi gzebis
rekonstruqcia m1
4.3 axali adgilobrivi gzebi m1
4.4 mudmivi gzebis rekonstruqcia m1
4.5 obieqtis droebiTi gzebis
rekonstruqcia m2
4.6 asfalti
5. duRabi m1 2100 185 388500 6. drenaJi hr
7. torkretbetoni m2
8. Emowyobiloba
8.1 hidromeqanika 1000t 2,889 13300 38,423,700 8.2 turbinebi 1000t
8.3 eleqtruli nawili 1000t 1,944 16000 31104000
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
132
JoneTis hesi
aRweriloba erTeuli raodenoba
erTeulis
fasi (aSS
$)
Pfasi (aSS
dolari)
sul 8: 69,527,700 sul ( 1-8 ): 143,222,448 9. Ria gamanawilebeli mowyobiloba jami
10. gadamcemi xazi m'
11. eqspropriacia jami
12. winaswari samuSaoebi % 14,322,245 13. gauTvaliswinebeli xarjebi % 15,754,469
14. mTliani jami 173,299,161
cxrili 5.10 namaxvanis kaskadis proeqtisMZiriTadi parametrebi
parametri Usazomi
erTeuli
JoneTi
HPP
namaxvani
HPP tviSi HPP
wyalSemkrebi auzi km2 3520 3425 3220 hidrometeorologiuri
dakvirvebebis xangrZlioba Yweli 55 55 55
wliuri Camonadeni milioni m3 4980 4910 4860 damaxasiaTebeli wylis
xarjiebi:
a) mravalwliani saSualo m3/s 158 156 154 b) maqsimumi, 0.01%
PrezerviT m3/s 3700 3700 3630
rezervuaris parametrebi:
a) wylis normaluri done m 232 310 360 b) wylis sarkis farTi km2 1.25 4.9 0.74g) wylis donis vardna m 6 12 3d) mTliani moculoba milioni m3 12.5 156 13.1 e) sasargeblo moculoba milioni m3 6.0 52.0 1.8
regulirebis tipi - DdRiuri sezonuri LdRiuri
limitirebuli
wylis dawneva
a) maqsimaluri m 32.0 83.6 36.8 b) normaluri m 27.0 75.5 33.3 g) minimaluri m 24.4 64.5 30.0 wylis normaluri xarji m3/s 416 366 336 hesis simZlavre
a) dadgmuli mgvt 2x50 = 100 2x125 = 250 2x50 = 100 saSualo wliuri
generacia gvt 276 897 395
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
133
wlis ganmavlobaSi
muSaobis xangrZlioba
saSualo (mravalwliani)
dadgmuli simZlavriT
saaTi 2760 3588 3950
* wyaro: Pre-feasibility review of Namakhvani Cascade of hydropower plants,prepared by USAID, July, 2006 (“namaxvanis kaskadis hesebis winaswari Seswavla”
USAID, ivlisi, 2006)
namaxvanis kaskadis ekologiuri da socialuri Sedegebi
angariSis es nawili ZiriTadad eyrdnoba “namaxvanis kaskadis hesebis winaswar
Seswavlas”, romelic gakeTda USAID-is mier 2006 wlis ivlisSi. USAID-is
aRniSnuli kvleva momzadda yovlismomcveli masalebis safuZvelze, romlebic
informacias Seicavdnen sxvadasxva ekologiuri da socialuri zemoqmedebis
Sesaxeb. zogierTi aseTi kvlevebis CamonaTvali mocemulia qvemoT:
hidrometeorologiuri kvleviTi samecniero instituti – gamoyenebul iqna
gumaThesisa da lajanurhesis monacemebi, maTi siaxlovisa da msgavsi bunebrivi
pirobebis gamo. amis msgavsad, wylis temperatures prognozisaTvis
gamoyenebul iqna galisa da Tbilisis wyalsacavebis monacemebi.
botanikis institutma, mcenareTa dacvis institutma da metyeveobis
institutma samSeneblo obieqtebze mcenareuli safaris damoukidebeli kvleva
Caatares.
namaxvanis kaskadis SesaZlo Sedegebis prognozirebis mizniT metyeveobis
institutma Seiswavla lajanurhesis wyalsacavis zemoqmedeba msgavsi tipis
tyeze.
mcenareTa dacvis institutma gamoikvlia mavnebelTa sistemebis bio-
ekologiuri sakiTxebi.
sainJinro institutma "saqSavzvaTevzmSenma" daiTvala Tevzis mrewvelobis
mTliani saprognozo zianis Rirebuleba.
cxovelTa samyaroze SesaZlo zemoqmedebis Sesafaseblad zoologiis
institutma Seiswavla gumaThesis teritoriis fauna.
geografiis institutis “landSaftis laboratoriam” Seiswavla mSeneblobis
SesaZlo zemoqmedeba landSaftze.
saqarTvelos sanitariisa da higienis institutma Seiswavla wyalsacavebis
SesaZlo zemoqmedeba teritoriis higienur mdgomareobaze.
parazitologiisa da tropikuli daavadebebis institutma Seiswavla
analopenogenuri tborebi 5 kilometris radiusSi.
soflis meorneobis radiologiis institutma Seiswavla rionis auzis
wyalsacavebze SesaZlo zemoqmedeba radiologiuri TvalsazrisiT.
istoriis, arqeologiisa da anTropologiis institutma moawyo
arqeologiuri eqspedicia istoriuli Zeglebis Seswavlis mizniT.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
134
saqarTvelos saxelmwifo miwis mowyobis institutma “saqsaxmiwproeqtma”
SeimuSava tyis Wrisa da gatanis proeqti.
saqarTvelos sanitariisa da higienis institutma SeimuSava wyalsacavis
teritoriis sanitaruli momzadebis proeqti.
saqarTvelos sanitariis institutma Seiswavla wyalsacavebis zemoqmedeba
adgilobrivi mosaxleobis janmrTelobaze.
Cveni angariSis momzadebis dros zemoxsenebuli kvlevebi da maTi Sedegebi
xelmisawvdomi ar iyo. Sesabamisad, maTi analizi da daskvnebis dadastureba
SeuZlebeli aRmoCnda. miuxedavad amisa, zogadi daskvnebi gakeTda sxvadasxva
rezervuarebze Catarebuli mTeli rigi kvlevebis safuZvelze.
wyalsacavebis zemoqmedeba klimatze
obieqtis SemoTavazebul teritoriaze hava Tbili da nestiania. saSualo wliuri
temperaturaa 13.8°C. zamTarSi absoluturi minimumia -16°C, xolo absoluturi
maqsimumia + 40°C, agvistoSi. naleqebis saSualo wliuri donea 1695mm. sofel
namaxvanis hidrometeorologiuri sadguris monacemebiT aq Warbobs samxreTis
qarebi. sixSiris mixedviT meore adgilzea aRmosavleTis qari. qaris saSualo
siCqarea 2.1 m/wm, maqsimaluri – 12-13 m/wm. saSualo wliuri aorTqleba 718 mm.
dakvirvebis periodSi Tovlis maqsimaluri done udrida 130 sm-s.
rodesac 1980 wels serbeTSi studenicas wyalsacavis proeqti SemuSavda
(romelsac namaxvanis wyalsacavis msgavsi fizikuri parametrebi aqvs), msoflios
TvalsaCino eqspertebma Seiswavles garemoze zemoqmedebis sakiTxebi,
gansakuTrebiT temperature da tenianoba (es kvleva nawilobriv imis gamo
Catarda, rom wyalsacavis maxloblad aris Zvirfasi freskebis mqone eklesia).
aRniSnuli ori kvlevis Sedegebi erTmaneTs daemTxva. kerZod, wyalsacavi
temperaturaze moqmedebs rezervuaridan 0.8 – 2 km-is zonaSi (rac
damokidebulia sezonsa da qarze). misi zemoqmedeba dadebiTia (stabilurobas
iwvevs) – zafxulSi temperatura mcirdeba (ramodenime gradusiT), xolo
zamTarSi matulobs. igive SeiZleba iTqvas tenianobazec. tenianoba matulobs
igive zonis farglebSi da dadebiTad moqmedebs mis mcenareulobaze.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
135
zemoxsenebuli gamokvlevebi gviCvenebs, rom wyalsacavis maxloblad
biomravalferovneba ufro didia. serbeTis mecnierebisa da xelovnebis akademiaSi
(SANU) am sakiTxebisadmi
miZRvnili
samecniero diskusia
gaimarTa, romlis
Sedegadac
biologebi igive
daskvnamde mividnen.
ufro adre es
daskvnebi
dadasturda
saqarTvelos hidro-
meteorologiis
samecniero
institutis mier.
adgilobriv klimatur pirobebze namaxvanis kaskadis wyalsacavebis SesaZlo
zemoqmedebis Sefasebis mizniT kvleviTma institutma gumaTisa da lajanuris
wyalsacavebis monacemebi gamoiyena, maTi siaxlovisa da msgavsi bunebrivi
pirobebis gamo. garda amisa, wylis temperaturis prognozisaTvis gamoyenebul
iqna galisa da Tbilisis wyalsacavebis monacemebi. Sedegebma aCvenes, rom
wyalsacavebis mSeneblobis Sedegad md. rionis auzSi klimaturi cvlilebebi
mosalodneli ar aris.
wyalsacavebis zemoqmedeba mcenareulobaze da soflis meurneobaze
soflad ekonomikis ZiriTadi dargia soflis meurneoba – mevenaxeoba da
mebaReoba. mindvris kulturebis gaSeneba Tavisi mniSvnelobiT meorexarisxovania
da mTis mdeloebi saqonlis saZovrebad gamoiyeneba.
namaxvanis wyalsacavis bolos, sofel tviSsa da orxSi mevenaxeobisa da
meRvineobis mikro-regioni Camoyalibda, sadac mzaddeba didi Rirebulebis mqone
Rvino „tviSi“. am teritoriis qvemoT mdebare venaxebze ufro dabali xarisxis
yurZeni modis. aq agreTve moyavT Semdegi saxeobis xili: vaSli, msxali, qliavi,
atami, leRvi, wabli da a.S. agreTve aris cais mcire plantaciebi.
mrewveloba warmodgenilia soflis meurneobis produqtebis gadamamuSavebeli
mcire sawarmoebiT. sofel tviSSi aris Rvinis qarxana da Spatis sabadoebi,
romelTa mopoveba jerjerobiT ar xdeba. mSeneblobis SemoTavazebuli adgili
SedarebiT mWidrodaa dasaxlebuli. muSaobis sawyis etapze proeqti Seicvala da
or-safexuriani kaskadis sistema sam-safexurianad gadakeTda. amis erTerTi
yvelaze mniSvnelovani mizezi iyo sofel tviSsa da orxSi colikauris jiSis
adre Sesrulebuli kvlevebis da gamocdilebis safuZvelze
SeiZleba vivaraudoT, rom namaxvanis kaskadis teritoriaze
mikroklimatis mniSvnelovani cvlilebebi ar moxdeba.
amJamad arsebul mdgomareobasTan SedarebiT wyalsacavebis
moculoba mcirea. zogierTi mciredi cvlileba
mosalodnelia mxolod namaxvanis wyalsacavis teritoriaze.
esenia temperaturisa da tenianobis maCveneblebis cvlileba
wylidan 700-800 metris zonaSi. ufro did manZilebze
xelsawyoebma cvlilebebi ar aCvenes. im SemTxvevaSic,
rodesac cvlilebebi mosalodnelia, isini umeteswilad
pozitiuria: haeris ukiduresi temperaturebi ufro
zomieri xdeba (zafxulis maqsimaluri temperatura ufro
dabalia, xolo zamTris minimaluri temperatura ufro
maRali). tenianoba savaraudod moimatebs, rac dadebiTad
imoqmedebs teritoriis florasa da biomravalferovnebaze.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
136
yurZnis venaxebis datborvis Tavidan acileba, radgan aq niadagisa da klimatis
unikaluri pirobebi maRali xarisxis Rvinis - „tviSis“ warmoebis saSualebas
iZleva. mevenaxeobisa da mebaReobis samecniero kvleviTma institutma daamtkica,
rom sxva zonebsa da simaRleebze venaxebis gadatana Rvinis xarisxs Secvlis. amis
gamo sistemis proeqti seixvala da rezervuarebi venaxebze zemoqmedebas aRar
moaxdenen.
mSeneblobisaTvis gamoyofili miwis mTliani farTia 1743.13 heqtari.
rezervuarebisa da mdinaris napirebis farTobia 924.71 heqtari, maT Soris
sasoflo-sameurneo miwebis farTia 296.94 heqtari, romlidanac 27.06 heqtari saTibebs ukaviaT, 32.90 heqtari - baRebs, 29.93 heqtari –venaxebs, 51.60 heqtari - kerZo fermebs da 2.95 heqtari – Cais plantaciebs.
proeqtSi gaTvaliswinebuli unda iyos kompensaciebi sasoflo-sameurneo miwis
datborvis Sedegad fermerTa mier miRebuli zaralis asanazRaureblad. amisaTvis
ori SesaZlo scenari arsebobs: fuladi kompensacia da sxva adgilas sasoflo-
sameurneo miwis gamoyofa. gansakuTrebuli yuradReba unda mieqces miwis
kategorias, farTs, manZils fermeris saxlidan da a.S. arsebuli dokumentaciis
mixedviT, sasoflo-sameurneo miwebis dakargvis kompensaciis Tanxebi Setanilia
mSemneblobis xarjTaRricxvaSi.
kaskadis mSeneblobis mizniT miwebis gasxviseba mniSvnelovnad ar imoqmedebs
regionSi sasoflo-sameurneo produqciis warmoebis SesaZleblobaze. wyaltubos
raionSi gasasxvisebeli (mSeneblobisaTvis gamosayenebeli) miwis farTi raionis
mTeli farTis 1.81% –s Seadgens, cageris raionSi - 0.51%-s, xolo tyibulis
raionSi mxolod 0.08%-s. sasoflo-sameurneo miwis dakargvis Sedegad fermerTa
mier miRebuli zaralis kompensaciis Tanxa ganisazRvra ministrTa sabWos
dadgenilebaSi, 1976 wels.
botanikis institutma, mcenareTa dacvis institutma da metyeveobis institutma
samSeneblo obieqtebze mcenareuli safaris damoukidebeli kvleva Caatares. am
institutebis mier gakeTebuli daskvnebis mixedviT hidrosadgurebis mSenebloba
da Semdgomi eqspluatacia raime seriozul uaryofiT zemoqmedebas ar moaxdens
mcenareul safarze. kvlevam „kavkasia biomravalferovnebis cxeli wertili“
(Caucasus Biodiversity Hotspot) aCvena, kaskadis zemoqmedebis zonaSi safrTxis
winaSe myofi mcenareebis saxeobebi ar aris.
namaxvanis kaskadis SesaZlo Sedegebis prognozirebis mizniT metyeveobis
institutma Seiswavla lajanurhesis wyalsacavis zemoqmedeba msgavsi tipis
tyeze. am kvlevaze dayrdnobiT institutma gaakeTa daskvna, rom wylis
zedapiruli da miwisqveSa dinebebis fizikuri parametrebi mniSvnelovnad ar
Seicvleba da amrigad wyalsacavebi uaryofiT zemoqmedebas ar moaxdenen tyis
ekosistemebze.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
137
mcenareTa dacvis institutma gamoikvlia mavnebelTa sistemebis bio-ekologiuri
sakiTxebi. kvlevam aCvena, rom garemos saSualo temperatura da tenianoba
mniSvnelovan rols asruleben. vinaidan haeris temperatura da tenianoba ar
Seicvleba, wyalsacavebi uaryofiT zemoqmedebas ar moaxdenen mavnebelTa
biologiur maxasiaTeblebze, zrdaze da ganviTarebaze.
wyalsacavebis zemoqmedeba faunaze
md. rioni saqarTvelos yvelaze didi mdinarea. kaskadis sistemis zeda biefSi
(tviSis hidrosadguri) mdinaris wliuri Camonadenia 154 m3/wm. aseTi didi
mdinare cxovelebis moZraobis bunebriv dabrkolebas qmnis, rac imas niSnavs, rom
wyalsacavebis Sevseba cxovelTa moZraobas ukve veRar daabrkolebs. datboril
teritoriaze ar binadroben daculi an gadaSenebis safrTxis winaSe myofi
saxeobebi.
md. rionis qveda nawili (quTaisisa da kaskadis sistemis qvemoT) kavkasiis mcire
qedis dasavleTi koridorSi gadis (monacemi aRebulia kvlevidan „kavkasia
biomravalferovnebis cxeli wertili“). aq gvxvdebian Tevzis daculi saxeobebi :
Acipenser sturio (baltiis TarTi), Acipenser gueldenstaedtii (rusuli TarTi),Acipenser persicus (sparsuli TarTi), Acipenser nudiventris (TarTi), Acipenser stellatus (varskvlavuri TarTi), Huso huso (svia). es migraculi saxeobis Tevzebia,
romlebic md. rionis qveda nawilidan Sav zRvamde gadaadgildebian. mdinaris
gaswvriv moZraobisas maT xvdebaT dabrkolebebi (varcixis, rionis da gumaTis
hidrosadgurebi). amis gamo namaxvanis kaskadis hesebi ukve veRar moaxdenen
uaryofiT zemoqmedebas Tevzebis migraciaze. mSeneblobis teritoria Tevzis
mrewvelobisaTvis mniSvnelovani ar aris.
wyalsacavebis Seqmnis Semdeg Seicvleba hidrobiologiuri reJimi da sakvebis
moxmareba, rac niSnavs, rom Tevzis saxeobebis Seicvleba. sainJinro institutma
„saqSavzRvaTevzmSenma” daiTvala, rom Tevzis mrewvelobis dargis mTliani
zarali 3.85 tona iqneba. amrigad, proeqti iTvaliswinebs RonisZiebebis
gatarebas, romlebmac xeli unda Seuwyon Tevzis (kerZod TeTri TarTis)
moSenebas.
cxovelTa samyaroze SesaZlo zemoqmedebis Sesafaseblad zoologiis institutma
Seiswavla gumaThesis teritoriis fauna. misi daskvnebi Semdegia:
miwiszeda faunas raodenobriv an xarisxobriv oarapetrebSi raime
mniSvnelovani cvlilebebi mosalodneli ar aris. adgili aqvs mxolod
ramodenime saxeobis ZuZumwovarTa migracias;
wyalsacavebiT gamowveuli zoologiuri efeqti Zalian dabali iqneba.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
138
md. rionze energosistemis gafarToebis Sedegad iseTi pirobebi iqmneba, romlis
drosac aucilebelia damatebiTi nagebobebis gaTvaliswineba Tevzebis migraciis
uzrunvelsayofad. aseTi nagebobebi unda Seiqmnas saSiSroebis winaSe, ZiriTadad
kritikuli saSiSroebis winaSe mdgari saxeobebisaTvis: Acipenser sturio (baltiis
TarTi) da gadaSenebis safrTxis qveS myofi Acipenser gueldenstaedtii (rusuli
TarTi), Acipenser persicus (sparsuli TarTi), Acipenser nudiventris (TarTi), Acipenser stellatus (varskvlavuri TarTi), Huso huso (svia).
mSeneblobis da wyalsacavebis zemoqmedeba landSaftze da dasvenebisa
da turizmis ganviTarebaze
wyalsacavebis mSeneblobis dros xSirad xorcieldeba Semdegi zomebi:
- wyalSemkrebi auzis dacva: eroziis kontrolisa da profilaqtikis zomebi,
tyeebis, saZovrebis da mdeloebis menejmenti da dacva;
- sanitaruli dacva: sanitaruli dacvis zonebis gansazRvra wyalsacavSi
sakvebi nivTierebebis Cadinebis Semcirebis mizniT, masSi evtrofiuli
procesebis Tavidan acilebis mizniT; sakanalizacio sistemebis da gamwmendi
nagebobebis gaumjobeseba (an axlis Seqmna) dasaxlebul adgilebSi;
- turizmisa da dasvenebis seqtorebis ganviTareba: teritoriis keTilmowyoba
turizmis ganviTarebisa da landSaftis faseulobis amaRlebisaTvis, mwvane
zonebis da parkebis Seqmna, turistebisaTvis saTanado infrastruqturis
Seqmna, napirebis mowyoba ise, rom wyalsacavTan misvla gaadvildes,
meTevzeebisaTvis, turistebisTvis da wylis sportisaTvis saWiro
nagebobebis Seqmna.
lamazi landSafti da turistuli marSrutebis arseboba, agreTve is garemoeba,
rom namaxvanis kaskadis sistema SedarebiT mWidrod dasaxlebul teritoriaze
mdebareobs, didi qalaqis (quTaisis) maxloblad, karg pirobebs seqmnis
turizmisa da dasvenebis zonis Sesaqmbelad. wyalsacavebis maxloblad SeiZleba
turizmisa da dasvenebis mTeli kompleqsis Seqmna.
proeqtis SemuSavebis procesSi aucilebelia SemuSavdes teritoriis ganviTarebis
kompleqsuri gegma, romelic wyalsacavebis garSemo arsebuli farTobis
ganviTarebis, gamoyenebisa da dacvis sakiTxebs Seexeba. am dokumentSi
gansazRvruli iqneba zonis sanitaruli dacvis RonisZiebebi da pirobebi,
romelTa Sesrulebac savaldebulo iqneba, wyalsacavis zonaSi mSeneblobis
nebarTvis misaRebad (Tuki es saerTod nebadarTuli iqneba). am pirobebSi
gawerili iqneba gzebis marSrutebi, SemTxveviTi dabinZurebis Tavidan acilebis
RonisZiebebi da a.S. es mniSvnelovani sakiTxia, rac saxelmwifos mxridan mTeli
rigi RonisZiebebis ganxorcielebas gulisxmobs.
geografiis institutis landSaftis laboratoriam Seiswavla mSeneblobis
SesaZlo zemoqmedeba landSaftze. am kvlevam aCvena, bunebrivi pirobebi
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
139
SemoTavazebuli mSeneblobisaTvis sasikeToa. kaskadis gonivruli mSeneblobisa da
eqspluataciis SemTxvevaSi landSafti ar dazaraldeba.
wyalsacavebis zemoqmedeba teritoriis higienur mdgomareobaze
1983-1991 saqarTvelos sanitariisa da higienis institutma Seiswavla
wyalsacavebis SesaZlo zemoqmedeba teritoriis higienur mdgomareobaze
(alpanidan JoneTamde). kvlevan aCvena, rom gasuli wlebis manZilze sanitarul-
higienuri mdgomareoba ar gauaresda da zog SemTxvevaSi gaumjobesda kidec.
wyalsacavebis zemoqmedeba wylis xarisxze
namaxvanis wyalsacavebi wylis xarisxs ar gaauareseben. tviSisa da JoneTis
hidrosadgurebis wyalsacavebSi Tbur stratifikacias adgili ar eqneba (frudis
parametric, romelsac agreTve “Tburi stratifikaciis “ uwodeben (SI) udris
SI=Fr>1). wylis mTliani moculobis Secvlis periodi daaxloebiT erT dRes
udris, rac imas mowmobs, rom wyalsacavebSi igive parametrebi iqneba, rac
mdinareSi. namaxvanis hesis wyalsacavSi stratifikacia moxdeba, magram Zalian
Zlieri ar iqneba (0.1<Fr<1 - dabali stratifikacia) da stratifikaciis aseTi
xarisxi mniSvnelovnad ver imoqmedebs wylis xarisxis parametrebze. wylis
mTliani moculobis Secvlis periodia 12 dRe, rac niSnavs, rom wylis xarisxi
ar gauaresdeba.
cxrili 5.11. stratifikaciis indikatori da eutrofikaciis SesaZlebloba
namaxvanis kaskadis wyalsacavebSi
rezervuari stratifikaciis
indikatori SIstratifikaciis
done
wylis Secvlis
periodi
eutrofikacii
SesaZlebloba
JoneTi 2.3 stratifikacia ar
aris
22 saaTi ara
namaxvani 0.2 mcire
stratifikacia.11.6 dRe mcire
tviSi 2.5 stratifikacia ar
aris
22 saaTi ara
mouxedavad amisa, wylis xarisxi SeiZleba gaumjobesdes. qvemoT CamoTvlilia
rekomendirebuli RonisZiebebi:
srulfasovani sakanalizacio da wylis gamwmendi sistemebis mowyoba
regionis msxvil dasaxlebul adgilebSi;
samrewvelo sawarmoebs unda hqondeT adgilobrivi wylis gamwmendi
sistemebi dabinZurebuli gamoyenebuli wylis gasawmendad;
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
140
wyalsacavebis mimdebare teritoriaze sasuqebis gamoyeneba unda
SeizRudos;
mesaqonleobis msxvili fermebi ise unda iyos mowyobili, rom nakeli da
wunwuxi teritorias ar abinZurebdes.
TiToeuli wyalsacavis proeqtis SemuSavebis dros unda Catardes kvleva
wyalsacavis mTeli zonis reabilitaciisaTvis. am kvlevam unda gasces pasuxi
iseT kiTxvebze, Tu rogor unda moxdes xeebis Wra da mcenareulobis gatana,
rogor und aCatardes TiToeuli dasaSleli/gasatani nagebobis sanitaruli
gamuSaveba da neSompalis gatana, romelsac SeuZlia eutrofikaciis procesi
gamoiwvios da a.S. am RonisZiebebis gatarebis grafiki Zalian guldasmiT unda
SemuSavdes da Sesruldes. teritoriis gawmendisTanave wyalsacavis Sevseba
dauyovnebliv unda daiwyos, rom Tavidan aviciloT mcemnareulobis swrafi zrda
da amgvarad rezervuaris Sevsebis Semdeg eutrofikaciisaTvis xelsayreli
pirobebis Seqmna. TavisTavad cxadia, rom momaval wyalsacavSi wylis
autrofikaciis xarisxi zemoT CamoTvlil zomebze iqneba damokidebuli.
saqarTvelos saxelmwifo miwis mowyobis institutma “saqsaxmiwproeqtma”
SeimuSava tyis Wrisa da gatanis proeqti (“namaxvanis kaskadis hesebis proeqtis
mizanSewonilobis winaswar angariSSi” mocemuli informaciis Tanaxmad).
dokumentaciis mixedviT, wyalsacavis teritoriaze xeebisa da buCqebis Wra
ganxorcieldeba 4 wlis ganmavlobaSi, wyalsacavis srul Sevsebamde. am raionSi
samSeneblo xe-tyis resursebi mwiria, radganac tyeebi intensiurad iCexeboda.
amis gamo, ioli iqneba moWrili xeebis gamoyeneba wyalsacavis mimdebare
terotoriaze.
wyalsacavebis zemoqmedeba malariasTan dakavSirebul situaciaze
parazitologiisa da tropikuli daavadebebis institutma Seiswavla
analopenogenuri tborebi 5 kilometris radiusSi. proeqtis teritoriaze
adgili aqvs xangrZliv, rTuli epidemiologiur faqtorebs. sezoni, romelic
malarias gavrcelebas uwyobs xels, sakmaod xangrZlivia. amave dros aRsaniSnavia,
rom 1970 wlidan saqarTveloSi malarias SemTxvevebi registrirebuli ar
yofila.
am epidemiologiur zonaSi malarias xelSemwyobi faqtorebis analizma aCvena,
rom wyalsacavebis mSeneblobis Sedegad malariis albaTobis zrdis
ugulebelyofa ar SeiZleba. amitom aucilebelia profilaqtikuri zomebis
gatareba, rogoricaa:
ufro intensiuri epidemiologiuri dakvirveba janmrTelobis
mdgomareobaze;
muSebis, damqiraveblebis da maTi ojaxebis samedicino Semowmeba.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
141
wyalsacavebis zemoqmedeba seismiur mdgomareobaze
regionis teqtonikuri maxasiaTeblebis da namaxvanis kaskadie teritoriis
maxasiaTeblebis analizis safuZvelze SeiZleba davaskvnaT, rom kaskadis sistemam
seismuroba ar unda gazardos. hesebis kaskadis sistema zemoqmedebas ar moaxdens
am teritoriis seismiurobis amJamindel maxasiaTeblebze.
wyalsacavebis zemoqmedeba radiologiur situaciaze
soflis meorneobis radiologiis institutma Seiswavla rionis auzis
wyalsacavebze SesaZlo zemoqmedeba radiologiuri TvalsazrisiT. md. rionis
auzSi radiaciis donea 7-15 mikrorentgeni/sT rac ar aRemateba saqarTveloSi
arsebul saSualo radiaciul dones. yvela Seswavlili sinjis gama speqtris
analizisas aRmoCenili iyo mxolod ceziumis radiaqtiuli nuklidi.
sxva radiaqtiuli nuklidebis Semcveloba speqtrometris mgrZnobiarobaze ufro
dabali aRmoCnda da ar aRemateboda bunebriv dones. namaxvanis kaskadis
mSenebloba ar daabinZurebs mdinare rionis wyals.
mosaxleobis gadasaxleba da masTan dakavSirebuli zaralis
anazRaureba proeqtis farglebSi
namaxvanis kaskadis mSenebloba Seexeba 202 safermero nakveTs da 436 adamians
wyaltubosa da cageris raionebSi (wyaltubos raoinis saregistracio biuros
monacemebis mixedviT). tviSi hesis wyalsacavis zonaSi mxolod 45 kerZo
safermero nakveTi mdebareobs; namaxvanis hesis wyalsacavis zonaSi (wyaltubis
raioni) - 109 kerZo safermero nakveTia, da 309 adamiani cxovrobs. JoneTis
hesis wyalsacavis zonaSi 30 kerZo safermero nakveTia da 75 adamiani cxovrobs.
mSeneblobis zonaSi moxvedrili dasaxlebuli punqtebi ganviTarebuli ar aris.
mosaxleoba wyals patarpatara wyaroebidan da Webidan iRebs. kanalizaciis
sistema ar arsebobs. mosaxleoba maragdeba eleqtroenergiiT.
tipiuri sacxovrebeli saxlebi orsarTuliania. rogorc wesi, pirveli sarTuli
qviTaa naSenebi, xolo meore sarTuli xisaa da aivnebiani. ezoSi mowyobilia
samzareulo (msubuqi gadaxurviT), cxovelebis saTavsoebi, saqaTme, beReli, Tone
da Rvinis marani.
fermerTa nakveTebi SemoRobilia. garda kerZo saxlebisa, wyalsacavis zonaSi
xvdeba sazogadoebrivi da saxelmwifo daniSnulebis Senobebi. proeqtis mixedviT
99 kerZo safermero nakveTi da 279 adamiani, romelic amJamad momavali
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
142
wyalsacavis zonaSi cxovroben, sofel derCis teritoriaze gamoyofil miwebze
unda gadasaxldnen: 10 kerZo safermero nakveTi, 32 adamiani sofel molekuraSi; 10 kerZo safermero nakveTi 20 adamiani sofel derCSi; 38 kerZo safermero nakveTi 110 adamiani sofel qveda onCeiSi; 8 kerZo safermero nakveTi 20 adamiani sofel zeda onCeiSi; 33 kerZo safermero nakveTi 97 adamiani sofel meqvenaSi.
mosaxleoba miiRebs saxlebs, sayofacxovrebo saTavsoebs da daaxloebiT 0.25
heqtaris safermero miwis farTobs. mosaxleobis gadasaxlebasTan dakavSirebuli
sakompensacio xarjebi gaTvaliswinebulia proeqtis biujetSi.
evropis sxva qveynebis (rogoricaa magaliTad espaneTi) gamocdileba gviCvenebs,
rom mosaxleobis gadasaxlebis procesis saTanadod dagegmva saSualebas iZleva
gadavWraT naklebad ganviTarebuli dasaxlebuli teritoriis ganviTarebis
sakvanZo sakiTxebi. es gulisxmobs mosaxleobis organizebul swavlebas, axal
teritoriaze dasaxlebas da aranebayoflobiT gadaadgilebuli pirebisaTvis
samuSao adgilebis Seqmnas. aRniSnuli wyalsacavebi saqarTveloSi aucileblad
unda iyos gamoyenebuli mosaxleobis socialuri mdgomareobis gasaumjobeseblad
da, amrigad, saWiroa am sakiTxis detaluri analizi da dagegmva sociologebis
monawileobiT. rogorc wesi, dagegmili gadasaxleba wyalsacavis proeqtis
Semadgeneli nawilia. wina periodSi miRebuli uaryofiTi gamocdilebis gamo
mosaxleoba SeiZleba gadasaxlebas da axal sistemas ewinaaRmdegebodes. amis gamo,
proeqtis is nawili, romelic mosaxleobis gadasaxlebas exeba, Zalian
guldasmiT unda SemuSavdes kompetenturi uwyebis mier, qvemoT moyvanili
sociologiuri faqtebis gaTvaliswinebiT:
gadasaxlebas daqvemdebarebuli pirebi proeqtis avtorebTan
iTanamSromleben, Tu ecodinebaT, rom maTi ekonomiuri da socialuri
pirobebi gaumjobesdeba;
gadasaxlebas daqvemdebarebulma pirebma unda icodnen Tavisi interesebis
Sesaxeb proeqtTan dakavSirebiT – maT ar unda SeeqmnaT STabeWdileba,
rom maTi interesebi sxva raime interesebs Seewira.
gadasaxlebis dagegmvis procesSi gaTvaliswinebuli unda iyos masTan
dakavSirebuli yvela faqtori: mosaxleobis saqmianoba, asaki, sqesi,
ojaxuri kavSirebi, mezobluri urTierTobebi, ojaxebis ekonomikuri
mdgomareoba, yofili socialuri standartebi da a.S.
gadasaxlebas daqvemdebarebul pirebs, kompensaciis saxiT, dauyovnebliv
unda SesTavazon mimzidveli ekonomikuri programebi.
gadasaxlebis dro guldasmiT unda SeirCes.Tu mosaxleoba ukve arsebul dasaxlebul punqtSi gadagvyavs, saTanado
yuradReba unda daeTmos maTi dasaxlebis adgilis ganviTarebas. axali
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
143
samuSao adgilebi gonivrulad unda ganawildes or socialur jgufs
Soris: axalmosulebsa da mkvidr mosaxleobas Soris.
gzebis marSrutis Secvla
gzebs kritikuli mniSvnelobis roli akisriaT namaxvanis eleqtrosadguris
mSeneblobaSi. es mSeneblobis teritoriis dakavSirebis erTaderTi saSualebaa
quTaissa da wyaltubosTan, sadac samSeneblo masalebia. garda amisa, gzebi
hidrosadgurebs akavSireben mSeneblobis obieqtis teritoriaze myof
sawarmoebTan da dasaxlebul punqtebTan. trasa “quTaisi-alpana-mamisonis
uReltexili” ZiriTadi arteriaa, romelic quTaiss da wyaltubos akavSirebs
md. rionis napirebze da mTian raionebSi arsebul dasaxlebul punqtebTan.
gzebi sam jgufad iyofa:
1. gzebi, romelTa marSruti unda Seicvalos, rom wyalsacavis zonas gverdi
auaron;2. mudmivi gzebi;3. droebiTi gzebi.
pirvel jgufs ekuTvnis respublikuri da regionaluri mniSvnelobis gzebi. am
gzebis zogierTi monakveTi daitboreba wyalsacavebis mSeneblobis Semdeg.
imisaTvis rom es gzebi moqmedi iyos saWiroa maTi gadatana sxva adgilas.
pirveli kategoriis gzebis mTliani sigrZe udris 60.3 km-s.
meore jgufs ekuTvnis mudmivi gzebi, romlebic gamoyenebuli iqneba hesebis
nagebobebis mSeneblobis dros. mSeneblobis dasrulebis Semdeg es gzebi
gamoyenebuli iqneba hesebis nagebobebis eqspluataciisaTvis. am jgufis gzebis
mTliani sigrZe udris 42.2 km-s.
mesame jguFSi Sedis droebiTi gzebi, romlebic gamoyenebuli iqneba hesebis
damxmare nagebobebis mSeneblobisaTvis (droebiTi nagebobebi, gvirabis
mSenebloba da a.S.). droebiTi gzebis mTliani sigrZe udris 40.4 km-s.
wyalsacavi datboravs:
ZiriTad gzas romelic gadis mdinaris marjvena napirze;
borani da masTan misasvleli gza;
gzebi, romlebic mTavar gzasTan akavSireben soflebs derCis, CorTisas da
a.S.;
xidebi manqanebisa da fexiT mosiaruleebisaTvis da Sesabamisi gzebi.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
144
zemoT CamoTvlili gzebis marSrutis Sesacvlelad proeqtSi
gaTvaliswinebulia axali gzebis mSenebloba. gzebis, xidebis da saavtomobilo
gvirabebis mSeneblobisaTvis saWiroa 624.5 aTasi m3 betoni, maSin rodesac
kaskadis mTel sistemas sWirdeba 1473 aTasi m3.
istoriuli, kulturuli da bunebrivi Zeglebi
md. rionis Sua monakveTi gadis saqarTvelos centralur nawilze, romelic
Zalian sainteresoa istoriuli TvalsazrisiT. istoriis, arqeologiisa da
anTropologiis institutma moawyo arqeologiuri eqspedicia aRniSnul
teritoriaze istoriuli Zeglebis Seswavlis mizniT. eqspediciam gansazRvra
27 Zegli, romelTa Seswavlac aucilebelia. aseTi samuSaoebis ganxorcielebis
xarjebi Sedis mSeneblobis mTlian xarjTaRricxvaSi.
eleqtruli da sakomunikacio nagebobebis xelaxali daproeqteba
maRali Zabvis gadamcemi xazi “gumaThesi – lajanurhesi” aSenebulia namaxvanis
hidrosadgurebis mSeneblobis teritoriaze da mierTebulia sam qvesadgurTan,
romlebic eleqtroenergiiT amarageben mimdebare teritorias. maRali Zabvis
zemoxsenebuli eleqtrogadamcemi xazebi aSenda 1950 wels, ZiriTadad xis
sayrdenebis gamoyenebiT, romlebic mTlianad unda Seicvalos. sakomunikacio
xazebi da anZebi Zalian moZvelebulia da maTi Secvla aucilebelia. am
SecvlisaTvis saWiro xarjebi Setanilia proeqtis biujetSi.
sanitaruli RonisZiebebi
saqarTvelos sanitariisa da higienis institutma SeimuSava wyalsacavis
teritoriis sanitaruli momzadebis proeqti.
mosamzadebel sanitarul RonisZiebebSi Sedis:
teritoriis gawmenda samSeneblo narCenebisagan saxlebis dangrevis
Semdeg;
narCenebis gatana sanagve ormoebidan;
sanagve ormoebis damuSaveba kiris qloridis xsnariT da xelaxla
Sevseba miwiT;
saflavebis gadatana da damuSaveba kiris qloridis xsnariT;
yofili saflavebis adgilis amovseba miwiT.
wyalsacavebis zemoqmedeba adgilobrivi mosaxleobis janmrTelobaze
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
145
saqarTvelos sanitariis institutma Seiswavla wyalsacavebis zemoqmedeba
adgilobrivi mosaxleobis janmrTelobaze. kvleva Sesrulda msgavsi pirobebis
mqone gumaThesis wyalsacavisaTvis gakeTebuli kvlevis analogiaze dayrdnobiT.
Catarda msgavs pirobebSi mcxovreb adamianTa jgufis samedicino Semowmeba.
mcxovrebTa janmrTelobis mdgomareobis Seswavla Catarda 10 sofelSi
(ofurCxeTSi, gumaTSi, namaxvanSi, JoneTSi, zaraTSi, sormonSi, mamawmindaSi,
jimaStaroSi), romlis drosac gamoyenebuli iyo 1973 - 1980 da 1987 – 1989
wlebis arqivis masalebi. garda amisa, arsebobs monacemebi sikvdilianobis da
Sobadobis Sesaxeb. agreTve Seswavlili iyo yvela registrirebuli pacientis
janmrTelobis istoriebi da maT mier mirebuli samedicino momsaxurebis
istoriebi.
analizma aCvena, rom janmrTelobasTa dakavSirebuli yvelaze xSiri
problemebia kardio-vaskularuli sistemis, saWmlis momnelebeli sistemis da
respiratoruli sistemis problemebi. janmrTelobis mdgomareobasa da
klimatur pirobebSi adgili ar hqonia raime gansakuTrebul cvlilebebs,
romlebic gumaThesis wyalsacaviT iqneboda gamowveuli. kvlevis Sedegebis
mixedviT mosaxleobis janmrTelobis mdgomareoba Sefasebulia rogorc
saSualo.
foTis maxloblad zRvis napirebis dacvis RonisZiebebi
kolxeTis dablobi Camoyalobda holocenis periodSi, dasav;leT saqarTvfelos
mdinareebis, ZiriTadad md. rionis Camonatani danaleqebisagan. md. rionis
SesarTavi qalaq foTis maxloblad mdebareobs. rioni Sav zRvaSi or nakadad
Caedineba da kunZuls qmnis, romelsac “bolSois” eZaxian da romelzec qalaq
foTis erTi nawilia gaSenebuli.
mas Semdeg, rac mdinare rionis nakadi gadagdebuli iyo mdinare nabadaSi,
mdinaris Zvel SesarTavTan danaleqebis Camotana Sewyda da danaleqebis didi
deficiti Seiqmna. amis Sedegad, Zveli deltis adgilas zRvis sanapiros
Zlieri erozia daiwyo.
namaxvanis kaskadis mSenebloba Seamcirebs danaleqebis raodenobas 1 milion m3
–mde. amave dros aRsaniSnavia, rom mdinaris hidrografiuli parametrebi
gaumjobesdeba, rac gazrdis mdinaris mier danaleqebis Camotanis
SesaZleblobas mdinaris SesarTavTan, qalaqis midamoebSi. zemoaRniSnulis
safuZvelze SeiZleba viwinaswarmetyveloT, rom namaxvanis kaskadi
yovelwliurad Seqmnis 300 - 400 aTasi m3-mde danaleqis deficits, Tu md.
rionis wylis nakadi SesarTavTan, qalaqis midamoebSi, iqneba 320 m3/wm.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
146
zemoaRniSnuli garemoebebis gaTvaliswinebiT, proeqti iTvaliswinebs foTis
maxloblad Savi zRvis sanapiros dacvis RonisZiebebs. ganxiluli iyo
ramodenime SesaZlebloba. yvelaze efeqturi zomaa napiris xazis Seweva zRvaSi
320 metriT da napiris donis amaRleba 1.5 metriT, rac saprognozo
mravalwlian zRvis dones aRemateba. teqnikuri specifikaciebis mixedviT,
miwayrilis mosawyobad saWiro iqneba 3.98 mln.m3 da mSeneblobis periodi
iqneba 3 weli. SemdgomSi eroziis adgilebis aRsadgenad yovelwliurad saWiro
iqneba 200 000 m3.
5.2.4. dagegmili hesebis teqnikuri da ekonomikuri parametrebis sejameba
dagegmili didi hesebis parametrebis Sefasebis safuZvelze, romelic zemoT
moyvanil TavebSi iyo aRwerili, 5.12 cxrilSi naCvenebia ZiriTadi monacemebi
teqnikuri gadawyvetis, potenciuri generaciis da saangariSo sainvesticio
xarjebis Sesaxeb.
cxrili 5.12. dagegmili didi hesebis teqnikuri da ekonomikuri parametrebis
Sejameba
xudonhesi namaxvanis kaskadi faravanhesi
tviSihesi namaxvanhesi JoneThesi
sadguris
simZlavre (mgvt) 638 100 250 100 123
saSualo
generacia
(gvt.sT)
1328 395 897 276 440
kapitaluri
xarjebi (milioni
aSS $)604 146 322 173 113
kapitaluri
xarjebi (milioni
aSS $/kvt)947 1460 1288 1730 919
mSeneblobis
periodi (wlebi)5 4 5 4 3
eqspluataciaSi
gaSvebis SesaZlo
weli (weli)
2013 2013 2013 2013 2013
5.12 cxrilSi mocemuli parametrebis
garda, dagegmili hesebis Tviuri
generacia gaangariSebuli iyo
energetikis saministros mier
mowodebuli Tviuri maCveneblebis
SesaZlo generaciis Sesaxeb gakeTebuli
daSvebebi, agreTve gvalviani hidrologiuri
pirobebis warmoqmnis albaToba igivea, rac
arsebul hesebze e.i. navaraudevia, rom
gvalvian periodSi generaciis done iqneba
saSualo hidrologiur pirobebSi
arsebuli generaciis 76%, xolo aseTi
pirobebis Seqmnis albaTobaa 10%.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
147
safuZvelze da moyvanilia cxrilSi 5.13. navaraudevi iyo, rom es ricxvebi
asaxaven aRniSnuli hesebis generacias saSualo hidrologiur pirobebSi.
cxrili 5.13. Mdagegmili hesebis Tviuri generacia
Tviuri Mgeneracia (gvt.sT)
Kxudonhesi
HPP
faravanhesi
HPP
tviSihesi
HPP
namaxvanhesi
HPP
JoneThesi
HPP
1 96 26 13 30 92 66 26 40 93 29 3 74 25 40 93 29 4 103 32 52 118 36 5 171 60 39 89 28 6 180 59 39 89 28 7 180 59 39 89 28 8 112 51 33 74 23 9 103 26 29 64 20 10 59 27 25 56 17 11 85 24 24 55 17 12 99 25 22 49 15
Total 1328 440 395 897 276
am sami hesis Tviuri generaciis monacemebze dayrdnobiT gakeTda generaciis
sezonurobis analizi, romelmac aCvena, rom namaxvanis kaskadis (tviSis,
namaxvanis da JoneTis hesebi) wliuri generaciis Tviuri ganawileba
gansxvavebulia xudonhesisa da engurhesis grafikisagan (grafiki 5-22). imis
gaTvaliswinebiT, rom wylis bunebrivi Sedineba md. rionze gansxvavebulia
vidre md. engurze, raime damatebiTi analizis gakeTeba bunebrivi Sedinebis
Sesaxeb SeuZlebelia. miuxedavad amisa aRsaniSnavia, rom namaxvanis kaskadis
wliuri generaciis Tviuri ganawileba da garkveulwilad ufro maRali
generacia TebervalSi, martSi da aprilSi (xudonhesisagan gansxvavebiT) am
kaskadis sargeblianobas zrdis da upiratesobas aZlevs mas xudonhesTan
SedarebiT.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
148
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Months
Mon
thly
gen
erat
ion
(GW
h)
Khudoni Cascada Namakhvani
grafiki 5-22. dagegmili hesebis sezonuroba
5.3. ganaxlebadi energiis potenciali saqarTveloSi
saqarTveloSi ganaxlebadi energiis wyaroebiT eleqtroenergiis generacia
warmoebs hidrosadgurebisa da qaris energiis gamoyenebiT. geoTemuli energia
da biomasa gamoiyeneba siTbos generaciisaTvis, xolo mzis energia saerTod ar
gamoiyeneba.
imis gaTvaliswinebiT, Tu raoden mniSvnelovania momavalSi eleqtrogeneraciaSi
ganaxlebadi energiis wyaroebis ufro farTo ganviTareba, moxda potenciuri
proeqtebis winaswari SerCeva, rom maTgan yvelaze perspeqtiuli proeqtebi
ganviTarebis yvelaze iafi gzebis dagegmvis dros yofiliyo gamoyenebuli.
ganaxlebadi energiis aTvisebis potencialis ZiriTadi parametrebi mocemulia
cxrilSi 5.14.
saqarTveloSi eleqtroenergiis generaciisaTvis amJamad SesaZlebelia yvela
saxis ganaxlebadi energiis wyaroebis gamoyeneba, garda mzis energiisa.
jerjerobiT mzis elementebi sakmarisad rentabeluri ar aris da metismetad
Zviria. maTi gamoyeneba SesaZlebelia ekonomikurad gamarTlebuli iyos Znelad
misadgom adgilebSi, sadac isini erTian qselSi ar iqnebian CarTulni, radgan
aseTi danadgarebis teqmomsaxureba rTuli ar aris, isini modiuluri
principiT iwyoba da maTi maTi damontaJeba iolia.
Georgia: Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
149
geoTermuli wyaroebis potenciali saqarTveloSi sakmaod maRalia.
WaburRilebis umetesobas iseTi maxasiaTeblebi aqvs (dabali temperaturis
wyaroebi) rom maTi gamoyeneba ZiriTadad dagegmilia siTbos miwodebis
mravalsafexurian sistemebSi. kogeneraciis geoTermuli eleqtrosadgurebis
mSenebloba, binaruli turbinebiT, dasavleT saqarTveloSi arsebuli saSualo
temperaturis geoTermuli wyaroebis gamoyenebiT, SeiZleba ganxilul iqnas
rogorc erTerTi SesaZlebloba. miuxedavad amisa, amJamindeli SefasebiT
eleqtroenergiis generaciis potenciali saerTo jamSi ar aRemateba 15
megavats.
biomasis, rogorc ganaxlebadi energiis wyaros gamoyeneba saqarTveloSi
sakmarisad ganviTarebuli ar aris. gansakuTrebiT es SeiZleba iTqvas Camarxuli
narCenebis gazis da anaerobuli duRilis Sesaxeb. eleqtrosadgurebSi myari
sawvavis gamoyeneba yvelaze realuri meTodia. misi ZiriTadi maxasiaTeblebi
moyvanilia cxrilSi 5.14. am sferoSi identificirebuli proeqtebis Sesaxeb
raime konkretuli monacemebi ar aris.
qaris potenciali saqarTveloSi Seadgens daaxloebiT 83 teravat.sT/weliwadSi
da koncentrirebulia 4 an 5 ubanze. miuxedavad imisa, rom qaris energiiT
eleqtroenergiis generacias wyvetili xasiaTi aqvs, vizualurad amaxinjebs
xedebs da Sejaxebis saSiSroebas uqmnis frinvelebs, aseTi tipis ganaxlebadi
energiis wyaroebis gamoyeneba gasul periodSi msoflioSi yvelaze swrafad
gaizarda. savaraudoa, rom aseTi zrda saqarTveloSic moxdes. ukve
gaTvaliswinebulia 20 da 40 megavatis qaris eleqtrosadgurebis proeqtebis
ganxorcieleba.
hidrogeneraciis potencialis absoluturi indeqsis mixedviT saqarTvelo
meoTxe adgilzea dsT-s qveynebs Soris (ruseTis, tajikeTis da yazaxeTis
Semdeg), xolo qveynis teritoriaze hidro-potencialis koncentraciis
mixedviT igi msoflioSi erTerT pirvel adgilzea. Sefasebis mixedviT,
saqarTvelos mTliani teqnikuri hidro-potenciali Seadgens daaxloebiT 82
teravat.sT/weliwadSi da am potencialis naxevari koncentrirebulia 30 mgvt-
ze dabali simZlavris eleqtrosadgurebSi.
ZiriTadi hidroresursebi (72%) koncentrirebulia dasavleT saqarTvelos
teritoriaze. ZiriTadad aTvisebuli iyo md. engurisa da md. rionis
potenciali. saqarTvelos mTliani hidrogeneraciis potencialis Sefasebisas
gansakuTrebuli yuradReba daeTmo mcire hesebs. mcire hidrogeneraciis
potenciali qveynis mTel teritoriazea ganawilebuli.
Geo
rgia
: St
rate
gic
Envi
ronm
enta
l Ass
essm
ent
of P
ower
Sec
tor D
evel
opm
ent
Fin
al R
epor
t
150
cxrili 5.14 zogadi informaciaGsaqarTveloSi ganaxlebadi energiis wyaroebis Sesaxeb
informacia
mzis
geoTermul
ibiomasa
qari
hidro
eleqtrogeneraciis
teqnologiis
ganviTarebulis
done
dabali,
izolirebuli,
adgilobrivi
miwodeba
saSualo,
Cveulebriv
kogeneracia
maRali,
gansakuTrebis
xis resursebiT
maRali
maRali
saqarTveloSi
eleqtrogeneraciis
mTliani
potenciali
1
teravat.sT/weli
NA
465 mgvt Tburi
15 mgvt.e
350000
toe
/weli
10 mgvt.e
3300 mgvt
83
teravat.sT/weli
82 teravat.sT/weli
eleqtroenergia
gamoyeneba
saqarTveloSi
arsebuli
gaTvaliswinebuli
ar arsebobs;
siTbos
generacia ufro
realisturia
arsebobs;
siTbos
generacia ufro
efeqturia
arsebobs;
siTbos da
eleqtroenergiis
generacia
SesaZlebelia
Eeleqtroenergia
<10
mgvt
10-50
mgvt
50-100 mgvt
>100
mgvt
konkretulu
sadguris
Seswavla/ proeqti
arsebobs
ara
ara
ara
ara
ara
ara
ara
diax
sadguris ZiriTadi
saangariSi
maxasiaTeblebi
sadguris
simZlavre (mgvt)
1.5
30
3030
0.
1- 1010
-50
50-1
00
metismetad
specifikur
ia yoveli
obieqtisaT
Geo
rgia
: St
rate
gic
Envi
ronm
enta
l Ass
essm
ent
of P
ower
Sec
tor D
evel
opm
ent
Fin
al R
epor
t
151
vis
sadguris
simZlavris
koeficienti (%
) 20
90
70
35
5045
45
(specifikuri
a yoveli
obieqtisaTvi
s)
metismetad
specifikur
ia yoveli
obieqtisaT
vis
saangariSo
wliuri
generacia(gvt.sT)
2.6
236
184
92
4411
829
6
metismetad
specifikur
ia yoveli
obieqtisaT
vis
kapitalis
Rirebuleba
(aSS$/kvt
)90
0035
00
3000
16
0030
0027
0025
00
metismetad
specifikur
ia yoveli
obieqtisaT
vis
wyaroebi [1
], [2
]. [3
], [4
], [5
]. [6
]:
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
152
saqarTvelos ganaxlebadi energiis wyaroebis maxasiaTeblebi mocemulia
cxrilSi 5.14. Sesfaseba emyareba saqarTvelos saTanado uflebamosili
organoebis mier mowodebul monacemebs, agreTve mTel rig kvlevebSi ([1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6]) Camoyalibebul mosazrebebs. es kvleva gamoiyeneba rogorc
zogadi sabaziso informacia ganaxlebadi energiis wyaroebis aTvisebis
proeqtebis ranJirebisaTvis, vidre moxdeba saqarTvelos energosistemaSi
gaTvaliswinebuli potenciuri proeqtebis winaswari Sefaseba.
saqarTveloSi arsebuli TiToeuli tipis ganaxlebadi wyaros aRweriloba
mocemulia momdevno ramodenime qveTavSi.
5.3.1. hidrogeneraciis potenciali
hidrogeneraciis potencialis absoluturi indeqsis mixedviT saqarTvelo
meoTxe adgilzea dsT-s qveynebs Soris (ruseTis, tajikeTis da yazaxeTis
Semdeg), xolo qveynis teritoriaze hidro-potencialis koncentraciis
mixedviT igi msoflioSi erTerT pirvel adgilzea. (cxrili 5.15)
cxrili 5.15 hidrogeneraciis potenciali saqarTveloSi
maxasiaTeblebi sul hesebis simZlavre
30 mgvt
hidrogeneraciis mTliani
Teoriuli potenciali
miliardi kvt.sT/weli 194.0 81
teqnikurad aTvisebadi
hidrogeneraciis
potenciali
miliardi kvt.sT/weli 82.0 40
ekonomikurad aTvisebadi
hidrogeneraciis
potenciali,miliardi kvt.sT/weli
32.0 NgansazRvruli
ar aris
eleqtroenergiis generacia
arsebul hesebze
miliardi kvt.sT/weli 7.6 0.28
ekonomikuri potencialis
procenti, % 23.7
wyaro [1], 2003
hidrogeneraciis ZiriTadi resursebi (72%) koncentrirebulia dasavleT
saqarTvelos teritoriaze. ZiriTadad aTvisebuli iyo md. engurisa da md.
rionis potenciali. saqarTvelos mTliani hidrogeneraciis potencialis
Sefasebisas gansakuTrebuli yuradReba daeTmo mcire hesebs. mcire
hidrogeneraciis potenciali qveynis mTel teritoriazea ganawilebuli.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
153
[1] - Strategic Assessment of the Potential for Renewable Energy in the EBRD Countries of Operation (COO), Stage 1., Black & Veatch Corporation, 2003. [2] - Blue Energy for A Green Europe, Strategic study for the development of Small Hydro Power in the European Union, 2002. [3] – Capacity building to assess technology needs modalities to asquire and absorb them, evaluate and host projects, National Agency on Climate Change at the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection, 2002 [4] – Strategic/Sectoral Social and Environmental Assessment of Power Development Options in the Nile Equatorial Lakes Region, SNC Lavalin Internation, 2007 [5] – Generation Investment Study for SEE region, EC and World Bank, 2005 [6] – Small HPPs in Serbia, IFC, 2005
saqarTvelos 300-ze meti mdinaris analizi gviCvenebs, rom arsebobs 1 200
saderivacio tipis mcire hesis aSenebis SesaZlebloba, saidanac 700 SeiZleba
dasavleT saqarTveloSi aSendes.
mTeli potenciali SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnas sxvadasxva hidrosadgurebis
agebis gziT, romlebic Cveulebriv sididis mixedviT ramodenime kategoriad
iyofa. es zogadi kategoriebia: mini hesebi – 10 mgvt-ze naklebi simZlavris,
mcire hesebi – 10 mgvt-dan 50 mgvt-mde, saSualo hesebi 50 mgvt-dan 100 mgvt-
mde, didi hesebi – 100 mgvt-s zemoT.
mTavari parametrebi da kapitaluri xarjebi didadaa damokidebuli adgilis
Taviseburebebze da Zalian mravalferovania. imisaTvis, rom hesis muSaobisa da
Rirebulebis Sefaseba SevZloT saWiroa gvqondes monacemebi proeqtis adgilisa
da wylis resursebis Sesaxeb.
mini da mcire hesebs Cveulebriv didi wyalsacavebi ar aqvT da saimedo pikur
resurss ar warmoadgenen, xolo didi da saSualo hesebis proeqtebisaTvis
sxvadasxva sainJionro gadawyvetis moZebna SeiZleba da es sadgurebi maTi
adgilmdebareobis mixedviT ufro specifikurni arian vidre mini da mcire
hesebi.
amJamad saqarTveloSi 110 mgvt simZlavris daaxloebiT 30 mcire da mini hesi
arsebobs da maTi mniSvnelovani nawili privatizirebulia. am hesebs
reabilitacia WirdebaT. zogierTi maTgani dabali warmadobiT muSaobs, xolo
sxvebi saerTod ar muSaoben.
2002 wels energetikis saministrom ganaxorciela kvleva “ganaxlebadi
energiis wyaroebis potenciali da maTi gamoyenebis programa”. mogvianebiT am
programis erTerTma avtorma – sainJinro-sakonsultacio kompaniam “basiani
93”-ma 177 mcire da mini hesis mSeneblobis ufro dazustebuli gegma
SeimuSava. am hesebis parametrebi dadgenil iqna topografiuli rukebisa da
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
154
hidrologiuri monacemebis analizis safuZvelze. zogierTi sadgurebisaTvis
biznes-gegmebic SemuSavda.
monacemebi mini hidrosadgurebis Sesaxeb moyvanilia cxrilSi 5.16
cxrili 5.16. potenciuri mini hesebi saqarTveloSi (0.1 - 1 mgvt)
hesis
dasaxelebamdinare
derivaciis
tipi
wylis
xarji
(m3/s)
Hdawneva
(m)
nominaluri
simZlavre
(mgvt)
wliuri
generacia
(kvt.sT)kaxeTis raioni
girevi gireviswyali milsadeni 0.3 82.4 0.14 0.7 xoSanTxevi xoSanTxevi milsadeni 0.2 182.0 0.32 1.7
qvemo qarTlis regioni
dmanisi dmanisi milsadeni 2.2 20.0 0.3 2.0 Sida qarTlis raioni
TeZami TeZami milsadeni 1.5 48.0 0.6 2.5 ateni tana milsadeni 1.5 75.0 0.8 3.6 bobnevi tana milsadeni 1.2 40.0 0.4 1.8 biisi tana milsadeni 1.0 70.0 0.5 2.25 boSuri tana milsadeni 0.7 65.0 0.3 1.35 tursebi tana milsadeni 0.4 100.0 0.3 1.30 gagluani tana milsadeni 0.2 110.0 0.15 0.65
mcxeTa-TianeTis raioni
Cxeri Cxeri milsadeni 0.7 173.0 1.0 6.82 gergeTi baSi milsadeni 0.2 126.0 0.14 0.95 gaiboTeni Cxati milsadeni 0.2 263.0 0.43 2.93 tkarSeTii usaxelo milsadeni 0.2 186.0 0.24 1.64 xurtisi kesia milsadeni 0.6 115.0 0.47 3.20 mna mna milsadeni 1.0 107.0 0.75 5.10 axalcixe arTxmo milsadeni 0.9 37.2 0.23 1.57 pavliani qsani milsadeni 2.0 50.0 0.80 5.10 largvisi qsani milsadeni 4.0 20.4 0.67 5.00
guriis raioni
qadagauri pavlisRele milsadeni 0.2 68.0 0.1 0.69 ianeuli Uusaxelo milsadeni 0.1 126.0 0.57 3.93 yviriliswya
liyviriliswyali milsadeni 1.8 58.5 0.73 5.23
Cxakoura saTevznaeRele milsadeni 0.6 94.0 0.4 2.87 baxmaro baxviswyaki milsadeni 2.0 37.5 0.62 3.23 buqSieTi baxviswyaki milsadeni 1.1 49.0 0.38 1.98 askana oCxanura milsadeni 0.5 48.0 0.17 0.89 makvaneTi agi-daqva milsadeni 0.8 34.0 0.2 1.23
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
155
hesis
dasaxelebamdinare
derivaciis
tipi
wylis
xarji
(m3/s)
Hdawneva
(m)
nominaluri
simZlavre
(mgvt)
wliuri
generacia
(kvt.sT)samcxe-javaxeTis raioni
niali miraSxani milsadeni 1.0 160.0 1.00 6.5 gujareTi 1 gujareTi milsadeni 4.0 33.6 0.89 4.41 timoTesubani gujareTi milsadeni 3.0 24.8 0.49 2.38 waRveri gujareTi milsadeni 4.0 28.6 0.76 3.68 daba gujareTi milsadeni 4.0 30.6 0.81 3.86 bakuriani 1 bakurianiswyali milsadeni 0.4 66.0 0.19 0.76 bakuriani 2 bakurianiswyali milsadeni 0.4 85.8 0.24 1.07 patara cemi bakurianiswyali milsadeni 0.5 140.0 0.49 2.19 libani bakurianiswyali milsadeni 0.6 102.0 0.43 1.77 cemi bakurianiswyali milsadeni 0.6 112.0 0.47 2.07
raWa-leCxumis da qvemo svaneTis raioni
bobora bobora milsadeni 1.4 86.0 1.00 6.50 qveda qvedrula milsadeni 0.7 78.9 0.45 2.90 iri Waliswyali milsadeni 0.1 135.0 0.10 0.60 Wala Wala milsadeni 0.7 116.0 0.66 4.30 Corgi Wala milsadeni 0.6 88.0 0.43 2.80 nakieTi vaxaTwyali milsadeni 0.3 135.0 0.30 1.60 xoteura xoteura milsadeni 1.7 76.0 1.0 5.80 Wala zena milsadeni 1.2 36.5 0.35 1.90
AaWara
didvake kintriSi milsadeni 2.1 60.8 0.95 6.36 orbeza Caqviswyali gvirabi 2.0 47.5 0.68 4.84 afSila xeknara milsadeni 0.8 46.5 0.27 1.77 monastriswya
li
monastriswya
li milsadeni 0.5 103.9 0.34 2.33
meCxriswyali meCxriswyali milsadeni 0.5 98.4 0.35 2.40 boloko boloko milsadeni 1.2 96.0 0.86 6.14 nusreti boloko milsadeni 1.0 60.0 0.45 3.20 Carnali Carnali milsadeni 1.4 70.0 0.74 4.82 xulo mini diakoniZeebi milsadeni 0.5 144.4 0.50 4.00
sul saqarTveloSi 26.50 161.16
rogorc zemoT moyvanili cxrilidan Cans, axali hesebis mSenebloba
saqarTvelos TiTqmis yvela raionSia gaTvaliswinebuli. mniSvnelovania
aRiniSnos, rom mini hesebis mSeneblobis yvelaze didi perspeqtiva mTian
raionebSia (mcxeTa-TianeTSi, samcxe-javaxeTSi, raWa-leCxumSi da qvemo
svaneTSi, agreTve aWaraSi) romelTa eleqtromomarageba Zalian SezRudulia da
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
156
arasaimedo. agreTve arseboben mini da mikro hesebi, romlebic erTian qselSi
CarTulni ar arian da eleqtroenergias awodeben gadamcemi xazebisa da
gamanawilebeli qselebidan moSorebiT mdebare patara soflebs.
mini da mikro hesebis umravlesobas aqvs sakmarisi saangariSo wylis xarji (4-
6 Tve), mxolod zogierT maTgani aris pikuri (1 Tve) an sabaziso (11-12 Tve)
tipis. umetesoba saderivacio tipisaa. xarjebis Semcirebis mizniT saderivasio
milsadeni ideba mokirwyluli an mourkiwylavi gzebis gaswvriv.
am mini da mikro hesebis proeqtebis garda, 50 mgvt-mde simZlavris mcire
hesebis mSeneblobis didi potencialic arsebobs. 100-ze met proeqtSi es
potenciali 800 mgvt-mdea Sefasebuli.
qvemoT mocemulia mcire hesebis ruka:
grafiki 5-23. Mmcire hesebis ruka
mcire hesebis jgufSi gamoirceva Semdegi kaskadebi
neskras hesebis kaskadi (5 hesi) – 87,3 mgvt
CelTis hesebis kaskadi (5 hesi) – 13 mgvt
baxviswyalis hesebis kaskadi (2 hesi) – 22,3 mgvt
xramis hesebis kaskadi (3 hesi) – 125 mgvt
gubazeulis hesebis kaskadi (4 hesi) – 26,9 mgvt
Woroxis hesebis kaskadi (2 hesi) – 36,8 mgvt
rionis hesebis kaskadi (2 hesi) – 63,6 mgvt
amJamad saqarTveloSi mimdinareobs ramodenime proeqti, romlis farglebSic
xdeba sxvadasxva zomis, axali, ekologiurad sufTa proeqtebis analizi,rogorebicaa:
onis kaskadi (3 hesi) – 272 mgvt
mtkvari hesi – 247 mgvt
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
157
zestafoni hesi – 88 mgvt
diRomi hesi – 20 mgvt
foniWala hesi – 20 mgvt
saqarTvelos hidropotencialis sidide Sefasebulia rogorc mniSvnelovani,
magram hidrogeneraciis konkretuli proeqtebis Sesaxeb arsebuli informacia
sakmaod mwiria. miuxedavad amisa, mcire da saSualo hidrosadgurebis SerCeuli
jgufebis ZiriTadi parametrebi Sefasda sxvadasxva kvlevebis monacemebze
dayrdnobiT([1] –[6]), romlebic saqarTvelos mTavrobisagan iqna miRebuli da
konsultantis gamocdilebis safuZvelze. es parametrebi mocemulia cxrilSi
5.14.
ekologiuri zemoqmedeba
ara mxolod saSualo da didi, aramed mcire hidrosadgurebis zemoqmedebac
garemoze TiToeuli obieqtisaTvis specifikuria da maTi dadebiTi Tu
uaryofiTi ekologiuri Sedegebis zogadi Sefaseba Zalian Znelia.
SeiZleba CavTvaloT, rom garemoze zemoqmedebis potenciali saqarTvelos
mcire hesebis umravlesobisaTvis dabalia. unda gaviTvaliswinoT, rom
saqarTvelos mcire hesebis umravlesoba mTebSia ganlagebuli, amitom maT
SeiZleba hqondeT Semdegi ekologiuri Sedegebi:
aseTi hesebi Sedgeba mcire kaSxlisagan da grZeli saderivacio
gvirabisagan. wylis gamodinebis ekologiurad garantirebuli nakadis
kontrolis pirobebi Zalian gansxvavebulia, es TiTqmis SeuZlebelia.
amis gamo, mdinaris kalapotis grZel monakveTebze wylis done dabalia,
an is sruliad damSralia.
mdinareze aRmarTulma kaSxalma SeiZleba Seaferxos Tevzebis migracia
da qviriTis yra. am problemis gadaWris sul ramodemime gza arsebobs.
aqedan erTerTi “Tevzsataris” agebaa, romelic exmareba Tevzs mouaros
kaSxals, rodesac is qviriTis sayrelad mdinares aRma miyveba. es
gansakuTrebiT exeba im mdinareebs, sadac florisa da faunis zogierTi
endemiuri saxeobaa gavrcelebuli.
aseTi saxis sadgurebisaTvis saWiro ar aris didi teriroriis
datborva, rac saSualebas iZleva SevinarCunoT veluri buneba,
sacxovrebeli adgilebi an arqeologiuri mniSvnelobis teritoria.
saqarTveloSi, mdinaris dinebaze momuSave mcire sadgurebi, sadac
dinebis regulireba ar xdeba, Zalian arasasiamovno reJimSi imuSaveben,
wlis ganmavlobaSi mdinaris wylis xarjis uTanabrobis gamo. aseTi
saxis sadgurebisaTvis sakmaod Znelia yvelaze ufro mizanSewonili
mowyonilobis SerCeva, radganac wylis nakadis xangrZliobis diagrama
araTanabaria, wylis done dabalia xangrZlivi periodebis manZilze da
maRalia 3-4 Tvis ganmavlobaSi.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
158
ufro pozitiuri kuTxiT Tu SevxedavT, kaSxlis sedegad Seqmnili
rezervuarebi kargi dasasvenebeli adgilia; garda amisa, kaSxali wyaldidobis
controls uwyobs xels da amgvarad adgilobriv soflis meurneobasa da
municipalitetebs problemebis Tavidan acilebaSi exmareba.
5.3.2. qari
amJamad saqarTveloSi qaris ar aris qaris eleqtrosadgurebi ar aris., garda
zogierTi mcire 6 kvt blokebisa. amJamad am blokebis muSaobis pirobebi
ucnobia.
Sedgenilia qveynis qaris atlasi. masze gamoyofilia 4 ZiriTadi zona, sadac
30 metris simaRleze qaris saSualo wliuri siCqare 6 m/sT-ze maRalia, 2
zona – sadac qaris siCqarea 5-6 m/sT.
am TvalsazrisiT saqarTveloSi yvelaze perspeqtiulia didi kavkasionis
maRalmTiani zona, md. mtkvaris xeoba, samxreT saqarTvelos maRlobi
(javaxeTi) da Savi zRvis sanapiros samxreTi nawili (cxrili 5.17).
cxrili 5.17. saqarTveloSi qaris eleqtrosadgurebisaTvis yvelaze
perspeqtiuli adgilebi
didi kavkasioni
qveynis centraluri nawilebi. Zalian
maRali potenciali sabueTis mTaze,
cxrawyaroSi da mamisonis uReltexilze.
md. mtkvris xeoba mcxeTasa da rusTavs Soris
samxreT saqarTvelos
maRlobi (javaxeTi) faravnis tbis axlos
Savi zRvis sanapiros samxreTi
nawili qalaq foTis midamoebSi
wyaro: saqarTvelo – qaris atlasi, 2004.
> 6 m/s 4 - 6 m/s
2- 4 m/s
< 2 m/s
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
159
grafiki 5-24. qaris zonebi sxvadasxva saSualo wliuri siCqareebis moxedviT
sabWoTa kavSiris “generaluri gegmaSi 2010 wlamde qaris energiis aTvisebis
Sesaxeb” (1989) mocemuli Sefasebis mixedviT miwis zedapiridan 30 metris
simaRleze qaris resursebis potencialia 83 teravat.sT/weliwadSi, rac
SeiZleba karg maCveneblad CaiTvalos. sruli datvirTvis saaTebis saSualo
wliuri raodenobaa 2,500 sT., rac Sedegad gvaZlevs 33,200 mgvt teqnikur
potencials.
bolo wlebis manZilze “qarenergos” qaris energiis samecniero centris
xelsewyobiT saqarTveloSi SemuSavda qaris energiis aTvisebis axali
proeqtebi: 40 mgvt qaris sadguri baTumis raionSi da 20 mgvt qaris sadguri
foTis raionSi. orive obieqti Savi zRvis sanapiros samxreT nawilSi
mdebareobs. qaris energiis aTvisebis am ori proeqtis ganxorcieleba
gaTvaliswinebuli iyo CDM–is dafinansebiT da isini SemoTavazebul iqna
“klimaturi cvlilebebis aRmosavleTis qselis proeqtis” (Eastern Climate Change Network – ECCN, 1998-2002) mier, romelic xorcieldeboda
evrokavSiris komisiis “erToblivi Zalisxmevis programis” mier.
saqarTveloSi eleqtrogamanawilebeli kompaniis momaragebis doneze saWiro
qaris sadguris sidide savaraudod 0.10 mgvt-dan 2 mgvt-mde unda iyos, xolo
mcire jgufebis doneze eleqtromomaragebisaTvis – 30 mgvt. qaris energiis
gamoyenebisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli mniSvnelovani Tviseba isaa, rom igi wyvetadia
da simZlavris saSualo koeficienti meryeobs 15%-dan 40%-mde. simZlavris
koeficienti uSualod moqmedebs ekonomikur parametrebze, ris gamoc Zlieri
qarebis adgilas eleqtrosadguris ageba yvelaze rentabeluria.
cxrilSi 5.18 naCvenebia 30 mgvt qaris eleqtrosadguris tipiuri
maxasiaTeblebi, rodesac centrSi, 50 metris simaRleze, qaris saSualo
wliuri siCqare aris 8 m/sT.
cxrili 5.18. qari – parametrebi da Rirebuleba (2003)
wyaro: saqarTvelo – qaris atlasi,
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
160
sadguris wminda simZlavre (mgvt) 30simZlavris koeficienti (%) 25 – 35 ekonomikuri maCveneblebi
kapitaluri Rirebuleba ($/kvt) 1,000 – 1,400 saeqspluatacio da teqmomsaxurebis
fiqsirebuli xarjebi ($/kvt -weli)
10.5
saeqspluatacio da teqmomsaxurebis
cvladi xarjebi ($/mgvt.sT)5
gaTanabrebuli Rirebuleba ($/mgvt.sT) 41 – 71 wyaro: [1]
ekologiuri zemoqmedeba
gamonabolqvis TvalsazrisiT qaris teqnologiebi ekologiurad sufTa
teqnologiebia. miuxedavad amisa, garemoze zemoqmedebas mainc aqvs adgili, rac
vizualur efeqtebs da frinvelTaTvis Seqmnil saSiSroebas ukavSirdeba.
qaris teqnologiebi asaTviseblad saqarTveloSi yvelaze perspeqtiuli
adgilebia didi kavkasionis maRalmTiani raioni, md. mtkvaris xeoba, samxreT
saqarTvelos maRlobi (javaxeTi) da Savi zRvis sanapiros samxreTi nawili.
aRsaniSnavia, rom foTis midamoebSi qaris sadgurebis mSeneblobas unda
moveridoT, radganac es kolxeTis erovnuli parkis teritoriaa.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
161
saqarTveloSi romelime yvelaze perspeqtiul adgilas qaris sadgurebis
mSeneblobamde saWiroa yovelmxrivi analizis gakeTeba ekologiuri Sedegebis
minimumamde dayvanis mizniT, romlebic SeiZleba iyos:
qaris turbinebis mier Seqmnili uaryofiTi vizualuri efeqti. qaris
turbinebis simaRle uaxlovdeba da aRemateba 100 metrs, xolo
maqsimaluri efeqturobis misaRwevadmaT aRmarTaven mTis qedis daswvriv
da topografiulad amaRlebul sxva adgilebze. turbinebis sxvadasxva
tipis, mwarmoeblis, feris da brunvis kombinaciam SeiZleba gaaZlieros
vizualuri efeqti.
frinvelebze zemoqmedeba, Tu qaris eleqtrosadguri ganlagebulia
adgilobrivi frinvelebis populaciis an gadamfreni frinvelebis
gadaadgilebis zonebSi. am orive Sedegis nawilobrivi Serbileba
SesaZlebelia adgilis swori SerCevis, ekologiuri kvlevis da
dagegmvis procesSi sazogadoebis monawileobis gziT.
vibracia da xmauri, romelic iqmneba infrabgeris zonaSi. es garemoeba
fenomeni uaryofiTad moqmedebs cocxal arsebebze. gareuli cxovelebi
aseTi sadgurebis mier Seqmnili xmauris zemoqmedebis zonaSi cxovroben.
am xmas adamianebi ver eguebian, radganac garkveuli sixSire, romelic
adamians ar esmis, janmrTelobisaTvis sazianoa.
arsebobs garkveuli mosazrebebi, romelTa Tanaxmadac qaris
teqnologiebi mTlad ganaxlebadi tipis wyaroebs ar ganekuTvnebian,
radganac maTi mSeneblobisaTvis Zalian ZviradRirebuli masalebi
gamoiyeneba (foladi, spilenZi da sxva Senadnobebi), romelTa
warmoebisaTvis didi raodenobiT pirveladi sawvavis moxmarebaa saWiro.
am argumentebSi naCvenebia, rom Tavisi saeqspluatacio vadis manZilze
qaris sadgurebi ver gamoimuSaveben im odenobis energiis, rac maTi
masalebis warmoebaze iqna daxarjuli. aseT pirobebSi, qaris sadgurebis
mier warmoebuli energia ekologiurad sufTa, ganaxlebad energiad ver
iqneba miCneuli.
5.3.3. saqarTvelos geoTermuli resursebi
saqarTvelo saSualo da dabali temperaturis (33 – 108 ºC) geoTermuli
wylebiT mdidari erTerTi qveyanaa. amJamad saqarTveloSi geoTermuli energia
mxolod siTbos misawodeblad gamoiyeneba. saqarTveloSi arsebuli geoTermuli
wylis gansakuTrebuli Tvisebaa marilis dabali Semcveloba (1-3 gr/l) da
WebSi, milsadenebsa da mowyobilobaze naleqs ar ikeTebs. dRemde gamoiyeneboda
mxolod Sadrevnis meTodi, xelmeore Catumbvis gareSe. amis gamo, zogierT
sabadoebSi orTqlis wneva daeca da nakadi Semcirda.
Teoriulad saqarTveloSi geoTermuli wylebis saSualebiT energiis
generaciis potenciali Sefasebulia rogorc 245-290 mgvt, xolo teqnikuri
potenciali – daaxloebiT 150 mgvt. am potencialis asimilacia
yovelwliurad 1.3 miliardi kvt.sT energiis an 110 000 toe energiis
dazogvis saSualebas iZleva.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
162
saqarTvelos arsebuli 50 geoTermuli WaburRilebis umetesoba (ZiriTadad
ara-momqmedi) saSualo siRrmisaa da dabali temperaturis (40-60°C) mxolod
sanitaruli miznebisaTvis gankuTvnili wyalmomomaragebis uzrunvelyofa
SeuZlia. gaTbobisaTvis an eleqtroenergiis generaciisaTvis maTi gamoyeneba
SeuZlebelia. 2000 wlis monacemebiT saqarTvelos energetikis seqtori
yoveldRiurad mxolod 2000m3 geoTermul wyals iyenebs, anu wliurad 730
000 m3-s ZiriTadad TbilisSi, saburTalos raionSi, cxeli wylis miwodebis
mizniT. sxva sistemebi an dazianebulia an testirebis stadiazea. istoriulad,
geoTermuli Webis Tburi energia gamoiyeneboda saTburebSi, sacxovrebeli
ubnebis cxeli wyliT mosamarageblad da centraluri gaTbobis mcire
masStabis sistemebSi. geoTermul energiaze momuSave eleqtrosadgurebi
saqarTveloSi ar aris.
upirvelesi prioriteti unda mieniWos ori arsebuli Wis reabilitaciasa da
optimizacias. es Webia: saburTaloze (TblisSi) da zugdidSi (dasavleT
saqarTveloSi). Tbilisis maxloblad arsebuli lisis rezervuaris analizi
aCvenebs, rom SesaZlebelia warmoebis gazrda weliwadSi 1 milioni m3-dan 4
milion m3-mde. warmodgenili informaciis mixedviT igive SesaZleblobebia
zugdidi-caiSis obieqtzec, sadac agreTve saWiro iqneba milebis sistemis
ZviradRirebuli saremonto samuSaoebis Catareba.
resursis aTviseba amJamad xdeba Sadrevnis meTodiT, rasac Tan sdevs
gamoyenebuli wylis mcire raodenobis Catumbva. amis Sedegad, zogierTi
resursebi Semcirda. am rezervuarebis srulad gamoyenebisaTvis saWiroa
sabadoebis menejmentis ganxorcieleba wylis xelmeore Catumbvis gziT.
ZiriTadi geoTermuli sabadoebi dasavleT saqarTveloSia (rezervuarebis
formaciebi zeda carculi periodis danawevrebuli karstuli kirqvaa danaleq
RrmulebSi) da samxreT-aRmosavleTSi (paleocenis–Sua eocenis
vulkanuri/qviSaqvebi nakecis sistemebSi) (ix. ruka naxazze 5-25).
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
163
grafiki 5-25. ZiriTadi geoTermuli wyaroebi saqarTveloSi [1]–is mixedviT
aqamde qarTveli specialistebi iTvaliswinebdnen resursebis gamoyenebas
mxolod siTbos miwodebis mizniT da mxolod 2005 wels daigegma 0.5 mgvt.e
geoTermuli eleqtrosadguris mSenebloba [1].
cnobilia, rom rodesac wylis temperatura 90 ºC–ze maRalia, arsebobs
binaruli eleqtrosadgurebis meSveobiT eleqtroenergiis generaciis
SesaZlebloba. sainteresoa agreTve arsebuli sabadoebis potenciali
kogeneraciis TvalsazrisiT. magaliTad kindRi-oxureis sabadoze, sadac
Tarmuli wylis temperatura udris 105 ºC–s, xolo mosalodneli mTliani
xarji - 360 kg/wm.-s, SesaZlebelia 4 mgvt.e binaruli eleqtrosadgurebis
aSeneba. am eleqtrosadgurebze gamoyenebuli wylis temperatura 80 ºC iqneba
da misi gamoyeneba SesaZlebelia siTbos misawodeblad. [1]–is mixedviT
saqarTveloSi kogeneraciis ramodenimesadguris simZlavrem SeiZleba jamSi
Seadginos 15 mgvt.e.
qveda carcul formaciebSi maRali temperaturis (150 ºC-mde) geoTermuli
wyaroebis aRmoCenis SemTxvevaSi (rac uaxloes wlebSia mosalodneli) gaCndeba
binaruli geoTermuli eleqtrosadguris mSeneblobobis SesaZlebloba.
gavrcelebis farTo areali da sakmaod dabali mineralizacia (0.4-2.2 gr./l)
xels uwyobs saqarTveloSi geoTermuli wyaroebis gamoyenebas energiis
generaciisaTvis, gansakuTrebiT cxeli wylis miwodebis mizniT.
eleqtroenergiis generaciis mizniT geoTermuli wyaroebis gamoyenebis
magaliTis saCveneblad, binaruli ciklis eleqtrosadguris saangariSo
parametrebi warmodgenilia cxrilSi 5-19.
1-gagra, 2-soxumi-dranda,3-kindRi-oxurei,4-zugdidi-caiSi-reCqi, 5-kvaloni,6-menji-samtredia-vani, 7-Tbilisi,8-ujarma, 9-wyaltubo, 10-varZia-naqalaqevi
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
164
mniSvnelovania aRiniSnos, rom geoTermuli sadgurebis kapitaluri xarjebi
SeiZleba Zalian gansxvavebuli iyos, radganac calkeuli Webis burRva SeiZleba
xuT milion dolaramde dajdes da WaburRilebis ricxvi damokidebulia imaze,
Tu ra warmatebiT iqneba napovni geoTermuli wyali.
cxrili 5-19. geoTermuli wyaroebi – parametrebi da xarjebi ( 2003) sadguris wminda simZlavre (mgvt) 4simZlavris koeficienti (%) 90ekonomikuri maCveneblebi
kapitaluri Rirebuleba ($/kvt) 2,500 – 3,500 saeqspluatacio da teqmomsaxurebis
fiqsirebuli xarjebi ($/kvt -weli)
40 - 80
saeqspluatacio da teqmomsaxurebis
cvladi xarjebi ($/mgvt.sT)1.5 - 4
gaTanabrebuli Rirebuleba ($/mgvt.sT) 40 – 60 SeniSvna: Sefaseba iTvaliswinebs binaruli ciklis geoTermuli sadguris
gamoyenebas.
ekologiuri Sedegebi
iseTi dabali mineralizaciis Webis SemTxvevaSic ki rogorc saqarTveloSia,
swori midgomis ararsebobis SemTxvevaSi, geoTermul wyalSi gaxsnili
mineralebi da saSiSi ara-kondensirebadi gazebi SeiZleba ekulogiurad
problematuri iyos (wylis ukan Catumbva bevr problemas xsnis). garemoze
zemoqmedebis minimumamde dasayvanad, geoTermul eleqtrosadgurebze
gamoyenebuli unda iyos gamonabolqvis kontrolis Tanamedrove teqnologiebi.
aseT SemTxvevaSi, am sadgurebidan gamonabolqvi wiaRiseul sawvavze momuSave
yvelaze sufTa sadgurebis CO2 gamonabolqvis 0.2%-ze da gogirdis orJangis
gamonabolqvis 1%-ze naklebia.
wylis temperaturebi da debitebi gansakuTrebiT kargia afxazeTSi, kolxeTis
dablobze da Tbilisis maxloblad. vinaidan am geoTermul wyaroTa umetesoba
mdidaria aqtiuri elementebiT, maTi gamoyeneba meorad damuSavebas saWiroebs,
rac ekonomikur Rirebulebas amcirebs. ufro metic, Tu geoTermuli wyali
srulad gamoyenebuli ar aris, Cndeba mezobeli mdinareebis dabinZurebis
saSiSroeba, garda im SemTxvevebisa, rodesac wyali ukan itumbeba, rac sistemas
aZvirebs. aRniSnuli faqtorebi, agreTve soflis meurneobisa da
sayofacxovrebo miznebisaTvis energiaze moTxovnilebis sezonuroba da
zogierTi Wis dabali warmadoba da cudi mdgomareoba iwveven imas, rom
geoTermuli energiis wili qveynis mTlian energetikul balabsSi Zalian
dabalia: erTi procentis mxolod ramodenime meaTeds Seadgens.
[1] - g.BbuaCiZe, Oo. vardigoreli, n. cercvaZe. ganaxlebuli monacemeni
saqarTvelos Sesaxeb. moxsenebebi. msoflio geoTermuli kongresi 2000, tokio
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
165
(Country Update from Georgia. Proceedings World Geothermal Congress 2000, Tokyo, 2000). [2] - A Strategic Plan for the Development of European Geothermal Sector. Blue Book on Geothermal Resources, European Communities, 1999.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
166
5.3.4. biomasis resursebi saqarTveloSi
aq mocemuli ar aris informacia saqarTveloSi biomasis sawyvavis gamoyenebiT
eleqtroenergiis generaciis ukve ganxorcielebuli proeqtebis Sesaxeb.
cxrilSi naCvenebia saqarTveloSi arsebuli biomasis mTliani resursi
(monacemebi saqarTvelos biomasis mTliani resursis Sesaxeb, 2002).
biomass resursis tipi MmTliani warmoeba warmoebis
intensiuroba
pirveladi mosavlis warmoeba,tona
(saSualod 1999-2001, tona)
(tona/1000 heqtari)
mTliani pirveladi mosavali
(ranJireba)6,106,847 (21) 876 (20)
pirveli 10 pirveladi
mosavali
furaJis produqtebi
(Sereuli)4,066,667 583
kartifili 375,120 54simindi 312,134 45xorbali 207,160 30yurZeni 203,333 29pamidori 171,667 25kombosto 115,667 17vaSli 97,891 14sazamTro 86,067 12forToxali 42,667 6Sinauri cxovelebi, raodenoba (raodenoba) (raodenoba / 1000
heqtari)rqosani pirutyvi 1,086,500 156Sinauri frinvelebi 8,356,000 1,199 Rorebi 388,490 56Sinauri cxovelebis
eqvivalenturi erTeuli
1,325,456 190
tyis produqtebi, m3 (saSualod 1999-2000, m3) (m3/1000 heqtari)sawvavi SeSa NA NA tyis narCeni produqtebi NA NA
saqarTvelos tyeebis ganaxlebis saSualo saangariSo parametria 1.82 m3
/weliwadSi 1 heqtarze da tyis mTliani rezervia daaxloebiT 380 milioni m3,
rac energetikasa da mreqvelobaSi yovelwliurad 3-5 milioni m3-is moWrili
xis da narCenebis gamoyenebis saSualebas iZleva. amave dros
gasaTvaliswinebelia, rom tyeebis ZiriTadi nawili ganlagebulia mTis
ferdobebze da maTi Setana mTliani moxmarebis balansSi mizanSewonili ar
aris ekologiuri katastrofis maRali riskis gamo, radganac es masStabur
erozias da mewyers gamoiwvevs.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
167
biomasisa da narCenebis energetikuli gamoyenebis potencialis Sefaseba,
romelic EEC saqarTvelom evrokavSirSi SemuSavebuli meTodologiebisa da
teqnologiebis gamoyenebiT ganaxorciela gviCvenebs, rom qveynis teqnikuri
energiis mTliani potenciali udris daaxloebiT 400 000 toe (tona energia)weliwadSi, Tumca arsebobs mniSvnelovani saSiSroeba, rom es cifri
sinamdvileSi mniSvnelovnad ufro maRalia amJamadac ki, rodesac xetyis
ukanono Wris gasakontroleblad mkacri administratiuli zomebi
xorcieldeba. garda amisa, saimedo statistikuri monacemebis ararseboba
kvlavac problemad rCeba da abrkolebs mniSvnelovani dargis ganviTarebas,
rogoricaa energiis adgilobrivi wyaroebis aTviseba.
garda amisa, biomasisa da narCenebis gamoyeneba SeiZleba energiis dazogvis
mizniT. anaerobuli duRilis Sedegad 1 tona nakelidan 100 m3 biogazis miReba
SeiZleba, xolo Tanmdevi produqti SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnas rogorc
maRali xarisxis sasuqi (Tumca sasuqis raodenoba Semcirdeba nakelis
Tavdapirvel moiculobasTan SedarebiT). am variantis nakli isaa, rom
saqarTveloSi, sadac mineraluri sasuqebis raodenoba sakmarisi ar aris, ufro
racionaluri iqneboda nakelis gamoyeneba organul sasuqad da ara energiis
wyarod. ufro metic, zamTarSi, rodesac energiis deficiti mwvavea, saWiro
xdeba biogazis danadgarebisaTvis rezervuaris gaTboba, rom duRilis procesi
daCqardes, ris gamoc es danadgarebi Tavisi warmoebuli energiis 30-50%-s
moixmaren.
miaxloebiTi SefasebiT, biomasisa da narCenebis ekonomiurad gamarTlebuli
energetikuli potenciali Seadgens daaxloebiT 130-150 aTas tona navTobis eqvivalents (toe), im SemTxvevaSi, Tu mokle da saSualovadian periodSi
xelmisawvdomi iqneba teqnikuri potencialis 25-40%.
bio-resursebs Soris gaTvaliswinebuli unda iyos soflis meurneobis narCen
produqtebze momuSave biogazis sadgurebis gamoyenebis SesaZleblobac. amJamad
saqarTveloSi ukve ramodenime aTeuli biogazis danadgari muSaobs. maTi
simZlavre sakmarisia rom ojaxi sawvaviT maragdebodes mTeli wlis
ganmavlobaSi.
eleqtroenergiis generaciis mizniT biomasis gamoyenebis magaliTis
saCveneblad, cxrilSi 5.20 warmodgenilia xetyis narCenebze momuSave
eleqtrosadguris saangariSo parametrebi. aRsaniSnavia, rom monacemebi am
regionisaTvis identificirebuli proeqtebis Sesaxeb xelmisawvromi ar aris.
cxrili 5.20. biomasa – parametrebi da Rirebuleba (2003) sadguris wminda simZlavre (mgvt) 30 sdguris wminda Tburi koeficienti (Btu/kvt.sT)
14,500
simZlavris koeficienti (%) 70-90 ekonomikuri maCveneblebi
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
168
kapitaluri Rirebuleba ($/kvt) 2,000 – 2,500 saeqspluatacio da teqmomsaxurebis
fiqsirebuli xarjebi ($/kvt -weli)
60
saeqspluatacio da teqmomsaxurebis
cvladi xarjebi ($/mgvt.sT)8
gaTanabrebuli Rirebuleba $2/ milioni
Btu–s SemTxvevaSi, sawvavis Rirebuleba
($/mgvt.sT)
83 – 100
gaTanabrebuli Rirebuleba $0/milioni
Btu–s SemTxvevaSi, sawvavis Rirebuleba
($/mgvt.sT)
44 - 61
ekologiuri zemoqmedeba
wiaRiseul sawvavze momuSave sadguren\bis msgavsad biomasis sawvavze momuSave
sadgurebs garkveulwilad aqvT gamonabolqvTan dakavSirebuli problemebi. am
danadgarebidan atosferoSi gamoiyofa CO2, azotmJavebi, sxvadasxva nawilakebi
da nivTierebebi, romlebic sawvavis wvis Tanmdev damabinZurebel nivTierebebs
warmoadgenen. biomasis ciklis gaTvaliswinebiT (kvlavwarmoqmnis CaTvliT), es
gamonabolqvi, gansakuTrebiT CO2-is gamofrqveva, gacilebiT ufro dabalia,
vidre wiaRiseuli sawvavis SemTxvevaSi. ekologiuri TvalsazrisiT biomasis
wvis kidev erTi dadebiTi momentia is, rom mcirdeba nagavsayreli ormoebis da
sxva saxis nagansayrelebis teritoria, romelic winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi
sasargeblo teritoriis nawils daikavebda.
anaerobuli bioreaqtors mravali sxva dadebiTi ekologiuri Sedegebi moaqvs:
1. uzrunvelyofen nakelisa da sxva organuli narCenebis lokalizaciis
sistemas; 2. xsnian sunis problemas; 3. amcireben haerze nakelis xrwnis
Sedegad gamoyofili meTanis moculobas; 4. nakelSi arsebuli azoti
gardaiqmneba amiakad, romelic ufro advilad gardaiqmneba mcenareebis mier
vidre azoti. Sesabamisad, niadagi azotis Warb rodenobas aRar Seicavs, rasac
adgili eqneboda miwaze mofenili nakelis SemTxvevaSi; dabolos 5. energiis
generaciis dros xdeba wiaRiseuli sawvavis Canacvleba biogaziT.
nagavsayrelebSi warmoqmnili gazis wvis dros, iseve rogorc TiTqmis yvela
sxva saxis sawvavis wvis SemTxvevaSi, gamoiyofa garemos damabinZurebeli
novTierebebis garkveuli odenoba. miuxedavad amisa, mTlianobaSi generaciis
sistemebSi nagavsayrelebis gazis gamoyeneba dadebiTad fasdeba garemos dacvis
specialistebis mier. es imiTaa gamowveuli, rom winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi
nagavsayrelis gazi atmosferoSi gamoiyofoda, rac “saTburis efeqts” qmnis
meTanis Semcvelobis gamo. am gazis Segrovebisa da meTanis naxSirorJangad
gardaqmnis gziT mcirdeba “saTburis efeqtis” mqone gazebis moculoba.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
169
5.3.5. mzis energiis resursebi
amJamad saqarTveloSi mzis energia sakmaod cudadaa aTvisebuli. aRsaniSnavia
mxolod brtyeli koleqtorebis da maTi saSualebiT wylis gaTbobis
sistemebis gamoyeneba. miuxedavad amisa, dabali gadaxdisunarianobis gamo maTze
moTxovnileba dabalia da energiis warmoebis moculobebi mcire.
saqarTvelos geografiuli mdebareobis gaTvaliswinebiT, mzis radiaciis done
da xangrZlioba Zalian maRali da xangrZlivia. qveynis umetes raionebSi mziani
periodebis xangrZlioba 250-dan 280 dRemdea, rac, dRis xangrZliobis
gaTvaliswinebiT, weliwadSi daaxloebiT 1900-2200 saaTs udris. mzis
energiis aTvisebis potencialis maCveneblebi warmodgenilia cxrilebSi 5.21 da
5.22 Tbilisisa (dedaqalaqi) da soxumisaTvis.
cxrili 5.21. mzis radiaciis mTliani Tviuri da wliuri maCvenebeli
horizontalur sibrtyeze, mj/m2 adgilis
dasaxelebaI II III IV V VI VII VII IX X XI XII wliuri
Tbilisi 178 235 382 487 621 679 703 628 468 331 186 150 5048 soxumi 186 227 385 459 629 705 706 626 481 335 202 148 5089
cxrili 5.22. mzis pirdapiri radiaciis mTliani Tviuri da wliuri
maCvenebeli normalur sibrtyeze mzis sxivebis mimarT, mj/m2adgilis
dasaxelebaI II III IV V VI VII VII IX X XI XII wliuri
Tbilisi 209 238 336 410 514 626 631 619 494 401 230 197 4905 soxumi 255 235 375 381 509 595 565 551 504 410 280 206 4866
5.21 da 5.22 cxrilebSi moyvanili monacemebi aRebulia [1]–dan da warmoadgenen mravalwliani dakvirvebebis gasaSualoebul sidideebs.
5.21 da 5.22 cxrilebSi moyvanili monacemebi Zalian tipiuria saqarTvelos
teritoriis udidesi nawilisaTvis. miuxedavad amisa, qveynis samxreT-dasavleT
nawilSi, kerZod aWaraSi (baTumSi) mzis energiis aTvisebis potenciali
gacilebiT ufro dabalia. rTuli mTiani reliefi agreTve Zalian moqmedebs
mzis energiis potencialis sidideze. amave dros, TiTqmis SeuZlebelia
romelime iseTi zonis gamoyofa, sadac es potenciali 5.21 da 5.22 cxrilebSi
moyvanil monacemebze ufro maRali iqneboda.
Sefasebis mixedviT, saqarTveloSi mzis energiis mTliani Teoriuli
potenciali weliwadSi daaxloebiT 108mgvt.sT-s udris, rac weliwadSi
daaxloebiT 34 miliardi tona eqvivalenturi sawvavia.
mzis energiis gamoyenebis gamocdileba gviCvenebs, rom misi transformireba
eleqtroenergiad arc ekonomikuri da arc energetikuli TvalsazrisiT
mizanSewonili ar aris. miuxedavad amisa, mzis energiis Tbur energiad
gardaqmna mzis koleqtorebis gamoyenebiT (wylis gaTboba) Zalian xelsayrelia.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
170
mosalodnelia, rom momavali 10 wlis ganmavlobaSi dabali potencialis
Tburi datvirTvis 5% mzis energiis xarjze iqneba dakmayofilebuli, rac
garkveuli Sveba iqneba eleqtrosistemisaTvis. saSualovadian periodSi mzis
energiis moxmareba SeiZleba mniSvnelovnad gaizardos sacxovrebel korpusebSi,
soflis meurneobaSi, sakvebis gadamuSavebaSi, xis masalis gaSrobaSi da a.S.
zogadad mzis energias grZelvadian periodSi kargi perspeqtiva aqvs
mniSvnelovani wvlili Seitanos qveynis energetikul balansSi, magram amJamad
fotoelementebiT warmoebuli eleqtroenergia jer kidev metismetad Zviria,
rom saqarTveloSi farTo gamoyeneba hpovos. Sesabamisad, mzis energiis
teqnologiebis aTvisebis stimuli ar arsebobs.
fiqsirebuli daxrilobis mqone erTi kristaluri danadgaris zogadi
maxasiaTeblebi mocemulia cxrilSi 5.23.
cxrili 5.23. mzis elementebi – parametrebi da Rirebuleba (2003) sadguris wminda simZlavre (mgvt) 1.5 simZlavris koeficienti (%) 20 – 22 ekonomikuri maCveneblebi
kapitaluri Rirebuleba ($/kvt) 7,000 – 9,000 saeqspluatacio da teqmomsaxurebis
fiqsirebuli xarjebi ($/kvt -weli)
5.7 – 8.2
saeqspluatacio da teqmomsaxurebis
cvladi xarjebi ($/mgvt.sT)0.5 – 1.5
gaTanabrebuli Rirebuleba ($/mgvt.sT) 330 – 470
ekologiuri Sedegebi
mzis elementebis erTerTi yvelaze Zlieri mxare isaa, rom
damontaJebis Semdeg isini garemos faqtiurad ar abinZureben.
miuxedavad amisa, mzis elementebis warmoebis dros gamoiyofa mZime
metalebi, rac saTanado zedamxedvelobisa da kontrolis gareSe
SeiZleba mavne iyos. tradiciul teqnologiebTan SedarebiT es
ekologiuri zemoqmedeba umniSvneloa.
[1] – samecniero cnobari ssrk-s klimatis Sesaxeb, “hidrometeoizdat”, l., me-
15 gamocema, 1990.
5.3.6. ganaxlebadi teqnologiebis proeqtebis winaswari Sefaseba
xelmisawvdomi teqnikuri potencialis, teqnologiis ganviTarebis
donis da saangariSo kapitaluri xarjebis Sefasebis safuZvelze
moxda ganaxlebadi teqnologiebis proeqtebis Sefaseba maTi
potenciuri sargeblianobasa da Rirebulebis Tanafardobis
safuZvelze. es Sedegebi gamoyenebul iqna rogorc ganaxlebadi
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
171
teqnologiebis iseTi samagaliTo proeqtebis SesamuSaveblad,
romelTa ganxorcielebac SesaZlebelia 2021 wlamde periodSi.
am analizSi Setanili iyo yvela ganaxlebadi wyaro, mzis
fotoelementebis garda.
danarTSi aRwerili meTodologiis safuZvelze, ganaxlebadi
teqnologiebis yvela potenciur proeqts, romelic SeiZleba
saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuliyo, mieniWa garkveuli xarisxi - .
gamoangariSebul iqna proeqtebis TiToeuli jgufis rigiTobis
xarisxi (RI), risTvisac mimdinare Rirebulebisa da mosalodneli
sargebelis Sefardeba gayofil iqna xarjebze. sargebelis
gamoangariSeba moxda eleqtroenergiis garantirebuli generaciisa
da meoradi energiis jamisa da saimedo simZlavris safuZvelze.
xarjebi Sefasda rogorc sainvesticio xarjebs plus
eqspluataciisa da teqmomsaxurebis xarjebis mimdinare Rirebuleba.
Sedegebi warmodgenilia cxrilSi 5.24.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
172
cxrili 5.24. ganaxlebadi teqnologiebis proeqtebis rigiTobis Sefasebis
Sedegebi
sadguris
dasaxeleba
dadgmuli
simZlavre
saimedo
simZlavre
sadguris
koeficienti
saSualo
wliuri
generacia
wliuri
generacia
gvalvian
wels
kapitalur
i xarjebi
sadguris
saeqsplua
tacio
vada RI=B/C
(mgvt) (mgvt) (%) (gvt.sT) (gvt.sT)aSS$/ kvt. wlebi
mcire,
10 mgvt-ze
naklebi
10 9 50 44 31 3000 40 0.63
mcire,
10-dan 50 mgvt.-mde
25 23 45 99 69 2700 40 0.65
saSualo
50 - 100 mgvt 75 68 45 296 207 2500 40 0.71
qari 30 0 35 92 92 1600 25 0.56 geoTermuli 15 14 90 118 118 3500 25 0.65 biomasa 10 9 70 61 61 3000 25 0.63 xudoni 638 638 24 1328 1009 947 50 1.56 namaxvanis
kaskadi 450 450 40 1568 1192 1424 50 1.31
faravani 123 123 41 440 334 919 50 2.06
zemoT moyvanili cxrilidan Cans, rom didi hesebis rigiTobis maCvenebeli
yvelaze maRalia, xolo qaris eleqtrosadgurebisa – yvelaze dabali. es
imiTaa gamowveuli, rom rigiTobis Sefasebis dros gaTvaliswinebulia ara
mxolod generaciiT gamowveuli efeqtebi, aramed simZlavreze damokidebuli
efeqtebic (Semosavlebi), rac qaris sadgurebis SemTxvevaSi ugulebelyofilia.
geoTermuli da biomasis wyaroebis SemTxvevaSi rigiTobis indeqsi igive
donezea, rac mcire hesebis SemTxvevaSi, radganac am sadgurebis simZlavris
koeficienti maRalia, magram kapitaluri xarjebic maRalia. miuxedavad amisa,
imis gamo rom saqarTveloSi geoTermuli da biomasis wyaroebis gamoyenebiT
eleqtroenergiis generacia jerjerobiT dRis wesrigSi ar dgas da rom
saangariSo teqnikuri potenciali sakmaod dabalia (15 mgvte da 10 mgvte), es
resursebi Setanili ar aris ganaxlebadi teqnologiis samagaliTo proeqtSi.
garda amisa, saSualo sididis (50 da 100 mgvt) hesebis proeqtebi SeiZleba
ganxilul iqnas rogorc “ara-mcire” (aq ar Sedis wyalsacavis armqone, dabali
dawnevis sadgurebi, romelic mcire zemoqmedebas axdenen gaermoze). maTi
parametrebi Zalian specifikuria yvela calke aRebuli obieqtisaTvis, ris
gamoc maTi jgufuri analizi SeuZlebelia. amrigad es kategoriac gamoiricxa
ganaxlebadi teqnologiis samagaliTo proeqtebis ricxvidan.
yvelaferi zemoTqmulis gaTvaliswinebiT, ganaxlebadi teqnologiis samagaliTo
proeqti moicavs 10 mgvt-ze dabali simZlavris mcire hesebs, 10-dan 50 mgvt-
mde mcire hesebs da qaris eleqtrosadgurebs. ganaxlebadi wyarebis tipebis
mixedviT navaraudevia eleqtrosadguris Semdegi simZlavreebi:
10 mgvt-ze dabali simZlavris mcire hesebi – 5 mgvt
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
173
10-dan 50 mgvt-mde mcire hesebi – 25 mgvt
qaris eleqtrosadgurebi – 30 mgvt, erTi agregatis simZlavre
1.5.
amis garda, ganaxlebadi energiis wyaroebis mTliani simZlavre, romlis
aTvisebac SesaZlebelia 2021 wlamde, Sefasda rogorc 495 mgvt, imis
gaTvaliswinebiT, rom wlis ganmavlobaSi maTi gamoyenebis maCveneblebi iqneba
Semdegi:2011-2015 ww. periodi
ganaxlebadi
wyaro
10 mgvt-ze
dabali
simZlavris
mcire
hesebi
10-dan 50
mgvt-mde
mcire
hesebi
qaris
eleqtrosadgurebi
ganaxlebadi
teqnologiis
samagaliTo
proeqti
proeqtebis
raodenoba
periodis
manZilze
10 5 1
mTliani
simZlavre
periodis
manZilze
50 mgvt 125 mgvt 45 mgvt 220 mgvt
proeqtebis
raodenoba
weliwadSi
2 1 6 agregati
simZlavris
namati
weliwadSi
10 mgvt 25 mgvt 9 mgvt 44 mgvt
sadguris
saangariSo
koeficienti
50 %sT 45 % 35 % 44 %
kapitaluri
xarjebi 3000 $/kvt 2700 $/kvt 1600 $/kvt 2543 $/kvt
2015-2021 ww. periodi
ganaxlebadi
wyaro
10 mgvt-ze
dabali
simZlavris
mcire hesebi
10-dan 50
mgvt-mde
mcire
hesebi
qaris
eleqtrosadgurebi
ganaxlebadi
teqnologiis
samagaliTo
proeqti
proeqtebis
raodenoba
periodis
manZilze
15 5 2
mTliani
simZlavre
periodis
75 mgvt 125 mgvt 75 mgvt 275 mgvt
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
174
manZilze
proeqtebis
raodenoba
weliwadSi
3 1 10 agregati
simZlavris
namati
weliwadSi
15 mgvt 25 mgvt 15 mgvt 55 mgvt
sadguris
saangariSo
koeficienti
50 % 45 % 35 % 44 %
kapitaluri
xarjebi 3000 $/kvt 2700 $/kvt 1600 $/kvt 2482 $/kvt
ganaxlebadi teqnologiis samagaliTo proeqtis kapitaluri xarjebi
ganisazRvra samagaliTo proeqtSi Setanili proeqtebis xarjebis safuZvelze,
ris Sedegadac miRebul iqna Semdegi:
ganaxlebadi teqnologiis samagaliTo proeqtma, romelic 2011-2015 wlebisaa dagegmili, unda uzrunvelyos 44 mgvt/w., 170 gvt.sT
saSualo wliuri generacia da 2543 US$/kvt saSualo Sewonili
kapitaluri xarjebi.
ganaxlebadi teqnologiis samagaliTo proeqtma, romelic 2015-2020 wlebisaa dagegmili, unda uzrunvelyos 55 mgvt/w., 210 gvt.sT
saSualo wliuri generacia da 2482US$/kvt saSualo Sewonili
kapitaluri xarjebi.
umciresi danaxarjebiT energetikis ganviTarebis dagegmvis dros, ganaxlebadi
teqnologiis samagaliTo proeqtis Tviuri generacia hesebisaTvis gamisazRvra
xudonhesis wliuri generaciis Tviur ganawilebaze dayrdnobiT, xolo qaris
sadgurebisaTvis – wrfivi Tviuri ganawilebis safuZvelze, rac neCvenebia
cxrilSi 5. 25.
cxrili 5.25 ganaxlebadi teqnologiis samagaliTo proeqtis Tviuri generacia
MTviuri
generacia
(gvt.sT)
2011-2015 ww. ganaxlebadi
teqnologiis
samagaliTo proeqti
2015-2021 ww. ganaxlebadi
teqnologiis
samagaliTo proeqti
ianvari 12.3 15.2Tebervali 8.5 10.5marti 9.6 11.8aprili 13.1 16.2maisi 21.8 27.0ivnisi 23.1 28.5ivlisi 23.1 28.5agvisto 14.3 17.7seqtemberi 13.1 16.2
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
175
oqtomberi 7.5 9.3noemberi 10.9 13.5dekemberi 12.7 15.7Awliuri 170 210
Tu am midgomas gamoviyenebT, 2015 wels saqarTvelos eleqtroenergiis mTlian
balansSi ganaxlebadi energiis wyaroebis wili, qaris sadgurebis monawileobis
SemTxvevaSi, iqneba 8% da 10 mgvt-ze dabali simZlavris mcire hesebis
monawileobis SemTxvevaSi - 3.5 %. 2021 wlamde periodSi es wili savaraudod
iqneba 15% qaris sadgurebis monawileobis SemTxvevaSi da 7% - 10 mgvt-ze
dabali simZlavris mcire hesebis monawileobis SemTxvevaSi. igulisxmeba, rom
ganviTarebis aseTi alternatiuli gza SesaZlebelia im SemTxvevaSi, Tu
mTavroba SemoiRebs Zlier mastimulirebel meqanizmebs da xels Seuwyobs
momavalSi ganaxlebadi wyaroebis gamoyenebas eleqtroenergiis generaciis
mizniT.
ganaxlebadi energiis wyaroebis aTvisebis gamovlenili samagaliTo proeqtebi
gamoyenebuli iyo umciresi danaxarjebiT energetikis ganviTarebis dagegmvis
dros, rac aRwerilia me-6 TavSi.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
176
6. generaciis ganviTarebis gegmebi
momavali ganviTarebis gegmebi ganisazRvra eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis
sami sxvadasxva variantisaTvis, arsebuli da axali hesebisa da Tbosadgurebis
zemoxsenebul maxasiaTeblebze dayrdnobiT da dagegmvis mizniT gakeTebuli
daSvebebisa da kriteriumebis safuZvelze.
qvemoT moyvanil 6.1 cxrilSi naCvenebia yvela gaanalizebuli scenari. igi
Seicavs monacemebs moTxovnilebis prognozis, gazis fasis prognozis,
eleqtroenergiis importis da hesebis SerCevis meTodis Sesaxeb.
alternatiuli variantebis analizis dros, ganviTarebis programaSi hesebis
Setana moxda sxvadasxva midgomebis gamoyenebiT, dawyebuli sruliad
“Tavisufali” SerCeviTY(am SemTxvevaSi WASP modeli arCevans akeTebs
ekonomikuri mosazrebebidan da sxva moTTxovnilebebidan gamomdinare)
damTavrebuli zogierTi an yvela proeqtis “iZulebiTi” SerCeviT (am
SemTxvevaSi programiT mosargeble piri uTiTebs, Tu romeli proeqti unda
iyos Setanili ganviTarebis programaSi).
cxrili 6.1. SesaZloLscenarebi
scenaridatvirTvis
prognozi
gazis
fasis
prognozi
Eeleqtroe
nergiis
importi
hesebis SerCeva
sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba
sabaziso
scenari
SezRuduli importi
sabaziso saSualo ara
yvela
“Tavisufali”
SerCeviT
alternativa 1
gnaxlebadi wyaroebi sabaziso saSualo ara
prioriteti
eniWebaT ganaxlebad
teqnologiebs
Priority for alternativa 2 importi sabaziso saSualo diax
yvela
“iZulebiTi”
SerCeviT
alternativa 3 mxolod gazi
sabaziso saSualo ara hesebis gareSe
alternativa 4 mxolod xudonhesi sabaziso saSualo ara
xudonhesi
“iZulebiTi”
SerCeviT
alternativa 5 mxolod namaxvanis
kaskadi
sabaziso saSualo ara
namaxvanis
kaskadi
“iZulebiTi”
SerCeviT
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
177
scenaridatvirTvis
prognozi
gazis
fasis
prognozi
Eeleqtroe
nergiis
importi
hesebis SerCeva
alternativa 6 mxolod naxSiri
sabaziso saSualo ara hesebis gareSe
alternativa 7 Tbosadgurebi da
hesebi
sabaziso maRali ara
yvela
“Tavisufali”
SerCeviT
alternativa 8 Tbosadgurebi da
hesebi
sabaziso dabali ara
yvela
“Tavisufali”
SerCeviT
maRali saprognozo moTxovnileba (HDF)sabaziso
scenari HDF SezRuduli importi
dabali saSualo ara
yvela
“Tavisufali”
SerCeviT
alternativa 2 HDF importi dabali saSualo diax
yvela
iZulebiTi
SerCeviT
dabali saprognozo moTxovnileba (LDF)sabaziso
scenari LDF SezRuduli importi
maRali saSualo ara
yvela
“Tavisufali”
SerCeviT
alternativa 2 LDFimportis
alternativa
maRali saSualo diax
yvela
iZulebiTi
SerCeviT
analizi ZiriTadad Sesrulda sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnilebisaTvis, xolo
sensitiurobis analizi gakeTda dabali da maRali saprognozo
moTxovnilebisaTvis. mosalodneli saprognozo datvirTvebi warmodgenilia
cxrilebSi 6.2 da 6.3.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
178
cxrili 6.2. Awliuri pikuri datvirTvis prognozi (mgvt)
2007 w. 2015 w. 2021 w.
sabaziso
saprognozo
moTxovnileba
1591 2025 2392
maRali
saprognozo
moTxovnileba
1591 2351 3150
dabali
saprognozo
moTxovnileba
1591 1938 2248
saSualo wliuri zrdis koeficientia 3% sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnilebis
SemTxvevaSi, 5% - maRali saprognozo moTxovnilebis SemTxvevaSi da 2.5% -
dabali maRali saprognozo moTxovnilebis SemTxvevaSi.
cxrili 6.3. Aenergiis wliuri prognozi (gvt.sT)
Y2007 w. Y2015 w. Y2021 w.
sabaziso
saprognozo
moTxovnileba
8167 10395 12279
maRali
saprognozo
moTxovnileba
8167 12069 16170
dabali
saprognozo
moTxovnileba
8167 9948 11540
2021 wlisaTvis energiaze wliuri maRali saprognozo moTxovnileba sabaziso
moTxovnilebasTan SedarebiT 32%-iT ufro maRalia, xolo dabali saprognozo
moTxovnileba - 6%-iT dabali.
6.1. dagegmvisas gamoyenebuli ZiriTadi daSvebebi da kriteriumebi
proeqtis sawyis stadiaze SeTanxmebuli iyo, rom WASP IV kompiuteruli
programis paketi gamoyenebuli iqneba minimaluri danaxarjebiT generaciis
sistemis ganviTarebis saSualo/grZelvadiani gegmis SemuSavebisas, sistemis
ganviTarebis sxvadasxva scenarebis gaTvaliswinebiT. amisaTvis saWiro gaxda
ramodenime damatebiTi daSvebis da kriteriumis miReba.
konsultantis gamocdilebaze da saqarTvelos energosistemis Sesaxeb codnaze
dayrdnobiT, sistemis ganviTarebis gegmaze muSaobis procesSi miRebul iqna
Semdegi daSvebebi da kriteriumebi:
dagegmvis periodia 2007 wlis 1 ianvridan 2021 wlis 31 dekembramde.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
179
yvela xarjebi ganisazRvra 2007 wlis 1 ianvrisaTvis arsebul fasebze
dayrdnobiT, inflaciis gaTvaliswinebis gareSe.
analizi gakeTda aSS dolarebSi, gacvlis kursiT 1 aSS $ – 1.67 lari,
xolo evrosa da aSS dolars Soris Tanafardobis koeficienti - 0.752.
sabaziso realur diskontirebis normad navaraudevia 10%, diskontireba
gakeTda 2007 wlis 1 ianvramde;
navaraudevia, rom hidrosadgurebis ekonomikurad sasargeblo
saeqspluatacio vada iqneba 50 weli;
Tbosadgurebis agregatebis ekonomikurad sasargeblo saeqspluatacio
vada iqneba:
o kombinirebuli ciklis gazis turbina (CCGT) - 25 weli
o OCGT 20 weli
o CHP 25 weli
generaciis sistemis gafarToebis saboloo gegmis ganisazRvrisas
mxedvelobaSi iyo miRebuli sistemis mier saimedo eleqtromomaragebis
aucilebloba. sistemis gaTiSvis albaTobaa (LOLP) erTi dRe weliwadSi.amis Sedegad viRebT Sesadar sarezervo marJas sistemis ganviTarebis
saboloo gegmisaTvis;
mocemul kvlevaSi miuwodebeli energiis (ENS) Rirebulebad aRebulia
0.57$/kvt.sT, rac 10-jer aRemateba Tbosadgurebis yvelaze maRal
tarifs).
saqarTvelodan eleqtroenergiis eqsportis saSualo fasi navaraudevia
35 $/mgvt.sT, da
eleqtroenergiis importis saSualo fasi navaraudevia 35 $/mgvt.sT.
6.2. sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba
sabaziso scenari
saqarTvelos energosistemis momavali ganviTareba didadaa damokidebuli imaze
Tu ra daSveba iqneba gakeTebuli eleqtroenergiis importTan mimarTebaSi,
gansakuTrebiT import-eqsportis grZelvadiani kavSirebis ararsebobis
gaTvaliswinebiT. Cveulebriv dagegmvis dros upirveles yovlisa eyrdnobian im
mosazrebas, rom energosistemas qveynis mTliani moTxovnilebis dakmayofileba
damoukideblad unda SeeZlos. es principi gaTvaliswinebuli iyo sabaziso
scenaris analizis dros. masSi warmodgenilia alternatiuli varianti
yvelaze ufro srulad akmayofilebs adgilobriv moTxovnilebas da yvelaze
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
180
naklebadaa damokidebuli importze. kerZod minimaluri danaxarjebiT sistemis
ganviTarebis dagegmvis dros SemuSavebuli sabaziso scenari Semdeg
daSvebebs eyrdnoba:
importi daSvebulia 2010 wlamde, e.i. mxolod im periodSi romlis
drosac generaciis axali obieqtebis aSeneba SeuZlebelia;
importirebuli eleqtroenergiis moculobis minimumamde dayvanis mizniT
prioriteti eniWeba arsebul Tbosadgurebs, miuxedavad imisa, Tu ra
Tanafardoba arsebobs Tbosadgurebis tarifsa da importis tarifs
Soris;
gazis sawvavze momuSave pirveli Tbosadguri eqspluataciaSi Sedis 2011
wlidan;
navaraudevia, rom bunebrivi gazis miwodebaSi araviTari SezRudvebi ar
aris;
SerCeuli hesebi eqspluataciaSi Sedian 2013 wlidan;
yvela hidrosadguri gegmaSi Setanili iyo ekonomikuri kriteriumebis
mkacri gaTvaliswinebiT (yvela hesi SeirCa “Tavisufali” SerCevis gziT).
eleqtroenergiis importis simulireba moxda eleqtroenergiis gacvlis
formiT. navaraudevia rom importi ganxorcieldeba zamTris TveebSi
(seqtembridan aprilamde) xolo arsebuli da axali hesebis generaciis
importi moxdeba mais-agvistoSi da importisa da eqsportis moculobebi wlis
ganmavlobaSi dabalansdeba.
sabaziso scenaris analizidan naTelia, rom eleqtroenergiis generaciis
simZlavreebSi investiciebis Cadeba saqarTvelos energosistemisaTvis saWiro
gaxdeba 2009 wlidan. am scenarisaTvis aRebuli sabaziso saprognozo
moTxovnilebidan da daSvebebidan gamomdinare, cxadi xdeba, rom 2009 wlidan
saqarTvelos energosistema saimedod ver daakmayofilebs eleqtroenergiis
prognozirebul moTxovnilebas generaciis axali simZlavreebis gareSe.
minimaluri xarjebiT generaciis sistemis ganviTarebis gegmam aCvena, rom 2007-
2008 wlebSi sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba SeiZleba dakmayofildes
arsebuli eleqtrosadgurebis meSveobiT, eleqtroenergiis importis damatebis
gareSe. kerZod, gaangariSebis mixedviT, 2007-2008 wlebSi sistemis saimedobis
done (LOLPs) saWiro 0.274%-ze dabalia da naTelia, rom naTelia, rom
sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba sistemis saimedobis saWiro doneze
SeiZleba dakmayofildes gaanalizebuli dasagegmi periodis dasawyisSi.
2009 wels mdgomareoba icvleba. minimaluri xarjebiT generaciis sistemis
ganviTarebis gegmam aCvena, rom 2009 wels sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba
ar SeiZleba dakmayofildes arsebuli eleqtrosadgurebis mier, damatebiTi
importis an axali energoblkebis mSeneblobis gareSe. kandidati
eleqtrosadgurebis Sesaxeb arsebuli informaciis safuZvelze (romelic wina
TavebSi iyo Sejamebuli), gazis sawvavze momuSave axali blokebi
eqspluataciaSi ver Seva 2011 wlamde, imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom gazis
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
181
blokebis (CCGT 150 mgvt) mSeneblobas 3 weli dasWirdeba, xolo axali
hesebis eqspluataciaSi gaSveba savaraudod 2013 wels iqneba SesaZlebeli.
damatebiTi eleqtroenergiis importi saWiroa mxolod weliwadis “kritikul”
periodSi, zamTris TveebSi, roforc es 6.4. cxrilidan Cans. eleqtroenergiis
importis moculobebi, romelic 6.4 cxrilSia warmodgenili, iTvaliswinebs,
rom realizebuli importi hidrologiuri pirobebis albaTobazea
damokidebuli.
cxrili 6.4. eleqtroenergiis importi (gvt.sT)
2009 2010
ianvari 2.1 4.3Tebervali 2.0 4.3marti 0.0 0.5arili-
seqtemberi 0.0 0.0
oqtomberi 0.0 0.0noemberi 0.0 0.0dekemberi 0.0 2.6sul 4.2 11.7
sabaziso scenarisaTvis generaciis axali simZlavreebis wliuri
zrdis gegma warmodgenilia cxrilSi 6.5.
cxrili 6.5. generaciis sistemis ganviTarebis gegma sabaziso saprognozo
moTxovnilebisa da sabaziso scenarisaTvis
sabaziso scenaris analizis dros konsultantis mier gamovlenili
ZiriTadi faqtebia:
2021 wlisaTvis saqarTvelos energosistemas dasWirdeba 1684 mgvt
generaciis axali simZlavreebi.2021 wlamde saWiro iqneba 576 mgvt Tbogeneracis axali simZlavreebi
da 1108 mgvt hidrogeneraciis axali simZlavreebi.
2009 wlisaTvis importi Seadgens 30 mgvt da 4 gvt.sT, xolo 2010
wlisaTvis 60 mgvt da 12 gvt.sT.
2007-2021 wlebSi mSeneblobis, eqspluataciis da miuwodebeli energiis
wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba iqneba 2,109 milioni aSS$; da hesebis Warbi generaciis importidan miRebuli SesaZlo mogeba (PREV) Seadgens 245 milion aSS dolars.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
182
weli
Ppikuri
datvirTva
(mgvt)
axali simZlavre
sistemis
saimedoba
(LOLP)
importi
(mgvt/gvt.sT
)
2007 1591 0.156
2008 1640 0.191
2009 1690 0.127 30/4
2010 1741 0.196 60/12
2011 1795 CCGT 144mgvt 0.004
2012 1850 0.160
2013 1906 faravanhesi (120 mgvt)
tviSi hesi (100 mgvt) 0.005
2014 1965 namaxvanhesi (250 mgvt) 0.036
2015 2025 kombinirebuli ciklis gazis
turbina 144 mgvt x 2 0.000
2016 2087 0.251
2017 2151 kombinirebuli ciklis gazis
turbina 144 mgvt0.004
2018 2209 0.005
2019 2268 0.197
2020 2330 HPxudonhesi (638 mgvt) 0.000
2021 2392 0.110
Total 1,684 mgvt
yvela gaanalizebuli alternatiuli variantis (ara mxolod sabaziso
scenaris)Sedegebis mixedviT, Cans rom faravanhesis mSenebloba gamarTlebulia
da rom am hidrosadguris samSeneblo samuSaoebi unda daiwyos Zalian male,
rom misi gaSveba SesaZlebeli gaxdes rac SeiZleba adre, an yovel SemTxvevaSi
2013 wlis dasawyisSi mainc.
amis garda, optimaluri gadawyveta, romelic eleqtroenergiis importis
minimumamde dayvanas iTvaliswinebs, moiTxovs gazis sawvavze momuSave,
kombinirebuli ciklis 4 blokis, namaxvanis kaskadis da xudonhesis
mSeneblobas. miuxedavad amisa, xudonhesis mSenebloba gadadebulia 2020
wlamde imis gamo, rom mezobel qveynebTan eleqtroenergiis gacvla navaraudevi
ar aris da rom hesebis Warbi generacia ar gamoiyeneba. kerZod, hesebis Warbi
generacia gaangariSebulia yvela alternatiuli variantisaTvis da eqsportis
yvela gaanalizebuli alternatiuli variantis (ara mxolod sabaziso
scenaris)Sedegebis mixedviT, Cans rom faravanhesis mSenebloba gamarTlebulia
da rom am hidrosadguris samSeneblo samuSaoebi unda daiwyos Zalian male,
rom misi gaSveba SesaZlebeli gaxdes rac SeiZleba adre, an yovel SemTxvevaSi
2013 wlis dasawyisSi mainc.
amis garda, optimaluri gadawyveta, romelic eleqtroenergiis importis
minimumamde dayvanas iTvaliswinebs, moiTxovs gazis sawvavze momuSave,
kombinirebuli ciklis 4 blokis, namaxvanis kaskadis da xudonhesis
mSeneblobas. miuxedavad amisa, xudonhesis mSenebloba gadadebulia 2020
wlamde imis gamo, rom mezobel qveynebTan eleqtroenergiis gacvla navaraudevi
ar aris da rom hesebis Warbi generacia ar gamoiyeneba. kerZod, hesebis Warbi
generacia gaangariSebulia yvela alternatiuli variantisaTvis da eqsportis
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
183
potenciali Sefasebulia 35 aSS$/mgvt.sT fasze dayrdnobiT. sabaziso
scenarSi potenciuri Semosavali, romelic SeiZleba hesebis Warbi
generaciis eqsportidan iyos miRebuli 245 million aSS$-s Seadgens. am
SemosavalSi ar Sedis eleqtroenergiis gacvla 2009-2010 wlebSi saWiro
importis dasabalanseblad.
sabaziso scenaris mixedviT, sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnilebis
SemTxvevaSi, 2007-2021 wlebSi arsebuli da axali hidro da Tbosadgurebis
gaangariSebuli simZlavre da mosalodneli wliuri generacia mocemulia
grafikebze 6-1 da 6-2.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Years
Inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (M
W)
HppExist TppExist HppNew TPPnew Import Peak Load
grafiki 6-1: sabaziso scenari da sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba
– dadgmuli simZlavre da wliuri pikuri datvirTvebi
35 aSS$/potenciali Sefasebulia /mgvt.sT fasze dayrdnobiT. sabaziso
scenarSi potenciuri Semosavali, romelic SeiZleba hesebis Warbi el
245 le
aSS$-generaciis eqsportidan iyos miRebuli million -s Seadgens. am
SemosavalSi ar Sedis eleqtroenergiis gacvla 2009-2010 wlebSi saWiro
importis dasabalanseblad.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
184
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Years
Ener
gy (G
Wh)
HPPexisting TPPexisting HPPnew TPPnew Import Consumption
grafiki 6-2: sabaziso scenari da sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba
- mosalodneli generacia da wliuri moxmareba
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
185
alternativa 1 ganaxlebadi wyaroebi
sabaziso scenaris farglebSi gansaxorcielebeli kandidati proeqtebis
ricxvSi gaanalizebul iqna me-5 TavSi Sefasebuli da aRwerili ganaxlebadi
teqnologiebis samagaliTo proeqtebi, magram isini ver Sevidnen minimaluri
danaxarjebiT sistemis ganviTarebis gegmaSi. amis gamo, SemuSavda ganaxlebadi
wyaroebis alternativa N#1, rogorc erTerTi varianti, romelic ganaxlebadi
wyaroebis proeqtebis ganxorcielebas da qvemoT moyvanil wliur maCveneblebs
iTvaliswinebs:
2011-2015 ww. periodi
ganaxlebadi
wyaro
10 mgvt-ze
dabali
simZlavris
mcire hesebi
10-dan 50
mgvt-mde
mcire hesebi
qaris
eleqtrosadgurebi
ganaxlebadi
teqnologiis
samagaliTo
proeqti
proeqtebis
raodenoba
periodis
manZilze
10 5 1
mTliani
simZlavre
periodis
manZilze
50 mgvt 125 mgvt 45 mgvt 220 mgvt
proeqtebis
raodenoba
weliwadSi
2 1 6 bloki
simZlavris
namati
weliwadSi
10 mgvt 25 mgvt 9 mgvt 44 mgvt
sadguris
saangariSo
koeficienti
50 % 45 % 35 % 44 %
kapitaluri
xarjebi 3000 $/kvt 2700 $/kvt 1600 $/kvt 2543 $/kvt
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
186
2015-2021 ww. periodi
ganaxlebadi
wyaro
10 mgvt-ze
dabali
simZlavris
mcire hesebi
10-dan 50
mgvt-mde
mcire hesebi
qaris
eleqtrosadgurebi
ganaxlebadi
teqnologiis
samagaliTo
proeqti
proeqtebis
raodenoba
periodis
manZilze
15 5 2
mTliani
simZlavre
periodis
manZilze
75 mgvt 125 mgvt 75 mgvt 275 mgvt
proeqtebis
raodenoba
weliwadSi
3 1 10 bloki
simZlavris
namati
weliwadSi
15 mgvt 25 mgvt 15 mgvt 55 mgvt
sadguris
saangariSo
koeficienti
50 % 45 % 35 % 44 %
kapitaluri
xarjebi 3000 $/kvt 2700 $/kvt 1600 $/kvt 2482 $/kvt
Tu am midgomas gamoviyenebT, 2015 wels saqarTvelos eleqtroenergiis mTlian
balansSi ganaxlebadi energiis wyaroebis wili, qaris sadgurebis monawileobis
SemTxvevaSi, iqneba 8% da 10 mgvt-ze dabali simZlavris mcire hesebis
monawileobis SemTxvevaSi - 3.5 %. 2021 wlamde periodSi es wili savaraudod
iqneba 15% qaris sadgurebis monawileobis SemTxvevaSi da 7% - 10 mgvt-ze
dabali simZlavris mcire hesebis monawileobis SemTxvevaSi. igulisxmeba, rom
ganviTarebis aseTi alternatiuli gza SesaZlebelia im SemTxvevaSi, Tu
mTavroba SemoiRebs Zlier mastimulirebel meqanizmebs da xels Seuwyobs
momavalSi ganaxlebadi wyaroebis gamoyenebas eleqtroenergiis generaciis
mizniT.
minimaluri danaxarjebiT sistemis ganviTarebis dagegmvisas SemuSavebuli
alternativa 1 – ganaxlebadi wyaroebi Semdeg daSvebebs eyrdnoba:
importi daSvebulia 2010 wlamde, e.i. mxolod im periodSi romlis
drosac generaciis axali obieqtebis aSeneba SeuZlebelia;
importirebuli eleqtroenergiis moculobis minimumamde dayvanis mizniT
prioriteti eniWeba arsebul Tbosadgurebs, miuxedavad imisa, Tu ra
Tanafardoba arsebobs Tbosadgurebis tarifsa da importis tarifs
Soris;
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
187
gazis sawvavze momuSave pirveli Tbosadguri eqspluataciaSi Sedis 2011
wlidan;
ganaxlebadi teqnologiebis proeqtebis ganxorcieleba iwyeba 2011 wlidan
da yovelwliurad emateba 44 mgvt (2015 wlis Semdeg - 55 mgvt);
navaraudevia, rom bunebrivi gazis miwodebaSi araviTari SezRudvebi ar
aris;
SerCeuli hesebi eqspluataciaSi Sedian 2013 wlidan; da
yvela didi hidrosadguri da Tbosadguri gegmaSi Setanili iyo
ekonomikuri kriteriumebis mkacri gaTvaliswinebiT (yvela hesi SeirCa
“Tavisufali” SerCevis gziT).
eleqtroenergiis importis simulireba moxda eleqtroenergiis gacvlis
formiT - zustad ise,
rogorc sabaziso
scenarSi. navaraudevia
rom importi
ganxorcieldeba zamTris
TveebSi (seqtembridan
aprilamde) xolo
arsebuli da axali
hesebis generaciis
importi moxdeba mais-
agvistoSi da importisa
da eqsportis
moculobebi wlis
ganmavlobaSi
dabalansdeba.
alternativa 1 –
ganaxlebadi
wyaroebis
scenarisaTvis
generaciis axali
simZlavreebis wliuri
zrdis gegma
warmodgenilia cxrilSi 6.6.
sabaziso scenarTan SedarebiT ganaxlebadi teqnologiebis proeqtebis
ganxorcieleba gadaavadebs yvela msxvili hidrosadguris mSeneblobas, garda
faravanhesisa, romelic pirvel hidroproeqtadaa Setanili minimaluri
danaxarjebiT energosistebis ganviTarebis gegmaSi da 2013 wlidan unda
daiwyos. namaxvanis kaskadis proeqtebi gadavaddeba 2017/2018 wlebamde, xolo
xudonhesi saerTod ar aris Setanili am gegmaSi. gazis sawvavze momuSave
axali TbosadgurebisaTvis gegma igive rCeba rac sabaziso scenarSi, mxolod im
gansxvavebiT, rom gazis sawvavze momuSave erTerTi 144 mgvt blokis mSenebloba
odnav gviandeba: 2020 wlamde nacvlad 1017-isa.
“alternativa 1 – ganaxlebadi
wyaroebis” analizis dros konsultantis mier
gamovlenili ZiriTadi faqtebia:
2021 wlisaTvis saqarTvelos
energosistemas dasWirdeba 1541 mgvt
generaciis axali simZlavreebi.2021 wlamde saWiro iqneba 576 mgvt
Tbogeneracis axali simZlavreebi, 470 mgvt hidrogeneraciis axali simZlavreebi
da 495 mgvt ganaxlebadi teqnologiebis
axali proeqtebi.2021 wlamde saWiro
iqneba (120 mgvt qari, 125 mgvt hesebi<10 mgvt, 250 mgvt hesebi 10-dan 50 mgvt-mde);2009 wlisaTvis importi Seadgens 30
mgvt da 4 gvt.sT, xolo 2010 wlisaTvis
60 mgvt da 12 gvt.sT;2007-2021 wlebSi mSeneblobis,
eqspluataciis da miuwodebeli energiis
wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba iqneba 2,224 milioni aSS$; da hesebis Warbi generaciis importidan
miRebuli SesaZlo mogeba (PREV) Seadgens 274 milion aSS dolars.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
188
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
189
cxrili 6.6. generaciis sistemis ganviTarebis gegma sabaziso saprognozo
moTxovnilebisa da scenarisaTvis “alternativa 1 – ganaxlebadi
wyaroebi”
weli
Ppikuri
datvirTva
(mgvt)
axali simZlavre
sistemis
saimedoba
(LOLP)
importi
(mgvt/gvt.
sT)
2007 1591 0.156
2008 1640 0.191
2009 1690 0.127 30/4
2010 1741 0.196 60/12
2011 1795 kombinirebuli ciklis
gazoturbina (CCGT) 144mgvt
RRP* 44 mgvt
0.005
2012 1850 ganaxlebadi teqnologiebis
samagaliTo proeqti (RRP) 44 mgvt
0.004
2013 1906 faravanhesi (120 mgvt)
ganaxlebadi teqnologiebis
samagaliTo proeqti 44 mgvt
0.004
2014 1965 ganaxlebadi teqnologiebis
samagaliTo proeqti 44 mgvt0.127
2015 2025 kombinirebuli ciklis gazis
turbina 144 mgvt x 2 0.004
2016 2087 ganaxlebadi teqnologiebis
samagaliTo proeqti 55 mgvt0.208
2017 2151 tviSihesi (100 mgvt)
RRP 55 mgvt 0.225
2018 2209 namaxvanhesi (250 mgvt)
RRP 55 mgvt 0.080
2019 2268 ganaxlebadi teqnologiebis
samagaliTo proeqti 55 mgvt0.238
2020 2330 CCGT 144mgvtRRP 55 mgvt 0.000
2021 2392 0.000
sul 1,541 mgvt
* - RRP: ganaxlebadi teqnologiebis ganaxlebadi proeqti
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
190
hesebis Warbi saangariSi generacia daaxloebiT 274 milioni aSS$ potenciuri Semosavlis wyaroa (savaraudo fasia 35 US$/mgvt.sT., PREV). es Semosavali ar
moicavs 2009-2010 wlebSi saWiro importis sanacvlod miRebuli
eleqtroenergiis moculobas.
mixedviT, sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnilebis SemTxvevaSi, 2007-2021 wlebSi
arsebuli da axali hidro da Tbosadgurebis gaangariSebuli simZlavre da
mosalodneli wliuri generacia mocemulia grafikebze 6-3 da 6-4.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Years
Inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (M
W)
HppExist TppExist HppNew TPPnew Import RRP Peak Load
grafiki 6-3: alternativa 1 – ganaxlebadi wyaroebi” da sabaziso
saprognozo moTxovnileba - dadgmuli simZlavre da wliuri pikuri
datvirTvebi
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
191
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Years
Ener
gy (G
Wh)
HPPexisting TPPexisting HPPnew TPPnew Import RRP Consumption
grafiki 6-4: alternativa 1 – ganaxlebadi wyaroebi” da sabaziso
saprognozo moTxovnileba - mosalodneli generacia da wliuri
moxmareba
alternativa 2 (importi)
sabaziso scenaris sapirispiro variantis saxiT konsultantma SeimuSava
alternativa 2 romelic Semdeg daSvebebs eyrdnoba:
importi daSvebulia da xelmisawvdomi mTeli periodis manZilze anu 2021
wlamde;
arsebul Tbosadgurebs prioriteti ar eniWebaT importTan SedarebiT,
Tanafardoba Tbosadgurebis tarifsa da importis tarifs Soris
sruladaa gaTvaliswinebuli;
gazis sawvavze momuSave Tbosadgurebi gaanalizebuli ar aris;
navaraudevia, rom arsebuli sadgurebisaTvis bunebrivi gazis miwodebaSi
araviTari SezRudvebi ar aris;
yvela hidrosadguri gegmaSi Setanilia “iZulebiTi” SerCevis gziT, 2013
wlidan, ufro maRali sainvesticio xarjebis mqone ganaxlebadi
teqnologiebis simulirebisaTvis.
es daSvebebi gakeTda hesebis generaciis sezonurobis gaTvaliswinebiT, rogorc
es naTlad Cans 4-4 grafikze. kerZod, imis gamo, rom hesebis (axali da Zveli)
mTliani wliuri generaciis 60%-ze meti mais-agvistos Tveebze modis, gazis
sawvavze momuSave axali blokebis muSaobis periodi wlis ganmavlobaSi
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
192
sakmaod xangrZlivi ver iqneba rom maTi mSenebloba gaamarTlos. swored am
mTavari mizezis gamo navaraudevia, rom mTeli dasagegmi periodis manZilze
saqarTveloSi eleqtroenergiaze arsebuli moTxovnileba unda Seivsos
mezobeli qveynebidan (albaT TurqeTidan an somxeTidan) da daifaros
eleqtroenergiis gacvlis gziT. am gacvlis simuliteba moxda Semdegnairad:
sabaziso eleqtroenergiis importi zamTris TveebSi (seqtemberi – aprili) da
arsebuli da axali hesebis mier gamomuSavebuli sabaziso eleqtroenergiis
eqsporti - maisidan agvistomde, wlis ganmavlobaSi importisa da eqsportis
moculobebis dabalansebiT. gaanalizebul periodSi hesebis Warbi generaciis
Semcirebis gamo, importisa da eqsportis moculobebis sruli wliuri
dabalanseba SeuZlebeli xdeba 2019 wlis Semdeg. Sesabamisad, konsultantma
ivarauda, rom 2019 wlidan gaCndeba wminda daubalansebeli importi (299 gvt.sT - 2019 wels, 637 gvt.sT - 2020 wels da 950 gvt.sT -2021 wels).
arsebul TbosadgurebTan SedarebiT importisaTvis prioritetis miniWebis
gamo, gaangariSebis dros aRebulia importis maqsimaluri SesaZlo moculoba,
xolo arsebuli Tbosadgurebis gamoyenebis periodi daenergosistemis
saeqspluatacio xarjebi minimumzea dayvanili mTeli dasagegmi peirodisaTvis.
aseTi midgoma gamarTlebulia imiT, rom igi iTvaliswinebs sxvaobas
Tbogeneraciis Rirebulebasa da importis savaraudo fass Soris.
eleqtroenergiis impori saWiroa mxolod weliwadis “kritikul” periodSi,
zamTris TveebSi, rogorc es warmodgenilia cxrilSi 6.7., sadac dasagegmi
periodis tipiuri wlebis maCveneblebia mocemuli.
cxrili 6.7. tleqtroenergiis importi (gvt.sT)
2009 2012 2013 2015 2018 2021
ianvari 21.9 94.8 14.6 182.3 269.8 364.6 Tebervali 21.9 94.8 14.6 182.3 269.8 364.6 marti 21.9 94.8 14.6 173.1 257.4 347.4aprili 21.9 94.8 1.5 9.2 16.6 24.5maisi 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0ivnisi 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0ivlisi 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0agvisto 21.9 93.1 1.5 7.4 13.7 20.6seqtemberi 21.9 94.8 10.0 14.7 40.0 106.9oqtomberi 21.9 94.8 14.6 182.3 253.1 326.2noemberi 21.9 94.8 14.6 147.9 226.7 311.1dekemberi 21.9 94.8 14.6 182.3 269.8 364.6Asul 196.9 853.0 100.4 1081.6 1617.0 2230.7
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
193
2009 wels saWiro importis
moculobaa 30 mgvt, xolo 2021
wels saWiro simZlavre Seadgens
500 mgvt-s. am analizis dros
navaraudevi iyo, rom
saqarTvelos eleqtrogadamcemi
qselis dagegmili ganviTareba da
mezobel qveynebTan dakavSireba
500 mgvt-s gacvlis saSualebas
uzrunvelyofs.
eleqtrogadamcemi qselis
ganviTarebis Sesaxeb ufro
dawvrilebiTi informacia
mocemulia me-7 TavSi.
alternativa 2-iisaTvis
generaciis axali simZlavreebis
wliuri zrdis gegma
warmodgenilia cxrilSi
6.8. grafikebze 6-5 da 6-6
naCvenebia 2007-2021 wlebisaTvis
gaangariSebuli simZlavre da arsebuli da axali hesebis mosalodneli wliuri
generacia aalternativa 2-isa da sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnilebis
SemTxvevaSi.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Years
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity (M
W)
HppExist TppExist HppNew TPPnew Import Peak Load
alternativa 2-is da sabaziso saprognozo
moTxovnilebis analizis dros konsultantis mier
gamovlenili ZiriTadi faqtebia:
2021 wlisaTvis saqarTvelos energosistemas
dasWirdeba 1208 mgvt generaciis axali
simZlavreebi;vinaidan Tbosadgurebis mSenebloba daSvebuli ar
iyo, 2021 wlamde aSendeba mxolod
hidrosadgurebi;
2009 wlisaTvis importi Seadgens 30 mgvt da
197 gvt.sT, xolo 2021 wlisaTvis 500 mgvt da
2231 gvt.sT;2007-2021 wlebSi mSeneblobis, eqspluataciis da
miuwodebeli energiis wminda mimdinare
Rirebuleba iqneba 1,733 milioni aSS$; damas Semdeg, ras saWiro importis moculoba
daifareba eleqtroenergiis gacvlis gziT, hesebis
Warbi generaciis importidan miRebuli SesaZlo
mogeba (PREV) Seadgens 163 milion aSS dolars.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
194
grafiki 6-5: alternativa 2 da sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba
- dadgmuli simZlavre da wliuri pikuri datvirTvebi
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Years
Ener
gy (G
Wh)
HPPexisting TPPexisting HPPnew TPPnew Import Consumption
grafiki 6-6: alternativa 2 da sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba
– mosalodneli generacia da wliuri moxmareba
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
195
cxrili 6.8. generaciis sistemis ganviTarebis gegma sabaziso saprognozo
moTxovnilebisa da “alternativa 2-isaTvis
weli
Ppikuri
datvirTva
(mgvt)
axali simZlavre
sistemis
saimedoba
(LOLP)
importi
(mgvt/gvt.
sT)
2007 1591 0.156
2008 1640 0.191
2009 1690 0.127 30/197
2010 1741 0.196 60/394
2011 1795 0.234 90/5912012 1850 0.219 130/853
2013 1906 HPxudonhesi (638 mgvt)
faravanhesi (120 mgvt)
tviSihesi (100 mgvt)
0.203 20/100
2014 1965 namaxvanhesi (250 mgvt) 0.115 20/92
2015 2025 HPP JoneTi (100 mgvt) 0.234 250/1082
2016 2087 0.222 290/1253
2017 2151 0.231 330/1425
2018 2209 0.232 370/16172019 2268 0.266 410/18102020 2330 0.205 460/20332021 2392 0.254 500/2231
sul 1,208 mgvt
alternativa 3 (mxolod gazi)
mxolod Tbosadgurebis mSeneblobis Sedegebis da am midgomis ekonomikuri
dasabuTebis gamosakvlevad konsultantma Caatara alternativa 3-is analizi
Semdegi daSvebebis safuZvelze:
importi daSvebulia 2010 wlamde, e.i. mxolod im periodSi romlis
drosac generaciis axali obieqtebis aSeneba SeuZlebelia;
importirebuli eleqtroenergiis moculobis minimumamde dayvanis mizniT
prioriteti eniWeba arsebul Tbosadgurebs, miuxedavad imisa, Tu ra
Tanafardoba arsebobs Tbosadgurebis tarifsa da importis tarifs
Soris;
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
196
gazis sawvavze momuSave pirveli Tbosadguri eqspluataciaSi Sedis 2011
wlidan;
axali hesebis mSenebloba gaTvaliswinebuli ar aris
alternativa 3-isa da
sabaziso saprognozo
moTxovnilebis
SemTxvevaSi
generaciis axali
simZlavreebis
wliuri zrdis gegma
warmodgenilia
cxrilSi 6.9.
arsebuli da axali
hidro da
Tbisadgurebis
gaangariSebuli
simZlavre da
mosalodneli
wliuri generacia
2007-2021 ww.
alternativa 3-isa da
sabaziso saprognozo
moTxovnilebis
SemTxvevaSi
mocemulia grafikebze
6-7 da 6-8.
alternativa 3-is da sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnilebis
analizis dros konsultantis mier gamovlenili ZiriTadi
faqtebia:
2021 wlisaTvis saqarTvelos energosistemas
dasWirdeba 864 mgvt generaciis axali
simZlavreebi;2021 wlamde saWiro iqneba 864 mgvt
Tbosadgurebis mSenebloba, radganac hesebis
mSenebloba daSvebuli ar iyo;2009 wlisaTvis importi Seadgens 30 mgvt da
4gvt.sT, xolo 2010 wlisaTvis 60 mgvt da 12 gvt.sT;2007-2021 wlebSi mSeneblobis, eqspluataciis
da miuwodebeli energiis wminda mimdinare
Rirebuleba iqneba 2,156 milioni aSS dolari; da
mas Semdeg, ras saWiro importis moculoba
daifareba eleqtroenergiis gacvlis gziT,
hesebis Warbi generaciis importidan miRebuli
SesaZlo mogeba (PREV) Seadgens 173 milion
aSS dolars
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
197
cxrili 6.9. generaciis sistemis ganviTarebis gegma sabaziso saprognozo
moTxovnilebisa da alternativa 3-isaTvis
weli
Ppikuri
datvirTva
(mgvt)
axali simZlavre
sistemis
saimedoba
(LOLP)
importi
(mgvt/gvt.
sT)
2007 1591 0.156
2008 1640 0.191
2009 1690 0.127 30/4
2010 1741 0.196 60/12
2011 1795 kombinirebuli ciklis
gazoturbina (CCGT) 144 mgvt 0.004
2012 1850 0.160
2013 1906 kombinirebuli ciklis
gazoturbina 144 mgvt0.004
2014 1965 0.005
2015 2025 kombinirebuli ciklis
gazoturbina 144 mgvt x 2 0.004
2016 2087 0.005
2017 2151 kombinirebuli ciklis
gazoturbina 144 mgvt0.004
2018 2209 0.004
2019 2268 0.005
2020 2330 0.255
2021 2392 kombinirebuli ciklis
gazoturbina 144 mgvt0.004
Total 864 mgvt
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
198
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Years
Inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (M
W)
HppExist TppExist TPPnew Import Peak Load
grafiki 6-7: alternativa 3 da sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba
- dadgmuli simZlavre da wliuri pikuri datvirTvebi
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Years
Ener
gy (G
Wh)
HPPexisting TPPexisting TPPnew Import Consumption
grafiki 6-8: alternativa 3 da sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba
– mosalodneli generacia da wliuri moxmareba
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
199
mTliani dasagegmi periodis manZilze, anu 2007 wlidan 2021 wlamde
periodSi, sabaziso saprognozo datvirTvis pirobebSi, aalternativa 2 da
alternativa 3-is SemTxvevaSi, diskontirebuli investicia da saoperacio
xarjebi Sesabamisad Seadgens 2,156 milion aSS dolars da 1,733 milion aSS
dolars. aalternativa 2 da aalternativa 3-is SemTxvevaSi sxvaoba wminda
mimdinare Rirebulebas Soris aris daaxloebiT 423 milioni aSS dolaris
doneze, rac alternativa 2–Si mocemuli gegmis upiratesobaze mouTiTebs,
romelic mxolod hesebis mSeneblobas da eleqtroenergiis imports
iTvaliswinebs, alternativa 3-Tan SedarebiT, romlis drosac hesebis
mSenebloba da eleqtroenergiis importi ar xorcieldeba.
garda amisa, konsultantma gamoiangariSa “nulovani zaraliT” eleqtroenergiis
importis fasi, romlis SemTxvevaSic alternativa-2-s igive wminda mimdinare
Rirebuleba eqneba rac alternativa 3-s, Tu eleqtroenergiis gacvlis
praqtikas gamovricxavT da vivaraudebT, rom orive alternativis SemTxvevaSi
adgili aqvs sufTa imports, xolo arsebuli da axali hesebis Warbi generacia
ikargeba. “nulovani zaraliT” eleqtroenergiis importis fasia 82 aSS
dolari/mgvt.sT. es niSnavs, rom Tu importirebuli eleqtroenergiis fasi 82
aSS dolari/mgvt.sT-ze ufro maRalia, mxolod gazis sawvavze momuSave
blokebis mSenebloba ekonomikurad ufro gamarTlebulia sxva alternatiul
variantTan SedarebiT, romelic yvela gaanalizebuli hesis mSeneblobas da
eleqtroenergiis imports gulisxmobs. miuxedavad amisa, didi moculobiT
eleqtroenergiis importis alternativasac Tavisi ara-ekonomikuri
naklovanebebi aqvs, rac gaanalizebuli iyo mraval-kriteriumiani Sefasebis
dros.
alternativa 3-isa da ssabaziso scenarisaTvis miRebuli Sedegebis Sedarebis
safuZvelze SeiZleba davaskvnaT, rom mxolod gazis sawvavze momuSave
Tbosadgurebis mSenebloba kargi arCevani ar aris saqarTvelos energosistemis
momavali ganviTarebis TvalsazrisiT. sinamdvileSi, sabaziso scenaris mixedviT
faravanhesis, namaxvanis kaskadis da xudonhesis mSeneblobis SemTxvevaSi, 2021
wlamde periodSi diskontirebuli investiciebis, saeqspluatacio xarjebis da
ENS xarjebis danazogi Seadgens 47 mil aSS dolars, rasac Tan erTvis
eqsportidan 72 milioni aSS dolaris Semosavlebis miRebis potenciuri
SesaZlebloba. sabaziso scenaris sufTa ekonomikuri upiratesobebis
miuxedavad, alternativa 3-s aqvs garkveuli ekologiuri da socialuri
upiratesobebi, rac gaanalizebuli iyo mraval-kriteriumiani Sefasebis dros
da warmodgenilia me-8 TavSi.
msgavsi Sedareba gakeTda ssabaziso scenarsa da aalternativa 2-s Sorisac.
gaangariSebuli iyo “nulovani zaraliT” eleqtroenergiis importis fasi,
romlis SemTxvevaSic alternativa-2-s igive wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba eqneba
rac “sabaziso scenars”, im varaudiT, rom orive alternativis SemTxvevaSi
adgili aqvs sufTa imports, xolo arsebuli da axali hesebis Warbi generacia
ikargeba. am SemTxvevaSi “nulovani zaraliT” eleqtroenergiis importis fasi
ufro dabalia vidre alternativa 2-isa da alternativa 3-is Sedarebis dros
miRebuli fasi da Seadgens 74 aSS dolars/mgvt.sT. es niSnavs, rom Tu
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
200
importirebuli eleqtroenergiis fasi 74 aSS dolari/mgvt.sT-ze ufro
maRalia, ekonomikurad upiratesoba eniWeba alternativas, romelic
gulisxmobs eleqtroenergiiT 100%-ian TviTmomaragebas da rogorc
Tbosadgurebis, aseve hesebis mSeneblobas, sxva alternativebTan SedarebiT,
romlebic mxolod hesebis mSeneblobas da eleqtroenergiis imports
iTvaliswineben.
sabaziso scenaris, alternativa 2-sa da alternativa 3-is ara-diskontirebuli
samSeneblo xarjebis Sedarebisas (grafikis 6-9 and 6-10) Cans, rom samSeneblo
xarjebis TvalsazrisiT yvelaze ZviradRirebuli varianti (alternativa 2)
amave dros yvelaze iafia sawvavis Rirebulebis TvalsazrisiT, Tumca am
alternativas yvelaze dabali wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba (NPV) aqvs.
Tavistavad cxadia, rom mraval-kriteriumiani Sefasebis dros gaanalizebuli
alternatiuli variantebis Sedareba moxda ara mxolod teqnikuri da
ekonomikuri aspeqtebis gaTvaliswinebiT, aramed ekologiuri da socialuri
Sedegebis TvalsazrisiTac.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Years
Con
stru
ctio
n C
ost (
mill
ion
US$
)
Basecase Alternative 2 Alternative 3
grafiki 6-9: samSeneblo xarjebi sabaziso scenaris, alternativa 2-is da
alternativa 3-isaTvis
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
201
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Years
Fuel
Cos
t (m
illio
n U
S$)
Basecase Alternative 2 Alternative 3
grafiki 6-10: sawvavis xarjebi sabaziso scenaris, alternativa 2-is da
alternativa 3-isaTvis
alternativa 3-is garda gakeTda kidev erTi msgavsi variantis - alternativa
6-is analizi. am variantis mizani iyo naxSiris sawvavze momuSave
Tbosadgurebis dadebiTi da uaryofiTi mxareebis Sefaseba gazis sawvavze
momuSave sadgurebTan SedarebiT. alternativa 6-is analizi Semdegi daSvebebis
safuZvelze Sesrulda:
importi daSvebulia 2010 wlamde, e.i. mxolod im periodSi romlis
drosac naxSiris sawvavze
momuSave Tbosadgurebis
aSeneba SeuZlebelia;
importirebuli
eleqtroenergiis
moculobis minimumamde
dayvanis mizniT prioriteti
eniWeba arsebul
Tbosadgurebs, miuxedavad
imisa, Tu ra Tanafardoba
arsebobs Tbosadgurebis
tarifsa da importis
tarifs Soris;
naxSiris sawvavze momuSave
pirveli Tbosadgurebi
eqspluataciaSi Sedis 2013
wlidan;
alternativa 6-is analizis dros konsultantis
mier gamovlenili ZiriTadi faqtebia:
2021 wlisaTvis saqarTvelos
energosistemas dasWirdeba 824 mgvt
generaciis axali simZlavreebi;2021 wlamde saWiro iqneba 824 mgvt
Tbosadgurebis mSenebloba, radganac
hesebis mSenebloba daSvebuli ar iyo;2009 wlisaTvis importi Seadgens 30
mgvt da 4gvt.sT, xolo 2010
wlisaTvis 60 mgvt da 12 gvt.sT;2007-2021 wlebSi mSeneblobis,
eqspluataciis da miuwodebeli
energiis wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba
iqneba 1,990 milioni aSS dolari; damas Semdeg, ras saWiro importis
moculoba daifareba eleqtroenergiis
gacvlis gziT, hesebis Warbi
generaciis importidan miRebuli
SesaZlo mogeba (PREV) Seadgens 173
milion aSS dolars
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
202
navaraudevia, rom bunebrivi gazis da importirebuli naxSiris (albaT
ukrainidan) miwodebaSi araviTari SezRudvebi ar aris; da
axali hidrosadgurebis mSenebloba gaanalizebuli ar aris.
arsebuli da axali hidro da Tbosadgurebis gaangariSebuli simZlavre da
mosalodneli wliuri generacia 2007-2021 ww. aalternativa 6-isa da sabaziso
saprognozo moTxovnilebis SemTxvevaSi mocemulia grafikebze 6-11 da 6-12.
alternativa 6 da alternativa 3-is Sedegebis SedarebiT SeiZleba davaskvnaT,
rom Tu saqarTvelos energosistemis ganviTarebis gza mxolod Tbosadgurebis
mSeneblobaa, maSin naxSiris sawvavze momuSave eleqtrosadgurebis aSeneba ufro
mizanSewonilia, vidre gazis Tbosadgurebisa. bunebrivia, rom aseTi daskvnis
mTavari mizezia gazis amJamindeli fasi. miuxedavad amisa, saqarTveloSi
naxSiris sawvavze momuSave sadgurebis aSenebas uaryofiTi ekologiuri
Sedegebi moyveba sanapiro zonaSi, Savi zRvis axlos, gansakuTrebiT Tu
gaviTvaliswinebT sadguris adgilmdebareobis SerCevas, nacris gatanas, garemos
damabinZurebel gamonabolqvs. am ekologiuri da socialuri aspeqtebis analizi
gakeTda mraval-kriteriumiani Sefasebis safuZvelze, ramodenime raodenobrivad
gansazRvruli kritetiumze dayrdnobiT, rac me-8 TavSia Camoyalibebuli.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
203
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Years
Inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (M
W)
HppExist TppExist HppNew TPPnew Import Peak Load
grafiki 6-11: alternativa 6 da sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba
- dadgmuli simZlavre da wliuri pikuri datvirTvebi
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Years
Ener
gy (G
Wh)
HPPexisting TPPexisting HPPnew TPPnew Import Consumption
grafiki 6-12: alternativa 6 da sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba
– mosalodneli generacia da wliuri moxmareba
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
204
alternativa 4 da alternativa 5
saqarTvelos energosistemis momavali ganviTarebis gegmebze xudonhesisa da namaxvanis
kaskadis mSeneblobis Sedegebis Sedarebis mizniT, konsultantma aalternativa 4 da
alternativa 5 gaaanaliza Semdeg daSvebebze dayrdnobiT:importi daSvebulia 2010 wlamde, e.i. mxolod im periodSi romlis drosac
generaciis axali obieqtebis aSeneba SeuZlebelia;
importirebuli eleqtroenergiis moculobis minimumamde dayvanis mizniT
prioriteti eniWeba arsebul Tbosadgurebs, miuxedavad imisa, Tu ra
Tanafardoba arsebobs Tbosadgurebis tarifsa da importis tarifs Soris;
gazis sawvavze momuSave pirveli Tbosadguri eqspluataciaSi Sedis 2011
wlidan;
navaraudevia, rom arsebuli sadgurebisaTvis bunebrivi gazis miwodebaSi
araviTari SezRudvebi ar aris;
hidrosadgurebi eqspluataciaSe Sedis 2013wlidan,magram alternativa 4-Si
mxolod xudonhesia, xolo alternative 5-Si mxolod namaxvanis kaskadi.
orive alternativaSi faravanhesi Setanilia 2013 wlidan, sufTa
ekonomikurikriterimebis mixedviT.
arsebuli da axali hidro
da Tbosadgurebis
gaangariSebuli simZlavre
da mosalodneli wliuri
generacia 2007-2021 ww.
alternativa 4-is,
alternativa 5-is dasabaziso saprognozo
moTxovnilebis SemTxvevaSi
mocemulia grafikebze 6-13,
6-14, 6-15 da 6-16.
alternativa 5-is analizis dros konsultantis mier
gamovlenili ZiriTadi faqtebia:2021 wlisaTvis saqarTvelos energosistemas
dasWirdeba 1290 mgvt generaciis axali
simZlavreebi ; 2021 wlamde saWiro iqneba 720 mgvt axali
Tbosadgurebis mSenebloba da 570 mgvt axali
hesebis mSenebloba;2009 wlisaTvis importi Seadgens 30 mgvt da
4gvt.sT, xolo 2010 wlisaTvis 60 mgvt da 12 gvt.sT;2007-2021 wlebSi mSeneblobis, eqspluataciis da
miuwodebeli energiis wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba
iqneba 2,132 milioni aSS dolari; damas Semdeg, ras saWiro importis moculoba
daifareba eleqtroenergiis gacvlis gziT, hesebis
Warbi generaciis importidan miRebuli SesaZlo
mogeba (PREV) Seadgens 244 milion aSS dolars.
alternativa 4-is analizis dros konsultantis mier gamovlenili ZiriTadi faqtebia:
2021 wlisaTvis saqarTvelos energosistemas dasWirdeba 1478 mgvt
generaciis axali simZlavreebi;2021 wlamde saWiro iqneba 720 mgvt Tbosadgurebis mSenebloba da 758 mgvt
hesebis mSenebloba;2009 wlisaTvis importi Seadgens 30 mgvt da 4gvt.sT, xolo 2010
wlisaTvis 60 mgvt da 12 gvt.sT;2007-2021 wlebSi mSeneblobis, eqspluataciis da miuwodebeli energiis
wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba iqneba 2,201 milioni aSS dolari; damas Semdeg, ras saWiro importis moculoba daifareba eleqtroenergiis
gacvlis gziT, hesebis Warbi generaciis importidan miRebuli SesaZlo
mogeba (PREV) Seadgens 259 milion aSS dolars
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
205
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Years
Inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (M
W)
HppExist TppExist HppNew TPPnew Import Peak Load
grafiki 6-13: alternativa 4 da sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba
- dadgmuli simZlavre da wliuri pikuri datvirTvebi
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Years
Ener
gy (G
Wh)
HPPexisting TPPexisting HPPnew TPPnew Import Consumption
grafiki 6-14: alternativa 4 da sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba
– mosalodneli generacia da wliuri moxmareba
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
206
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Years
Inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (M
W)
HppExist TppExist HppNew TPPnew Import Peak Load
grafiki 6-15: alternativa 5 da sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba
- dadgmuli simZlavre da wliuri pikuri datvirTvebi
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Years
Ener
gy (G
Wh)
HPPexisting TPPexisting HPPnew TPPnew Import Consumption
grafiki 6-16: alternativa 5 da sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba
– mosalodneli generacia da wliuri moxmareba
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
207
warmodgenili Sedegebis safuZvelze SeiZleba davaskvnaT, rom namaxvanis
kaskadis mSeneblobas garkveuli upiratesoba aqvs xudonhesTan SedarebiT. es
imiTaa gamowveuli, rom Tumca namaxvanis kaskadis sainvesticio xarjebi (1422
aSS dolari/kvt) ufro maRalia xudonhesis sainvesticio xarjebTan SedarebiT
(946 aSS dolari/kvt), namaxvanis mier warmoebuli 1 kvt.sT energiis
Rirebuleba (40 aSS dolari/mgvt.sT) saSualod ufro dabalia, vidre
xudonhesisa (45 aSS dolari/mgvt.sT). ufro metic, namaxvanis kaskadis
mSenebloba dagegmilia ufro didi periodis manZilze, rac agreTve dadebiTi
faqtoria dafinansebis TvalsazrisiT. garda amisa, namaxvanis kaskadis
generaciis Tviuri ganawileba agreTve ufro xelsayrelia saqarTvelos
energosistemisaTvis vidre xudonhesis generaciis Tviuri ganawileba.
sabaziso scenarisaTvis, agreTve scenarebisaTvis: “alternativa 1 ganaxlebadi
wyaroebi”, alternativa 4 da alternativa 5, mSeneblobisa da sawvavis ara-
diskontirebuli xarjebis Sedareba (grafikebi 6-17 da 6-18) gviCvenebs, rom
samSenemlo xarjebis TvalsazrisiT yvelaze ZviradRirebuli alternatiuli variantia
“alternativa 1 ganaxlebadi wyaroebi”, romelic amave dros yvelaze iafia sawvavis
xarjebis TvalsazrisiT. miuxedavad amisa, am variantis SemTxvevaSi gvaqvs mTliani
samSeneblo, saoperacio, da miuwodebeli generaciis xarjebis yvelaze maRali wminda
mimdinare Rirebuleba 2007-2021 wlebSi.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Years
Con
stru
ctio
n C
ost (
mill
ion
US$
)
Basecase Alternative 1 Renewable Alternative 5 Alternative 4
grafiki 6-17: samSeneblo xarjebi sabaziso scenaris, alternativa 1 ganaxlebadi
wyaroebis, alternativa 4-isa da alternativa 5-is SemTxvevaSi
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
208
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Years
Fuel
Cos
t (m
illio
n U
S$)
Basecase Alternative 1 Renewable Alternative 5 Alternative 4
grafiki 6-18: sawvavis xarjebi sabaziso scenaris, alternativa 1 ganaxlebadi
wyaroebis, alternativa 4-isa da alternativa 5-is SemTxvevaSi
zemoT aRwerili Sedegebis safuZvelze SeiZleba gakeTdes daskvna, rom 2021
wlamde mxolod namaxvanis kaskadis an mxolod xudonhesis mSenebloba, an
ganaxlebadi energiis proeqtebis Sesruleba 2021 wlis qveynis balansis 15%-
is doneze ar iqneba mizanSewonili saqarTvelos energosistemisaTvis da rom
sabaziso scenarSi miTiTebuli TanamimdevrobiT yvela gaanalizebuli hesis
mSenebloba garkveul sargeblobas moutans energosistemas. cxadia, rom
gaanalizebuli alternatiuli variantebis yovelmxrivi analizi, romelic ara
mxolod teqnikur da ekonomikur, aramed ekologiur da socialur aspeqtebsac
moicavs, mraval-kriteriumiani Sefasebis meSveobiT Sesrulda (ix. me-8 Tavi).
am alternatiuli variantebis Sedareba gviCvenebs, rom hidro-sensitiurobis
TvalsazrisiT, alternativa 4-isa da alternativa 5-is SemTxvevaSi axali
simZlavreebis mTliani moculoba mcirdeba 1,478 mgvt-mde da 1,290 mgvt-mde
(1,684 mgvt-sTan SedatebiT). Tumca amave dros mTliani mimdinare Rirebuleba
izrdeba 4.3%-iT da 1.1%–iT, 2.201 miliard aSS dolaramde da 2.132 miliard
aSS dolaramde. Tu vivaraudebT, rom momavalSi saqarTveloSi ganaxlebadi
energiis wyaroebis ganviTarebas didi mxardaWera eqneba, axali simZlavreebis
moculoba Semcirdeba 1,541 mgvt-mde (1,684 mgvt-sTan SedatebiT), magram
mTliani mimdinare Rirebuleba gaizrdeba 5.4%-iT, 2.224 miliard aSS
dolaramde.
ganaxlebadi energiis wyaroebis ganviTareba iwvevs mTliani mimdinare
Rirebulebis zrdas 2.109-dan 2.224 miliard aSS dolaramde, rac aris 5.4%-
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
209
iani zrda, maSin, rodesac axali simZlavreebis mateba mcirdeba 1,684 mgvt-dan
1,541 mgvt-mde.
is alternatiuli varianti, romelic hesebis mSeneblobas ar iTvaliswinebs
(alternativa 3), moiTxovs damatebiT 144 mgvt. gazis sawvavze momuSave eqvsi
blokis mSeneblobas, ris Sedegadac mTliani mimdinare Rirebuleba iqneba
daaxloebiT 2.156 miliardi aSS dolari. gazis agregatebis nacvlad mxolod
naxSirze momuSave Tbosadgurebis mSeneblobis SemTxvevaSi (alternativa 6),
mTliani mimdinare Rirebuleba mcirdeba 8%-iT da Seadgens 1.990 miliard aSS
dollars.
im alternatiul variantSi, romelic imports iTvaliswinebs (alternativa 2),
2021 wlamde periodSi sufTa importi gaizarda 500 mgvt-mde. am
alternativaSi, importisaTvis gakeTebuli sxva mniSvnelovani daSveba is iyo,
rom zafxulSi importi gaicvleba hesebis Warbi generaciis eqsportze. am
alternatiuli variantis mixedviT gaTvaliswinebulia yvela gaanalizebuli
hesis mSenebloba, rac damatebiT 1 209 mgvt axal simZlavres iZleva. amis
Sedegad sufTa mimdinare Rirebuleba iqneba 1.734 miliardi aSS dolari. Tu
vivaraudebT, rom saSualo Sesasyidi fasia 35 aSS dolari/mgvt.sT da saWiro
importis gacvla ar xdeba, sufTa mimdinare Rirebuleba Seadgens 1.900
miliard aSS dollars. nulovani zaralisaTvis saWiro Sesasyidi fasi
romelic alternativa 2-is SemTxvevaSi igive sufTa mimdinare Rirebulebas
gvaZlevs, rac alternative 3-is SemTxvevaSi gvaqvs, udris 78 aSS
dolari/mgvt.sT. es niSnavs, rom Tu importis fasi 78 aSS dolari/mgvt.sT-ze
ufro maRalia, gazis sawvavze momuSave Tbosadgurebis mSenebloba
ekonomikurad ufro momgebiani iqneba, vidre eleqtroenergiis importi.
gazis dabali da maRali fasebis analizisas konsultantma igive daSvebebi
gaakeTa, rac sabaziso scenaris SemTxvevaSi. analizis dros gamoyenebuli iyo
bunebrivi gazis Semdegi savaraudo fasebi25:
gazis dabali fasi : 147 aSS dolari/1000 m3
gazis maRali fasi: 611 aSS dolari/1000 m3
gazis fasis Semcireba ar gamoiwvevs hesebis mSeneblobis gadavadebas, magram
gazis fasebis zrda daaCqarebs hesebis Setanas saqarTvelos energosistemis
ganviTarebis gegmaSi. gazis dabali da maRali fasebis SemTxvevaSi (alternativa
7 da alternativa 8) mTliani wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba cvalebadobs 1.686
miliardi aSS dolaridan 3.965 miliard aSS dolaramde.
6.3. maRali saprognozo moTxovnileba
25gazis dabali da maRali fasebi aRebulia wyarodan:
Development of Power Generation in SEE Update of the Generation Investment Study, World Bank, 2006
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
210
maRali saprognozo moTxovnilebis analizis ZiriTadi mizani iyo Segvefasebina,
Tu ra zemoqmedebas axdens sabaziso scenarisa da alternativa 2-is Sedegebze
2021 wlamde periodSi eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis sxvadasxva done.
sabaziso scenari – maRali saprognozo moTxovnileba (HDF)
am analizis dros gamoyenebul iqna igive daSvebebi rac sabaziso scenarisa da
maRali saprognozo moTxovnilebis SemTxvevaSi:
importi daSvebulia 2010 wlamde, e.i. mxolod im periodSi romlis
drosac generaciis axali obieqtebis aSeneba SeuZlebelia;
importirebuli eleqtroenergiis moculobis minimumamde dayvanis mizniT
prioriteti eniWeba arsebul Tbosadgurebs, miuxedavad imisa, Tu ra
Tanafardoba arsebobs Tbosadgurebis tarifsa da importis tarifs
Soris;
gazis sawvavze momuSave pirveli Tbosadguri eqspluataciaSi Sedis 2011
wlidan;
navaraudevia, rom bunebrivi gazis miwodebaSi araviTari SezRudvebi ar
aris;
SerCeuli hesebi eqspluataciaSi Sedian 2013 wlidan; da
yvela didi hidrosadguri da Tbosadguri gegmaSi Setanili iyo
ekonomikuri kriteriumebis mkacri gaTvaliswinebiT (yvela hesi SeirCa
“Tavisufali” SerCevis gziT).
eleqtroenergiis importis simulireba moxda eleqtroenergiis gacvlis
formiT. navaraudevia rom importi ganxorcieldeba zamTris TveebSi
(seqtembridan aprilamde) xolo arsebuli da axali hesebis generaciis
importi moxdeba mais-agvistoSi da importisa da eqsportis moculobebi wlis
ganmavlobaSi dabalansdeba.
minimaluri danaxarjebiT generaciis sistemis ganviTarebis gegmis SemuSavebisas
miRebulma pirvelma Sedegebma aCvenes, rom arsebuli eleqtrosadgurebiT,
importis damatebis gareSe, maRali saprognozo moTxovnilebis dakmayofileba
SesaZlebelia mxolod 2007 wels. kerZod, sistemis saimedobis gaangariSebuli
done (LOLP) 2007 wels saWiroze dabalia 0.274%–iT da naTelia, rom
sistemis saimedobis saWiro donis dacviT mRali saprognozo moTxovnilebis
dakmayofileba gaanalizebuli periodis dasawyisSi.
2008 wlidan situacia icvleba. minimaluri danaxarjebiT generaciis sistemis
ganviTarebis gegmis SemuSavebisas miRebuli Sedegebi gviCveneben, rom sistemis
2008 wels mRali saprognozo moTxovnilebis dakmayofileba SeuZlebeli xdeba
arsebuli eleqtrosadgurebiT, importis an generaciis axali obieqtebis
damatebis gareSe. hesebis mSeneblobis kandidati proeqtebis Sesaxeb arsebul
informaciaze dayrdnobiT (romelic wina TavebSia Sejamebuli) SeiZleba iTqvas,
rom gazis sawvavze momuSave axali blokebi eqspluataciaSi ver Seva 2011
wlamde, xolo axali hesebis gaSvebas SeiZleba velodoT mxolod 2013 wels.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
211
damatebiTi eleqtroenergiis importi saWiroa mxolod weliwadis “kritikul”
periodSi, zamTris TveebSi. 2008, 2009 da 2010 wlebSi saWiro importi aris
Sesabamisad 3 gvt.sT, 14 gvt.sT da 34 gvt.sT.
alternativa 2 HDF
am analizis dros gamoyenebul iqna igive daSvebebi rac alternativa 2-isa da
maRali saprognozo moTxovnilebis SemTxvevaSi:
importi daSvebulia da xelmisawvdomi mTeli periodis manZilze anu 2021
wlamde;
arsebul Tbosadgurebs prioriteti ar eniWebaT importTan SedarebiT,
Tanafardoba Tbosadgurebis tarifsa da importis tarifs Soris
sruladaa gaTvaliswinebuli;
gazis sawvavze momuSave Tbosadgurebi gaanalizebuli ar aris manam, sanam
importis maqsimaluri SesaZlebloba ar iqneba gamoyenebuli;
navaraudevia, rom arsebuli sadgurebisaTvis bunebrivi gazis miwodebaSi
araviTari SezRudvebi ar aris;
yvela hidrosadguri gegmaSi Setanilia “iZulebiTi” SerCevis gziT, 2013
wlidan, ufro maRali sainvesticio xarjebis mqone alternatiuli
variantebis simulirebisaTvis.
erTaderTi damatebiTi SezRudva, romelic dawesda eleqtroenergiis importTan
mimarTebaSi isaa, rom is ar SeiZleba aRematebides 500 mgvt-s
(eleqtrogadamcemi qselis SezRudulobis gamo). amis gaTvaliswinebiT,
importis simulirebisas misi moculoba gazrdili iyo manam, sanam ar miaRwia
500 mgvt-s, ris Semdegac igi erTsa da imave doneze
SenarCunda. es sawyisi gaangariSebebi
gviCveneben, rom 2016 weli aris
kritikuli weli, rodesac importi
500 mgvt-s aRwevs. amis Semdeg
importi SenarCunebulia 500 mgvt-s
doneze da gaTvaliswinebulia gazis
sawvavze momuSave axali Tbosadgurebis
mSenebloba.
am alternatiuli variantis dros
saqarTvelos energosistemis
moTxovnileba ifareba mezobeli
qveynebidan (albaT TurqeTidan da
somxeTidan) miRebuli importiT, rac
xorcieldeba eleqtroeneriis gacvlis
gziT, agreTve gazis sawvavze momuSave
im axali Tbosadgurebis mier
gamomuSavebuli eleqtroenergiiT,
romlebic 2015 wlis Semdeg aSendeba.
alternativa 2-is da maRali saprognozo
moTxovnilebis analizis dros konsultantis
mier gamovlenili ZiriTadi faqtebia:
2021 wlisaTvis saqarTvelos
energosistemas dasWirdeba 1784 mgvt
generaciis axali simZlavre;
2021 wlamde saWiro iqneba 576 mgvt
axali Tbosadgurebis mSenebloba da 1208 mgvt axali hesebis mSenebloba;2008 wlisaTvis importi Seadgens 20 mgvt
da 123 gvt.sT, xolo 2021 wlisaTvis 500mgvt da 683 gvt.sT;2007-2021 wlebSi mSeneblobis,
eqspluataciis da miuwodebeli energiis
wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba iqneba 2,190 milioni aSS dolari; damas Semdeg, ras saWiro importis moculoba
daifareba eleqtroenergiis gacvlis gziT,
hesebis Warbi generaciis importidan
miRebuli SesaZlo mogeba (PREV) Seadgens
64 milion aSS dolars
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
212
eleqtroenergiis gacvlis simulireba
moxda eleqtroenergiis gacvlis formiT. navaraudevia rom importi
ganxorcieldeba zamTris TveebSi (seqtembridan aprilamde) xolo arsebuli da
axali hesebis generaciis importi moxdeba mais-agvistoSi da importisa da
eqsportis moculobebi wlis ganmavlobaSi dabalansdeba. gaanalizebul
periodSi hesebis Warbi generaciis Semcirebis gamo, importisa da eqsportis
sruli wliuri dabalanseba SeuZlebeli xdeba 2018 wlis Semdeg. amitom
konsultantma am periodisaTvis ivarauda importis garkveuli daubalansebeli
moculoba (240 gvt.sT – 2018 w., 190 gvt.sT – 2019w., 176 gvt.sT – 2020w.
da 217 gvt.sT – 2021 w.).
garda amisa, konsultantma gamoiangariSa “nulovani zaraliT” eleqtroenergiis
importis fasi, romlis SemTxvevaSic alternativa-2-s igive wminda mimdinare
Rirebuleba eqneba rac sabaziso scenarSi, Tu eleqtroenergiis gacvlis
praqtikas gamovricxavT da vivaraudebT, rom orive alternativis SemTxvevaSi
adgili aqvs sufTa imports, xolo arsebuli da axali hesebis Warbi generacia
orive SemTxvevaSi ikargeba. nulovani zaraliT” eleqtroenergiis importis
fasia 93 aSS dolari/mgvt.sT. es niSnavs, rom Tu importirebuli
eleqtroenergiis fasi 93 aSS dolari/mgvt.sT-ze ufro maRalia, mxolod
gazis sawvavze momuSave blokebis mSenebloba ekonomikurad ufro
gamarTlebulia sxva alternatiul variantTan SedarebiT, romelic yvela
gaanalizebuli hesis mSeneblobas da eleqtroenergiis imports gulisxmobs.
miuxedavad amisa, didi moculobiT eleqtroenergiis importis alternativasac
Tavisi ara-ekonomikuri naklovanebebi aqvs, rac gaanalizebuli iyo mraval-
kriteriumiani Sefasebis dros.
Sedegebma agreTve aCvena, rom eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis ufro swrafi
zrda daaCqarebs xudonhesis proeqtis Setanas saqarTvelos energosistemis
ganviTarebis gegmaSi. eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis ufro swrafi zrdiT
gamowveuli Sedegi Zalian hgavs gazis maRali fasebiT gamowveul Sedegs da
saqarTvelos energosistemaSi hesebis amoqmedebas aCqarebs. maRali saprognozo
moTxovnilebisaTvis Sesrulebuli analizis Sedegebi mocemulia cxrilSi 6.10.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
213
cxrili 6.10. maRali saprognozo moTxovnilebisaTvis gaanalizebuli
alternatiuli variantebis Sejameba da Sedareba
alternativebi
NPV (mil. aSS
dolari)
INVCOS (mil. aSS
dolari)
OPCOST(mil. aSS
dolari)
PREV(mil. aSS
dolari)
eleqtrosadgurebis
gaSveba2)
sabaziso
scenari,
SezRuduli
importi
2748 733 2015 212
CC: 2011, 2011,2014,2015, 2016,2018,2019,2020K : 2015 T/N/Z : 2013/2013/ P : 2013
alternativa
2,
importis
scenari
2190 589 1601 64
CC:2016,2017,2020,2021K : 2013 T/N/Z : 2013/2014/2015 P : 2013
1) CC- gazis sawvavze momuSave kombinirebuli ciklis 144 mgvt-iani bloki.
K – xudonhesi T/N/Z – tviSi hesi/ namaxvanhesi/JonetiP – faravanhesi
6.4. dabali saprognozo moTxovnileba
dabali saprognozo moTxovnilebis analizis ZiriTadi mizani iyo Segvefasebina,
Tu ra zemoqmedebas axdens sabaziso scenarisa da alternativa 2-is Sedegebze
2021 wlamde periodSi eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis sxvadasxva done.
sabaziso scenari – dabali saprognozo moTxovnileba (LDF)
am analizis dros gamoyenebul iqna igive daSvebebi rac sabaziso scenarisa da
dabali saprognozo moTxovnilebis SemTxvevaSi:
importi daSvebulia 2010 wlamde, e.i. mxolod im periodSi romlis
drosac generaciis axali obieqtebis aSeneba SeuZlebelia;
importirebuli eleqtroenergiis moculobis minimumamde dayvanis mizniT
prioriteti eniWeba arsebul Tbosadgurebs, miuxedavad imisa, Tu ra
Tanafardoba arsebobs Tbosadgurebis tarifsa da importis tarifs
Soris;
gazis sawvavze momuSave pirveli Tbosadguri eqspluataciaSi Sedis 2011
wlidan;
navaraudevia, rom bunebrivi gazis miwodebaSi araviTari SezRudvebi ar
aris;
SerCeuli hesebi eqspluataciaSi Sedis 2013 wlidan; da
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
214
yvela didi hidrosadguri da Tbosadguri gegmaSi Setanili iyo
ekonomikuri kriteriumebis mkacri gaTvaliswinebiT (yvela hesi SerCeul
iqna “Tavisufali” SerCevis gziT).
alternativa 2 - dabali saprognozo moTxovnileba (LDF)
am analizis dros gamoyenebul
iqna igive daSvebebi rac
alternativa 2-isa da dabali
saprognozo moTxovnilebis
SemTxvevaSi:
importi daSvebulia da
xelmisawvdomi mTeli
periodis manZilze anu 2021
wlamde;
arsebul Tbosadgurebs
prioriteti ar eniWebaT
importTan SedarebiT,
Tanafardoba Tbosadgurebis
tarifsa da importis
tarifs Soris sruladaa gaTvaliswinebuli;gazis sawvavze momuSave Tbosadgurebi gaanalizebuli ar aris;
navaraudevia, rom arsebuli sadgurebisaTvis bunebrivi gazis miwodebaSi
araviTari SezRudvebi ar aris;
yvela hidrosadguri gegmaSi Setanilia “iZulebiTi” SerCevis gziT, 2013
wlidan, ufro maRali sainvesticio xarjebis mqone alternatiuli
variantebis simulirebisaTvis.
sabaziso scenaris da dabali saprognozo moTxovnilebis analizis dros
konsultantis mier gamovlenili ZiriTadi faqtebia:
2021 wlisaTvis saqarTvelos energosistemas dasWirdeba 1046 mgvt generaciis
axali simZlavre; 576 mgvt axali Tbosadgurebis mSenebloba da 470 mgvt axali hesebis mSenebloba ;
optimaluri ganviTarebis gegmaSi xudonhesi Setanili ar aris;2009 wlisaTvis importi Seadgens 20 mgvt da 3 gvt.sT, xolo 2010 wlisaTvis 40 mgvt da 7 gvt.sT;2007-2021 wlebSi mSeneblobis, eqspluataciis da miuwodebeli energiis wminda
mimdinare Rirebuleba iqneba 1,959 milioni aSS dolari; dahesebis Warbi generaciis importidan miRebuli SesaZlo mogeba (PREV)Seadgens 199 milion aSS dolars.
alternativa 2-is da dabali saprognozo
moTxovnilebis analizis dros konsultantis mier
gamovlenili ZiriTadi faqtebia:2021 wlisaTvis saqarTvelos energosistemas
dasWirdeba 1208 mgvt generaciis axali
simZlavre;2021 wlamde saWiro iqneba mxolod axali
hesebis gaSveba;2009 wlisaTvis importi Seadgens 20 mgvt da
131 gvt.sT, xolo 2021 wlisaTvis 400 mgvt da
1753 gvt.sT;
2007-2021 wlebSi mSeneblobis, eqspluataciis
da miuwodebeli energiis wminda mimdinare
Rirebuleba iqneba 1,696 milioni aSS dolari;hesebis Warbi generaciis importidan
miRebuli SesaZlo mogeba (PREV) Seadgens
213 milion aSS dolars.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
215
am alternatiuli variantis mixedviT, mTeli dasagegmi periodis manZilze
saqarTveloSi eleqtroenergiaze arsebuli moTxovnileba unda Seivsos
mezobeli qveynebidan (albaT TurqeTidan an somxeTidan) da daifaros
eleqtroenergiis gacvlis gziT. am gacvlis simuliteba moxda Semdegnairad:
sabaziso eleqtroenergiis importi moxdeba zamTris TveebSi (seqtemberi –
aprili) da arsebuli da axali hesebis mier gamomuSavebuli sabaziso
eleqtroenergiis eqsporti - maisidan agvistomde, wlis ganmavlobaSi
importisa da eqsportis moculobebis dabalansebiT. gaanalizebuli periodis
ganmavlobaSi hesebis Warbi generaciis Semcirebis gamo, importisa da
eqsportis moculobebis yovelwliuri sruli dabalanseba SeuZlebeli xdeba
mxolod 2021 wlis Semdeg. Sesabamisad, konsultantma ivarauda, rom 2021
wlidan gaCndeba wminda daubalansebeli importi (206 gvt.sT 2021 wels).
dabali saprognozo moTxovnilebis SemTxvevaSi eleqtroenergiaze
moTxovnileba izrdeba saSualod 2.5%-iT da Sedegebma aCvena, rom
eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis ufro neli zrda gadaavadebs didi
hidrosadgurebis (mag.: xudonhesis) proeqtebis Setanas saqarTvelos
energosistemis ganviTarebis gegmaSi. eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis kidev
ufro neli zrdis SemTxvevaSic gamarTlebuli iqneba mxolod gazis sawvavze
momuSave Tbosadgurebis mSenebloba. dabali saprognozo moTxovnilebisaTvis
Sesrulebuli analizis Sedegebi mocemulia cxrilSi 6.11.
cxrili 6.11. dabali saprognozo moTxovnilebisaTvis gaanalizebuli
alternatiuli variantebis Sejameba da Sedareba
alternativebi
NPV(mil. aSS
dolari)
INVCOS (mil. aSS
dolari)
OPCOST(mil. aSS
dolari)
PREV (mil. aSS
dolari)
eleqtrosadgurebis
gaSveba3)
sabaziso
scenari,
SezRuduli
importi
1959 306 1653 199
CC: 2011, 2015,2015,2019 K : T/N/Z : 2017/2017/ P : 2013
alternativa
2,
importis
scenari
1696 492 1204 213
CC: K : 2013 T/N/Z : 2014/2014/2015 P : 2013
2) CC- gazis sawvavze momuSave kombinirebuli ciklis 144 mgvt-iani bloki.
K – xudonhesi T/N/Z – tviSi hesi/ namaxvanhesi/JonetiP – faravanhesi
am analizis Sedegebi Sejamebulia cxrilebSi 6.12 da 6.13, agreTve agrafikebze
6-19 da 6-20.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
216
NPV-s garda (mSeneblobis, eqspluataciis da ENS xarjebis mTliani wminda
mimdinare Rirebuleba), cxrili 6.12 Seicavs Semdeg monacemebs:
INVCOST – yvela samSeneblo xarjebis diskontirebuli Rirebuleba,
salikvidacio Rirebulebis CaTvliT;
OPCOST – yvela saoperacio xarjebis da miuwodebeli energies (ENS) diskontirebuli Rirebuleba
PREV - hesebis Warbi generaciis eqsportis Sedegad misaRebi
potenciuri Semosavali, mas Semdeg rac srulad daifareba
importirebul eleqtroenergiaSi gasacvleli moculoba da
rodesac eleqtroenergiis fasia 35 aSS dolari/mgvt.sT.
TOT – mTliani diskontirebuli Rirebuleba, eqsportidan misaRebi
potenciuri Semisavlis CaTvliT (NPV-PREV)
cxrili 6.12. gaanalizebuli alternativebis Sejameba
scenarebi
damatebiT
i
generaciis
simZlavre
(mgvt)
( 2021)
eleqtroene
rgiis
mTliani
eqsporti26
(gvt.sT)
NPV (milioni
$)27
investici
a
(milioni
$)
saoperaci
o
xarjebi
(milioni
$)
eqsporti
s
Semosaval
i
(milioni
$)
mTliani
NPV (milioni
$)28
SerCeuli
sadgurebis
gaSveba29
sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnileba (saSualo wliuri zrda – 3%)sabazis
o
scenari
SezRudul
i importi
1684 13441 2109 436 1673 245 1864
CC: 2011, 2015,2015, 2017, K : 2020 T/N/Z :2013/2014/ P : 2013
altern
ativa 1
gnaxlebadi
wyaroebi
1541 15799 2224 582 1642 274 1950
CC: 2011, 2015,2015, 2020, Renewables: 2011-2020 T/N : 2017/2018/ P : 2013
altern
ativa 2 importi 1208 7245 1734 501 1233 163 1571
CC: K : 2013 T/N/Z :2013/2014/2015 P : 2013
altern
ativa 3 mxolod
gazi 864 10809 2156 261 1895 173 1983
CC: 2011,2013,2015,2015,2017,2021 K : T/N/Z : / / P :
altern
ativa 4 mxolod
xudonhesi
1478 13951 2201 492 1709 259 1942
CC: 2011,2015,2015,2017,2020 K : 2013 T/N/Z : / /
26 Net power export- Excess of the generation from HPPs that can be exported in the whole period 2007-2021 27 NPV of costs28 NPV of costs minus NPV of power export value29 CC- Combined cycle gas fired unit 150 MW; K – HPP Khudoni; T/N/Z – HPP Tvishi/ HPP Namakhvani/HPP Zhoneti; P – HPP Paravani; COAL – Coal fired unit 300 MW
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
217
scenarebi
damatebiT
i
generaciis
simZlavre
(mgvt)
( 2021)
eleqtroene
rgiis
mTliani
eqsporti26
(gvt.sT)
NPV (milioni
$)27
investici
a
(milioni
$)
saoperaci
o
xarjebi
(milioni
$)
eqsporti
s
Semosaval
i
(milioni
$)
mTliani
NPV (milioni
$)28
SerCeuli
sadgurebis
gaSveba29
P : 2013
altern
ativa 5 mxolod
namaxvanis
kaskadi
1290 13064 2132 458 1674 244 1888
CC: 2011,2015,2015,2017,2020 K : T/N/Z :2013/2014/2015 P : 2013
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
218
scenarebi
damatebiT
i
generaciis
simZlavre
(mgvt)
( 2021)
eleqtroene
rgiis
mTliani
eqsporti26
(gvt.sT)
NPV (milioni
$)27
investici
a
(milioni
$)
saoperaci
o
xarjebi
(milioni
$)
eqsporti
s
Semosaval
i
(milioni
$)
mTliani
NPV (milioni
$)28
SerCeuli
sadgurebis
gaSveba29
altern
ativa 6
mxolod
naxSiri
824 7848 1990 376 1614 173 1817
COAL: 2013,2015,2017 K : T/N/Z : / / P :
altern
ativa 7
gazis
maRali
fasi
(611 aSS
dolari/10
00m3)
1784 18808 3965 653 3312 328 3637
CC: 2011,2015,2016,2019 K : 2013 T/N/Z :2013/2013/2020 P : 2013
altern
ativa 8
gazis
dabali
fasi
(147 aSS
dolari/10
00m3)
1684 13441 1686 436 1250 245 1441
CC: 2011,2015,2015,2017 K : 2020 T/N/Z :2013/2014/ P : 2013
maRali saprognozo moTxovnileba (saSualo wliuri zrda – 5%)
sabazis
o
scenari
HDFSezRudul
i importi
2260 11107 2748 733 2015 212 2536
CC: 2011,2011,2014,2015, 2016,2018,2019,2020 K : 2015 T/N/Z :2013/2013/ P : 2013
altern
ativa 2,HDFimporti
1784 2423 2190 589 1601 64 2126
CC: 2016,2017,2020,2021 K : 2013 T/N/Z :2013/2014/2015 P : 2013
dabali saprognozo moTxovnileba (saSualo wliuri zrda – 2.5%)
sabazis
o
scenari
LDFSezRudul
i importi
1046 9890 1959 306 1653 199 1760
CC: 2011,2015,2015,2019 K : T/N/Z :2017/2017/ P : 2013
altern
ativa 2,LDFimporti
1208 10682 1696 492 1204 213 1483
CC: K : 2013 T/N/Z :2014/2014/2015 P : 2013
Geo
rgia
:St
rate
gic
Envi
ronm
enta
l Ass
essm
ent
of P
ower
Sec
tor D
evel
opm
ent
Fin
al R
epor
t
219
cxrili 6.13.s
abaziso saprognozo moTxovnilebis mixedviT gaanalizebuli alternatiuli variantebis struqtura
CC
GT
144
mgv
txudonhesi
638 mgvt
namaxvanis
kaskadi
450 mgvt
faravanhe
si
120 mgvt
naxSiri-
274 mgvt
ganaxlebadi
wyaroebi
495 mgvt
NPV
(mil. aSS
dolari)
gazi
(mil. m3)
naxSi
ri
(mil. t)
CO
2gamonabolq
vi
(1000 t
)sabaziso
scenari
SezRuduli
importi
2109
97
460
2030
4
al
ternativa
1
gnaxlebadi
wyaroebi
2224
93
340
2267
1
al
ternativa
2 importi
1734
50
880
9630
al
ternativa
3 mxolod gazi
2156
12
358
026
675
al
ternativa
4 mxolod
xudonhesi
2201
10
199
021
396
al
ternativa
5 mxolod
namaxvanis kaskadi
2132
98
290
2049
0
al
ternativa
6
mxolod naxSiri
1990
67
7711
4525
9
SeniSvna: ricxvebi da simboloebi miuTiTeben agregatebis raodenobas generaciis TiToeuli scenarisaTvis
Geo
rgia
:St
rate
gic
Envi
ronm
enta
l Ass
essm
ent
of P
ower
Sec
tor D
evel
opm
ent
Fin
al R
epor
t
220
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
ALTE
RN
ATIV
E 1
ALTE
RN
ATIV
E 1
REN
EW
ABLE
ALTE
RN
ATIV
E 2
ALTE
RN
ATIV
E 3
ALT
ERN
ATIV
E 4
ALTE
RN
ATIV
E 5
ALTE
RN
ATIV
E 6
Inve
stm
ent C
ost
Ope
ratin
g C
ost
grafiki 6-19. sanvesticio da saeqspluatacio xarjebi
grafiki 6-20.Fsawvavis moxmareba da C
O2–is gamoyofa
Gas
+C
oal
0
5000
1000
0
1500
0
2000
0
2500
0
3000
0
3500
0
4000
0
4500
0
5000
0
ALTE
RN
ATI
VE1
ALTE
RN
ATIV
E1
RE
NE
WAB
LEA
LTE
RN
ATI
VE
2AL
TER
NA
TIVE
3A
LTE
RN
ATIV
E4
ALT
ER
NA
TIV
E5
ALTE
RN
ATIV
E6
Gas
Con
sum
ptio
n
CO
2 Em
issi
on
Gas
Con
sum
ptio
nC
O2
Emis
sion
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
221
ekologiuri da socialuri zemoqmedebis gaTvaliswinebis gareSe, minimaluri
danaxarjebiT saqarTvelos energosistemis ganviTarebis gegmis SemuSavebis
dros gakeTda Semdegi daskvnebi:
1. jamSi yvelaze dabali samSeneblo da saeqspluatacio xarjebi (dabali
wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba) aqvs im alternatiul variants, romelic
iTvaliswinebs eleqtroenergiis gacvlas saqarTvelosa da mezobel
qveynebs Soris (aalternativa 2) da xuTive gaanalizebuli
hidrosadguris mSeneblobas uaxloes momavalSi, ise rom maTi gaSveba
moxdes 2013-2015 wlebSi. amave dros es varianti yvelaze
ZviradRirebulia mxolod samSeneblo xarjebis TvalsazrisiT (yvelaze
maRali INVCOST). garda amisa, am alternatiul variants yvelaze
kargi maCvenebeli aqvs mTliani diskontirebuli Rirebulebis
TvalsazrisiT, eqsportis potenciuri Semosavlebis (TOT) CaTvliT.
2. minimaluri danaxarjebiT energosistemis ganviTarebis alternatiuli
varianti, romelic sistemis damoukidebeli muSaobis princips eyrdnoba
(eleqtroenergiis importze ar aris damokidebuli) iTvaliswinebs
mxolod naxSirze momuSave blokebis mSeneblobas (aalternativa 6). am
alternatiuli variantis dros xdeba naxSiris importi, savaraudod
ukrainidan, zRviT, sanapiros maxloblad mdebare Tbosadguramde.
3. minimaluri danaxarjebiT energosistemis ganviTarebis Semdegi
alternatiuli varianti, romelic sistemis damoukidebeli muSaobis
princips eyrdnoba, iTvaliswinebs mxolod gazis sawvavze momuSave
blokebis da didi hesebis mSeneblobas (ssabaziso scenari). am
alternatiuli variantis dros xdeba bunebrivi gazis importi, da es
varianti SeiZleba gamoadges saqarTvelos energosistamas. am
alternatiul variants igive (mesame) pozicia uWiravs mTliani
diskontirebuli Rirebulebis TvalsazrisiT, eqsportis potenciuri
Semosavlebis (TOT) CaTvliT.
4. “nulovani zaraliT” eleqtroenergiis importis gaangariSebuli fasi,
romlis SemTxvevaSic alternativa-2-s igive wminda mimdinare
Rirebuleba eqneba rac “sabaziso scenars”, Seadgens 74 aSS
dolari/mgvt.sT-s. es niSnavs, rom orive alternatiuli variantis
dros eleqtroenergiis gacvla ar xdeba da arsebuli da axali hesebis
Warbi generacia ikargeba. am SemTxvevaSi, Tu importirebuli
eleqtroenergiis fasi 74 aSS dolari/mgvt.sT-ze ufro maRalia,
ekonomikuri upiratesoba eniWeba alternativas, romelic gulisxmobs
eleqtroenergiiT 100%-ian TviTmomaragebas (importis gareSe) da
rogorc Tbosadgurebis, aseve hesebis mSeneblobas, sxva alternativebTan
SedarebiT, romlebic mxolod hesebis mSeneblobas da eleqtroenergiis
imports iTvaliswineben.
5. samSeneblo xarjebi yvelaze dabalia im alternatiul varianTSi,
romelic mxolod gazis sawvavze momuSave blokebis mSeneblobas
iTvaliswinebs (aalternativa 3). es alternatiuli varianti amave dros
yvelaze Zviria mTliani diskontirebuli Rirebulebis TvalsazrisiT,
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
222
eqsportis potenciuri Semosavlebis (TOT) CaTvliT, da TiTqmis
yvelaze Zviria wminda mimdinare Rirebulebis TvalsazrisiT.
6. is alternatiuli variantebi, romlebic mxolod namaxvanis kaskadis
(aalternativa 5) an mxolod xudonhesisa (aalternativa 4) da
faravanhesi gaSvebas iTvaliswinebs 2013 wels, gaanalizebuli iyo
mxolod Sedarebis mizniT. miRebul Sedegebze dayrdnobiT SeiZleba
davaskvnaT, rom namaxvanis kaskads upiratesoba aqvs xudonhesTan
SedarebiT mxolod imis gamo, rom ufro dabali $/kvt.sT investicia
sWirdeba.
7. rogorc mosalodneli iyo, yvelaze Zviri alternatiuli variantia
alternativa 1 – ganaxlebadi wyaroebi, romelic 2021 wlamde 495
mgvt-s iTvaliswinebs. sabaziso scenarTan am alternativis Sedarebis
Sedegad SeiZleba davaskvnaT, rom ganaxlebadi wyaroebis aTvisebis
Sedegad namaxvanis kaskadis mSenebloba mxolod gadaideba da xudonhesis
mSenebloba gamoiricxeba. ganaxlebadi wyaroebis ganviTarebis proeqtebis
yovelwliuri matebis Semcirebisa an gadadebis SemTxvevaSi viRebT igive
gadawyvetas, rasac sabaziso scenaris SemTxvevaSi.
8. faravanhesis mSenebloba Setanili unda iyos saqarTvelos
energosistemis ganviTarebis gegmaSi, radganac TiTqmis yvela
alternatiul variantSi mas pirvel rigSi asaSenebeli hesis statusi
ergo.
9. gazis fasebis Semcireba zemoqmedebas ar axdens optimaluri ganviTarebis
gegmaze, radganac eleqtrosadgurebis gaSveba erTnairad xdeba
alternativa 8-sa da sabaziso scenaris SemTxvevaSi.
10. minimaluri danaxarjebiT sistemis ganviTarebis alternatiul variantSi,
rodesac gazis fasebia gazrdilia (aalternativa 7), hesebi ufro adre
Sedian eqsploataciaSi da Sesabamisad eqportiT miRebuli potenciuri
Semosavali (PREV) yvelaze maRalia.
11. minimaluri danaxarjebiT sistemis ganviTarebis alternatiul variantSi,
rodesac eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnileba ufro nela izrdeba (sabaziso scenari LDF), tviSi hesi daNnamaxvanis mSenebloba gadaido 2017 wlamde,
xudonhesi gamoiricxa, xolo gazze momuSave Tbosadgurebis mSeneblobis
gegma TiTqmis igivea, rac sabaziso scenarSi.
12. minimaluri danaxarjebiT sistemis ganviTarebis alternatiul variantSi,
rodesac eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnileba ufro swrafad izrdeba
(sabaziso scenari HDF), xudonhesis gegmaSi Setana xdeba ufro adre (2015 wels nacvlad 2020-isa, rogorc amas sabaziso scenari moiTxovs).
es mosalodnelicaa, Tu gaviTvaliswinebT rom wliuri pikuri
datvirTvis zrda ufro maRalia, ris gamoc xudonhesi ukeT “moergeba”
datvirTvis mruds. es alternatiuli varianti gulisxmobs gazis
sawvavze momuSave 8 damatebiT bloks 4-is nacvlad, rogorc es
sabaziso scenaris SemTxvevaSi gveqneboda.
13. sistemis ganviTarebis alternatiuli gegma, romelic saqarTvelos
energosistemasa da mezobel eleqtrosistemebs Soris Zalian didi
moculobebiT eleqtroenergiis gacvlas iTvaliswinebs,
eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis SedarebiT swrafi zrdis SemTxvevaSi
(aalternativa 2 HF) agreTve moiTxovs gazis sawvavze momuSave blokebis
rogorc mosalodneli iyo, yvelaze Zviri alternatiuli variantiael e v
wyaroebi, alternativa 1 – ganaxlebadi romelic 2021 wlamde 495
mgvt-s iTvaliswinebs. sabaziso scenarTan am alternativis Sedarebis
Sedegad SeiZleba davaskvnaT, rom ganaxlebadi wyaroebis aTvisebis
Sedegad namaxvanis kaskadis mSenebloba mxolod gadaideba da xudonhesis
mSenebloba gamoiricxeba. ganaxlebadi wyaroebis ganviTarebis proeqtebis
yovelwliuri matebis Semcirebisa an gadadebis SemTxvevaSi viRebT igive
gadawyvetas, rasac sabaziso scenaris SemTxvevaSi.
xudonhesi gamoiricxa,
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
223
mSeneblobas, radganac gadamcemi qselis gamtarunarianoba SezRudulia
da eleqtroenergiis import/eqsporti 500 mgvt-iTaa limitirebuli.
14. yvela gaanalizebuli alternativis safuZvelze SeiZleba davaskvnaT,
rom didi hidrosadgurebis mSeneblobis ganxorcieleba SesaZlebelia
mxolod saqarTvelos energosistemasa da mezobel eleqtrosistemebs
Soris didi moculobebis eleqtroenergiis gacvlis SemTxvevaSi. amave
dros, eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis SedarebiT swrafi zrdis
(sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnilebasTan SedarebiT) SemTxvevaSi an gazis
fasis Semdgomi zrdis SemTxvevaSi, hesebis proeqtebis ufro adreul
ganxorcieleba mniSvnelovan sargebels moutans saqarTvelos
energosistemas.
zemoT moyvanili yvela Sedegi gviCvenebs, rom hidrosadgurebis mSenebloba
SeiZleba iyos saqarTvelos enerosistemis Semdgomi ganviTarebis saukeTeso
gza, romelic minimaluri danaxarjebiT adgilobrivi moTxovnilebis saimedo
dakmayofilebas uzrunvelyofs. Tu mxolod wminda ekonomikur kriteriumebs
gaviTvaliswinebT, eleqtroenergiis moTxovnilebisa da gazis fazebis sabaziso
prognozis safuZvelze SeiZleba iTqvas, rom xudonhesis mSenebloba 2015 wlis
Semdgom periodze unda gadaidos. eleqtroenergiis moTxovnilebisa da gazis
fazebis ufro swrafi zrda Zalian mniSvnelovan zemoqmedebas axdens 2015
wlamde periodSi xudonhesis mSeneblobis mizanSewonilobaze. gamnaxlebadi
wyaroebis aTviseba sistemis ganviTarebis yvelaze ekonomiuri arCevani ar
iqneba, Tumca, ra Tqma unda, is Tavidan agvacilebs an Seamcirebs arsebuli
ekologiuri da socialuri problemebisa da standartebis gauaresebis
safrTxes.
amis garda, uaxloes momavalSi, mniSvnelovani gadawyvetilebebi unda iyos
miRebuli eleqtroenergiis an bunebrivi gazis importis SesaZleblobis
Sesaxeb. ueWvelia, rom regionSi qveynis energosistemis warmatebuli
integracia, misi ekonomikis swrafi ganviTarebis, energosistemis saimedobis da
stabilurobis sawindaria.
ekonomikuri, ekologiuri da socialuri aspeqtebis gaTvaliswinebiT 7
ZiriTadi alternatiuli variantis Sefaseba moxda mraval-kriteriumiani
ranJirebis safuZvelze, romlis drosac mxedbvelobaSi viRebT ara mxolod
alternatiuli variantebis raodenobriv parametrebs, aramed mniSvnelovan
xarisxobriv maxasiaTeblebsac. aseTi analizis Sedegebi warmodgenilia me-8
TavSi.
yvela gaanalizebuli alternativis safuZvelze SeiZleba davaskvnaT,
rom didi hidrosadgurebis mSeneblobis ganxorcieleba SesaZlebelia
mxolod saqarTvelos energosistemasa da mezobel eleqtrosistemebs
Soris didi moculobebis eleqtroenergiis gacvlis SemTxvevaSi. amave
dros, eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis SedarebiT swrafi zrdis
(sabaziso saprognozo moTxovnilebasTan SedarebiT) SemTxvevaSi an gazis
fasis Semdgomi zrdis SemTxvevaSi, hesebis proeqtebis ufro adreul
ganxorcieleba mniSvnelovan sargebels moutans saqarTvelos
energosistemas.
zemoT moyvanili yvela Sedegi gviCvenebs, rom hidrosadgurebis mSenebloba
SeiZleba iyos saqarTvelos enerosistemis Semdgomi ganviTarebis saukeTeso
gza, romelic minimaluri danaxarjebiT adgilobrivi moTxovnilebis saimedo
dakmayofilebas uzrunvelyofs. Tu mxolod wminda ekonomikur kriteriumebs
gaviTvaliswinebT, eleqtroenergiis moTxovnilebisa da gazis fazebis sabaziso
prognozis safuZvelze SeiZleba iTqvas, rom xudonhesis mSenebloba 2015 wlis
Semdgom periodze unda gadaidos. eleqtroenergiis moTxovnilebisa da gazis
fazebis ufro swrafi zrda Zalian mniSvnelovan zemoqmedebas axdens 2015
wlamde periodSi xudonhesis mSeneblobis mizanSewonilobaze. gamnaxlebadi
wyaroebis aTviseba sistemis ganviTarebis yvelaze ekonomiuri arCevani ar
iqneba, Tumca, ra Tqma unda, is Tavidan agvacilebs an Seamcirebs arsebuli
ekologiuri da socialuri problemebisa da standartebis gauaresebis
safrTxes.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
224
7. gadamcemi qselis ganviTarebis gegmebi
saqarTvelos maRali Zabvis eleqtrogadamcemi qselis axlandeli mdgomareoba
da ganviTarebis gegmebis kritikuli mimoxilva gakeTda generaciis sistemis
ganviTarebis gegmebis analizze dayrdnobiT, kavkasiis qveynebis “regionaluri
eleqtrogadamcemi qselis gafarToebis gegmis (RTEP)” safuZvelze.30 es
axlaxans Sesrulebuli kvlevaa, romelic miznad isaxavs sistemebs Soris
damakavSirebeli maRali Zabvis qselis koncefciis SemuSavebas mezobel
energosistemebs Soris eleqtroenergiis moqnili, urTierTxelsayreli
gacvlisaTvis, romelic eleqtromomaragebis saimedobas gaaumjobesebda. kvleva
ZiriTadad koncentrirebuli iyo saqarTvelosa da somxeTSi teqnikurad da
ekonomikurad ganxorcielebad proeqtebze.
saqarTvelos strategiuli adgilmdebareoba saSualebas aZlevs qveyanas
monawileoba miiRos regionaluri energoseqtoris infrastruqturis
ganviTarebis bevr proeqtSi. saqarTvelos energosistemis dakavSireba mezobel
eleqtrosistemebTan sargebels moutans yvela monawile mxares da Zlier
erTian energosistemas Seqmnis.
qveynis Sida eleqtrogadamcemi sistema 500 kv da 220 kv gadamcemi xazebisagan
Sedgeba, romlebsac wina periodSi mniSvnelovani reabilitacia CautardaT,
normalur samuSao mdgomareobaSi mosayvanad.
30 “Note: If this report is read in black and white, please note that planned 400kV lines go south from Ksani, south and east from Hrazdan, and southwest from Akatziche. Other dotted lines are planned 500kV.”
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
225
amave dros, yovelmxrivi analizi Sesrulda saqarTvelos maRali Zabvis
eleqtrogadamcemi qselis Semdgomi ganviTarebis mizniT, mezobel qveynebTan
eleqtroenergiis gacvlis SesaZleblobebi gazrdis TvalsazrisiT.
grafikze 7-1. naCvenebia saqarTvelos energosistemis mezobel
eleqtrosistemebTan kavSiris da qveynis regionebs Soris kavSirebis sqemebi.
am sqemaze Cans, rom saqarTvelos energosistemas ruseTis energosistemasTan
akavSirebs “kavkasionis” 500 kv eleqtrogadamcemi xazi da “salxinos” 220 kv
eleqtrogadamcemi xazi, TurqeTTan – “aWaris” 220 kv eleqtrogadamcemi xazi,
somxeTTan – “alaverdis” 220 kv eleqtrogadamcemi xazi, xolo azerbaijanTan
– “gardabnis” 330 kv. eleqtrogadamcemi xazi.
grafiki 7-1. saqarTvelos energosistemis kavSirebi mezobel
eleqtrosistemebTan da qveynis regionebs Soris
saqarTvelos maRali Zabvis eleqtrogadamcemi qselis ganviTareba
gaTvaliswinebulia or etapad:
pirveli etapi: 500/400 kv. kavSiri saqarTvelosa da somxeTs Soris, minimum
350 mgvt simZlavre (2010 wlamde); da
meore etapi: saqarTvelosa da ruseTis qselebis 500 kv. kavSiri TurqeTis
qselTan “borCxas” 400 kv. qvesadgurTan, simZlavre - 500
mgvt. da saqarTvelos magistraluri eleqtrogadamcemi xazis
“enguri – gardabanis” meore 500 kv. jaWvi (2015 wlamde).
pirveli etapze, axali didi hesebis mSeneblobamde, eleqtrogadamcemi qselis
gaZliereba saqarTvelosa da somxeTs Soris eleqtroenergiis gacvlis
saSualebas iZleva, rac sakmarisi iqneba Tu generaciis ganviTareba sabaziso
scenaris mixedviT ganxorcielda, romelic zamTarSi eleqtroenergiis imports
da zafxulSi eqsports iTvaliswinebs.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
226
saqarTvelosa da somxeTs Soris erTjaWviani 400 kv. gadamcemi xazis
muSaobisa da usafrTxoebis #1 kriteriumis gaTvaliswinebiT, saqarTvelosa da
somxeTs Soris eleqtroenergiis gadacemis simZlavre iqneba 270 mgvt.
SemzRudavi faqtorebia 220 kv. xazebi gardabansa (saqarTvelo) – vanaZors
(somxeTi) Soris. gamtarunarianobis gazrdis saSualebaa 400 kv-iani gadamcemi
xazis mSenebloba raJdansa (somxeTi) da qsans (saqarTvelo) Soris. am
SemTxvevaSi, saqarTvelodan da somxeTSi eleqtroenergiis gadacemis
gamtarunarianoba gaizrdeba 600 mgvt-mde, imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom
daaxloebiT 400 mgvt gadaicema 400 kv qseliT, da 200 mgvt – 220 kv.
qseliT. 400 kv. gadamcemi xazis gamtarunarianobis ukeT gamoyenebisaTvis
rekomendirebulia fazes gadamyvani transformatorebis damontaJeba qsnis
qvesadgurSi. am transformatorebze fazebs Soris kuTxis SecvliT,
gamtarunarianoba SeiZleba gaizardos 850 mgvt.-mde. am SemTxvevaSi simZlavre
SezRudulia fazis Semcvleli transfomatorebis simZlavriT limiti (2x600 megavolt amperi), 250 mgvt-is gadacema SeiZleba 220 kv. qseliT da 600 mgvt.-
s gadacema 400 kv. qseliT.
amis garda, im periodSi vidre axali didi hesebi aSendeba, saWiroa 220/110 kv.
transformatorebis simZlavris gazrda rogorc somxeTis, aseve saqarTvelos
maRali Zabvis qselebSi. qvesadgur “engurze” erTi 500/220 kv.
transformatoris dazianebam SeiZleba gamoiwvios Zabvis vardna 220 kv.-iani
qselis ramodenime salteze, magram igive maxasiaTeblebis mqone kidev erTi
transformatoris damontJeba am problemas gadaWris.
meore etapze SemoTavazebulia wredis
Sekvra axalcixis 500 kv. qvesadgurTan
(axali 500 kv. gadamcemi xazebi enguri-
axalcixe- marneuli- gardabani
daKxudoni-Aaxalcixe). gegmis mixedviT
es samuSaoebi 2015 wels unda
dasruldes, rac mniSvnelovnad gazrdis
kavkasiaSi qveynebs Soris simZlavrisa da
energiis yidva-gayidvis SesaZleblobebs:
TurqeTis bazarze didi
moculobis eleqtroenergiis
eqsportisaTvis maRali
gamtarianobis mqone koridori
iqmneba (momavali UCTE sinqronizaciis zona), maRali
Zabvis mudmivi denis kavSiris meSveobiT “axalcixe (saqarTvelo) –
borCxa (TurqeTi)”.
Cndeba ruseTis energosistemasTan, xolo ufro gviandel stadiaze
Azerbaijanis sistemasTan, eleqtroenergiis gacvlis SesaZlebloba).
azerbaijanidan saqarTveloSi eleqtroenergiis eqsportis SesaZlebloba
SezRudulia gardabnis qvesadgurSi damontaJebuli 330/220 kv.
am kvlevis miznebisaTvis SeiZleba
davaskvnaT, rom saqarTvelosa da mezobeli
energosistemebis damakavSirebeli maRali
Zabvis qselis gaZliereba, romelic
“regionaluri eleqtrogadamcemi qselis
gafarToebis gegmaSia (RTEP)” SemoTavazebuli 2015 wlamde periodisaTvis,
Seesabameba wina TavebSi aRweril generaciis
ganviTarebis gegmebs da sakmarisi iqneba
aRniSnul periodSi saqarTvelos
energosistemis saimedo muSaobisaTvis.
gadamcemi qselis Semdgomi ganviTarebis
analizi unda gakeTdes 2015 wlis semdgomi
periodisaTvis, momavalSi gadamcemi qselis
gaZlierebis saWiroebis Sesafaseblad.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
227
transformatoris simZlavris gamo. saqarTvelosa da azerbaijans Soris 500
kv. gadamcemi xazis “gardabani (saqarTvelo) – azerbaijanis Tbosadguri”
amuSaveba fazrdis eleqtroenergiis gadacemis SesaZleblobebs.
analozma aCvena, rom arsebobs SesaZlebloba, saqarTvelodan iranSi 1300 mgvt.-
s eqsportisaTvis da damatebiT TurqeTSi 600 mgvt.-s eqsportisaTvis
usafrTxoebis #1 kriteriumis gaTvaliswinebiT. am SemTxvevaSi SemzRudav
faqtors warmoadgens somxeTsa da irans Soris eleqtrogadamcemi qselis
gamtarunarianoba.
imisaTvis, rom somxeTidan ruseTSi saqarTvelos gavliT didi moculobebis
eleqtroenergiis eqsporti SesaZlebeli iyos, rekomendirebulia saqarTvelosa
da somxeTs Soris arsebuli kavSiris gaZliereba, risTvisac qsnis qvesadgurSi
500/400 kv. meore transformatori (fazis gadamrTveli) unda damontaJdes.
garda amisa, saWiroa saqarTvelosa da ruseTs Soris kavSiris gaZliereba 500
kv.-iani xaziT “enguri – centralnaia” (meore xazi) an 500 kv.-iani xaziT
“enguri – soWi (ruseTi) – centralnaia”. igive daskvna SeiZleba gakeTdes
ruseTidan TurqeTsa da saqarTveloSi eleqtroenergiis eqsportTan
dakavSirebiT.
es proeqtebi, romlebic saqarTvelos, somxeTsa da irans Soris maRali
simZlavris 500/400 kv. kavSirs gulisxmoben, 2012 wlisaTvis unda
dasruldes, rac gaTvaliswinebulia axlaxans dadebuli sammxrivi
xelSekrulebiT. aRniSnul xelSekrulebaSi gansazRvrulia eleqtroenergiis
gacvlis miznobrivi parametrebi, romlebic ukve miRebulia mxedvelobaSi
gadamcemi mowyobilobis sainJinro proeqtis Sesadgenad da ekonomikuri
sargebelis Sesafaseblad.
am proeqtis sainvesticio xarjebi Semdeg SesaZleblobebs iZleva:
1. urTierTdakavSirebuli muSaoba saqarTvelos (500 kv. qsnis qvesadguri) da
somxeTs (400 kv. razdanis qvesadguri) Soris, minimaluri simZlavre 350
mgvt.; da
2. Sefasebis mixedviT, saqarTvelos qselis magistraluri 500 kv.-iani xazis
gaZlierebis xarjebi Seadgens daaxloebiT 21.3 milion aSS dolars (16 milion
evros) saqarTvelos nawilSi, xolo mTliani investiciebis da
eqspluatacia/teqmomsaxurebis xarjebis wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba,
eqspluataciis 30 wlian periodze gaTvliT, iqneba daaxloebiT 22.6 milioni
aSS dolari (17 milioni evro).
8. alternatiuli scenarebis integrirebuli
kvleva
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
228
am kvlevis ZiriTadi mizania saqarTvelos energoseqtoris strategiuli
integrirebuli kvlevis Catareba, teqnikuri, ekonomikuri da garemosdacviTi
zegavlenebis CaTvliT. am droisaTvis, saqarTvelos mTavroba gansakuTrebiT
dainteresebulia strategiuli integrirebuli kvlevis CatarebiT, raTa naTeli
moefinos wamoyenebuli xudonis mSeneblobis gegmis “wvlils” generaciis
grZelvadiani gafarToebis gegmaSi da Semdeg saxelmwifos resursebis
gamoyenebiT Catardes sruli winaswari kvleva da garemosdacviTi da
socialuri sakiTxebis Seswavla. imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom yovel proeqts
aqvs misi dadebiTi da uaryofiTi atributebi da sxvadasxva atributebis
Sefaseba/daxasiaTeba xSirad subieqturia, Znelia zusti raodenobrivi analizis
Catareba gamarjvebulis calsaxad gamosavlenad. am faqtis gamo
integrirebulma kvlevam unda moicvas momavali ganviTarebis alternativebis
yvela aspeqti, maTi dadebiTi da uaryofiTi mxareebiT da saSualeba misces
politikis gamtareblebs anda gadawyvetilebis mimRebebs SearCion maTTvis
yvelaze misaRebi varianti.
midgomaSi warmodgenili analizi, romliTac Catarebulia integrirebuli
kvleva da romelic moicavs ara maro raodenobriv, aramed xarisxobriv
parametrebs, dafuZnebulia mravalkriteriumian optimizacias da
alternativebis ranJirebas. am kvlevaSi gamoyenebulia mravalkriteriumiani
ranJirebis erTerTi meTodologia - ICOR (iteraciuli kompromisuli
ranJireba). ICOR meTodologiis detaluri aRwera mocemulia danarTSi).
8.1. ganviTarebis alternativebis SerCeva mravalkriteriumiani
ranJirebisaTTvis
mravalkriteriumiani ranJirebisaTvis alternativebis SerCeva tardeboda im
mizniT, rom moecva yvela mniSvnelovani varianti, romlebic SeiZleboda
gamomdgariyo saqarTvelos energosistemis momavali ganviTarebisTvis, keZod:
100%-iani TviT-dakmayofilebadi energo sistemis Camoyalibeba,
eleqtroenergiis importis gareSe;
ganviTarebis varianti, romelic dafuZnebulia eleqtroenergiis didi
moculobiT importze da eqsportisa da gare vaWrobis didi
potencialis arsebobaze;
mxolod Tbosadgurebis mSeneblobaze damyarebuli ganviTareba, romlebic
moixmarnen impotirebul pirvelad sawvavs (gazi an qvanaxSiri);
sargebeli, romelic miiReba mxolod xudonihesis, an mxolod namaxvanis
kaskadis, an orives erTad aSenebisas; da
ganaxlebadi wyaroebis (mcire hesebi da qari) swrafi ganviTareba.
zemoTmoxseniebuli alternativebis SedarebisaTvis mizanSewonil models
warmoadgens alternativebis Sedareba eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis
erTidaigive prognozis SemTxvevaSi, rac imas niSnavs, rom yvela alternativaSi
sabaziso moTxovnaa eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis saimedo dakmayofileba da
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
229
es moTxovnileba yvela alternativisaTvis erTnairia. am garemoebis
gaTvaliswinebiT, Catarda mravalkriteriumiani ranJireba arCeul 7
alternativaze, romelTa struqtura warmodgenilia cxrilSi 8.1, xolo
kandidati proeqtebis adgilmdebareoba mocemulia naxazze 8.1.
cxrili 8.1. arCeuli alternativebi mravalkriteriumiani ranJirebisaTvis
komb.cikl.gaz.
turbina
144 mgvt
xudonhesi
638 mgvt
namaxvanis
kaskadi
450 mgvt
faravani-
hesi
120 mgvt
naxSiri-274 mgvt
ganaxlebadi
495 mgvtsabazo scenari
SezRuduli
importi
alternativa 1
ganaxlebadi
alternativa 2
importi
alternativa 3
mxolod gazi
alternativa 4
mxolod xudoni
alternativa 5
mxolod
namaxvanis kaskadi
alternativa 6
mxolod naxSiri
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
230
naxazi 8-2. kandidati proeqtebi
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
231
8.2. mravalkriteriumiani ranJirebis kriteriumebis ganmarteba
C1: yvela samSeneblo da saoperacio xarjebis wminda dRevandeli Rirebuleba
(NPV)
SesaZlo ganviTarebis alternativebis mravalkriteriumiani ranJirebis erTerT
ZiriTad kriteriums warmoadgens yvela im samSeneblo da saoperacio xarjebis
diskontirebuli Rirebuleba, romlebic saWiroa momavalSi eleqtroenergiaze
moTxovnilebis dasakmayofileblad da saimedo eleqtromomaragebisaTvis. es
aris raodenobrivi kriteriumi da alternativebi, romlebsac ufro patara
NPV gaaCniaT aqvT upiratesoba im alternativebTan SedarebiT romlisTvisac
es kriteriumi ufro maRalia. am kriteriumis mniSvnelobebi mocemulia
cxrilSi 8.2.
cxrili 8.2 NPV kriteriumis mniSvneloba sxvadasxva alternativebisaTvis
NPV alternativa
mil.sabazo 2109
A1r 2224A2 1734A3 2156A4 2201A5 2132A6 1990
C2: saoperacio xarjebis diskontirebuli sidide (OPC)
es warmoadgens sxva raodenobriv kriteriums, romelic iZleva sawvavis,
saeqspluatacio Rirebulebis da miuwodebeli energiis Rirebulebis
diskontirebul mniSvnelobas. saeqspluatacio xarjebi moicavs yvela arsebuli
da axali hidro da Tbosadgurebis saoperacio xarjebs sawvavis fasis da
importirebuli eleqtroenergiis safasuris garda. alternativebs OPC-s SedarebiT dabali mniSvnelobiT upiratesoba gaaCniaT im alternativebTan
SedarebiT, romelTaTvisac es kriteriumi ufro maRalia.
OPC-s mniSvneloba, miuxedavad imisa, rom is Sedis NPV-s sidideSi, mainc
gamoiyeneba rogorc sxva raodenobrivi kriteriumi; imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom
es kriteriumi ZiriTadad asaxavs sawvavis Rirebulebas, romelic
pirdapirproporciulia sawvavis moxmarebisa, am kriteriums unda xazi gaesvas,
rogorc alternatiuli variantebis specifikur maxasiaTebels. am kriteriumis
mniSvnelobebi mocemulia cxrilSi 8.3
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
232
cxrili 8.3. OPC kriteriumebis mniSvnelobebi sxvadasxva alternativebisaTvis
OPC alternativa
mil.
sabazo 1673A1r 1642A2 1233A3 1895A4 1709A5 1674A6 1614
C3: potenciuri Semosavali (PREV)
es raodenobrivi kriteriumi warmoadgens potenciur Semosavals, romelic
SeiZleba realizirebuli iyos hidrosadgurebze warmoebuli Warbi
eleqtroenergiis eqsportiT 2007-2021 wlebSi. igi daTvlilia rogorc
diskontirebuli sidide Semdegi mniSvnelobisa: mTeli potenciurad
eqsportirebuli eleqtroenergiis sidides gamoklebuli im eqsportis odenoba,
romelic saWiroa eleqtroenergiiT vaWrobisaTvis, anu eleqtroenergiis
saWiro importis xarjebis dafarvisaTvis, Semdegi nagulisxmevi fasiT 35
US$/mgvtsT. alternativebi, romlebic moicaven hidrosadgurebis mSeneblobas,
gaaCniT ufro maRali eqsportis potenciali zafxulis periodSi da
damatebiTi Semosavlis realizebis ufro maRali potenciali. am kriteriumis
maqsimizacia mravalkriteriumian ranJirebaSi asaxavs im alternativebis
upiratesobas, romlebic xasiaTdebian hidrosadgurebis maRali wiliT. am
kriteriumis mniSvnelobebis mocemulia cxrilSi 8.4
cxrili 8.4 PREV kriteriumis mniSvnelobebi sxvadasxva alternativebisaTvis
PREV
alternativa mil.
sabazo 245A1r 274A2 163A3 173A4 259A5 243A6 173
C4: CO2 -s gamoyofa (CO2)
raodenobriv kriteriums warmoadgens gamoyifili CO2-s mTliani raodenoba
TiToeuli alternativisaTvis da es kriteriumi gamoyenebul iqna rogorc
garemos yvela damabinZurebeli gamosxivebis amsaxveli kriteriumi; amis
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
233
gakeTeba SesaZlebelia imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom (TiTqmis) yvela
alternatiuli variantis SemTxvevaSi sawvavad gamoiyeneba mxolod bunebrivi
airi da gamoyofili CO2 –s sidideebis erTmaneTis mimarT Sefardeba faqtiurad asaxavs yvela damabinZurebeli gamosxivebis erTmaneTis mimarT Sefardebebs.
erTaderT gansxvavebas warmoadgens alternativa, romelic moicavs qvanaxSirze
momuSave sadgurebs, romlebic damabinZurebeli gamonadenis TvalsazrisiT
mniSvnelivnad uaresni arian gazze momuSave sadgurebTan SedarebiT; es
uaresoba SeiZleba danaxul iqnas CO2-s emisiis gamoTvlili doniT, romelic
am alternativisaTvis daaxloebiT orjer maRalia sxva alternativebTan
SedarebiT,
mravalkriteriumian ranJirebaSi am kriteriumis minimizacia asaxavs im
alternativebis sust mxareebze, romlebSic ufro didi wvlili SeaqvT
Tbosadgurebs. am kriteriumis mniSvnelobebi mocemulia cxeilSi 8.5.
cxrili 8.5 CO2 kkriteriumis mniSvnelobebi sxvadasxva alternativebSi
CO2
alternativa 1000t
sabazo 20304A1r 22671A2 9630A3 26675A4 21396A5 20490A6 45259
C5: eleqtroenergiis importi (IMP)
eleqtroenergiis importis kriteriumi asaxavs energosistemis SesaZleblobas
damoukideblod ganaxorcielos moTxovnili eleqtroienergiis miwodeba da es
kriteriumi asaxavs energosistemis TviT-dakmayofilebis SesaZleblobas
eleqtroenergiis importis saSualebiT. bunebrivia, eleqtroenergiis importis
ararseboba saqarTvlos energosistemis SemTxvevaSi niSnavs mxolod imas, rom
eleqtroenergiis importis nacvlad xdeba pirveladi sawvavis Semotana
(bunebrivi airi, qvanaxSiri, an orive), romelic gamoiyeneba gazze an
qvanaxSirze momuSave sadgurebSi sakmarisi eleqtroenergiis gamosamuSaveblad.
es kriteriumi SeiZleba ganxiluli iyos, rogorc energousafrTxoebis
kriteriumi. saqarTvelos SemTxvevaSi, eleqtroenergiis importze dafuZnebuli
alternativa warmoadgens alternativas damyarebuls didi raodenobiT
eleqtroenergiis gacvlaze saqarTvelosa da mezobel energosistemebs Soris
da es niSnavs Zlier, erTian reJimSi momuSave eleqtroenergiis bazars. am
altenativis ganxorcielebis yvela potencialuri dabrkolebis
gaTvaliswinebiT, es maxasiaTebeli ganxilul iqna rogorc kriteriumi,
romelic asaxavs eleqtroenergiis importis alternativis uaryofiT mxares.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
234
yvela gaanalizirebuli alternativisaTvis gamoTvlili mTliani
importirebuli elqtroenergia erTi da igive sididisaa garda alternativa 2-
isa, romlis SemTxvevaSic is mniSvnelovnad didia. amitomac konsultantma
gamoiyena xarisxobrivi kriteriumi (imis nacvlad, rom ganexila mTliani
importirebuli eleqtroenergia, rogorc raodenobrivi kriteriumi), romelic
asaxavs energosistemis TviT-dakmayofileba eleqtroenergiis importis
TvalsazrisiT.
– IMP=0 – 100% TviT-dakmayofilebadi energo sistema eleqtroenergiis
importis TvalsazrisiT.
– IMP=1 – Zlieri damokidebuleba mezobeli energosistemebidan
importirebul eleqtroenergiaze
alternativebs, romlebic dafuZnebulia 100% TviT-damakmayofilebel
saqarTvelos energosistemaze eleqtroenergiis importis TvalsazrisiT,
upiratesoba gaaCniaT im SemTxvevebTan SedarebiT, romlebic eyrdnoba didi
raodenobiT eleqtroenergiis imports. am kriteriumi mniSvnelobebi moyvanilia
cxrilSi 8.6.
cxarili 8.6. IMP–s mniSvnelobebi sxvadaxva alternativebisaTvis
IMalternativa
-sabazo 0
A1r 0A2 1A3 0A4 0A5 0A6 0
es xuTi kriteriumi raodenobrivi kriteriumia da maTi gavlena
alternativebis saboloo ranJirebaze mkacradaa gansazRvruli. sxva sami
kriteriumi, mocemuli TanmimdevrobiT warmoadgenen xarisxobriv kriteriumebs
da maTi gavlena damokidebulia mniSvnelovani faqtorebis Sefasebaze
konsultantis mier.
C6: EenergousafrTxoeba – energiis warmoebisaTvis sawvavis mowodebis
saimedooba (REL)
is qveynebi, romelTac ar gaaCnoiaT sakuTari wiaRiseuli saTbobi
TbosadgurebSi eleqtroenergiis sawarmoeblad (bunebrivi airi an qvanaxSiri)
garkveuli riskis qveS imyofebian am sabaziso energetikuli saTbobebis
importze energetikuli damokidebulebis gamo. es riski didia, roca
importirebuli sawvavis wili didia. es dafuZnebulia mraval faqtorze: a)
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
235
qvanaxSiris da gansakuTrebiT bunebivi airis fasi mihyveba navTobis fass, rac
iwvevs gaurkvevlobas am sabazo energetikuli sawvavis regularul mowodebaSi.
b) politikuri, ekonomikuri daZabulobis da areulobebis periodebSi
gaurkvevloba sawvavis regularuli mowodebaSi gansakuTrebiT aRsaniSnavia.
saqarTvelos ar gaaCnia sakuTari bunebrivi airi da amgvarad saWiroa misi
importireba. qvanaxSiris resursebi limitirebulia (ix. Tavi 5), xolo misi
mopoveba dReisaTvis arasakmarisad aris ganviTarebuli, imisaTvis, rom
sakmarisi sawvavi miawodos Tboeleqtrosadgurs (arsebobs garkveuli
miniSnebebi, erTi 150mgvt qvanaxSirze momuSave sadguris mSeneblobis Sesaxeb).
am faqtis gamo, nagulisxmevia, rom dagegmilma qvanaxSirze momuSave
sadgurebma, romlebic CarTulia erTerT alternativaSi, unda imuSaon
importirebul qvanaxSirze.
energiis sawarmoeblad sawvavis miwodebis energousafrTxoebasTan da
energosaimedoobasTan (REL) dakavSirebuli kriteriumi moicavs risks da
gaurkvevlobis faqtors ZiriTadi energetikuli sawvavis – bunebrivi airis da
qvanaxSiris – mowodebaSi. REL kriteriumis mniSvnelobebi gansazRvrulia
aTbaliani skaliT 1-dan 10-mde, sadac 1 Seesabameba yvelaze dabal, da 10 –
yvelaze maRal energousafrTxoebas. REL kriteriumis mniSvnelobebi
gamoTvlilia rogorc importirebuli gazis wrfivad proporciuli sidide,
sadac importirebuli gazis maqsimalur sidides (12358 106 m3) Seesabameba
mniSvneloba 1, xolo importireli gazis minimalur sidides (5088 106 m3) –
maqsimaluri mniSvneloba 10. es sidideebi mocemulia cxrilSi 8.7.
aRwerili meTodologiis Tanaxmad, REL kriteriumis minimaluri mniSvneloba
(mniSvneloba 1) mieniWa alternativas A3 (mxolod axali, gazze momuSave
sadgurebi), imitom rom am SemTxvevaSi importirebuli bunebrivi airis
moculoba udidesia. am kriteriumis yvelaze didi mniSvneloba gaaCnia
alaternativas, romelic gulisxmobs yvela dagegmili hidrosadguris
mSeneblobas, Tbosadgurebis gareSe – alternativa A2. es alternativa A2 mainc gulisxmobs bunebrivi airis imports (arsebuli TbosadgurebisaTvis) da amis
gamo am alternativas ar mieniWa REL kriteriumis maqsimaluri mniSvneloba 10,
aramed mieniWa mniSvneloba 8. analogiuria situacia alternativa A6 (axali
naxSirze momuSave Tbosadguri) dros, romelic dafuZnebulia importirebul
gazsa da qvanazSirze. importirebuli gazis moculoba didi ar aris, magram
moiTxoveba qvanaxSiris didi raodenobiT importireba. Sedegad,
energousafrTxoeba dabalia.Pkriteriums A6-sTvis ufro maRali mniSvneloba
gaaCnia, vidre alternativa A3 dros, radganac arsebobs upiratesoba (rogorc fasis fluqtuaciis, aseve mowodebis usafrTxoebis TvalsazrisiT) imis gamo,
rom adgili aqvs ori an meti sawvavis mowodebis wyaros arsebobas erTis
nacvlad.
REL kriteriumis mniSvneloba sxva alternativebisaTvis (A1 – axali gazze
momuSave Tbosadgurebi da yvela dagegmili hidrosadguri, A1r – mcire hesebi, qaris sadgurebi, axali gazze momuSave Tbosadgurebi, namaxvanis kaskadi da
faravanis hesi, A4 – gazze momuSave Tbosadgurebi, xudonhesi da faravanhesi da
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
236
A5 – gazze momuSave Tbosadgurebi, namaxvanis kaskadi da faravnis hesi)
warmoadgenen wrfivi funqciis mniSvnelobebs, rogorc es zemoTaa aRwerili.
cxrili 8.7. REL kriteriumis mniSvnelobebi sxvadasxva alternativebisaTvis
alternativa
importireb
uli gazi
106 m3
importirebu
li naxSiri
106 t
REL
sabazo 9746 0 4.2A1r 9334 0 4.7A2 5088 0 8A3 12358 0 1A4 10199 0 3.7A5 9829 0 4.1A6 6777 11 3
C7: Egaremoze zemoqmedebis kriteriumi (ENV)
es kriteriumi moicavs sxvadasxva eleqtrosadgurebis garemoze zemoqmedebis
faqtorebs. CO2 –s gamoyofa ar Sedis am kriteriumSi, radganac garemoze
zemoqmedebis misi mniSvnelobis gamo, is gansazRvrulia calke kriteriumis
saxiT, romelic aRwerili iyo zemoT.
garemoze zemoqmedebis kriteriumis mniSvnelobebi (ENV) SemuSavda Semdegi
zegavlenebis analizis safuZvelze (gansazRvrulia rogorc qvekriteriumebi):
yoveli es kriteriumi calcalkea gansazRvruli xudonhesis, namaxvanis
kaskadis, faravanhesis, bunebriv airze momuSave Tbosadgurebis, qvanaxSirze
momuSave Tbosadgurebis, ganaxlebadi eleqtrosadgurebis – mini da mcire
hidrodadgurebis da qaris sadgurebis SemTxvevebSi, romelic dafuZnebulia 5-e
TavSi mocemul mimoxilvasa da kvlevaze.
E1 sistemis (rezervuaris da eleqtrosadguris) zegavlenis
qveS myofi farTobi
E2 zegavlena klimatis cvlilebaze
E3 haeris dabinZurebaze zegavlena
E4 hidrologiur reJimebze zegavlena
E5 wylis xarisxze zegavlena
E6 mcenareebze zegavlena
E7 faunaze zegavlena
E8 landSaftze zegavlena
E9 energiis wyaros ganaxlebadoba
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
237
kriteriumis mniSvnelobebi
Sejamebulia sadgurebis yvela
sistemisaTvis (cxrili 8.8 –
midgoma, cxrili 8.18 – zegavlena),
da Semdeg ganviTarebis yoveli
alternativisaTvis, imis
gaTvaliswinebiT Tu ra
eleqtrosadgurebs moicavs
mocemuli alternativa (cxrili
8.19).
cxrili 8.8 TiToeuli eleqtrosadguris garemoze zemoqmedebis
gansazRvrisaTvis gamoyenebuli midgoma
el.sadguris tipi E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 jami
Kxudoni Ke1 Ke2 Ke3 Ke4 Ke5 Ke6 Ke7 Ke8 Ke9 Kenamaxvani Ne1 Ne2 Ne3 Ne4 Ne5 Ne6 Ne7 Ne8 Ne9 Ne
Hhidr
o faravani Pe1 Pe2 Pe3 Pe4 Pe5 Pe6 Pe7 Pe8 Pe9 PeGgazi Ge1 Ge2 Ge3 Ge4 Ge5 Ge6 Ge7 Ge8 Ge9 Ge
qvanaxSiri Ce1 Ce2 Ce3 Ce4 Ce5 Ce6 Ce7 Ce8 Ce9 Cemcire hesebi Me1 Me2 Me3 Me4 Me5 Me6 Me7 Me8 Me9 Me
qari We1 We2 We3 We4 We5 We6 We7 We8 We9 We
E1. sistemis (rezervuari da eleqtrosadguri) zegavlenis qveS myofi farTobi
es qvekriteriumi moicavs im adgilis zomas, romelic dakavebuli aqvs
eleqtrosadgurs da farTobs, romelic imyofeba energosistemis (rezervuari da
eleqtosadguri) pirdapiri zegavlenis qveS. es parametri ganisazRvreba
mocemuli dakavebuli farTis kuTri sidideebiT eleqtrosadguris dadgmul
simZlavresTTan mimarTebaSi (ha/mgvt). sxva kritriumebTan ufro ioli Sedarebis
mizniT, maTi kuTri mniSvnelobebi gadayvanili iqna sidideSi (parametri),
romelic gviSvenebs zegavlenis zomas:
0 - umniSvnelod mcire farTobia zegavlenis qveS
1 - mcire farTobia zegavlenis qveS
2 – mniSvnelovani farTobia zegavlenis qveS
hidrosadgurebisaTvis sistemis zegavlenis qeS myofi farTobi warmoadgens
wylis zedapiris farTobs, wylis normaluri donis dros gadidebuls 20%-iT.
faranvis hesi warmoadgens saderivacio tipis sadgurs, da am sistemas ar aqvs
am qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi
ganisazRrvreba Semdegnairad:
0 – Zlier umniSvnelo zegavlena
1 – mcire zegavlena
2 – mniSvnelovani uaryofiTi zegavlena
mniSvnelobebi uaryofiTia, radgan garemoze
zemoqmedeba uaryofiTia.
mxolod bolo qvekriteriumi E9 – energiis wyaroebis ganaxlebadoba ganisazRvreba
Semdegnairad:
1 – ganaxlebadi energiis wyaroebisaTvis
0 – gazis da naxSiris energiis wyaroebad
gamoyenebisas
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
238
rezervuari; Sesabamisad zegavlenis qveS myofi farTobi Zlier umniSvneloa da
misi ugulebelyofa SeiZleba.
igulisxmeba, rom gazze momuSave Tbosadgurebi aSendeba ukve arsebuli
sadgurebis adgilas (eqspluataciidan gamosuli sadgurebis nacvlad); amgvarad
am sadgurebis mSeneblobis gamo ar warmoiSveba axali zegavlenis qves myofi
adgilebi.
qvanaxSirze momuSave TboleleqtosagurebisaTvis zegavlenis qveS myof farTobs
warmoadgens Tboeleqtosadguris mier dakavebuli farTobi, misi yvela damxmare
nagebobebis CaTvliT (qvanaxSiris sayreli, transportirebis saSualebebi,
mowyobilobebi, romlebic amsxvreven qvanaxSirs, rezervuarebi, Sxefsacivrebi da
sxva). dagegmilia, rom qvanaxSirze momuSave Tbosadguri ganTavsdes zRvis
sanapiro zolSi (importirebuli qvanaxSiris iolad misawodeblad – zRvis
transportiT), sadac unda arsebobdes CamtvirTavi porti damatebiT Senoba-
danadgarebTan erTad, romelic Sedis zegavlenis qveS myof farTSi. amis garda,
sanapiros garkveuli nawili aRar gamodgeba rekreaciuli da turistuli
miznebisaTvis (ix. Tavi 5.1) da es farTobi aseve Sedis zegavlenis qveS myof
arealSi.
mcire da saSualo hidrosadgurebisTvis da qaris sadgurebisaTvis zegavlenis
qveS myofi farTobi pataraa sxva sadgurebTan SedarebiT.
am qvekriteriumis sidideebi mocemuli cxrilSi 8.9.
cxrili 8.9. E1 qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi – sistemis zegavlenis qves myofi
farTobebi
el.sadguris tipi
Azegavlenis qveS
myofi farTobi
(ha)
dadgmuli
simZlavre (mgvt)
kuTri
farTobi
(ha/mgvt)
E1
Kxudoni 480 638 0.75 -1namaxvani 830 450 1.85 -2hidro
faravani - 123 - 0Ggazi 0
qvanaxSiri 500 900 0.6 -1mcire hesebi 0
qari 0
E2. zegavlena klimatis cvlilebaze
sxvadasxva eleqtrosadgurebis zegavlena klimatis cvlilebaze sistemis
axlomdebare teritoriaze detalurad aris aRwerili am reportis wina
TavebSi.
hidroeleqtrosadgurebis SemTxvevaSi klimatis cvlilebaze zegavlena exeba
rezervuars. rezervuarebi dadebiT zegavlenas axdenen temperaturaze (rogorc
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
239
aRwerilia TavSi 5.2). Tumca arsebobs garkveuli uaryofiTi zegavlenebic
(nislis warmoSoba da ufro intensiuri qarebi), magram es exeba SezRudul
farTobs rezervuaris maxloblad. es aris mTavari mizezi, ris gamoc
xudonhesis da namaxvanis kaskadis sistemebis zegavlena klimatis cvlilebaze
Zlier umniSvneloa da ugulebelsayofia. faravnis hesi saderivacio tipis
sadguria da aseT sadgurebs rezervuarebi ar gaaCniaT, Sesabamisad klimatze
zegavlenas ver axdenen.
gazze momuSave Tbosadgurebis klimatis cvlilebaze zegavlena mcirea (ufro
didia vidre hesebisTvis, magram ufro mcirea qvanaxSirze momuSave
TbosadgureTan SedarebiT). am zegavlenis simcire aris imis Sedegi, rom axali
gazze momuSave Tbosadgurebi ar Sendeba axal adgilebSi. momuSave
Tbosadgurebis uaryofiTi zegavlena ukve arsebobs, da axali Tbosadgurebi
gazrdian am zegavlenas. es uaryofiTi zegavlenebi moicavs tenianobis zrdas
gacivebis sistemis gamo (gacivebis sistemis tipisgan damoukideblad) da
gazrdian nisliani dReebis raodenobas. radganac qvanaxSirze momuSave
Tbosadgurebidan mniSvelovani odenobis CO2–s gamoyofa Sedis sxva
kriteriumSi C4), gazze da qvanaxSirze momuSave sadgurebis zegavlena klimatis
cvlilebaze CaTvlilia mcired.
saSualo da mcire hidrosadgurebis da qaris sadgurebis klimatze zegavlena
Zlier umniSvneloa da ugulebelsayofia.
am qvekriteriumos mniSvnelobebi mocemulia cxrilSi 8.10
vcrili 8.10. E2 qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi – klimatis cvlilebaze
zegavlena
el.sadguris tipi E2 Kxudoni 0namaxvani 0hidro
faravani 0Ggazi -1
qvanaxSiri -1mcire hesebi 0
qari 0
E3. zegavlena haeris dabinZurebaze
haeris dabinZurebaze didi, saSualo da mcire hidroeleqtrosadgurebi da qaris
sadgurebi zegavlenas ar axdenen.
Tbosadgurebis zegavlena haeris dabinZurebaze sadgurebis siaxloves
detalurad aris aRwerili am reportis wina TavebSi. haeris dabinZureba
Slakis da nacris nawilakebiT Zalian seriozuli uaryofiTi zegavlenaa. aseve
SO2 da NOx gamoyofa, abinZurebs haers da iwvevs egreTwodebul mJave wvimebs
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
240
(ix. Tavi 5.1). wylis orTqli agreTve axdens uaryofiT zegavlenas da haeris
seriozul dabinZurebebas. daaxloebiT 3 ÷ 4 Ll/kvtsT wylis orTqli gaedineba
atmosferoSi, romelic Zlier abinZurebs Tbosadguris irgvliv farTo
teritorias. gazze momauSave sadgurebiT haeris dabinZureba ise mniSvnelovani
ar aris, rogorc qvanaxSirze momuSave sadgurebis SemTxvevaSi.
am qvekritriumis mniSvnelobebi mocemulia cxrilSi 8.11
cxrili 8.11. E3 qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi – haeris dabinZurebaze zegavlena
el.sadguris tipi E3 xudoni 0namaxvani 0hidro
faravani 0Ggazi -1
qvanaxSiri -2mcire hesebi 0
qari 0
E4. wylis reJimebze zegavlena
eleqtrosadgurebis (da maTi rezervuarebis) zegavlena wylis reJimebze
mdgomarebs mdinarebis reJimebis gauaresebaSi.
didi hidrosadgurebi (xudoni da namaxvanis kaskadi) maTi rezervuarebis
arealSi cvlian wylis reJimebs – wylis modineba ufro nelia rezervuaris
gavsebis Semdeg. magram es rezevuarebi ar arian didi moculobis da wlis
umetes nawilSi isini muSaoben eleqtrosadgurebSi wylis maRali gadagdebis
reJimSi kaSxlis maxloblad. amis garda, kaSxlis qvemoT (orive SemTxvevaSi)
mdebareobs dReisaTvis arsebuli rezervuari (enguris rezervuari xudonis
SemTxvevaSi, gumaTis rezervuari namaxvanis kaskadis SemTxvevaSi) da amgvarad
kaSxlis qvemoT hidrologiuri reJimebi ar icvleba. am faqtis gamo, xudonhesis
da namaxvanis kaskadis zegavlena wylis reJimebze mdinareebSi gansazRvrulia,
rogorc mcire. faravnis hesi aris saderivacio tipis eleqtrosadguri. es
warmoadgens did hidrosadgurs da igulisxmeba, rom garantirebuli
ekologiuri gadadineba SeiZleba gakontroldes monitoringis sistemis
saSualebiT, romlis dayeneba SesaZlebelia. swored amitom hidrosadgurebis
zegavlena hidrologiur reJimebze igulisxmeba rogorc Zlier umniSvneloa –
ugulebelsayofia.
gazze momuSave Tbosadgurebis zegavlena wylis reJimebze gulisxmobs mdinaris
wylis gamoyenebas sistemis gasaciveblad. es wyali mdinaris qvemoT ubrundeba
mdinares wylis reJimebis Secvlis gareSe. amitomacaa, rom zegavlena
gansazRvrulia rogorc mcire gazze da qvanaxSirze momuSave sadgurebisaTvis.
saSualo da mcire hisdrosadgurebi, gansakuTrebiT ki mcire sadgurebi
zegavlenas axdenen mdinarebSi wylis reJimebze, radgan maTi umetesoba
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
241
saderivacio tipisaa, da Znelia kaSxlidan qvemoT gadagdebuli wylis
kontroli. gamocdileba gviCvenebs, rom umetes SemTxvevebSi, gadagdebuli
wylis raodenoba zogadad tolia sididisa, romelic unda iqnas gadagdebuli
imisTvis rom aRdges qveda nakadis funqciebi (rogorc garantirebuli
ekologiuri gadadineba an garantirebuli dineba aucilebeli qveda
nakadisaTvis). amitomac wylis reJimebze zemoqmedeba gansazRvrulia, rogorc
mcire. qaris sadgurebs ar gaaCniaT wylis reJimebze zemoqmedeba.
am qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi mocemulia cxrilSi 8.12.
cxrili 8.12. E4 qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi – wylis reJimebze zegavlena
el.sadguris tipi E4xudoni -1namaxvani -1hidro
faravani 0Ggazi 0
qvanaxSiri 0mcire hesebi -1
qari 0
E5. wylis xarisxze zegavlena
xudonis rezervuaris mTliani moculobaa 230 milioni m3 da warmoadgens
yvelaze didi rezervuars gaanalizirebuli hidrosadgurebidan. Termuli
stratifikaciis frudis ricxvi miuTiTebs, rom rezervuars danamdvilebiT eqneba
gamoxatuli stratifikacia. magram, rezervuaris moculoba da wylis wliuri
modineba miuTiTebs, rom rezervuarSi wyali mTlianad 18-jer gamoicvleba wlis
ganmavlobaSi (gamocvlis periodia 20 dRe). xudonis rezervuaris
SemomsazRvrel arealSi ar aris sxva dabinZurebis wyaro. yvela es parametri
miuTiTebs, rom wylis xarisxi rezervuarSi finalur stadiaze kargi xarisxis
iqneba (oligotropuli an, uares SemTxvevaSi mezotropuli). amgvarad, wylis
xarisxze zemoqmedeba ganazRvrulia rogorc mcire.
namaxvanis kaskadis zegavlena wylis xarisxze cota ufro mcirea, radganac mas
SedarebiT patara moculobis rezervuari aqvs modinebul wyalTan da
hidrosadguris dadgmuli modinebasTan SedarebiT. tviSis da JoneTis
rezevuarebis moculobac Zalian pataraa. orive rezervuari dRiuri SezRuduli
regulirebisaa da mosalodnelia ar aris wylis xarisxis cvlileba am
rezervuarebSi. namaxvanis rezervuari ufro didia da rezervuarSi Cans cudi
stratifikaciis pirobebi. wylis moculobis gamocvla namaxvanis rezervuarSi
moxdeba weliwadSi 31-jer. es miuTiTebs imaze, rom rezervuarSi wylis
xarisxis didi sizustiT mihyveba wylis xarisxis cvlilebas mdinare rionSi.
magram rezervuariT SemosazRvrul teritoria SedarebiT mWidrodaa
dasaxlebuli da soflis meurneoba intensiuradaa ganviTarebuli. am faqtma
wylis nel dinebasTan erTad SeiZleba gamoiwvios wylis xarisxis garkveuli
cvlilebani. amitomac namaxvanis SemTxvevaSi wylis xarisxze zemoqmedebis
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
242
qvekriteriumis mniSvneloba Sefasebulia rogorc mcire. faravanis hesi
saderivacio tipisaa, mniSvnelovani wylis sacavis gareSe da Sesabamisad
mosalodneli ar aris wylis xarisxze raime zemoqmedeba.
Tbosadgurebis (qvanaxSirze da gazze momuSave) zegavlena wylis xarisxze
gamowveulia didi raodenobiT wylis gadinebiT, romelic gamoiyeneba gaciebis
sistemebisaTvis. ufro maRali temperaturis wyali arasasurvelia wylis
xarisxis TvalsazrisiT (is amcirebs gaxsnili Jangbadis koncentracias da
moqmedebs sicocxleze wyalSi). gasacivebeli sistemis konstruqciis mixedviT
(recirkulaciiT an mis gareSe) es zegavlena sxvadasxvaa. naxSirze momuSave
Tbosadurebs ufro meti wyali sWirdebaT. 300mgvt dadgmuli simZlavris
Tbosadgurs daaxloebiT 10m3/wm wyali sWirdeba (ix. Tavi 5.1). aseTi didi
moculobis cxeli wyali iwvevs wylis xarisxis mniSvnelovan cvlilebas. gazze
momuSave Tbosadgurs ufro naklebi wyali sWirdeba da amgvarad wylis
xarisxze zemoqmedeba gansazRvrulia rogorc mcire.
mcire da saSualo hidrosadgurebi, ise rogorc qaris sadgurebi ar axdenen
zegavlenas wylis xarisxze.
am qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi mocemulia cxrilSi 8.13.
cxrili 8.13. E5 qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi – wylis xarisxze zegavlena
el.sadguris tipi E5xudoni -1namaxvani -1hidro
faravani 0Ggazi -1
qvanaxSiri -2mcire hesebi 0
qari 0
E6. zegavlena vegetaciaze
xudonhesis da namaxvanis kaskadis rezervuarebi ar iqnebian ganlagebulni
bunebrivi nakrZalebis an erovnuli parkebis teritoriebze da SesaZlo
zegavlena mcenareTa samyaroze mosalodnelia rom mcire iqneba. arsebobs
garkveuli dadebiTi zegavlena rezervuaris siaxloves maRali tenianobis gamo,
magram es zegavlena SezRudulia mxolod rezervuaris axlos ganTavsebul
teritoriebze da amgvarad es mxedvelobaSi ar iqn miRebuli. faravanis hesi,
saSualo da mcire hesebi da qaris eleqtrosadgurebi gavlenas ar axdenen
vegetaciaze.
Tbosadgurebis gavlena vegetaciaze sxvadasxvaa da igi damokidebulia gaciebis
sistemaze da dadgmul simZlavreze. SO2 da NOx gamoyofa iwvevs egreTwodebul
mJavian wvimas, romelic uaryofiT zegavlenas axdens vegetaciaze. aseve, haeris
maRali mJavianoba, tenianoba da mJavas nislis warmoqmna mniSvnelovan gavlenas
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
243
axdenen vegetaciaze. yoveli zemoTqmulis gaTvaliswinebiT, Tbosadguri gavlenas
moaxdens vegetaciaze da es gavlena miCneulia rogorc mcire gavlena.
am qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi mocemulia cxrilSi 8.14.
cxrili 8.14. E6 qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi – vegetaciaze zegavlena
el.sadguris tipi E6xudoni 0namaxvani 0hidro
faravani 0Ggazi -1
qvanaxSiri -1mcire hesebi 0
qari 0
E7. faunaze zegavlena
xudonhesis da namaxvanis kaskadis rezervuarebi ar iqnebian ganlagebulni
bunebrivi nakrZalebis an erovnuli parkebis teritoriebze. daculi
teritoriebi orive mdinareze (enguri da rioni) mdebareobs gaanalizirebuli
kaSxlebis (hidrosadgurebis sistemis) qvemoT da maTi grZivi migraciis gamo
ukve ganicdian zemoqmedebas qvemoT ganlagebuli kaSxlebis gamo (enguris
kaSxali mdinare engurze da gumaTis da rionis kaSxlebi – mdinare rionze). es
aRwerilia TavSi 5.2. Secvlil hidrologiur reJimebs garkveuli zegavlena
eqnebaT Tevzis saxeobebze, magram es zegavlena mniSvnelovani ver iqneba am
mdinareebis hidrologiis adre ganxorcielebuli cvlilebebis gamo. ar aris
mosalodneli, rom cxovelTa sxva saxeobebma ganicadon mniSvnelovani
araxelsayreli zegavlena.
faravnis hidrosadgurs da saSualo zomis hidrosadgurebs minimaluri
zegavlena eqnebaT bunebriv garemosa da cxovelTa saxeobebze. mcire hesebs,
saderivacio sistemis SemTxvevaSi, Tu ar aris mkacri kontroli garantirebul
gadinebaze, SeuZliaT mniSvnelovani zegavlena moaxdinon momdinare wylis yvela
saxeobaze (bunebrivi garemo da florisa da faunis calkeuli saxeobebi).
Zalian xSirad, aseT sistemebze, mTeli modinebuli wyali mimarTulia
hidrosadgurze, zRudidan dabla wylis gadagdebis gareSe. Tumca, wylis
gadagdebis garantirebuli moTxovnebis mkacri dacvis SemTxvevaSi es problemebi
ar warmoiSveba. amis gaTvaliswinebiT, es zemoqmdeba ganisazRvra, rogorc mcire.
Tbosadgurebis uaryofiTi zegavlenis gansazRvra cxovelTa saxeobebze rTulia.
haeris dabinZurebas, mJava wvimebs da mikroklimatis pirobebis cvlilebas
gaaCniaT arasaxarbielo zegavlena florasa da faunaze Tbosadgurebis farTo
teritoriaze. biomravalferovnebis Semcireba warmoadens Tbosadgurebis zrdad
erTerT uaryofiT zegavlenas. axali gazze momuSave blokebis gamoyeneba
gamoiwvevs ufro nakleb zegavlenas gamoiwvevs, vidre naxSirze momuSave
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
244
sadgurebi. am faqtebis gamo, axali Tbosadgurebis zegavlena (gazsa da
qvanaxSirze momuSave sadgurebi) gansazRvrulia, rogorc mcire.
qaris sadgurebs, gansakuTrebiT ki did sadgurebs uaryofiTi zegavlena aqvT
cxovelTa saxobebze. es sadgurebi iwveven vibracias da xmaurs garemo
teritoriaze. es fenomeni arasaxarbiloa yvela cocxali saxeobisaTvis. veluri
cxovelebi toveben im teritorias, sadac eleqtrosadguris xmauris gavlenaa.
ufro didi qaris sadgurebi arasasurvelia frinvelebis migraciis TvalsazisiT.
amis gamo es zemoqmedeba CaiTvala mniSvnelovnad.
am qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi mocemulia cxrilSi 8.15.
cxrili 8.15. E7 qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi – faunaze zegavlena
el.sadguris tipi E7xudoni -1namaxvani -1hidro
faravani 0Ggazi -1
qvanaxSiri -1mcire hesebi 0
qari -2
E8. landSaftze zegavlena
bevr adgilas Cans, rom rezervuari dadebiT gavlenas axdens landSaftze,
xolo sxva adgilebSi, sadac mSvenieri bunebrivi landSafti daitbora, misi
zegavlena uaryofiTia. landSaftze zemoqmedeba dakavSirebulia agreTve
rezervuaris qvemoT wylis nakadebis cvlilebasTan, roca rezervuari itevs
didi raodenobiT wyals. xSirad rezervuari saSualebas iZleva ganviTardes
turizmi da rekreaciuli zona, rac zrdis miwis Rirebulebas da xels uwyobs
ekonomiur atiurobas, romelic iwvevs dasaqmebis gazrdas. amitomac
rezervuarebis zegavlena landSaftze Sefasebulia rogorc Zlier umniSvnelo
da ugulebelsayofia.
Tbosadgurebi yvela damxmare nagebobebiT (naqSirsayreli, transportitebis
saSualebebi, naxSiris damaqucmacebeli, rezervuarebi, Sxefsacivrebi da sxva)
amcirebs landSaftis harmoniulobas. Tbosadguri landSaftis arasasurveli
mezobelia. Cvens SemTxvevaSi saqarTvelos qvanaxSirze momuSave Tbosadgurebi
ganlagebulia zRvis sanapiro zolSi an mis maxloblad, romelic SezRudulia
farTobSi da amitom am landSaftze zemoqmedebis Semcireba mniSvnelovania.
TbosadgurebisaTvis qvanaxSiris importireba moxdeba zRviT, da saWiro iqneba
portis ageba nayari tvirTisaTvis – qvanaxSirisaTvis. aseTi porti agreTve
arasasurveli mezobelia, radgan igi abinZurebs garemos: vizualurad, naxSiris
mtveri misi yoveli gadatanis da transportirebis fazaSi, warmoSobs xmaurs
da lokalurad abinZurebs zRvas. amitom qvanaxSirze momuSave Tbosadgurebis
zegavlena landSaftze miCneulia mniSvnelovnad.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
245
gazze momuSave Tbosadgurebi aSendeba arsebuli Tbosadgurebis adgilze
(rogorc adre iyo aRwerili), ar moxdeba axali adgilis dakaveba; Sedegad
landSaftze axal uaryofiT zemoqmedebas adgili ar eqneba.
qaris sadgurebi arRveven landSaftis harmonias, gansakuTrebiT zRvispira
zolsa da mTian regionSi da maTi zemoqmedeba landSaftze miCneulia mcired.
am qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi mocemulia cxrilSi 8.16.
cxrili 8.16. E8 qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi – landSaftze zegavlena
el.sadguris tipi E8xudoni 0namaxvani 0hidro
faravani 0Ggazi 0
qvanaxSiri -2mcire hesebi 0
qari -1
E9. ganaxlebadi energiis wyaro
es qvekriteriumi exeba energiis wyaroebs. mas gaaCnia mxolod ori mniSvneloba:
1 – ganaxlebadi energiis wyaroebisaTvis
2 – gazis da qvanaxSiris wyaroebisaTvis
am qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi mocemulia cxrilSi 8.17.
cxrili 8.17. E9 qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi – ganaxlebadi energiis wyaroebi
el.sadguris tipi E9xudoni +1namaxvani +1hidro
faravani +1Ggazi 0
qvanaxSiri 0mcire hesebi +1
qari +1
garemoze zemoqmedebis kriteriumis (ENV) yvela qvekriteriumi daaxloebiT
erTidaigive mniSvnelobisaa. swored amitom jamuri zemoqmedeba gansazRvrulia
rogorc TiToeuli sadgurisTvis aRebuli qvekriterumebis jami. es
mniSvnelobebi mocemulia cxrilSi 8.18 da naxazze 8-2.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
246
cxrili 8.18. garemoze zemoqmedebis qvekriteriumebis mniSvnelobebi TiToeuli
proeqtisaTvis
el.sadguris tipi E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 jami
xudoni -1 -1 -1 -1 -3namaxvani -2 -1 -1 -1 -4hidro
faravani 00 0
0 00
00 +1
+1Ggazi 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -5
qvanaxSiri -1 -1 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 -10mcire hesebi 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 +1 0
qari 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 +1 -2
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
Khudoni Namakhvani Paravani Gas Coal sHPP wind
Sum
mar
ized
Env
ironm
enta
l Im
pact
of D
iffer
ent P
roje
cts
naxazi 8-2. sxvadasxva proeqtebis Sejamebuli zemoqmedeba garemoze
garemoze zemoqmedebis kriteriumebi, ganviTarebis yoveli alternativisaTvis
gamoTvlilia rogorc am alternativaSi Semavali yoveli eleqtrosadguris
qvekriteriumebis jami. garkveuli modifikacia gakeTebulia mxolod gazze
momuSave TbosadgurebisaTvis ; es imis gamoa gakeTebuli, rom sxvadasxva
alternativa Seicavs aseTi sadgurebis sxvadasxva raodenobas. radganac gazze
momuSave TbosgurebisaTvis garemoze zemoqmedebis qvekriteriumebis jami iZleva
axali Tbosadgurebis garemoze zemoqmedebis dones, es sidide mravldeba woniT
koeficientze K – gazze momuSave sadgurebis raodenobaze alternativaSi
Sefardebuli Tbosadgurebis maqsimalur raodnobasTan. gazze momuSave
Tbosadgurebis maqsimaluri raodenobaa 6. sxvadasxva alternativaSi CarTuli
gazis Tbosadgurebis raodenobebi da Sesabamisi K koeficientebi tolia :
-sabazo da A1r 4 eleqtrosadguri K=0.667 - A3 6 eleqtrosadguri K=1 - A4 da A5 5 eleqtrosadguri K=0.833 - A2 da A6 0 eleqtrosadguri
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
247
Sejamebuli qvekriteriumebis mniSvnelobebi TiToeuli alternativis
SemTxvevaSi uaryofiTi sididea. radganac mravalkriteriumiani Sefasebisas
uaryofiTi mniSvnelobebi rekomendirebuli ar aris, ricxvi 12 daemata am
mniSvnelobebs (maqsimaluri uaryofiTi mniSvneloba gaizarda 2-mde). Sedegad
miviReT garemoze zemoqmedebis kriteriumis (ENV) sidide, romelic gamoiyeneba
ganviTarebis alternativebis mravalkriteriumiani ranJirebisas. ranJirebis
proceSi moxdeba am kriteriumis maqsimizacia. es sidideebi mocemulia cxrilSi
8.19 da naxazze 8-3.
cxrili 8.19 ENV kriteriumis mniSvneloba TiToeuli alternativisaTvis
hidro alternativ
a gazi
naxS
iri
mcire
hesebi qari jami ENV
sabazo -3 -4 +1 -3.3 -9.3 2.7A1r -4 +1 -3.3 0 -2 -8.3 3.7A2 -3 -4 +1 -6 6A3 -5 -5 7A4 -3 +1 -4.2 -6.2 5.8A5 -4 +1 -4.2 -7.2 4.8A6 -10 -10 2
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Sum
mar
ized
Env
ironm
enta
l Im
pact
of D
iffer
ent A
ltern
ativ
es
BaseCase A1r A2 A3 A4 A5 A6
naxazi 8-3. sxvadasxva alternativebisaTvis garemoze jamuri zemoqmedeba
C8: socialuri zegavlenis kriteriumi (SOC)
socialuri zegavlenis kriterumi gulisxmobs sxvadasxva eleqtrosadgurebis
zegavlenas sazogadoebaze (mosaxleoba, kultura da istoria). wina
kriteriumebis msgavsad, am kriteriumis mniSvneloba Sefasebulia 5-e TavSi
mocemuli analizis da jgufis eqsperti wevrebis codnis safuZvelze.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
248
gaanalizda eleqtrosadgurebis (hidrosadgurebis da gazze da qvanaxSirze
momuSave Tbosadgurebis) da damatebiTi proeqtebis yvelaze mniSvnelovani
zegavlenebi da es kriteriumi ganisazRvra, rogorc Semdegi qvekriteriumebis
erToblioba:
S1 mosaxleobis gadasaxlebaze zegavlena
S2 soflis meurneobis produqtebis warmoebaze
zegavlena, S3 transportis infrastruqturaze zgavlena
S4 rekreaciuli zonisa da turizmis ganviTarebis
SesaZlebloba
S5 adgilobivi mosaxleobis janmrTelobaze
zegavlena
midgoma iseTivea, rogorc garemoze
zemoqmedebis kriteriumis SemTxvevaSi.
TiToeuli es kriteriumi ganisazRvreba
calclake xudonis hesis, namaxvanis
kaskadis, faravanis hesis, gazze momuSave
Tbosadurebis, qvanaxSirze momuSave
Tbosadgurebis, ganaxlebadi energiis
wyaroebis – mcire hesebis da qaris
sadgurebis SemTxvevebSi.
am kriteriumis mniSvnelobebi Sejamebulia
TiToeuli eleqtrosadgurisaTvis (cxrili
8.20 – midroma, cxrili 8.26 – zegavlena), da Semdeg TiToeuli ganviTarebis
alternativisaTvis (cxrili 8.27).
cxrili 8.20. socialuri zegavlenis gansazRvris meTodi TiToeuli
eleqtrosadguris SemTxvevaSi
el.sadguris tipi C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 Sumxudoni Kc1 Kc2 Kc3 Kc4 Kc5 Kc namaxvani Nc1 Nc2 Nc3 Nc4 Nc5 Nchidro
faravani Pc1 Pc2 Pc3 Pc4 Pc5 Pc Ggazi Gc1 Gc2 Gc3 Gc4 Gc5 Gc
qvanaxSiri Cc1 Cc2 Cc3 Cc4 Cc5 Ccmcire hesebi Mc1 Mc2 Mc3 Mc4 Mc5 Mc
qari Wc1 Wc2 Wc3 Wc4 Wc5 Wc
S1 mosaxleobis gadasaxlebaze zegavlena
es qvekriteriumi moicavs mosaxleobis gadasaxlebas, rogorc axali
eleqtrosadgurebis da damxmare nagebobebis mSeneblobis Sedegs. es parametri
gamosaxulia kuTr sidideSi – gadasaxlebuli mosaxleobis raodenoba
SerCeul qvekriteriumebs SeiZleba
hqondeT dadebiTi an uaryofiTi
zeegavlena. es SeiZleba ganisazRvros
rogorc:
2 – mniSvnelovani dadebiTi zegavlena
1 – mcire dadebiTi zegavlena
0 – ugulebelsayofi zegavlena
-1 – mcire uaryofiTi zegavlena
-2 – mniSvnelovani uaryofiTi
zegavlena
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
249
eleqtrosadguris dadgmul simZlavresTan mimarTebaSi (mosaxleoba/mgvt). es
kuTri parametri Semdeg gadadis mniSvnelobaSi (parametrSi), romelic gviCvenebs
zegavlenis gafarToebas, da romelic ganisazRvreba ise rogorc es zemoTaa
aRwerili.
xudonhesis da namaxvanis kaskadis SemTxvevaSi mosaxleobis gadasaxlebis mizezia
rezervuarebis mSenebloba. es sidideebi mocemulia cxrilSi 8.21. faravanhesi
saderivacio tipis eleqtrosadguria, mcire rezervuariT da mosaxleobis
gadasaxlebas adgili ar aqvs.
nagulisxmvia, rom axali qvanaxSirze momuSave Tbosadgurebi ganlagebuli iqneba
im adgilebSi sadac mosaxleobis gadasaxleba saWiro ar iqneba, radgan misi
mdebareoba ar aris gansazRvruli qvanaxSiris maRaros mdebareobiT (qvanaxSiris
ZiriTadi nawili importirebuli iqneba). gazze momuSave Tbosadgurebi
ganlagebulni iqnebian ukve arsebuli sadgurebis adgilas da Sesabamisad
mosaxleobis gadasaxlebas adgili ar eqneba.
ar arsebobs monacemebi mcire da saSualo hidrosadgurebis zusti ganlagebis da
mosaxleobis SesaZlo gadasaxlebis Sesaxeb. mosalodnelia, rom gadasaxleba
iqneba mcire, romlis ugulebelyofa SeiZleba im gadasaxlebebTan SedarebiT,
romelTac adgili eqnebaT didi hidrosadgurebis SemTxvevaSi. mosalodnelia, rom
mosaxleobis gadasaxlebas adgili ar eqneba qaris eleqtrosagurebis
mSeneblobisas.
cxrili 8.21 S1 qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi – mosaxlebis gadasaxlebaze
zegavlena
el.sadguris tipi
gadasasaxlebeli
mosaxleobis
raodenoba
(suli)
dadgmuli
simZlavre
(mgvt)
kuTri
gadasaxleba
(suli/mgvt)
S1
xudoni 1500 638 2.35 -2namaxvani 279 450 0.62 -1hidro
faravani - 123 - 0Ggazi 0
qvanaxSiri 0mcire hesebi 0
qari 0
S2. soflis meurneobis warmoebaze zegavlena
am angarisis momzadebisas ar arsebobda monacemebi im sasoflo-sameurneo
miwebis Sesaxeb, romelic daitboreba xudonis rezervuariT. am rezervuars
SedarebiT mcire wylis zedapiri aqvs, iqmneba mdinare enguris xeobaSi, im
adgilas sadac mosaxleoba ar aris orientirebuli soflis meurneobaze.
amitomac xudonhesis zegavlena soflis meurneobis warmoebaze CaTvlilia
mcired.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
250
situacia namaxvanis kaskadis SemTxvevaSi mTlianad gansxvavebulia. es
rezervuarebi Seiqmneba im adgilebSi, sadac mosaxleoba orientirebulia
soflis meurneobis warmoebaze. es sistema datboravs 830ha sasoflo-sameurneo
miwas an 1.85ha/mgvt. miuxedavad imisa, rom moxdeba datborili teritoriis
kompensacia, dakarguli sasoflo-sameurneo miwis moculoba mniSvnelovania da
es CaTvlilia namaxvanis kaskadis mniSvnelovan uaryofiT zegavlenad soflis
meurneobis warmoebaze.
faravanis hesis SemTxvevaSi adgili ar eqneba sasoflo-sameurneo daniSnulebis
miwis dakargvas.
axali naxSirze momuSave sadgurebis uaryofiTi zegavlena soflis meurneobis
warmoebaze mravali faqtoris Sedegia. haeris dabinZurebas, mJava wvimebs,
mikroklimatis mdgomareobis gauaresebas - arasaxarbielo zegavlena aqvT
soflis meurneobis warmoebaze Tbosadguris farTe arealSi. aseve, haeris
maRali mJavianoba, tenianoba da mJava nislis warmoqmna, mniSvnelovani
uaryofiTi zegavlenaa soflis meurneobis warmoebaze, ise rogorc is didi
farTobebi, romlebic saWiroa ferflis sayrelebisaTvis. yvela moxseniebuli
faqtebis gaTvaliswinebiT qvanaxSirze momuSave Tbosadgurbs eqnebaT uaryofiTi
zegavlena soflis meurneobis warmoebaze.
gazze momuSave Tbosdadgurebis zegavlena soflis meurneobis warmoebaze ise
mniSvnelovani ar aris, rogorc naxSirze momuSave TbosadgurebisaTvis. axali
gazze momuSave Tbosadgurebis soflis meurneobis warmoebaze uaryofiTi
zemoqmedeba SeiZleba CaiTvalos Zlier mcired.
faravnis hesi, saSualo da mcire hesebi da qaris sadgurebi uqryofiT
zegavlenas ar axdenen soflis meurneobis warmoebaze.
cxrili 8.22. S2 qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi – zegavlena soflis meurneobis
warmoebaze
el.sadguris tipi S2 xudoni 0namaxvani -1hidro
faravani 0Ggazi 0
qvanaxSiri -1mcire hesebi 0
qari 0
S3. satransporto infrastruqturaze zegavlena
xudonis kaSxalis da hidrosadguris aSeneba unda moxdes mdinare enguris
xeobaSi. Sidasaxelmwifoebrivi mniSvnelobis gza, romelic aerTebs mestias
zugdidTan da gzatkecili gadis mdinare enguris gaswvriv. gza cud
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
251
mdgomareobaSia, da rogorc xudonis proeqtis nawili gayvanil iqneba 40km
betonis axali gza axal marSrutze jvaridan xaiSamde. amis garda, droebiTi da
mudmivi gzebis mSenebloba gaaumjobesebs mestiis raionis mosaxleobis
sacxovrebel pirobebs. amitom xudonis hesis zegavlena satransporto
infrastruquraze CaTvlilia dadebiTad – mcire dadebiTi zegavlena.
sxva sadgurebis zegavlena (sxva hesebi, Tbosadgurebi, mcire da saSualo hesebi
da qaris sadguri) SedarebiT mcirea da CaTvlilia Zlier mcired, romlis
ugulebelyofa SeiZleba.
cxrili 8.23. S3 qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi – satransporto
infrastruqturaze zegavlena
el.sadguris tipi S3 xudoni +1namaxvani 0hidro
faravani 0Ggazi 0
qvanaxSiri 0mcire hesebi 0
qari 0
S4. rekreciisa da turizmis ganviTarebis SesaZleblobani
es qvekriteriumi aerTianebs rekreaciis, turizmis, wylis sportis saxeobebis da
sxva saSualebebis ganviTarebis SesaZleblobebs mocemul teritoriebze. am mxriv
namaxvanis kaskads gaaCnia yvelaze didi SesaZlebloba, romelic ganlagebulia
SedarebiT mWidro dasaxlebul teritoriaze, didi raionuli centris (quTaisi)
maxloblad. namaxvanis kaskadis zegavlena teritoriis ganviTarebaze
mniSvnelovnad dadebiTia. xudonis rezervuars agreTve aqvs SesaZlebloba
ganaviTaros mocemuli teritoria, magram is ganlagebulia Rarib da iSviaTad
dasaxlebul adgilas da amitom CiTvala, rom xudonis zegavlena mcired
dadebiTia.
gazze momuSave Tbosadguri gavlenas ar axdens (arc dadebiT da arc uaryofiTs)
teritoriis ganviTarebaze, radganac maTi aSeneba gamiznulia ukve arsebuli
sadgurebis adgilas.
qvanaxSirze momuSave Tbosadgurebi mniSvnelovnad uaryofiT zegavlenas axdenen
teritoriis ganviTarebaze. es Tbosadgurebi ganlagebuli iqnebian sanapiro zolis
maxloblad, rac niSnavs, rom napiris garkveuli nawili (qvanaxSiris
gadmosatvirTi portis irgvliv) daikargeba turistuli miznebisaTvis. es ki
warmoadgens teritorias (Savi zRvis napiri), romelsac yvelaze maRali
turistuli Rirebuleba da ganviTarebis SesaZleblobebi aqvs saqarTveloSi.
faravanis hesi, saSualo da mcire hesebi ar axdenen zegavlenas teritoriis
ganviTarebis SesaZleblobebze. qaris sadgurebs aqvT mcire uaryofiTi zemoqmedeba,
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
252
radganac isini warmoSoben vibracias da xmaurs, rac arasasiamovnoa
mosaxleobisaTvis, iseve rogorc arsebuli cocxali saxeobebisaTvis.
cxrili 8.24. S4 qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi – rekreaciisa da turizmis
ganviTarebis SesaZleblobebi
el.sadguris tipi S4 xudoni +1namaxvani +2hidro
faravani 0Ggazi 0
qvanaxSiri -2mcire hesebi 0
qari -1
S5. adgilobrivi mosaxleobis janmrTelobaze zegavlena
rezervuarebi ar axdenen uaryofiT zegavlenas adgilobrivi mosaxleobis
janmrTelobaze. amgvarad, xudoni, namaxvanis kaskadi, faravani, saSualo da
mcire hesebi ar axdenen uaryofiT zegavlenas adgilobrivi mosaxleobis
janmrTelobaze.
qvanaxSirze momuSave Tbosadgurebs gaaCniaT uaryofiTi zegavlena adgilobrivi
mosaxleobis janmrTelobaze. zemoqmedeba Sedegia adre aRniSnuli efeqtebisa:
Slakisa da nacris nawilakebiT haeri dabinZureba (gansakuTrebiT sadguris
maxloblobaSi), SO2 da NOx gamoyofa, romelic iwvevs egreTwodebul mJava
wvimebs, mikroklimatis mdgomareobis gauareseba – es mxolod nawilia
uayofiTi efeqtebisa. es zemoqmedeba CaiTvala rogorc mcire uaryofiTi
zemoqmedeba.
qaris sadgurebs agreTve gaaCniaT garkveuli uaryofiTi zemoqmedeba, imis gamo,
rom vibracia da xmauri arasasiamovnoa da SeiZleba saSiSic iyos sadguris
axlos mcxovrebi mosaxleobisaTvis. miuxedavad amisa zegavlena SedarebiT
mcirea da qvekriteriumi SeiZleba CaiTvalos rogorc mcire.
cxrili 8.25. qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi – adgilobrivi mosaxleobis
janmrTelobaze zegavlena
el.sadguris tipi S5 xudoni 0namaxvani 0hidro
faravani 0Ggazi 0
qvanaxSiri -1mcire hesebi 0
qari 0
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
253
qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi mocemulia cxrilSi 8.26 da naxazze 8-4. pirveli
qvekritriumi S1, romelic exeba mosaxleobis gadasaxlebas ufro
mniSvnelovania vidre sxvebi. amis gamo am qvekriteriumis mniSvnelobebi
gamravlebulia orze da mere Sejamebulia sxvebTan.
cxrili 8.26. socialuri qvekriteriumi mniSvnelobebi TiToeuli proeqtisaTvis
el.sadguris tipi S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Sumxudoni -2 2 = -4 0 +1 +1 0 -2 namaxvani -1 2 = -2 -1 0 +2 0 -1 hidro
faravani 0 0 0 0 0 0Ggazi 0 0 0 0 0 0
qvanaxSiri 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -4 mcire hesebi 0 0 0 0 0 0
qari 0 0 0 -1 0 -1
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Khudoni Namakhvani Paravani Gas Coal sHPP wind
Sum
mar
ized
Soc
ial I
mpa
ct o
f Diff
eren
t Pro
ject
s
naxazi 8-4. sxvadasxva proeqtebis socialuri zegavlenebis jami
eleqtrosadgurebis socialuri zegavlenis mniSvnelobebi Sejamebulia TiToeuli
alternativisaTvis. am sidideebs uaryofiTi mniSvnelobebi aqvT, rac
rekomendirebuli ar aris mravalkriteriumiani ranJirebisTvis. swored amitom es
sidideebi gadayvanil iqna dadebiT sidideebSi 2 erTeuliT gadidebuli
maqsimaluri uaryofiTi mniSvnelobis damatebiT. socialuri zegavlenis
kriteriumis mniSvnelobebi sxvadasxva alternativebisaTvis mocemulia cxrilSi
8.27 da naxazze 8-5.
cxrili 8.27. socialuri zegavlenis kriteriumis mniSvnelobebi TiToeuli
alternativisaTvis
alternativa hidro gazi naxS. mcire qari jami SOC
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
254
Kxudoni Nnamaxvani Pfaravani hesebi
Bsabazo -2 -1 0 0 -3 3A1r -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 4A2 -2 -1 0 -3 3A3 0 0 6A4 -2 0 0 -2 4A5 -1 0 0 -1 5A6 -4 -4 2
-4
-3.5
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
Sum
mar
ized
Soc
ial I
mpa
ct o
f Diff
eren
t Alte
rnat
ives
BaseCase A1r A2 A3 A4 A5 A6
naxazi 8-5. Sejamebuli socialuri zegavlena sxvadasxva alternativisaTvis
9 garemoze zemoqmedebis da 5 socialuri qvekriteriumis zemoTgansazRvruli
mniSvnelobebi kandidati proeqtebis sabaziso teqnikur da ekonomikur
maxasiaTeblebTan erTad Sejamebulia cxrilSi 8.28; arCeuli ganviTarebis
alternativebis jamuri integrirebuli maxasiaTeblebi ki mocemulia cxrilSi
8.29.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
255
nxrili 8.28. kandidati proeqtebis Sejamebuli maxasiaTeblebi
gazi
150mgvt
importir.
naxSiri
300mgvt
xudonhesi namaxvanis
kaskadi
faravani
hesi
mcire hesebi
10mgvt-ze
naklebi
mcire
hesebi 10-
50mgvt
Soris
qaris
sadgurebi
sadguris
simZlavre (mgvt) 150 300 638 450 123 5 25 9
saSualo
generacia (gvtsT) 1328 1678 440 22 99 27
kapitaluri
danaxarji
(mil.US$) 150 428 604 641 113 15 67.5 14.4
kapitaluri
danaxarji
(US$/kv) 1042 1562 947 1424 919 3000 2700 1600
mSeneblobis
periodi (weli) 3 4 5 4/5/4 3 2 3 2
SesaZlo gaSvebis
weli 2011 2011 2013 2013 2013 2011 2011 2011
zemoqmedebis qveS
myofi farTobi
ugulebe
lsayofi
mcire
uaryofiTi
mcire
uaryofiTi
mniSvnelovna
d uaryofiTi
ugulebel
sayofi ugulebelsayofi
ugulebelsayo
fi
klimatis
cvlilebaze
zemoqmedeba
mcire
uaryof
iTi
mcire
uaryofiTi
ugulebelsa
yofi
ugulebelsayo
fi
ugulebel
sayofi ugulebelsayofi
ugulebelsayo
fi
haeris
dabinZurebaze
zemoqmedeba
mcire
uaryofi
Ti
mniSvnelovna
d uaryofiTi
ugulebelsa
yofi
ugulebelsayo
fi
ugulebel
sayofi ugulebelsayofi
ugulebelsayo
fi
hidrologiur
reJimebze
zemoqmedeba
ugulebe
lsayofi
ugulebelsayo
fi
mcire
uaryofiTi
mcire
uaryofiTi
ugulebel
sayofi mcire uaryofiTi
ugulebelsayo
fi
wylis xarisxze
zemoqmedeba
mcire
uaryof
iTi
mniSvnelovna
d uaryofiTi
mcire
uaryofiTi
mcire
uaryofiTi
ugulebel
sayofi ugulebelsayofi
ugulebelsayo
fi
vegetaciaze
zemoqmedeba
mcire
uaryof
iTi
mcire
uaryofiTi
ugulebels
ayofi
ugulebelsay
ofi
ugulebel
sayofi ugulebelsayofi
ugulebelsayo
fi
faunaze
zemoqmedeba
mcire
uaryof
iTi
mcire
uaryofiTi
mcire
uaryofiTi
mcire
uaryofiTi
ugulebel
sayofi ugulebelsayofi
mniSvnelovna
d uaryofiTi
landsaftze
zemoqmedeba
ugulebe
lsayofi
mniSvnelovna
d uaryofiTi
ugulebelsa
yofi
ugulebelsayo
fi
ugulebel
sayofi ugulebelsayofi
mcire
uaryofiTi
energiis
wyaroebis
ganaxlebadoba
ara ara diax diax diax diax diax
mosaxleobis
gadasaxlebaze
zemoqmedeba
ugulebe
lsayofi
ugulebelsayo
fi
mniSvnelov
nad
uaryofiTi
mcire
uaryofiTi
ugulebel
sayofi ugulebelsayofi
ugulebelsayo
fi
sof. meurneobis
warmoebaze
zemoqmedeba
ugulebe
lsayofi
mcire
uaryofiTi
ugulebelsa
yofi
mcire
uaryofiTi
ugulebel
sayofi ugulebelsayofi
ugulebelsayo
fi
satransporto
infrastruqturaz
e zemoqmedeba
ugulebe
lsayofi
ugulebelsayo
fi
mcire
dadebiTi
ugulebelsayo
fi
ugulebel
sayofi ugulebelsayofi
ugulebelsayo
fi
rekreaciasa da
turizmze
zemoqmedeba
ugulebe
lsayofi
mniSvnelovna
d uaryofiTi
mcire
dadebiTi
mniSvnelovna
d dadebiTi
ugulebel
sayofi ugulebelsayofi
mcire
uaryofiTi
mosaxleobis
janmrTelobaze
zemoqmedeba
ugulebe
lsayofi
mcire
uaryofiTi
ugulebelsa
yofi
ugulebelsayo
fi
ugulebel
sayofi ugulebelsayofi
ugulebelsayo
fi
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
256
cxrili 8.29: SerCeuli ganviTarebis alternativebis Sejamebuli
intergirebuli maxasiaTeblebi
B A1R A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 SezRuduli
importi
ganaxlebadi importis
alternati
va
mxolod gazi mxolod
xudonhesi
mxolod
namaxvanis
kaskadi
mxolod
naxSiri
komb. cikl.
gaz-turbina
150 mgvt
xudonhesi 638 mgvt
namaxvanis
kaskadi
450 mgvt
faravani hesi 120 mgvt
naxSiri 300 mgvt
ganaxlebadi 495 mgvt
NPV (mil.US$) 2109 2224 1734 2156 2201 2132 1990
saoperacio
xarjebi (mil.US$) 1673 1642 1233 1895 1709 1674 1614
PREV (mil.US$) 245 274 163 173 259 244 173
CO2gamosxiveba (1000t) 20304 22671 9630 26675 21396 20490 45259
eleqtroenerg
iis importi mcire mcireZalian
didi mcire mcire mcire mcire
energousafrT
xoebis rangi
1-umcires
8-udidesi
4.2 4.7 8 1 3.7 4.1 3
jamuri
dadebiTi
garemoze
zemoqmedeba
2- umcires
7- udidesi
2.7 3.7 6 7 5.8 4.8 2
jamuri
dadebiTi
socialuri
zegavlena
2- umcires
6- udidesi
3 4 3 6 4 5 2
kargi
dadebiTi
Sualeduri
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
257
cudi
mavnebeli
8.3. mravalkriteriumiani ranJirebis Sedegebi
mravalkriteriumiani ranJirebis meTodologia aRwerilia danarTSi da
ranJireba ganxorcielebulia ICOR programuli uzrunvelyofis gamoyenebiT.
Svidi alternativa gaanalizda da gaukeTda ranJireba:
sabazo - gvTavazobs 4 axali gazze momuSave Tbosadguris, xudonis,
namaxvanis kaskadis da faravani hesis mSeneblobebs;
A1r - gvTavazobs 4 axali gazze momuSave Tbosadguris, namaxvanis
kaskadis, faravani hesis, garkveuli raodenobis mcire hesebis da
qaris sadguris mSeneblobebs;
A2 - gvTavazobs mxolod axali hidrosadgurebis (xudoni, namaxvanis
kaskadi da faravani) mSeneblobebs da eleqtroenergiis gacvlas
mezobel qveynebTan;
A3 - gvTavazobs 6 axali gazze momuSave Tbosadguris mSeneblobas
(hidrosadgurebis gareSe);
A4 - gvTavazobs 5 axali gazze momuSave Tbosadguris da xudonhesis
mSeneblobas;
A5 - gvTavazobs 5 axali gazze momuSave Tbosadguris da namaxvanis
kaskadis mSeneblobas (3 axali hidrosadguri); da
A6 - gvTavazobs 3 axali qvanaxSirze momuSave Tbosadguris
mSeneblobas.
alternativebis mravalkriteriumiani ranJireba Catarda 8 kriteriumis
gamoyenebiT (ixile cxrili 8.30), romlebic detaluradaa aRwerili wina
TavSi:
NPV - yvela investiciis, ganviTarebis da 2021 wlamde saqarTvelos
energosistemis operirebis saoperacio xarjebis mTliani wminda
mimdinare Rirebuleba (mil. US$) OPC - yvela saoperacio xarjebis da 2021 wlamde saqarTvelos
energosistemis operirebis mTliani wminda mimdinare Rirebuleba
(mil. US$) IMP - eleqtroenergiis importis indikatori (-)
CO2 - CO2-s gamoyofa 2007-2021 wlebSi (1000t)
REL - energousafrTxoeba – energosawvavis mowodebis saimedooba (-)
ENV - ganviTarebis alternativebis jamuri ekologiuri zemoqmedeba (-)
SOC - ganviTarebis alternativebis jamuri socialuri zemoqmedeba (-)
PREV - eleqtroenergiis eqsportirebis potenciali 2007-2021 wlebSi
(mil. US$).
ganmartebuli rva kriteriumis mniSvnelobebi TiToeuli Svidi alternatividan
da eqstremizacis funqciebi mocemulia cxrilSi 8.30.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
258
oTx kriteriums aqvs ganzomileba (ekonomikuri mniSvneloba (fuli), CO2 –s gamoyofa, potenciuri Semosavali eqsportirebuli eleqtroenergiidan). sxva
oTxi kriteriumi ganzomilebis gareSea. IMP kritriumi asaxavs
eleqtroenergiis importis saWiroebas. is gansazRvrulia importirebuli
eleqtroenergiis realuri mniSvnelobebis safuZvelze. radganac igi aris
mxolod alternativaSi A2 (saSualo sididiT 911.9 gvtsT/weli), am
kriteriumis mniSvneloba gansazRvrulia formiT (0,1), sadac 0 asaxavs
SemTxvevas, roca ar xdeba eleqtroenergiis importi (an importi mcirea), da 1
asaxavs didi raodenobiT eleqtroenergiis importis saWiroebas. sxva sami
uganzomilebo kriteriumebi ganisazRvrebian (ranJirebas ganicdian) detaluri
gamokvlevis Semdeg, rogorc es adre iyo aRwerili: [1-10] skalaze
energousafrTxoebis SemTxvevaSi, [2-6] socialuri zemoqmedebis SemTxvevaSi da
[2-7] garemoze zemoqmedebis SemTxvevaSi. faqts, rom kriteriumebis umetesoba
sruliad obieqturia (realuri sidideebi) mivyavarT mravalkriteriumiani
ranJirebis Sedegebis did saimedoobaze.
cxrili 8.30: kriteriumebis mniSvnelobebi sxvadasxva alternativebis
SemTxvevaSi da eqstremizaciis funqcia
kriteriumebi
NPV OPCOST IMP CO2 REL ECO SOC PREValternativa
mil. US$ mil. US$ - 1000 t - - - mil. US$
B (sabazo) 2109 1673 0 20304 4.2 2.7 3 245
A1r 2224 1642 0 22671 4.7 3.7 4 274A2 1734 1233 1 9630 8 6 3 163A3 2156 1895 0 26675 1 7 6 173A4 2201 1709 0 21396 3.7 5.8 4 259A5 2132 1674 0 20490 4.1 4.8 5 243A6 1990 1614 0 45259 3 2 2 173
eqstr. funq. min min min min max max max max
oTx kriteriums aqvs ganzomileba (ekonomikuri mniSvneloba (fuli), CO2 –s gamoyofa, potenciuri Semosavali eqsportirebuli eleqtroenergiidan). sxva
oTxi kriteriumi ganzomilebis gareSea. IMP kritriumi asaxavs
eleqtroenergiis importis saWiroebas. is gansazRvrulia importirebuli
eleqtroenergiis realuri mniSvnelobebis safuZvelze. radganac igi aris
mxolod alternativaSi A2 (saSualo sididiT 911.9 gvtsT/weli), am
kriteriumis mniSvneloba gansazRvrulia formiT (0,1), sadac 0 asaxavs
Semtxvevas, roca ar xdeba eleqtroenergiis importi (an importi mcirea), da 1
asaxavs didi raodenobiT eleqtroenergiis importis saWiroebas. sxva sami
uganzomilebo kriteriumebi ganisazRvrebian (RanJirebas ganicdian) detaluri
gamokvlevis Semdeg, rogorc es adre iyo aRwerili: [1-10] skalaze
energousafrTxoebis SemTxvevaSi, [2-6] socialuri zemoqmedebis SemTxvevaSi da
[2-7] garemoze zemoqmedebis SemTxvevaSi. faqts, rom kriteriumebis umetesoba
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
259
sruliad obieqturia (realuri sidideebi) mivyavarT mravalkriteriumiani
ranJirebis Sedegebis did saimedoobaze.
mravalkriteriumiani ranJirebis procesis mniSvnelovani safexuria TiToeuli
kriteriumisaTvis woniTi koeficientebis gansazRvra. es yovelTvis
xorcieldeba sxvadasxva woniTi koeficientebis erTobliobebis ganmartebiT.
pirveli da Zalian mniSvnelovani ranJirebis varianti aris SemTxveva, rova
yvela varianti Tavisi mniSvnelobiT erTnairia – aqvT erTidaigive wona. es
ranJireba aRiniSneba rogorc R1 da Sedegebi mocemulia cxrilSi 8.31.
mogvianebiT, ranJireba ganxorcielda sxvadasxva woniTi koeficientebiT.
zogierT ranJirebaSi ufro didi mniSvneloba mieniWa ekologiur kriteriums
(R2 da R4). gansakuTebuli mniSvneloba agreTve mieniWa CO2 gamoyofas, rogorc
saTburi gazs (ranJirebis procesis dros iwodeboda rogorc “kiotos
varianti”). zogierT ranJirebaSi ufro meti mniSvneloba mieniWa fulTan
dakavSirebul kriteriumebs (ranJireba R3). R5 ranJireba ufro did
mniSvnelobas aniWebs sistemis energousafrTxoebis kriteriums sawvavis
bazarze gaurkvevlobis pirobebSi, roca bunebrivi airis da qvanaxSiris
importi da eqsporti garTulebulia.
ranJirebis procesSi Sesdrulda 20-ze meti sxvadasxva ranJireba, sxvadasxva
woniTi koeficientebiT (w) da zogierT alternativaSi kriteriumis Secvlili
koeficientebiT (gansakuTrebiT Semowmda mgrZnobiaroba kriteriumis Zalian
did da Zalian mcire mniSvnelobebisadmi). yvelaze mniSvnelovani iyo
alternativebis ranJireba kkompromisuli ranJirebis siiT, im faqtis gamo, rom
kompromisuli gadawyvetileba yvelaze axlosaa “idealurTan” (kompromisuli
ranJirebis siis detaluri axsna mocemulia meTodologiis aRweraSi). es
Sedegebi mocemulia cxrilSi 8.24. magram, Sedegebis stabilurobis gansazRvris
mizniT gaanalizda minmaqs strategiis (idealuri wertilidan udidesi
gadaxris minimumi) da kriteriumTa umetesobis dakmayofilebis strategiis
(udidesi jgufuri sargeblis kriteriumi) ranJirebis siebic.
gadawyvetilebis misaRebad arCul iqna xuTi yvelaze mniSvnelovani ranJirebis
scenari, kriteriumebis sxvadasxva woniTi koeficientebiT, da maTi Sedegebi
mocemulia cxrilSi 8.31.
cxrili 8.31. mravalkriteriumiani ranJirebis Sedegebi woniTi koeficientebis
sxvadasxva jgufebisaTvis, kompromisuli ranJirebis siis mixedviT (yvelaze
meti upiratesobis mqone aalternativebi gamuqebulia)
kriteriumebis woniTi koeficientebi rangi NPV OPC IMP CO2 REL ECO SOC PREV ranJirebis sia
R1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 A5 B,A4,A2,A1r,A3,A6
R2 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 A2,A5,A4 A1r,A3,B,A6
R3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 A5,B A4,A2,A1r,A6,A3
R4 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 1 A5,A4,A2 A1r,A3,B,A6
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
260
R5 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 A5,A4,A2 A1r,B,A3,A6
mravalkriteriumiani ranJirebis procesSi Sedegebma migviyvanes garkveuli
wesebis arsebobamde. gadawyvetilebis mimRebTaTvis Semdegi daskvnebi
gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovania:
SesaZlebelia alternatiebis ori jgufis gamoyofa: (a) is
alternativebi, romelTa umetesoba gaanalizirebuli ranJirebis
procesebSi saukeTesoni iyvnen, da romlebic ranJirebis siis saTaveSi
iyvnen ganTavsebulni da damokidebulni iyvnen mxolod kriteriumebis
woniT koeficientebze. es alternativebia A5 (5 cali gazze momuSave
Tbosadguri, namaxvanis kaskadi da faravnis hesi), A2 (namaxvani, xudoni, faravanis hesi da didi raodenobiT eleqtroenergiis importi) da A4 (5 cali gazze momuSave Tbosadguri, xudoni da faravanis hesi). (b) is
alternativebi, romlebic umetesoba gaanalizirebuli ranJirebis
procesebSi ganTavsebulni iyvnen siis bolo or adgilas: A6 (qvanaxSiris
Tbosadguri) – rogorc wesi ranJirebis siis bolo adgilzea da
alternativa A3 (mxolod gazze momuSave Tbosadgurebi).
adre moyvanili daskvna alternativebis dajgufebis Sesaxeb stabiluri
iyo yvela samive ranJirebis strategiisaTvis: kompromisuli ranJirebis
siisaTvis – yvelaze mniSvnelovani gadawyvetilebis mimRebTaTvis, minmaqs
strategiisavis da strategiisaTvis, romelic akmayofilebs
kriteriumebis umetesobas. icvleboda mxolod alternativebis pozicia
ranJirebis siaSi, magram isini yovelTvis ekuTvnodnen aRweril jgufs.
erTnairi woniTi koeficientebis (R1) SemTxvevaSi alternativa A5 (5
gazze momuSave Tbosadguri, namaxvanis hesi da faravnis hesi) pirvel
adgilzea kompromisuli ranJirebis siaSi da minmaqs strategiis dros,
maSin roca is meore adgilzea (A2 Semdeg) kriteriumebis umetesobis
damakmayofilebeli strategiis mixedviT.
im SemTxvevaSi, roca CO2 gamoyofas ufro didi mniSvneloba eniWeba
(kiotos protokolis Tanaxmad) da woniTi koeficientia w=3, xolo
sxva garemoze zemoqmedebis kriteriumi (ENV) Sewonilia koeficinetiT
w=2 (R2 ranJireba) alternativa A2 adis pirvel poziciaze da mas
mohyveba alternativebi A5 da A4. A2 alternativas ar gaaCnia sakmarisi
upiratesoba or sxva alternativasTan SedarebiT da amgvarad samive
erTad gamoyofilia sxvebisagan kompromisul ranJirebis siaSi. es sami
alternativa ar mdebareobs pirvel poziciaze yvela sam ranJirebis
siaSi. es aris stabiluri gadawyvetileba, radganac igive Sedegebi
(ranJirebis siebi) miiReba Tu CO2 –s woniTi koeficienti icvleba
sididiT w=2. roca udidesi mniSvneloba eniWeba garemoze zemoqmedebis da socialur
kriteriumebs (R4 da R5) Sedegebi igive rCeba, rac iyo R2 ranJirebis
SemTxvevaSi, mxolod icvleba alternativebis dakavebuli adgilebi:
alternativa A5 aris pirvel adgilze, romelsac mohyveba alternativebi
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
261
A4 da A2. ranJirebis siebi scenarebisTvis R2 da R5 sakmaod logikuria da
mosalodneli iyo, rom alternativebi, romlic Seicaven CO2 maRal
gamosxivebas nakleb Sefasebas iReben, xolo hesebi ufro win dganan am
SemTxvevaSi.
erTaderTi SemTxveva, roca alternativa A6 (qvanaxSirze momuSave
Tbosadguri) ar aris bolo poziciaze (magram amave dros ar imyofeba
pirvel sameuls Soris) kompromisul ranJirebis siaSi, aris SemTxveva,
roca ufro didi mniSvneloba eniWeba fulis kriteriums: srul
investicias (NPV), mTlian wminda mimdinare Rirebulebas (COS), eleqtroenergiis imports da eqsports (IMP da PREV Sesabamisad).
aseTi scenari sainteresoa bankebis poziciidan. am scenarSi (ranJireba
R3) alternativebi A5 da B arian kompromisuli ranJirebis siis pirvel
or poziciaze.
gaanalizirebuli scenarebis safuZvelze SeiZleba Camoyalibdes Semdegi
daskvnebi, romlebic mniSvnelovania gadawyvetilebis mimRebTaTvis:
alternativebi A6 (mxolod naxSirze momuSave Tbosadgurebi) da A3 (mxolod axali gazze momuSave sadgurebi) unda gamoiricxon da ar
unda monawileobdnen gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesSi, radganac isini
TiTqmis yvela scenarSi bolo adgilze imyofebian.
alternativa A2 (mxolod axali hesebi) saukeTesoa scenarebSi, roca
garemoze zemoqmedebis kriteriumebs didi mniSvneloba eniWebaT (R2). scenarebSi, roca fuls eniWeba didi mniSvneloba (R3) alternativa B (sabazo) (4 gazze momuSave Tbosadguri da yvela axali hesebi)
warmoadgens saukeTeso kompromisuli gadawyvetilebis erTobliobas,
magram mxolod alternativa A5–s Semdeg. yvela warmodgenil ranJirebaSi alternativa A1R (romelic moicavs
mcire hesebs da qaris sadgurebs) ranJirebiT dgas A5, A4 da A2 -didi hesebis alternativebis Semdeg.
aRwerili Sedegebi (daskvnebi) stabiluria woniTi koeficientebis
cvlilebis mimarT, iseve rogorc REL, ENV da SOC kriteriumebis mniSvnelobebis cvlilebis mimarT. Catarda sxvadasxva ranJireba
(realurad Secvlili koeficientebisaTvis) da alternativebi A5, A4 daA2 umetes ranJirebebSi pirvel poziciebze imyofebian, icvleba mxolod
poziciebi erTmaneTuis mimarT kompromisul ranJirebis siaSi.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
262
9. daskvnebi
am kvlevaSi gaanalizirebuli SesaZlo variantebi, romlebmac SeiZleba
uzrunvelyon saqarTvelos energosistemis saimedo momarageba, mdgomareobs
SemdegSi:
gazis kombinirebuli ciklis 150mgvt simZlavris sadgurebi
didi hidrosadgurebi (xudoni, faravani da namaxvanis kaskadi)
importirebul da adgilobriv qvanaxSirze momuSave 300mgvt simZlavris
sadgurebi.
sxvadasxva zomis atomuri eleqtrosadgurebi
ganaxlebadi energiis wyaroebi, romelsic Sedis mcire 50mgvt-ze naklebi
simZlavris hidrosagurebi, qaris sadgurebi, geoTermul da biomasebze
momuSave eleqtrosadgurebi.
eleqtroenergiis importi zamTris periodSi da hidrosadgurebze
generirebuli Warbi eleqtroenergiis eqsporti zafxulis periodSi.
generaciis gafarToebis umciresi danaxarjebis dagegmvis meTodis ZiriTadi
Sedegebi miRebulia eleqtroenergiaze sabaziso moTxovnilebis prognozisaTvis
(3% saSualo zrda dagegmvis mTeli periodis ganmavlobaSi) da airis fasze
sabaziso daSvebebis (230 US$/1000m3) gaTvaliswinebiT. mgrZnoabiarobis
analizi Catarda eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis ori eqstremaluri
prognozis SemTxvevaSi – dabali (2.5% saSualo zrda) da maRali (5%
saSualo zrda) da aseve gazis Rirebulebis ori eqstremaluri daSvebisaTvis
– dabali (147 US$/1000m3) da maRali (611 US$/1000m3).
yvelaze mimzidveli proeqtebis teqnikuri da ekeonomikuri maxasiaTebelebis
mxedvelobaSi miRebis Sedegad, dagenerirda da analizi gaukeTda ganviTarebis
winaswari Sefaseba efuZneba yvela SesaZlo variantis teqnikur da ekonomikur
maxasiaTeblebs da iZleva saqarTvelos energosistemis mizanSewonili da yvelaze
imedismomcemi gansaxorcielebeli proeqtebis sias:
gazis kombinirebuli ciklis 150mgvt simZlavris sadgurebi
didi hidrosadgurebi (xudoni, faravani da namaxvanis kaskadi)
importirebul qvanaxSirze momuSave 300mgvt simZlavris sadgurebi.
ganaxlebadi energiis wyaroebi, romelsic Sedis mcire 50mgvt-ze
naklebi simZlavris hidrosagurebi da qaris sadgurebi 495mgvt 2021
wels; da
eleqtroenergiis importi zamTris periodSi da hidrosadgurebze
generirebuli Warbi eleqtroenergiis eqsporti zafxulis periodSi.
es proeqtebi Sefasda garemoze zemoqmedebis da socialuri aspeqtebis
TvalsazrisiT da Sefasebis Sedegebi moyvanilia cxrilSi 9.1.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
263
mraval sxvadasxva alternativas saimedo da umciresi Rirebulebis
eleqtroenergiis mowodebis TvalsazrisiT, saqarTveloSi 2007-2021 wlebSi
eleqtroenergiaze prognozirebuli moTxovnebis Sesabamisad. rogorc am
analizis Sedegi, generaciis TiToeuli alternativisaTvis miRebul iqna
ZiriTadi teqnikuri da ekonomikuri indeqsebi. amas garda, yvelaze mimzidveli
proeqtebis SemTxvevaSi garemoze zemoqmedebis da socialuri aspeqtebis
Catarebuli Sefaseba warmoadgenda safuZvels ganviTarebis alternativebis
garemosdacviTi da socialuri indeqsebis gansazRvrisaTvis.
yvela es indeqsi (rogorc mocemulia cxrilSi 9.2) gamouenebul iqna
alternativebis intergrirebuli SefasebisTvis, romlis drosac arCeuli
alternativisaTvis mxedvelobaSi iqna miRebuli ekonomikuri, garemosdacviTi
da socialuri aspeqtebi.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
264
cxrili 9.1 kandidati proeqtebis Sejamebuli maxasiaTeblebi
gazi
150mgvt
importir.
naxSiri
300mgvt
xudonhesi namaxvanis
kaskadi
faravani
hesi
mcire hesebi
10mgvt-ze
naklebi
mcire
hesebi 10-
50mgvt
Soris
qaris
sadgurebi
sadguris
simZlavre (mgvt) 144 274 638 450 123 5 25 9
saSualo
generacia
(gvtsT)
1328 1568 440 22 99 27
kapitaluri
danaxarji
(mil.US$) 150 428 604 641 113 15 67.5 14.4
kapitaluri
danaxarji
(US$/kv) 1042 1562 947 1424 919 3000 2700 1600
mSeneblobis
periodi (weli) 3 4 5 4/5/4 3 2 3 2
SesaZlo
gaSvebis weli 2011 2011 2013 2013 2013 2011 2011 2011
zemoqmedebis
qveS myofi
farTobi
ugulebel
sayofi
mcire
uaryofiTi
mcire
uaryofiTi
mniSvnelovna
d uaryofiTi
ugulebels
ayofiugulebelsayofi
ugulebelsay
ofi
klimatis
cvlilebaze
zemoqmedeba
mcire
uaryofiT
i
mcire
uaryofiTi
ugulebels
ayofi
ugulebelsay
ofi
ugulebels
ayofiugulebelsayofi
ugulebelsay
ofi
haeris
dabinZurebaze
zemoqmedeba
mcire
uaryofiTi
mniSvnelovna
d uaryofiTi
ugulebels
ayofi
ugulebelsay
ofi
ugulebels
ayofiugulebelsayofi
ugulebelsay
ofi
hidrologiur
reJimebze
zemoqmedeba
ugulebe
lsayofi
ugulebelsay
ofi
mcire
uaryofiTi
mcire
uaryofiTi
ugulebels
ayofimcire uaryofiTi
ugulebelsay
ofi
wylis xarisxze
zemoqmedeba
mcire
uaryofiTi
mniSvnelovna
d uaryofiTi
mcire
uaryofiTi
mcire
uaryofiTi
ugulebels
ayofiugulebelsayofi
ugulebelsay
ofi
vegetaciaze
zemoqmedeba
mcire
uaryofiT
i
mcire
uaryofiTi
ugulebels
ayofi
ugulebelsay
ofi
ugulebels
ayofiugulebelsayofi
ugulebelsay
ofi
faunaze
zemoqmedeba
mcire
uaryofiT
i
mcire
uaryofiTi
mcire
uaryofiTi
mcire
uaryofiTi
ugulebels
ayofiugulebelsayofi
mniSvnelovna
d uaryofiTi
landsaftze
zemoqmedeba
ugulebel
sayofi
mniSvnelovna
d uaryofiTi
ugulebels
ayofi
ugulebelsay
ofi
ugulebels
ayofiugulebelsayofi
mcire
uaryofiTi
energiis
wyaroebis
ganaxlebadoba
ara ara diax diax diax diax diax
mosaxleobis
gadasaxlebaze
zemoqmedeba
ugulebe
lsayofi
ugulebelsay
ofi
mniSvnelov
nad
uaryofiTi
mcire
uaryofiTi
ugulebels
ayofiugulebelsayofi
ugulebelsay
ofi
sof. meurneobis
warmoebaze
zemoqmedeba
ugulebe
lsayofi
mcire
uaryofiTi
ugulebels
ayofi
mcire
uaryofiTi
ugulebels
ayofiugulebelsayofi
ugulebelsay
ofi
satransporto
infrastruqtur
aze zemoqmedeba
ugulebe
lsayofi
ugulebelsay
ofi
mcire
dadebiTi
ugulebelsay
ofi
ugulebels
ayofiugulebelsayofi
ugulebelsay
ofi
rekreaciasa da
turizmze
zemoqmedeba
ugulebe
lsayofi
mniSvnelovna
d uaryofiTi
mcire
dadebiTi
mniSvnelovna
d dadebiTi
ugulebels
ayofiugulebelsayofi
mcire
uaryofiTi
mosaxleobis
janmrTelobaze
zemoqmedeba
ugulebe
lsayofi
mcire
uaryofiTi
ugulebels
ayofi
ugulebelsay
ofi
ugulebels
ayofiugulebelsayofi
ugulebelsay
ofi
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
265
cxrili 9.2. SerCeuli ganviTarebis alternativebis Sejamebuli
intergirebuli maxasiaTeblebi
B A1R A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 SezRuduli
importi
ganaxlebadi importis
alternati
va
mxolod gazi mxolod
xudonhesi
mxolod
namaxvanis
kaskadi
mxolod
naxSiri
komb. cikl.
gaz-turbina
150 mgvt
xudonhesi 638 mgvt
namaxvanis
kaskadi
450 mgvt
faravani hesi 120 mgvt
naxSiri 300 mgvt
ganaxlebadi 495 mgvt
NPV (mil.US$) 2109 2224 1734 2156 2201 2132 1990
saoperacio
xarjebi (mil.US$) 1673 1642 1233 1895 1709 1674 1614
PREV (mil.US$) 245 274 163 173 259 244 173
CO2gamosxiveba (1000t) 20304 22671 9630 26675 21396 20490 45259
eleqtroenerg
iis importi mcire mcireZalian
didi mcire mcire mcire mcire
energousafrT
xoebis rangi
1-umcires
8-udidesi
4.2 4.7 8 1 3.7 4.1 3
jamuri
dadebiTi
garemoze
zemoqmedeba
2- umcires
7- udidesi
2.7 3.7 6 7 5.8 4.8 2
jamuri
dadebiTi
socialuri
zegavlena
2- umcires
6- udidesi
3 4 3 6 4 5 2
kargi
dadebiTi
Sualeduri
cudi
mavnebeli
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
266
9.2 cxrilis moyvanili indeqsebis safuZvelze konsultantma Caatara
mravalkriteriumiani ranJireba 7 amorCeuli alternativis SemTxvevaSi da
mxedvelobaSi miiRo ekonomikuri, garemoze zemoqmedebis da socialuri
kriteriumebi TiToeuli alternativisaTvis; aseve zogierTi kriteriumisaTvis
gamoiyena sxvadasxva woniTi koeficientebi. Sejamebuli Sedegebi mocemulia
cxrilSi 9.3.
cxrili 9.3 mravalkriteriumiani ranJirebis Sedegebi woniTi koeficientebis
sxvadasxva jgufebisaTvis, kompromisuli ranJirebis siis micedviT (yvelaze
meti upiratesobis mqone aalternativebi gamuqebulia)
kriteriumebis woniTi koeficientebi rangi NPV OPC IMP CO2 REL ECO SOC PREV ranJirebis sia
R1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 A5 B,A4,A2,A1r,A3,A6
R2 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 A2,A5,A4 A1r,A3,B,A6
R3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 A5,B A4,A2,A1r,A6,A3
R4 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 1 A5,A4,A2 A1r,A3,B,A6
R5 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 A5,A4,A2 A1r,B,A3,A6
gaanalizirebul alternativebze dayrdnobiT SeiZleba gavakeToT Semdegi
Sejameba:
amJamad saqarTveloSi eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebaa pikuri
datvirTvisas 1591gvt da wliuri moxmarebaa 8167mgvtsT. igi gaizrdeba
pikSi 2248-dan 3150mgvt-mde xolo wliuri moxmareba iqneba 11540-dan
16170 gvtsT SualedSi.
amjamad sruli moxmarebis 70%-ze meti ifareba
hidroeleqtrosadgurebidan. arsebobs hidroenergiis Zalian didi
potenciali, romelic SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnas hidrosadgurebis
aSenebiT, romelTa simZlavre iqneba 0.1mgvt-dan 100mgvt-ze meti. aseve
arsebobs sxva ganaxlebadi wyaroebis mniSvnelovani potenciali, magram
hesebis Semdeg yvelaze mimzidvelia qaris sadgurebi.
cvalebadi hidrologiis gamo, zamTris Tveebis periodSi hidroenergiis
genracia Zlier SezRudulia da Warbi energiis generacias aqvs adgili
zafxulis TveebSi. es qmnis zamTarSi eleqtroenergiis importis
saWiroebas.
eleqtroenergiis garda saqarTvelo eweva bunebrivi airis imports,
romelic amJamad gamoiyeneba eleqtroenergiis generaciisaTvis arsebul
Tbosadgurebze. bunebrivi airis garda, momavalSi asaSenebeli
Tbosadgurebi SeiZleba iyvnen qvanaxSirze momuSaveni, romlebic
gamoiyeneben importirebul da adgilobriv qvanaxSirs. arsebobs
qvanaxSiris maragebi (ZiriTadad tyibuli-Saoris maRaroebi), magram
amJamad mopoveba imdenad ar aris ganviTarebuli, rom uzrunvelyos
300mgvt TbosadurisaTvis saWiro raodenobis qvanaxSiris miwodeba.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
267
gegmebSi, romlebic moicaven adgilobriv qvanaxSirze momuSave
Tbosadgurebis mSeneblobas, frTxilad unda iqnas gaanalizirebuli
sawvavis mowodebis sakiTxebi.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
268
naxazi 9-1. kandidati proeqtebi
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
269
saqarTvelos energosistemisaTvis Semdgomi 15 wlis ganmavlobaSi
yvelaze imedismomcemi proeqtebis (ix naxazi 9-1) da ganviTarebis
alternativebis integrirebuli Sefasebis Sedegad, SeiZleba davaskvnaT:
alternativebi, romlebic moicaven mxolod gazze an qvanaxSirze
momuSave Tbosadgurebis mSeneblobas yvelaze dabal poziciaze
dganan SerCeul alternativebs Soris.
ganviTarebis yvela alternativa, romelic moicavs
hidrosadgurebs gulisxmobs faravnis hesis mSeneblobas, rogorc
pirveli sadgurisa, romelic unda gaeSvas 2013 wels.
im alternativebis ganviTareba, romelic gulisxmobs namaxvanis
kaskadis CarTvas saqarTvelos energosistemaSi 2013-2015 wlebSi
(aalternativa 5) warmoadgens yvelaze stabilur alternativas,
radganac ranJirebis yvela scenarSi is Sedis saukeTeso
alternativebis jgufSi (pirvel an meore poziciaze ranJirebis
yvela siaSi)
ganviTarebis im alternativebis rangi, romlebic moicaven
xudonhesis CarTvas saqarTvelos energosistemaSi 2013 wels
(alternativa 4) analogiuria alternativa 5-is rangisa, magram
cota ufro dabalia TiTqmis yvela ranJirebis siaSi, ZiriTadad
imitom, rom gaaCnia cotaTi naklebi ekonomikuri maxasiaTeblebi
alternativa 5-Tan SedarebiT.
ganviTarebis alternativebi, romelic gulisxmobs yvela
gaanalizirebuli hidrosadguris CarTvas saqarTvelos
energosistemaSi 2013-2015 wels da eleqtroenergiis intensiur
gacvlas mezobel qveynebTan (alternativa 2) warmoadgens
saukeTeso ganviTarebis alternativas, roca garemoze zemoqmedebis
da socialurs kriteriumebs did mniSvneloba eniWebaT.
ranJirebis scenarebSi, roca ekonomikur, finansur da aseve
saimedoobis da energomomaragebis kritetiumebs did mniSvneloba
eniWebaT, ganviTarebis alternativa, romelic moicavs mxolod
namaxvanis kaskadis mSeneblobas (alternativa 5) kvlav
saukeTesoa, magram mniSvnelovani upiratesobis gareSe im
alternativTan SedarebiT, romelic gulisxmobs gazze momuSave
Tbosadgurebis mSeneblobas da gaanalizirebuli hidrosadgurebis
TandaTanobiT CarTvas saqarTvelos energosistemaSi 2013-2020
wlebSi (ssabazo), romelic imyofeba kompromisuli ranJirebis siis
meore adgilze.
ganviTarebis alternativas (aalternativa 1 ganaxlebadi), romelic
moicavs mcire hesebis da qaris sadgurebis proeqtebis
TandaTanobiT ganxorcielebas weliwadSi 44mgvt simZlavriT 2015
wlamde periodSi da weliwadSi 55mgvt simZlavriT 2015 wlis
Semdeg, dasWirdeba Zlieri mxardaWera mTavrobis da sxva
Sesabamisi institutebis mxridan im mizniT, rom moxdes aseTi
proeqtebis ekonomikuri Sefasebis gakeTeba. dainteresebisa da am
proeqtebis specialuri statusis gareSe, ganaxlebadi proeqtebi
ganviTarebis alternativebi, romelic gulisxmobs yvela
gaanalizirebuli hidrosadguris CarTvas saqarTvelos
energosistemaSi 2013-2015 wels da eleqtroenergiis intensiur
gacvlas mezobel qveynebTan (alternativa 2) warmoadgens
saukeTeso ganviTarebis alternativas, roca garemoze zemoqmedebis
da socialurs kriteriumebs did mniSvneloba eniWebaT.
ganviTarebis im alternativebis rangi, romlebic moicaven
xudonhesis CarTvas saqarTvelos energosistemaSi 2013 wels
(alternativa 4) analogiuria alternativa 5-is rangisa, magram
cota ufro dabalia TiTqmis yvela ranJirebis siaSi, ZiriTadad
imitom, rom gaaCnia cotaTi naklebi ekonomikuri maxasiaTeblebi
alternativa 5-Tan SedarebiT.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
270
Znelad ipovian Tavis adgils saqarTvelos energosistemis
momaval ganviTarebaSi.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
271
10. riskebis Sefaseba
generaciis ganviTarebis warmodgenili gegmebi da saqarTvelos energosistemis
eleqtroenergiiT momaragebis strategiuli grZelvadiani politika moicavs
Semdeg upiratesobebs: energosistemis eleqtrousafrTxoebas, ekonomikur
efeqturobas da garemoze zemoqmedebis da socialur usafrTxoebis sakiTxebs.
cxadia, rom am Zlier mniSvnelovani
daSvebebis cvlilebebs mivyavarT
generaciis gafarToebis sxvadasxva
gegmebTan da ganviTarebis sxvadasxva
strategiul gadawyvetilebebTan.
Catarda ganviTarebis sxvadasxva
daSvebebis mgrZnobiaribis analizi im
mizniT, rom Seswavliliyo
mniSvnelovani daSvebebis mosalodnel
farglebSi cvlilebebis SesaZlo
zegavlenebi.
Cven gvjera, rom am kvlevaSi mocemuli
ganviTarebis gegmebi unda gadaixedos da
Seswordes yovel or weliwadSi.
yoveli Sesworebisas mxedvelobaSi unda
iqna miRebuli is qmedebebi, romelic
ganxorcielda gasul periodSi (mag.
axali sadgurebis detaluri Seswavlis
Sedegebi, reabilitaciis gegmebi,
proeqtis kontraqtebi, SesaZlo axali
kandidati proeqtebi).
eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebi
prognozi agreTve unda ganaxldes
yovel or weliwadSi. roca Catardeba
ufro detaluri kvleva, Sedegebi warmodgenili unda iqnas maTi Sedarebis
mizniT.
unda warmoebdes momavali proeqtebis aRwera da Tanmxlevi monacemebis
Segroveba sxva saWiro informaciasTan erTad, rom isini Setanil iqnas
kandidati proeqtebis siaSi. aRwera unda ganaxldes proeqtebis Sesaxeb
damatebiTi informaciiT, rogorc ki maTi mopoveba SesaZlebeli gaxdeba.
saqarTvelos energosistemis momaval ganviTarebas mxardaWera unda hqondes
iuridiuli da maregulirebeli kanonmdeblobis gaumjobesebiT.
strategiuli gadawyvetilebani efuZneba
iseTi mniSvnelovani daSvebebis
erTobliobas, rogoricaa:
eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnilebis
prognozi 2007-2021 wlebSi,
nagulisxmevi wliuri nazrdiT 3%
(sabazo moTxovnileba);
import/esqportis fasi 35US$/mgvtsT doneze; bunebrivi airis fasi 230 US$/1000m3 doneze; garemoze zemoqmedebis da
socialuri zegavlenebis Sefaseba
sxvadasxva alternativebisaTvis;
gansazRvruli misaRebi zomebi
garemoze zemoqmedebis da
socialuri zegavlenis
Sesamsubuqeblad; da
maRali Zabvis gadamcemi qselis
gaZliereba rogorc es iyo
wamoyenebuli winaswar momzadebul
dokumentaciaSi.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
272
saWiroa monitoringi gakeTdes im ZiriTadi maxasiaTeblebisa, romlebsac
SeuZliaT mogvcen signali energosistemis ganviTarebis gegmebis cvlilebebis
Sesaxeb:
rogorc mimoxilvis Semadgeneli nawili da sainvesticio gegmis
ganaxleba - angariSi datvirTvis-resursebis mdgomareobis Sesaxeb, raTa
dadgindes xom ar moiTxovs sainvesticio procesi aCqarebas an
Senelebas.
garemosdacviTi RonisZiebebis ganxorcielebis monitoringi da am
RoniZiebaTa xarjebi – imisTvis rom dadgindes ZalaSia Tu ara
gamoyenebuli daSvebebi, romelic SesaZlebelia Seicvalos zemoqmedebis
Seamasubuqebeli teqnikis ganviTarebis gamo.
sawvavis mowodebis riskebi (SesaZlebloba, fasebi)
qmedebebi, romelsac saqarTvelo amJamad anxorcielebs da ganaxorcielebs
momavali ori-sami wlis manZilze gansazRvravs energosistemis sainvesticio
gegmis warmatebas. mravali da xSirxSirad Catarebuli, iaffasiani Seswavlebi
Seamcireben gaurkvevlobebiT gamowveul riskebs, da gaaumjobeseben rogorc
axlo momavlis, ise grZelvadiani dagegmvis Sedegebs.
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
273
lliteratura:
saqarTvelos energosistemis wliuri angariSi 2005, ,
saqarTvelos qaris energiis atlasi, tomi 1, raionuli Sefasebebi,
qarenenero, 2004
saqarTvelos geoTermuli potencili 1997w.
xudonis garemoze da socialuri zemoqmedebebis Sefaseba, winaswari da
socialuri SerCeva, Sualeduri angariSi da angariSis proeqti, BRL, 2007w oqtomberi-noemberi
saqarTvelos energetikis saministos mrCevelis daxmareba: angariSis
proeqti: xudonis hidroeleqtrosadguris
Sefasebiswina mimoxilva, 30 ivnisi, 2005w., versia 3.0 (USAID dafinansebiT, CORE International – konsultanti)
saqarTvelos energetikis saministos mrCevelis daxmareba: xudonis
hidroeleqtrosadguris Sefasebiswina mimoxilvis
damateba, 27 ivnisi, 2005, proeqti versia 1.2
xudonhesis danarTebi (ruqebi, naxazebi, suraTebi, daskanirebuli
dokumentebi da sxva)
regionaluri eleqtroenergiis gadamcemi sistemis
gafarToebis gegma kavkasiis qveynebisaTvis, meore Sualeduri
angariSi, 2007 wlis aprili, tomi 1- teqsti + damatebebi paragrafebi 6
– 8, Fichtner, germania;
2007 wlis aprilisa da maisis dRiuri eleqtruli balansebi
arsebuli hidrosadgurebis sia ZiriTadi naxazebiT (dasaxeleba,
simZlavre, dadgmuli simZlavre, gaSvebis weli, mflobeloba)
saqarTveloSi maRali Zabvis gadamcemi xzebis mSeneblobis
gaTvaliswinebuli proeqtebi
energetikuli politika saqarTveloSi, prezentacia, 2007
namaxvanis kaskadi hisdorsadgurebi, prezentacia, kuveiti, 2007 wlis 18
Tebervali
saqarTvelos kanoni eleqtroenergetikis inJineriisa
da bunebrivi airis Sesaxeb
saqarTvelos saxelmwifo energetikuli politikis
ZiriTadi mimarTulebebi (proeqti)
saqarTvelos parlamentis rezolucia saxelmwifo politikis ZiriTadi
mimarTulebebis Sesaxeb saqarTvelos energetikis seqtorSi, inglisurad,
33 gverdi
saqarTvelos energoseqtoris strategiuli samoqmedo gegma 2005-2008,
inglisurad
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
274
saqarTvelos energoseqtoris “energetikuli balansi”:
nawili 1, analizi da winadadebebi
saqarTvelos energoseqtoris “energetikuli balansi”:
nawili 2, balansebi 1960 wlidan 2006 wlamde
saqarTvelos energetikuli balansi 2007-2017 - inglisurad
qveynis eleqtrosimZlavris balansi 2006-2015
bunebrivi gazis strategia saqarTvelosaTvis – nawili 1: analizi da
winadadebani – maisi, 2006
bunebrivi gazis strategia saqarTvelosaTvis – nawili 2: ekomomikuri da
geografiuli konteqsti - maisi, 2006, gv. 1-35
bunebrivi gazis strategia saqarTvelosaTvis – nawili 2: ekomomikuri da
geografiuli konteqsti - maisi, 2006, gv. 36-85
bunebrivi gazis strategia saqarTvelosaTvis – nawili 2: danarTi C - maisi,
2006
500kv gadamcemi xazis wina-SefasebiTi mimoxilva – samxreT saqarTvelo. versia
2.0 – 15 ivlisi, 2006. gv. 1-28
500kv gadamcemi xazis wina-SefasebiTi mimoxilva – samxreT saqarTvelo. versia
2.0 – 15 ivlisi, 2006. gv. 29-67
sainvesticio proeqtebis mokle aRwera, energetikis saministros
veb-gverdi
saqarTvelos energosistemis mTavari generaciis sadgurebi, energetikis
saministros veb-gverdi
xudonis hesis mSenebloba mdinare engurze, energetikis
saministros veb-gverdi
saqarTvelos, somxeTis da azerbaijanis wylebis xarisxebi
OECD Part I – 35178696: Debt-for-Environment Swap in Georgia: Pre-Feasibility Study and Institutional Options OECD Part II – 36203819: Debt-for-Environment Swap in Georgia: Potential Project Pipelines for the Expenditure Programme: Part II OECD Part III – 36203835: Debt-for-Environment Swap in Georgia: BIOGAS PRODUCTION saqarTvelos kanoni garemos dacvis Sesaxeb, 1996
saqarTvelos kanoni garemosdacviTi daSvebebis Sesaxeb, 1996
saqarTvelos kanoni damoukidebeli erovnuli maregulirebeli organoebis
Sesaxeb, 2002
Sesworebebi saqarTvelos kanonSi damoukidebeli erovnuli maregulirebeli
organoebis Sesaxeb, 2003
saqarTvelos kanoni miwis wiaRiseulis Sesaxeb, 1996
saqarTvelos kanoni eleqtro inJiner-energetikis da bunebrivi gazis Sesaxeb,
proeqti moamzada DikKe Int., 2005 Development of Power Generation in SEE - Update of the Generation Investment Study, World Bank, 2006 Generation Investment Study, Wprld Bank and EC, 2005
Georgia:Strategic Environmental Assessment
of Power Sector Development Final Report
275
Djordjevic B.: Cybernetics in water resources management, Water resources Publication, Colorado, USA, 1993. Milanovic (Dasic) T: Reservoir water quality (modeling, observing, assessment), Biblioteka Academija, Zaduzbina Andrejevic, 1999 (on Serbian) Djordjevic B.: Utilization of water power, Faculty of Civil Engiineering, Belgrade, 2001. (on Serbian) Dasic T. and B. Djordjevic: Prediction and management of water quality in water storage reservoirs, International Environmental Modeling and Software Society 2002, Lugano, Switzerland, 24-27. June, 2002 Djordjevic B. and T. Dasic: Environmental improvement through active management of water resources, Montenegro academy of science and art, Podgorica, 2004. (on Serbian) Dasic T. and B. Djordjevic: Water quality observing and modeling as a mean of reservoir protection from eutrophication processes, II Kongres DVBSCG, Kladovo, 7-9 oktobar 2003. (on Serbian) Dasic T. and Djordjevic B.: Reliability of complex water resources systems, International conference Dependability and quality management, Belgrade, 2003 (on Serbian) Divac D., Nenad Grujovic and Djordjevic B.: The role and concept of a distributed hydro information system supporting integrated water management in the Drina river basin, Journal “Water Resources Management”, Vol. 1-2, Beograd, 2004. (on Serbian) Djordjevic B. and T. Dasic: Harmonization of development projects in the Drina river basin with environmental conservation requirements, Journal “Water Resources Management”, Vol. 1-2, Beograd, 2004. (on Serbian)
Trans Electrica Ltd., 2013
Rue du Lac 33, P.O. Box : + 41 21/637 15 13 : [email protected] 1020 Renens VD 1 – : + 41 21/637 15 08 : www.stucky.ch
Salini Construttori SpA
PJ/OM//AK/AW/JR /5186/4003
5186/4003-
1
55186/4003
5186/4003-
1
11.
1.1.
2009 Stucky and Colenco
. , ,
, .
. .
1.2.
2009 . . . „ “. 2012 Salini-
„ “, .
2012 2013 .
1.3.
„ “ (PoE) - -5 ,
/
. :
„ , . PoE ,
, . ,
, .
. .
“.
5186/4003-
2
:
1. ;
2. , , , ;
3. ;
4. #5 , , El 600- ;
5. ( ) ;
6. El 600- , , ,
;
7. , .
1.4.
-2 ;
-3 2009 .
4, 5, 6 7 .
1.5.
„ “ .
, UTM .
5186/4003-
3
2.
2.1.
„ “ 1980- 200.5
:
: 171.5 ( ) 27.5 6 .
: , 29 46 .
(Pulvino): ;
: , ( ). ,
.
:
„ “ / :
o 50-60 , ;
o 100-138 UCS ;
o 40-80 UCS ;
o 1 - . 10 -
, 10-12 ;
o - ( 5), 5-10 . ,
, .
, .
: 8 ( );
.
: , ,
5186/4003-
4
. , , ( ) 13,000
, 9.3 1 3- .
: , 7
, 3.45 Q10,000 = 2030 3/ .
: 1,392,000 3.
2.2. 2008 II
2008 „Stucky and Colenco“ RCC - , , ,
- III :
........................................................................................................................
......................................... 200 RCC -
.......................................................................................................... 700
...........
.............................................................................................1982
2.3. 2009 II
2009 „Stucky and Colenco“ , „ “
,
. - ,
. 2009 „ - “ .
3. 2012
Salini- „ “, ,
, 2013
5186/4003-
5
.
.
33.1.
2012 2009 II -
.
, , , ,
.
3.2.
2012 .
2013 - . 2012 , 2012
2013 - .
„ “ :
„Well3“ ( );
„Schinelli Consulting“ ( ) ( );
„ “ ( );
„Geo-Engineering“ ( ).
3.3.
HQ (76 )
.
3 ; DD2V, DD3V, DD4V
5 ; D21i, D22i, D23i, D24i, DC1-i
2 -5 ; F5-1v, F5-2i
5186/4003-
6
8 F19 ; F19-1, F19-2, F19-3 F19-4, F19-5 GT4,5,6
1 ; PI-1V
1 ; PP-1V
2 ; SP1i, SP2V
1 ; D2VR
3 ; GT1,GT2, GT3
2 B/C : GT7, GT8.
, 3-1, I- .
51
86/4
003
-
7
38
T (U
TM),
(
)
,°
, °
,
, %
38
T (U
TM),
(
)
. .
,
. .
,
1 D
D2V
r 08
.12.
2012
10
/12/
2012
26
7525
.6
4757
805.
1 54
5.45
50
42
84
%
2675
25.6
47
5780
5.1
503.
5
2 D
D2V
13
.09.
2012
26
/09/
2012
26
7538
.1
4757
804.
6 54
5.81
14
0 14
0.1
100%
2675
38.1
47
5780
4.6
405.
7
3 D
D3V
01
.11.
2012
05
/11/
2012
26
7424
.5
4757
862.
9 57
9.46
10
0 10
0.5
101%
2674
24.5
47
5786
2.9
479.
0
4 D
D4V
10
.10.
2012
21
/10/
2012
26
7266
.0
4757
944.
8 71
1.29
13
5 13
5.5
100%
2672
66.0
47
5794
4.8
575.
8
5 D
21i
06.1
1.20
12
12/1
1/20
12
2675
16.4
47
5762
0.4
640.
17
175
70
80
61
76%
2675
18.2
47
5759
9.6
582.
8
6 D
22i
19.1
1.20
12
22/1
1/20
12
2675
70.9
47
5780
8.4
546.
08
112
70
100
100.
4 10
0%
26
7602
.7
4757
795.
5 45
1.7
7 D
23i
07.1
1.20
12
11/1
1/20
12
2674
17.1
47
5787
6.8
579.
39
197
70
80
80.1
10
0%
26
7409
.1
4757
850.
6 50
4.1
8 D
24I
23.1
0.20
12
26/1
0/20
12
2672
66.5
47
5796
4.4
710.
96
270
70
80
81
101%
2672
38.8
47
5796
4.4
634.
8
9 F1
9-1i
27
.10.
2012
28
/10/
2012
26
7274
.0
4758
011.
6 70
4.29
20
5 45
40
40
.5
101%
2672
61.9
47
5798
5.6
675.
7
10
F19-
2i
13.1
1.20
12
14/1
1/20
12
2674
40.3
47
5792
2.3
579.
01
230
60
40
40.6
10
2%
26
7424
.7
4757
909.
3 54
3.8
11
F19-
3i
17.1
1.20
12
18/1
1/20
12
2675
34.0
47
5791
5.5
542.
34
230
60
40
41
103%
2675
18.3
47
5790
2.3
506.
8
12
F19-
4i
02.0
2.20
13
04/0
2/20
13
2675
44.3
47
5793
2.2
544.
04
170
55
40
40.5
10
1%
26
7548
.3
4757
909.
3 51
0.9
13
F19-
5i
09.0
2.20
13
11/0
2/20
13
2675
20.0
47
5789
3.0
538.
27
95
55
50
50.5
10
1%
26
7548
.9
4757
890.
5 49
6.9
14
DF5
-1V
11
.10.
2012
13
/10/
2012
26
7522
.2
4757
664.
0 58
7.23
40
35
88
%
26
7522
.2
4757
664.
0 55
2.2
15
DF5
-2i
18.1
0.20
12
31/1
0/20
12
2674
80.0
47
5770
8.2
589.
77
196
60
100
100
100%
2674
66.2
47
5766
0.1
503.
2
17
SP-1
i 23
.11.
2012
24
/11/
2012
26
7770
.7
4757
478.
3 65
9.74
17
5 70
60
33
55
%
26
7771
.7
4757
467.
1 62
8.7
18
SP-2
V
17.1
1.20
12
22/1
1/20
12
2675
31.2
47
5752
5.6
709.
17
100
56
56%
2675
31.2
47
5752
5.6
653.
2
16
Pi-1
V
30.1
0.20
12
31/1
0/20
12
2673
11.8
47
5808
7.8
701.
6
90
90
.5
101%
2673
11.8
47
5808
7.8
611.
1
19
DC
-1i
21.1
2.20
12
22/1
2/20
12
2675
31.0
47
5772
8.8
585.
84
95
66
60
36.2
60
%
26
7545
.7
4757
727.
5 55
2.8
20
PP-1
V
23.0
1.20
13
25/0
1/20
13
2673
03.0
47
5767
1.9
521.
43
50
50
100%
2673
03.0
47
5767
1.9
471.
4
21
GT-
1 17
.12.
2012
19
/12/
2012
26
7537
.3
4757
808.
2 54
5.68
50
50
10
0%
2675
37.3
47
5780
8.2
495.
7
22
GT-
2 10
.01.
2013
13
/01/
2013
26
7533
.7
4757
805.
7 54
5.76
50
50
10
0%
2675
33.7
47
5780
5.7
495.
8
51
86/4
003
-
8
38
T (U
TM),
(
)
,°
, °
,
, %
38
T (U
TM),
(
)
. .
,
. .
,
23
GT-
3 15
.01.
2013
17
/01/
2013
26
7537
.1
4757
806.
2 54
5.77
50
50
10
0%
2675
37.1
47
5780
6.2
495.
8
24
GT-
4 28
.01.
2013
28
/01/
2013
26
7524
.8
4757
912.
7 54
2.14
25
26
10
4%
2675
24.8
47
5791
2.7
516.
1
25
GT-
5 26
.01.
2013
26
/01/
2013
26
7532
.4
4757
907.
5 54
1.17
25
26
10
4%
2675
32.4
47
5790
7.5
515.
2
26
GT-
6 27
.01.
2013
27
/01/
2013
26
7524
.0
4757
902.
5 54
0.22
25
26
10
4%
2675
24.0
47
5790
2.5
514.
2
27
GT-
7 16
.02.
2013
17
/02/
2013
26
7452
.8
4757
921.
5 57
6.47
40
34
.1
85%
26
7452
.8
4757
921.
5 54
2.4
28
GT-
8 21
.02.
2013
24
/02/
2013
26
7462
.0
4757
926.
0 57
3.67
19
5 55
50
44
88
%
2674
55.5
47
5790
1.6
537.
6
3-1
.
5186/400 -
9
33.4.
: ( . ).
. „Schinelli Consulting“- . . LR 554.01.
8 , S1-1- S1-8- . , .
. / „Schinelli Consulting“- . . LR 554.02.
16
. SB-1- SB-16- .
. „Schinelli Consulting“- . . LR 554.03.
.
. . .
.
3.5.
,
.
UCS, . ,
. .
5186/400 -
10
44.
4.1.
, - .
. - .
:
1. ( );
2. ( );
3. ( ).
4-1 4-2 , . 4-1 , , 4-2 .
51
86/4
00
-
0
. 4
-1.
51
86/4
00
-
1
. 4-2
.
5186/400 -
0
44.2.
. .
4.2.1.
- .
. - , ,
. ( ) (80-5,000 ).
4.2.2.
- . .
5,000 , , (
) - ( ) . -
, , - (3,500 ) , - -
.
- (65-200 )
( - ). ( - )
1,100-1,500 .
.
- . (120-
200 ), - (400-900 ). ( , .).
- / ( -) , -
.
, - - - ,
, - .
5186/400 -
1
44.2.3.
. ( - )
(750-1,600 ), .
- ( ) ( ) (500-900
).
. 4.3. . .
4.2.4.
. - -
(600-850 ). (10-400 ).
4.3.
, .
5186/400 -
2
- , : ,
, . ,
. ,
( ).
, .
, -
. .
28.5-23.8 .
, .
44.4.
4.4.1.
. . . .
. - . . . . ,
20-50 50 - . . 1 V .
. 20-30 . . ,
.
, , . 750-800 . .
, 50-100 ,
. , ,
.
5186/400 -
3
. - .
. , . ,
. 50 ( ) 100 ( ).
, . :
I , 7-10 . 200- 1,000
. I 50-100 . .
II 20-30 . . , .
.
III 100-150 . III ,
, , , ,
.
IV-VII 200 .
. , . , IV , .
. , .
, .
1.5 - . I II /
.
. 0.5 - , 40-50 .
44.2.2.
- . ,
. , - - - - - -
- - .
5186/400 -
4
. . . ,
.
.- .- - .- .- . .
.
. ,
.
. 1 - ,
9 - ( ). , 1,5 - 400 100 -
. .
, .
44.4.3.
( ) , .
, , , . . , ,
, .
. .
, ( ) - .
, - , - ,
. , , .
, - .
. , . . - , -
.
5186/400 -
5
8-9 , - , . 600
- . .
, . ,
.
, , , , .
:
: ;
: ;
: / ,
;
: , .
. , , .
, 12-18 .
I II ( ) . , ,
. 20-30 .
III ( ) , . , .
- , .
IV , , .
. .
. 1-3 , , ., 10-15
.
, .
5-10 , .
5186/400 -
6
. . . .
44.5.
4.5.1.
- 63 - 65 , 4 . . .
, V- 15-20 - 30 .
. .
30°– 40°- ( 600 ), 45°- (600-650
) 55°-60°- (650-750 ).
. , 30 .
, 600 , 75°- 80° . 600 55°- 60°- .
. - . . 600-650 . 600
. 5-7 . .
. , 500 70°, 550-600
50°-60° , 600-700 - 60°-65°- .
I II . 300 , 15-20 ,
. , 150-200 350-400
. 20-40 , - 100-300 . ,
III 660 700 .
4.5.2.
, .
, ,
5186/400 -
7
, . 75°-85°-
( ). .
.
, 2009 .
Qa / Qc: , A .
A: ( ) : - - -
. , #5 . 640
. , Qa / Qc .
B: A : ( ) ; ,
-
. C .
C: B . ( ) . ; ,
, . , ,
Qa/Qc .
, ( C),
, -
( B, ) - ( A, ).
4.5.3.
.
, 6 :
5186/400 -
8
I ( ) 80°/165° – 185° ( „ / “)
II 10° – 30° ( 50°)/130° – 195°.
III 10° – 30°/005°-040°.
IV 60°-80°/290°-350°. .
V 74°-85°/80°-160°. .
VI 60°-85°/050°-085°. .
, , 3 :
,
o ( I) ( );
o ( I III) ,
( VI) ;
( IV V).
I . VI II III . IV V
.
44.5.4.
, „ “ .
, GSI . ,
, , (JRC), . :
ID GSI
579 RB1 - 44-55
579 RB5 - 40-57
712 RB2 - 38-52
5186/400 -
9
715 RB3 - 60-80
719 RB4 - 40-55
723 RB6 - 27-37
720 RB7 - 37-52
ID GSI
. 564 LB1 - 58-75
. 613 LB2 - 45-65
. 575 -5 LB3 55-75
. 612 -5 LB5 - 35-47
. 519 -LB6 - 47-60
. 599 - LB4 - 38-52
. 656 D22i - LB7 - 38-42
. 643 LB8 - 55-75
4-1.
, 25 , .
4.5.5.
- .
, 2009 .
, ,
.
100 - 30 (2009 , „ “)
. 21)
. , 2009 .
.
51
86/4
00
-
0
##
##
,
,,
2 5
374
9
180°
80
° 15
0
I
25
257
27
15
0°
85°
100
I
3 77
2
16
59
180°
85
° 10
0-15
0
I
4 19
2
16
13
180°
85
° 10
00
,
I
5 15
2
06
29
180°
80
° 30
0-40
0
I
12
84
216
63
.5
60°
70°
300-
330
VI
17
424
25
80
° 60
° 20
-30
,
VI
13
98
216
68
80
° 80
° 10
0-15
0 ,
VI
18
424
19
80
° 60
-70°
10
0-25
0 ,
VI
14
101
216
70
90
° 80
°
100-
300
,
V
I
102
100-
350
,
V
I
15
-
-
60°
80°
100-
150
()
VI
16
36-3
7 5
01
47-5
0 10
0°
55°
200-
300
VI
2 5
02
32
90°
65°
300-
500
V
I
25
376
22
60
° 65
° 50
-100
V
I
17
99
216
72
60
-70°
70
-80°
10
0-15
0
V
I
9 52
2
18
54-5
8 35
5°
20°
200-
250
III
18
12
377
27
90
° 70
° 50
0
V
I
8 4
11
22
40°
40°
100-
400
III V
I
51
86/4
00
-
1
32
437
18
80
° 70
° 10
0-25
0
V
I
19
17
218
20
-30
85°
45°
200
V
I
21
(???
?)
6 3
83
10
-
130-
140°
140°
30-3
5°
30°
1000
-130
0
200-
300
II
4-2
.
/
-
-
(200
9 .)
51
86/4
00
-
2
. 4
-4.
.
200
9
-
5186/400 -
0
„ “ .
1. 2, 3, 4 , / 090 80-
90 /170-180 , .
15-25 - 1-2 , / ,
. , ,
, .
. 4-5. , ,
. „ “ (#2 #3) , , . ,
/ .
5186/400 -
1
. 4-6. „ 4“
2. 5 ( B) ( A) .
, . ,
. , .
5186/400 -
2
. 4-7. 5- ( . , „
- “, „ “, #2, . 44-49, 1990 . )
, -
. , 10-20
, , . DF5-1 .
5186/400 -
3
. 4-8. GEOL 001, DF5-1 DF5-2
F5
8 , , . , ,
- (RQD) . DF5-1 36 . DF5-2 ,
. (RQD). , F5 80-84
. , , . F5
, (RQD).
5186/400 -
4
. 4-9. F5 .
. UCS . .
( -7 ).
3. 112, 13, 14, 15 17 - , ,
, . #12, #13, #14, #15, #17
020 . , ,
, , . , 216- , 69-70 ( .
), 548 - 350-500 . - 80°/080°,
, .
5186/400 -
5
. 4-10. , 216
424- , 411- , 636 26- , 4- 2 . 65-70°/080° ( „ / “).
. 4-11. 424 „12-15 17 “
. ,
70-80°/080°, 4 .
5186/400 -
6
. 4-12. , 12, 13, 14, 15, 17
. RA5
. 4-13. „12-15 17“ ,
. .
5186/400 -
7
, , .
, ,
B C ( . 16 ).
4. 9 20°/355°. 218- 533 , „ 200-250 ,
“. ( . 52). ,
.
// ,,
47 180 5 3-5 48 180 80 5 49 40 65 5-10 , 50 170 70 5-10 51 170 70 5-10 - 52 355 20 200-250 , 53 100 60 5 - 54 10 10 2-3 - 55 10 100 2-5 - -
. 4-14. 218- #9
5. 16 ( 65°/090°) ,
: 501, 502 376 , 300 , 500 100 . ( 590 )
. . #480
5186/400 -
8
, 16 70°/080° 501- 502- B/C
.
. 4-15. F16 , F12-15 17, F18
. #373 612. .
6. 18 ( 70°/040-090°) - , 377 437
411 „12-15+17“ . #377 70°/090°, 500 -
. #437 (412- ) 70°/080°, 250 - .
7. 19 2009 , ( C)
( B). 2012-2013 , ( , )
5186/400 -
9
. , - DF19-1, DF19-2
DF19-3, DF19-4, DF19-5 GT4-8 . 720 .
. , 728 , , #18
. , . 86°/025° #18
, . , 15-30 B
. , ,
. (
), .
. 4-16. . . . ,
65°/020°- .
, , 583 . , , 65 /020 ,
5186/400 -
10
. , ,
.
, , #18 - .
, 501, 502 480 , , 15-20 . ,
.
F19-1 , 5 1
. (RQD) 13 ,
(RQD) .
F19-2 16 , B/C ,
.
60° . .
, , .
F19-3 , ,
, . 17.4 18.9 ,
. ,
( ), .
.
B/C , . #7, , , 2009
, . 560 - . ,
- 501 502 - #480 , .
501 ( 552 ) , 65 .
. 80°/180°- , , . - , , , .
5186/400 -
11
80°/180°- , „ - “ 600-800 (45 /065-70 ),
. - 12 , -
- - 80°/180°.
6
. 4-17. #501 67 - ( #48)
#502 , 589 , - 80°/175° 2
, 8 - , - 80°/175°, 10 - .
. #8 #9 85°/035° 70°/045 .
. 4-18. #502
, #480 , #443 548 . . 60-80 /180 . ,
39 , - .
5186/400 -
12
. 4-19. #480
501 502 480 B/C #16 (
) . , , 15-20 .
#549 - 53 ( 511) - ,
13 40-53 . 53 , . ,
, #318
.
- .
F19-3 , B/C
. - GT4, GT5 GT6 - 30 , , B
. .
F19-4 ( 160 ) F19-5 ( 110 ) #318
, B . ,
„ “ ,
5186/400 -
13
C - F18 . , , , GT7
501 - 35 ( 557). 576
, #501 . .
. 4-20. #501 . GT7 , 35 -
GT8 . , , .
, , C / B
, . , , 70-80 /170-180 .
, , F12-15, F16 F18 , ( . .60-80°/020°).
, (F12-15, F16), , .
5186/400 -
14
. 4-21. „ -19 “ -
, 70-80 /170-180 - / - F12-15 , F16 F18 .
5186/400 -
15
8. 21 , 383 ,
.
4.5.5.1.
, .
2, 3, 4 - , ;
5 - , ;
9 - , .
. ;
12, 13, 14, 15, 17 - ;
16 - „12-17“ , ;
18 - „12-17“ .
, , #19 , „12-17“, 16
18 .
4.5.6.
4.5.6.1.
, ,
- - . ,
.
(30°- ) ,
. , . ,
, , , „ / “, , .
.
:
5186/400 -
16
30°- 188 , 101 :
18 10°- , 18- - 20°- ;
11 10 ; 2 40 46 - , 6 10 . 3 , 12, 12 18 ;
8 100 - , 28 100 - , 7 500 - 2 - 1 .
:
:
. 542 383; 46 15°/030°-040°, 150 - ;
383; 3 30-35°/130°-140°, 1300 -
;
. 612 439, 12 18 , 20-30 ;
. 620 231, 10 , 15-20 /180 , 200-500 ;
. 631 440, 9 30 /130 -140 , 50-60 ;
, :
. 532 450, 40 25-30 /155 , 1-3 , ;
. 567 365, 12 , 30 340 , 1-3 , .
(188 ) ,
4-3, 4-4 4-5 .
+/-2°
(°) (°)
1 24 21°
2 25 142°
5186/400 -
17
4-3:
+/-2°
(°) (°)
1 23 19
2 22 180
3 26 1364-4:
+/-2°
(°) (°)
1 24 24
2 25 63
3 25 3494-5:
4.5.6.2.
LB7 - D21i 656, 10 /360 , , JRC 12-14, LB7 - D21i 656, 30 /124 , open, clay, JRC 12-14,
LB2 - DF5-2 613, 35 /157 , , JRC 0-2, LB6 - /222 /360 --12 LB8- 32 /081 -4,
RB2 - . 712, 28°/308° JRC 8-12, RB3 - . 715, 20°/026°, , JRC 6-8, RB7 - . 720, 36°/323°, , JRC 8-10, LB9 - . 623, 20°/255°, , JRC 2-4, .
.
5186/400 -
18
- (22-27°/032-059° = J-
- (22-35/150 = J-II). J3 15°/040°
- -15°/030°.
5186/400 -
19
- - -30°/040°,
385-
J2 25/194
10/180 - -
. 4-23. J2 (25/ 194) , .
5186/400 -
20
. 4-24. . , 30/030, 5-10 .
, 40-60
. 4-25. ,
, .
( , 50-100 )
5186/400 -
21
40 540, 580, 620 660 10-20 .
:
15°/030° 385- 540, 46 . 15°/040° – >50 20°/010° 439- 610, 18 10°/090° 10/280 - 231- 519- , 620 10°/360° 660, 32°/031° 643 .
,
. ,
. , - , . 30°/030°. ,
530 ( ), 540, 550, 580, 590 600.
. 4-26. . .
5186/400 -
22
44.5.6.3.
.
2, 3, 4 - , ;
5 - , ;
9 – , .
. ;
12, 13, 14, 15, 17 - ;
16 - „12-17“ , ;
18 - „12-17“ .
, , #19 , „12-17“, 16
18 .
. , 15-20 .
4.5.7
- , 2009 , ,
, - . .
. 4-27. . . 630-640 ,
60-70
5186/400 -
23
, / .
BH-312, BH-338, BH- 360 355, 351, 350, 519, 440, 439, 363, 361 534.
, 709 , 56 . .
, , -5 .
, . 640-650 , -
. 80 , 25 - .
50 . .
. 4-28.
5186/400 -
24
. 4-29. 50
,
, , .
( ., 3400 / - ) , 20-30 .
/ .
5186/400 -
25
55.
5.1.
, . ,
. ,
, .
5.2.
. , .
. . , , .
, , .
, . ,
. , .
5.3.
. 7.4, . 64.
5186/400 -
26
66.
6.1.
2012
- .
:
( A – D);
.
126 . „ “ ( ) .
:
89 ;
101 ( )
40 .
. .
6.2
, , :
;
;
;
.
6-1 2012/2013 (UCS) .
, , ,
.
, - ,
. , .
5186/400 -
27
, , . (
) , .
/ 3)) cc (( )) E ( )
..
..
.. .
..
..
. D21i 8 2.69 0.03 2.64 2.75 62 24 23 94 36 16 12 61 DF51V ; - 16 2.60 0.05 2.51 2.65 9 9 2 43 5 5 1 14 DF52i ; - 9 2.66 0.08 2.53 2.75 119 55 56 201 28 8 11 37
D22i ; - 4 2.71 0.01 2.69 2.73 182 12 167 198 73 22 52 103
.
DD3V ; - 8 2.66 0.09 2.47 2.77 20 8 11 39 57 31 17 117 D23i ; - 4 2.69 0.03 2.64 2.71 109 51 38 181 66 50 26 151 DF19-2i ; - 3 2.69 0.00 2.68 2.69 24 2 21 26 11 4 7 16 DF19-3i 3 2.71 0.01 2.70 2.72 34 1 33 35 15 1 13 17 DD4V ; - 14 2.73 0.04 2.62 2.82 100 45 54 199 55 23 29 89 D24i ; - 9 2.73 0.02 2.71 2.77 109 20 79 153 66 16 51 103
/
DF19-1i 3 2.64 0.02 2.62 2.66 26 11 17 41 10 5 5 17
PI-1V ; - 7 2.61 0.01 2.59 2.62 41 11 18 54 36 15 21 60
6-1. (2012-2013)
c ( ) ,
st/sc (-)
.. ..
. D21i 8 8.1 3.3 7.6 DF51V ; - 19 1.1 1.5 8.2 DF52i ; - 14 9.1 3.7 13.1 D22i ; - 4 12.1 6.5 15.0
.
DD3V ; - 5 5.3 1.9 3.7 D23i ; - 4 9.6 4.8 11.4 DF19-2i ; - 5 2.5 0.7 9.3 DF19-3i 3 2.8 0.5 11.8 DD4V ; - 20 8.1 3.2 12.4 D24i ; - 9 10.6 3.0 10.3
/
DF19-1i 3 2.5 0.8 10.1
PI-1V ; - 7 6.0 1.7 6.9
6-2. (2012/2013)
, 6-2. , .
, (DF5-1V) . ,
, .
6.3.
6 , 12 („ “ 19) .
, 4.5.3, 4.5.5 4.5.6. ,
5186/400 -
28
. , .
, 40 ( 7) : 11 29 .
B ( - ), D2-1i , A .
6-3 . . , B DD3V
.
.
, 6-3 , .
( 5-10%- )
.
cc (( )) ((°)
.. ..
.. ..
B - -
36 0.48 0.56 0 2.11 30 6.5 16 45
C -
4 0.45 0.40 0 0.84 29 4.0 26 36
6-3. (2012/2013)
6.4
,
. ,
, .
6.4.1.
. , 2012/2013 .
2009 - , 2012/2013 . .
. -
5186/400 -
29
. ,
600 . ,
,
.
11 12 E „ “4532-3 (1981) . - ( ., 11-I, 11-II .)
( ) .
, E- . ,
/ . , E-
- .
:
< 1.5 / Edf 1.0 1.5-2.5 / Edf = 1.0 - 2.5 2.5-3.5 / Edf = 2.5 - 5.0 3.5-4.0 / Edf = 5 - 10 >4.0 / Edf >10
5186/400 -
30
. 6-1. „ “ (1982 .)
. 2012/2013
2012/2013
. :
) ;
) ;
) GSI .
„Schinelli Consulting“- .
10, GSI .
.
)
:
;
;
.
5186/400 -
31
, . ,
2009 , , .
, .
. , D21-i .
( ) , ,
. ,
. 1- ,
.
2-8 .
- 23.7 LA1 ( , 20 ) 37 -
- #1 , , 100 .
, . DD4V ,
30 15 - . DD3V ,
15 - 37 . , 15
- 10-15 .
, ( . 2013 10 LR 554/04 (
10)) 6-4.
, #5 , 2.4 -
. , . A
. - , D21-i
(RQD) . , ,
. ,
5186/400 -
32
, , 20 - , - , ,
. , #5 ,
. ,
.
, . ,
1.5-3 . 2- .
„„ ““ ,,
334 „„ ““,
( ., D21i). DD2V
,, Edd, ,, Edd, 0-20 0.2-1.6 0-10 0.7-4 20-34 6.5 >10 >9 34-50 9.5
6-4. 2012/2013 . ( . ( 1 10))
)
DD2Vr 40 .
6-2. , , 34 37
, . , .
5186/400 -
33
. 6-2.
) GSI
, GSI .
(2006):
D , 0- . GSI (RMR) (GSI = RMR-
5), , (RQD, , ,
).
6-5. . ( ).
1- , .
, ( ., ).
5186/400 -
34
GSI UCS
.
( 55)
,, -- D21i DF51V; DF52i D22i DD3V; D23i DD4V; D24i
Ei [ ] 12-61 0.7-37 52-103 17-151 29-103
GSI [-] 43-58 40-63 63-67 35-65 48-65
Erm [ ] 3-21 0.2-22 35-50 2-53 11-49 6-5.
)
2012/2013 . -
.
. , .
6-3 ( . 1).
5
, -
Erm [ ]
8 <1 6 10 6 6
6-6. 2012/2013 . ( . 1- )
51
86/4
00
-
0
. 6-3
.
2
012
(
. 1
)
5186/400 -
0
66.4.2
, HB ( ) , .
, .
( , , .) .
6.5
, ,
. , (SIA, EUROCODES .) ,
.
c ( ) E ( ) t ( )
B. / - 62 53 9
C. 62 36 8
6-7. ( )
0.45 30°
6-8.
5
,, --
Erm [ ] 8 <1 6 10 6 6 6-9. ( 6-6,
1- )
5186/400 -
1
77.
7.1.
:
GIN ;
.
7.2. -
/ . , 7-1 :
,,
1 DF5-1V 25 X 2 DD2V - 130 X X 3 GT1 - 41 X 4 GT2 - 40 X 5 D22i - 89 X 6 GT3 - 44 X 7 DF5-2 53 X 8 DF19-2i 19 X 9 DF19-5i 38 X X
10 GT7 10 X 11 GT8 18 X 12 D23i 57 X 13 PI-1V - 84 X 14 D4V - 130 X 15 D24I - 70 X 16 DD 3V 94 X
7-1. -
11.
7.3
11. 7-1 , .
5186/400 -
2
. 7-1.
. ,
2010 120 .
2/3- :
: 24 ;
: 12 ;
: 6 ;
: 3 .
5186/400 -
3
77.3.1
. 7-2:
,,
,, // DF19--2i 2,190 2,135 19 112 DF19--5i 2,048 1,997 11 190
GT7 2,000 1,950 10 195 GT8 3,600 3,510 18 195 D23i 5,460 5,324 57 94
15,298 14,916 114 130 7-2. . .
130 / , 2010 (120 / ) .
(DF19-5i, GT7 GT8) , .
[4] , 130 / .
,,
,, // DF5--1V 3,095 3,018 25 121 DD2V 4,040 3,939 130 30 GT1 2,765 2,696 41 66 GT2 6,239 6,083 40 152
16,139 15,736 236 67 7-3. . .
67 / , . , DF5-1V, ,
. , 67 / [4].
7.3.2
,,
,, // DF19--2i 4,290 4,400 41 107 DF19--5i 2,048 2,101 11 200
GT7 6,142 6,299 30 210
5186/400 -
4
GGT8 7,361 7,550 39 194 DD23i 8,580 8,800 78 113
DDF5--11V 3,095 3,174 25 127 331,516 332,324 2224 1145
7-4.
145 / , [4].
, (130 / ).
-
,,
,, // DD2V 4,110 4,215 138 30 GT1 3,120 3,200 49 66 GT2 7,112 7,294 50 146
14,342 14,710 237 62 7-5. -
62 / , [4]. , -
(67 / ).
,,
,, // DF5--1V: 10--15 490 478 5 96 DF5--1V: 15--20 975 951 5 190 DF19--2i: 12--17 1070 1,043 5 209
2,535 2,472 15 165 7-5.
, . DF5-1V DF-19-2i (200 / ) . ,
( 3- ).
7.3.3
460 47,034 (45,858 ). ,
102 / - . ( ) - ( ) ( -
).
5186/400 -
5
[4] , 102 /
.
77.3.4. GIN
[1] GIN :
. 7-2. , [1]
[1] , „ 1500 / , 30
200 / “.
, GIN ( [1]) , :
: GIN = 1500 /
( / / 5-10% ).
, V .: V .=200 /
: 0 – 5 : P = 5 .
5 – 10 : P = 10 .
10 – 15 : P = 15 .
15 – 20 : P = 20 .
20 – 25 : P = 25 .
> 25 : P = 30 .
5186/400 -
6
. -11 ,
GIN . , (GIN , P
V ) .
P GIN V
2 DD2V - 20 17 3 3 GT1 - 5 3 2 4 GT2 - 10 1 7 2 1 DF5-1V 5 2 1 2 8 DF19-2i 6 2 3 1 9 DF19-5i 2 1 1
10 GT7 6 6 11 GT8 8 8 12 D23i 6 4 1 6% 21% 64% 9%
-- 60% 34% 6% 0% 34% 28% 34% 4%
7-7. - GIN 1500
7-7 -11 P-V . [1] P-V
, 7-3.
. 7-3. , [1]
- , ,
. ,
5186/400 -
7
, , .
, , GIN .
.
7.4
7.4.1
7-8 .
-
.. ..
.. ..
.. ..
2 DD2V - 7 25 40 2 122 5 D22i - 5 51 32 16 99 6 GT3 - 4 19 9 12 34 7 DF5-2 2 46 15 31 60 9 DF19-5i 3 18 3 15 23
13 PI-1V - 11 29 20 4 55 14 DD4V - 14 14 7 6 27 15 D24I - 7 10 3 4 15 16 DD 3V 12 32 11 16 56
7-8. -
(DD4V D24-I) , . D22-I, ,
, , DF5-2V, , .
-
.. ..
.. .. .. ..
17 34 13 15 60 - 48 23 24 2 122
18 33 34 2 122 47 22 15 4 56
65 25 22 2 122 7-9. -
25 , [3] , , .
, (34 ) - (23 ).
, - (48 ) (17 ) ,
5186/400 -
8
. , , - , .
5 . , , 90% 50 - . ,
90% 5 , 10- .
[5] , :
e > 10 <100
1.0 <e < 10 10-100
0.5 <e < 1.0 1-10
7-10. , [5]
10-100 , , 1-10 . ,
, ( , DD2V 122
).
[3] , 3-5
, . [3] , „
4-5 “. ,
, , .
7.4.2.
.
. [6] , ,
- . , -
. , [6].
5186/400 -
9
, , , ,
, [6]. ,
(<10 = 1 ), , 1 - . ,
, .
77.4.3.
DD2V , .
, .
,,
, /
,,
RQD,, %
10-15 1176.4 11.8-15.0 22.3 32 15-20 13.3 14.8-20.0 23.8 44
100-105 88.2 100.8-102.3 1122.3 61 105-110 7.2 108.0-109.5 5.8 76 110-115 8.2 109.8-111.3 9.7 60 115-120 8.2 117.0-119.5 6.2 39 120-140 20.5 118.8-121.3 6.2 25 7-11. DD2V
7-11 , , 100-105
(8 / ) (122 ). , 10-15 -
(176 / ), 2 , , ,
[4]. , , , [2] : „
“.
, .
, 7-4 .
5186/400 -
10
. 7-4.
7-4 , , 100 - (
). , , .
,
, ( 2/3- (=130 ))
.
5186/400 -
11
RQD
. 7-5. (RQD)
7.5
- III 2012/2013 ,
:
2/3- ( ) , .
( 12 ), ( 12 ) ( 6 ) ,
, 3 .
, ( 3 , 1.5 - ) ,
75% . , .
: 5 .
718 623 .
5186/400 -
12
, ,
:
: 340
: 27,000
: 5,400
: 120 /
: 3,900 .
7.6.
2012/2013 , - ,
, . ,
( ) - . , GIN
(GIN 1500, P = 30 , V = 200 / ) .
,
, , , 130 .
, 2/3- , .
7.7.
[1] . . „ GIN “, Water Power and Dam Construction, 1993.
[2] . „ “, -3 , Minusio, 2002
[3] . , „ “, 2004. [4] . , . . , „ “, 2007. [5] Association Français des Travaux et de l’Espace Souterrain (AFTES), recommandationGT8R2F1« la conception et la réalisation des travaux d’injection des sols et des roches », 2006. [6] Camilo Quiñones-Rozo, P.E., „ , “,
, 2010.
5186/400 -
13
„ “
:
: ,
:
Trans Electrica Ltd., 2013
–
))
2 3 4 6
-
-
2-
3-
-0268600
-
0268200
))
2 3 4 6
6
7-
8
8 0267292
))
2 3 4 6
9
-
634 0268720
-
0269780
))
2 3 4 6
4763927
0277249 4763674
)
-729 0276470 4762994
))
2 3 4 6
729 4762983
-
20 - 677 0272332
4766704
))
2 3 4 6
22 768
23 769 0270899
24 744 4763692
738
))
2 3 4 6
26 696 0270432 4762792
27 679 0270473
28 634
29-
628 0270936
))
2 3 4 6
30 600
32
33
))
2 3 4 6
34 789
776 0270932
36 727 0270920
37 0270922
))
2 3 4 6
38 689 0270924
39 634
40 0270893
))
2 3 4 6
–4
Trans Electrica Ltd., 2013
2013
2013
))(()1(1
)(tW W
Vn
k
tW
V
k
tW
VV
eettfeV
WVeW
V
VVW
kk τ
W
WVV
kτ
EDF
EDF
EDF
W
γ m m m m
1γ
2γ
γ
γ
50,13,2
46,31 P
PK
V
77,066,2
05,22 V
VK
,2,00
1 V
VWT
0W
V
V
.8,1042,5
41902,011001T
25,02v
hgRi
ρρ
vh,,ρ
ρ h v
8,65Q
ρ
)()( tS ρρρ
)(Sρ
,1)( SSρρ
ρ
ρ ρ
S
SS S d
S
)(tρ
25,0107,85,1
512,095,01690
10001
1000
81,9 42iR
d
,5,5 8,0id
d
d
,2,3 dd
d
d
0104,0i
14256,00104,05,5 8,0d
.44,60446,02,3
14256,0
3,2
dd
.44d
d
d
;2596,0022,05,5 8,0d .81081,02,3
2596,0d d
.8,30081,095,0
5,118,418,4
2,06,0
61,3
2,06,0
61,3
dH
vQ
.97,0105,31108,30 63TQG
46,3P
43,497,046,3GPV
81d
,2γ
485,02
97,0
γG
V
073,0485,015,015,0 VV
.412,0073,0485,0VVV
5,3640W
0755,0V 062,0V
058,0V
048,0V
4,282'0W
56,010:6,5V
0V
t
V
Wt o ω33,8
oW
ω
ω
104,111040001209200ωω l
V
022,356,041,005,2VVVV
4,90022,3
104,133,836,282t
t
V
VWT
o 2,0
V
4190V
132,4V
3
41902,036,2821T
tV
V
eV
VVWW z1
W
.26,2811,136,2820 ωWW
123,2073,005,2VVV
972,056,0412,0VVV
V
W
W
W
680058,0
44,39
V
Wt
6,889048,0
7,42
V
Wt
Khudoni Hydro Power Project .Detailed Project Report,volume -1.Trans Electrika Ltd. 2013.
Trans Electrica Ltd., 2013
Rue du Lac 33, P.O. Box : + 41 21/637 15 13 : [email protected] 1020 Renens VD 1 – : + 41 21/637 15 08 : www.stucky.ch
. . “ ”/ Salini Construttori SpA
–
AT/AA/RMG /5186/4004 , 2013 6
5186/4004-
1
1. ............................................................................................ 7
2. ....................................................................................................................................................... 9
2.1. (2009-2010) .................................................................................. 9
2.2. - (2012-2013) ............................................... 10
2.3. ......................................................................................................................... 11
3. ..................................................................................................................... 12
3.1. ............................................................................. 12
3-1. ........................................................................................................................................................................... 13
. 3-1. ........................................................................................................................................................................... 14
3.2. .............................................................................................. 15
3.2.1. - (2009-2010) ............................. 15
3.2.2. - (2012-2013) ............................................ 16
3-2. ........................................................................................................................................................................... 18
3.3. ............................................................................................. 18
3.3.1. ............................................................................................................. 18
3.3.2. ....................................................................................................... 19
3-3. ............................................................................... 19
3.3.3. (S) ...................................................................................................................... 19
3.3.4. ............................................................................................................................. 20
3-4. ......................... 20
3-5. ................................ 21
3.4. ........................................................................................................................... 21
3-6. MCE OBE [10] ............................................................................................................................................ 22
5186/4004-
2
. 3-2. MCE (5% , ) [10] .................................. 22
. 3-3. OBE (5% , ) [10] .................................. 22
3.4.1. ...................................................................................................... 23
3.5. ............................................................................................ 23
3.6. ............................................................................................................. 24
3-7. ............. 24
4. .............................................................................................. 25
4.1. .................................... 25
4.2. ................................................................................................................... 25
. 4-1. ......................................................................... 26
. 4-2. : III ...................................................................................................................................... 27
4.3. ............................................................................................................................................... 28
. 4-3. [2] ............................................................................................................................................... 29
4.4. ....................................................................................................... 29
. 4-4. ................... 31
4.5. ................................................................................................................................... 31
. 4-5. ......................................... 32
. 4-6. III ................ 33
4.6. ............................................................................................................................ 33
. 4-7. ( ) ................................................................................................................... 34
5. - - ........................ 34
5.1. - - ........................................................................................................................................................ 35
. 5-1. .......... 36
5186/4004-
3
5-1. .......................................................................... 36
. 5-2. ........................... 37
5.1.1. ........................................................................................................................................... 37
5.1.2. ................................................................................................................................................. 37
5.1.3. ........................................................................................................................................... 38
5.1.4. ...................................................................................................................... 38
5.1.5. .......................................................................................... 38
5.1.6. ................................................................... 39
6. .......................................................................................................... 40
6.1. ............................................................................................................... 40
6.2. ............................................................................................................. 40
. 6-1. ..................................................................................................................................................... 40
6.3. ........................................................................................... 41
7. - ............. 42
7.1. ............................................................................. 42
7-1. : - ................. 42
7-2. : - ...... 42
7.1.1. : ( )....................................... 42
7.1.2. : ............................................. 43
. 7-1. ...................... 43
7.1.3. : .......................... 43
7.1.4. : ............. 44
7.1.5. : ....................................................................................................................................................... 44
7.1.6. : .......... 44
7.1.7. : ....................................................................................................................................................... 45
5186/4004-
4
7.1.8. ................................................................................................. 45
7-3. .................................................................. 45
7-4. ...................................................................... 46
7.2. ...................................................................... 47
7-5. : - .............. 47
7-6. : - .. 47
7.2.1. (SU0) ............................................................. 47
7.2.2. 3 (SU3) .................................................. 48
7.2.3. 4 (SU4) .................................................. 49
7.2.4. .. 49
7.3. ............................................................ 50
7-7. . - ................. 50
. 7-8. . ( ) - . .............................................................................................. 51
7.3.1. (DUN0) ........................................................ 51
7.3.2. 3 (DUN3) ....................................... 52
7.3.3. 4 (DUN4) ....................................... 52
8. .............................................................................................................. 54
9. ................................................................................................................. 56
I. II. III. OBE MCE IV. -
1.e . S1 S3. . 2.e . S1 S3. . 3.e FSL . S1 S3. . 4.e FSL . S1 S3. . 5.e FSL . . . . 6.e . S1 S3. . 7.e . S1 S3. . 8.e . . . .
5186/4004-
5
9.e . S1 S3. . 10.e . S1 S3. . 11.e . . . . 1.f – 12.f ( ) 1.f – 12.f ( ) 1.s SU0 . S1 S3. . 2.s SU0 . S1 S3. . 3.s SU0 . . . . 4.s SU3 . S1 S3. . 5.s SU3 . S1 S3. . 6.s SU3 . . . . 7.s SU4 . S1 S3. . 8.s SU4 . S1 S3. . 9.s SU4 . . . .
1.d DUN0 . S1 S3 . . 2.d DUN0 . S1 S3 . . 3.d DUN0 . . . . 4.d DUN3 . S1 S3 . . 5.d DUN3 . S1 S3 . . 6.d DUN4 . S1 S3 . . 7.d DUN4 . S1 S3 . .
V.
5186-DAM.001 – 5186-DAM.002 – 5186-DAM.003 – 5186-DAM.004 –
5186/4004-
6
55186/40044 ,,
:
:
:
//
( , )
-
b
.
5186/4004-
7
(FLD) .
, - ( ) .
. ( . ).
„ “/Salini SpA- „ “/ „ “ -3 ,
.
1970- , „ “ ,
( , ). 1989 , 10 , , 200- . ,
.
II . III ( - )
, [1] . [1] ,
200 . ,
„ “ , „ “ ,
. , .
III ,
.
III , , ,
. , „ “
. ,
,
5186/4004-
8
, „ “ .
, ,
.
- .
2 084 000 3. .
, , „
“ .
„ “ ISO 9001:2000 .
5186/4004-
9
2. -2010)
, . . ,
1980- .
:
. .
1970- , „ “ ,
( , ).
2009 Stucky and Colenco “ ”
- . - , ,
, .
„ “ . , :
: (CVC) , 70
: 102.5
: 704
: 501.5
: 630 (70 )
:
: 700
: 703.7
: 630
: 345 3
( ) : 255 345 3.
5186/4004-
10
22.2 - -2013)
2009 . . . „ “. 2012 . . “ ”/Salini-
„ “, .
„ “ (PoE) - -5 , /
.
- [2], 2012-2013 :
.
[3], ,
;
, ;
El 600- , , ,
;
2012 2013
[2].
:
, El 501.5- El 510- . ,
.
(194 ). ,
.
70 - 168 , , -
5186/4004-
11
, , ,
. 3D , [2]
, , :
o ;
o .
H:V- ( 1.0:0.8) 0.9:1.0 ,
.
, 2,273,000 3- ( -
) 22,084,000 3- , 8.3%- .
2.3.
,
.
,
, .
,
- - ( ) . FLD ,
, - .
. .
.
.
5186/4004-
12
, .
, ,
, / .
,
. , , ,
, , .
.
.
. ,
. 3-1 ,
. USACE- [4] , .
,
. , ,
, .
( ) (-) ( / 3) (-) ( ) (-) (%)
E c Ed
5186/4004-
13
31 0.20 23.5 1 x 10-5 38 0.20 5% (OBE) 10% (MCE)
* 180-
-
25%- , ,
, . ,
. , ., (OBE)
5%- .
, , , (MCE) 10%-
.
[4]. ,
60-70%- [4]. 70%, 22 .
( ., , .)
.
cf , , 30 45 - 365 .
365 .
, 30%- [4].
, , [5] .
, ( ) . ,
, , 2- , (
- / 2 (psi) ).
5186/4004-
14
3/2)(7.1 ct ff
3/2)(4.3 ct ff ( )
,
, - [6]
3-1.
rR / BCAC / . ( , )
2- , 1- . -
1-2 . , 2- , 1- .
- , , cf
, tf .
-
3-1 :
1 2 , 1 2
cc ff -
ta ff -
A, B C .
5186/4004-
15
1S :
rR
ABACS1
.
- -2010)
„ “ . , , ,
. , .
- [7], [8] „ “
. :
11-I: - , , , ,
, , , - ;
11-II: „ “ - - , , - , , , , , - ;
11-III: - - , , - , , ,
, , - ;
11-IV: „ , “ - - , , - , , , , ,
- ;
12-I: , , , , .
3-7 . [8] , 12-I ,
, , . , , 12-I
, . , -
5186/4004-
16
11 -12 , .
33.2.2. - -2013)
2012-2013 /
. 2009/2010
.
Qa / Qc: , A .
A: ( ) : - - - . , #5
. 640 . , Qa / Qc
.
B: A : ( ) ; ,
- .
C .
C: B . ( ) . ; , ,
. , , Qa/Qc
.
BB CC . [2], , . ,
.
„ “ I [2].
2012 (2009 ) -
- .
5186/4004-
17
:
;
(14 ).
126 .
[2]:
89 ;
101 ( );
40 .
, .
, .
, .
. ( )
. , 5-2
6 ,
.
3-2. , -5
[2]. , ,
10 - 5 - ,
:
, ;
.
. , ,
25%- .
5186/4004-
18
, , , 0- -
. , -
.
,
, [3].
( ) (-) ( ) ( 3)
1 8.00 0.25 10.00 27
2
0.50 0.35 0.63 19
3 --
6.00 0.25 7.50 27
4 - 10.00 0.25 10.25 27
5 5.00 0.25 7.50 27
6 - 6.00 0.25 7.50 27
3-
3.3.
, ,
.
- . .
, ,
[3].
.
5186/4004-
19
- , . .
, . ,
.
, , .
„ “, , , , .
, , , ,
.
, 7 .
, .
10 / 3.
: (MinWL), (FSWL)
(PMFL). 3-3 .
MinWL)) (FSWL) PPMFL)
( ) (( ) (( )
630 700 703.7
-
, . 12ds / 3. ,
570 .
5186/4004-
20
( . .
„ “) .
. . ,
, . 2-3°C-
. .
,
.
[9] , 3-4. 21°C ;
-0.1°C .
((°C)
.
-0.1 1.0 5.0 10.3 15.4 18.3 20.8 21.0 16.9 11.4 5.8 1.3 10.6
-
, .
3-5.
((°C)
0 7.3 5.8 7.2 9.0 12.7 17.0 21.0 21.4 17.9 15.6 11.6 9.7
1 7.4 6.0 6.7 8.4 11.7 15.2 19.0 20.8 17.5 15.3 11.3 9.6
5 7.4 6.3 6.6 8.1 10.5 12.9 16.9 18.2 16.3 14.9 11.0 9.6
5186/4004-
21
10 7.3 6.3 6.6 7.9 9.1 11.4 14.9 14.9 14.2 13.9 10.8 9.5
20 7.2 6.2 6.5 7.7 8.0 9.9 12.3 12.7 12.7 13.0 10.6 9.3
30 7.0 6.3 6.4 7.3 7.3 9.3 11.7 12.1 12.0 12.2 10.3 9.0
50 6.9 6.2 6.4 7.3 6.9 9.1 11.0 11.7 11.4 11.4 10.0 8.8
80 6.6 6.0 6.3 7.1 7.0 8.7 10.7 11.1 11.1 11.1 9.6 8.7
200* 5.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5
*
-5
( ) , 2°C-
.
„ “ „ “ . „ “
„ “ ,
.
3.4.
II [10] .
.
, :
(OBE), (MCE), .
[10] 3-6 , 3-2 3-3 III .
(g) (g)
MCE 1 / 10 000 0.36 0.24
5186/4004-
22
OOBE 1 / 475 0.16 0.10
-[10]
-
- OBE
5186/4004-
23
[10] III .
, MCE (
3.3 ), 3-3 MCE , III
10%- .
33.4.1.
.
- 2- , , ,
. , , [11]- .
, . , -
,
. , .
,
. ,
/ .
: . ,
, .
, ,
.
:
SU: SUN: DUN: (OBE ) DE: (MCE )
3-7. 12 .
5186/4004-
24
( ) ( )
.
(Tmin Tmax), (DE1 DE2),
, .
. , : GG, WMinWL, WWFSWL, WWPMFL, TT TT , GG+ WFSWL and GG+ WFSWL + OOBE .
GG+WFSWL .
3.6.
( ) 3-7.
(
[3]) :
: FS=2.0 : FS=1.3 : FS=1.1.
*
( ))
G W S T E
Min WL
FS WL PMF WL
Max Min Max OBE MCE
# 630 700 704 570 T-T T-C C-C
SU0 1 1 1-3 3 SU1 2 SU2 3 1 1-3 3 SU3 4 1 1-3 3 SU4 5 1 1-3 3 SUN1 6 1 1-2 2 SUN2 7 1 1-2 2
DUN0 8 1 1-2 2 DUN1 9 DUN2 10 1 1-2 2 DUN3 11 1 1-2 2 DUN4 12 1 1-2 2 DE1 13 1 1 1 DE2 14 1 1 1
* .
-
5186/4004-
25
, :
T-T - T-C - C-C - .
, cf , , . rR / BCAC / . , 2- ,
1- . - 1-2 . ,
2- , 1- . -
, , cf , tf .
GG + WFSWL,
.
SU0. FDL : SU3, SU4,
DUN0 (G + WWFSWL + OOBE), DDUN3 DUN4.
II ,
(2012-2013).
,
, .
, , . , .
.
5186/4004-
26
-
:
V:H 5:1, 5-7.5 . 15 .
, , , , ,
, .
V:H 1:2. V:H 1:3
. 10-20
. . ,
, .
30°- . ,
USBR 30° , 30°- .
, .
/
.
5186/4004-
27
, , ,
. , ,
, . ,
. ,
. , ( ), ,
.
/ , . ,
- III
. , :
, „ “ ;
, ;
.
-
, ,
5186/4004-
28
, [2].
, , 4-3. , 3D ,
, . 640 , - .
80 , 25 - .
50 . . , .
. ,
.
:
: ; , - ;
: G + Wfswl .
.
:
;
:
. : ,
( ).
: ,
.
5186/4004-
29
, ( , , .) ,
. .
-3.
4.4.
,
5186/4004-
30
, , ( )
.
, (+1.0 - ) ,
. .
. , , V , (
)/ 3- 3.5- , ( ,
, ).
, 2.5- .
, .
Lombardi et al. [12]. , ,
. , ( ),
:
HVS 2
S ( 2)
V ( 3)
H ( ).
, , ( =15.5)
200 , III -
[1] ( =14.4), .
5186/4004-
31
-
, . USBR
- . , „ “
, , . :
, .
.
.
5186/4004-
32
-
:
U0 = U .
U1 = U .
U2 = U .
P1 = .
P2 = .
t = .
k = .
z = ( ( . . .)) – 510 ( . . .)
USBR , , ,
El 501.5- El 510- , 4-5.
, , ( 10 ):
, .
5186/4004-
33
-
:
11
20
2)( U
PVVU ( ) (5.1)
22
20
2)( U
PVVU ( ) (5.2)
,
V0 = 1000 (5.3)
P1 = (U0 – U1) (5.4)
P2 = (U0 – U2) (5.5)
, :
m
n
nnZCU
00 , m=6 ( ) (5.6)
m
n
nnZCt
0
, m=6 ( ) (5.7)
5186/4004-
34
m
n
nnZCk
0
, m=6 ( ) (5.8)
nC .
, .
510 ( ) 704 ( ) .
18 - ,
. , .
-7.
- -
- - „ “
. (DIANA)
[13].
5186/4004-
35
, :
; ; .
, , , ,
, .
.
.
.
6 ( ) .
FDL .
- -
, (DIANA, 9.4.3)
. ,
. , ,
- „ “ , , .
FDL , - .
5186/4004-
36
-
HE20 CHX60 3 200 16 133
HE20 CHX60 PE15 CTP45
1 616 124 8 968
HE20 CHX20H PE15 CTP15H
2 000 140 10 246
QU8 BCQ8HT TR6 BCT6HT
400 28 1 331
QU8 BCQ8HT 150 521
QU8 BCQ8HT 220 759
IS88 BQ24S8 IS66 BT18S6
400 28 2 662
-
5186/4004-
37
5-
1 692 CHX60 . CHX60 20- .
.
- 300
, 300 .
, , X-, Y- Z
. .
1 353 CHX60 90 CTP45
.
.
, - .
5186/4004-
38
,
, ( - ).
2 135 CHX20H 90 CTP15H . CHX20H 20- , CTP15H 15- . - CHX20H CTP15H
. , .
.
, , ,
, .
427 BCQ8HT 30 BCT6HT . BCT6HT 8- ,
; BCT6HT 6- , , BCQ8HT .
, ,
, ( ) 0- : ,
.
, 195 240 BCQ8HT .
, ,
. , , ( ) 0- :
, .
,
.
5186/4004-
39
: , ( )
( ) . ,
.
427 BQ24S8 30 BT18S6 . BQ24S8 BT18S6
, ( )
. . -
, .
5186/4004-
40
-
. .
6.1.
:
: . : .
: 1 , 2 3 , , , .
(1 =1 000 000 = 10 / 2).
.
6.2.
, 6-1. ,
.
, .
-
:
5186/4004-
41
U/D = / . C = . da = . df = . dc = . dm = .
.
:
+ e = . + s = . + d = . + f = .
5186/4004-
42
-
- . , -
( / ) .
: ( ).
.
3 1 3 1
- - - -
G -7.0 Cdf 1.2 Cdm -3.5 Cdm 0.8 Lda, Rda
WFSWL -6.5 Cdm 3.0 Cdf -8.0 Lda, Rda 2.7 Cdm
Tmin -0.6 Cdc 2.0 Cdc 0 - 2.1 Cdm
Tmax -1.2 Cdc 0.3 Cdc -3.8 Cdm 0 -
- -
r
-
G - -
WFSWL 113 Cdc
Tmin 17 Cdc
Tmax -38 Cdc
- -
e 2e
5186/4004-
43
.
,
77.1
3e 4e
-
, ,
. , ( ) ( ) .
5186/4004-
44
5e.
, .
0.113 (113 ) .
, 6e 7e .
, .
.
. , ,
, .
, , ( ),
.
, .
8e .
, 9e 10e .
, .
. , .
. .
5186/4004-
45
.
11e.
, , .
, .
, ( - - ),
,
.
12 , , 7-3
7-4.
X Y Z
,
% % %
1 1.56E+00 22.44E+01 2.44E+01 1.48E-02 1.48E-02 5.38E-03 5.38E-03
2 2.04E+00 6.52E-03 2.44E+01 44.20E+01 4.20E+01 3.97E+00 3.97E+00
3 2.34E+00 1.41E-02 2.44E+01 11.72E+01 5.92E+01 1.70E+00 5.67E+00
4 3.11E+00 2.36E+00 2.68E+01 9.05E-02 5.93E+01 1.18E-01 5.79E+00
5 3.46E+00 44.57E+01 7.24E+01 2.87E-03 5.93E+01 11.57E+01 2.15E+01
6 3.58E+00 9.90E+00 8.23E+01 2.51E+00 6.18E+01 55.53E+01 7.68E+01
7 3.96E+00 5.08E-01 8.29E+01 1.71E+00 6.35E+01 1.66E+00 7.85E+01
8 4.26E+00 4.42E-02 8.29E+01 11.85E+01 8.21E+01 3.85E+00 8.23E+01
9 4.60E+00 6.12E-01 8.35E+01 9.61E-03 8.21E+01 1.21E-01 8.25E+01
10 4.73E+00 5.71E+00 8.92E+01 5.62E-01 8.26E+01 3.86E-01 8.28E+01
11 4.82E+00 8.91E-02 8.93E+01 5.97E-01 8.32E+01 1.92E-01 8.30E+01
12 5.42E+00 4.20E-01 8.97E+01 1.29E+00 8.45E+01 3.93E-02 8.31E+01
-
:
f1=1.56 , 0.641 - .
5186/4004-
46
f12=5.42 , 0.19 - .
1 5 X- . 2, 3 8 Y- 3/4- . 5 6 Z- .
1f-12f. ; , .
X Y Z
,
% % %
1 1.20E+00 44.25E+01 4.25E+01 2.47E-01 2.47E-01 1.53E-02 1.53E-02
2 1.59E+00 3.30E-02 4.26E+01 11.17E+02 1.18E+02 1.19E+00 1.20E+00
3 1.80E+00 5.42E-02 4.26E+01 11.74E+01 1.35E+02 7.35E-02 1.28E+00
4 2.48E+00 4.46E+00 4.71E+01 1.35E-01 1.35E+02 3.64E-02 1.31E+00
5 3.14E+00 9.73E-01 4.81E+01 1.26E+00 1.36E+02 22.57E+01 2.70E+01
6 3.26E+00 1.08E+00 4.91E+01 11.09E+01 1.47E+02 5.32E+00 3.24E+01
7 3.34E+00 55.34E+01 1.02E+02 2.54E-01 1.48E+02 5.94E-01 3.30E+01
8 3.62E+00 1.63E-01 1.03E+02 11.14E+01 1.59E+02 44.90E+01 8.19E+01
9 3.79E+00 4.87E+00 1.08E+02 1.16E+00 1.60E+02 2.28E+00 8.42E+01
10 4.02E+00 2.23E+00 1.10E+02 4.70E-01 1.61E+02 1.45E-03 8.42E+01
11 4.40E+00 1.48E-03 1.10E+02 4.19E-01 1.61E+02 3.50E-03 8.42E+01
12 4.63E+00 3.32E+00 1.13E+02 5.13E-02 1.61E+02 5.26E-01 8.47E+01
-
:
f1=1.20 , 0.83 - .
f12=4.63 , 0.216 - .
1 7 X- . 2, 3, 6 8 Y- . 5 8 Z- .
13f-24f. , ; ,
, .
Y- , , 80%- .
25%- .
5186/4004-
47
, ,
( 1/3). .
.
:
3 1 3 1
- - - -
SU0 -6.3 Cdm 0.9 Lda -9.0 Cdf 0.7 Cdm
SU3 -6.7 Cdm 1.9 Lda -6.5 Lda 2.2 Cdm
SU4 -7.0 Rda 0 - -10 L/Rda 0 -
- -
r
-
SU0 114 Cdc
SU3 130 Cdc
SU4 88 Cdc
- -
FDL (700 ),
, SU0. , (1.0 -
), ( 10 ).
, 1s 2s.
3s.
, , .
5186/4004-
48
, , .
.
. , -
, 0.9 - . 6.3 - ,
, ¾- .
9 - : ( ,
). ( 10 - ) : .
7 - . 0.7 -
, .
SU3 SU0, ( 570 )
.
, 4s 5s.
6s.
, . SU3
2.2 - , .
C25 . ,
( ) .
2.1 . . ,
/ .
5186/4004-
49
, .
6 - (SU0) 6.7 - , ,
. 1.9 - , ,
.
77.
SU4 SU0, ( 570 )
.
, 7s 8s.
9s.
.
.
SU0 . 10 - ,
, , .
, 10 - 9.0
. , ,
.
7-5 , SU4
: 25 . , 30
. , ,
5186/4004-
50
, .
( , ,
).
, (
) - 25 . (30 )
, .
, ,
, .
FDL . OBE
, - .
. .
:
.
3 1 3 1
- - - -
DUN0 -10.0 Cdc 4.0 Lda -13.0 L/Rda 3.0 Cdc/m
DUN3 -10.8 Cdc 4.5 Lda -12.0 L/Rda 4.5 Cdc/m
DUN4 -11.6 Cdc 1.8 Lda -16.0 L/Rda 2.6 Lda
- -
5186/4004-
51
EQ-
DDUN0 - US DS US DS
X-- 20 17 8.48 8.10
Y-- 45 -55 8.66 9.02
Z-- 8 -8 8.08 8.24
- -
7.3.1. (DUN0)
SU0 OBE
.
, 11d 2d .
3d.
4.0 -
. 2.5
. (
).
, , , 5.5 - [5].
( ) , ,
, .
10.0 - , .
, .
. , - ( ,
130%), 16.25 , .
5186/4004-
52
3.0 ¾- , .
.
10.0 - (
, ) .
, :
17 - . 12
. ( ., 30 )
- , 8.2.4.
, , SU0
.
SU3 OBE
.
, 44d 5d .
DUN0 . .
4.5 ¾- , .
. DUN0
. , ,
.
DUN0 DUN3 .
7.3.3.
5186/4004-
53
SU4 OBE
.
, 77d 8d .
1.8 -
. , .
: DUN0 .
2.6 , . ,
.
16.0 - /
. DUN0 ,
, FEM .
. , .
( ., 30 ) - .
5186/4004-
54
, /
, . (H = 194 ) - .
:
( / -) , ,
.
.
, .
.
, ,
( ) .
[3]. , ,
(SU0) ( 1.5 [4]-
]). , , , ,
, . , ,
, , ,
(„ “ . [2] ).
,
.
25 365 . , .,
, 30 - .
, , „ “ -
5186/4004-
55
/ . ,
/ , , 2 084 000 3, III
2 273 000 3 ( 8.3%- ).
, .
.
5186/4004-
56
[1] „ - “, „III , - , “, 1040/4015, 0, : 08.12.2008.
[2] „ “, „ – , “, 5186/4003, 0, 2013
.
[3] „ “, „ – , “,
5186/4005, 0, 2013 .
[4] , „ “, Engineer Manual 1110-2-2201, 1994.
[5] . . , „ “, American Concrete Institute, 1984 - , . 158-165.
[6] , . . , „ “, ACI Journal Volo. 66, 8, 1969, . 656-666.
[7] „ - “, „II , , “, 0, : 31.10.2007.
[8] „ - “, „III , - , “, 1040/4040, 0, : 07.11.2008.
[9] „ - “, „II , “, 1040/4017, 0, : 30.04.2008.
[10] „ - “, „II , “, 1040/4013, 0, : 11.12.2008.
[11] . . . , 1982 ( ), “ : “, #UCB/EERC-82/09,
/ , , . , 1982.
[12] . „ : “, Water Power and Dam Construction, , 1991, . 31-34. [13] DIANA - , 9.4, 2009 .
5186/4004-
57
„ “
:
:
:
5186/4004-
58
5186.4004
I –
Trans Electrica Ltd., 2013
V:
Trans Electrica Ltd., 2013
7.
1
saqarTvelo
SezRuduli pasuxismgeblobis sazogadoeba
”hidrodiagnostika”
samecniero-teqnikuri angariSi
xudonis kaSxlis garRveviT gamowveuli talRis
maTematikuri modelireba
(xelSekruleba N# 2/11, 17.10.2011w.)
Tbilisi
2011
2
saqarTvelo
SezRuduli pasuxismgeblobis sazogadoeba
”hidrodiagnostika”
samecniero-teqnikuri angariSi
vamtkiceb:
Sps ”hidrodiagnostik”-is direqtori,
akademiuri doqtori i.nonievi
xudonis kaSxlis garRveviT gamowveuli talRis
maTematikuri modelireba
(xelSekruleba N# 2/11, 17.10.2011w.)
Temis xelmZRvaneli,
teqn. mecn. doqtori, prof
T.gvelesiani
Tbilisi
2011
3
SemsrulebelTa sia
1. gvelesiani T. t.m.d, prof.
2. berZenaSvili g. doqtoranti
3. yirimliSvili – daviTaSvili T. akad. doqt.
4. nadaraia g. akad. doqt.
4
Sinaarsi
gv.
Sesavali . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1. eqstremalur pirobebSi hidrokvanZis biefebSi wylis
talRuri procesebis Seswavlis sainJinro meTodebis
mimoxilva . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7
2. hidrokvanZis zogadi daxasiaTeba . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
3. wyalsacavis forsirebuli damuSavebis pirobebi . . . . . . . . . . 19
4. xudonis kaSxlis garRveviT gamowveuli talRis qveda biefSi
transformaciis procesis maTematikuri modelireba.. 21
4.1. Ria kalapotebSi siTxis arastacionaruli moZraobis
marCxi wylis Teoriuli daSvebebi da diferencialuri
gantolebaTa sistemebi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
4.2. maTematikuri modelirebis ganxorcielebis pirobebi . . . 22
4.3. maTematikuri modelis ricxviTi realizaciis Sedegebi. . 26
daskvnebi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
literatura . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
danarTebi 32
danarTi 1. topografiuli monacemebis interpolaciuri
meTodiT damuSavebis Sedegebi (mdinaris kalapotis
ganivkveTebi) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
danarTi 2. nakadis maxasiaTeblebi . . . . . . . . 35
danarTi 3. jamuri monacemebi (cxr.1-cxr.3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
5
Sesavali
mTisa da mTiswina raionebis miwis resursebis dacvis, maTi potencialis
maqsimalurad gamoyenebisa da garemos ekologiuri wonasworobis
SenarCunebis problemebi uSualod dakavSirebulia hidrokvanZebis
nagebobaTa saimedo funqcionirebis uzrunvelyofis amocanebTan
eqstremaluri pirobebis gaTvaliswinebiT. 1-5
aRniSnuli eqstremaluri pirobebi gamoxatulebas poulobs mTian da
mTiswina seismoaqtiur raionebSi (romlebic saqarTvelos mniSvnelovan
nawils moicaven) iseTi msxvilmasStabiani geodinamikuri procesebis saxiT,
rogoricaa mewyerebi da seismoteqtonikuri dislokaciebi (romlebic
vlindebian dedamiwis zedapirze, rogorc e.w. pirveladi narCeni de-
formaciebi) am geodinamikuri procesebis Sedegad wyalsacavSi SeiZleba
warmoiqmnas maRali damangreveli talRebi [1-6].
rogorc hidroteqnikuri mSeneblobis mravalwliani praqtika gviCvenebs,
am talRebis zemoqmedebisas kaSxalze, kerZod maT gadadinebis Sedegad,
SeiZleba adgili hqondes qveda biefSi, rogorc farTo teritoriebis, maT
Soris savargulebis datborvas, aseve sairigacio, satransporto da sxva
sistemebis ngrevas. zogjer am movlenebs Tan sdevs ekologiuri katastrofa
dasaxelebuli obieqtebis mospobisa da adamianTa msxverplis saxiT
(rogorc es moxda italiaSi 1963 w. vaiontis wyalsacavSi katastrofuli
mewyeris Camozvavebis Sedegad) [7-9,19, 20].
msgavsi katastrofuli movlenebi SeiZleba moxdes iseT sagangebo si-
tuaciebSi (gansakuTrebul pirobebSi), rogoricaa omi an teroristuli aqti,
rodesac xdeba kaSxlis afeTqeba da misi nawilobrivi an mTiliani ngreva,
ris Sedegad kaSxlis garRveviT gamowveuli talRa vrceldeba qveda biefSi.
zemoTqmulidan gamomdinareobs, Tu ra didi socialurekologiuri da
teqnikurekonomikuri mniSvneloba eniWeba hidrokvanZebis, saimedo muSaobis
uzrunvelyofa eqstremalur pirobebSi da garemos ekologiuri
wonasworobis SeZlebisdagvarad, SenarCunebas an ekologiuri safrTxis
Semcirebas, mecnierulad dasabu-Tebuli RonisZiebaTa kompleqsis
ganxorcielebis safuZvelze. 5,17,19,20
aqve unda aRiniSnos is mniSvnelovani faqti, rom saqarTvelos hidro-
teqnikuri mSeneblobis istoriaSi winamdebare proeqti erTerTi pirvelia,
6
romelic ar sruldeba e.w. "daxuruli", gasaidumloebuli TematikiT,
rogorc es yofil sabWoTa kavSirSi warmoebda, amdenad, xdeba SesaZlebeli,
rom inJinerTa da specialistTa farTo wre Riad gaecnos proeqtis Sedegebs
da momavalSi Tu saWiroa, gamoiyenos kidec. 14
unda aRiniSnos agreTve isic, rom winamdebare proeqtis ganxorciele-ba
warmoebs proeqtis Semsrulebeli mecnier-specialistTa jgufis mier
saqarTveloSi konkretuli obieqtisaTvis pirvelad damuSavebuli
katastrofuli nakadis moZraobis gaTvlis sakuTari kompiuteruli
programis safuZvelze, rome-lic saTanadod aprobirebulia da
adaptirebuli mTiani regionis speci-fiurobis gaTvaliswinebiT.
winamdebare proeqtis mizans warmoadgens:
1. im sakiTxebis mimoxilva, romlebic Seexeba eqstremalur pirobebSi
samTo wyalsacavsa da hidrokvanZis qveda biefSi maRali talRebis war-
moqmnis SesaZleblobis dadgenis, agreTve talRuri procesebis Seswav-lis
Tanamedrove Teoriul midgomebsa da saangariSo meTodebs.
2. kaSxlis mTliani garRveviT gamowveuli talRis qveda biefSi gavr-
celebis siCqareebisa da SesaZlo datborvis zonebisa da Sesabamisi
siRrmeebis gaangariSeba (igulisxmeba maqsimaluri talRa, romelic Seesa-
bameba normalur Setborvis dones - nSd).
3. wyalsacavSi wylis donis SesaZlebel forsirebul Semcirebis ("da-
muSavebis") gansazRvra da e.w. "optimaluri damuSavebis donis" dadgena
sagangebo pirobebSi kaSxlis mdgradobis SenarCunebis mizniT.
4. wyalsacavSi aRniSnuli optimaluri damuSavebis donis SemTxvevaSi
kaSxlis garRveviT gamowveuli talRis parametrebis gansazRvra, datborvis
zonis Semcirebis odenobis dadgena, nSd-is SemTxvevasTan SedarebiT
bunebrivia, rom zemoaRniSnuli hidrodinamikuri gaTvlebi Catarebu-lia
hidrokvanZis qveda biefis Sesabamisad damuSavebuli topografiuli
monacemebis (miwis zedapiris niSnulebi, ganivkveTebi, qanobebi da sxv.) sa-
fuZvelze. amasTan, unda aRiniSnos, rom topografiuli monacemebis kom-
piuterul programaSi CatvirTvisaTvis, damuSavda am monacemebis spe-
cialuri interpolaciuri qveprogramebi organzomilebiani da samganzo-
milebiani SemTxvevebisaTvis, Sesabamisad ganivkveTebisa da mTliani ka-
lapotis warmosaxvis mizniT.
7
1. eqstremalur pirobebSi hidrokvanZis biefebSi wylis talRuri procesebis Seswavlis sainJinro meTodebis mimoxilva
sxvadasxva tipis wyalsacavebi wylis talRuri moZraobis maTematikuri
modelirebis mizniT gamoiyeneba diferencialur gantolebaTa sistemebi,
romlebic fundfamentalur hidromeqanikur kanonebs asaxaven. es aris
moZraobis uwyvetonis (masis Senaxvis) da energiis Senaxvis (moZraobis
raodenobis Senaxvis) arawrfivi gantolebebis sistemebi. praqtikaSi,
sainJinro amocanebis amoxsnisas Cveulebriv, mimarTaven miaxloebiT
Teoriebs, romlebic garkveuli daSvebebsa da gamartivebas efuZneba. qvemoT
mokled SevexebiT maT [5], [13].
1.1. rogorc sainJinro praqtika aCvenebs, siTxis talRur moZraobasTan
dakavSirebuli amocanebis farTo klasis ganxilvisas, savsebiT misaRebia
daSveba imis Sesaxeb, rom 0Vrot (sadac V – wylis siCqaris veqtoria). es
niSnavs imas, rom am dros talRuri rxevebiT mocul siTxis areSi
grigaluri moZraobis mdgeneli nulis tolia. am SemTxvevaSi siTxis moZ-
raobas ewodeba potenciuri da misi daxasiaTeba SeiZleba siTxis
samganzomilebiani moZraobis SemTxvevaSi garkveuli (x,y,z,t) funqciis
safuZvelze, romelsac siCqaris potenciali ewodeba [5,13].
am SemTxvevaSi uwyvetobis gantoleba SeiZleba warmodgenil iqnas ma-
Tematikuri fizikis erT-erTi ZiriTadi gantolebis, laplasis gantolebis
saxiT[16].
maTematikuri fizikis aRniSnuli sasazRvro amocanis amoxsnis (anu -
funqciis gansazRvris) Sedegad SesaZlebeli xdeba Sesabamisi sawyisi da
sasazRvro pirobebis dacviT, wyliT mocul areSi (wyalsacavSi) yvela
hidrodinamikuri parametris, kerZod ki, talRis amplitudis ( ) da siCqaris
komponentebis (u,v,w) povna. aseT midgomas efuZneba e.w. mc i re ampl i tud i
s talReb i s (mat/SAW) Teor i a.
1.2. meore miaxloebiTi Teoriis, m a r C x i w y l i s ( m w / S W )
T e o r i i s Tanaxmad, talRis simaRle wyalsatevis siRrmesTan SedarebiT
SeiZleba ar iyos mcire; gaiTvalisiwneba agreTve kalapotis fskerze
moqmedi xaxunis Zalebi da kalapotis qanobi. mTavari daSveba am TeoriaSi
aris is, rom nakadis siCqareebi misi siRrmis (vertikaluri z Rer-Zis)
8
mixedviT ar icvleba anu miiReba, rom siCqaris vertikaluri mdgeneli nulis
tolia. amgvarad, wnevis ganawileba siTxeSi pirdapir proporciulia
siRrmisa da emorCileba hidrostatikis kanons [5], [15].
miRebuli mw gantolebebi arawrfivia da maTi amoxsnis mizniT saWiroa
ricxviTi (sasrulsxvaobiTi an sasruli elementebis) meTodebis gamoyeneba
[1]. bunebrivia, rom am dros SesaZlebelia kalapotis formis gaTvalisiwneba,
rogorc ganivkveTSi, aseve gegmaSi (Tu es forma ar ganicdis mkveTr
cvlilebas).
marCxi wylis Teoriis safuZvelze SeiZleba ganxilul iqnas, mxolod
erTganzomilebiani an organzomilebiani (gegmaSi) wylis moZraobis
SemTxvevebi (nax.1).
marCxi wylis erTganzomilebian uwyvetobisa da moZraobis gantolebaTa
sistemas xSirad, senvenanis gantolebebs uwodeben[15]. maTi Cawera SeiZleba
Semdegnairad
,0xQ
t (1.1)
,2
||)(10 gR
UUixhQU
xtg (1.2)
sadac h- aris wylis nakadis siRrme;
U - dinebis saSualo siCqare;
i0– ka-lapotis fskeris qanobi;
- ganivkveTis farTobi;
Q - nakadis xarji
x - ganivkveTis koordinata;
t – dro;
- hidravlikuri xaxunis koeficienti
R - hidravlikuri radiusi;
C - Sezis koeficienti (maningis formulis Tanaxmad is tolia C=(1/n)R1/6
sadac n - kalapotis xorklianobis koefi-cientia).
9
Fig.1. One- and two-dimensional unsteady flow design schemes
nax.1 erT- da organzomilebiani arastacionaruli nakadis saangariSo
sqema
unda aRiniSnos, rom Cvens mier dadgenil kriteriumebis mniSvnelobaTa
fargleb-Si [5], mat Teoriis analizur gamosaxulebaTa saSualebiT
miRebuli angariSis Sedegebi praqtikulad identuria Sesabamisi mw modelis
ricxviTi realizaciis monacemebTan.
1.3. mokled SevexoT kidev erT SedarebiT martiv Teoriul midgomas. saqme
imaSia, rom zogierTi tipis talRa, kerZod, boris tipis talRa[12], [13],
romelsac gaaCnia praqtikulad vertikaluri fronti da vrceldeba formis
10
Seucvlelad, SeiZleba aRweril iqnas impulsis (anu moZraobis raodenobis)
Senaxvis kanonis saSualebiT.
nax.2 gamosaxulia umartivesi sqema, rodesac boris tipis talRa si-
maRliT vrceldeba h0 siRrmis wyalsacavSi, romlis qanobia i0=0. amasTan,
igulisxmeba, rom moqmedi Zalebia mxolod nakveTuris wona da hid-
rodinamikuri wneva a da b kveTebSi.
Fig. 2. Design scheme for calculating the bore type wave
nax.2 saangariSo sqema boris tipis talRis SemTxvevaSi
im SemTxvevaSi (Tu aRniSnuli wyalsatevi prizmatulia da gaaCnia mudmivi
sworkuTxa ganivkveTi), maSin talRis gavrcelebis siCqare tolia
)2(121
00
1 hh
gC (1.3)
kerZod, am formulis Tanaxmad Tu <<h0, maSin 01 ghC , anu miviRebT
cnobil lagranJis formulas, romliTac ganisazRvreba grZeli talRebis
gavrcelebis siCqare [13].
11
unda aRiniSnos, rom samTo wyalsacavebSi eqstremalur pirobebSi (mi-
wisZvrebi, mewyerebi da sxv.) generirebuli talRebis Seswavla daiwyo
pirvelad yofil sabWoTa kavSirSi 70-iani wlebSi saqarTvelos energetikisa
da hidroteqnikuri nagebobebis institutSi. am institutSi es kvlevebi
SemdegSic gagrZelda, rogorc Teoriulad, ZiriTadad, mat Teoriis
gamoyenebiT (Tematikis xelmZRvaneli T.gvelesiani), agreTve eqs-
perimentalurad institutis hidravlikur laboratoriaSi (Tematikis
xelmZRvaneli g.mamraZe). gamoqveynebuli iyo bevri naSromi, maT Soris
monografiebi [5.19,20]; Sesrulebuli iyo aTamde teqnikuri angariSi (Reports)
yofil ssrk-s respublikebSi, maRali, maT Soris unikaluri kaSxlebis da-
proeqtebisa da eqspluataciis stadiebze. kvlevaTa Sedegebi gamoyenebuli
iyo agreTve, saxelmwifo samSeneblo normativebSi, maT Soris "snip"-ebSi [1-
4].
1983-85 wlebSi amave institutSi Catarda, rogorc konkretuli hidro-
kvanZis kaSxlis darRveviT warmoqmnili talRis gaTvla (moskovis hidro-
proeqtSi damuSavebuli hidravlikuri erTganzomilebiani modelis sa-
fuZvelze), agreTve am talRis eqsperimentaluri Seswavla pirvelad sab-
WoTa kavSirSi msxvil masStabian modelze naturul pirobebSi (md.aragvis
noRakalapotis erTkilometrian ubanze) [11]. (xelmZR. g.gvazava).
bolo wlebSi Tbilisis saxelmwifo universitetSi gamoyenebiT maTe-
matikis kaTedraze damuSavebul iqna mTeli rigi saangariSo algoriTmi mw
Teoriis safuZvelze da Seswavlil iqna gaTvlis procesTan dakavSirebuli
maTematikuri aspeqtebi (xelmZR. h.melaZe). 5
amgvarad, mTian regionebSi ganlagebul hidrokvanZebis biefebSi eqst-
remalur pirobebSi gamowveuli maRali talRebisa da maTi garemoze saSiSi
zemoqmedebis mecnieruli Seswavlis gamocdileba saqarTveloSi sakmaod
didia da moicavs ramdenime aTeul wels.
12
2. hidrokvanZis zogadi daxasiaTeba
proeqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli xudonis kaSxali ganlagebuli iqneba
svaneTSi (dasavleT saqarTveloSi) mdinare engurze (romelic sigrZiT
Seadgens 213km) sofel xaiSis axlos. es ukanaskneli daSorebulia Tbiliss
405km-iT, xolo uaxloes rkinigzis xazs zugdidSi – 70km-iT (nax.3) xudonis
hidrokvanZis wyalsacavi aris sezonuri regulirebis, xolo hidrokvanZis
daniSnulebaa – eleqtruli energiis gamomuSaveba (nax.4)
hidrokvanZis SemadgenlobaSia Semdegi mTavari hidroteqnikuri nagebobebi:
1. betonis kaSxali (ix. qvemoT)
2. wyalmimRebebi. gaTvaliswinebulia sami wyalmimRebi gvirabis ageba.
TiToeuli maTganis diametria 6m, xolo sigrZe Seadgens 57.5m. wyalmimRebi
farebis zomebia 5m×6.20m.
3. mimyvani gvirabi - warmodgenilia sami gvirabiT, TiToeulis diametria 6m,
xolo sigrZeebi 240m, 260m da 280m tolia
4. sadawneo milsadenebi – ganlagebuli iqneba 3 xazi foladis
milsadenebisa. diametriT TiToeuli 6m. maTi meSveobiT ganxorcielebuli
iqneba mimyvani gvirabebis dakavSIreba eleqtro-sadgurTan. am milebis
sigrZe Seadgens 156m.
5. sarini gvirabi – Sedgeba sami xazi – gvirabisagan, romelTa diametria 8m.
sigrZe ki 145m tolia.
6. marcxena sanapirosTan mdebare wyalsagdebi nageboba
7. kaSxlis Txemis (zedapiruli) wyalsagdebi
8. 2 fskeruli wyalgasaSvebi
9. STanTqmeli Wa
xudonis kaSxali warmoadgens betonis TaRovan kaSxals, misi parametrebia:
- kaSxlis maqsimaruri simaRlea 200.5m
- misi sigrZe Txemis gaswvriv aris 522.0m
- Txemis niSnulia 702.0m
- Txemis siganea 9.0m
- kaSxlis Ziris siganea 42.1m
xudonis wyalsacavis ZiriTadi parametrebia:
- normaluri Setborvis donis (nSd) niSnuli - 700.0
- mkvdari moculobis donis (mSd) niSnuli –630.0
13
xudonis wyalsacavi
xudonis TaRovani
kaSxali
F
ig.3
Pla
n of
the
Khu
doni
hyd
raul
ic p
roje
ct a
t the
Eng
uri r
iver
nax.3 md. engurze xudonis hidrokvanZis gegma
14
md. enguri River Enguri
xudonis TaRovani kaSxali
=200.5m Khudoni arch dam H=200.5 m
Fig. 4 Plan of Khudoni hydraulic project. The main hydraulic structures: 1- intakes
2- head race tunnels 3- pressure shafts 4- tail race tunnels 5- bottom outlets 6-crest
(surface) spillway 7- absorption well (sump) 8-left bank spillway
nax.4 xudonis hidrokvanZis gegma. ZiriTadi hidroteqnikuri
nagebobebi: 1- wyalmimRebi 2- mimyvani gvirabebi 3- sadawneo
milsadenebi 4- sarini gvirabebi 5- fskeruli wyalgasaSvebi 6-
zeda-piruli wyalsagdebi 7- STamnTqmeli Wa 8- marcxena
napiris wyalsagdebi.
15
- wyalsacavis moculoba – 364.5 mln.m3 (nSd-is dros)
- sasargeblo moculoba 223 mln.m3
- mkvdari moculoba 141.5 mln.m3
- wyalsacavis sigrZe 14.2 km
- wyalsacavis zedapiris sarkis farTobi ( ) 5.2km2 (nSd-is dros)
enguris kaSxlisa da wyalsacavis parametrebia:
- betonis TaRovani kaSxali maqsimaluri simaRliT 271.5 m
- normaluri Setborvis donis niSnuli wyalsacavSi – 510.0
- wyalsacavis mTliani moculoba – 1.100100 mlr.m3
- sasargeblo moculoba – 676.0 mln.m3
- wyalsacavis fskeris niSnuli kaSxalTan – 285 m
- maqsimaluri siRrme 225m
- wyalsacavis sigane icvleba 100...200m-dan 1500...1700m-mde (kaSxlis zonaSi).
xudonis hidrokvanZis wyalsacavisaTvis ZiriTadi maxasiaTebeli
damokidebulebebi wyalsacavis moculobasa da niSnuls, agreTve
wyalsacavis zedapiris (sarkis) farTobsa da niSnuls Soris warmodgenilia
nax.5-ze.
aRniSnuli grafikuli monacemebis damuSavebis Sedegad Cven miviReT
miaxloebiTi damokidebulebebi wyalsacavis siRrmes ( ) da moculobas ( )
Soris Semdegi saxiT
(2.1)
(2.2)
sadac w gamosaxulia mln.m3-Si
agreTve , aRniSnuli monacemebis saSualebiT miRebul iqna Semdegi
formulebi:
16
Fig.5 Reservoir volume and water surface curves for the Khudoni dam
nax.5 wyalsacavis moculobisa da sarkis zedapiris mrudebi
(2.3)
(2.4)
(2.6)
magaliTad, rodesac (normaluri Setborvis done),
wyalsacavis maqsimaluri moculoba Seadgens mln.m3 da
(2.2) formulis saSualebiT viRebT m. amave SemTxvevaSi,
formula (2.3) gvaZlevs =5.2 km2
17
qvemoT warmodgenilia cxrili 1, sadac moyvanilia (2.1) da (2.2)
formulebis saSualebiT miRebuli wyalsacavis iseTi elementebis
mniSvnelobebi, rogoricaa
1. hdec wyalsacavis damuSavebis siRrme, romelic ganisazRvreba ase
ddec = ( H)max- H
sadac ( H)max = 700.0 aris normaluri Setborvis donis niSnuli
H- wyalsacavis donis niSnuli
2. h - wyalsacavis siRrme kaSxalTan, romelic tolia
h=hmax - hdec,
sadac hmax aris wyalsacavis maqsimaluri siRrme kaSxalTan
(hmax 180m)
3. W/Wmax – wyalsacavis damuSavebis xarisxis fardobiTi
damaxasiaTebeli;
W – aris wyalsacavis moculoba wylis donis sxvadasxva
niSnulisaTvis,
Wmax=364.5 mln.m3- wyalsacavis maqsimaluri moculoba
wyalsacavis elementebi cxrili 1
#hdec
700- (m)
h180- hdec
(m) (km2)W
(Mm3) W/Wmax%
1 635 65 115 2.4 108.6 30.1
2 640 60 120 2.6 121.7 33.7
3 645 55 125 2.8 141.5 39.2
4 650 50 130 3.05 150.9 41.8
5 655 45 135 3.3 166.9 46.2
18
6 660 40 140 3.48 184.0 50.9
7 665 35 145 3.7 202.2 56.0
8 670 30 150 3.91 221.4 61.3
9 675 25 155 4.12 241.7 67.0
10 680 20 160 4.34 263.2 72.9
11 690 10 170 4.77 309.6 85.8
12 700 0 180 5.0 360.9 100.0
19
3. wyalsacavis forsirebuli damuSavebis pirobebi
xudonis wyalsacavi ganlagebulia mTian raionSi, viwro xeobaSi.
maRal niSnulebisaTvis xeobis ganivkveTis formas axasiaTebs
gaganiereba, ris gamo xdeba wyalsacavis moculobis mniSvnelovani
gazrda. wyalsacavis damuSavebisas wylis SedarebiT didi moculobebis
Cagdebis SemTxvevaSic, dawneva kaSxalze icvleba umniSvnelod
moculobebsa da siRrmeebs Soris aRniSnuli (saerTod, samTo
wyalsacavebis damaxasiaTebeli) specifikuri damokidebulebis gamo.
xudoni wyalsacavis SemTxvevisaTvis nax.6-ze warmodgenilia h da
W/Wmax sidideebs Soris arsebuli grafikuli damokidebuleba agebuli
cxr.1 moyvanili monacemebis mixedviT (sadac h – siRrmeebia kaSxalTan,
xolo W/Wmax – wyalsacavis Sevsebis xarisxi wyalsacavis damuSavebis
periodSi.
rogorc nax. 6-dan Cans, funqcia hd=f(W/Wmax) SeiZleba dayofil iqnes
miaxloebiT, sam a, b da C ubnad da Sesabamis areebad. are C SemTxvevaSi,
aRniSnuli damokidebuleba SeiZleba warmodgenili iqnas Semdegi wrfivi
funqciis saxiT
h=(h)0+tg 3(W/Wmax)
sadac 3 – am wrfis daxris kuTxea horizontTan.
analogiuri damokidebulebebi gveqneba b daa ubnebis SemTxvevaSic ( 2
da 1 – Sesabamisi daxris kuTxeebia).
amasTan, sruldeba Semdegi piroba: 3< 2< 1.
es niSnavs imas, rom mcire 3 kuTxis SemTxvevaSi, W/Wmax sididis
mniSvnelovani Semcirebisas (100-dan 50%-mde), dawneva kaSxalze (anu h
siRrme) SedarebiT mcired icvleba. amis sapirispirod, SedarebiT didi
kuTxis - 1 SemTxvevaSi, W/Wmax sididis mcire cvlileba iwvevs h
siRrmeebis mniSvnelovan Semcirebas.
maSasadame, aRniSnul C arisaTvis, romelic 3 kuTxiT xasiaTdeba,
wyalsacavis damuSavebis RonisZieba kaSxlis ngreviT gamowveuli
datborvis zonis Semcirebis miz-niT, araefeqturia, vinaidan am
SemTxvevaSi xdeba wylis gadagdeba didi raodenobiT, xolo dawnevis
20
sidide h (romelic ganapirobebs talRis sawyis maqsimalur simaRles da
Sesabamisad datborvis intensivobas) mcirdeba umniSvnelod.
a arisTvis, romelic 1 kuTxiT xasiaTdeba, wyalsacavis damuSavebis
procedura azrs kargavs, vinaidan wyali wyalsacavSi praqtikulad aRar
rCeba.
Fig.6 The relationship between the reservoir depth and its relativevolume (related to the reservoir optimal drawdown issue)
nax.6 damokidebuleba wyalsacavis siRrmesa da misi
fardobiT moculobas Soris (wyalsacavis optimaluri
damuSavebis sakiTxTan dakavSirebiT)
aqedan gamomdinare, wyalsacavis damuSavebis "optimalur ared", SeiZleba
CavTvaloT b are. am SemTxvevaSi, wyalsacavis SedarebiT naklebi in-
tensivobiT damuSavebisas (Sevsebis xarisxi W/Wmax icvleba 50-30%-is
farglebSi), dawnevis sidide kaSxalze mcirdeba ufro metad, vidre C
aris SemTxvevaSi. amgvarad, SeiZleba uzrunvelyofil iqnes, rogorc dat-
borvis aris Semcireba (W/Wmax=100%-iani Sevsebis SemTxvevebTan
21
SedarebiT), aseve kaSxlis mdgradobis uzrunvelyofis mizniT
wyalsacavSi wylis saWiro minimaluri maragis SenarCuneba.
aRniSnuli faqtoris gaTvaliswinebiT xudonis kaSxlis ngrevis Sem-
TxvevaSi, datborvis zonis Semcirebisa da realuri efeqtis
uzrunvelyofis mizniT SesaZleblad miviCnevT, rom sagangebo pirobebSi
wyalsacavis damuSaveba moxdes daaxloebiT H=635.0 niSnulamde. am
SemTxvveaSi wylis moculoba wyalsacavSi Seadgens W=108.6 mln.m3, xolo
damuSavebis siRrmea hdec=65.0 m (cxr.1). amasTan mkvdari moculobis didi
nawili SenarCunebuli iqneba kaSxlis mdgradobis uzrunvelsayofad.
4. xudonis kaSxlis garRveviT gamowveuli talRis qveda biefSi
transformaciis procesis maTematikuri modelireba
4.1. Ria kalapotebSi siTxis arastacionaruli moZraobis marCxi wylis
Teoriuli daSvebebi da diferencialuri
gantolebaTa sistemebi
ZiriTadi cnebebi da winamZRvrebi, romlebic gamoiyeneba mdinareebis
maTematikuri modelirebisas gamoxatulebas pouloben Ria kalapotebSi
siTxis arastacionaruli dinebis gantolebaTa saxiT. es gantolebebi
warmoadgenen rTuli hidrodinamikuri procesebis gamartivebul
modelebs da gamosaxaven am procesebze yvelaze ufro mniSvnelovani
faqtorebis gavlenas, amasTan ugulebelyofen meorexarisxovani
faqtorebis moqmedebas.
zemoT aRniSnuli (p.1) mw Teoriis safuZvelze arastacionaruli
dinebis gantolebebis miRebisas gamoiyeneba Semdegi daSvebebi:
1. dineba erTganzomilebiani e.i. siCqare ganivkveTSi mudmivia (ix.p.1) da
wylis done ganivi mimarTulebiT horizontaluria;
2. denis wirebis simrude mcirea anu dineba mdovred cvladia da ver-
tikaluri aCqarebebi umniSvneloa, Sesabamisad, wnevebi hidrostatiku-ria
22
3. kalapotis sazRvrebze xaxunis, agreTve turbulentobis gavlena
SeiZleba gaTvaliswinebul iqnes analogiurad imisa, rogorc es warmoebs
dinebis stacionaruli (damyarebuli) reJimis SemTxvevaSi;
4. kalapotis fskeris saSualo qanobi SedarebiT mcirea da Sesabamisad,
fskerisa da horizontals Soris arsebuli kuTxis ( ) kosinusi
SeiZleba miRebuli iqnes erTis tolia. aRvniSnoT, rom sxvadasxva tipis
dinebis Seswavlisas SeiZleba ganxilul iqnes iseTi kalapotebi,
romelTa ganivkveTebs axasiaTebs nebismieri da cvladi forma dinebis
gaswvrivi RerZis mimarT, magram ganivkveTis aseTi cvlileba ar unda
iyos mkveTri, rac ganpirobebulia zemoaRniSnuli denis wirebis mcire
simrudis moTxovniT.
4.2. maTematikuri modelirebis ganxorcielebis pirobebi
diferencialuri formiT warmodgenil uwyvetobis (masis Senaxvis) da
moZraobis raodenobis Senaxvis gantolebaTa sistemas, is SeeZleba
miRebul iqnes rogorc (1.1) da (1.2) saxiT, aseve u(x,t) da h(x,t) cvladebis
mimarT Caweril Semdegi gantolebebebis saSualebiT[15]
(5.1)
rogorc zemoT iyo aRniSnuli, diferencialur gantolebaTa sistema
(1.1-1.2) (an (5.1)), warmoadgens maTematikur models, romelic aRwers Ria
kalapotebSi wylis arastacionarul dinebas.
winamdebare proeqtSi aRniSnuli sistemis amoxsnis dros es ganto-
lebebi ganixileba Sesabamis sawyis da sasazRvro pirobebTan erTob-
livad. es pirobebi Semdegnairadaa warmodgenili:
I sawyisi pirobis dros, rodesact=0, mocemulia, rom
.0)ii(gxhg
xuu
tu
;0xb
uxhu
xu
bth
0f
consth
23
h=h1(x), rodesac xicvleba 0 X l0SualedSi;
II sasazRvro pirobis dros, rodesac x=0, mocemulia, rom q=q(t)
sadac l0 – aris zonkaris wyalsacavis sigrZe (anu manZili x=0 kveTidan
x =l0 kveTamde);
h1(x) – siRrmeebi xudoni wyalsacavis oTx kveTSi (1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4) (sadac
4-4 kaSxlis kveTia);
q(t) – wyalsacavis sawyis kveTSi (x=0) anu mdinaris SesarTavis kveTSi,
mdinare enguris xarji. saangariSo xarjia =2500 m3/wm (rac Seesabameba
0.001% uzrunvelyofis maqsimalur xarjs)
wyalsacavis moculoba miaxloebiT SeiZleba ganisazRvros zemoT
miRebuli da damokidebulebebis safuZvelze.
rac Seexeba am proeqts, wyalsacavis moculobis gaangariSeba
TiToeul siRrmisaTvis (wylis donisaTvis) warmoebda specialurad
damuSavebuli kompiuteruli qveprogramis saSualebiT, rac
uzrunvelyofda wyalsacavis moculobis gansazRvris sizustes.
kaSxlis ngreviT warmoqmnili talRis qveda biefSi gavrcelebis pro-
cesis maTematikuri modelirebis mizniT garda wyalsacavis moculobisa,
saWiroa gvqondes agreTve, md. enguris kalapotis ganivkveTebi talRis
gavrcelebis mTel trasaze.
winamdebare naSromSi miRebul talRis gavrcelebis kompiuterul
programaSi arsebuli topografiuli monacemebis CatvirTvis (gamoye-
nebis) mizniT, Sedgenil iqna am monacemebis interpolaciuri damuSavebis
specialuri qve-programebi.
es qveprogramebi saSualebas iZleva TiToeuli ganivkveTisaTvis ar-
sebuli monacemebis kompiuterul-interpolaciuri wesiT damuSavebis
Sedegad da am gziT miRebuli ramdenime aseulidan ramdenime aTaseuli
wertilis monacemebis bazaze, grafikulad gamovsaxoT mdinaris
kalapotis TiToeuli ganivkveTi im formiT, romelic maqsimalurad
uaxlovdeba bunebrivs da TiTqmis misi identuri xdeba. Sesabamisi
kompiuteruli damuSavebis Sedegad ganxorcielebulia agreTve, sivrceSi
am ganivkveTebis dakavSirebis procedura anu mdinaris mTliani
kalapotis grafikuli aproqsimacia talRis gavrcelebis mTel sigrZeze
(nax.7). topografiuli monacemebis aRniSnuli kompiuteruli damuSavebis
axali meTodis gamoyeneba emsaxureba, gansaxilveli procesis
24
maTematikuri modelirebis, Zvel meTodTan SedarebiT ufro maRali
sizustiT ganxorcielebas.
proeqtSi gamoyenebuli sasrul sxvaobiTi meTodis gamoyenebisas miRe-
buli saangariSo sqemis Sesaxeb mokled aRvniSnoT Semdegi. rogorc
cnobilia [15], `cxadi sxvaobiTi sqemebis~ gamoyenebisas hidravlikuri
cvlilebis gansazRvra romelime drois doneze, saerTod warmoebs im
monacemebis safuZvelze, romlebic cnobilia drois wina doneze (wina
wertilebSi). laqsivendorfis sqemis Tanaxmad, gamoTvlebi warmoebs e.w.
or-bijiani sqemiT [15]. am SemTxvevaSi pirvel saangariSo bijze warmoebs
saZiebeli funqciis -is Sualeduri mniSvnelobis gansazRvra j+(1/2) da
n+(1/2) wertilebSi, xolo meore bijze funqciis am Sualeduri mniSv-
nelobis saSualebiT funqciis povna drois axali (n+1) donisaTvis.
zemoaRniSnulis Tanaxmad, gaTvlebis pro-cedura ase SeiZleba warmovid-
ginoT
winamdebare proeqtSi ganxorcielda aRniSnuli laqsivendrofis saan-
gariSo sqemis modifikacia, saxeldobr Cven vsargeblobdiT Semdegi sqe-
miT
am SemTxvevaSi miRebuli funqciis safuZvelze xdeboda
gaangariSeba funqciis, romelic Seesabameboda drois wina dones,
Semdegi gamosaxulebis saSualebiT
winamdebare proeqtis Sesrulebisas damkveTTan SeTanxmebiT
miRebul iqna sagangebo situaciaSi xudonis betonis TaRovani kaSxlis
TandaTanobiTi da nawilobrivi ngrevis (ix.nax.8) Semdegi sqema:
sawyis momentSi wyalsacavis 100%-ani Sevsebisas (anu nSd dros) kaSxlis
Sua nawilSi mTel mis simaRleze warmoiqmneba garRveva, romlis sigane
Seadgens kaSxlis Txemis sigrZis daaxloebiT 20%; 7.5 wuTis Semdeg
njF
1njF
1nj
)2/t(II21n
21j
)2/t(Inj FFF bijibiji
2nj
)t(II1n
21j
)t(Inj FFF bijibiji
2njF
1njF
2FF
F2n
jnj1n
j
25
kaSxlis garRvevis sigane izrdeba 0.3 , xolo momdevno 7.5 wuTSi aRwevs-
04 Semdeg wyalsacavis daclis mTeli xnis ganmavlobaSi garRvevis
sigane mudmivi rCeba.
50% da 30% Sevsebis dros miRebuli saangariSo sqemis mixedviT
garRvevis sigane dasawyisidanve aRwevda 0.4 da Semdeg cvlilebas ar
ganicdida.
26
nax. 7. kalapotis aproqsimacia or kveTs Soris kompiuteruli
interpolaciis meTodiT algeTis hidrokvanZis magaliTze
Fig. 7. Approximation the river channel between two cross-section used the computational interpotation method for Algeti hydro-works
27
l d
0.2l
d
0.3l
d
0.
4ld
Fig.
8 T
he d
esig
n sc
hem
e of
the
brea
k fo
rmat
ion
in th
e K
hudo
ni d
am
nax.8
saangariSo
sqema
garRvevis
warmoqmnisa
xudonis
kaSxalSi
28
4.3. maTematikuri modelis ricxviTi realizaciis Sedegebi
xudoni kaSxlis ngreviT gamowveuli talRis hidrokvanZis qveda
biefSi gavrcelebis procesis maTematikuri modelirebis Sedegebi
dawvrilebiT aris warmodgenili qvemoT moyvanili grafikuli masalisa
da Sesabamisi cxrilebis saxiT. grafikuli masala Seexeba mdinare
enguris sxvadasxva kveTSi (ix. danarTi 1) talRis parametrebis
cvlilebas diskretuli droisa da sivrcis (x – koordinatTa RerZis)
mixedviT.
talRis qveda biefSi zemoqmedebis Sedegebi TiToeul kveTSi
xasiaTdeba iseTi parametrebiT rogoricaa:
1. h – talRis simaRle (an datborvis siRrme);
2. u – talRis siCqare (mudmivi sididea TiToeul ganivkveTSi drois
mocemul momentSi);
3. q=u – nakadis xarji;
4. (x) – talRis profili;
5. B datborvis zonis sigane (nakadis zedapiris donis niSnulze).
danarTSi 2 moyvanilia yvela kveTisaTvis aRniSnuli parametrebis
maxasiaTebeli grafikebi, saxeldobr h=f1(t)u=f2(t),q=f3(t),B=f(t),
damokidebulebis grafikebi, agreTve =f(x) talRis profilebi mdinaris
kalapotis gaswvriv sxvadasxva drois momentisaTvis. yvela es monacemi
miRebulia wyalsacavis Sevsebis (anu damuSavebis) sami SemTxvevisaTvis,
rodesac W/Wmax=100%, 50% da 30%.
danarTSi 3 gamoyenebuli aRniSvnebi warmoadgenen:
hmax – datborvis maqsmialur siRrmes (talRis maqsimalur simaRles);
tmax – talRis Txemis mocemul kveTSi mosvlis drois moments;
tst – talRis frontis mosvlis moments;
tend – talRis bolo nawilis (kudis) mosvlis moments;
tpr – drois im periods, romelic sWirdeba talRas, rom mTlianad
gaiaros kveTSi.
da datborvis zonis sigane wyalsacavis 100% da 30% Sevdebisas
29
cxril 3.2Si (danarTi 3) moyvanili monacemebi Seesabameba kaSxlis
ngreviT ganpirobebuli nakadis (talRis) parametrebis maqsimalur
mniSvnelobebs.
amave danarT 3-Si (cxr. 3.4) moyvanilia agreTve, monacemebi
(procentuli gamoxatulebiT), romlebic axasiaTeben Setborvis xarisxis
Semcirebas wyalsacavis 30%-iani Sevsebisas (100% SevsebasTan SedarebiT).
daskvnebi
1. ganxilulia is Teoriuli midgomebi da daSvebebi, romlebic gamo-
iyeneba talRuri moZraobis Semswavlel TeoriebSi, kerZod wrfiv, mcire
amplitudis talRebis (mat) da arawrfiv marCxi wylis (mw) TeoriebSi.
mat Teoriis safuZvelze SeiZleba Seswavlil iqnas hidrodinamikuri
(talRuri) procesebi hidrokvanZis zeda biefSi (wyalsacavSi). xolo mw
Teoriis safuZvelze – qveda biefSi, kerZod kaSxlis ngreviT ganpi-
robebuli maRali talRis gavrcelebis procesi.
2. kaSxlis zeda qimTan mimdebare ubnis ngrevis Sedegad iqmneba
garkveuli drois ganmavlobaSi, kaSxlis intensiuri warecxvis (gruntis
kaSxlebis SemTxvevaSi), mTlianad ngrevisa da qveda biefSi maRali
talRis gavrcelebis safrTxe. ufro katastrofuli Sedegebia
mosalodneli kaSxlis myisieri, mTel simaRleze garRvevis SemTxvevaSi,
amitom, am dros warmoqmnili damangreveli talRis parametrebisa da misi
zemoqmedebis maTematikuri prognozireba umniSvnelovanes socialur da
ekologiur amocanas warmoadgens.
3. Cvens mier miRebulia marCxi wylis (mw) arawrfivi Teoriis
safuZvelze Ria kalapotebSi arastacionaruli erTganzomilebiani
dinebis diferencialuri gantolebebis sistemis diskretuli amonaxsni
(sasrul-sxvaobiTi meTodis saSualebiT), kaSxlis ngreviT warmoqmnili
talRis qveda biefSi gavrcelebis gaangariSebis mizniT. amasTan,
ganxorcielda laqsivendrofis cxadi sxvaobiTi sqemis modifikacia,
ramac uzrunvelyo gaangariSebis procesSi cdomilebaTa dagrovebis
minimumamde dayvana da miRebuli Sedegebis praqtikuli sizuste. es
kerZod, dadasturebul iqna aRniSnuli sqemis safuZvelze Catarebuli
30
Teoriuli gaangariSebaTa Sedegebisa da arsebuli eqsperimentaluri
monacemebis Sedarebis safuZvelze , garda amisa, proeqtSi
gaangariSebebiT miRebuli nakadis xar-jis droSi cvlilebis
damokidebulebis (q=f(t)) analizma aCvena, rom am damokidebulebis droSi
integrebis (wyalsacavis mTlianad daclis xangrZlivobis intervalSi)
Sedegad miiReba kaSxlis ngrevis momentSi wyalsacavSi arsebuli wylis
moculobis mniSvneloba, rac agreTve, metyvelebs proeqtSi
ganxorcielebuli maTematikuri modelirebis koreqtulobaze da
ricxviTi realizaciis Sedegebis sakmaris sizusteze.
4. mdinare enguris kalapotis maxasiaTebeli topografiuli
monacemebis talRis transformaciis kompiuterul programaSi CatvirTvis
mizniT, Sedgenil iqna am monacemebis interpolaciuri damuSavebis
specialuri qveprogramebi. amis Sedegad, wyalsacavisa da kalapotis
yvela ganivkveTi gamosaxuli iqna im formiT, rome-lic maqsimalurad
uaxlovdeba bunebrivs, (TiTqmis misi identuri xdeba). ganxorcielebulia
agreTve, sivrceSi am ganivkveTebis dakavSirebis kom-piuteruli
procedura anu mdinaris mTliani kalapotis grafikuli ap-roqsimacia
talRis gavrcelebis mTel sigrZeze. (nax. 7).
proeqtSi topografiuli monacemebis damuSavebis aRniSnuli axali me-
Todis gamoyeneba emsaxureba gansaxilveli procesis maTematikuri mode-
lirebis ganxorcielebas, Zvel meTodTan SedarebiT, ufro didi
sizustiT.
5. proeqtSi, talRuri nakadis gavrcelebis detaluri maTematikuri
prognozirebis mizniT, warmodgenilia TiToeuli kveTisaTvis am nakadis
yvela parametris (h – nakadis siRrme; u – siCqare; q – xarji; talRis
profili; B – datborvis zonis sigane) t- droze da x – grZiv
koordinatze damokidebulebis grafikebi. gaTvlebi Catarebulia kaSxlis
ngrevis momentSi wyalsacavSi arsebuli wylis Sevsebis (an wyalsacavis
damuSavebis) odenobis sami SemTxvevisaTvis: 100%, 50% da 30%. ukanaskneli
SemTxveva pasuxobs wyalsacavSi wylis Sevsebis "optimalur" dones,
vinaidan am dros qveda biefSi datborvis xarisxi sagrZnobad mcirdeba,
xolo wyalsacavSi rCeva kaSxlis mdgradobis SenarCunebis miznebisaTvis
saWiro minimaluri wylis raodenoba. wyalsacavis 30%-ani damuSavebisas
datborvis zona mcirdeba saSualod 30%-iT. rac Seexeba wyalsacavis 50%
31
damuSavebas, misi praqtikuli mniSvneloba datborvis zonis Semcirebis
TvalsazrisiT, mcirea.
6. xudonis kaSxlis rRvevis gamo warmoqmnili katastrofuli nakadis
enguris wyalsacavSi Semodinebis Sedegad masSi warmoiqmneba iseTi
msxvilmasStabiani, intensiuri hidrodinamikuri procesebi rogoricaa-
wylis Setborva, talRuri ryevebi, talRebis arekvlebi, ukudinebebi,
talRebis perioduli gadaRvra kaSxlis Txemze. pirveli-yvelaze
intensiuri gadaRvra da am dros gadaRvrili wylis moculoba Seadgens
daaxloebiT 170 mln m3 (wyalsacavis 100%-iani Sevsebisas). Semdgomi
gadaRvrebi nakleb intensiuria da isini aq ar ganixileboda.
7. xudonis kaSxlis rRvevis Sedegad warmoqmnili nakadis simaRle masTan
axlomdebare kveTebSi aRwevs daaxloebiT 70m, siCqareebi 40-50m/wm.
enguris kaSxlidan gadaRvrili talRis parametrebis mniSvnelobebi
ufro dabalia aRniSnulTan SedarebiT, magram mniSvnelovan sidideebs
aRweven. talRa mcirdeba mas Semdeg rac Semodis md. enguris qveda welSi
ganlagebul vrcel dablobze, romelic erTi mxridan SemosazRvrulia
mcire simaRlis mTebis zoliT, meore mxridan-irigaciuli arxiT; mesame
mxares mas zRvis sanapiro zoli esazRvreba. es teritoria Seadgens
daaxloebiT 540km2. talRis gavrcelebis Sedegad is daitboreba 0m wylis
sisqis SriT, romlis simaRle daaxloebiT 1.5 sT Semdeg daiwyebs klebas.
amgvarad aq katastrofuli Sedegebi ar aris mosalodneli.
32
literatura
1. Construction standards and regulations (SNiP II-7-81). Construction in seismic areas. Design standards. M. Constr. Publishing House, 1982 (in Russian).
2. Calculation of seismic loads when designing hydraulic structures. Manual to 5GTS SNiP II-7-81.L.1986 (in Russian).
3. Manual for computation of parameters of waves generating in reservoirs in presence of landslide and collapse phenomena. Gosstroi GSSR. Tbilisi, 1986 (in Russian).
4. Manual for determining loads and impacts on hydraulic structures. L.1977 (in Russian).
5. Mamradze G.P., Gvelesiani T.L., Jinjikhashvili G.Ia. Forecast of waves in reservoirs under seismic action M. Energoatomizdat, 1991 (in Russian).
6. IVK and computer in hydraulic researches. Georgian Scientific-Research Institute of Power Engineering and Hydraulic Structures (GruzNIIEGS) Tbilisi, 1986 (in Russian).
7. Gvelesiani T.L., Ostroverkh B.N. et al. Prediction of wave formation in mountain reservoirs during landsfalls and landslides. Power technology and Engineering. Spronger New York. vol.23, No12, 1989 (ISSN 1570-145X).
8. Gvelesiani T. et al. Analysis of wave processes in reservoirs due to earthquakes. XXXI IAHR Congress. Sep.11-16, Seoul, Korea, 2005. Poster session PE-1.
9. Gvelesiani T., Huber A., Koutitas Ch., Matcharadze G. Extreme wave transients in reservoirs, characteristics and interaction with dams. Taylor and Trancis Group. London. 2004. (ISBN 9058096327).
10. Istorik B.L., Liakhter V.M. Distribution of the abrupt wave in a prismatic channel. Flid and gas mechanics. 1. 1975 (in Russian).
11. Gvazava G.N., Kvaratskhelia L.L., Muzaev I.D. Study of abrupt waves transformation in the hydraulic works down stream. Water resources. Moscow 3, 1981 (in Russian).
12. Mishuev A.V. et al. Theoretical analysis of waves reflection at the interaction of an abrupt wave with spill way. Hydraulics of hydraulic structures and hydraulic power plants. Moscow. 1983 (in Russian).
13. Stoker J.J. Water waves. New York. 1957. 14. Gvelesiani T,Palavandishvili G et al. Forecast of impact in downstreams
caused by Algeti and Sioni dams failure. Energy Tbilisi 4(48) 2008 (ISSN 1512-0120) (in Georg.)
15. Cunge J.A., Holly F.M., Verwey A. Practical Aspects of -Computational river hydraulics. London. 1980.
33
16. Jeffreys H., Swiries B. Methods of Mathematical Physics. Vo Campridge Univ. Press. 1966. Korn G.A. and Korn T.M. Mathematical Handbook for scientists and engineers. McGraw-Hill Book Company. New York – Toronto – London. 1961.
17. Mays L.W. Water resources engineering. John Wiley and sons. Inc. 2005. 18. Schemes of water protection measures related to the Algeti and Zonkari
reservoirs. “GRUZVODKHOZ” Tbilisi, 1985 19. Gvelesiani T. Theory of wave generation in application to the hydroecological
problems. “Universal” Tbilisi, 2009 (in Russian). 20. Gvelesiani T. Mathematical models of transient waves generation in problems
of environment. Studio Fresco Publishers. Tel-Aviv, 2010
34
d a n a r T e b i
A P P E N D I C I E S
35
danarTi 1
APPENDIX 1
topografiuli monacemebis interpolaciuri meTodiT damuSavebis Sedegebi
(mdinaris kalapotis ganivkveTebi)
THE RESULS OF TOPOGRAFICAL DATA PROCESSING DEVELOPED BY THE INTERPOLATIONAL
METHOD (RIVER CHANNEL CROSS-SECTIONS)
36
cxrili: 1.1
# kveTi fskeris
niSnuli
manZili
sawyis
kveTidan
(m)
manZili
kveTebs
Soris
(m)
1 4 1150.0 4100 4100
2 5 1084.0 8300 4200
3 6 1036.0 11700 3400
4 7 993.0 14400 2700
5 8 947.0 17700 3300
6 9 895.0 21350 3650
7 10 805.0 27500 6150
8 11 760.0 30800 3300
9 12 717.0 34400 3600
10 13 664.0 40200 5800
11 14 627.0 45200 5000
12 15 603.0 48550 3350
13 16 575.0 53350 4800
14 17 568.0 55850 2500
15 18 555.0 60500 4650
16 19 551.6 61850 1350
17 20 543.5 64900 3050
37
danarTi 2
APPENDIX 2
nakadis maxasiaTeblebi
FLOW CHARACTERISTICS
38
danarTi 3
APPENDIX 3
Semajamebeli monacmebi (cxrili1-cxrili3)
GENERALIZED DATA (TABLE 1-TABLE 3)
PTRANS ELECTRICA GEORGIA LTD.
xudonhesis proeqtis sagangebo situaciaSi samoqmedo gegmis
mosamzadebeli masalebis damuSaveba
SemuSavebulia konsultantis, mecn.akad.doqt. ivane nonievis mier
Prepared by consultant Ivan Noniev, PhD.
12/27/2011
naSromSi damuSavebulia xudonis kaSxlis usafrTxoebis sakiTxebi, kerZoT momzadebulia da
SemoTavazebulia gansaxilvelad kaSxlis SesaZlo ngrevis SemTxvevaSi sagangebo situaciis
samoqmedo gegmis konceptualuri safuZvlebi
2
sarCevi
xudonhesis proeqtis sagangebo situaciaSi samoqmedo gegmis (EAP) mosamzadebeli masalebis damuSaveba ....................................................................................................... 4
Sesavali ............................................................................................................................................................................... 4
kaSxlis dazianebis (dangrevis) riski ............................................................................................... 4
xudonhesis proeqtis sagangebo situaciaSi samoqmedo gegma (EAP) ................... 6 I. xudonis kaSxlis ZiriTadi saproeqto monacemebi ........................................................... 6
II. xudonis kaSxlis sagangebo RonisZiebaTa gegmis ganxorcielebis
xuTbijiani proeqti .................................................................................................................................................. 7
2.1. biji 1. xdomilebis aRmoCena .............................................................................................................. 7
2.1.2 biji 2. sagangebo situaciis donis gansazRvra ............................................................ 8
2.1..3. biji 3 Setyobineba da komunikacia ......................................................................................... 11
2.1.4. biji 4. gasaTvaliswinebeli qmedebebi ................................................................................. 15
2.1.5. biji 5. dasruleba ................................................................................................................................... 19
III. prevenciuli RonisZiebebi ......................................................................................................................... 24
IV. prevenciuli RonisZiebebis efeqturoba ..................................................................................... 26
V. Setyobinebebis sistemis organizacia ............................................................................................ 27
cxrili 1. ...................................................................................................................................................................... 28
VI. sakomunikacio sistema ................................................................................................................................. 29
cxrili 2. ..................................................................................................................................................................... 29
VII. datborvis zonaSi Sesvlis organizacia................................................................................. 33
VIII. organizaciuli RonisZiebebi Ramis saaTebSi .................................................................... 35
IX. samuSaoTa organizacia araxelsayrel klimatur pirobebSi................................ 35
X. sagangebo situaciebSi mosaxleobis uzrunvelyofa dacvis saSualebiT .. 36
XI. kooperaciis organizacia ......................................................................................................................... 37
cxrili 3. kooperaciis Tanmimdevroba kaSxlis ngrevis safrTxis
SemTxvevaSi ................................................................................................................................................................. 38
XII. menejmentis organizacia .......................................................................................................................... 39
XIII. sagangebo situaciebSi samoqmedo gegmis srulyofa .................................................. 39
XIV. mosaxleobis evakuaciis winapirobebi ...................................................................................... 40
XV. daskvnebi da rekomendaciebi ............................................................................................................... 41
danarTi ............................................................................................................................................................................... 42
danarTi # 1 ..................................................................................................................................... .......................... 43
3
sagangebo situaciebSi moqmedebis gegmis amocana ............................................................... 43
danarTi # 2 .............................................................................................................................................................. 44
moTxovnebi xudonis kaSxlis usafrTxoebis gegmis mimarT ....................................... 44
danarTi # 3 .............................................................................................................................................................. 45
1. mizani .......................................................................................................................................................................... 45
2. sawyisi monacemebi .......................................................................................................................................... 45
3. prevenciuli RonisZiebebi ...................................................................................................................... 46
3.1. adrindeli Setyobinebis sistemis (EWS) organizacia ...................................... 46 3.2. sakomunikacio (kavSirgabmulobis) sistema ................................................................... 47
3.3. datborvis zonaSi Sesvlis organizacia ........................................................................ 47
3.4. organizaciuli RonisZiebebi Ramis saaTebSi ............................................................. 47
3.5. samuSaoTa organizacia araxelsayrel klimatur pirobebSi ..................... 48
3.6. damcavi RonisZiebebi mosaxleobisaTvis .......................................................................... 48
3.7. kooperaciis organizacia ............................................................................................................... 49
3.8. koordinaciis organizacia ........................................................................................................... 49
3.9. sagangebo pirobebSi mzadyofnis gegmis srulyofis procedura ............ 49
danarTi # 4 .............................................................................................................................................................. 51
SeTanxmeba ganaTebis saSualebaTa uzrunvelyofis Taobaze ............................... 51
danarTi # 5 .............................................................................................................................................................. 52
sagangebo situaciis donis gansazRvris wesebi ................................................................ 52
danarTi 6 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 55
danarTi 7 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 56
danarTi 8 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 57
danarTi 9 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 58
danarTi 10 ................................................................................................................................................................... 59
danarTi 11 .................................................................................................................................................................... 60
4
xudonhesis proeqtis sagangebo situaciaSi samoqmedo gegmis
(EAP) mosamzadebeli masalebis damuSaveba
Sesavali kaSxlis dazianebis (dangrevis) riski
kaSxlis dazianeba (dangreva) potencialurad katastrofis tolfasia
misi Sedegebidan gamomdinare.
riskis Semcireba: maRali xarisxis proeqti, romelic iTvaliswinebs
mdinaris maqsimalur xarjs da aseve xarisxiani mSenebloba. kaSxali unda
iyos aRWurvili instrumentaluri monitoringis sistemiT uwyveti
dakvirvebebis CatarebisaTvis da iyos regularuli zedamxedvelobis qveS
damoukidebeli eqspertebis mier, romlebsac unda gaaCndeT Zalaufleba,
raTa maTi rekomendaciebi upirobod iyos Sesrulebuli da gaTvalis-
winebuli rogorc mSeneblobis, aseve eqspluataciis periodSi. obieqtis
eqspluatacias unda eweodes kargad momzadebuli personali, romelic
pirnaTlad da zustad asrulebs teqnikuri instruqciebis moTxovnebs.
obieqtze unda arsebobdes moqmedebis gegmebi arasaStato da sagangebo
situaciebis SemTxvevaSi (Setyobineba, gangaSi da evakuacia, mosaxleobis da
infrastruqturis dacvis RonisZiebebi da a.S.). obieqtis dazianebis
SemTxvevaSi sagangebo situaciis zona unda iyos aRWurvili adrindeli
Setyobinebis sistemiT.
winamdebare naSromis mizania damuSavdes mosamzadebeli masalebi
xudonis kaSxlis (md. engurze) proeqtisaTvis misi dazianebis SemTxvevaSi
sagangebo situaciis samoqmedo gegmisaTvis (EAP). proeqtis am etapze am
gegmis ConCxis damuSaveba iqneba savsebiT sakmarisi imis gaTvaliswinebiT,
rom saboloo damtkicebuli varianti unda arsebobdes obieqtze mSene-
blobis damTavrebis Semdeg. aq iqneba gaTvaliswinebuli axali realobebi,
5
romelic moyva mSeneblobis process da eqspluataciis sawyis etaps
(garemos da infrastruqturis cvlileba, axali dasaxlebebis gaCena,
kaSxlis, misi fuZis da wyalsacavis napirebis qceva da mdgomareoba dat-
virTvebis da zemoqmedebebis qveS monitoringis Sedegebze datyrdnobid da
a.S.).
sawyisi monacemebi am gegmis (EAP) SemuSavebisaTvis moyvanilia
qvemoT:
1. xudonis kaSxlis teqnikuri parametrebi;
2. datborvis zonis parametrebi kaSxlis ngrevis Sedegad im SemTxvevaSi,
rodesac wyalsacavi savsea da mdinareSi maqsimaluri xarjia (rukebi
da cxrilebi);
3. moTxovnebi kaSxlis usafrTxoebis gegmis mimarT;
4. wyalsacavis saangariSo parametrebi da maregulirebeli sistemebis
saSualebebi;
5. statistikuri monacemebi datborvis zonaSi mosaxleobis, sasoflo-
sameurneo miwebis, dawesebulebebisa da momsaxurebis obieqtebis
Sesaxeb;
6. monacemebi raionSi arsebuli janmrTelobis dacvis SesaZleblobaTa
Sesaxeb;
7. ruka masStabiT 1:50000, xudonis kaSxlis ganTavsebis teritoriis
aRniSvnebi:
DE –Dam Engineer, kaSxlis usafrTxoebaze pasuxismgebeli inJineri;
MoE – The regional Ministry of Emergencies, Sinagan saqmeTa saministros sagangebo situaciebis departamentis regionaluri sammarTveloebi;
EAP – Emergency Action Plan, sagangebo situaciis samoqmedo gegma;
EWS – Early Warning System, adrindeli Setyobinebis sistema.
6
xudonhesis proeqtis sagangebo situaciaSi samoqmedo gegma
(EAP)
I. xudonis kaSxlis ZiriTadi saproeqto monacemebi
gansaxilveli sagangebo situaciis reagirebis gegmis damuSavebis
TvalsazrisiT xudonis kaSxali iqneba ganTavsebuli zRvis donidan 501 -
702m-s niSnulTa SualedSi geometruli parametrebiT:
a) HkaSxlis tipi betonis TaRovani kaSxali
b) samSeneblo simaRle 200.5 m
v) sigrZe Txemze 522 m
g) sigane Txemze 9.0 m
d) sigane saZirkvelSi 42.0 m
xudonis wyalsacavis wylis sarkis farTi Seadgens 528 ha. wyalsacavis
moculoba maqsimaluri Setborvis dros Seadgens 364,5 mln. m3. maT
Soris sasargeblo moculobaa 223 mln. m3.
xudonis hidrokvanZs gaaCnia Semdegi wyalgamtari saSualebebi:
saderivacio gvirabi (wyalsacavis marcxena napirze) maqsimaluri
gamtarianobiT 1030m3/wm, kaSxlis Txemze centralur nawilSi da
marcxena napirize ganlagebuli wyalsagdebebi, agreTve siRrmuli
wyalsagdebi, romlebmac Tavisi jamuri gamtarianobiT unda uzrunvelyon
md. enguris maqsimaluri xarjis 2500m3/wm gatareba qveda biefSi.
xudonis TaRovani kaSxalis konstruqcia gaTvlilia 9-baliani
intensivobis miwiszvris zemoqmedebaze.
7
prevenciuli RonisZiebebis damuSaveba xorcieldeba kaSxlis ngrevis
gaTvaliswinebiT, vinaidan, rogorc cnobilia, mis ngrevas Tan sdevs
katastrofuli Sedegebi.
Sesabamisi prevenciuli RonisZiebebis Catareba aucilebelia
saTanado gegmis Sesabamisad, amasTan erTad nagebobis ngrevis riski
ganisazRvreba riskfaqtorebis da kaSxlis garRveviT gamowveuli nakadis
gavrcelebis hidravlikuri parametrebis, agreTve datborvis zonis
Sesaxeb statistikuri monacemebis safuZvelze.
II. xudonis kaSxlis sagangebo RonisZiebaTa gegmis ganxorcielebis xuTbijiani proeqti
2.1. biji 1. xdomilebis aRmoCena
nax.1 moyvanilia xudonis kaSxlisaTvis SemoTavazebuli sagangebo
situaciis samoqmedo gegmis (EAP) xuTbijiani sqema, romelic miRebulia
saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi. biji 1 aRwers araordinarul an sagangebo
situacias da Seicavs informacias, romelic daexmareba xudonis kaSxlis
operators gansazRvros Sesabamisi sagangebo done mocemul SemTxvevaSi.
araordinaruli da sagangebo xdomilebebi SeiZleba gamovlenili iqnas:
- vizualuri dakvirvebebiT kaSxalze an kaSxlis siaxloves
samTavrobo organoebis (adgilobrivi, sagubernio an centraluri),
miwaTmflobelebis, kaSxlis meTvalyureebis an sazogadoebis
warmomadgenlebis mier;
- instrumentuli dakvirvebebis monacemTa SefasebiT;
- sagrZnobi miwisZvrisas an kaSxlis siaxloves mis Sesaxeb
SetyobinebiT;
8
- gafrTxilebiT im pirobebis Sesaxeb, romelsac SeuZlia
araordinaruli an sagangebo situaciis gamowveva kaSxalze (mag.
mkacri amindi an uecari wyalmovardnis prognozi).
2.1.2 biji 2. sagangebo situaciis donis gansazRvra
mas Semdeg rac araordinaruli an sagangebo situacia dafiqsirebulia
an mis Sesaxeb Setyobineba arsebobs, kaSxlis operatori pasuxismgebelia
mocemuli SemTxvevis klasifikaciaze (ix. “sagangebo donis gansazRvris
saxelmZRvanelos” cxrili, danarTi 5, romelic dagexmarebaT garkveuli
xdomilebis SefasebaSi, raTa gaarkvioT, aris Tu ara mocemuli xdomileba
araordinaruli an potenciurad SeuZlia Tu ara mas iyos sagangebo
situaciis mizezi) erT-erTi sagangebo doniT Semdegi samidan:
sagangebo done 11 _ arakritikuli araordinaruli SemTxveva, romelic nela
viTardeba: es situacia ar aris normaluri, Tumca jer kidev ar emuqreba
kaSxlis eqspluatacias an mis struqturul mTlianobas, magram Tu es
viTareba gagrZeldeba, maSin man SeiZleba safrTxe Seuqmnas zemoTaRniSnuls.
teqnikuri daxmarebisaTvis saWiroa dakavSireba kaSxlis usafrTxoebis
inJinerTan an saxelmwifo moxelesTan, raTa gamokvleuli iqnas situacia
da miRebul iqnas samoqmedo rekomendaciebi. kaSxlis mdgomareoba
detalurad unda iqnas Semowmebuli, gansakuTrebiT talRebis
zemoqmedebisas, raTa gamovlindes nebismieri xdomileba, romelsac SeuZlia
potenciurad an gardauvlad gamoiwvios kaSxlis mtyuneba. adgilobriv
samarTaldamcavTa warmomadgenelma unda Seatyobinos Tavis xelmZRvanelobas
Seqmnili situaciis Sesaxeb, raTa miRebuli iqnas gadawyvetileba, vinaidan
SesaZloa movlenebi ganviTardes uaresi scenariT, rac moiTxovs sagangebo
RonisZiebaTa gatarebas.
9
nax.1
xudonis kaSxlis sa
sqema
10
sagangebo done 2 – is potenciurad SesaZlebeli mtyunebis
Semcveli situaciis swrafi ganviTareba:
am situaciam saboloo angariSiT SeiZleba gamoiwvios is
mtyuneba da qveda biefis uecari datborva, magram uSualod is
garRvevis safrTxe ar arsebobs. normatiuli dokumentebi unda iyos
daregistrirebuli am sagangebo situaciis Tanaxmad da gaices gangaSis
signali. kaSxlis operatori axlodan unda akontrolebdes nagebobis
mdgomareobas da periodulad acnobebdes situaciis ganviTarebis Sesaxeb
samarTaldamcav organos TanamSromlebs. Tu kaSxlis mdgomareoba uaresdeba
da mtyuneba gardauvalia, Sesabamisma samsaxurebma dauyovnebliv unda
daafiqsiron sagangebo donis cvlileba, raTa moaxdinon qveda biefSi
myofi adamianebis evakuacia.
Tu dro iZleva amis saSualebas, maSin teqnikuri daxmarebisaTvis
saWiroa mimarTva kaSxlebis usafrTxoebaze pasuxismgebel saxelmwifo
moxeleebisaTvis, raTa Sefasdes da rekomendebul iqnas aRdgeniTi
samuSaoebis Catareba kaSxlis rRvevis Tavidan asacleblad. kaSxlis
operatorma unda daiwyos aRdgeniTi-saremonto samuSaoebi (gamoiyenos
adgilobrivi, misTvis xelmisawvdomi resursebi). aRdgeniTi samuSaoebis
warmoebisaTvis gamoyofili drois intervali SeiZleba ganisazRvros
ramodenime saaTiT an dRiT.
es sagangebo done, agreTve eTanadeba im situacias, roca nakadi
gadaedineba kaSxalze an analogiuri mosalodnelia da SeuZlia
wyaldidobis gamowveva qveda biefSi, rac safrTxes Seuqmnis iq myof
adamianebsa da ganlagebul obieqtebs. avariuli samsaxurebi unda iqnas
mobilizebuli gangaSis gamocxadebiT, raTa droulad daiwyon evakuacia da
11
moawyon zRudarebi (dabrkolebebi) wyaldidobis gavrcelebis gzaze, im
SemTxvevaSi, Tu wylis done ganagrZobs awevas.
sagangebo done 3 – kaSxlis uecari (swrafi) mtyuneba gardauvalia an
mas ukve aqvs adgili. es – sagangebo, uecari situaciaa, roca
wyalSemtbori nagebobis mtyuneba saxezea an aSkaraa, rom aseTi xdomileba
SeiZleba moxdes da misi Tavidan acileba SeuZlebelia. garRvevis talRa
(wyalmovardna) gavrceldeba kaSxlis qveda biefSi. analogiuri scenariT
ganviTardeba movlenebi maSinac, roca nakadi gaarRvevs kaSxals da qveda
biefis adamianebiT dasaxlebul da ganviTarebuli infrastruqturis zonaSi
gamoiwvevs wyaldidobas. aucilebelia samarTaldamcav organoebTan
dauyovnebliv dakavSireba, raTa saavario samsaxurebma daiwyon adamianebis
evakuacia yvela saxifaTo adgilidan da aucileblobis SemTxvevaSi
gadaketon gzebi.
sagangebo done 1: nela ganviTarebadi (progresirebadi), arakritikuli,
araordinaruli) SemTxveva;
sagangebo done 2: swrafad ganviTarebadi (progresirebadi), kaSxlis
potenciuri mtyunebis Semcveli SemTxveva;
sagangebo done 3: kaSxlis mtyuneba gardauvalia an mas ukve aqvs
adgili.
2.1..3. biji 3 Setyobineba da komunikacia
Setyobineba:
sagangebo donis gansazRvris Semdeg, qvemoT moyvanili Sesabamisi
sagangebo donis sqemis Tanaxmad mosaxleoba dauyovnebliv unda iyos
gafrTxilebuli.
12
komunikacia:
sagangebo done 1: nela ganviTarebadi (progresirebadi), arakritikuli,
araordinaruli SemTxveva:
kaSxlis operatori da mesakuTre unda daukavSirdes nagebobis inJinrebs da
kaSxalTa usafrTxoebis specialistebs. aRuweros maT Seqmnili situacia
da sTxovos teqnikuri daxmareba saWiro RonisZiebebis gasatareblad.
sagangebo done 2: swrafad ganviTarebadi (progresirebadi), wyalSemtbori
nagebobis potenciuri mtyunebis Semcveli SemTxveva:
gamoyenebuli unda iqnas qvemoTmoyvanili saxis Setyobineba, raTa
oficialurma da mmarTvelma personalma ukeT aRweros Seqmnili viTareba
sagangebo situaciaSi:
„es xdeba (wyalSemtbori nagebobis dasaxeleba). Aaq (unda mieTiTos
adgilmdebareoba, misamarTi) Seiqmna sagangebo situacia. obieqti
daSorebulia uaxloesi dasaxlebuli punqtidan (manZili).
Cven gavaaqtiureT sagangebo RonisZiebaTa gegma am kaSxalTan mimarTebaSi da
amJamad mdgomareoba Seesabameba sagangebo dones 2.
Cven vanxorcielebT winaswar gansazRvrul moqmedebebs, raTa adeqvaturad
gamovexmauroT situaciis ganviTarebas, romelsac SeeZlo gamoewvia kaSxlis
mtyuneba.
gTxovT, moemzadoT kaSxlis qvemoT mdebare olqebis (teritoriebis – unda
mieTiTos dasaxlebuli punqtebis da quCebis dasaxelebebi) evakuaciisaTvis.
ixelmZRvaneleT sagangebo RonisZiebaTa gegmis saevakuacio ruqis sakuTari
asliT.
Cven SegatyobinebT, rogorc ki situacia ganimuxteba an gauaresdeba. CemTan
dakavSireba SesaZlebelia Semdeg ricxvSi (TariRi). Tu am droisaTvis ver
SeZlebT dakavSirebas, damisaxeleT Semdgi alternatiuli TariRi”.
13
kaSxali, TariRi, administraciuli raioni.
sagangebo done 3: kaSxlis mtyuneba gardauvalia an mas ukve aqvs adgili:
aucilebelia dauyovnebliv dakavSireba samarTaldamcavi organoebis
warmomadgenlebTan da Tu SesaZlebelia kaSxalis mtyuneba, potenciurad
datborvas daqvemdebarebuli teritoria kontrolze unda iqnas ayvanili:
1. darekeT adgilobrivi xelisuflebis centralur organoSi da
darwmundiT, rom warmoTqviT fraza: “es sagangebo situaciaa”. isini
dagisaxeleben sxva saxelisuflebo organoebs da masobrivi
informaciis saSualebebs (romlebsac aseve unda mimarToT) da
daiwyeben evakuacias.
Semdegi Setyobinebis gamoyeneba SesaZlebelia sagangebo situaciis
aRsawerad adgilobrivi samarTaldamcavi organoebis
warmomadgenlisaTvis da marTvis personalisaTvis sagangebo
situaciebSi:
“es – sagangebo situaciaa. me var (daasaxeleT vinaoba), kaSxali
(dasaxeleba, miuTiTeT misi adgimdebareoba) ganicdis avarias. mis
qvemoT mdebare zona unda iqnas evakuirebuli dauyovnebliv.
gaimeoreT, (kaSxlis dasaxeleba) ganicdis avarias: moaxdineT qveda
biefSi ganlagebuli (dasaxlebuli punqtis saxelwodeba) dablobi
nawilis (miuTiTeT quCebis dasaxeleba) evakuacia.
Cven gavaaqtiureT sagangebo RonisZiebaTa gegma am kaSxlis (miuTiTeT
dasaxeleba) mimarT. amJamad mdgomareoba Seesabameba sagangebo dones 3.
ixelmZRvaneleT sagangebo RonisZiebaTa gegmis saevakuacio rukis sakuTari
asliT.
CemTan dakavSireba SesaZlebelia Semdeg ricxvSi (TariRi).”
14
Tu am droisaTvis ver SeZlebT dakavSirebas, damisaxeleT Semdgi
alternatiuli TariRi.
2. ganaxorcieleT yvela aucilebeli qmedeba, raTa uSualod saxifaTo
situaciaSi aRmoCenili adamianebi gamoyvanil iqnan usafrTxo adgilas.
am mizniT unda gaigzavnos samarTaldamcavi organos an evakuirebuli
mosaxleobis warmomadgenlebi (kaSxalze,kaSxlis qveda biefSi,
wyalsacavSi navze).
3. xSiri kontaqti iqonieT samarTaldamcavi organoebisa da saavario
samsaxurebis warmomadgenlebTan, miawodeT maT axali monacemebi
kaSxlis mdgomareobis Sesaxeb. isini getyvian Tqven, Tu rogor
gaumklavdeT sagangebo situacias.
4. Tu komunikaciis yvela saSualeba mwyobridanaa gamosuli: (1)
SeecadeT gaarkvioT ratom, (2) SeecadeT isargebloT sxva radioTi an
telefoniT, romelic muSaobs, (3) aiZuleT sxva piri Seecados
kavSiris damyarebas. Tu am gziT komunikaciis damyareba SeuZlebelia,
maSin unda gadawydes uSualo problemebi SesaZleblobis farglebSi.
amave dros saWiroa periodulad ganxorcieldes kontaqtis aRdgenis
mcdeloba samarTaldamcavi organoebisa da saavario samsaxurebis
warmomadgenlebTan“.
Semdegi Setyobineba, rogorc wesi, SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnas
samarTaldamcavi organoebisa da saavario samsaxurebis
warmomadgenlebis mier gzamkvlevis saxiT, raTa sazogadoebis
warmomadgenlebs ecnobos sagangebo situaciis statusi.
„yuradReba: es – sagangebo situaciaa
15
moismineT yuradRebiT. Tqveni sicocxle SeiZleba damokidebuli
aRmoCndes RonisZiebaTa dauyovnebliv miRebisagan. (kaSxlis
dasaxeleba, misi adgilmdebareoba) ganicdis avarias. gaimeoreT
(kaSxlis dasaxeleba, misi adgilmdebareoba) ganicdis avarias.
Tu Tqven imyofebiT avariis zonaSi an masTan axlos, dauyovnebliv
ganagrZeT moZraoba avariis zonidan rac SeiZleba daSorebuli maRali
adgilebisaken“.
gaimeoreT Setyobineba.
2.1.4. biji 4. gasaTvaliswinebeli qmedebebi
kaSxlis mesakuTre an misi warmomadgeneli (DE) unda iyos
informirebuli kaSxalze momxdari araordinaruli an sagangebo
SemTxvevis Sesaxeb. mesakuTrem an misma warmomadgenelma unda
gansazRvros sagangebo done da miiRos Sesabamisi zomebi. wylis
resursebis marTvis sabWos kaSxlis usafrTxoebis inJiners unda
daukavSirdes teqnikuri konsultaciisaTvis.
sagangebo done 1: nela ganviTarebadi (progresirebadi), arakritikuli,
araordinaruli SemTxveva:
a. mesakuTrem an misma warmomadgenelma (DE) unda daaTvalieros
kaSxali. sul mcire, unda daTvalerdes zeda da qveda ferdebi da
kaSxlis xeobis bortebTan mirTvis adgilebi. aseve unda Catardes
wyalsacavis ares, sanapiro burjebis, qvemo biefSi gamyvani arxis
inspeqtireba maTi mdgomareobis cvlilebis gansazRvris mizniT. Tu
adgili aqvs filtracias, erozias, bzarTwarmoqmnas an SeimCneva
jdenebi – am dakvirvebaTa Sedegebi dauyovnebliv unda ecnobos wylis
resursebis marTvis sabWos kaSxlis usafrTxoebis inJiners _: axali
16
mdgomareobis Sesabamisi donisa da rekomendebuli qmedebebis
gansazRvris mizniT ixelmZRvaneleT “sagangebo donis gansazRvris
saxelmZRvanelo” cxriliT (danarTi 5).
b. awarmoeT yvela kontaqtis Canaweri, romelic damyarda, kontaqtebis
sakontrolo siaSi.
g. awarmoeT yvela informaciis, dakvirvebis, qmedebebis Canaweri
xdomilebaTa registraciis formis mixedviT.
daafiqsireT situacia foto an video kameriT, Tu es SesaZlebelia.
d. mesakuTre an misi warmomadgeneli unda daukavSirdes (ix. diagrama,
danaarTi 6) kaSxlis usafrTxoebis inJiners (DE) an damproeqtebels
da miiRos teqnikuri daxmareba, Seqmnili situaciis gamokvlevisa da
misi gamosworebisaTvis qmedebaTa rekomendaciis mizniT. (SeuZlia
daukavSirdes agreTve energetikis da bunebrivi resursebis
saministros).
sagangebo done 2: swrafad ganviTarebadi (progresirebadi), wyalSemtbori
nagebobis potenciuri mtyunebis Semcveli SemTxveva:
a. kaSxlis mesakuTre an misi warmomadgeneli unda daukavSirdes
kaSxlis usafrTxoebis inJiners (DE), energetikis da bunebrivi
resursebis saministros da adgilobriv ofiss, rom acnobos situacia
da Tu dro saSualebas iZleva sTxovos teqnikur personals
gamoikvlios Seqmnili situacia, misi gamosworebisaTvis RonisZiebaTa
SemuSavebis mizniT (ix. diagrama, danaarTi 7).
b. kaSxlis mesakuTre an misi warmomadgeneli unda daukavSirdes 122-ze,
raTa acnobos sagangebo situaciaTa personals imis Taobaze, rom
17
sagangebo RonisZiebaTa gegma (EAP) moqmedebaSia moyvanili da Tu
mimdinare mdgomareoba gauaresdeba sagangebo situaciam SeiZleba
moiTxovos evakuacia. unda Sesruldes mosamzadebeli samuSaoebi
gzebis gadaketvisa da evakuaciisaTvis.
g. saavario samsaxurebis personalisaTvis informaciis ganaxlebis
uzrunvelyofa, maTTvis daxmarebis gasawevad, raTa droulad SeimuSaon
gadawyvetilebebi Setyobinebebis, gzebis gadaketvisa da evakuaciis
Sesaxeb.
d. Tu dro iZleva saSualebas, mesakuTrem an misma warmomadgenelma unda
daaTvalieros kaSxali. rogorc minimumi, unda daTvalerdes zeda da
qveda ferdebi da kaSxlis xeobis bortebTan mirTvis adgilebi mTel
sigrZeze. aseve unda Catardes wyalsacavis ares, sanapiro burjebis,
qvemo biefSi gamyvani arxis inspeqtireba maTi mdgomareobis cvlilebis
gansazRvris mizniT. Tu adgili aqvs gruntebis rRvevas, momatebulia
filtracia, erozia, bzarTwarmoqmna an SeimCneva jdenebi, am dakvirvebaTa
Sedegebi dauyovnebliv unda ecnobos mesakuTris an energetikis da
bunebrivi resursebis saministros, kaSxlis usafrTxoebis inJiners (DE)
-: axali mdgomareobis Sesabamisi donisa da Casatarebeli RonisZiebebis
SemuSavebis mizniT ixelmZRvaneleT “sagangebo donis gansazRvris
saxelmZRvanelo” cxriliT (danarTi 5).
e. awarmoeT yvela kontaqtis Canaweri, romelic damyarda, kontaqtebis
sakontrolo siaSi.
v. awarmoeT yvela informaciis, dakvirvebis, qmedebebis Canaweri
xdomilebaTa registraciis formis mixedviT.
daafiqsireT situacia foto an video kameriT, Tu es SesaZlebelia.
18
z. Tu dro iZleva saSualebas, unda iqnas gamoyenebuli Semdegi sagangebo
aRdgeniTi qmedebebi:
sagangebo aRdgeniTi qmedebebi
Tu dro iZleva saSualebas, unda iqnas ganxiluli pirobebi sagangebo
doni 2-is Sesabamisi Semdegi sagangebo aRdgeniTi qmedebebisaTvis. am
aRdgeniTi qmedebebis uSualo ganxorcielebas SeuZlia SeaCeros,
Seasustos an Tavidan aicilos kaSxlis mtyuneba. CamoTvlili
arasasurveli an araordinaruli mdgomareobidan ramodenimes SeiZleba
adgili eqnes kaSxalze. amasTan, aRniSnuli moiTxovs aRdgeniTi
RonisZiebebis ganxorcielebas ramodenime meTodiT. kaSxali unda
daeqvemdebaros mWidro instrumentul kontrols, raTa warmatebuli
iyos masze ganxorcielebuli nebismieri aRdgeniTi qmedebebi. drois
arsebobis SemTxvevaSi, nebismieri aRdgeniTi qmedeba unda ganxorcieldes
kaSxlis mesakuTrisa, energetikis da bunebrivi resursebis saministros
da kaSxlis usafrTxoebis inJinerTan (DE) kontaqtSi.
sagangebo done 3: wyalSemtbori nagebobis mtyuneba gardauvalia an
mas ukve aqvs adgili:
a. wyalSemtbori nagebobis mesakuTre dauyovnebliv unda daukavSirdes
122-ze da sxva samsaxurebs, rogorc naCvenebia SetyobinebaTa
dagzavnis diagramaze (danarTi 8).
b. sagangebo situaciaze pasuxismgebelma qalaqis an regionis moxelem
unda mimarTos Zalisxmeva gafrTxilebis realizaciisaTvis, romelic
exeba gzebis gadaketvasa da adamianebis evakuacias kaSxlis qveda
biefis saxifaTo adgilebidan.
19
g. mesakuTres mudmivad unda hqondes uwyveti komunikacia da
uzrunvelyofdes qalaqisa da regionis moxeleebis informirebas
situaciis mimdinareobis Sesaxeb, riTac daexmareba maT drouli
gadawyvetilebebis miRebaSi gafrTxilebisa da evakuaciis sakiTxebze.
d. mesakuTre awarmoebs yvela kontaqtis Canawers, romelic damyarda,
kontaqtebis sakontrolo siaSi. awarmoebs yvela informaciis,
dakvirvebis, qmedebebis Canawers xdomilebaTa registraciis formis
mixedviT. iniSnavs pirobebis cvlilebis dros. afiqsirebs situacias
foto an video kameriT, Tu es SesaZlebelia.
e. adaminebs, romlebic axorcieleben kaSxlis kontrols, unda mieces
rCeva, rom daicvan usafrTxoebis procedurebi. yvela maTgani unda
imyofebodes nebismieri Camovardnili an Camoqceuli konstruqciisa da
ferdebisagan, agreTve rRvevis masalebis potenciuri wyliT modenis
areebidan moSorebiT.
2.1.5. biji 5. dasruleba
yovelTvis, roca EAP-i gaaqtiurdeba da sagangebo done gamocxaddeba,
EAP-s mixedviT yvela moqmedeba da sagangebo situacia dasruldeba, maSin
EAP-s operaciebi saboloo angariSiT damTavrebuli iqneba da agreTve
Semdegi procedurebic agreTve dasruldeba.
movaleobebi dasrulebisaTvis
Qqalaqis an regionis pasuxismgebeli moxele pasuximgebelia EAP
operaciis dasrulebaze da am gadawyvetilebis mesakuTrisaTvis
Setyobinebaze. es TiToeuli adamianis movaleobaa kontaqtebis imave
jgufSi, sadac igi daregistrirebuli iyo xdomilebis Setyobinebis
procesSi, raTa acnobos igive adamianebs, rom procesi dasrulda.
20
me-3 donis Sesabamisi sagangebo SemTxvevis dasrulebisTanave, romelmac
ar gamoiwvia kaSxlis faqtobrivi mtyuneba, mesakuTris inJinerma unda
daaTvalieros kaSxali, raTa gansazRvros hqonda Tu ara adgili raime
dazianebas, romelsac potenciurad SeeZlo gamoewvia adamianTa
msxverpli, maTi sxeulis dazianeba an materialuri zarali.
wylis resursebis marTvis samsaxuris kaSxlis usafrTxobis inJiners
SeuZlia daxmarebis aRmoCena daTvalierebaSi. Tu dadgenilia, rom es
piroba ar uqmnis safrTxes adamianebs da maT sakuTrebas, maSin
mesakuTris inJiners SeuZlia urCios qalaqis an regionis moxeles, rom
daasrulos EAP-s operaciebi, ise rogorc zemoT iyo aRwerili.
mesakuTrem unda uzrunvelyos kaSxlis usafrTxoebis sagangebo
situaciis operatiuli cnoba, raTa daaregistriros sagangebo SemTxveva
da yvela zoma, rac iqna miRebuli. mesakuTre valdebulia angariSi
warudginos energetikis da bunebrivi resursebis saministros.
EAP-s momsaxureba. Mmimoxilva da gadasinjva
EAP-s yovewliuri mimoxilva
mesakuTre ganixilavs da saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi ganaaxlebas EAP-s,
ukidures SemTxvevaSi weliwadSi erTjer mainc. EAP-s yovelwliuri
mimoxilva unda Seicavdes:
1. yvela kontaqtis moTxovna EAP-s sam diagramaze (danarTi 6, 7, 8),
raTa Semowmdes satelefono nomrebi gairkves rCeba Tu ara ZalaSi da
im adamianTa nusxa, rac mocemul debulebaSia miTiTebuli. EAP
eqvemdebareba gadasinjvas Tu romelime kontaqti gamoicvala.
2. mWidro kontaqti adgilobriv samarTaldamcav organoebTan, raTa
Semowmdes satelefono nomrebisa da im adamianTa nusxis sizuste, rac
21
mocemul debulebaSia miTiTebuli. Ggarda amisa, mesakuTre ekiTxeba
icis Tu ara im adamianma visac ukavSirdebian, sad inaxeba EAP da
masSi Tu aris misTvis gasagebi aRwerili movaleobebi.
3. SekiTxva xelmisawvdomi resursebis (adgilobrivi resursebis)
masStabis Sesaxeb, raTa Semowmdes, rom telefonis nomrebi,
misamarTebi da momsaxureba rCeba ZalaSi.
Ggadasinjva
mesakuTre pasuxismgebelia EAP-s dokumentis ganaxlebaze. EAP-s
dokumenti, romelic inaxeba mesakuTresTan:
misi ZiriTadi dokumentia. roca moxdeba gadasinjva, mesakuTre
valdebulia uzrunvelyos aslebis gadaReba da miwodeba EAP-s yvela
danarCeni mflobelisaTvis. dokumentis mflobelni pasuxismgebeli
arian Sesabamisi dokumentebis moZvelebuli aslebis gadaxedvaze yvela
SemTxvevaSi, roca miiReben axal, gadasinjul dokuments. moZvelebuli
furclebi dauyovnebliv Zaladakargulad unda CaiTvalos, raTa
Tavidan iqnas acilebuli gadasinjvasTan dakavSirebuli nebismieri
uwesivroba.
funqciebi da movaleobebi
kaSxlis operatoris warmomadgeneli
sagangebo situaciis SetyobinebisTanave an roca aRniSnuli saxezea,
dauyovnebliv gansazRvravs sagangebo dones (ix. sagangebo situaciis
donis gansazRvris cxrili, danarTi 5);
dauyovnebliv atyobinebs personals im rigiTobiT, romelic Sesabamisi
donis Setyobinebis blok-sqemazea naCvenebi (ix. Setyobinebis blok-
sqemebi danarTi 6, 7, 8);
22
uzrunvelyofs informaciis ganaxlebas situaciis Sesaxeb
samarTaldamcavi organoebis warmomadgenlebisaTvis, maTTvis drouli
da zusti gadawyvetilebis misaRebad gafrTxilebisa da evakuaciis
Taobaze;
uzrunvelyofs xelmZRvanel rols, raTa garantirebulad,
yovelwliurad gadaisinjos da ganaxldes EAP da misi yvela asli
gadaeces EAP-s originalis mflobels.
incidentis xelmZRvaneli
igi aris mTavari koordinatori, romelic pasuxismgebelia yvela
sagangebo RonisZiebisa da qmedebis koordinaciisa
roca done-2-is Sesabamis situacias aqvs adgili: amzadebs personals
marTvisaTvis sagangebo situaciebSi SesaZlebeli evakuaciisaTvis, rac
SeiZleba gaxdes saWiro, ATu me-3 donis Sesabamis situacias aqvs
adgili:
- iRebs gadawyvetilebas gafrTxilebisa da adamianebis evakuaciis
rigiTobis Sesaxeb kaSxlis qveda biefSi ganlagebuli saxifaTo
zonebidan
- atyobinebs adgilobrivi marTvis samsaxurebs sagangebo situaciebSi ,
raTa ganaxorcielon adamianTa evakuacia da gadaketon gzebi
evakuaciis zonaSi.
iRebs gadawyvetilebas sagangebo situaciis dasrulebis Sesaxeb
monawileobs EAP-s yovelwliur mimoxilvasa da ganaxlebaSi
23
marTvis samsaxuri sagangebo situaciebSi
xels uwyobs komunikacias masobrivi informaciis saSualebebTan
roca me-2 donis Sesabamisi situaciaa
- amzadebs personals marTvisaTvis sagangebo situaciebSi SesaZlebeli
evakuaciisaTvis, rac SeiZleba saWiro gaxdes, ATu me-3 donis
Sesabamis situacias aqvs adgili:
- mzadyofnaSi mohyavs Sesabamisi sazogadoeba
roca me-3 donis Sesabamisi situaciaa
- mohyavs mzadyofnaSi sagangebo situaciisaTvis farTo sazogadoeba;
- dauyovnebliv gadaketavs gzebs da awarmoebs evakuaciis zonaSi myofi
adamianebis evakuacias;
monawileobs EAP-s yovelwliur mimoxilvasa da ganaxlebaSi.
kaSxlis operatoris teqnikuri warmomadgenlebi
konsultacias uweven kaSxlis operators sagangebo situaciis donis
gansazRvraSi, Tu dro iZleva amis saSualebas
konsultacias uweven kaSxlis operators aRdgeniTi RonisZiebebis
Catarebis sakiTxebSi, Tu me-2 donis xdomilebas aqvs adgili
kaSxlebis usafrTxoebis saxelmwifo samsaxuri (energetikis da
bunebrivi resursebis saministro)
konsultacias uweven kaSxlis operators sagangebo situaciis donis
gansazRvraSi, Tu dro iZleva amis saSualebas
24
konsultacias uweven kaSxlis operators aRdgeniTi RonisZiebebis
Catarebis sakiTxebSi, Tu me-2 donis xdomilebas aqvs adgili da dro
iZleva amis saSualebas.
III. prevenciuli RonisZiebebi
pirvel rigSi unda SemuSavdes da ganTavsdes obieqtze da regionaluri
sagangebo situaciaTa marTvis uwyebaSi damtkicebuli EAP-is amocana
xudonis kaSxlis SesaZlo ngreviT gamowveuli sagangebo situaciis
mzadyofnis gegmis (danarTi 1), Camoyalibdes moTxovnebi usafrTxoebis
gegmis mimarT (danarTi 2) da gansakuTrebul pirobebSi xudonis
kaSxlisaTvis mzadyofnis dagegmis koncefcia, rogorc kaSxlis detaluri
Seswavlis proeqtis safuZveli (danarTi 3).
moTxovnebi zemoTaRniSnuli gegmis (EAP) mixedviT aucilebelia
ganxorcieldes Semdegi prevenciuli RonisZiebebi im mizniT, rom Tavidan
iqnes acilebuli xudonis kaSxlis ngreva da is Sedegebi, romlebic
kaSxlis dangreviT iqneba ganpirobebuli.
RonisZiebaTa CamonaTvali, romlebic dakavSirebulia xudonis kaSxlis
ngrevis safrTxesTan
1. SemuSavdes kompiuteruli sistema, ris saSualebiT SesaZlebeli iqneba
im saketebis marTva, romlebic gankuTvnilia ganlagebuli wyalsatari
nagebobisaTvis.
2. gaumjobesebul iqnas sakomunikacio sistema.
3. SemuSavdes gegma, romliTac ganxorcieldeba mosaxleobis da
Sesabamisi pasuxismgebeli pirebis gafrTxileba, agreTve sirenebisa da
quCis xmis gamaZliereblebis (ruporebis) CarTva.
25
4. SemuSavebuli iqnas RonisZiebebi, romlebic dakavSirebuli iqneba
samaSvelo da sareabilitacio moqmedebebTan Ramis saaTebSi an mZime
klimatur pirobebSi.
5. dadgenil iqnes sagzao marSrutebi mosaxleobis evakuaciis, samaSvelo
RonisZiebebis Catarebisa da samedicino saSualebebiT uzrunvelyofis
mizniT.
6. SemuSavebul iqnes pasuxismgebeli pirebisaTvis sagangebo pirobebSi
moqmedebis gegma kaSxlis ngrevis SeemTxvevaSi mZime Sedegebis Tavidan
acilebis mizniT.
7. zemoTaRniSnuli informaciis safuZvelze (romelic warmodgenilia
EAP–Si) pasuxismgebelma pirma (MoE) unda moamzados Semdegi:
8. dadgenil iqnes saWiro satransporto saSualebebi mosaxleobis
evakuaciis da samaSvelo samuSaoTa ganxorcielebis mizniT.
9. gansazRvrul iqnas gzebi, magistralebi da adgilebi evakuaciis
ganxorcielebis, agreTve swrafi daxmarebis saSualebebis da
samaSvelo moqmedebaTa Casatareblad gankuTvnili punqtebis
ganTavsebis mizniT.
10. SesaZlebeli safrTxis sawinaaRmdegod gankuTvnili nagebobebi
winaswar ganlagebuli unda iqnes datborvis zonis gareT, miwisqveSa
Zalovani kvanZebisa da momaragebis punqtebis (sawyobebis) axlos.
26
IV. prevenciuli RonisZiebebis efeqturoba
EPP gegmis mixedviT, xudonis kaSxlis ngrevis saSiSroebis SemTxvevaSi,
prevenciuli RonisZiebebis ganxorcielebis Sedegad navarauudevia Semdegi
Sedegebis miReba:
sagangebo pirobebSi xudonis kaSxlis ngrevis saSiSroebis winaswar
gamovlena da ngrevis riskis Sefaseba, efeqturi instrumentaluri
monitoringis sistemis dayenebiT.
sagangebo pirobebSi prevenciuli zomebis SemuSaveba monitoringis
monacemebis analizis safuZvelze.
mosaxleobis dacvisa da usafrTxoebis xarisxis gazrda im raionSi,
romelic datborvis zemoqmedebis zonaSi iqneba moqceuli.
kaSxlis ngreviT gamowveuli nakadis zemoqmedebis Sedegebisa da
ekonomikuri danakargebis Semcireba stiqiuri ubedurebis SemTxvevaSi.
samaSvelo-sareabilitacio samuSaoTa Sesrulebis drois
xangrZlivobis Semcireba stiqiuri ubedurebis SemTxvevaSi.
maSveli Zalebis (razmebis) Seqmna, romlebic dakompleqtebuli iqneba
adgilobrivi mosaxleobisagan da meqanizmebis mozidva kerZo
seqtoridan.
sareabilitacio samuSaoTa daCqareba, romlebic dakavSirebulia
sasoflo-sameurneo produqciis warmoebasTan da irigaciasTan.
sareabilitacio samuSaoTa efeqturi ganxorcieleba da amoqmedeba im
momsaxurebis xazebisa, romlebic dakavSirebulia wylisa da energiis
momaragebasTan, sakomunikacio saSualebebTan, gzebTan.
27
V. Setyobinebebis sistemis organizacia
xudonis kaSxlis SesaZlo ngrevis saSiSroebis SemTxvevaSi,
pasuxismgebeli piri (DE), romelic kaSxals emsaxureba, atyobinebs
sagangebo situaciaTa marTvis departaments (MoE), raionuli ganyofilebis
pasuxismgebel pirs da Sesabamis pirs kaSxlis mesakuTreTa centrSi, xolo
isini, Tavis mxriv, dauyovnebliv atyobineben mTavrobis pasuxismgebel pirs.
am ukanasknelis mier, Sesabamisi TanmimdevrobiT xdeba Setyobineba
saerTo marTvaSi myofi saagentoebisaTvis kaSxlis ngreviT gamowveuli
riskis, agreTve datborvis potenciur zonaSi sirenebisa da quCis xmis
gamaZliereblebis (reproduqtorebis) CarTvis Sesaxeb.
kaSxlis dangrevis SemTxvevaSi, sirenebis CarTva warmoebs avtomatur
reJimSi kaSxalTan ganlagebuli sakontrolo punqtidan, rac uzrunvelyofs
gamafrTxilebeli signalis mowodebas 10 km radiusis farglebSi.
amave dros gamafrTxilebeli signalebi igzavneba situaciaTa marTvis
departamentis raionul ganyofilebaSi da kaSxlis mesakuTreTa centrSi.
Tavis mxriv, isini ugzavnian gamafrTxilebel signalebs saxelmwifo
mTavrobis pasuxismgebel pirs (diagrama 1, danarTi 9), saxelmwifo
ministrs da raionul mTavrobas, ris Sedegad xdeba:
kaSxlis ngrevis potenciuri riskis an kaSxlis ngrevis Sedegad
warmoqmnili realuri pirobebisa da datbirvis xarisxis Sefaseba.
Semowmeba im mowyobiloba-aRWurvilobisa, romelic gankuTvnilia
sagangebo pirobebiT gamowveuli Sedegebis Tavidan acilebis mizniT.
specialuri jgufebis Seqmna, romelTa daniSnuleba iqneba stiqiuri
ubedurebis Sedegebis detaluri Seswavla.
28
saswrafo RonisZiebebis ganxorcieleba, rogorc datborvis farglebis
zrdis Tavidan acilebis, aseve danakargebis Semcirebis mizniT.
saswrafo samedicino daxmarebis gaweva mosaxleobisaTvis.
saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi mosaxleobis evakuacia.
sareabilitacio samuSaoebis ganxorcieleba momsaxureobis
saSualebebis (servis-xazebis) mimarT, rogoricaa, eleqtro gadamcemi
xazebi, wylisa da gazis milsadenebi, gzebi.
dazaralebulTaTvis samedicino daxmarebis organizacia.
xudonis kaSxlis SesaZlo ngrevis saSiSroebis SemTxvevaSi Setyobineba
ganxorcieldeba sadispetCero punqtidan Sedegi mimdevrobiT:
a) xmis mayviris “ ”-s CarTviT (romlis moqmedebis radiusi 10 km);
b) radiosadgurebis meSveobiT;
g) mobiluri telefonebiT
xudonis kaSxlis sagangebo situaciaSi Setyobinebis
sistemis mowyobiloba
cxrili 1.
# dasaxeleba ganz.
erT.
r-ba dislokaciis adgili
1 2 3 4 5
1.
radio retranslatori
tipi CM 660-130-173 mg
herci
kompl. 1
2.
xelis gadasatani
radiosadguri cali 15
2 cali – wyalsacavis
mepatronis centrSi;
10 cali walenjixis
rai-onis gamgeblobaSi;
15 cali zugdidis
raionis gamgeblobaSi;
29
3.
xelis magafonebi cali 30
10 cali walenjixis
raionis, 20 cali
zugdidis r-nis
dasaxlebel punqtebSi
4. akumulatorebi 120 volti cali 2 sadispetCero SenobaSi
5. xmis mayvari “ ”–s
tipis
cali 1 kaSxalze sadispetCero
Senobis saxuravze
6. mobiluri telefonebi cali 2 sadispetCero SenobaSi
VI. sakomunikacio sistema
radio sadguris (Motorola CM 660408-470, MHg 16 CH 25-40W) mowyoba
aucileblobas warmoadgens kaSxlis normaluri saeqspluatacio pirobebisa
da sakomunikacio saSualebaTa saimedo funqcionirebis uzrunvelyofis
mizniT.
komunikacia ganxorcieldeba sxvadasxva pirs Soris, sxvadasxva doneze
(pasuxismgebeli piri kaSxalTan, raionul MoE, saxelmwifo MoE –Si da
mTavrobaSi) mimReb-gadamcem radioaparaturas saSualebiT, agreTve
raionuli da sadepartamento satelefono xazebiT. diagrama 2-ze (danarTi
10) naCvenebia sakomunikacio kavSirebi da gzavnilebis (mesijebis)
Tanamimdevroba.
cxrili 2.
kaSxlis ngrevis SemTxvevaSi RonisZiebaTa
ganxorcielebis Tanmimdevroba
informaciuli
monacemebi
dro Semsrulebeli RonisZiebebi
30
1 2 3 4 5
1. kaSxlis ngreva 0.00
2. sirenebis CarTva,
romelsac 10 km
radiusis moqmedebis
unari gaaCniaT
3 wT pasuxismgebeli
piri kaSxlaTan
aRniSnul zonaSi
avtomaturad
CarTuli iqneba
sirenebi.
pasuxismgebeli piri
Tvalyurs adevnebs
moqmedebis process
da aucileblobis
SemTxvevaSi adidebs
maT moqmedebis
efeqts.
3. gafrTxileba da
sagangebo situaciis
Setyobineba
a) pasuxismgebe3l pirs
sagan-gebo situaciaTa
marTvis depar-tamentis
(MoE) raionul ganyo-
filebaSi
4 wT pasuxismgebeli
piri kaSxalTan
informacia
moewodeba raionul
qvedanayofebs
b) pasuxismgebel pirs
kaSxlis mesakuTreTa
centrSi PA
5 wT pasuxismgebeli
piri kaSxalTan
g) pasuxismgebel pirs
sagangebo situaciaTa
marTvis departa-mentSi
(MoE), sarezervo
marTvis ganyofilebebi.
5 wT
6 wT
pasuxismgebeli
piri raionul
(MoE) sagangebo
situaciaTa
marTvis
departamentSi,
pasuxismgebeli
piri kaSxlis
mesakuT. centrSi
gaerTianebuli
Sexvedra
saorganizacio
sakiTxebze
d) datborvis zonaSi
myofi mosaxleobis
Setyobineba-informireba
quCis xmis gamaZli-
6 wT pasuxismgebel
piri sagangebo
situaciaTa
marTvis
reproduqtorebi
gamoiyeneba
dasaxlebul
punqtebSi
31
erebis
(reproduqtorebis) meS-
veobiT
departamentSi
(MoE) gafrTxilebisa da
informaciiT
uzrunvelyofis miz-
niT
e) raionuli centris
da dasaxlebebis
Setyobineba
6 wT pasuxismgebel
piri sagangebo
situaciaTa
marTvis
departamentSi
(MoE) raionul
ganyofilebaSi
v) mmarTvelisa da
raionuli samTavrobo
uwyebebis Setyobi-neba
7 wT pasuxismgebel
piri sagangebo
situaciaTa
marTvis
departamentSi
(MoE) ganyofilebaSi
4. satelefono kavSiri
mTavrobis, sagangebo
situaciaTa marTvis
departamentis
Tavmjdomarisa (MoE) da teritoriuli
marTvis pasuxismgebel
pirTan
10 wT pasuxismgebel
piri MOE
sagangebo
situaciaTa
marTvis
departamentSi
sarezervo
marTvis
ganyofilebaSi
satelefono kavSiri
xdeba mas Semdeg,
rac moxdeba
situaciis,
winaswari Sefaseba
premier-ministrTan
Sesabamisi angariSis
warsadgenad
5. Sexvedra raionuli
samTavrobo uwyebis
xelmZRvanelobasTan
1 sT gubernatori an
gamgebeli
gadaudebeli
RonisZiebebis
SemuSaveba da
pasuxismgebe-li
pirebis daniSvna
6. situaciis winaswari
Sefaseba raionuli
saministros MOE
marTvis gany. mier
40wT-
1.5sT
rekognoscirebis
jgufi
kaSxlis da
nagebobis realuri
mdgomareobis
rekognoscireba
7. datborvis zonis
saerTo sahaero
45wT sahaero
rekognoscire-bis
respublikuri
kooperaciu-li
32
rekognoscireba
(respublikis) ZalebiT
jgufi
Sveulmfrenze
gegmis mixedviT,
jgufi atarebs
frenebs rekognos-
cirebis mizniT
aeroporti-dan
8. stiqiuri ubedurebis
zonaSi respublikuri
Zalebis Seyvana
2 sT samoqalaqo
dacvis
SenaerTebis
polki, saxalxo
samaSvelo
organizaciebi
Zalebis ganawileba
da msxverplTa
gadarCenis umaRlesi
donis priori-
tetuli samuSaos
Sesru-leba
9. mas Semdeg rac
situacia ufro gasagebi
xdeba, raionul Zalebsa
da samsaxurebs eZlevaT
konkretuli amocanebi
2 sT gamgebeli
sagangebo
situaciaTa
departamentis
Tavmjdomare
sagangebo
situaciaTa marTvis
departamentis Tavm-
jdomare SeimuSavebs
winaswar
gadawyvetilebaTa
gegmas
10. gamgeobis moTxovnis
mixedviT damatebiT
moizideba Zalebi
mezobel raionebidan da
Tavdacvis saministros
SenaerTebidan
2.5sT gamgebeli raionuli
saagentoebi gam-
gebels awvdian
Sesabamis monacemebs
11. angariSi premier-
ministrs saerTo
mdgomareobis Sesaxeb
2-3sT gamgebeli mTavrobisadmi an
raionuli
samTavrobo
uwyebisadmi
gankuTvnil
angariSSi aRiniSneba
saWiro saSuale-
bebisa da Zalebis
raode-noba
12. masmediis uzrunvelyofa
informaciiT
situac.
mixedv.
gamgebeli mokle informaciis
mowo-deba
mdgomareobis
Sesaxeb
33
13. Sexvedra raionul
samTavrobo ofisSi
3 sT gamgebeli saagentoebs
ganemartebaT
amocanebi, xdeba
konkretuli
miznebis dasaxva,
gani-sazRvreba
informaciis gacemis
perioduloba
VII. datborvis zonaSi Sesvlis organizacia
Sps “hidrodiagnostika”-s mier Catarebuli kvlevis: “xudonis
kaSxlis garRveviT gamowveuli talRis maTematikuri modelireba”
(xelSekruleba N# 2/11, 17.10.2011w., proeqtis xelmZRvaneli prof.
T.gvelesiani) erTerTi amocana iyo: kaSxlis mTliani garRveviT gamowveuli
talRis qveda biefSi gavrcelebis siCqareebisa da SesaZlo datborvis
zonebisa da Sesabamisi siRrmeebis gaangariSeba (igulisxmeba maqsimaluri
talRa, romelic Seesabameba normalur Setborvis dones - nSd). naSromis
Sedegebidan Cans, rom SesaZlo datborvis saerTo teritoria Seadgens
daaxloebiT 540km2, maT Soris 90% ganlagebulia dablobSi, 25 km-ian
zolSi zRvidan. datborili iqneba daaxloebiT 42km2 sasoflo-sameurneo
daniSnulebis miwebis farTi. garRvevis talRis maxasiaTeblebidan
gamomdinare didi albaTobiT daingreva ori gadasasvleli xidi md.engurze
sifel WalesTan da ruxTan; daitboreba maganis xidi d.jvarTan, daingreva
an adgilidan daiZreba wyalgamtari betonis damba (e.w. “perebroska”)
sofel liasTan. daitboreba soflebi da dasaxlebebi: focxo-eweri, Wale,
jvari, lia, paxulani, gvaSigverdi, Tqaia, zeni, Wkonxumla, ocarcice –
enguris xidamde da qveviT – ukve Semcirebuli zaraliT da Setborvis
doniT zugdidis da galis raionebis qveda soflebi: tagiloni, Samgona,
34
sida da sxva. talRis gadadinebis zona Sav zRvasTan vceldeba anakliidan
primorskamde. mosaxleobis raodenoba datborvis zonaSi SeiZleba Sefasdes
– 50-100 aTasamde. msxvili samrewvelo obieqti datborvis zonaSi ar aris,
daingreva mxolod mcire simZlavris betonis da asfaltis qarxana
d.jvarSi. es monacemebi unda iyos gamoyenebuli evakuaciis gegmis
SemuSavebisas.
xudonis kaSxlis SesaZlo ngrevis, an misi mosalodneli ngrevis
safrTxis SemTxvevaSi, specializirebuli satransporto saSualebebis
(samaSvelo, sainJinro, samedicino da sxva daniSnulebis) Sesvla datborvis
zonaSi unda warmoebdes im arsebuli adgilobrivi daniSnulebis
satransporto gzebis saSualebiT, romlebsac ar emuqrebaT datborvis
safrTxe.
Tu misasvleli gzebi datborilia, sagangebo situaciebSi gamoiyeneba
droebiTi an velmindvrebze gadasasvlelebi, romlebic mdebareoben
datborvis zonis gareT.
misasvleli gzebis SerCevisas gaiTvaliswineba satransporto
saSualebaTa da xalxis moZraobis intensivoba, aseve am saSualebaTa da
aRWurvilobis saxe.
datborvis zonaSi upirveles yovlisa unda Sevidnen samaSvelo da
saevakuacio daniSnulebis jgufebi, xolo Semdeg, sainJinro teqnikis
saSualebebi.
imisaTvis, rom ganxorcieldes satransporto saSualebebis da xalxis
(momsaxure personalis) Seuferxebeli Sesvla da saTanado mowyobilobis
Setana datborvis zonaSi, winaswar unda iqnes Sefasebuli datborvis
zonis maqsimaluri farTobi, SesaZlebeli dabrkolebebi, saswrafo
35
daxmarebisa da sareabilitacio RonisZiebebi, agreTve saevakuacio
miznisTvis gamoyofili adgilebi da maTTan misasvleli gzebi.
misasvleli gzebi stiqiuri ubedurebis areSi, winaswar unda iyos
SeTanxmebuli sagzao policiis warmomadgenelTan, romlebic
uzrunvelyofen satransporto moZraobebs daubrkolebriv.
VIII. organizaciuli RonisZiebebi Ramis saaTebSi
specializirebul uwyebebs, winaswar miewodebaT informacia ubedurebis
zonaSi datborvis sazRvrebis Sesaxeb, am zonis saTanado ganaTebis
saSualebiT uzrunvelyofis mizniT, rom Seiqmnas normaluri pirobebi
ubedurebis zonaSi samaSvelo da sareabilitacio samuSaoebis Casatareblad.
saTanado kompensaciis gacemiT, gaformebuli unda iqnes xelSekrulebebi
kerZo pirebTan, raTa maT sakuTrebaSi myofi energetikuli danadgarebi
saTanadod iqnes gamoyenebuli (danarTi 4).
samaSvelo Zalebi saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi, iyeneben gadasatan
(portatiul) ganaTebis saSualebebs.
Senobebis ganaTeba, romlebic mdebareoben potenciuri datborvis
zonaSi unda gadawydes individualurad, aRniSnuli principebis dacviT.
IX. samuSaoTa organizacia araxelsayrel klimatur pirobebSi
mZime klimaturi pirobebi ganpirobebulia didi TovlianobiT,
intensiuri wvimebiT, qariSxliT, miwis zedapiris yinuliT dafarviT da
sxva.
zemoTaRniSnul pirobebSi ufro garTulebulia samaSvelo-
sareabilitacio da saevakuacio samuSaoebis warmoeba sagangebo situaciis
36
dros, vinaidan, am SemTxvevaSi, SeiZleba damatebiT iqnes dazianebuli
servis-xazebi, Seferxdes saTanadod aRWurvili satransporto saSualebebis
gadaadgileba, mwyobridan gamovides sainformacio da sakomunikacio xazebi.
specializirebuli Zalebis araxelsayrel klimatur pirobebSi
muSaobis mizniT, unda Catardes Semdegi saxis RonisZiebebi:
sistematuri treningi sagangebo situaciaTa marTvis departamentis
(MoE) StatisaTvis, aRniSnuli pirobebis gaTvaliswinebiT.
perioduli Sexvedrebi raionul sammarTveloebTan da sarezervo
ZalebTan (rezervistebTan) sxvadasxva sakiTxis ganxilvisa da
prevenciuli zomebis SemuSavebis mizniT.
azrTa gacvla (diskusiebi) sicocxlis gadarCenisaTvis gankuTvnili
zomebisa da mosaxleobis sakvebiT uzrunvelyofis Taobaze.
ganmartebiTi muSaoba mosaxleobasTan, sagangebo situaciis dros
panikis Tavidan acilebis mizniT.
X. sagangebo situaciebSi mosaxleobis uzrunvelyofa dacvis saSualebiT
EgegmiT gaTvaliswinebulia saqarTvelos saxelmwifo sabiujeto
Tanxebi materialuri, teqnikuri da finansuri saxis daxmarebis
uzrunvelyofis mizniT, agreTve prevenciuli da damcavi RonisZiebebis
Casatareblad. sagangebo pirobebiT gamowveuli uaryofiTi Sedegebis Tavidan
acilebis RonisZiebebis dafinansebas anxorcieleben organizaciebi,
romlebic ganlagebuli arian ubedurebis zonaSi, agreTve raionuli
aRmasrulebeli uwyebebi, kerZo biznesmenebi da sxva.
raionuli samedicino centrebi unda iqnes SerCeuli winaswar. aseve
winaswar unda iqnes SemuSavebuli sagangebo situaciebSi samoqmedo gegma,
37
raTa dazaralebulebi uzrunvelyofil iqnan saTanado samedicino
daxmarebiT.
XI. kooperaciis organizacia
sagangebo situaciaSi, kaSxlis SesaZlo dangrevis Sesaxeb Setyobinebis
miRebis Semdeg, rCeba drois Zalian mcire periodi gansaxilveli zonis
datborvamde. im mizniT, rom ganxorcieldes mosaxleobis evakuacia,
gamoirTos saerTo energo-momarageba, momzaddes specialuri nagebobebi,
satransporto saSualebebi, aRWurviloba da Catardes sxva saxis
RonisZiebebi.
qveynis specializirebuli Zalebi (Sinagan saqmeTa da Tavdacvis
saministro) kooperirebas awarmoeben mezobel raionul ZalebTan,
ubedurebis zonaSi mosaxleobis dacvis mizniT efeqturi RonisZiebebis
uzrunvelsayofad.
diagrama 3-ze (danarTi 11) aRniSnulia kooperirebis sakiTxebTan
dakavSirebuli ZiriTadi maxasiaTeblebi.
38
cxrili 3. kooperaciis Tanmimdevroba kaSxlis ngrevis safrTxis SemTxvevaSi
RonisZiebebi
Sesrulebis dro
Semsrulebeli
katastrofuli datborvis safrTxis SemTxvevaSi
sagangebo situaciaTa marTvis departamentis
(MoE
)
raionuli
ganyofilebis
pasuxismgebeli piris gafrTxileba
5 wT
pasuxismgebeli piri kaSxalTan
samoqalaqo Tavdacvis samsaxuris ufrosebis
gafrTxileba
6 wT
yvela donis samoqalaqo Tavdacvis
samsaxuris ufrosi
samTavrobo samoqalaqo Tavdacvis samsaxuris
gafrTxileba. 24 sT-iani morigeobis daweseba
1 sT
pasuxismgebeli
piri
sagangebo
situaciaTa marTvis departamentSi
(MoE
)
situaciis Sefaseba
gadaudeblad
rekognoscirebis jgufi da kaSxlis
menejmenti
kaSxlisa da masTan dakavSirebuli nagebobebis
mdgomareobis
teqnikuri
Semowmeba
da
katastrofis sawinaaRmdego zomebi
20 wT
rekognoscirebis
jgufi
da
sainJinro samsaxuri
samoqalaqo
Tavdacvis
formaciebis
mzadyofnaSi moyvana
1 sT 30 wT
samoqalaqo
Tavdacvis
samsaxuris
ufrosi
mosaxleobis
gafrTxileba
samoqalaqo
Tavdacvis samsaxuris ufrosis instruqciis
Sesabamisad
saWiroebis
SemTxvevaSi
pasuxismgebeli
piri
sagangebo
situaciaTa marTvis departamentSi
(MoE
)
mosaxleobis
evakuacia
da
sicocxlis
gadarCenis RonisZiebebi
saWiroebis
SemTxvevaSi
samoqalaqo
Tavdacvis
saevakuacio
komiteti
39
XII. menejmentis organizacia
EAP gegmis mixedviT, im SemTxvevaSi, rodesac xdeba kaSxlis ngreva an
iqmneba kaSxlis ngrevis safrTxe, mosaxleobis dacvis mizniT, xorcieldeba
koordinacia raionis mTavrobasa da raionul sagangebo situaciaTa marTvis
departamentis ganyofilebas Soris; saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi Sesabamisi
sakiTxebis gadawyvetaSi Cabmuli unda iqnes saxelmwifo sagangebo
situaciaTa marTvis departamentis Tavmjdomare (MoE).
didmasStabiani ubedurebis SemTxvevaSi, mTavrobis mier iqmneba
nacionaluri komisia, romlis SemadgenlobaSi Sevlen saministroebis
warmomadgenlebi, agreTve raionuli organizaciebis xelmZRvanelebi.
XIII. sagangebo situaciebSi samoqmedo gegmis srulyofa
sagangebo situaciebSi samoqmedo gegmis EAP-is srulyofa
xorcieldeba gegmis mixedviT, xudonis kaSxlis ngrevis an misi safrTxis
SemTxvevaSi materialuri da teqnikuri usafrTxoebis sakiTxebis ganxilva
da srulyofa warmoebs yovelwliurad (ianvris pirvel ricxvebSi).
praqtikuli varjiSebi (treningebi) xorcieldeba sam weliwadSi erTxel,
romlebSic monawileobas iReben raionuli xelisuflebisa da mezobeli
(erTi an ori) raionis warmomadgenlebi.
am treningebis dros datborili zonis mosaxleobas miewodeba
gafrTxileba da informacia, Sesabamisad sirenebisa da quCis xmis
gamaZliereblebis (reproduqtorebis) meSveobiT.
40
XIV. mosaxleobis evakuaciis winapirobebi
im SemTxvevaSi, rodesac SesaZlebeli xdeba xudonis kaSxlis ngreva an
arsebobs amis safrTxe, raionuli mTavroba, qveynis premier ministrTan
SeTanxmebiT, iRebs gadawyvetilebas mosaxleobis evakuaciis Sesaxeb.
saevakuacio adgilebis (punqtebis) dadgena xdeba raionis mTavrobis
mier mezobel raionul mTavrobasTan da sagangebo situaciaTa marTvis
departamentis raionul ganyofilebasTan SeTanxmebis safuZvelze.
saorganizacio samuSaoebi, evakuaciisTvis gankuTvnili adgilebisa da
gzebis gansazRvrasTan dakavSirebiT, warmoebs saxelmwifo sagangebo
situaciaTa marTvis departamentis (MoE) mier, raionul saagentoebTan
erTad.
satransporto saSualebebiT uzrunvelyofa warmoebs, raionuli da
respublikuri satransporto saagentoebis mier sagangebo situaciaTa
marTvis departamentTan (MoE) koordinaciis safuZvelze dadgenili
saproceduro wesebis Sesabamisad.
xudonis kaSxlis ngrevis SemTxvevaSi, an Tu arsebobs ngrevis safrTxe,
mosaxleobis evakuaciis winapirobaTa detaluri gegmebi warmodgenili
iqneba kaSxlis usafrTxoebis gegmaSi.
41
XV. daskvnebi da rekomendaciebi
1. dasmuli amocanis mimarTebiT usafrTxoebis strategiis erT-erTi
umniSvnelovanesi elementia sagangebo situaciebisaTvis mzadyofnis
gegma (EPP) an sagangebo RonisZiebaTa gegma (EAP), romlebiT unda
damuSavebul iqnes yoveli obieqtisaTvis misi adgilmdebareobisa da
SesaZlo avariis scenaris mixedviT, saerTaSoriso standartebisa da
gamocdilebis gaTvaliswinebiT.
2. naSromSi damuSavebulia xudonis kaSxlis SesaZlo ngrevis Sedegad
gamowveuli sagangebo situaciis samoqmedo gegmis mosamzadebeli
masalebi, romelic moicaven am gegmis yvela sabaziso aspeqts, saWiro
proeqtis realizaciis am etapze.
3. xudonis kaSxlis mSeneblomis damTavrebis Semdeg naSromSi moyvanili
masalebis safuZvelze SemuSavdeba obieqtis sagangebo situaciis
samoqmedo gegmis saboloo varianti, romelic iqneba SeTanxmebuli
yvela moqmed organizaciasTan da saTanadod damtkicebuli, masSi
gaiTvaliswinebuli iqneba im periodisaTvis arsebuli saorganizacio
struqtura, kaSxlis eqspluataciis realuri pirobebi da da misi
teqnikuri mdgomareobis kriteriumebi, agreTve regionaluri
infrastruqturis, mrewvelobis, sasoflo-sameurneo miwebis,
janmrTelobis dacvis obieqtebis da mosaxleobis ganTavsebis
realuri mdgomareoba.
42
danarTi
43
danarTi # 1
amtkicebs sagangebo
situaciaTa marTvis uwyebis
xelmZRvaneli
sagangebo situaciebSi moqmedebis gegmis amocana
1. Sesavali
2. ZiriTadi monacemebi xudonis kaSxlis Sesaxeb
3. prevenciuli RonisZiebebi
4. prevenciuli RonisZiebebis efeqturoba
5. Setyobinebis sistemis organizacia
6. sakomunikacio sistema
7. datborvis zonaSi Sesvlis organizacia
8. organizaciuli RonisZiebebi Ramis saaTebSi
9. samuSaoTa organizacia araxelsayreli klimatur pirobebSi
10. sagangebo situaciebSi mosaxleobis uzrunvelyofa dacvis saSualebebiT
11. kooperaciis organizacia
12. menejmentis organizacia
13. sagangebo situaciebSi mzadyofnis gegmis srulyofa
14. mosaxleobis evakuaciis winapirobebi
44
danarTi # 2
moTxovnebi xudonis kaSxlis usafrTxoebis gegmis mimarT
gansakuTrebul pirobebSi mzadyofnis gegma:
gegma gansazRvravs pasuxismgebel SemsrulebelTa rols, rodesac
mosalodnelia kaSxlis dangreva an wyalsacavidan qveda biefSi wylis
gadaRvra misi eqspluataciis dros, rac safrTxes uqmnis adamianis
sicocxles, qonebas an ekonomikur stabilurobas da ganpirobebulia
mdinaris nakadis donis mkveTr matebasTan.
gegma Seicavs: aRweras im pasuxismgeblobisa, romelic gansakuTrebul
pirobebSi kaSxlis eqspluataciis an sakomunikacio saSualebebis sakiTxebis
mimarT gadawyvetilebebis miRebas Seexeba; rukebs, romelzedac naCvenebia
datborvis doneebi, romlebic sxvadasxva sagangebo situacias Seesabameba;
datborvis Setyobinebis sistemebis maxasiaTeblebs; datborvis zonidan
evakuaciasTan dakavSirebul RonisZiebebs, mzadyofna/mobilizaciis
gansakuTrebuli pirobebSi moqmed Zalebsa (maSveli jgufebi, saswrafo
daxmareba da a.S.) da aRWurvilobas.
45
danarTi # 3
SeTanxmdes gansakuTrebul
pirobebSi menejmentis
uwyebis ufrosTan
gansakuTrebul pirobebSi mzadyofnis dagegmvis koncefcia xudonis
kaSxlisaTvis. SemuSavebulia Sps „trans eleqtrika jorjia“-s SekveTis
safuZvelze.
1. mizani
xudonis kaSxlis dangrevis SemTxvevaSi sagangebo pirobebSi mzadyofnis
dagegmvis (EAP) koncefciis mizania im riskis Sefaseba, romelic
datborvis zonas Seexeba da im jgufebis funqciebis gansazRvra, romlebic
moqmedeben amm zonaSi, agreTve komunikaciis, Setyobinebis, mzadyofnisa da
gadarCenis Zalebis mobilizaciis saorganizacio amocanebis gadawyveta.
2. sawyisi monacemebi
aRniSnuli gegmis (EAP) damuSavebisas im SemTxvevisaTvis, rodesac
xdeba kaSxlis dangreva an iqneba amis safrTxe, saWiro sawyisi monacemebi
unda Seicavdnen Semdeg informacias:
datborvis saangariSo maxasiaTeblebi wyalsacavSi wylis sxvadasxva
donis SemTxvevaSi, saxeldobr datborvis zonis sidides datborvis
dros, nakadis parametrebs, kaSxlis simaRles da datborvis siRrmes
kalapotis sxvadasxva kveTSi;
kaSxlis parametrebs da samonitoringo aRWurvilobis Sesaxeb
monacemebs;
reliefis pirobebs da hidrologiur parametrebs;
46
kaSxlis dasaxelebas, romlisTvisac xorcieldeba aRniSnuli gegma
(EAP).
3. prevenciuli RonisZiebebi
prevenciuli RonisZiebebi aRniSnuli gegmis (EAP) mixedviT
ganpirobebulia im kaSxlebisaTvis, romlebisTvisac sagangebo situaciebi
iwveven adamianTa msxverpls, isini agreTve iTvaliswineben ekonomikuri
zaralis Semcirebasa da nagebobis normaluri eqspluataciis pirobebis
uzrunvelyofas.
prevenciuli RonisZiebebis SemuSavebis mizniT aucilebelia Seswavlili
da gaanalizebuli iqnes statistikuri da teqnikuri monacemebi imisTvis,
rom ganisazRvros mosaxleobis ricxvi datborvis zonaSi, samrewvelo
obieqtebis arseboba, sakomunikacio da servis xazebi, sasoflo-sameurneo
miwis farTobebi, agreTve winaswar Sefasebuli iqnes SesaZlo ekonomikuri
zarali.
prevenciuli zomebis SemuSaveba xorcieldeba im winaswar miRebuli
monacemebis safuZvelze, romlebic Seexeba, rogorc wyalsacavis sxvadasxva
donisas datborvis zonis maxasiaTeblebs, agreTve Sesabamisi raionis
socialur ganviTarebis xarisxs.
3.1. adrindeli Setyobinebis sistemis (EWS) organizacia kaSxlis ngrevis an am safrTxis arsebobis SemTxvevaSi, gafrTxilebis
organizaciis mizniT, aucilebelia hidrokvanZTan mowyobil iqnes marTvis
pulti teqnikuri monitoringis mowyobilobiT, romlis saSualebiTac xdeba
pasuxismgebeli personalis, raionuli da respublikuri organizaciebis
Setyobineba zemoT moyvanili sqemis mixedviT.
47
3.2. sakomunikacio (kavSirgabmulobis) sistema
kaSxlis dangrevis an am safrTxis arsebobisas, komunikaciis
uzrunvelyofa sagangebo situaciis zonasa da pasuxismgebel raionul da
respublikur organizaciebs, agreTve samaSvelo samsaxurebs Soris
xorcieldeba zemoTaRniSnuli gegmis Tanaxmad Tanamedrove radio-
satelefono sakomunikacio saSualebebis gamoyenebiT.
3.3. datborvis zonaSi Sesvlis organizacia
sagangebo situaciis zonaSi samaSvelo Zalebis Sesvlis organizaciis
mizniT, winaswar unda iqnes Seswavlili arsebuli SemovliTi gzebis
mdgomareoba, maTi gamtarunarianoba, ris Semdeg SerCeuli iqneba saboloo
marSrutebi.
winaswar aRiricxeba satransporto saSualebebi, maTi aRWurviloba,
sagangebo situaciebis marTvis departamentis (MoE) samaSvelo Zalebi,
raionuli organizaciebi da kerZo biznesmenebi.
samaSvelo Zalebis sagangebo situaciis zonaSi Sesvlis organizacias
uwevs da marTavs sagangebo situaciebis marTvis departamenti (MoE) adre
SemuSavebuli gegmis mixedviT.
3.4. organizaciuli RonisZiebebi Ramis saaTebSi
prevenciuli zomebis organizaciisa da ganxorcielebis mizniT
sagangebo situaciis zonaSi Ramis saaTebSi aucilebelia kaSxlis maRal
adgilebSi winaswar ganTavsebul iqnes proJeqtorebi;
ganaTebis saSualebebis mobilizacia warmoebs raionuli organizaciebis
da kerZo biznesmenebis mier maTTan dadebuli SeTanxmebis Tanaxmad. is
adgilobrivi organizaciebi, romelTa teritoriebi SeiZleba datborili
48
iqnes kaSxlis ngrevis Sedegad, pasuxismgebeli arian aRniSnuli gegmis
mixedviT, winaswar moimaragon ganaTebis saSualebebi sakuTari da mezobeli
teritoriebisaTvis. monitorings ganaTebis saSualebaTa momaragebasTan
dakavSirebiT anxorcielebs sagangebo situaciebis marTvis departamenti
(MoE).
3.5. samuSaoTa organizacia araxelsayrel klimatur pirobebSi
hidrokvanZebTan da datboril teritoriaze araxelsayrel klimatur
pirobebSi prevenciuli zomebis ganxorcielebisTvis sagangebo situaciebis
marTvis departamenti (MoE) warmomadgenlebi gansazRvraven im savaraudo
zonasa da obieqtebs (Senobebi, servis-xazebi, xeebi da sxva), romlebic
araxelsayrel pirobebSi (Zlieri qari, intensiuri Tovloba, nisli da a.S.)
SeiZleba daingres, rac Seferxebis mizezi iqneba samaSvelo da
sareabilitacio samuSaoTa Casatareblad. amis Semdeg SemuSavdeba Sesabamisi
RonisZiebebi. periodulad, zemoTaRniSnuli saorientacio sqemisa, sagangebo
situaciebis marTvis departamentis (MoE) mier xorcieldeba Sesabamisi
treningebi mosaxleobasTan da raionuli organizaciebis momsaxure
personalTan araxelsayrel pirobebSi maT moqmedebasTan dakavSirebiT.
amasTan erTad, SerCeuli iqneba sxva Zalebic, sagangebo situaciaSi
Semdgomi moqmedebis mizniT.
3.6. damcavi RonisZiebebi mosaxleobisaTvis
kaSxlis ngrevis an saSiSroebis arsebobis SemTxvevaSi, saxelmwifo
sarezervo fondidan da raionuli mmarTvelobis rezervebidan, gamoiyofa
saWiro masala da teqnikuri saSualebebi dacviTi RonisZiebebis Catarebis
uzrunvelyofis mizniT.
49
zemoTaRniSnuli gegmis koncefcia ganapirobebs raionuli samedicino
potencialis da maT specifiurobis (klasifikaciis) dadgenas.
3.7. kooperaciis organizacia
kooperacia xorcieldeba Setyobinebis samsaxurebis, respublikuri da
raionuli samaSvelo Zalebsa da mosaxleobas Soris, amasTan, Sesabamis
kooperaciis sqemaSi (programaSi) aRiniSneba moqmedebis dro da
pasuxismgebeli organizaciebi da pirebi.
3.8. koordinaciis organizacia
kaSxlis dangrevis an misi saSiSroebis arsebobis SemTxvevaSi
saxelmwifo mmarTvelobisa da Sesabamisi raionuli organizaciebisa da
sabWoebis mier xorcieldeba mosaxleobis damcavi RonisZiebebis
koordinacia.
didi masStabis katastrofis SemTxvevaSi, mTavroba qmnis specialur
komisias da SeimuSavebs sakoordinacio gegmas.
3.9. sagangebo pirobebSi mzadyofnis gegmis srulyofis procedura
sagangebo pirobebis mzadyofnis gegma, mosaxleobis dacvis da
kaSxlebis materialuri da teqnikuri uSiSroebis Sesaxeb, yovelwliurad
koreqtirdeba. srulyofis mizniT samm weliwadSi erTxel unda Catardes
treningebi mosaxleobisa da raionuli organizaciebis warmomadgenelTa
monawileobiT, gegmiT gaTvaliswinebuli operatiuli gadawyvetilebaTa
aprobaciis mizniT.
sagangebo pirobebSi mzadyofnis gegmis Semadgenel nawils warmoadgens
tipiuri diagrama, romelic exeba Semdeg sakiTxebs:
50
1. sqema (programa) RonisZiebebisa kaSxlis ngrevis SemTxvevaSi;
2. Setyobinebis procedura kaSxlis ngrevis an misi saSiSroebis
arsebobis SemTxvevaSi;
3. raionuli samedicino saSualebebis CamonaTvali;
4. raionuli samTavrobo uwyebaTa da mosaxleobis Setyobinebis sqema
(Tanmimdevroba) kaSxlis ngrevis SemTxvevaSi;
5. sakoordinacio sqema (moqmedebis Tanmimdevroba) kaSxlis ngrevis
SemTxvevaSi.
51
danarTi # 4
SeTanxmeba ganaTebis saSualebaTa uzrunvelyofis Taobaze
Cven, qvemoT xelismomwerni -------------------------- raionis sagangebo
situaciebis departamentis xelmZRvaneli erTis mxriv da organizaciis
warmomadgeneli an kerZo piri ------------------------------- meores mxriv xels
aweren winamdebare SeTanxmebas imaze, rom ---------------------------------------------
-------------------- pirdeba gasces raionuli sagangebo situaciebis marTvis
departamentis ganyofilebas droebiT xmarebaSi mowyobiloba (CamonaTvali
Tan erTvis) samaSvelo samuSaoTa Catarebis mizniT xudonis kaSxlis
ngrevis SemTxvevaSi da raionuli sagangebo situaciebis marTvis
departamentis ganyofileba pirdeba, rom gamoiyenebs mocemul
mowyobilobebs mxolod dasaxuli miznisaTvis da gaswevs miyenebuli
zaralis kompensacias.
raionuli sagan. situaciebis marTvis organizaciis
departamentis ganyofilebis ufrosi direqtori
(kerZo piri) (kerZo piri)
52
danarTi # 5
sagangebo situaciis donis gansazRvris wesebi
xdomileba situacia sagangebo
situaciis done
1 2 3
nakadi gadaedineba
miwis kaSxalze
wylis gadaRvra wyalsacavidan qimze
mowyobili wyalsaSviT, roca
wyalsacavis bortebis aqtiur
erozias adgili ara aqvs
1
wylis gadaRvra, roca adgili aqvs
wyalsacavis bortebis aqtiur
erozias
2
wylis gadaRvra, romelsac SeuZlia
gamoiwvios dasaxlebaTa datborva
qveda biefSi
2
swrafad progresirebadi wylis
gadaRvra, romelic mwyobridan
gamoiyvans sakontrolo qsels
3
wylis gadaRvra, romelic iwvevs
dasaxlebaTa datborvas qveda biefSi
3
mirTvis datborva
gadadinebuli wylis nakadi ar iwvevs
kaSxlis mirTvis ferdis rRvevas.
amasTan, mosalodnelia wylis
donis daweva wyalsacavSi
2
gadadinebuli wylis nakadi ar iwvevs
kaSxlis mirTvis ferdis rRvevas,
magram mosalodnelia wylis donis
aweva wyalsacavSi
3
gadadinebuli wylis nakadi iwvevs
kaSxlis mirTvis ferdis rRvevas.
3
53
cxrilis gagrZeleba
1 2 3
filtracia
filtraciis axali wyaroebi
kaSxalSi an mis maxloblad
1
filtraciis axali wyaroebi
meqanikuri sufoziiT an wylis
progresirebadi xarjiT
2
filtracia, romlis erTi
gamovlenili wyarodan xarji
aWarbebs 1 l/wm
3
Zabrebi
SeimCneva axali Zabri wyalsacavis
zonaSi
1
Zabris gabaritebi izrdeba swrafad 2
bzarTwarmoqmna
mirTvis areSi
kaSxlis tanSi axali bzarebi siganiT
2,5 mm-ze meti, filtraciis gareSe
1
bzarebi kaSxlis tanSi, romelsac Tan
axlavs filtracia 2
kaSxlis
gadaadgileba
(wanacvleba)
vizualurad SesamCnevi gadaadgileba
(wanacvleba) kaSxlis tanis, misi
elementebis an ferdis Camococeba
1
kldovani ferdis uecari an swrafad
mimdinare Camococeba-gadaadgileba 3
sazomi
instrumentebi
sazomi instrumentebis Cveneba
zRvrulad dasaSveb mniSvnelobaze
zemoT
1
miwisZvrebi
miwisZvra arsebiTia an arsebobs
informacia, rom misi kera kaSxlidan
50 km-iT aris daSorebuli
1
miwisZvra, romlis mier gamowveuli
kaSxlis an misi elementebis
dazianeba fiqsirdeba vizualurad
2
miwisZvra, romelic xdeba garRvevis
talRis warmoqmnis mizezi
3
54
cxrilis gagrZeleba
1 2 3
usafrTxoebisaTvis
Seqmnili saSiSroeba
yumbaris (naRmis) afeTqebis
saSiSroebis Semowmeba, rasac
SesaZloa kaSxlis rRveva mohyves
2
yumbaris (naRmis) afeTqeba, rasac
kaSxlis rRveva mohyva
3
sabotaJi/vandalizmi
kaSxlis an misi elementis dazianeba,
rac gavlenas ar axdens mis
eqspluataciaze
1
kaSxlis an misi elementis dazianeba,
rasac SeuZlia negatiurad imoqmedos
mis eqspluataciaze
1
kaSxlis an misi elementis iseTi
dazianeba, rac iwvevs filtracias
2
55
danarTi 6
56
danarTi 7
57
danarTi 8
58
danarTi 9
59
danarTi 10
60
danarTi 11
- - , 33 .
, .
271.5 , 660 - , 250 - .
1.11 . 3- , - 10.13 . 3.
0.75 % ,
( .1), .
. 1.
1
;
1. . –5 - ; 2. . – 9 - ; 3. . –18.5 - ; 4. . – 23.0 - ; 5. . – 25.5 -I ; 6. . –28.5 - ; 7. . –30.5 - ; 8. – – 33.0 - .
. , , :
1. .
–795 ; – 498 ;
– 46 ;
–19 / ;
2. .
–470 ; – 765 ;
– 37 ;
–16 / ;
3. .
–1,046 ; – 1,146 ;
–18 ;
–11 / ;
4. .
–1590 ; – 1,010 ;
–14 ; – 9 / ;
5. . –1,493 ; – 1,586 ;
–11 ; – 8 / ;
6. . –1,701 ; – 596 ;
–13 ; – 9 / ;
2
3
7. . –1,818 ; – 1,864 ;
– 9 ; – 7 / ;
8. – –1,964 ; – 15,838 ;
–4 ; – 3 / .
, 27, 802 , ,
, .
5.31 5.33, 5.90 5.98.
1
: (0
.75)
:.
..
1.
()
3
1110
2.
-
250
3.
-
310
,13
4.
-66
05.
1,4
6.
75
7.
/
1,5
8.
25
09.
0,
7510
.
111
.
51
012
.
8
4
2
..
#1#2
#3#4
#5
#6#7
#81
23
45
67
89
10i-
5
918
,523
25,5
28,5
30,5
33
:
235
230
170
145
130
116
104
881,
41,
51,
51,
51,
51,
51,
51,
540
035
060
050
080
062
510
0012
00
/1,
51,
51,
41,
51,
51,
51,
51,
5
1
10,
70,
70,
71
11
50
5010
050
080
080
010
0012
00 #
128
024
018
016
014
012
012
095
#1
800
275
1000
1800
1500
1200
2200
2400
#236
028
022
018
016
014
014
010
0
#2
16
0057
513
0025
0035
0025
0010
000
9000
5
2 (
)
12
34
56
78
910
#340
036
024
020
018
016
016
012
0
#
3 19
0095
518
0045
0038
0064
0010
500
9200
11
0,7
0,7
0,7
31
1
5050
100
200
600
100
1000
500
#128
024
018
016
014
012
012
089
,5
#1
50
037
511
100
115
016
0050
023
0015
000
#236
028
022
018
016
014
014
097
#2
800
975
1400
1300
1700
750
2600
2050
0
#340
036
024
020
018
016
016
010
4,5
#3
1800
2475
1500
1400
2150
1600
3400
2600
0
6
7
5.3
3
. .#0
#1#2
#3#4
#5
#6#7
#8
05
918
,523
22,5
28,5
30,5
33
.
3
/16
2249
632
817
7,1
149,
513
8,5
126,
912
0,7
114,
18
:
04,
710
,827
,05
38,2
345
,43
54,5
460
,21
69,2
90
6,96
13,5
38,6
50,6
158
,366
,94
73,7
983
,16
23,7
979
,412
423
6,9
286,
931
4,7
348
370,
239
823
,79
74,6
113
209,
824
8,7
269,
229
3,5
310
328.
71
/32
.218
,616
,410
,54
8,67
7,97
8,89
7,14
3,4
14
8,6
44,6
3616
,08
12,1
49,
7811
,71
7,82
2,64
150
4637
,517
,58
13,6
411
,28
13,2
19,
324,
14
410
280
226
186,
115
7,1
139,
812
7,7
111,
890
,64
:
26
6,4
795
470
1046
1590
1493
1701
1818
1964
,3
26
6,4
498
765
1146
1010
1586
596,
418
6415
838
.2
.3
8
.4
.5
.6
9
.7
.8
.9
10
11
,( . ,,
” 2011 . 273 .)
,
.
Trans Electrica Ltd., 2013
GPS Leica -1200 NaVisound – 515- .
GPS Leica -1200
NaVisound – 515
GPS
GPS –
HYPAC
GPS-
x y
GPS
HYPAC
Surfer-
Grafer-
Autocad-
dxf
GPS