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© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
A “Warfighter” Perspective
Dennis K. McBride, Ph.D., CPE
CAPT, MSC, USN (Ret.)
Visiting Professor, Modeling & Simulation
Institute for Simulation & Training
University of Central Florida
XMSF Strategic Opportunities
6 September 2002
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
The Problem
“That’s not my problem.”*
“I didn’t say all those things I said.”+
* Any Navy (DoD, USG) Official+ Yogi Berra
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
The Algorithm
TestDev
TestValid
6.1 6.2
6.3
ScientificArticle
Select
FrontEnd
AnalysisSimulator
Dev
MILSTD1472 MILH
46855
AdequateForce
?
MissionAccomplished
Y
AdequateForce
?
Y
AdequateForce
?
Y
N
Train
N
EquipmentRe-Design
N
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Exemplar: Just in time training
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
The “Warfighter” Redefined for the New Century:
D
I
E
M
Diplomacy
Intelligence
Economics
Military
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
4 MYA 400-500 cc Aferensis
2 MYA 600-700 cc Habilis
1 MYA 900-1100 cc Erectus
100K 1350 cc Modern
Pliocene Pleistocene
Evolutionary Environment of AncestryEvolutionary Environment of Ancestry
Present
3x increase in brain volume, mass3x increase in brain volume, mass
>3x increase in volumetric brain power>3x increase in volumetric brain power
“Folding” provides continued geometric increase in brain power“Folding” provides continued geometric increase in brain power
Brain Growth DataFor Hominidae
Source: McHenry, 1994
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Estimates of Human Processing Capabilities
Process
SensoryNeural CodingCognitiveTo Perm. Store
Flow (Bits/Sec)
1 Billion3 Million
160.7
% Filtered
∞0.003
0.0000050.04
Only 1.6 x 10-9 of data bombarding the operator used in real time!
% Orig. Filtered
----
.0000000016
.0000000014
Source: Steinbuck, 1962
Filtering Algorithms
Neuropsychological Sex DifferencesNeuropsychological Sex Differences
More brain volume
More asymmetry
More white matter
Larger amygdala
Larger inferior parietal lobe
Seasonal fluctuation in testosterone
Greater aggressive behavior
Better spatial skills
Less asymmetry
More gray matter, density
Larger caudate
Larger hippocampus
Larger pallidum
Larger cingulate sulcus
More hormonal cyclicity
Better verbal skills
fMRI mapping is just beginningfMRI mapping is just beginning
Conclusion: We are learning more about differencesConclusion: We are learning more about differencesConclusion: We are learning more about differencesConclusion: We are learning more about differences
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Today’s Function and FormToday’s Function and Form
Respiration…Respiration… Memory, Discrimination, Emotion…
Memory, Discrimination, Emotion…
Associative Reasoning…Associative Reasoning…
Reptilian BrainReptilian Brain Paleomammalian BrainPaleomammalian Brain Neocortical BrainNeocortical Brain
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
The Prefrontal Cortex
Problem solving preparation (Carter, et al.)Dorsolateral prefrontal cortex
Emotion processing (Adolphs, et al.)Right hemisphere prefrontal cortex
Object categorization (Freedman, et al.)Lateral prefrontal cortex
“Theory of the mind”Prefrontal lobes, left amygdala
Executive control – switching (Rubinstein, et al.), simulationPrefrontal cortex, parietal lobes
Mr. Phinneas Gage’s railroad spike
What do engineers use for birth control?Why did the golfer wear two pairs of pants?
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Information & Knowledge
Effects of information and knowledge will be revolutionary. DoD has not fully exploited today's IT. This will happen, but the next wave of IT will be as difficult and expensive to adopt as today's
DoD will get most IT from commercial sector. But, adaptation and special needs must be funded by DoD
Software development and maintenance must improve
Data validation problems must be solved
Need to improve the science of simulation
Must solve DoD’s IT workforce problems
Year 2025
Year 2010
Year 2000
A B C
Year 2025
Year 2010
Year 2000
A B C
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Information & KnowledgeInformation and knowledge systems are vital for:• Information superiority• Coordination of organizations and operations that are
progressively more: FlatFlexibleSmallerWidely dispersedJoint & InteragencyCoalition-oriented
• Precision, long distance fires
Too much data, too little wisdom
Dat
a V
olu
me
Time
Communications& Distribution
Final Processing Display
Storage
In-situ Processing
Sensors
Too much data, too little wisdom
Dat
a V
olu
me
Time
Communications& Distribution
Final Processing Display
Storage
In-situ Processing
Sensors
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Information & Knowledge
Performance to increase, cost to drop (e.g., uncooled IR)
Broader spectrum coverage (e.g., Dog’s Nose)
Individual collectors to huge arrays
In-situ processing – Information, rather than data
Infrared focal plane arrays obsolete much of our IR countermeasure capabilities
Robotics – UAVs, mini- micro-, and eventually nanobots
Thousands of networks replenishing military databases and cross feeding a variety of perspectives
Sensors will improve and proliferate
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Information & Knowledge
New Silicon production techniques Vs new materials
Next generation processors? Anything that counts!• Optical Computing: Electronics will yield to the “Optical Age”• Quantum Computing (e.g., Spintronics) • DNA computing• Parallel Processing: Needs new software concept!
Storage: GMR 1 CD may eventually have the storage capacity of 1,000 CDs, providing all information needed for an entire mission
Hardware and Processing technologies will improve in speed, power, memory, and storage capacity In 15 years
chips will be about 15K more capable than today’s (24 hour task in 1 hour) without breakthroughs
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Information & Knowledge
Problems …
Excessively long delivery times
Failure of large, complex software codes
Information assurance/security
Considerable supply from foreign sources
Challenged by large amounts of information
Creation and maintenance
“If I were to select the most critical R&D need today, it is in software tools and management techniques. Almost every system we develop involves the dominant use of software, and many of the problems we face stem from software issues. This is an area where we need long- range Research and Development efforts to develop new technologies for future systems; and short-range management approaches (often those being applied in commercial industry).” Jacques Gansler’s Opening Statement to the HASC, 3/1/2000.
Software technologies and approaches must change
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
… And solutions:
Better software through OOP???????
AI: High expectations, disappointing results
• Two ways to give machines “common sense”Provide background info
Teach to learn
• Benefits include:Data/information management – “Wisdom from data”
Reduce choices (Choosing your TV programs?)
Tireless, “Human-like” associates
Robotic self-reinvention
Information & Knowledge
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Information & Knowledge
Fiber optics and other technologies will enable BOD to be reached in hard-connected systems
Wireless connections to moving stations to remain a challenge
Improved smart wave-forms will be developed for all operations
Internet. By 2003, Internet use will almost double, will be an even more complex, reliable, and secure system
Communications will be ubiquitous, autonomous, secure, broadband to distribute increasing information
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Chronology of IT x PsychologyChronology of IT x Psychology
Mech. Clocks
(Aristotle)
(Egypt, map)
Pascaline
Liebniz computer
Babbage engine
Ada Lovelaceprogrammer
Boolean logic
Descartes
Locke
Berkely
Hume
Mill
Wundt
Mendel
Galton
Darwin
Explosive growth
-Electrical-Electronics-Computing-Communication
Gestaltism
Behaviorism
Ethology
Evolution
Cognitivism
Artificial Intel.
Neural Nets
Pentium 32-bitWWW ubiquitousPDA ubiquitous1BIPS@300MHZTouch screensVoice interactiveFace recognitionE-commerce Wireless comm
Psychobiology
Learning Theory
$1K=1T/calc/secEmbedded comp.Wireless wiredBiocomputingSpeech recog ubiqIntelligent tutoringReliable transla.Orbital sensing
Sociobiology
$1K=10 brainsComputers ubiqui.3-D displaysSpeech>>manualVirtual presenceVisual auditoryVirtual transactorsOrbital personal
Biology
$1=1 brainSensory implantsDirect neural pathsAgent learning, entrepreneuringAgent>human in- teractionAll-sensor comm.Machines think they are consc.Orbitalpersonal
Bioengineering
1000 1640s – 1840s 1900s 2000 2010 – 2020 2025 20501000 1640s – 1840s 1900s 2000 2010 – 2020 2025 2050
Based on multiple sources including Ray Kurzweil
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Decade of the Brain fMRI
Cognitive Revolution
Moore’s Law
Augmented Cognition
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Objective
1, 2, or 3 Order of Magnitude Improvement in Net Human-1, 2, or 3 Order of Magnitude Improvement in Net Human-Machine Information Capacity: a Symbiotic MarriageMachine Information Capacity: a Symbiotic Marriage
This Will Improve and Enhance the Quality of Military Decision Making
Time
Cap
ab
ilit
y
Human
AugCog: Improved Human Performance
Digital ComputationNetworkingMemory
Biological intelligence is at a relative standstill.
Symbiotic MarriageSymbiotic Marriage
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Computer Power and Networking
Computers will continue to follow Moore’s Law• Speed and memory double every eighteen months (ex:
terraflop, petaflop and computers run on light)• Bandwidth has increased speed and sending capacity
for all users Programming has completely changed in the last 15 years and will continue to changeNeural networking, based on brain, function may increase capacity of computersKnowledge and information may become so abundant it will impede our ability to learn
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Trainability
Income gaps follow knowledge gapsAmericans as a whole are well-educated but many are still unprepared for workTechnology has not been able to bridge the education gap in K-12Learning in the future will be reorganized to meet the needs of the ever-changing worker
Predictors of success in work and school:
• Socio-economic status
• Graduation rates fall along racial lines
• IQ testing, regardless of education level
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Trainability
Digital technology will revolutionize the practice of teaching and training
There is a good possibility learning will drive technology• More is spent on learning than on the movie
industry each year in the U.S.
Three Major types of training:• Organizational
• Learner-driven
• Technology-mediated
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Trends in Organizational Learning
Reduce gap in product-service timeNeed for globalizationAbility to extend instructor impact onlineBusiness and education units should work togetherMinimize non-instructional cost (technology should reduce cost)Desire for different types of learningNeed performance support in trainingChoices in pricing, assessment and class selection
© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Trends in Learner-Driven and Technology-Mediated Learning
Learner-Driven
• Workers have good tools for learning at home-put them to use
• Learning independent of time and place
• Multi-modal, multi-lingual individualized training
• “Learnbots” will help decide what to learn and how to learn
• Need for “coaching” rather than “sage on the stage” teaching
Technology-Mediated• Open-architecture,
adaptable devices and authoring tools
• Standard and speedy bandwidth
• Virtual libraries• New pedagogy• More accessible tutors• Substantive content