© 2001 The MITRE Corporation

Document Number Here

Traffic Flow Management Impact Assessment Research

TFM Technical Interchange Meeting

31 October 2001

Craig Wanke

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation2

31 Oct 2001

Traffic Flow Management (TFM):Why Impact Assessment Decision Support?

• Today, FAA facilities and airlines plan flow management actions with limited collaboration and little or no way to predict effects of actions such as:– Ground delay programs, ground stops– Severe weather reroutes– “Miles-in-trail” boundary crossing restrictions

• Few decision support tools available to evaluate impact!• Result: localized, highly conservative solutions to

problems affecting wide areas of the US airspace– Excessive constraints on airports and airspace– Unintended consequences of multiple restrictions

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation3

31 Oct 2001

CAASD Research

• Integrated miles-in-trail (MIT) and rerouting evaluation capability– Analyzes one or several proposed MITs in conjunction with

manual or National Playbook reroutes

• NAS-wide TFM impact assessment analysis– Couples demand estimation with large scale queuing model to

obtain NAS throughput and delays

• Several types of applications:– Real-time decision-support– TFM post-event analysis– Analysis of changes in the NAS

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation4

31 Oct 2001

MIT Evaluation Interface

80:44:77

20

Number of Miles in Trail

Average Delay in minutes

Maximum Delay in minutes

Number of aircraft involved

MIT delay (hh:mm:ss)

MIT delay + Reroute delay

(hh:mm:ss)

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation5

31 Oct 2001

Example: Weather in Northeast U.S.WEST_VUZ Play Being Evaluated

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation6

31 Oct 2001

Impacted Arrivals: ZNY, ZBW, ZDC

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation7

31 Oct 2001

Modeling Miles-In-Trail Impact - DelaysZME-ZTL Boundary, Passbacks to ZKC, ZFW

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation8

31 Oct 2001

ZTL Sector Loads, No Actions

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation9

31 Oct 2001

ZTL Sector Loads, WEST_VUZ applied:

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation10

31 Oct 2001

ZTL Sector Loads, Reroute + MITs

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation11

31 Oct 2001

Modeling MIT Restrictions for TFM DSS

• Model MIT impact for predicting:– Sector counts, upstream and downstream of the restrictions– Delays for spacing aircraft to the modeled restrictions

• Not necessary to model ATC actions precisely– Actions can include vectoring, holding, speed instructions

• Modeling approach– assume ground delay for flights departing near the restriction– active flights and inactives departing far from the restriction:

slow flight progress starting near the restriction

• Preliminary research indicates this is a good model– vectoring activities rarely take aircraft into new sectors– spacing maneuvers start approximately two sectors upstream

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation12

31 Oct 2001

Modeling MIT Restrictions for TFM DSS

23:10:14

20

KBBB

KAAA

Range Limit forAirborne Delays

Range Limit forGround Delays

ABC

Top of Descent

This Flight:Ground Delay

= Airborne Delay

These Flights:Airborne Delays

= Ground Delay

20 MIT Restriction

= Navigation Aid

= Airport

Key:

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation13

31 Oct 2001

ORD

ZAUOKK

ZID

ZTLZME

Hour of Boundary Crossing = 1300 - 1359Z

x (NMI)

y (N

MI)

No Delay Vectoring

ORD Arrival Flow from ZID via OKK4/2/2001

Different Colors = Different Tracks

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation14

31 Oct 2001

In-T

rail

Sp

acin

g a

t B

ou

nd

ary

(N

MI)

ORD Arrival Flow from ZID via OKK 4/2/2001: Observed Spacing During MITs

Pairwise Spacing at Boundary (NMI)

Posted MIT (NMI)

1200 -1259 Delay Vectoring Observed

1300-1359 Lack of Delay Vectoring

Time of Flight Crossing Boundary

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation15

31 Oct 2001

Delay Vectoring Example

ORD

ZAUOKK

ZID

ZTLZME

Delay Vectoring:Begins 150 nmi Upstream of MIT

Hour of Boundary Crossing = 1200 - 1259Z

x (NMI)

y (N

MI)

Different Colors = Different Tracks

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation16

31 Oct 2001

MIT + Rerouting Evaluation Capability:Plans

• Continue to obtain field feedback– Initial responses were enthusiastic. TMCs see great potential for

using this capability to reduce usage of MIT restrictions– What are the basic assumptions, metrics, procedures, etc. for

collaborating on enroute flow restrictions such as MITs?• CAASD has defined a strawman operational concept to facilitate

discussion

• Provide to CAASD Spring 2002 staff at ATCSCC for use in replay mode (post-event analysis)

• Continue to study technical issues– Model validation– Modeling in-place restrictions (static and dynamic)– Implementation on the TFM-I (ETMS, CCSD, …)– Include additional traffic management initiatives? (GDPs, etc.)

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation17

31 Oct 2001

NAS-Wide TFM Impact Assessment

CORBA-BasedData, Comm, Control

Services

RDBMS

DPATCRCT

Delay and Throughput VisualizationScenario and Simulation Management

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation18

31 Oct 2001

NAS-Wide TFM Impact Assessment

CORBA-BasedData, Comm, Control

Services

RDBMS

DPATCRCT

Delay and Throughput VisualizationScenario and Simulation ManagementSpecify Strategies: Rerouting, Dynamic Miles-in-Trail

Provide Detailed Demand Data for DPAT:Individual, up-to-minute flight plans for NASDetailed trajectories, including LOA/SOP effectsTrial plans for strategy evaluations

Real-time and Playback Modes Available

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation19

31 Oct 2001

NAS-Wide TFM Impact Assessment

CORBA-BasedData, Comm, Control

Services

RDBMS

DPATCRCT

Delay and Throughput VisualizationScenario and Simulation Management

Define Scenario:Reroute Sets, MIT Sets, Resource Capacities, Schedule Changes

Simulation Control:Run DPAT with baseline or scenarioChoose results for comparative displayCan run several DPAT instances at once

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation20

31 Oct 2001

NAS-Wide TFM Impact Assessment

CORBA-BasedData, Comm, Control

Services

RDBMS

DPATCRCT

Delay and Throughput VisualizationScenario and Simulation Management

DPAT for TFM IA:Individual flight plans (not city-pair)TAF WX parser for airport capacityAirframe itinerariesDBMS management of results

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation21

31 Oct 2001

NAS-Wide TFM Impact Assessment

CORBA-BasedData, Comm, Control

Services

RDBMS

DPATCRCT

Delay and Throughput VisualizationScenario and Simulation Management

Visualize Results:NAS Pacer Airport Delays Delay and Throughput Charts by Airport

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation22

31 Oct 2001

Example: Delay Impact on Pacer Airports

Green: <15 min avg delayYellow: 15-30 min avg delayRed: >30 min avg delay

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation23

31 Oct 2001

Impact at Airports:Average Arrival Delay at JFK

Baseline

Reroutes & MIT Applied

Hou

rly A

vera

ge D

elay

(m

in)

© 2001 The MITRE Corporation24

31 Oct 2001

NAS-Wide TFM Impact Assessment:Plans

• NAS-wide system simulation is envisioned as a widely-available capability with “scenario sharing”– Users of many types could develop scenarios, share them,

modify them, discuss the results

• However, this is a very early concept!– operational applications and collaboration issues are not well

understood– NAS-wide simulation models are not fully mature– not clear how it fits within TFM-I

• FY02: focus on improving simulation models