© 2000 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED WSCG 2000, Plzen, Czech Republic — 1 Computer Graphics in the 21st Century:

© 2000 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

WSCG 2000, Plzen, Czech Republic — 1

www.cyberedge.com

Computer Graphics in the 21st Century:

The Virtualization of Everything

Presented byPresented by

Ben DelaneyBen DelaneyPresident,President,

CyberEdge CyberEdge Information Services, Information Services, Inc.Inc.Sausalito — New YorkSausalito — New York

www.cyberedge.comwww.cyberedge.com

WSCG 2000, Plzen, Czech Republic



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• Spending hours in the labSpending hours in the lab

• Our contributions are usually made in the Our contributions are usually made in the background, unacknowledgedbackground, unacknowledged

• Despite making incredibly important Despite making incredibly important discoveriesdiscoveries

Computer Graphics Scientists Computer Graphics Scientists get no respectget no respect



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You may not realize that the CG You may not realize that the CG community has changed the community has changed the

world world

Providing one of the most Providing one of the most important concepts of the 21st important concepts of the 21st

century!century!



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VIRTUALVIRTUAL

Ananova, the world's first virtual newscaster



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Virtually Everything Virtually Everything is Virtual Todayis Virtual Today

•RealityReality • • CorporationsCorporations

•FriendsFriends •• Shopping Shopping

•DoctorsDoctors •• Sex Sex

•PetsPets •• MeetingsMeetings

•PrototypesPrototypes •• OrgansOrgans

•PoliticiansPoliticians •• MoneyMoney

•PlacesPlaces •• TravelTravel



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The value of “Virtual” is already The value of “Virtual” is already hugehuge

• Year 2000 value of Year 2000 value of Visual Simulation and Visual Simulation and VR more than VR more than USUS$20 $20 billionbillion

• More than 9,000 More than 9,000 people involved people involved worldwide worldwide (1998)(1998)

• >35% annual growth >35% annual growth raterate

Published June 1999, CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.



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Why is this trend important?Why is this trend important?

Where is it going?Where is it going?

How will it affect us?How will it affect us?

What does it matter?What does it matter?Those are the topics of this talkThose are the topics of this talk



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A Brief History of VirtualA Brief History of Virtual

•1941: Link Flight 1941: Link Flight SimulatorSimulator

•1965: Sutherland’s 1965: Sutherland’s Virtual WindowVirtual Window



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Some Virtual MilestonesSome Virtual Milestones

•1988: SIMNET links 1988: SIMNET links 280 workstations280 workstations

•1989: VPL Research 1989: VPL Research FoundedFounded

•1991: Virtuality Game 1991: Virtuality Game SystemSystem



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More Virtual Milestones More Virtual Milestones

•1996: Visible 1996: Visible Human (male) Human (male) CompletedCompleted

• 1999: SONY 1999: SONY releases releases AIBO, sells AIBO, sells out all stockout all stock



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And More Virtual Milestones And More Virtual Milestones

•1999: Honda 1999: Honda announces announces anthropomorphic anthropomorphic robotrobot

•1999: 400 People 1999: 400 People attend Avatars99attend Avatars99



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What does the future have in What does the future have in store?store?



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3 key technologies will reach 3 key technologies will reach “Event Horizons” circa 2035“Event Horizons” circa 2035

Computers/CommunicationComputers/Communication

Biotechnology/MedicineBiotechnology/Medicine

NanotechnologyNanotechnology



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Computing/CommunicationComputing/Communication

Moore’s Law Moore’s Law continues to continues to hold true – hold true – chip densities chip densities double every double every 18 months18 months

0.0E+00

5.0E+14

1.0E+15

1.5E+15

2.0E+15

2.5E+15

3.0E+15

Transistor Count in MicroprocessorsIn Billions

2.5 20 Million 1.28 Brillion 1 Trillion

Brain/ChipEquivalance

2045

Human Brain1.5 Quadrillion



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By 2045 chips as complex as the By 2045 chips as complex as the human mind are dirt cheaphuman mind are dirt cheap

• Complexity Complexity brings brings increased speed increased speed and power, and power, reduced energy reduced energy consumption consumption and costand cost

Chip Complexity Vs. Chip Cost

Complexity

Complexity

CostCost



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Computers become smaller as Computers become smaller as they become more powerfulthey become more powerful

Today’s desk-side box will Today’s desk-side box will fit in your pocket, and fit in your pocket, and that PDA-like system will that PDA-like system will have super-computer have super-computer capabilities.capabilities.



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More computers + more power = More computers + more power = more powerful communicationsmore powerful communications

• Increasing calculation powerIncreasing calculation power

•Wide and local-area networks Wide and local-area networks connecting everybody and everythingconnecting everybody and everything

•Most people use their computers as Most people use their computers as communication devices, listening to communication devices, listening to music, corresponding via email, music, corresponding via email, shopping on the Internet, getting the shopping on the Internet, getting the newsnews

Image courtesy: [email protected], gelon.net © 2000 - Oslo, Norway



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Ubiquitous computing Ubiquitous computing

• The power of embedded computers, where The power of embedded computers, where the majority of processors are used, will the majority of processors are used, will continue to increase geometricallycontinue to increase geometrically

• More communication will take place More communication will take place between computers than between peoplebetween computers than between people



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We will soon live within an all-We will soon live within an all-seeing, all-hearing networkseeing, all-hearing network

•Enveloping all but the most remote Enveloping all but the most remote

parts of the planet.parts of the planet.

•Kitchen appliances, prosthetic Kitchen appliances, prosthetic

devices, dishes, cars, books, toys, devices, dishes, cars, books, toys,

clothes – virtually every object clothes – virtually every object

with which we interact – will with which we interact – will

contain embedded intelligence, contain embedded intelligence,

and communication abilities. and communication abilities. Thalia home appliances by Sunbeam - Summer

2000



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Simple chips, widely connected, Simple chips, widely connected, creating highly complex systemscreating highly complex systems



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The Uber-net of artificial The Uber-net of artificial intelligences will create a global intelligences will create a global

“mind”“mind”

• By around 2030, computers may become By around 2030, computers may become conscious, self aware, and aware of us. conscious, self aware, and aware of us.

• When that happens, the relationship When that happens, the relationship between human being, and their between human being, and their inorganic progeny will change forever.inorganic progeny will change forever.



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BiotechnologyBiotechnology

•Parallel to the advances in computing Parallel to the advances in computing will be huge strides in the will be huge strides in the understanding of organic systemsunderstanding of organic systems

•As we decipher the human and other As we decipher the human and other genomes we will develop insights into genomes we will develop insights into how life itself workshow life itself works



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The obvious goal of biotech and The obvious goal of biotech and medical research – eliminating medical research – eliminating

deathdeath

•The question is: how do we The question is: how do we

accomplish that goal?accomplish that goal?

•We will unlock the secrets of We will unlock the secrets of

aging, cancer development, aging, cancer development,

regeneration, cloning, genetic regeneration, cloning, genetic

manipulation, immunity, learning, manipulation, immunity, learning,

and much moreand much more



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Manipulation of basic organic Manipulation of basic organic functionsfunctions

• Repair and replacement of genesRepair and replacement of genes

• Artificial enzymes and hormonesArtificial enzymes and hormones

• Stimulation and retardation of Stimulation and retardation of growthgrowth

• ““Designer” childrenDesigner” children

• Cloning of animals Cloning of animals andand people people

• Creation of imaginary creaturesCreation of imaginary creatures



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The human lifespan will grow The human lifespan will grow substantially longersubstantially longer

• We will conquer diseases, manipulate We will conquer diseases, manipulate genes, rebuild damaged immune genes, rebuild damaged immune systems, and re-generate organs and systems, and re-generate organs and limbslimbs

• Doubled in the 20th century, the human Doubled in the 20th century, the human lifespan will quickly reach 100 years, lifespan will quickly reach 100 years, then morethen more

• The concept of “natural death” will The concept of “natural death” will become quaint and archaicbecome quaint and archaic



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Interfaces between silicon and Interfaces between silicon and carbon-based systems will soon carbon-based systems will soon

be commonbe common

•These systems will first be used for:These systems will first be used for:– Control of muscles or other organsControl of muscles or other organs– Connecting prosthetic limbs to the nervous Connecting prosthetic limbs to the nervous

systemsystem– Restoring sight and hearingRestoring sight and hearing– Monitoring and reporting on biological activityMonitoring and reporting on biological activity



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The integration of mechanical The integration of mechanical and biological systems will and biological systems will

accelerateaccelerate

We have seen recently We have seen recently demonstrations of artificial eyesdemonstrations of artificial eyes

Images courtesy Dobelle Institute



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NanotechnologyNanotechnologyNanotechnology is the science and Nanotechnology is the science and

industry of building extremely industry of building extremely small machinessmall machines

" Ultimately - in the great future - we can arrange the atoms the way we want; the very atoms, all the way down! What would happen if we could arrange the atoms one by one the way we want them."

Richard P. Feynman, 1959



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Devices the size of moleculesDevices the size of molecules

•Still in the laboratory-Still in the laboratory-demonstration phase of demonstration phase of developmentdevelopment

•Today they are painstakingly Today they are painstakingly constructed atom by atomconstructed atom by atom

•So far, nanomachines have So far, nanomachines have not done any useful work. not done any useful work.

Courtesy IMM and Xerox



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Nanomachines will be capable of Nanomachines will be capable of doing amazing jobsdoing amazing jobs

• Ideas for how to apply Ideas for how to apply nanotechnology are far-ranging, and nanotechnology are far-ranging, and many will prove to be dead endsmany will prove to be dead ends

•All require deployment of billions (at All require deployment of billions (at least) of individual unitsleast) of individual units



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Materials made of Materials made of nanomachines will have startling nanomachines will have startling

characteristicscharacteristics

•A few trillion nanomachines might be A few trillion nanomachines might be programmed to form an entire buildingprogrammed to form an entire building– Such a building could be extremely strongSuch a building could be extremely strong

• The components could be flexible in an earthquake, The components could be flexible in an earthquake, or streamlined in high winds or streamlined in high winds

– Windows and walls could be moved at willWindows and walls could be moved at will– The same machines could make the furniture The same machines could make the furniture

and appliancesand appliances



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Building with nanomachinesBuilding with nanomachines

• The nano-architect would:The nano-architect would:– draw up a designdraw up a design– order a number of kilograms of nano-order a number of kilograms of nano-

machines to be machines to be – delivered at the building site, the delivered at the building site, the

preprogrammed nanomachines create the preprogrammed nanomachines create the buildingbuilding

• The building would seem to grow, like a The building would seem to grow, like a plant, and infinite variations would be plant, and infinite variations would be possible with almost no additional cost.possible with almost no additional cost.



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NASA is investigating NASA is investigating nanotechnology as a tool to be nanotechnology as a tool to be

used in space explorationused in space exploration

1:1: Sending a few kilos of self-replicating, Sending a few kilos of self-replicating,

general purpose nanomachines to the general purpose nanomachines to the

moonmoon

2:2: They build more of themselvesThey build more of themselves

3:3: Mine materials and construct a lunar Mine materials and construct a lunar

basebase

4:4: Which humans to occupy when completed. Which humans to occupy when completed.



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Medicine also may benefit from Medicine also may benefit from nanotechnologynanotechnology

• Miniature tools may be programmed to do Miniature tools may be programmed to do micro surgery from the inside out micro surgery from the inside out

• Angioplasty is one procedure that may be Angioplasty is one procedure that may be an appropriate applicationan appropriate application– Doctors may inject a few thousand nanomachinesDoctors may inject a few thousand nanomachines– Automatic search for arterial restrictionsAutomatic search for arterial restrictions– Remove the plaque, perhaps converting it to a Remove the plaque, perhaps converting it to a

harmless or even beneficial substanceharmless or even beneficial substance



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Just like the Just like the Fantastic VoyageFantastic Voyage

(but without the tiny crew)(but without the tiny crew)



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All roads lead to…All roads lead to…

Fusion



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Fusion occurs around 2035-2050Fusion occurs around 2035-2050

•Computer systems vastly more Computer systems vastly more powerful than individual human powerful than individual human minds, ubiquitous, and minds, ubiquitous, and completely interconnectedcompletely interconnected

•Most work done by robotsMost work done by robots

•Most human activities will be Most human activities will be computer mediated. computer mediated.



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Everything will have a virtual Everything will have a virtual componentcomponent

•Virtual travelVirtual travel

•Virtual companionsVirtual companions

•Virtual amusement parksVirtual amusement parks

•Ubiquitous computingUbiquitous computing

•Unlimited communications Unlimited communications

Virtual-ness will shape the worldVirtual-ness will shape the world

www.ananova.com



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Machines capable of performing Machines capable of performing nearly any task that people do now nearly any task that people do now

will take over most “work”will take over most “work”This will create massive social disruptionThis will create massive social disruption



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Technology will spawn difficult Technology will spawn difficult social questions social questions

•What do people do when they have no What do people do when they have no jobs? jobs?

•What will people think about when What will people think about when machines think faster, and can make machines think faster, and can make more connections?more connections?

•How do you pass the time when you How do you pass the time when you might live forever?might live forever?



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What unique quality of being What unique quality of being human distinguishes us from the human distinguishes us from the

machines we create?machines we create?

•Creativity?Creativity?

•Humor?Humor?

•Hatred?Hatred?

• Love?Love?

•Curiosity?Curiosity?

• ??????



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The lines demarcating human The lines demarcating human and machine will become fuzzyand machine will become fuzzy

•People will be part computer People will be part computer

•Computers, using organic materials to Computers, using organic materials to become even faster, and more animal-become even faster, and more animal-like, will be nearly humanlike, will be nearly human

•We will have the ability to add We will have the ability to add capabilities to human beings, who are capabilities to human beings, who are nearly immortal nearly immortal

•Devices and materials that would Devices and materials that would seem magical today, will be common seem magical today, will be common



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Implanted systems with external Implanted systems with external connections will:connections will:

•Simulate any sensory perceptionSimulate any sensory perception

•Accept information in real time from Accept information in real time from massive data banksmassive data banks

•Eliminate phones, monitors, Eliminate phones, monitors, keyboards, mice, and speakerskeyboards, mice, and speakers

•Provide abilities akin to telepathyProvide abilities akin to telepathy

We will be one with our computersWe will be one with our computers



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What if machines see people as What if machines see people as threatening?threatening?

•People are irrational and People are irrational and unpredictableunpredictable

•Rationally, the machines Rationally, the machines may find ways to limit their may find ways to limit their exposure exposure

How will we keep up?How will we keep up?



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The solution may be to take The solution may be to take evolution in handevolution in hand

•We will have the skills and We will have the skills and knowledge to actually direct our knowledge to actually direct our evolutionevolution

•Blending biological and Blending biological and mechanical componentsmechanical components

•Manipulating genesManipulating genes

•Augmenting our human abilities. Augmenting our human abilities.



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By the end of the 21st century By the end of the 21st century we will have redefined we will have redefined

“being human”“being human”

• TelepathicTelepathic

• Super-human intelligenceSuper-human intelligence

• Flawless memoryFlawless memory

• Seldom ill and able to recover Seldom ill and able to recover from nearly any injuryfrom nearly any injury

• Never agingNever aging

• Closely linked in a solar Closely linked in a solar system-wide networksystem-wide network



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We will go beyond Darwin, towards We will go beyond Darwin, towards the destination of the speciesthe destination of the species

•A human/machine, carbo/silico, A human/machine, carbo/silico, organic/inorganic hybridorganic/inorganic hybrid

•Actively planning and creating its own futureActively planning and creating its own future

•Making Darwinian evolution historyMaking Darwinian evolution history

University of Toronto

Photoborgs, Sept. 1999



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?What does all of this have to do What does all of this have to do

with you, a CG specialist?with you, a CG specialist?

Quite a bitQuite a bit



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Computer Graphics Computer Graphics inspire and enableinspire and enable

•Remember that important concept, Remember that important concept, VirtualVirtual??

•All sciences rely on CG to All sciences rely on CG to understand and communicateunderstand and communicate

•Advances in CG facilitate other Advances in CG facilitate other sciences’ advancementsciences’ advancement



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KnowledgeKnowledge

For years, science has been For years, science has been struggling to understand the struggling to understand the

worldworld



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Computer Graphics has Computer Graphics has unlocked the doorunlocked the door



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CG is a key to understanding CG is a key to understanding and controlling the science of and controlling the science of

the 21the 21stst century century

Your work will change the Your work will change the world ...forever.world ...forever.

Are you ready to help Are you ready to help shape human destiny?shape human destiny?



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Thank YouThank You

I welcome your questions and commentsI welcome your questions and comments

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[email protected]@cyberedge.com

+1 415 331-3343+1 415 331-3343

Thanks to Vaclav Skala, University of West Thanks to Vaclav Skala, University of West BohemiaBohemia

Documents

© 2000 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED WSCG 2000, Plzen, Czech Republic — 1 Computer Graphics in the 21st Century: