2011 ECC International PROBLEM SOLVING & DECISION
MAKING
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2011 ECC International At the end of the training, participants
are expected to: Understand how to use an innovative yet structured
process-based problem solving approach in practical scenarios.
Recognize how to take informed decisions and calculated risks.
Learning Objectives
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2011 ECC International PROBLEM SOLVING & DECISION MAKING
Module 3
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2011 ECC International There are no big problems, there are
just a lot of little problems - Henry Ford
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2011 ECC International PROBLEM SOLVING MODELS/ METHODOLOGIES
Section 1
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2011 ECC International What is problem solving? Problem solving
is a higher order thinking process aimed at improving performance
or solving impending problems in any aspect of life. It requires
the modulation and control of more routine or fundamental skills
with structured thinking and strong effort from a committed group
Service Delivery Team Process Group Team Middle Management Project
Sponsor Support Team
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2011 ECC International What is problem solving? Problem solving
is often misunderstood Issues are confused as problems and problems
are confused as causes IssueProblemCause Terminology is very
critical before looking into the methods of problem solving
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2011 ECC International Issue Proposal to solve a problem
Situation What a circumstance is Purpose What we want to do or what
we want to be Problem Some portions of a situation that cannot
realize purpose Problem Process with set of actions to attain the
purpose / aim Solving Cause What brings about a problem Identifying
the appropriate solution / problem solving calls for strong
thinking pattern Problem Solving Terminology
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2011 ECC International Your Thoughts.. Team Building
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2011 ECC International STRATEGIC THINKING Judging based on
whether a situation is focused or not remember Strategy is not
necessarily strategic EMOTIONAL THINKING Judging based on the
participants REALISTIC THINKING Starts from what one can do and fix
the essential problems first EMPIRICAL THINKING Judging based on
previous experience Thinking patterns
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2011 ECC International SYSTEMS THINKING Scientific problem
solving approach utilizing system concept Purpose Input Result
Output Function Inside cause Outside cause System based problem
solving process Thinking patterns
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2011 ECC International Systems thinking brings structure into
the problem solving approach It is based on system concept Clearly
defines components and the boundaries of each one of them. Major
components Purpose Input Output Function Causes (Inside / Outside)
Result Systems Thinking
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2011 ECC International Structured problem solving approach
Mainly applicable to product / process improvement through
correction / elimination of problems Applies 8 timeless principles
to solve problems Based on using a team approach rather than
focusing on individuals 8D Methodology
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2011 ECC International Form Team Describe problem Containment
Implement and Verify Interim actions Verify Corrective action
Implement it Prevent recurrence Congratulate team Identify
potential causes Select likely causes Is it root cause? Identify
possible solution Y N 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8D Methodology
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2011 ECC International Strong creative problem solving
methodology Follows a systematic approach to solve problems against
other Sisyphean tasks Always strives for ideal solutions by
avoiding any compromises common with other methods Major advantage
is its ability to by-pass / eliminate contradictions of the system
by refusing trade-offs TRIZ Methodology
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2011 ECC International The Search for solution TRIZ
Methodology
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2011 ECC International Using the best practices from all these
methods problem solving and decision making can be carved out as a
simple SOLVE methodology Similar to the DMAIC approach of SIX SIGMA
S PECIFY O BSERVE & MEASURE ANA L YZE V ERIFY & CHOOSE E
XECUTE & EVALUATE Hybrid PSDM Methodology
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2011 ECC International A problem well stated is a problem half
solved - John Dewey
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2011 ECC International Break problems apart in a hierarchical
form using a logic tree Start at 20,000 ft view and move
progressively downward Logic tree diagrams can be drawn from a
functional perspective (sales / research / accounting / operations)
or from existing problem perspective Create and follow a structure
for problem solving o Structure helps in gripping the issues
rapidly o M.E.C.E (MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE & COMPLETELY EXHAUSTIVE)
o Do not try to reinvent the wheel Problem Framing
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2011 ECC International Business Needs No needs No problems !!!
So identify business needs Business needs can usually be in several
forms People Competency Market / Customer Financial Operational
Identify Business Needs - SPECIFY
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2011 ECC International During FY 2005, the 1st Time Call
Resolution Efficiency for New Customer Hardware Setup was 89%. This
represents a gap of 8% from the targets @ 97% that amounts to US
$2,000,000 of annualized cost impact. Problem Statement
Example
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2011 ECC International Fill in the Blanks for Your Project:
During ___________________________________, the
____________________ for (Period of time for baseline performance)
(Primary business measure) ________________________ was
_________________. (A key business process) (Baseline performance)
This gap of ____________________________ (Business objective target
vs. baseline) from ___________________ represents
____________________ of cost impact. (Business objective) (Cost
impact of gap) Problem Statement Template
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2011 ECC International Structuring is only the first step.
After breakup of the problems Develop a strong hypothesis Develop a
strong hypothesis Using an initial hypothesis to a likely solution
o Dramatically increase efficiency & effectiveness of decision
making o Helps avoid potential blind alleys Proving or disproving a
hypothesis is more effective than analyzing all available facts
Problem Framing
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2011 ECC International Brainstorming can help in absorbing
various facts and creating new ideas about the hypothesis Utilize
all initial facts to generate hypothesis Identify and distinguish
the facts o Helpful details or Mere numbers Bridge the gap Bridge
the gap between the problem structure and hypothesis using issue
maps / trees and further details Using an initial hypothesis
dramatically increases efficiency and effectiveness of decision
making Problem Framing
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2011 ECC International Data gathering throws a wide avenue for
improvement in Organizations It is neither easy nor fun. But it can
be made simple and painless Data Qualitative Quantitative OBSERVE
& MEASURE Data Gathering
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2011 ECC International Data Qualitative Quantitative
Brainstorming Research Interviewing Surveys Affinity Diagram Tally
Sheets Check Sheets Quality Function Deployment Research Data
Gathering Major Techniques
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2011 ECC International Select group of people with background
in the process area Create the right mix in the group Solicit for
ideas and moderate the discussion No idea is a bad idea
Participate. Be Creative. Encourage wild and exaggerated ideas No
criticisms allowed Data Gathering Qualitative
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2011 ECC International Remember o No idea is a bad idea o
Participate o Be Creative. Encourage wild and exaggerated ideas o
No criticisms allowed o Quantity counts more than quality at this
stage o Build on the ideas provided by others o Evaluate ideas only
at the end of the session Data Gathering Qualitative
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2011 ECC International Interviewing Tips Be prepared Interview
in pairs LISTEN Dont Lead Use indirect approach Dont ask for too
much Emphasize on preparation and courtesy Data Gathering
Qualitative
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2011 ECC International Critical step where we prove or disprove
the proposed hypothesis Interpretation of analysis is of two types
1. Understanding the data and piece it together 2. Assembling these
findings into an externally directed end-product o This represents
the course of action for the Organization There are a number of
analysis tools to choose from to interpret the data It is critical
to choose the solution that fits the particular problem
Interpreting Results
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2011 ECC International Analysis Qualitative Quantitative Cause
& Effect Diagram Affinity Diagram Flowchart Prioritization
Matrix Pareto Chart Check Sheets Cost of Quality Control Chart
Common Analyses for Interpretation
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2011 ECC International Commonly called Fishbone diagram (due to
its appearance) or Ishikawa Diagram Extremely useful in organizing
and systematically summarizing results and causes Effect Cause II
Cause I Cause IVCause V Cause III ANALYZE Cause & Effect
Diagram
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2011 ECC International Need to study a problem/issue to
determine the root cause Want to study all the possible reasons why
a process is beginning to have difficulties, problems, or
breakdowns Need to identify areas for data collection Want to study
why a process is not performing properly or producing the desired
results Cause & Effect Diagram Why?
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2011 ECC International 1.Clearly identify and define the
problem, symptom, or effect for which the causes must be
identified. 2.Place the problem or symptom being explored at the
right, enclosed in a box. 3.Draw the central spine as a thick line
pointing to it from the left. 4.Brainstorm to identify the "major
categories" of possible causes (not less than 2 and normally not
more than 6 or 7). If other applicable data such as check sheets
are present, incorporate them as well. Cause & Effect Diagram
How?
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2011 ECC International M aterials M other Nature M an M achine
M ethods M easurement System Variation Major Categories
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2011 ECC International 5.Place each of the identified "major
categories" of causes in a box or on the diagram and connect it to
the central spine by a line 6.Within each "major category" ask,
"Why does this condition exist?" 7.Continue to add clauses to each
branch until the fishbone is completed. 8.Once all the bones have
been completed, identify the likely, actionable Root Cause(s).
Cause & Effect Diagram How?
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2011 ECC International Sample Cause & Effect Diagram
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2011 ECC International Named after Italian economist Vilfredo
Pareto In any group of elements, a small number of elements
determine most of the results. It is also known as the 80/20 rule
e.g., 20% of the causes account for 80% of the problems. Concept of
vital few-trivial many Pareto Chart
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2011 ECC International A vertical bar chart where bars
represent the components of the total effect or problem Arranged in
descending order according to their contribution to the total A
Pareto Diagram allows data to be displayed as a bar chart and
enables the main contributions to a problem to be highlighted.
Pareto Chart
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2011 ECC International 1.Determine data classification items
2.Determine the check sheet items and collect data 3.Tabulate data
for each classification item 4.Arrange data in ascending or
descending order of occurrence frequency 5.Calculate cumulative
frequency of occurrence against the causes and plot values a
histogram 6.Use frequency on the y-axis and causes on the x-axis
Constructing a Pareto Chart
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2011 ECC International CategoryFrequencyPercent of
totalCumulative % Wrong dose10050 Wrong time703585 Wrong
medicine157.592.5 Wrong patient8496.5 Medicine dc'd4298.5 Missed
dose31.5100 Grand Total200100% 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20
0 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Wrong dose Wrong time
Wrong medicine Wrong patient Wrong dcd Missed dose Sample Pareto
Chart
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2011 ECC International PROBLEM SOLVING STAGESTOOLS / TECHNIQUES
Identify & select a process or problem Flow charts / Balanced
Scorecard Interviews and surveys Data sheets Brainstorming &
other consensus techniques Describe the problemData sheets Pareto
charts Bar charts & Control charts Develop a broad perspective
by identifying all possible causes Data sheets Brain storming Fish
bone diagrams Develop a consensus on root causeData sheets &
Pareto charts Correlation charts Brainstorming & other
consensus techniques Create solution and action planBrainstorming,
Control plan techniques Tools & Techniques Selection Guide
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2011 ECC International Once the data is interpreted into useful
information through appropriate analysis, the next step is to o
Present the results to the team / corresponding personnel o Get the
buy-in of the team to implement the right solution This requires
clear decision making strategy to be followed by the team Decision
making however is a critical part of every single step in problem
solving Let us look in some detail the process of effective
decision making Next Steps
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2011 ECC International The problem is not that there are
problems It is expecting otherwise and thinking that having
problems is a problem. - Theodore Rubin
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2011 ECC International DECISION MAKING MODELS/ METHODOLOGIES
Section 2
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2011 ECC International (Attitude/Style/Education/Experience)
Leadership Competencies Organizational Leadership Levels Level 1:
Lead Self Decision Making Communications (Verbal & Non-Verbal)
Integrity Interpersonal Relations Five Leadership Specialized Skill
Areas (SSAs) Buying & Selling Business Acumen Level 2: Lead
Others Level 3: Lead Managers Level 4: Functional Leader Level 5:
Business Leader Level 6: Group Leader Level 7: Senior Executive
Leader 7 Levels of Organizational Leadership Mastery Importance of
decision-making
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2011 ECC International (Decision Making Accuracy*) (Decision
Making Time*) AccurateInaccurate QuickSlow/Long *Note: Accuracy is
not proportionate/or necessarily related to time. Decision-Making
Spectrums
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2011 ECC International Problem solving is concerned with
overcoming obstacles in the path toward an objective and may or may
not require action. A decision is an act requiring judgment that is
translated into action. It is more comprehensive than problem
solving They are interrelated but not interchangeable Decision
Making Basics
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2011 ECC International Individual decision making Group
decision makingOrganizational decision makingMetaorganizational
decision making The Scope of Decision Making
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2011 ECC International Group Organization Metaorganization
Individual Decisional Outputs (Actions transactions, outcomes)
Decisional Inputs (Objectives, information, resources, energy)
Permeable Boundaries Interactional Levels External Environment The
Scope of Decision Making
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2011 ECC International Set objectives Follow-up & Control
Find alternatives Implement decisions Compare & analyze
alternatives Make the choice Revise objectives Renew search Revise
/ Update objectives Take necessary corrective action V ERIFY AND
CHOOSE E XECUTE AND EVALUATE Decision Making Process
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2011 ECC International Set Objectives 1 Objectives constitute
the foundation of effective decision making While making the right
decision is the means the objective is the end Success of the
decision making process lies in the measure of attaining the
objectives Decision Making Process
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2011 ECC International Set SMART objectives S Specific M
Measurable A Achievable R Realistic T Time-bound Decision Making
Process
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2011 ECC International Find alternatives 2 Consider limitations
of time and money Additional information follows the principle of
increasing cost and decreasing value Start search in areas around
the zone of cost effectiveness Decision Making Process
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2011 ECC International Cost of additional information Decision
Making Process
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2011 ECC International Compare and Analyze Alternatives 3 All
searches must lead to alternatives that must be properly analyzed
Decision analysis or analysis of alternatives is critical to
meeting the objectives Decision Analysis Resolution (DAR) is one of
the International best practice methodologies used specifically for
this purpose Decision Making Process
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2011 ECC International Decision Analysis needs to be applied
when the decision is not straightforward or clear-cut when the
impact of the decision is very high when there are many
alternatives with apparently equal importance when there are
several pros and cons and we need to arrive at the most optimum
solution DAR When to use?
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2011 ECC International Decisions related to areas assessed as
HIGH risk elements. Selection among reusable components, COTS or
development Supplier selection To arrive at the most appropriate
architecture or design technique Selection of a suitable life cycle
model Decision on the levels, sequence and methodology of
integration DAR Some Guidelines
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2011 ECC International PMI Methodology Pugh MatrixForce Field
AnalysisDecision Trees Six Thinking Hats DAR Major Techniques
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2011 ECC International PMI stands for Plus / Minus /
Implications Based on the weighing of pros and cons decision making
method It takes into account the implications apart from the pros
and cons PMI is extremely useful technique to validate / analyze
the decision made Clearly indicates whether the chosen decision
will have a positive improvement effect PMI Method
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2011 ECC International Identify the problem and gather possible
alternatives / solutions Once the alternatives are identified we
can analyze each one to find out if the decision would improve the
condition or solve the problem Create a table with columns
Positive, Negative & Implications Then list down the effects of
the decision under each of these columns to the rightful place they
belong Add relative scores to each of these effects (+) for
positive impact () for negative impact (+) or () for the
implications based on the effect Add up the scores to see the
strength of the positive / negative impact An obvious decision must
be reached at the end of this short exercise PMI Method How?
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2011 ECC International A young professional is deciding where
to live. Her question is 'Should she move to the big city?' The PMI
table below helps in making the right decision
PlusMinusImplications More going on (+5)Have to sell house
(-6)Easier to find new job? (+1) Easier to see friends (+5)More
pollution (-3)Meet more people? (+2) Easier to get places (+3)Less
space (-3)More difficult to get own work done? (-4) No countryside
(-2) More difficult to get to work? (-4) +13-18 (+13) + (-18) +
(-1) = -6 So here the choice is obvious!... PMI Method How?
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2011 ECC International 'Six Thinking Hats is used to look at
decisions from a number of important perspectives It forces to move
outside the habitual thinking style Helps to get a more rounded
view of a situation In meetings it has the benefit of blocking the
confrontations that happen when people with different thinking
styles discuss the same problem Looking at a Decision From All
Points of View Six Thinking Hats
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2011 ECC International Parallel Thinking A house from Four
sides Parallel Vs Arguments Not categories of people These are
directions, requests to think in a particular fashion Assumption
that Mind can not focus on everything all at once The Six Thinking
Hats Philosophy
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2011 ECC International Single use in a meeting Sequence Use in
meeting s Any hat as often as needed Any number of Hats Any
sequence Discipline is important Stay with the hat of the moment No
Arguments please Using the Hats
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2011 ECC International More thorough, yet simple Time saving
Removes Ego positions One thing at a time leads to more focused,
better result producing thinking Put together the entire map, the
route is obvious Not identify the route and the imagine the map
Benefits
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2011 ECC International Intuitive Informative Constructive
Cautious Creative Reflective Six Thinking Hats
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2011 ECC International What do you feel about the suggestion?
What are your gut reactions? What intuitions do you have? Dont
think too long or too hard. The Red Hat
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2011 ECC International The information seeking hat. What are
the facts? What information is available? What is relevant? When
wearing the white hat we are neutral in our thinking. The White
Hat
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2011 ECC International The sunshine hat. It is positive and
constructive. It is about effectiveness and getting a job done.
What are the benefits, the advantages? The Yellow Hat
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2011 ECC International The caution hat. In black hat the
thinker points out errors or pit-falls. What are the risks or
dangers involved? Identifies difficulties and problems. The Black
Hat
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2011 ECC International This is the creative mode of thinking.
Green represents growth and movement. In green hat we look to new
ideas and solutions. Lateral thinking wears a green hat. The Green
Hat
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2011 ECC International The control hat, organising thinking
itself. Sets the focus, calls for the use of other hats. Monitors
and reflects on the thinking processes used. Blue is for planning.
The Blue Hat
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2011 ECC International Deriving power from focused thinking
Saving time Removing ego from decisions Doing one thing at a time
Results of six hat thinking
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2011 ECC International Decision-making strategies Computational
Judgmental Compromise Inspirational A Typology of Decisions
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2011 ECC International Decision categories Category I Routine,
recurring, certainty with regard to the outcome Category II
Non-routine, nonrecurring, uncertainty with regard to the outcome A
Typology of Decisions
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2011 ECC International Decision combinations Category I /
Computational strategy Category II / Judgmental strategy Top
management makes Category II decisions. Operating management makes
Category I decisions. Middle management supervises the making of
Category I decisions and supports the making of Category II
decisions. A Typology of Decisions
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2011 ECC International Category II Long-range organizational
objectives Best choice from among a set of alternatives Decision
involves organizational change Decision requires a commitment of
resources Choice is a means to an end, not an end to itself
Decision maker tends to overestimate success Success is measurable
through objectives attainment Characteristics of Managerial
Decisions
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2011 ECC International Concept of Decision-Making Strategies
Knowledge about outcomePreference for outcome Strong preferenceWeak
preference High-level knowledgeComputational decision making
strategy Compromise decision making strategy Low-level
knowledgeJudgmental decision- making strategy Inspirational
decision making strategy
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2011 ECC International 4 Choice is mere culmination of the
entire decision making process All results from the previous
decision analysis must be appropriately applied to choose the right
decision It makes better sense to collaborate with the team
involved in order share ideas and choose the right alternative
Making the choice
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2011 ECC International 5 Implementation / Rollout of the
decision made is very critical Proper presentation of the decision
decides the buy-in from the team Decision success is a function of
its quality and implementation Decision Implementation
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2011 ECC International Success factorsDetractors Proper
observation of operational constraints Disregard of risks involved
Influence of decision makerLack of clear direction Involvement from
implementersLack of proper coordination Lack of conflict of
interestToo much additional information Decision
Implementation
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2011 ECC International 6 Essential to ensure that implemented
decision meets the objectives Performance measurement is made based
on observing implemented decision in relation to the standard
derived from the objective Involves corrective and preventive
action implementation where necessary Follow-up and Control
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2011 ECC International Solve the problem that really exists NOT
just the symptoms of a problem NOT the problem you already have a
solution for NOT the problem you wish existed and NOT the problem
someone else thinks exists.
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2011 ECC International If you do what youve always done, youll
get what you always got! - W. Edwards Deming