24
RISK FACTORS The effects of waterpipe tobacco smoking on health outcomes: a systematic review Elie A Akl, 1,2 Swarna Gaddam, 2 Sameer K Gunukula, 2 Roland Honeine, 1 Philippe Abou Jaoude 1 and Jihad Irani 3 1 Department of Medicine, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA, 2 Department of Family Medicine, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA and 3 Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Balamand, Beirut, Lebanon Corresponding author. Department of Medicine, State University of New York at Buffalo, ECMC-CC 142, 462 Grider Street, Buffalo, NY 14215, USA. E-mail: [email protected] Accepted 5 January 2010 Background There is a need for a comprehensive and critical review of the literature to inform scientific debates about the public health effects of waterpipe smoking. The objective of this study was therefore to systematically review the medical literature for the effects of waterpipe tobacco smoking on health outcomes. Methods We conducted a systematic review using the Cochrane Collabora- tion methodology for conducting systematic reviews. We rated the quality of evidence for each outcome using the Grading of Recom- mendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology. Results Twenty-four studies were eligible for this review. Based on the available evidence, waterpipe tobacco smoking was significantly associated with lung cancer [odds ratio (OR) ¼ 2.12; 95% confi- dence interval (CI) 1.32–3.42], respiratory illness (OR ¼ 2.3; 95% CI 1.1–5.1), low birth-weight (OR ¼ 2.12; 95% CI 1.08–4.18) and periodontal disease (OR ¼ 3–5). It was not significantly associated with bladder cancer (OR ¼ 0.8; 95% CI 0.2–4.0), nasopharyngeal cancer (OR ¼ 0.49; 95% CI 0.20–1.23), oesophageal cancer (OR ¼ 1.85; 95% CI 0.95–3.58), oral dysplasia (OR ¼ 8.33; 95% CI 0.78–9.47) or infertility (OR ¼ 2.5; 95% CI 1.0–6.3) but the CIs did not exclude important associations. Smoking waterpipe in groups was not significantly associated with hepatitis C infection (OR ¼ 0.98; 95% CI 0.80–1.21). The quality of evidence for the different outcomes varied from very low to low. Conclusion Waterpipe tobacco smoking is possibly associated with a number of deleterious health outcomes. There is a need for high-quality studies to identify and quantify with confidence all the health effects of this form of smoking. Keywords Oesophageal neoplasms, infant, low birth-weight, lung neoplasms, hepatitis C, tobacco, waterpipe Background Tobacco smoking using waterpipe—also known as arguileh, hookah and shisha—is an older form of tobacco consumption traditional of the eastern Mediterranean region (Figure 1). 1 The waterpipe device indirectly heats the tobacco. The resulting Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association ß The Author 2010; all rights reserved. Advance Access publication 4 March 2010 International Journal of Epidemiology 2010;39:834–857 doi:10.1093/ije/dyq002 834 by guest on October 14, 2011 ije.oxfordjournals.org Downloaded from

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RISK FACTORS

The effects of waterpipe tobacco smoking onhealth outcomes: a systematic reviewElie A Akl,1,2� Swarna Gaddam,2 Sameer K Gunukula,2 Roland Honeine,1

Philippe Abou Jaoude1 and Jihad Irani3

1Department of Medicine, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA, 2Department of Family Medicine, StateUniversity of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA and 3Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Balamand, Beirut, Lebanon

�Corresponding author. Department of Medicine, State University of New York at Buffalo, ECMC-CC 142, 462 Grider Street,Buffalo, NY 14215, USA. E-mail: [email protected]

Accepted 5 January 2010

Background There is a need for a comprehensive and critical review of theliterature to inform scientific debates about the public healtheffects of waterpipe smoking. The objective of this study wastherefore to systematically review the medical literature for theeffects of waterpipe tobacco smoking on health outcomes.

Methods We conducted a systematic review using the Cochrane Collabora-tion methodology for conducting systematic reviews. We rated thequality of evidence for each outcome using the Grading of Recom-mendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE)methodology.

Results Twenty-four studies were eligible for this review. Based on theavailable evidence, waterpipe tobacco smoking was significantlyassociated with lung cancer [odds ratio (OR)¼ 2.12; 95% confi-dence interval (CI) 1.32–3.42], respiratory illness (OR¼ 2.3; 95%CI 1.1–5.1), low birth-weight (OR¼ 2.12; 95% CI 1.08–4.18) andperiodontal disease (OR¼ 3–5). It was not significantly associatedwith bladder cancer (OR¼ 0.8; 95% CI 0.2–4.0), nasopharyngealcancer (OR¼ 0.49; 95% CI 0.20–1.23), oesophageal cancer(OR¼ 1.85; 95% CI 0.95–3.58), oral dysplasia (OR¼ 8.33; 95% CI0.78–9.47) or infertility (OR¼ 2.5; 95% CI 1.0–6.3) but the CIs didnot exclude important associations. Smoking waterpipe in groupswas not significantly associated with hepatitis C infection(OR¼ 0.98; 95% CI 0.80–1.21). The quality of evidence for thedifferent outcomes varied from very low to low.

Conclusion Waterpipe tobacco smoking is possibly associated with a numberof deleterious health outcomes. There is a need for high-qualitystudies to identify and quantify with confidence all the healtheffects of this form of smoking.

Keywords Oesophageal neoplasms, infant, low birth-weight, lung neoplasms,hepatitis C, tobacco, waterpipe

BackgroundTobacco smoking using waterpipe—also known asarguileh, hookah and shisha—is an older form of

tobacco consumption traditional of the easternMediterranean region (Figure 1).1 The waterpipedevice indirectly heats the tobacco. The resulting

Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

� The Author 2010; all rights reserved. Advance Access publication 4 March 2010

International Journal of Epidemiology 2010;39:834–857

doi:10.1093/ije/dyq002

834

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smoke then passes through a column of water beforebeing inhaled through the mouth using a pipe.2 Thesetwo unique features of this form of smoking areassumed to minimize its tobacco-related health haz-ards. Also, waterpipe tobacco smoke is produced at amuch lower temperature than cigarette smoke, sug-gesting that the toxins may be different for these dif-ferent forms of tobacco smoking.3 Another uniquefeature is the social nature of waterpipe smoking,whereby family members and friends may share thesame device, which has been hypothesized to causethe transmission of communicable diseases.

Waterpipe tobacco smoking has been spreadingglobally at a remarkable pace.4 Although its use inthe eastern Mediterranean region has been, untilrecently, confined to adults, it is now gaining popu-larity among university students5,6 and teenagers.7–9

Waterpipe smoking is also spreading to Westerncountries such as Australia,10 the UK,11 Canada12

and the USA,13 where it is also affecting youngpeople and adolescents.14,15

Waterpipe tobacco smoking is generally consideredas a public health threat and the American LungAssociation has recently called it the ‘emergingdeadly trend’.2 In fact, waterpipe smoking has beensuspected to be a risk factor for a number oftobacco-related diseases such as lung cancer,16 oeso-phageal cancers,17 cardiovascular disease18 and

adverse pregnancy outcomes.19 In addition, the water-pipe device may expose its user (via its non-tobaccocomponents) to metals and cancer-causing chemi-cals.20,21 The potential association of waterpipe smok-ing with communicable diseases such as hepatitis C22

and tuberculosis23 (via its shared and repetitive usewithout proper sanitation) has also been investigated.

While one article reviewed the effects of waterpipesmoking on health outcomes,24 we have identified nopublished systematic review or meta-analysis of thetopic. The objective of this study was therefore to sys-tematically review the medical literature for theeffects of waterpipe tobacco smoking on healthoutcomes.

MethodsEligibility criteriaWe included observational studies (i.e. cohort studies,case–control studies and cross-sectional studies)assessing the association between waterpipe tobaccosmoking and health outcomes. We excluded casereports, case series, outbreak investigations andabstracts. We also excluded studies assessing physio-logical outcomes [e.g. Forced Expiratory Volume in 1Second (FEV1)], assessing waterpipe use fornon-tobacco smoking purposes (e.g. marijuana smok-ing), not distinguishing waterpipe smoking fromother forms of smoking, and not reporting any mea-sure of association.

Search strategyIn June 2008, we electronically searched the followingdatabases: MEDLINE (1950 onwards; access viaOVID), EMBASE (1980 onwards; access via OVID)and ISI the Web of Science using a detailed searchstrategy with no language restrictions (Appendix 1).We designed the strategy based on a preliminaryreview of relevant articles, an extensive Internetsearch for waterpipe synonyms and the search strat-egy of a systematic review on interventions for water-pipe smoking cessation.25 Two medical librariansreviewed and commented on the search strategy. Wealso reviewed the reference lists of included and rel-evant papers and used the ‘Related Articles’ feature inPubMed.

Selection processTwo reviewers independently screened the title andabstract of identified citations for potential eligibilityusing a standardized screening guide. We retrievedthe full texts of citations judged potentially eligibleby at least one reviewer. Then, two reviewers indepen-dently screened the full texts for eligibility using astandardized and pilot-tested form. They resolvedtheir disagreements by discussion or by consulting athird reviewer.

Figure 1 Annotated figure of a waterpipe device

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Data abstractionTwo reviewers used a standardized and pilot-testedform to independently abstract data. They resolvedtheir disagreements by discussion or by consultinga third reviewer. The abstracted data related tostudy design, population, exposure, outcomes, meth-odological features, results and funding. For exposuremeasurement, we assessed whether the instrumentwas standardized to measure the unique smoking pat-terns and characteristics of waterpipe smoking. Werecorded the results of analyses restricted to waterpipeonly smokers (i.e. people who smoked only water-pipe) as well as the results of analyses that includedall waterpipe smokers (i.e. people who smoked water-pipe and other forms of tobacco). We recorded theeffect measures derived from the regression modelsthat adjusted for the maximum number of covariates.We rated the overall quality of evidence for each out-come using the Grading of RecommendationsAssessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE)approach (Appendix 2).26

Data analysisWe calculated the kappa statistic to evaluate theagreement between the two reviewers assessing full

texts for eligibility. We conducted meta-analyses forthe outcomes for which at least two studies reportedeffect estimates of their association with waterpipetobacco smoking. When the authors reportedodds ratios (ORs) for more than one analysis weselected the OR according to the following order:(i) analysis adjusted for other forms of tobaccosmoking (choosing the one adjusting for the maxi-mum number of confounders); (ii) analysisrestricted to waterpipe only smokers; (iii) analysisnot adjusted for other forms of tobacco smokingand not restricted to waterpipe only smokers.We used the ORs to calculate the correspondingln(ORs) and standard errors. We then pooled, foreach outcome, the ln(ORs) of eligible studies usingthe generic inverse variance and the random effectsmodel in Review Manager Version 5.0.20. Wemeasured homogeneity across study results usingthe I2 statistic.27 We checked for possible publicationbias using inverted funnel plots.

ResultsFigure 2 shows the study flow. We included 23reports on: lung cancer (n¼ 6),16,28–32 bladder cancer

1658 citations identified

1570 citations screened for retrieval 25 papers excluded: • report of already reported data (4) • case reports or case series (4) • review of the literature (1) • inappropriate study design (3) • no distinction from other forms of smoking (4) • no outcome of interest reported (5)

• no measure of association reported (2)

• abstract (1)

• about long stem pipes, not waterpipes (1)

44 potentially eligible papers retrieved

23 reports included in systematic review

88 duplicate citations

10 studies (11 analyses) included in meta-analyses

2 papers published after search date and identified 2 papers identified through checking of citations list

Figure 2 Study flow diagram

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(n¼ 1),33 oesophageal cancers (n¼ 1),17 nasopharyn-geal cancer (n¼ 1),34 dysplasia of the oral mucosa(n¼ 1),35 pregnancy outcomes (n¼ 3),19,36,37 peri-odontal disease (n¼ 5),38–42 hepatitis C infection(n¼ 3),22,43,44 respiratory illness (n¼ 1)45 and infertil-ity (n¼ 1).46 Agreement between reviewers for studyeligibility was excellent (kappa¼ 0.963).

Lung cancerFive of the six included studies were case–controlstudies assessing lung cancer diagnosis,16,28–31 andone was a retrospective cohort study assessing lungcancer mortality (Table 1).32 One was conducted inNorthern India,28 one was conducted in Tunisia,31

whereas rule four reported data from the same pop-ulation in China. While in the recent global epidemicthe tobacco is processed and flavoured and indirectlyheated by the charcoal, in most of the included stu-dies (conducted in China and India) the tobacco istypically unprocessed and burned directly by charcoal.

The pooled OR for the association of waterpipetobacco smoking with lung cancer diagnosis was2.12 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32–3.42;I2¼ 0%] (Figure 3). We judged the overall quality of

evidence to be very low (Appendix 3). The calculatedcrude relative risk (RR) for the association with lungcancer mortality was 4.39 (3.82–5.04). We judged theoverall quality of evidence to be very low (Appendix3). A sensitivity analysis restricted to studies with nomajor methodological limitations, included the studyby Hsairi et al.31 for which the OR was 3.0 (95% CI1.2–7.6).

Bladder cancerThe one included case–control study33 reported apotentially protective association between waterpipetobacco smoking and bladder cancer diagnosis of 0.8(95% CI 0.2–4.0) (Table 1). A stratified analysis by theamount of cigarette smoking suggested a potentialinteraction between waterpipe and cigarette smokingbut the CI overlapped and no interaction test wasreported. An interaction test we ran was statisticallynot significant (P¼ 0.55). We judged the overall qual-ity of evidence to be very low (Appendix 3).

Oesophageal cancerThe one study assessing oesophageal cancer diagnosiswas a case–control study (Table 1).17 The reported ORfor the association of waterpipe tobacco smoking withoesophageal cancer diagnosis was 1.85 (95% CI 0.95–3.58). We judged the overall quality of evidence to below (Appendix 3).

Nasopharyngeal cancerThe one included study was a case–control study(Table 1). The OR for the association of waterpipetobacco smoking with nasopharyngeal cancer was

0.49 (95% CI 0.20–1.23). We judged the overall qual-ity of evidence to be very low (Appendix 3).

Oral dysplasiaThe one included study was a cross-sectionalstudy that recruited exclusively subjects who prac-ticed ‘takhzeen al-qat’, i.e. a practice that is distinctfrom waterpipe smoking and consists of chewinga green-leaved plant for its stimulant effect(Table 1).35 The OR for the association of waterpipetobacco smoking with dysplasia of the oral mucosa onchewing side was 8.33 (95% CI 0.78–9.47). There wereno events observed in either group on non-chewingside. We judged the overall quality of evidence to bevery low (Appendix 3).

Pregnancy outcomesOf the three included studies, two were retrospectivecohort studies19,36 and one was a case–control study(Table 2).37 All three studies assessed lowbirth-weight. One study also reported on Apgarscore, pulmonary problems, malformations and peri-natal complications.19 The pooled OR for the associa-tion of waterpipe tobacco smoking with lowbirth-weight was 2.12 (95% CI 1.08–4.18; I2

¼ 0%)(Figure 4). The reported OR for the association ofwaterpipe tobacco smoking with newborn pulmonaryproblems was 3.65 (95% CI 1.52, 8.75). The associa-tions were not significant for Apgar scores at 1 and 5min, malformations or perinatal complications. Wejudged the overall quality of evidence for pregnancyoutcomes to be low (Appendix 3).

Periodontal diseaseOf the five included studies,38–42 four were conductedin the same (or in a subgroup of the same) group ofparticipants (Table 3).39–42 These four studies werecross-sectional and evaluated the same outcome (i.e.periodontal disease) using different outcome mea-surement (periodontal bone height loss, plaqueindex and gingivitis, deepening of the sulci or pockets,vertical periodontal bone loss). We did not pool thefour related studies evaluating periodontal disease astheir data were derived from the same participants.Their results were consistent in showing a statisticallysignificant association of waterpipe tobacco smokingwith periodontal disease (OR¼ 3–5). We judged theoverall quality of evidence to be low (Appendix 3).

The fifth included study was a cohort study with7 days follow-up after surgical removal of mandibularthird molars and evaluated the outcome of drysocket.38 Dry socket, or alveolar osteitis, is the mostcommon complication following tooth extractions. Itis caused by the dislodgement of the blood clot at thesite of the tooth extraction, exposing underlying boneand nerves and causing increasing pain. The reportedRR for the association of waterpipe tobacco smoking

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842 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY

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with dry socket was 3.7 (P¼ 0.001). We judged theoverall quality of evidence to be low (Appendix 3).

Infectious diseaseWe identified three studies on hepatitis C. The threecross-sectional studies were conducted in Egypt andrestricted to male participants exposed to groupwaterpipe tobacco smoking (Table 4).22,43,44 Thepooled OR for the association of group waterpipetobacco with hepatitis C was 0.98 (95% CI 0.80–1.21; I2

¼ 0%) (Figure 5). We judged the overall qual-ity of evidence to be very low (Appendix 3).

We did not identify any eligible study assessing theassociation between waterpipe smoking and thetransmission of tuberculosis. We did identify tworeports of outbreak investigations suggesting an asso-ciation between tuberculosis and sharing tobaccowaterpipe23 and marijuana waterpipe.47

Respiratory illnessOne cross-sectional study evaluated the associationbetween waterpipe smoking and respiratory illness(defined as perennial rhinitis and including nasalcongestion and wheezing) (Table 5).45 The studyreported significant association of waterpipe tobacco

smoking (OR¼ 2.3; 95% CI 1.1–5.1) and of waterpipeand/or cigarette smoking (OR¼ 2.5; 95% CI 1.6–3.8)with respiratory illness. We judged the overall qualityof evidence to be very low (Appendix 3).

InfertilityOne case–control study evaluated the associationbetween waterpipe smoking and male factor infertility(based on semen analysis) (Table 5).46 The reportedOR for the association of waterpipe tobacco smokingwith male factor infertility was not statistically signif-icant (OR¼ 2.5; 95% CI 1.0–6.3). We judged the over-all quality of evidence to be very low (Appendix 3).

DiscussionWe systematically reviewed the medical literature forthe effects of waterpipe tobacco smoking on healthoutcomes. Based on the available evidence, waterpipetobacco smoking was significantly associated withlung cancer, respiratory illness, low birth-weight andperiodontal disease. It was not significantly associatedwith bladder cancer, nasopharyngeal cancer, oesopha-geal cancer, oral dysplasia or infertility but the CIs did

Study or Subgroup

Gupta 2001

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Total (95% CI)

Heterogeneity: Tau² = 0.00; Chi ² = 0.74, df = 3 (P = 0.86); I ² = 0%

Test for overall effect: Z = 3.09 (P = 0.002)

log[OR]

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OR

Harmful effect

Figure 3 Association between waterpipe tobacco smoking and lung cancer

Study or Subgroup

Aghamolaei 2007

Nuwayhid 1998

Tamim 2008

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Heterogeneity: Tau ² = 0.00; Chi ² = 1.19, df = 2 (P = 0.55); I ² = 0%

Test for overall effect: Z = 2.17 (P = 0.03)

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Figure 4 Association between waterpipe tobacco smoking and low birth-weight

THE EFFECTS OF WATERPIPE TOBACCO SMOKING ON HEALTH 843

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not exclude important associations. Smoking water-pipe in groups was not significantly associated withhepatitis C infection. The overall quality of evidencevaried from very low to low.

To our knowledge, this is the first meta-analysis ofstudies assessing the association of waterpipe smok-ing with health outcomes. While Knishkowy et al.24

reviewed the health effects of waterpipe tobaccosmoking, they did not use systematic methods, for-mally evaluate the quality of the evidence or use sta-tistical methods to pool the results across studies. Themain strength of our study is the use of the CochraneCollaboration methodology for conducting systematicreviews, i.e. using a very sensitive and comprehensivesearch strategy, a duplicate and independent selectionprocess, a duplicate and independent data abstractionprocess, and a rigorous appraisal of the methodolog-ical quality of included studies. We also used theGRADE approach to rate the overall quality of evi-dence for each outcome.

For most of the outcomes of interest the evidencewas either lacking, indirect or of lower quality. Interms of indirectness, lung cancer studies were con-ducted mostly in China and India where tobacco istypically unprocessed and burned directly by charcoal.The practice of waterpipe smoking that is involved inthe recent global epidemic involves tobacco that isprocessed and flavoured and indirectly heated by thecharcoal. In terms of quality, the one methodologicalstudy limitation that affected our rating of the qualityof evidence for most outcomes was measurementbias, which has been reported in similar systematicreviews.48 In fact, only one study used a standardizedexposure measurement tool in spite of the fact thatthe practice of waterpipe smoking can vary widely.Variables include the quantity of tobacco used, thetype of tobacco used, the concomitant use of othersubstances, the frequency of smoking sessions, andthe length of sessions, the number of years of smok-ing. In addition, no study reported using a standard-ized measurement tool for other forms of tobacco

smoking in spite of the variety of these forms andthe need to account for passive smoking and pastsmoking history.

The other methodological study limitation thataffected our rating of the quality of evidence formany outcomes was the inappropriate handling ofconfounding, particularly for other forms of tobaccosmoking and for factors such as radon exposureamong miners as a risk factor for lung cancer.Furthermore, although many studies reported sepa-rate ORs for waterpipe and cigarette smoking, nonereported tests for interactions between these twoforms of smoking. This type of information isneeded given that a significant proportion of water-pipe smokers also smoke cigarettes.11,49

In spite of the many methodological study limita-tions for lung cancer and pregnancy outcomes, thefindings showed consistency (i.e. the low heterogene-ity) across studies. Similarly, the lack of associationbetween smoking waterpipe in groups and hepatitis Cinfection was characterized by the consistency acrossstudies and a relatively narrow CI. These findings areconsistent with current pathophysiological knowledgeof the spread of hepatitis C by blood-to-blood contact.While the lack of evidence for an association betweenwaterpipe smoking with bladder cancer, nasopharyn-geal cancer, oral dysplasia and infertility could reflecta true absence of association, it could also beexplained by lack of power to detect any existingassociation given their relatively wide CIs. Indeed,the lack of studies and of insufficient data on suchlong-term health effects is related to the short epide-miological time frame of the recent waterpipeepidemic.

The one study that reported on coronary heartdisease was excluded because of its publicationexclusively as an abstract.18 The quality of the evi-dence from that study was very low and the ORwas 2.2 (95% CI 0.9–5.4) for ever smokers and 0.7(95% CI 0.3–1.9) for current smokers compared withnever smokers.

Study or Subgroup

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Figure 5 Association between waterpipe tobacco smoking and hepatitis C infection

THE EFFECTS OF WATERPIPE TOBACCO SMOKING ON HEALTH 851

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852 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY

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This study indicates the need for more research, asthe World Health Organization (WHO) has alreadyadvised.50 The overall quality of evidence for the dif-ferent outcomes was mostly low, limiting our confi-dence in the results. There is a need for high-qualitycohort studies to identify and quantify with confi-dence all the health effects of waterpipe smokingand to explore its interaction with other forms ofsmoking. The high quality of future studies willdepend on the use of standardized exposure measure-ment tools,49 another area of research need.

The study also has important implications for publichealth practice. Public health policy makers have todeal with suggestive but generally weak evidence ofthe association of waterpipe tobacco smoking withdeleterious health outcomes. One approach could beto prioritize public health resources to deal with otherpublic health crises (such as youth cigarette smoking)

for which the evidence is much stronger, while await-ing further evidence regarding waterpipe smoking.Another approach could be to devote the necessaryresources to control at a relatively early stage therapid growth of the waterpipe trend. Whatever thedecision policy makers make, it should be based onan objective consideration of the current available evi-dence in the proper public health context.

AcknowledgementsThe authors thank Ms Ann Grifasi for her adminis-trative assistance and Dr Ranime Saliba for her assis-tance. Those acknowledged have confirmed theiragreement.

Conflict of interest: None declared.

KEY MESSAGES

� Waterpipe tobacco smoking is possibly associated with a number of deleterious health outcomesincluding lung cancer, respiratory illness, low birth-weight and periodontal disease.

� There is a need for higher quality evidence to determine with confidence all the health effects ofwaterpipe tobacco smoking

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Appendix 1 Electronic search strategiesMEDLINE (1950 onward)

Waterpipe�.mp.‘‘water pipe�’’.mp.shisha�.mp.sheesha�.mp.hooka�.mp.huqqa�.mp.guza�.mp.goza�.mp.narghil�.mp.nargil�.mp.arghil�.mpargil�.mp(hubbl� adj3 bubbl�).mp.or/1–13

EMBASE (1988 onward)Waterpipe�.mp.‘‘water pipe�’’.mp.shisha�.mp.sheesha�.mp.

hooka�.mp.huqqa�.mp.guza�.mp.goza�.mp.narghil�.mp.nargil�.mp.arghil�.mpargil�.mp(hubbl� adj3 bubbl�).mp.or/1-13

ISI the Web of Science(waterpipe� OR ‘‘water pipe�’’ OR shisha� ORsheesha� OR hooka� OR huqqa� OR guza� OR goza�

OR narghil� OR nargil� OR argil� OR arghil� OR(hubbl� SAME bubbl�)) AND (smoking OR smokeOR health OR disease OR cancer� OR malignan� ORlung� OR pulmonary OR heart OR cardiac OR vascularOR stroke) (in Title or Topic)

Appendix 2 GRADE approach for rating the quality of evidence

Factors that lower the quality ofevidence

(1) Limitations of design� Selection bias� Measurement bias for risk factor (validity of

risk factor measurement instrument, blinding

of risk status data collector and blinding ofrisk status adjudicator)

� Measurement bias for outcome (validity ofoutcome measurement instrument, blinding ofoutcome data collector and blinding outcomeadjudicator)

� Inappropriate handling of confounding(stratification, adjustment)

Quality is first assignedbased on study design

Quality of evidence Quality is lowered ifa Quality is raised ifa

Randomized trials ! 4 ¼ High Limitations of design Large effect�1 Serious þ 1 Large�2 Very serious þ 2 Very large

3 ¼ Moderate Inconsistency Dose response�1 Serious þ 1 Evidence of a gradient�2 Very seriousIndirectness All plausible confounding

Observational study ! 2 ¼ Low �1 Serious þ 1 Would reduce a demonstrated effect, or�2 Very seriousImprecision þ 1 Would suggest a spurious effect

when results show no effect�1 Serious1 ¼ Very low �2 Very serious

Publication bias�1 Likely�2 Very likely

The quality of evidence reflects the extent of confidence that an estimate of effect is correct.a1, move up or down one grade (for example from high to intermediate); 2, move up or down two grades (for example from highto low).

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� Attrition (for cohort studies)(2) Inconsistency

Inconsistency in the estimates of the associationacross studies (i.e. heterogeneity) suggests truedifferences in underlying cause–effect relation-ship that may arise from differences in:� populations (e.g. different association in

populations with differing other specific expo-sures or other genetic profiles);

� risk factor (e.g. larger association with higherexposure or different associations with varyingforms of the same exposure);

� outcomes (e.g. different associations with dif-ferent length of follow-up because of dimin-ishing or increasing association with time).

When heterogeneity exists, but investigators failto identify a plausible explanation, the quality ofevidence should be downgraded by one or twolevels, depending on the magnitude of the incon-sistency in the results.

(3) IndirectnessThe question being addressed by the authors of asystematic review is different from the availableevidence regarding:� population (e.g. general population vs popu-

lation of miners);� risk factor (e.g. cigarette use vs pipe use);� outcome (e.g. intra-uterine growth vs low

birth-weight)(4) Imprecision

Results are imprecise when studies include rela-tively few patients and few events and thus havewide CIs around the estimate of the effect. The95% CI (or alternative estimate of precision)

around the pooled or best estimate of associationincludes both negligible association and appreci-able benefit or appreciable harm.

(5) Publication biasPublication bias is a systematic underestimate oran overestimate of the underlying beneficial orharmful effect due to the selective publicationof studies (publication bias). That is, investiga-tors fail to report studies they have undertaken(typically those that show no effect).

Factors that increase the quality of evidence

(1) Large magnitude of effectWhen methodologically strong observational stu-dies yield large or very large and consistent esti-mates of the magnitude of association, we maybe confident about the results. The larger themagnitude of effect, the stronger becomes theevidence.

(2) Dose–response gradientA gradient dose–response may increase our con-fidence in the findings and thus enhance theassigned quality of evidence.

(3) Plausible confounding, which would reduce ademonstrated effectOn occasion, all plausible confounders or biasesfrom observational studies would result in anunderestimate of the association estimate. If,for instance, only sick patients have an exposure,yet they still fare better, it is likely that the expo-sure effect is even larger than the data suggest.

Appendix 3 Rating the quality of evidence for different associationusing the GRADE framework

Outcome Factors lowering the rating of quality Factors raising the rating ofquality

Finalrating

Lung cancerdiagnosis

Limitations of design: four of five studies didnot appropriately deal with confounding

Dose response: two studiesreported statistically signifi-cant dose–response relation-ships in terms of the totalamount of exposure andduration of exposure

Very low

Indirectness: most studies likely usedunprocessed tobacco burned directly bycharcoal

Lung cancermortality

Limitations of design: included study did notappropriately deal with confounding

None Very low

Indirectness: study likely used unprocessedtobacco burned directly by charcoal

Bladdercancerdiagnosis

Limitations of design: use of prevalent cases None Very lowImprecision

None Low

(continued)

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Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

� The Author 2010; all rights reserved. Advance Access publication 25 March 2010

International Journal of Epidemiology 2010;39:857–859

doi:10.1093/ije/dyq054

Commentary: The waterpipe—a globalepidemic or a passing fadWasim Maziak1,2*

1School of Public Health, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, USA and 2Syrian Center for Tobacco Studies, Aleppo, Syria

*Corresponding author. Browning Hall 112, 3820 DeSoto Avenue, Memphis 38152-3340, TN, USA. E-mail: [email protected]

Accepted 15 February 2010

Six years ago, we published in Tobacco Control the firstcomprehensive review about the waterpipe (also

known as shisha, hookah, arghile and narghile) inresponse to what seemed to be a burgeoning global

Oesophagealcancer

Dose response: the includedstudy reported statisticallysignificant dose response rela-tionship in terms of intensityof use

Imprecision

Nasopharyng-eal cancer

Limitations of design: investigators usedmatching and adjusted the analysis for anumber of confounding factors but not forother types of smoking

None Very low

ImprecisionOral dysplasia Limitations of design: not reporting dealing

with confounding factors; also the analysiswas stratified by chewing side (i.e. analy-sis of outcome occurring on the chewingside separate from the analysis of outcomeoccurring on the non-chewing side)

None Very low

ImprecisionPregnancy

outcomesNone None Low

Periodontaldisease

Limitations of design: included studies par-tially dealt with confounding factors (threeadjusted for age only and one adjusted forage and dental care habit)

Dose response: two studiesfound a statistically significantdose response relationship interms of total amount ofexposure

Low

Dry socket Limitations in design: study did not ade-quately deal with confounding factors

Dose response: statistically sig-nificant dose response rela-tionship in terms of totalamount of exposure

Low

Hepatitis Cinfection

Limitations in design: study reported discre-pancies between the results of MEIA andPCR

None Very low

Respiratoryillness

Limitations in design: study did not ade-quately deal with confounding factors

None Very low

Infertility NoneImprecision

None Very low

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