© 2007 UNDP. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Proprietary and Confidential. Not For Distribution Without Prior Written Permission. Adaptation Energy and

© 2007 UNDP. All Rights Reserved Worldwide.Proprietary and Confidential. Not For Distribution Without Prior Written Permission.

Adaptation

Energy and Environment PracticeCommunity of Practice Meeting

24-26 September, 2007Bratislava, Slovak Republic

2UNDP Environment and Energy Group 2

Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management

content

•Adaptation portfolio - current status;•Adaptation funds – funding availability;•Barriers to funding for RBEC; •Vulnerability – to guide programming;•Risks and adaptation needs in the region;

•Options to do Adaptation;•Three-pronged approach;•Main services;•Armenian Case Study;•Key takeaways;



PortfolioAgreed portfolio target for the region – $12.9 millionActual Status:• Internal pipeline since 2005: 8 projects worth of $10.9m;• None has materialised yet;

• SPA: – Balaton Lake project - the only adaptation project in the region;– Albania and Armenia PIFs submitted;

• SCCF:• 5 projects worth of $6,165,000 • No actual projects – only hopeshopes

• MDG-F: 2 projects submitted – Macedonia, Turkey.• Some good news: INC/SNC in 12 countries of the region to

support initial step towards adaptation - V&A



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LDCF SPA SCCF Adaptation(estimated 2012)

Adaptation Funding Forecast

Total funding Funds remaining

The Adaptation Fund promises to be substantial (around $1 billion by 2012)…

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Barriers to funding for adaptation in ECIS

Region suffers from politics around adaptation funding

• Current status of funding favors Least Developed Countries

• Region is not most vulnerable to climate change (see next slide)

• Focus for CDM is Asia (especially China)

ECIS countries will need to diversify their funding sources identify non-traditional opportunities screen current investment decisions for climate risk



Identifying high-risk countries to guide strategic programming

Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability

Historic hazards

Historic mortality outcomes to flood, drought, and cyclones (1980-2000)

Source: Dilley et al. 2005

Projected hazards

Likelihood of future climate extremes (flood, drought, cyclone)

Source: IPCC Assessment Report 4, 2007

VulnerabilityVulnerability-Resilience Indicator Model (VRIM) scores based on socio-economic sensitivity (-) & capacity (+), 2000 data

Source: Brenkert & Malone, forthcomingCaveats • Excludes economic damages and displaced people, important risks in many regions. Index is based on national level data, illustrative only• Should be repeated using region-relevant data

Risk =



Africa Asia LAC Arab States Europe CISMozambique (.63)

Bangladesh* (.42) Haiti (.50) Somalia (.31) Tajikistan (.17)

Niger* (.58) Pakistan (.33) Nicaragua (.25) Sudan (.21) Kyrgyzstan (.13)

Burkina Faso (.50)

India (.25) Guatemala* (.25) Yemen (.21) Uzbekistan (.13)

Nigeria (.42) Laos (.19) Honduras (.25) Djibouti (.17) Moldova (.13)

Ethiopia (.38) Philippines (.17) Costa Rica (.25) Morocco* (.17) Georgia (.08)

Lesotho (.38) Nepal (.17)Dominican Rep. (.19)

Algeria (.08)Turkmenistan (.08)

Mali (.38) China (.13) El Salvador (.17) Egypt (.08) Armenia (.06)

Madagascar (.33) Viet Nam* (.13) Jamaica* (.17) Jordan (.08) Azerbaijan (.06)

Angola, Malawi, Togo, Uganda (.31)

Cambodia (.13) Bolivia* (.13) Tunisia (.06) Kazakhstan* (.06)

Bhutan, Malaysia, Iran, Mongolia (.08)

Cuba, Panama (.08)

Do NOT share or quote

Legend: LDCs UNDP Projects *CBA countries



Water shortage Flood risk Fires Sea-level rise hazards

DRIER

Climate change impacts are anticipated across the region

Changes in key climatic parameters are already evident. Europe has warmed more than global average, with a 0.950C increase in last 100 years.

Based on IPCC AR4 (projections for 2080-2099), NCs and other sources



This translates into crop production decrease up to 30% in Central Asia, even if direct positive physiological effects of CO2 are taken into account

Climate Change poses risks to MDG achievements in RBEC - Food security



Water stressAttributable to observed changes in precipitation and ice and snow cover. Examples:

• Armenia – water reserves in snow have already decreased 5-10%• Azerbaijan - seasonal snow line has risen from 1.300-1.500m to 1.800-2.000m;

subsequently, water resources will be reduced by 5.7 – 7.7 km3

• Macedonia - average discharge will decrease by 10-20% in next 50 years • Kazakhstan - surface water resources in most basins will decrease 9-29% in 50-100 years• Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan - need for water will dramatically increase to sustain

current level of productivity of cotton and cereals (in some instances by 70%). • Albania - total runoff formation already decreased by 10%; will decrease 30% by mid-

century



Human and Economic Losses•Historic mortality on account of flooding has been highest in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

•Economic losses from flooding as proportion of GDP has historically been highest in Turkey, Western Kazakhstan, parts of Russia, Bulgaria, Serbia, Romania, Belarus, Albania, Macedonia

– Azerbaijan: Annual average damages from floods during 1980-1990 estimated at USD 20 million. Value of business assets presently at risk from flooding about USD 3.7 billion (Asian Development Bank)

– Macedonia: Regional floods during past three decades caused total damage estimated at USD 193.8 million

– Turkey: Floods and landslides accounted for 35% of all natural disasters, damaging over 1800 admin units during past 25 years.



Countries at highest risk to climate change, particularly climate-related disasters

Risk score

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The first tier of high risk countries represents the most vulnerable group (low income countries) in the region that should feature as priority countries for adaptation actions.



The challenge of climate change can be reduced with adaptation

ADAPTATIONEMBEDDING RESILIENCE

THINKING IN DEVELOPMENT

PLANNING



What are the options to do adaptation in RBEC



UNDP’s three-pronged approach to adaptation

Mainstreaming climate change risk management into national development strategies is a Key Result Area in the Energy & Environment section of UNDP’s 2008-2011 Strategic Plan.

3. Piloting innovative national adaptation projects to feed lessons into 1 and 2

1. Climate-proofing UN & UNDP country support

2. Embedding resilience thinking into domestic development strategies



Mainstreaming means capturing opportunities in UNDP’s practice areas

Integration into UNDP programming

Integration into national developmentstrategies

M&E framework

Poverty Reduction &

MDG Achievement

Crisis Prevention & Recovery

Environment & Sustainable

Development

Democratic Governance

Agriculture & Food Security

-

Public Health

--

Disaster Risk

Managem’t-

Coastal Developm’t--

Water Resources & Quality

-

UNDP Objective: MDG Achievement with Climate Change

Reducing climate risks and vulnerability

Indicators

Natural Resources--

Working through the UN system: UNDAF/CCA and CPD/CPAP to internalize climate risk management into programming guidance



Tools and services build upon identified demand

UNDP surveyed government, UN agencies, NGOs, private sector and academia to identify stakeholder priorities for adaptation resources

Primary interests related to Adaptation

0 50 100 150 200 250

Other (please specify)

'Mainstreaming' into donor agency procedures

Hard adaptation measures

Financing adaptation

Community-scale projects

Integration across themes

Assessment/ natl adaptation framew orks

'Mainstreaming' into national policies/plans

Soft adaptation measures



UNDP will offer different levels of service and programming

Step 1: Risk Screening

Step 2: Technical, Policy &

Advisory Services

Step 3: CapacityDevelopment

INTEGRATION OF CLIMATE RISKS INTO UN & UNDP COUNTRY PROGRAMMING

Step 1: Risk

Screening


Advisory Services

Step 3: Capacity Development for

Policy Makers

INTEGRATION OF CLIMATE RISKS INTO NATIONALDEVELOPMENT & SECTORAL POLICIES

Preparatory Phase: Country

Climate RiskProfile



Services offered for climate risk profiling

Preparatory Phase: Country

Climate RiskProfile

• Online tool for national risk assessments

• Country Risk Profile

• Guidance document: key steps for assessing and managing climate risks (to come)

• Guidance document: use of climate scenarios in adaptation planning and project design (to come)



UNDP profiling tool: Online tool for national climate risk assessments

www.undp.org/gef/adaptation



Services and tools for integrating climate risks into UN programming

Step 1: Risk Screening


Advisory Services

Step 3: CapacityDevelopment

• UNCT Programming• UNDP Programming• UNDP Projects• Direct Budget Support

• Guidance• Resources• Quality assurance• M&E

• Online training (1 hour)• UNCT training workshop (1 day)• UNDP training workshop (1 day)

Services Tools

• APF/SEA approach• Disaster risk

management approach• Climate risk management

approach

• M&E framework and indicators



Services and tools for embedding resilience thinking into domestic strategies

Step 1: Risk

Screening


Advisory Services

Step 3: Capacity Development for

Policy Makers

• NDS/PRS screening• Screening of SWAps/

sector-wide approaches • Economic assessment

of adaptation options

• Guidance• Resources• Quality assurance• M&E

• Policy-maker training workshop (1 day)

Tools

• APF/SEA approach• Disaster risk

management approach• Climate risk management

approach

• M&E framework and indicators



Case Study: Mainstreaming CRM into UNDP’s country programme in Armenia



Extreme weather events and disasters –In 2000 losses from droughts in the sector of agriculture made up $66,7 mln., constituting 10.1% of agricultural gross product. In 2005 the crop yield loses from hail, floods and frost combined made up about $15 mln.Climate aridation and changes in biota – precipitation has decreased by 5.8% and temperature has increased by 0.7°C in Armenia. At present, the forest area damaged annually by insects is approximately 14,500ha (on average). Land productivity – humidity of soil will decrease by 10-30% by mid century and subsequent moisture deficit will impact the plants’ growing capacity. Water stress –The water reserves in snow on whole territory have already decreased by 5-10% during the baseline period (1961-1990). Health issues –Increase in number of malaria morbidities has been detected (e.g., in 1998 the number of people contracting the three-day malaria reached 1156).



UNDP programme priorities• Laying foundation for sustainable socially-oriented growth• Promoting accountable, transparent and effective governing institutions • Supporting sound management of natural resources Community Development Programme is flagship programme of UNDP - Armenia • Wide coverage – all bordering marzes

(regions)• Community development plans• Performance budgeting• Rehabilitation of rural infrastructure• Communal management, creation of

communal pools of assets

• Regions dependent on agriculture• Extreme weather events may have

negative repercussions

• Without adaptation, CC may make it difficult for certain communities to participate in rural economies



Key vulnerabilities in Armenia:

Hails, Floods, Mudflows

Climate Aridation, Droughts

Aridation, Droughts,

Forest fires, pests

Droughts, Seasonal

Floods, Hails

Droughts, Seasonal

Floods, Hail



Vulnerability

Human

Physical Natural

SocialFinancial

What to do about it?

The basic building blocks -vulnerability and adaptive capacity

( exposure, adaptive capacity)

Hazard

Impact = f



Screening methodology

Main question: Will community development lead to adaptation? May/may not increase adaptive capacity

Human

Physical Natural

SocialFinancial

1. Are pilot/local actions resilient to climate change impacts?

2. Do these investments increase vulnerability to climate change impacts?

Climate risk assessments



Assessment of risks, vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities:

Screening portfolio

Compiling information & scoping the components of the studyStage 1: Screening

Perception of community about frequency And intensity of extreme weather events and

Climate hazards (floods, mudslides, droughts, etc)

current coping and risk reduction measures

Crop diversification, seasonal switching,Availability of compensation, information,

etc

Type and magnitude of losses (humanLosses, damage to infrastructure, economic

Losses, such as crop failures) Stage 2: Assessment

Adaptation options for development effectivenessImprove access to information; changes in

Cropping and tillage practices;Livelihood diversification;

Addressing adaptation costs in local budgets

Stage 3: Adaptation

‘No regrets’ changes to activities, eg:Increasing resilience to today’s climate variability

Developing climate risk informationContinuum of alterations to activities from some incremental cost

through to 100% incremental costs for adaptation



End Notes

•Reasons for climate proofing:•Vulnerability to climate risks and disasters is part of social vulnerability and

needs to be addressed as an integral element of poverty reduction and MDG efforts;

•Poverty reduction actions are not “climate-risk” neutral, as they have the potential to either increase or diminish vulnerability to climate change impacts;

•On-going cooperation with BCPR for natural disaster’s prevention creates conducive conditions for adaptation;

•Condition for successful resource mobilization - UNDP needs to internalize climate risk management in its programming guidance

•Adaptation is an opportunity. It can help attract external resources for addressing the risks and capturing adaptation opportunities in UNDP’s poverty, natural resource management and governance programmes.



End notes

• SNC is a technical anchor for informing the CRM actions at multiple

scales, supported by different funds;

• SNC quality will precondition success of CRM efforts

• Bring SNC experts into the policy dialogue;

• Strong buy-in by senior management;

• Other practice leaders may feel we add additional work to their portfolio;

• BSPR project can offer a good starting point to address the climate risk management at the baseline;



Group Exercise on Climate ScreeningLet’s try in Practice

Documents

© 2007 UNDP. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Proprietary and Confidential. Not For Distribution Without Prior Written Permission. Adaptation Energy and