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© 2011 IBM Corporation Operational Utilization of WRF-ARW and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) in Forecasting and Validation in Southeastern New York State as Applied to Hurricane Irene James Cipriani, Lloyd Treinish, Anthony Praino IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center Yorktown Heights, NY 1

© 2011 IBM Corporation Operational Utilization of WRF-ARW and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) in Forecasting and Validation in Southeastern New York State

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Page 1: © 2011 IBM Corporation Operational Utilization of WRF-ARW and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) in Forecasting and Validation in Southeastern New York State

© 2011 IBM Corporation

Operational Utilization of WRF-ARW and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) in Forecasting and Validation in Southeastern New York State as Applied to Hurricane Irene

James Cipriani, Lloyd Treinish, Anthony Praino

IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center

Yorktown Heights, NY

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Page 2: © 2011 IBM Corporation Operational Utilization of WRF-ARW and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) in Forecasting and Validation in Southeastern New York State

© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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Page 3: © 2011 IBM Corporation Operational Utilization of WRF-ARW and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) in Forecasting and Validation in Southeastern New York State

© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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Page 4: © 2011 IBM Corporation Operational Utilization of WRF-ARW and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) in Forecasting and Validation in Southeastern New York State

© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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Page 5: © 2011 IBM Corporation Operational Utilization of WRF-ARW and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) in Forecasting and Validation in Southeastern New York State

© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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Page 6: © 2011 IBM Corporation Operational Utilization of WRF-ARW and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) in Forecasting and Validation in Southeastern New York State

© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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Page 7: © 2011 IBM Corporation Operational Utilization of WRF-ARW and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) in Forecasting and Validation in Southeastern New York State

© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

Deep Thunder New York Forecast for Tropical Storm Irene

Visualization of Clouds, Wind and Precipitation, including Rain Bands

One of six operational forecasts covering the event with this one showing tropical storm not hurricane strength at landfall with two days lead time

Heavy rainfall predicted with similar distribution to reported rainfall

Page 8: © 2011 IBM Corporation Operational Utilization of WRF-ARW and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) in Forecasting and Validation in Southeastern New York State

© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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Page 9: © 2011 IBM Corporation Operational Utilization of WRF-ARW and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) in Forecasting and Validation in Southeastern New York State

© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

Deep Thunder New York Forecast for Tropical Storm Irene

Visualization of Clouds, Wind and Precipitation, including Rain Bands

Fourth of six operational forecasts covering the event confirming the earlier forecast of tropical storm not hurricane strength at landfall and showing the track to the north

Heavy rainfall predicted with similar distribution to reported rainfall

Page 10: © 2011 IBM Corporation Operational Utilization of WRF-ARW and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) in Forecasting and Validation in Southeastern New York State

© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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Page 11: © 2011 IBM Corporation Operational Utilization of WRF-ARW and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) in Forecasting and Validation in Southeastern New York State

© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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Page 12: © 2011 IBM Corporation Operational Utilization of WRF-ARW and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) in Forecasting and Validation in Southeastern New York State

© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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Page 13: © 2011 IBM Corporation Operational Utilization of WRF-ARW and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) in Forecasting and Validation in Southeastern New York State

© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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Page 14: © 2011 IBM Corporation Operational Utilization of WRF-ARW and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) in Forecasting and Validation in Southeastern New York State

© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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Page 21: © 2011 IBM Corporation Operational Utilization of WRF-ARW and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) in Forecasting and Validation in Southeastern New York State

© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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© Copyright IBM Corporation 2011

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